<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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A cash rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seems more likely now than it has in years, according to Finder, Australia’s most visited comparison site.
All 28 experts and economists in Finder’s <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/tJ9mCD1v12hB883nI54aSQ?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/tJ9mCD1v12hB883nI54aSQ?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762488000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGD0AHNNDFlCBL10yngE2qDdo6OcQ">RBA cash rate survey</a> are expecting a hold at 1.50% on Tuesday, but their predictions swung dramatically about the direction of the next move to come. For the past two years, about 80% of experts have predicted a hike as the next cash rate move. This month, only 40% (11/28) did so. Stephen Koukoulas, managing director at Market Economics said he could see a change happen in as little as a month. "[The RBA] will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing.  “It may wait a month or two before acting on that bias," Koukoulas said. Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said of the panelists who put a date on their rate drop, predictions were pretty evenly spread throughout the year from March to November.  “This is the most dramatic shift I have seen in four years of running our cash rate survey.  “Economists are now swinging significantly in favour of a cut this year, but nobody can agree on exactly when this will happen,” Cooke said. <img src="https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/jiQUG11OCkOuDP24-WepAOoFyrIk9BDpJgv2AKWF_icw0Ye8ix0d5ISsYpWprAnHuVcasZ_fHx4aki29ZKq7UToHuGO5TTl9hM5aYykkShFrjcDhrMhuBikrl8cdYTAs-5ILoyi0PMSCulAN5UCcItvUGC6yPd4m1y4=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/5db05eb6-ce37-4c6f-a434-8ecf89c51a59.png" width="600" height="355"> Cooke said that the severity of the housing downturn in recent months was the top reason cited by experts who changed their prediction.  “Along with housing concerns, inflation is still sitting below two per cent, so another cut may be needed to stimulate the economy.  “The only issue with further cuts is that it reduces the ability of the RBA to adapt to softer economic conditions in the future,” Cooke said.  Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker has also seen a significant shift.  Positivity regarding employment in Australia fell from 56% in December to just 29% in February.  Economists indicated that, though unemployment is still low, a weakening of job prospects looms on the horizon.  Koukoulas said the economy is on a slower growth path,  judging by GDP.  “Looking at many economic factors, it looks like growth will be weaker in the next quarter.  “The labour market tends to lag behind the greater economy by a couple of quarters. “This trend – combined with lower job vacancy advertising numbers – indicates a risk that employment will be weaker in the first half of this year versus previous years,” Koukoulas said.        <img src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/5_PXx_mfrsOnYwep55QO0q4W2B8Ghup7SDytJG92y9i9uMgMlr3E06ZaOfSYGdSC_9a_nRaOLIrB4VT0mi6Ll6r5UhoQpSOJp2x40ohsTmrypEMuXbtqr5FYaiKHo121x-Qk4I-tbxjp4VJaGjMImWWZii9dJWoslZs=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/82b136ff-b0b6-4e3b-bfa6-d84b2ff9d648.png" width="550" height="382"> Cooke said the results aren’t all gloom and doom. “With house prices continuing to tumble, the outlook for housing affordability remains strong. “It’s true some lenders are making out-of-cycle rate hikes – we’ve seen 96 i<a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/rzkpCE8w82hWZZpgFp6ssI?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/rzkpCE8w82hWZZpgFp6ssI?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762489000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKpyCRSjUveLfLU96MBZVAB7QunQ">n the </a><a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/lMzUCGv0v2sJzzA0CQwB-C?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/lMzUCGv0v2sJzzA0CQwB-C?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762489000&amp;usg=AFQjCNExrbXqujboxTfDArQUy2YXJpYoFw">loans we compare on Finder</a> so far this year – but not all banks are raising rates. In fact we’ve also seen 69 lenders cut rates. “The bottom line is if you’re looking to buy now, it’s overwhelmingly a buyer’s market. Use your bargaining power and look for value before you buy,” Cooke said.       <img src="https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/kpJqBzCgbPeX5NZzFJOP3U_BaptvJcaG5I4ZczF0wQ5Lmyd8JHTObAXDUApObu4ZJZxZYeutkcvEDGEe40Zd85JDnCP5d4y-d53RaSZvNy-eU8l0az_BfD1yBrA6H92JEIEoXUdCvR4y5yIfyoODMhkAqYTaWCCqwrs=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/ede2ba44-596b-4d3d-b21e-79a352b72bf9.png" width="550" height="358"> Here’s what our experts had to say: Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "While economic data has generally been soft since the last Board meeting in December, it's unlikely to have been weak enough yet to prompt the RBA to cut rates, particularly given that its bias has still been to raise rates." Alison Booth, ANU: "The fundamentals have not yet altered sufficiently to warrant [the RBA] to change." John Hewson, ANU: "Data uncertainty and concern economy is slowing." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: "Underlying inflation is below the low end of the RBA's target band and underlying economic momentum appears to be deteriorating." Ben Udy, Capital Economics: "The housing downturn is becoming more severe and will weigh on the economy over 2019. But given the labour market remains in good shape for now, we suspect the RBA will remain on hold for the time being." Michael Blythe, CBA: "Reasonable economic backdrop says next move is probably up.  But low inflation means no hurry to act." Trent Wiltshire, Domain: "The RBA is very reluctant to cut rates. Despite some weak economic data since the December meeting the RBA will maintain a fairly optimistic outlook for the economy." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: "Growth is still likely to be above trend." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: "There is little net direction from indicators, with an overall bias to more support being needed given the out of cycle increases of rates by institutions." Tim Nelson, Griffith University: "There is no strong case for an adjustment of monetary policy." Peter Haller, Heritage Bank: "Economic conditions have not materially changed since the previous RBA meeting in December and there is no basis for a change at this time." Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association: "GDP remains solid. Unemployment low and no evidence of inflationary pressure." Michael Witts, ING: "Despite the increased market talk about the prospect of an easier stance from the RBA, if this scenario is to emerge it is likely to be around mid year. Underlying economic data remains positive for the time being." Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun: "No reason to move rates at this stage." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: "Some economists now believe the next official rate movement will be down instead of up. The Reserve Bank will need firm justification as a move either way will be heavily scrutinised. We don’t see any justification to adjust rates at this time." Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics: "It will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing. It may wait a month or two before acting on that bias." John Caelli, ME Bank: "Given low unemployment and wages are starting to rise, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut rates in the near term. Likewise, with house prices continuing to fall, tightening credit, and CPI below the target band, a rise in the cash rate is also unlikely. It’s wait and see for now." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: "The jobs growth figures for December will give the RBA comfort at a time of slower local economic growth and difficult world economic circumstances. With no wages growth and our challenging property markets and the real likelihood of further falls in property values especially in Sydney and Melbourne, the RBA will now have to seriously consider the option of lowering rates this year." Mark Crosby, Monash University: "While the international situation is deteriorating, there is no reason to move rates at the February meeting." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice: "As wages continue to flat line and spending appears to be fuelled by a mix of credit and savings, consumers may be entering 2019 with a slightly pessimistic view. Continued low inflation, that’s sitting below Governor Lowe’s target; and the softening property market coupled with the tightened lending environment, only adds to disappointing Australian GDP/economic and global concerns stemming from Trump’s trade war with China. The upcoming federal election also adds a feeling of stasis to lacklustre economic data. In February, a myriad of signposts continue to suggest rates remaining on hold but down the track the next move in the cash rate could well be downward. However this could impact on the Aussie dollar, giving the RBA a lot of big issues to consider as the New Year kicks off." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: "Although recent data is clearly increasing the chances of a near-term cut in official rates, recent statements by the RBA continue to indicate an ongoing conservative stance on rate settings. This however is likely to change if GDP data to be released on March 6 is again disappointing. In those circumstances the RBA will be motivated to cut rates  - particularly prior to the onset of a likely lengthy federal election campaign." Matthew Peter, QIC: "The market is now pricing the next move of the RBA to be a 0.25% cut sometime in early 2020 as China slows and the housing market continues to correct. These headwinds are yet to derail the economy, as shown by the strong December labour market data. The RBA will stay on hold until 2020, but failing a crash in China and the housing market, the next move in rates will be up." Noel Whittaker, QUT: "There is no way they will increase them with the housing market the way it is – and I can't see them reducing them." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: "Economic data coming out is still too mixed to make a decision to move rates. While CPI remains low, and GDP growth in September was lower than expected, unemployment is now at just 5%. In Sydney, it is at its lowest rate since 1974." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L: "The economy is not as strong as expected.  Also I believe the RBA is waiting for Royal Commission Report to be released." Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "There continues to be strength in the labour market. However, the downside risks for the global economy has increased. The Australian economy is also not growing as strongly as previously thought. The balance of these risks suggests the RBA could tone down its stance of the next move being up but to remain on hold for some time. However, not likely to the extent that the RBA will be ready to lower rates." Richard Holden, UNSW: "No chance they raise given housing and inflation."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA to hold rates in February, but 2019 cut prospect looms

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Economists expect the cash rate to remain steady for yet another year even though inflation is on the floor. 
The Reserve Bank kicks off its first meeting for the year next Tuesday facing the same dilemma it did throughout last year.
It hasn’t got easier.
The bank has a very public, fairly clear objective: to keep inflation <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">between 2% and 3%</a>. But it keeps missing it. Over and over and over again, and on the downside.
As the following chart shows, inflation has been below the bank’s target band for nearly all of the past four years.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256541/original/file-20190131-42594-1p06f0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<hr>
During his decade in office, the previous governor Glenn Stephens achieved an average inflation rate of 2.46% – almost bang in the centre of the target band.
During his subsequent two and half years in the job, Philip Lowe has averaged just 1.87%. At no point during Lowe’s term of office has the average fallen within the target band. The rate for December, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0">released on Wednesday</a>, was 1.8%.
Next Wednesday Lowe will make an unusual address to the <a href="https://www.npc.org.au/speakers/philip-lowe-npc-sydney-address/" target="_blank">National Press Club</a>, during which he will outline his thoughts about the year ahead.
It is a year which The Conversation’s forecasting panel predicted will be free of interest rate adjustments, making it a record 40 months without a rate move – Lowe’s entire term in office.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256590/original/file-20190131-112389-hml5ue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256590/original/file-20190131-112389-hml5ue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<hr>
<h2>The RBA has more than one target</h2>
Although the inflation target is an important part of the Reserve Bank’s mandate, it is also asked to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">focus on other things</a>. Among them are GDP growth, employment, and (probably less explicitly) the Australian dollar and house prices.
And therein lies the problem. Unless the rate moves needed to meet all those objectives point in the same direction, the bank needs to make trade-offs, or sideline one or more of its objectives.
A classic principle of economics is that a policy-maker needs one instrument (or policy tool) for each objective. It is called the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/2282568?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents" target="_blank">Tinbergen Rule</a>, after the 1969 Nobel Laureate.
The bank has four or five objectives, but really only one tool – the cash rate, stuck at 1.5% since Lowe took the job.
Throw in the ability to partially shape market expectations through speeches by Lowe and Deputy Governor Guy Debelle (so-called “open mouth” operations), and maybe it has two.
Since Lowe took office, the casualty of this imbalance between instruments and objectives has been the inflation target. And it’s unlikely to change for some time.
<h2>So why is inflation so low?</h2>
Australia is not alone. Advanced economies around the world have had several years of low wages growth, low productivity growth, and low inflation. Populations are ageing, less keen on spending, and have a glut of excess savings.
Add to this the fact that technology and international trade have made a whole range of goods probably permanently cheaper and it’s hard to find inflationary pressure.
Potentially making things worse in Australia is the decline in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne eating into consumer confidence and with it, spending. <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-so-far-its-more-of-a-house-price-blip-than-a-bust-in-the-making-109568" target="_blank">With well over half of the economy coming from private spending, already soft consumer spending could be hit further.</a>
So far, RBA Governor Philip Lowe has been doing an admirable impression of Mr Micawber, in the Charles Dickens novel David Copperfield. When it comes to inflation, he is hoping “something will turn up”. But it hasn’t, even with historically low levels of unemployment.
Worse still, it doesn’t even seem to really be ticking up in the United States, <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506" target="_blank">despite the lowest year-end unemployment rate since 1969</a>.
<h2>And why does it target inflation?</h2>
The bank targets inflation in order to maintain credibility.
The high levels of inflation in the 1970s and ‘80s – despite quite high levels of unemployment – led to the realisation that expectations had a lot to do with it.
Put simply, if people believe prices are going to rise sharply they will demand steep wage rises, which will cause prices to rise sharply. It becomes a “wage-price spiral”.
Macroeconomists and central bankers realised that a credible commitment to keep inflation low would remove the need for the large wage rises, cutting off the spiral before it got going.
The bank describes the rationale for its inflation target <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target" target="_blank">this way</a>:
The Governor and the Treasurer have agreed that the appropriate target for monetary policy in Australia is to achieve an inflation rate of 2–3%, on average, over time. This is a rate of inflation sufficiently low that it does not materially distort economic decisions in the community. Seeking to achieve this rate, on average, provides discipline for monetary policy decision-making, and serves as an anchor for private-sector inflation expectations.
That’s been the logic for the past 25 years. We have certainly done away with inflationary spirals. We are in the age of secular stagnation, with an excess of savings chasing too little spending. A world where, since the turn of this century, robust growth has only really been possible when accompanied with financial bubbles–first in dot-coms, then in housing.
<h2>So what’s a central banker to do?</h2>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-its-time-to-discuss-a-new-framework-for-central-banking-101978" target="_blank">There is an active debate</a> among <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-dg-2018-04-12" target="_blank">central bankers</a> and leading macroeconomists about whether to abandon the inflation targeting framework.
Luminaries like former US Treasury Secretary <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-the-fed-needs-a-new-monetary-policy-framework/" target="_blank">Larry Summers</a> argue that inflation targets are, <a href="http://shakespeare.mit.edu/hamlet/hamlet.1.4" target="_blank">to borrow from Hamlet</a>, “more honour’d in the breach than the observance”.
Right now Lowe faces a real dilemma. If he doesn’t cut rates, the inflation target will become more and more of a joke. It will add to pressure on him to articulate a new monetary policy framework for a new secular-stagnation era.
If he does, he risks re-inflating the housing bubble, boosting already sky-high household debt, and giving himself even less wiggle room if a recession hits.
On Tuesday he’ll leave the cash rate at 1.50%. And on the first Tuesday of the next month, and the the next, and the one after that…
But I think he’ll begin serious internal discussions about a new monetary policy framework, and the mechanics of getting into (and out of) a massive bond-buying program (otherwise known as quantitative easing or printing money) if needed to ward off the next recession should the cash rate remain or get so low he can’t cut it further.
He might have already started. He might drop further hints on Wednesday.
<hr>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Yet another year of steady rates: Richard Holden

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ING, the fifth-biggest home loan lender in Australia, has lifted variable interest rates for all customers by 0.15 percentage points.
The hike will affect more than 100,000 borrowers from February 7, coming after ING also lifted variable rates on investment home loans by 0.15 percentage points in September and for owner-occupiers in July, by 0.1 percentage points. 
For owner-occupier borrowers paying principal and interest, the advertised rate will rise from 3.78 percent to 3.93 percent.
Those with a $300,000 30-year mortgage, face an increase from $1394 to $1420 a month.
A spokeswoman for the bank said: “We review our rates regularly and occasionally we need to increase them to ensure we can adjust to market changes while continuing to be best placed to provide our customers with simple, effective banking products.”
Sally Tindall, a spokeswoman for financial services broker RateCity, said ING’s rate hike was “disappointing” for customers.
The Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday when it is expected to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent.
 
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ING raises rates again

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<div>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
</div>
The December Quarter CPI printed 0.5%qtr, compared to the market median of 0.4% and Westpac’s forecast for 0.3%. At two decimal places, the rise in the CPI was 0.53%qtr, so a hard 0.5%. With base effects, the annual rate has eased back to 1.8%yr compared to 1.9%yr in Q3, 2.1%yr in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1. But with another sub 0.6% print, the six month annualised pace is down to 1.2%yr (using seasonally adjusted data – raw CPI six month annualised is 2.0%yr but this incorporates a seasonally stronger pace in H2). Inflation continues to bump along just at, or just under, the bottom of the RBA’s target band.
Following the December quarter 2017 CPI, we argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been as fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot. While this report does suggest we have at least found a bottom in the disinflationary pulse, it is still too early to call an inflationary pulse is underway and there are some hints in the December 2018 report that the current scenario has much longer to run.
The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4%qtr meeting market expectations. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.43% while the weighted median lifted 0.36%. The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed 1.8%yr which is the same as the September quarter print.
Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation is 1.8%yr which is well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace June 2016.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/JanFeb19/Dec2018CPI.jpg" alt="CPi">
<div>
A small number of upside surprises but nothing that changes the fundamental picture
</div>
Some standouts in the quarter – on the positive side there was a stronger rise in alcohol &amp; tobacco (3.2% vs 2.8% expected), a surprising rise in utilities (0.1% vs –0.3% expected), a smaller fall in auto fuel (–2.5 vs –4.2% expected), a surprising jump in household contents &amp; services (0.5% vs –0.5% expected) and a stronger bump in holiday travel (2.6% vs 1.6% expected all due to strong domestic holiday prices). On the downside, food rose just 0.9% (1.2% expected) due to a smaller than expected rise in fresh fruit &amp; vegetables, clothing &amp; footwear fell –0.2% (a small rise was expected). Everything else came in close to expectations or just slightly stronger.
We think is worth noting the continued modest gains for housing expenditure. Housing costs overall rose as expected (0.2%) rents rose 0.2% (we thought they would be flat), dwelling prices rose just 0.4% (as we expected) while utilities rose 0.1% vs our –0.3% expected. The surprise in utilities was the jump in electricity prices that outweighed the normal seasonal fall in gas prices. 
There remains a number of near term negative risks for both rents and dwelling purchase costs in NSW and Victoria. Given that rents and dwelling purchases are worth around 15% of the CPI on their own, this is significant for headline inflation, and even more so for core, where their weight is somewhat higher.
Tradables fell 0.3% in the December quarter. The tradable goods component fell –0.1% due to automotive fuel (-2.5%), audio, visual &amp; comp equipment (-3.3%) and wine (-1.9%). The tradable services component fell 0.7% due to international holiday travel &amp; accommodation (-0.8%).
Non-tradables component rose 0.9% in the December quarter. The non-tradable goods component rose 1.5%, due to the excise tax increase for tobacco (9.4%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.6%, due to domestic holiday travel &amp; accommodation (6.2%).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/JanFeb19/DecCPIComp.jpg" alt="CPICop">
<div>
Low inflation remains embedded in the economy
</div>
For the first time in two years inflation forecasters have underestimated the quarterly rise in the CPI. Does this signal a turnaround and the return of a more sustainable inflationary pulse? We don’t think so. While there are some isolated inflationary pressures; tobacco prices are clear standouts as well as embryonic indicators that the disinflationary pulse in retail, particularly in the household goods &amp; services and domestic holidays &amp; travel, may be ending. But, we are still seeing weakness in clothing and footwear while the moderation in housing costs (rents and dwelling purchases in particular) is a significant offset. We are, however, watching the surprising bump in electricity prices to see if this continues.
As housing has a significant group weighting in the CPI (15%) it has a meaningful impact on the estimates of both inflation and core inflation. As such, with core inflation below the bottom of the RBA’s target band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
Justin Smirk is senior economist at Westpac.
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An upside surprise but inflation remains well contained: Justin Smirk

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Australian inflation continues declining: Shane Oliver

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NAB has caved to funding pressures and hiked home loan rates just months after they said they were keeping their variables rates on hold.
NAB chief Andrew Thorburn said on September 10, “we are listening and acting differently”.
“We need to rebuild the trust of our customers, and by holding our NAB standard variable rate longer, we help our customers for longer,” Mr Thorburn he stated.
NAB is lifting rates by 0.12 per cent for owner occupiers paying principal and interest, and 0.16 per cent for investors and interest only customers, effective 31 January 2019.
The average NAB customer on a discounted variable rate will now pay $25 extra per month, almost $300 annually.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes%202.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said, “NAB tried to put their customers first, but it appears profit has won out in the end."
“NAB’s previous decision to keep rates on hold was designed to win back the trust of their customers. It was also a play to get new customers in the door."
“The strategy appears to have worked. In October 2018, NAB surpassed ANZ in terms of home loan market share. They now have the third largest home loan book, according to APRA data."
“Already this year we’ve seen BoQ and Virgin Money hike rates due to cost of funding pressures. Now that NAB has hiked as well, others are likely to follow in its shadow,” she concluded.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/24/NAB%20rate%20hikes.JPG" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
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NAB hikes variable rates after saying they wouldn't less than 20 weeks ago

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ASIC has banned Hobart financial planner Matthew Geappen from providing financial services for a period of five years.
ASIC’s concerns related to Mr Geappen’s practice of advising his clients to switch from one insurance product to another which allowed him to generate commissions from insurance providers.
ASIC also had reason to believe Mr Geappen was not adequately trained or competent to provide financial services and was not of good fame or character.
ASIC found that Mr Geappen failed to:
<ul>
<li>act in the best interests of his clients;</li>
<li>give advice that was appropriate; and</li>
<li>give priority to the interests of his clients over his own interests.</li>
</ul>
Mr Geappen was an authorised representative of Financial Wisdom Limited (FWL) from 18 December 2006 to 8 December 2016. He provided financial product advice in respect of superannuation, insurance and income protection products. FWL is a subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 
Mr Geappen has exercised his right to appeal to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal for a review of ASIC’s decision.
ASIC’s action was in response to information it received from the licensee, FWL, regarding concerns relating to Mr Geappen’s advice and advice processes.
The banning of Mr Geappen is part of ASIC’s Wealth Management Project.
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Hobart financial planner banned for five years

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The latest figures put Australia near the top when it comes to company tax collections, even though our total tax take isn’t particularly high.
In international tax circles, as in other areas, we often talk about American exceptionalism.
But these days, it is becoming increasingly clear that Australia is exceptional in taxation, among members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and indeed, compared to countries around the globe.
The OECD has just produced its <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/corporate-tax-statistics-database.htm" target="_blank">first-ever detailed comparison</a> of company tax collections and rates and effective rates around the world. The “statutory” or headline rate comparisons cover 94 countries. The harder to calculate “effective” tax comparisons cover 88 countries.
The bad news – for companies – is that Australia is close to the top among the 94 countries, and in one of the measures, the effective marginal company tax rate (more on this later), third from the top.
Click <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253830/original/file-20190115-152971-1oevmqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253830/original/file-20190115-152971-1oevmqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253830/original/file-20190115-152971-1oevmqr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Interestingly, in another recent report, the OECD shows that Australia clearly falls into the “low tax” group among OECD countries, with a tax-to-GDP ratio <a href="http://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-2522770x.htm">below 25%</a>. But within that context we rely heavily on company tax.
Company tax revenues are high
Australia’s A$80 billion in company tax collections in 2016 was about 4.6% of GDP, ranking Australia twelfth out of the 88 countries for which the OECD had information.
Company tax accounted for 16% of Australia’s total tax revenue, the 27th highest out of the 88 countries.
The statistics have oddities. Luxembourg and Switzerland also have a high share of company tax revenues because they attract so much global capital. In contrast, the overall high-taxing countries of France, Denmark and Finland collect much less revenue from company tax.
Click <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253831/original/file-20190115-152968-kcvom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253831/original/file-20190115-152968-kcvom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253831/original/file-20190115-152968-kcvom4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
Headline rates are heading down
Corporate tax rates have been trending down for at least two decades. The Trump tax changes in 2017 that lowered the US federal rate to 21% was the latest dramatic change, but the United Kingdom now has a rate of 19% and many European countries sit at or below 25%. The change since 2000 has been dramatic and the global average is now 20%.
In our Asian region, the average headline corporate tax rate is 15%. As a result of <a href="https://www.oecd.org/investment/investment-policy/Towards-smarter-use-of-tax-incentives-in-Southeast-Asia.pdf" target="_blank">tax incentives available around Asia</a>, companies involved in manufacturing and supply chains often face a lower, or zero, rate.
This trend was identified by the Henry Tax Review in 2009, which recommended transitioning to a 25% rate, which today could be financed with a 1% increase in Australia’s GST rate, according to <a href="https://www.policyforum.net/australia-can-afford-cut-company-tax/" target="_blank">recent modelling by Chris Murphy</a>.
Click <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253833/original/file-20190115-152983-16aslqh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=524&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253833/original/file-20190115-152983-16aslqh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""> 
What matters are effective tax rates
The OECD also compares effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs), and effective average tax rates (EATRs), for corporate investment. These combine the headline rate with the rules for corporate investment, depreciation allowances for plant and equipment, and intellectual property investment.
In theory, investors choose to invest based on the expected after-tax rate of return, taking into account tax breaks and special rules.
The EMTR determines the tax cost of expanding an existing investment: putting one more dollar into that investment. In the EMTR ranking, Australia is third highest.
Countries that provide a tax break known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-government-can-pay-for-its-proposed-company-tax-cuts-92739" target="_blank">allowance for corporate equity</a>, including Belgium and Italy, actually have negative tax rates on increased investment.
The EATR reflects the tax rate that would be paid on an entire new investment. In the EATR ranking, Australia is, again, near the top in ninth place, at 30% – the same as our statutory rate.
Click <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253834/original/file-20190115-152980-11hzrfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253834/original/file-20190115-152980-11hzrfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253834/original/file-20190115-152980-11hzrfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Unlike many other countries, Australia has few tax incentives. We do not have a low tax regime for intellectual property or accelerated depreciation for new equipment – except for small businesses, and mining exploration. Only in research and development did Australia provide higher tax subsidies than some other countries and the R&amp;D concession is <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/factsheets/6-tax-integrity" target="_blank">being tightened</a>.
Overall, Australia’s high rate and broad corporate tax base makes new investment, or the expansion of existing investment, expensive relative to other countries.
Why are we such an outlier?
Australia is a resource extraction and exporting economy.
We haven’t had to compete quite as hard for foreign investment as other countries.
Our relatively high rate of company tax serves two purposes: to tax company profits and to get a fair return on resources in the ground which state governments, through royalties, don’t properly charge for.
And we are geographically isolated, meaning that, even in the global digital economy, it is hard for companies to service us from offshore. Many have to be here and subject to tax.
Also, and importantly, our reliance on corporate tax is not as dramatic as it seems, because of our almost unique dividend imputation system. About one third to one half of corporate tax revenues are handed back to shareholders in credits against company tax already collected. (New Zealand, which has an imputation system, also has high corporate tax revenues).
Kevin Davies suggests that the “real” corporate tax rate in Australia, taking account of dividend imputation, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-company-tax-burden-is-just-a-myth-10433" target="_blank">below 20%</a>.
But that assumes a closed economy. The reality is that the imputation system subsidises some domestic investors – especially tax-free retirees with self managed super funds – while pushing the full weight of company tax onto foreign investment, at the expense of the economy as a whole, and at the expense of Australians who could potentially benefit from that investment.
The political heat generated by Labor’s proposal to end the payment of imputation cheques to <a href="https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/retirees-mobilise-to-stop-franking-credit-change-20181119-h18290" target="_blank">retirees who don’t pay tax</a> shows their high value to domestic investors. Self-managed super funds are <a href="https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/the-franking-elephant-in-the-room-1888156" target="_blank">massively overweight in stocks that provide imputation credits</a>, skewing the Australian share market and the dividend policy of our largest companies.
Does it matter?
Australia’s high company tax rate, and the bias in our imputation system against foreign equity, mean that large multinationals will increasingly borrow to finance Australian investment rather than issue shares.
They will get tax deductions for outbound flows of interest, service fees and royalties, while shifting more and more of their sales, marketing and intellectual property offshore where they can.
Australia can, and is, clamping down on profit shifting, but it’s a never-ending battle.
<a href="https://taxpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ttpi-working-papers/12644/australias-high-company-tax-rate-and-dividend-imputation-poor" target="_blank">A bold suggestion </a>is that we should scrap our system of dividend imputation and use the money saved to dramatically cut the rate of company tax. It would make Australia much more attractive to foreign investors, although much less attractive to retirees.
Another idea <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-a-long-term-budget-fix-that-would-boost-investment-replace-company-tax-with-cashflow-tax-108347" target="_blank">aired in The Conversation late last year</a> is that we should make new capital investment fully tax deductible, turning company tax into a “cashflow tax”.
What we’ll probably end up with is a compromise – a combination of permitting greater deductions for new investment and lowering the rate will be the answer, while limiting or ending dividend imputation.
There’s much to be proud of in being a weird mob.
But as David Ingles and I argued in a <a href="https://taxpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ttpi-working-papers/12216/australias-company-tax-options-fiscally-sustainable-reform" target="_blank">research paper</a> last year, it is not smart to ignore what’s happening in other places.
It is true we are geographically isolated, and it is true our resources make us different, but we exist in a global tax environment in which investors consider tax when they decide where to put their money. It is beyond our control.
Miranda Stewart is a Professor at the University of Melbourne
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-figures-put-it-beyond-doubt-when-it-comes-to-company-tax-we-are-a-high-tax-country-in-part-because-it-works-well-for-us-109875" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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When it comes to company tax, we are a high-tax country, in part because it works well for us: Miranda Stewart

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11 percent of home borrowers will be seeking new lenders this year, according to a new research revealed by Finder.
Their survey of 2,010 revealed that 56 percent of Australians are "sick of paying too much for financial products and pledging to switch at least one this year."
Aussies are most likely to switch phone providers, with 3.5 million looking to ditch their telco this year.
Finder's survey revealed "parents are twice as likely (14%) to consider switching a home loan than those without kids (7%)."
"Australians are least likely to shop around for super funds. Just 7% admit they will look for a better deal in 2019."
"Health insurance (17%), car insurance (16%), energy plans (16%) and broadband internet (14%) round out the top five switches that Aussies will be pursuing in 2019," according to the researchers.
Angus Kidman, editor-in-chief at Finder, says “Cost-cutting is the main reason householders will jump ship, and it can result in huge savings.
Generation Y (those aged 24-38) are much more inclined to switch, with 70% keen to find a better deal in 2019, compared to just 41% of Baby Boomers (those aged 59 and above).
Kidman said “More Australians are shopping around than ever before and they’re looking for the best deals."
<table><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="2">
Service                                                       
</th></tr>
<tr>
<td>
Mobile plan
</td>
<td>
18%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Health insurance
</td>
<td>
17%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Car insurance
</td>
<td>
16%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Energy provider
</td>
<td>
16%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Broadband plan
</td>
<td>
14%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Credit card
</td>
<td>
12%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Home loan
</td>
<td>
11%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Super fund
</td>
<td>
7%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Just 11 percent of Australians are set to refinance their home loans in 2019: Finder

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The Customer Owned Banking Association has welcomed the Government’s release of draft regulations to improve access to capital for customer owned banking institutions.
“This will fix an anomaly in tax law that has restricted our sector’s capacity to issue the full range of regulatory capital instruments,” said Customer Owned Banking Association CEO Mike Lawrence.
“Our member banking institutions have been unable to issue convertible debt instruments because of uncertainty about such instruments’ tax status.
“Greater flexibility for our members to issue debt instruments that qualify as regulatory capital will help level the playing field between investor-owned banks and their customer-owned competitors.
“COBA requested this measure in our May 2017 submission to the Hammond Review into access to capital by mutual companies. As Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert MP notes in his announcement today, this is the latest instalment in the implementation of the Hammond Review’s suite of reforms to boost the competitive potential of the customer owned sector.
“These reforms are designed to improve access to capital and to remove uncertainties currently faced by cooperatives and mutuals to enable the sector to invest, innovate, grow and compete with investor owned corporations.
“We congratulate the Government and the Opposition for their bipartisan support for this important reform agenda.
“Release of the draft regulations for consultation is a further step in the right direction to improving competition in the banking sector.
"Greater competition delivers greater outcomes for Australian consumers.” COBA will be making a submission on the draft regulations.
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