<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Netherlands consumer-pays fee-for-service mortgage broking model recommended by Commissioner Hayne in the Banking Royal Commission has proved to be a huge failure for consumers in the Netherlands since its introduction in 2008.
The only winners are the big banks.
According to a 2017 report, entitled Banking in the Netherlands, obtained by Loan Market Group, the total number of banks in the Netherlands decreased from 99 banks in 2007 (when the market still operated on an upfront and commission model) to just 44 banks in 2017 (nine years after fee-for-service was introduced).
Mortgage broker commissions from lenders were completely banned in 2013, after being phased out from 2008.
<a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/3442/the-banking-sector-in-the-netherlands/" target="_blank">The Statista report</a> found the size of the banking sector as a whole in the Netherlands decreased by almost half. The total number of bank offices was approximately 3,400 in 2008. In 2016, this was less than 1,700.
The report categorised the Dutch banking sector as “one of the most concentrated in Europe”.
Additionally, Moody’s Investment Services 2018 report found one of the biggest Netherland institutions ABN Amro’s net interest margins have grown steadily since 2010.
In comparison, the Australian marketplace net interest margins of major and regional banks have been on a steady decrease since brokers were introduced into the sector in the mid-1990s, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Loan Market Group believes this data demonstrates a pronounced lack of competition in the Netherlands, significantly contracting the banking sector, with mortgage brokers no longer having the ability to introduce borrowers to numerous products offered by the smaller banks and lenders.
This just further demonstrates the Netherlands model is a terrible outcome for Aussies.
The model has resulted in fewer lenders and fewer options for Dutch consumers. I fail to see how this is the best option for our marketplace.
The model that has been held up as the roadmap for the Australian mortgage market has been proven to result in less competition and the highest concentration of big banks in Europe.
This means customers have less choice, pay more fees and will get stuck in a home loan because the cost of changing will be too much as they’ll need to fork out each time they want something changed.
The only guarantee that will result from the Dutch model is that customers will pay more and will be locked into their loans.
Some of the key findings and insights from the report include:
●  The Netherlands experienced a massive reduction in the number of lenders from 93 banks in 2008 (when fee-for-service began) to just 44 in 2017.
●  The top five big banks in the Netherlands (including ING, Rabobank and ABN Amro) now control 83.8% of the Netherland’s marketplace.
●  Total number of bank “offices” or branches fell from 3,421 to just 1,619 between 2008 and 2017.
It is very clear the real reason the Big Four Banks in Australia are pushing for the Netherlands model. It will effectively kill off the competition coming from smaller lenders and banks and result in the banks having the lion’s share of the pie again.
This is definitely not the best outcome for customers by any stretch. Not only do customers in the Netherlands have less choice than before the upfront payment was introduced, but they are also paying fees. Fees that Australians don’t currently pay.
It is astounding people have spoken about the Netherlands model with such enthusiasm when we were able to find this solid research very quickly and easily online. It would be nice to think the Commissioner and his team might have done more research than they have, before turning the mortgage industry on its head and recommending a financially detrimental solution for everyday Aussies who are looking for the best home loan solution.
In addition to the reduction in competition, Australian consumers may soon have to pay a fee to get a mortgage. That may well be an option the first time they look for a loan, but it will also be payable if they want to refinance, or change their loan arrangement. Unless the savings are really compelling, switching won’t be worth their while financially, leaving them languishing with whatever product they already have.
As in the Netherlands scenario, it feels very much like the banks are trying to reintroduce exit fees by stealth, making the idea of switching home loans deeply unpalatable to consumers.
Some may suggest that the banks will reduce their fees accordingly, but what in the last 14-months of Royal Commission hearings would give anyone confidence that the banks do anything but look after their shareholders?
Background to the mortgage industry in the Netherlands:
●  In 2008, the Netherlands Ministry of Finance slowly started changing the payable upfront and commission amounts. Starting with 80% and 20% spilt then to 70% and 30% and then to 50% and 50%.
●  In 2011 the regulator announced its attention to completely ban commissions by the end of 2012.
●  The ban on mortgage broker commissions came into place at the beginning of 2013.
●  Borrowers now pay a fee-for-service
Sam White is the Loan Market Group Executive Chairman.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The Netherlands model for mortgages is a complete failure: Loan Market's Sam White

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<div class="tg-tlc-storybody_intro">
National Australia Bank economists no longer forecast a 2019 rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The bank has join those who believe there possibly could be a rate cut before the end of this year.
</div>
The economists said they no longer expected the RBA to hike rates in late 2020, a prediction they made as recent as late 2018.
"We ... now expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the forecast horizon," the bank's economists advised in a research note released today.
"While our central case is for the cash rate to remain on hold, based on the balance of risk, the next move could well be down - potentially as soon as H2 2019."
The RBA has kept rates at 1.5 per cent since August 2016, but last week itself shifted from a bias toward rate hikes to a more neutral stance.
"In particular, we see ongoing slow wage growth, falling savings rates, high debt levels and falling house prices as ongoing headwinds," NAB said in a note authored by chief economist Alan Oster, global head of research Ivan Colhoun and senior economist Gareth Spence.
"Our forecasts raise the question as to why the RBA would not move to give the economy some further support," they said.
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NAB sees no 2019 cash rate rise, and possibly the next move down

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It was a great story.
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/meet-guy-debelle-and-philip-lowe-the-odd-couple-wholl-be-running-the-reserve-bank-20160916-grho4t" target="_blank">Philip Lowe</a> had taken over as Reserve Bank governor after 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth. The Australian economy was transitioning nicely away from the country’s biggest-ever mining boom. Interest rates had been cut to historic lows in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and had bottomed out. Inflation and wages growth were about to pick up. Unemployment was falling. And the new governor would preside over a return to “new normal”, with gradual rate rises up to a cash rate of 3.5-4.0%.
Then a funny thing happened on the way to the fairytale ending.
In <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-02-06" target="_blank">a remarkable speech at the National Press Club on Wednesday</a>, Lowe essentially admitted that the bank might well need to take extra remedial action to get the economy moving again.
Gone was the mantra that “the next movement in interest rate will likely be up”. Rather, Lowe said:
<blockquote>
…here are scenarios where the next move in the cash rate is up, and other scenarios where it is down. Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced.
</blockquote>
Translation: “I don’t want to freak you out, but we’re probably going to have to cut rates. And do it sooner rather than later.”
Consider the two main things driving the Reserve Bank’s decision.
Inflation is stubbornly low. <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574" target="_blank">As I pointed out last week</a>, the bank has long had an inflation target of 2-3%, but it keeps undershooting it, and not just missing the centre, but missing the lower bound. In two and a half years with Lowe as governor, inflation has averaged just 1.87% – and has never been inside the target band. The latest figure is 1.8%.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256541/original/file-20190131-42594-1p06f0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<hr>
Related to that, wages growth is anaemic. For five years it has barely kept up with inflation.
This is broadly true in advanced economies around the world (although our wages are doing worse than those in the United States) and suggests the unemployment rate will need to be pushed down further than in the past in order to reignite wages pressure and hence inflation. That suggests we’ll need even lower interest rates than we’ve got in order to provide what the boffins call monetary stimulus.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<hr>
And the Reserve Bank’s cash rate — the rate that most other rates are set in reference to — is already the lowest on record, at just 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the housing market has taken a big hit, which isn’t over. Nationwide, the market is down 6.1% from its October 2017 peak. In Sydney and Melbourne, the falls are double that.
They are the mainly the result of a credit crunch that flowed from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s decision to wake from its multi-year slumber and tighten lending rules at about the same time the banks responded to the royal commission by impersonating frightened turtles.
Sinking property prices sink spending
Sliding property prices shrink household spending, which makes up roughly 60% of economic activity.
On Tuesday, in the statement it released after its first board meeting for the year, the bank obliquely signalled that it had cut its GDP growth forecasts, mentioning forecasts of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-01" target="_blank">3% this year and less in 2020</a> instead of the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-31" target="_blank">3.5% this year and less in 2020</a> it had mentioned after its December meeting.
Add in the global headwinds from the US-China trade tensions and the fallout from the bungled Brexit, and it’s hard to find much that’s encouraging about the Australian economy in the year ahead.
Lowe didn’t want to state explicitly that he might have to cut rates between now and the election (and if necessary during the campaign itself), but he didn’t need to. He has been as clear as governors get.
Rates could be cut on budget day
A decent bet is the bank will cut 25 points on the first Tuesday in May, after the release of the updated (and possibly weak) inflation data on April 24.
Another possible date is the first Tuesday in April, April 2, after the March release of the December quarter economic growth figures, especially if economic growth turns negative. Coincidentally, April 2 is the day the government has set aside for the early budget, so it can hold the election in May.
If it does there will be some who will try to spin it as good news. In 2007 John Howard campaigned under the slogan that rates would be “lower under the Coalition”.
Don’t think it couldn’t happen
His treasurer Peter Costello was under the impression the bank wouldn’t dare move rate during the campaign, unwisely telling broadcaster Jon Faine it would <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/costello-quiet-on-offair-rates-comments-20071107-18kq" target="_blank">keep them put</a>.
“He looked me in the eye. He put his thumb down as he sat there…and he said, ‘There will not be a rate rise in November. Take it from me’,” Faine said.
Having marked out the territory, there is no doubt the bank will use it if needed. To do otherwise would be to invite questions about whether it had favoured one party or the other by holding off.
The hard truth is that we live in a <a href="http://larrysummers.com/category/secular-stagnation/" target="_blank">secular-stagnation world</a>, with too much saving chasing too few profitable investment opportunities.
Rates no longer need to be particularly high
That means that interest rates don’t need to be anything like as high as they once did to attract enough money to fund good ideas. And even if the ideas are good, it is likely they won’t need as much money as they did. Whereas once it took tens of billions of dollars to create a globally significant company (like BHP or US Steel) all it takes now is maybe $2,000 and a laptop, as with Facebook and Google.
A massive mining boom caused by the transition of China to a market economy and then a huge property bubble masked the new reality here for while.
Now it is here for all to see, the Reserve Bank governor included.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-needed-this-man-can-and-will-cut-rates-during-the-election-campaign-111254" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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If needed, this man can and will cut rates during the election campaign: Richard Holden

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Amid uncertainty in the financial markets following the Royal Commission report, it was business as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 1.5 percent for another month.
Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded no further information, just further declines in some key areas.
Below are four charts which highlight the continued declines.
One of the most important aspect is the housing price to housing debt ratio, which has been tracking in the opposite, and negative, direction for months.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart1.jpg" alt="">
The decline in house prices has led to consumer sentiment tracking toward the average, a figure we haven't seen since since late 2017.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart3.jpg" alt="">
The <a href="/news/apartments-drive-dwelling-approval-decline-back-to-2013-levels">recent dwelling approval figures</a>, which showed an 8.4 percent decline in December nationwide, will have been a big factor in the RBA's decision to hold rates.
Its surprise December decline bring the seasonally adjusted annual decline to 22 percent.
The annual decline has been driven by apartment approvals, which have now gone back 38 percent over the 12 months to December 2018.
House approvals have declined 11 percent in that time period.
In trends terms, dwelling approvals have now fallen for 14 straight months, down 39 percent from the November 2017 peak.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart2.jpg" alt="">
There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.
A household's disposable income hasn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/Rba-Chart4.jpg" alt="">
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Growing gaps in key areas a concern for the RBA: RBA chart pack

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Do you live overseas and own a house in Australia? If so, you may have less than five months to act before you’re stuck with a large tax bill on the sale of that property.
<h3>Proposed tax changes</h3>
In May 2017, the Australian Government proposed changes to the existing capital gains tax (‘CGT’) laws. These changes will affect tax non-residents who hold property in Australia that have previously lived in as their main residence.
Under the current laws, an Australian property that is your main residence can be sold with potentially no Australian tax to pay (or at least a significantly reduced amount of tax to pay to reflect the ‘main residence’ period you lived there). However, under the proposed changes, if you are a non-resident (for Australian tax purposes) at the date of sale, you will no longer be able to claim the ‘main residence exemption’. This means that the entire gain you make on selling the property could be subject to tax, with no reduction for the period you actually lived in the property.
Although these proposed changes were announced nearly two years ago, they are still not law. It appears that one of the reasons for this is because the changes are quite draconian given non-residents could be taxed on the entire gain made on the property sale (irrespective of whether the property was their main residence for a significant period of time).
Further, if legislated, the changes are proposed to apply retrospectively from 9 May 2017. Despite this, there is a proposed transitional period for properties purchased before 9 May 2017 and sold by 30 June 2019 (whereby the current rules will still apply, meaning they could potentially still obtain the ‘main residence exemption’).
For many people, this means they may have less than five months to decide whether to sell their property or be faced with a large tax bill.
<h3>What should you do between now and 30 June 2019?</h3>
The uncertainty surrounding whether these changes will become law can make accurate decision making very difficult.
Should you sell your property now? Is it the right time to sell? What happens if the changes don’t become law?
Whilst the answers to many of the questions is outside your control, if you answer these four questions below, the decision-making process should become a lot clearer.
<ul>
<li>1) Will I actually be affected?</li>
</ul>
Ask yourself “will these changes even affect me?”
These changes will only apply where you are a tax non-resident at the date of sale. If you intend to re-establish your tax residency in Australia, the changes may not apply to you.
For example, you may currently be overseas on secondment and intend to return to Australia in the future. If you don’t plan on selling your property before returning to Australia, then you should not be affected by the changes.
Alternatively, if you plan to move overseas permanently and sell your property whilst you are a tax non-resident, then you would be affected and may need to act fast.
<ul>
<li>2) Will I have a large tax bill?</li>
</ul>
Even if you are affected by the proposed changes, you may not have a large tax bill on your hands.
To determine this, calculate what your tax liability would be (if any) under the current law and then again applying the proposed changes. If these calculations do not give rise to a material tax difference, you mightn’t have anything to worry about with the proposed changes.
For example, if you bought your house two years ago there may have been little growth in the value of the property since that time, meaning there may be little tax to pay on sale.
Alternatively, if you bought your house 30 years ago and lived there for 25 years prior to moving overseas, you could be up for a large tax bill on the difference in the property’s value between when you acquired it and when you sold it. In these circumstances, the decision to sell your property before 30 June 2019 becomes more relevant.
<ul>
<li>3) Should I sell before 30 June?</li>
</ul>
As an investor, you should assess whether it is appropriate for you to sell your property before 30 June 2019. This decision should not be made hastily (especially in light of Australia’s current property market).
According to CoreLogic, Australia is currently facing its weakest property market since 2008. As a result, if you were to sell your property during the coming months, you may not achieve the sale price you’re after. Are you better off holding the property long term and selling it when the market recovers? In some instances, a lower sale price may even outweigh any tax saving you would make by selling before 30 June 2019.
However, if you don’t sell your property, consider any potential holding costs. These could include land tax and an annual vacancy fee if your property is not residentially occupied or rented out for more than 183 days in a year.
Also ask yourself “how does my property fit within my investment portfolio?”. If your property has a strong rental yield you mightn’t be in a rush to sell. On the flip side, would the sale of your property enable you to invest in other assets with a higher return?
<ul>
<li>4) Will I be able to sell before 30 June?</li>
</ul>
Even if you decide to sell before 30 June, is it possible?
The Australian property market has experienced a recent decrease in auction clearance rates to 43.6% in the last quarter of 20181. These market conditions could cause delays in the sale of your property and mean you can’t actually sell before 30 June 2019.
If you need to undertake renovations to spruce your property up before selling, this could contribute to additional delays. This means you may need to move fast if you want to sell before 30 June.
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
Although the potential changes may seem daunting, if you work through the 4 steps above, you may find out you’ve got nothing to worry about. Alternatively, if you do have a potentially large tax problem, by acting fast and tailoring a solution to your personal circumstances, you may be able to manage (or eliminate) the problem.
NICOLE JOANNOU is a consultant for William Buck, a firm of Chartered Accountants and advisors with offices across Australia and New Zealand. 
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Sell your Australian property now, or risk a big tax bill: Nicole Joannou

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates left on hold for a record 27th meeting in a row.
No surprises there.
Since its December meeting the RBA has become less upbeat - acknowledging that downside risks have increased globally, revising down its Australian growth forecasts from “around 3.5%” to “around 3% for this year and a little less in 2020”, acknowledging the threat to consumer spending from falling house prices, revising down its inflation forecasts yet again to 2% this year (from 2.25%) and sounding a bit more concerned about the downturn in house prices.
However, despite its growth and inflation downgrades and increased downside risks it retains the view that “further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected” implying that it still believes that the next move in rates will be up rather than down. 
This probably explains why the $A bounced from around $US0.72 around the time of the rates announcement to around $US0.726 an hour or so later.
Tomorrow’s address by Governor Lowe and Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy may provide greater clarity as to whether it retains its “next move is more likely to be up” bias on interest rates.
Nevertheless, our view is that RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – both directly via reduced housing construction and also indirectly via reduced consumer spending – and as a consequence we see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
Consistent with this we have seen a string of soft economic data releases this year including for business conditions, business conditions PMIs, consumer confidence, retail sales, housing approvals and housing starts, house prices and job ads.
As a result our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

The RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end: Shane Oliver

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The February meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 27 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said the declining house price market will likely put pressure on the RBA in the future, however he predicted a hold at today's meeting.
"The RBA has looked past the housing downturn which has gathered some momentum over the past three months", Lawless said.
"The hold decision was widely anticipated, considering a subtle uplift in CPI and steady labour market conditions, however financial markets are increasingly leaning towards the next move from the RBA being a cut rather than a hike. 
"With CoreLogic’s January hedonic index revealing national dwelling values are falling at the fastest rate since the GFC, while Sydney and Melbourne’s rate of decline is now the most rapid since at least the early 1980’s, there is the potential the RBA may be becoming less comfortable with the performance of the housing sector. 
"Add to this a consistent downtrend in dwelling approvals, weakening consumer sentiment and softer retail trade figures, and it looks like the household sector could start to weigh down economic growth. 
Figures released by the ABS yesterday showed dwelling approvals declined to lows not seen since 2018.
Lawless said the RBA may consider a rate cut due to a number of out of cycle rate hikes.
"The weeks preceding the RBA meeting saw several smaller lenders pushing mortgage rates higher in response to persistently high funding costs, following an average 14 basis point rise in owner occupier mortgage rates since September last year. 
"If we see mortgage rates rising more broadly, we might see the RBA become more willing to consider a rate cut in an effort to offset higher funding costs and support heavily indebted household balance sheets."
 
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RBA holds official cash rate in first meeting of 2019

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy grew above trend in 2018, although it slowed in the second half of the year. Unemployment rates in most advanced economies are low. The outlook for global growth remains reasonable, although downside risks have increased. The trade tensions are affecting global trade and some investment decisions. Growth in the Chinese economy has continued to slow, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector. Globally, headline inflation rates have moved lower due to the decline in oil prices, although core inflation has picked up in a number of economies.
Financial conditions in the advanced economies tightened in late 2018, but remain accommodative. Equity prices declined and credit spreads increased, but these moves have since been partly reversed. Market participants no longer expect a further tightening of monetary policy in the United States. Government bond yields have declined in most countries, including Australia. The Australian dollar has remained within the narrow range of recent times. The terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years, but are expected to decline over time.
The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 3 per cent this year and by a little less in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. The growth outlook is being supported by rising business investment and higher levels of spending on public infrastructure. As is the case globally, some downside risks have increased. GDP growth in the September quarter was weaker than expected. This was largely due to slow growth in household consumption and income, although the consumption data have been volatile and subject to revision over recent quarters. Growth in household income has been low over recent years, but is expected to pick up and support household spending. The main domestic uncertainty remains around the outlook for household spending and the effect of falling housing prices in some cities.
The housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are going through a period of adjustment, after an earlier large run-up in prices. Conditions have weakened further in both markets and rent inflation remains low. Credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been. At the same time, the demand for credit by investors in the housing market has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased to an annualised pace of 5½ per cent. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at 5 per cent. A further decline in the unemployment rate to 4¾ per cent is expected over the next couple of years. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. The stronger labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. The improvement in the labour market should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
Inflation remains low and stable. Over 2018, CPI inflation was 1.8 per cent and in underlying terms inflation was 1¾ per cent. Underlying inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual and to take a little longer than earlier expected. The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 2 per cent this year and 2¼ per cent in 2020. Headline inflation is expected to decline in the near term because of lower petrol prices.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
Source <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-01" target="_blank">RBA</a>
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Weakening house prices as 2018 adjustment continues: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's February 2019 meeting statement

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Chris Joye's AFR column says the biggest winners from the royal commission are demonstrably the big banks while the largest losers are Australia’s mortgage brokers.
"Indeed, the top end of town have done an amazing job convincing everyone that brokers should be made the “fall guys” for their own deeds, surreptitiously fattening their profits, despite no evidence of pervasive misconduct," Joye noted.
Joye noted the single biggest cost a lender incurs when selling a home loan is the 0.6 per cent upfront commission and 0.2 per cent annual trailing commission that they pay to a mortgage broker.
Mortgage brokers currently settle around 59 per cent of all mortgages in Australia.
"If the royal commission has its way and/or Labor comes to power, these commissions will disappear completely, destroying the existing business models of the 20,000 mortgage brokers (and their employees) that rely on this revenue.
"This is horrific news for aggregator businesses that have built up large networks of brokers licenced by them in exchange for a share of the revenue they generate."
The only hope the latter have is to quickly shift into lending and securitising themselves, he says, adding the ban on broker commissions will radically reduce bank and non-bank mortgage distribution costs, which is "ironically going to be a huge profitability fillip for funders."
According to CBA evidence cited by the commission, a bank typically has to pay a mortgage broker $6,600 in fees to sell a loan via this channel, which accounts for almost 60 per cent of all residential mortgages written in Australia.
Under the commission’s proposal, these costs will disappear and be shunted on to consumers, whom CBA says should be prepared to pay about $2,310 for the service.
Brokers are also set to be regulated for the first time under the much stricter future of financial advice (FoFA) laws that apply to planners.
Mortgage brokers will be subjected to a "best interests" duty.
The government has said it will move to ban trailing commissions from July 2020, after the royal commission final report declared the chief value of trail commissions to the recipient, "to put it bluntly, is that they are money for nothing".
The government said it would not immediately adopt Commissioner Kenneth Hayne's call for upfront commissions to also be banned and be replaced by a customer-paid fee, which Labor indicated it would support.
 
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Mortgage brokers are the fall guys for the big banks' misdeeds: Chris Joye

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Hong Kong based, Societe Generale's chief economist for Asia Pacific, Klaus Baader has joins the growing band of senior economists who foresee a rate cut in Australia in 2019.
He has issued a statement in light of recent economic events that a cash rate cut is more likely than a hike in Australia.
Klaus Baader said since the RBA's previous meeting in December, prospects for the global market have deteriorated markedly, several other central banks have shifted their guidance - some rather radically - "and Australia's economy looks notably less strong than it did then (two months ago)."
"The RBA's latest forecasts will illustrate this.
"Given this backdrop, we have ditched the view that rate normalisation would begin in May of this year."
"Indeed, with the US economy likely so slide into recession in 2020, we believe that the next RBA rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike," he concluded.
Klaus joined Societe Generale in July 2009 and was Chief Euro Area Economist in London before moving to Hong Kong in 2012.
He had been Chief Europe Economist at Merrill Lynch since 2006 after working at Lehman Brothers, UBS and Deutsche Bank.
Klaus began his career at Salomon Brothers in 1989, after studying Economics and Political Science at the University of Cologne and the London School of Economics.
He received his B.Sc. in Economics from the LSE in 1988, and completed a Master course in Economics in 1989.
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