<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The losers from Labor’s capital gains tax policy aren’t all where you would expect them to be, whatever you expect. 
Labor is going into the election promising to tax capital gains more heavily. Depending on who you listen to, it’ll either hit the very highest of earners, or middle earners – people such as teachers and nurses. The same critics have claimed different things at different times.
The truth is even stranger. In part because people who present as being part of one income group are often better described as being part of another.
It’s certainly stranger than fiction.
What are capital gains?
Capital gains are the profits made from buying something at one price and selling it at another. These profits are typically taxed at only <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/general/capital-gains-tax/working-out-your-capital-gain-or-loss/working-out-your-capital-gain/the-discount-method-of-calculating-your-capital-gain/" target="_blank">half the rate of other income</a>. (Technically, only half of each capital gain is taxed.)
The discount, introduced by <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/opinion/revenge-bloodymindedness-and-gullibility-the-untaxing-of-capital-gains-20150810-giv8zg" target="_blank">Prime Minister John Howard</a> in late 1999, was sold as ensuring that profit takers wouldn’t be taxed on the workings of inflation, a concession that was already built into the system, although in a more complicated way.
But because inflation had fallen so dramatically, the 50% discount went much further. It taxed capital gains, so-called “unearned income”, at a much lower rate than income earned in the form of wages and salaries, and also at a lower rate than bank interest and other forms of income.
In the lead up to the coming election (and the last one) the Labor Party has promised to wind back the discount, cutting it from 50% to 25% for newly-purchased assets held for more than a year, meaning that for those assets <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing" target="_blank">three quarters</a> of each gain will be taxed instead of one half.
There are two (apparently contradictory) views about who the changes will hit, both of them spelled out in the pages of The Australian, and both sourced to the treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
On January 5 the treasurer said investors would pay the “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/investors-to-pay-worlds-highest-capital-gains-tax-under-alp/news-story/0e5fdcfd4c942f7346c5385a2848dc67" target="_blank">world’s highest tax</a>” under Labor’s changes.
But that would only be the case if they were the very highest earners, on more than A$180,000. And it would only be the case for a short time where the capital gains are a one off.
Mr Frydenberg quoted a rate of 36.75% for capital gains tax, which would be three quarters of 49%, which itself would be made up of the top marginal rate of 45% plus the 2% Medicare levy plus the 2% temporary budget repair levy that Labor plans to reintroduce for two years.
That top marginal rate only applies to Australians on more than A$180,000.
Then ten days later on January 15, Mr Frydenberg said most of the workers hurt would be on much lower incomes, of up to A$80,000.
Then shadow treasurer Chris Bowen entered the debate, calling Fyrdenberg’s second claim “silly”. He said 70% of the total amount of capital gains tax discounts claimed was claimed by the top earners.
But he didn’t address the treasurer’s contention that most of the beneficiaries are lower earners.
What the data says
The Australian National University’s microsimulation model of the tax and social security system, <a href="http://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/policymod" target="_blank">PolicyMod</a>, and the Australian Tax Officie’s <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/About-ATO/Research-and-statistics/In-detail/Taxation-statistics/Taxation-statistics-2015-16/" target="_blank">Taxstats 2015-16</a> enable us to get at the truth.
Using a 2% sample of the tax returns submitted, including the information about capital gains and capital losses, we are able to work out who is the hardest hit by capital gains tax by income, age and gender.
At first blush we find that almost all capital gains tax collected - 85% - is paid by the top 10% of income earners. The bottom 10% (and also the bottom 20%) pay nothing.
It shouldn’t be surprising. High earners pay more tax than low earners because they earn more. The top 10% of earners also pay 51% of personal income tax.
Not many people pay capital gains tax
Around 900,000 Australians report capital gains per year, a figure <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/labors-capital-gains-tax-hike-will-hurt-the-economy/news-story/5f8c61d6b57c107dc70bad55553e8de7" target="_blank">used by the treasurer</a> to suggest capital gains are widespread.
But after taking losses into account, the number reporting net capital gains falls to 670,000. Only about 540,000 of them pay capital gains tax. The others have taxable incomes below the tax-free threshold.
Of the 540,000 who do pay capital gains tax, 29% are in the top 10% of earners by taxable income.
A very high 12.7% are in the top 3% of earners, meaning they are on the very highest tax bracket, earning A$180,000 or more.
Small in number though they are, the Australians in the top 3% who pay capital gains tax, pay 74% of it. They pay 30.7% of all personal income tax.
They’re often retirees, and women
Older Australians pay only 5.6% of all personal income tax but about 29% of all capital gains tax.
Surprisingly, partnered women are also over-represented, paying 19.4% of personal income tax but an outsized 28.7% of capital gains tax. This is what you would expect if couples planning to minimise tax put the asset they were planning to buy and sell in the name of the lower paid partner.
Persons with wages and salaries are underrepresented, paying around 88% of personal income tax but only around 47% of capital gains tax.
But these figures are misleading.
Partnered women pay 19.4% of personal income tax but an outsized 28.7% of capital gains tax. 
It gets stranger still
By definition, most people’s incomes will be high in the year in which they pay capital gains tax. Examining their total income in that year, as we have done, will wrongly make it look as if it is mainly high income people who pay capital gains tax.
An alternative measure would be to rank people by their taxable income after deducting their capital gains. It’d rank them by something more like their normal income.
When we do that we find that the share of capital gains tax paid by the top 10% of earners is nothing like the 85% we first found. It’s a much lower 38%.
This measure produces another, very odd, result.
The bottom 10% turn out to pay, not none of the capital gains tax collected as we had thought, but an overweight 20%.
Stranger still, the next-bottom 10%, the people who fit somewhere between the bottom 10% and the 20%, pay only 4% of the capital gains tax collected.
Our lowest earners embrace capital gains…
There’s something odd at the bottom for those reporting capital gains. The clue lies in what they are at the bottom of. They are at the bottom of the taxable income scale.
And they are indeed odd.
The bottom 10% claim an awful lot of capital gains - an average of A$161,000 per capital gains tax payer, which is more than that claimed by any other income group, including the top 10%.
Capital gains make up a large share of their taxable income, larger than for higher income groups, and far lower than for other low income groups. Only around 8% receive government pensions or allowances.
Although their taxable incomes, after deducting net capital gains, are in the bottom 10%, their actual wealth and living standards are likely much higher up the distribution. Many own shares and businesses or have negatively geared investment properties. They get dividend imputation cheques and report business losses.
…although they don’t act like low earners
To get closer to the unvarnished truth, we would need to compare capital gains by household, examining the combined income of each household, which is less easy to manipulate than the income of an individual. But Australia’s tax system is built around individuals, so it’s hard to do. We would also like to know more about their typical income and whether capital gains were likely a one off or something more permanent.
Here’s what we can say:
Labor’s change will “grandfather” existing assets, meaning they will continue to be taxed under the present, more generous, arrangement. This means Labor’s change won’t have much of an effect for years, making any simple guess of how much money it makes an overestimate.
At the moment, personal taxpayers pay A$6.7 billion per year in capital gains tax. Labor’s changes could potentially reap half that amount, but they would build up to it slowly, and by the time they got there, fewer people would look for capital gains as a means of escaping tax, meaning they would never get there, and giving a boost to other kinds of tax revenue.
It’s pretty certain that those who would feel it most would be higher income earners, older Australians, partnered women, quite often on behalf of their higher income partner.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109657/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-phillips-98866" target="_blank">Ben Phillips</a>, Associate Professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Director, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-gray-229834" target="_blank">Matthew Gray</a>, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stranger-than-fiction-who-labors-capital-gains-tax-changes-will-really-hurt-109657" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Who Labor’s capital gains tax changes will really hurt: Ben Phillips & Matthew Gray

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The Bank of Queensland has become the first bank to officially hike home loan rates out of cycle in 2019.
The decision affects a range of BOQ variable rate loans including their Economy Variable Home Loan which is increasing by 0.11 per cent for both new and existing customers.
Other loans are increasing by up to 0.18 per cent, effective from January 11th.
That increases the price of monthly repayments on a $500,000 dollar loan by $32 and over the life of the loan it will cost an additional $11,369
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the bank has cited cost of funding pressures and intense competition in term deposits as the reasons for the hike.
“These cost of funding pressures are affecting most banks so it’s likely we’ll see other lenders follow suit in 2019,” she said"
“A lot of household budgets are feeling the pinch after Christmas. While most families will be able to absorb this hike, some may struggle to come up with the extra cash,” she concluded.
Bank of Queensland is the ninth largest mortgage lender in Australia, according to APRA.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/BOQ%20hike.JPG" alt="">
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Bank of Queensland hikes home loan rates for 2019

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There are three leading economists who think that the Reserve Bank will be cutting interest rates this year; AMP Capital's Shane Oliver, Industry Super's Stephen Anthony, and Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas.
"The Reserve Bank is conflicted. It knows the economy is slowing and that risks are building in asset markets, especially east coast property," Mr Anthony told Nine Entertainment.
"But should that be the official forecast? It also knows that if it can 'manage' sentiment it may also contribute to a softening of activity rather than a bust, especially via property prices and dwelling investment."
It was more likely we had entered "a secular bear market phase" with respect to asset prices, Mr Anthony suggested.
"With the background being declining residential house prices, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, the wealth effects will be significant, likely reducing household consumption growth to at or below 2 per cent in 2019."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
Dr Oliver believes the Reserve Bank's bias is "still slightly hawkish" in that "it has not turned dovish yet but it is getting less hawkish and bit more open to the view that the next move in rates may not be up".
Nine Entertainment did a poll of 38 economists on the direction of the next interest rate move and 35 advised the Reserve Bank will likely put them up in 2020.
The consensus was that the RBA would raise the official cash rate to 1.75 percent by June 2020.
Eighteen months ago most of them were forecasting a rate rise in 2018. Six months later, predictions moved to 2019. Now the general consensus is rates won't go up until 2020 - with some even calling out to 2021.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver arrived at his view <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-to-cut-rates-second-half-of-next-year-shane-oliver">a few weeks back</a> after the September quarter Australian GDP figures (which came in December) showed the rate of growth had slowed to an annualised 2.8 per cent.
Oliver reasons that the RBA won't move to lower the rate in any attempt to head off further falls in the property market but to help households that carry a mortgage.
But the reversal in house values over the past year has promoted a negative wealth effect which is more likely to result in consumers spending less.
To have much impact the RBA would need to cut twice so Oliver said the official cash rate might go down to 1 percent given the slump in the major housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne. 
The Reserve Bank made a policy error in pursuing stability in interest rates in the belief this would encourage confidence, Mr Koukoulas argued.
"The very slight change in tone in recent times is a belated realisation of this error and if, as seems likely, inflation remains outside its target range and its rosy forecasts for growth and unemployment fall flat, it will, pragmatically, change tack."
The wealth effect and its relationship with consumption growth also had been played down, he said, "at its peril".
The RBA will announce its initial 2019 monetary policy decision when the board convenes next month.
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Why the RBA will cut interest rates in 2019

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The announcement of the removal of the 30 percent cap for new interest-only residential mortgages will allow lenders to offer more choice for customers, leading to an increase in competition across the industry, particularly for smaller and regional banks, the Australian Banking Association chief, Anna Bligh said.
“While banks will continue to lend prudently, today’s decision will mean all banks can offer more choice for customers who are looking to buy a house or apartment. 
Average rates according to borrower 
<table class="x_MsoTableGrid" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="301">
Owner occupier, principal and interest
</td>
<td valign="top" width="58">
4.27%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="301">
Owner occupier, interest-only
</td>
<td valign="top" width="58">
4.68%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="301">
Investor, principal and interest
</td>
<td valign="top" width="58">
4.60%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="301">
Investor, interest-only
</td>
<td valign="top" width="58">
4.84%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: RateCity.com.au
“Increased competition across the industry will mean customers have more ability to shop around for the best deal for them when looking at an interest-only home loan,” she said. 
In terms of banks home loan commitments, the proportion of interest-only loans are now 16 percent much lower than the proportion seen two years ago at 37 percent.
Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity.com.au, noted APRA’s intervention has had a marked effect on new borrowing.
“This announcement will see banks re-open their books to more interest-only lenders, particularly investors."
But Tindall was unsure whether there would be a drop in interest-only rates to attract more borrowers.
“Banks have grown accustomed to charging borrowers more for interest-only loans," she said.
The final ACCC report into residential mortgage pricing released last week found that the big four banks collected an extra $1.1 billion over the last financial year as a result of hiking interest-only rates as since March 2017 there has been a 37 basis point average increase in interest rates on investor, interest only loans.
On average the rates are now 32 basis points above investor, principal and interest loans, and 76 basis points above owner occupied, principal and interest rates.
“We have also seen an increase in interest rates for owner occupier interest only loans that are up 33 basis points since their lows in March last year," Mozo’s property expert Steve Jovcevski said.
“While we welcome the push to improve lending standards, it’s clear the cap on interest only loans has put the brakes on the investor market.
“Coupled with the cooling of the housing markets across the country which have pulled back significantly since their peaks, it’s clear the temporary cap has done its job,” Jovcevski said.
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APRA's IO loan cap abolition will allow greater choice for over charged borrowers

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The RBA's minutes for the December cash rate meeting have noted demand for off the plan apartment had declined significantly since mid-2017.
The RBA also suggested that liaison with developers indicated that demand for new detached housing in eastern Australia had eased over the previous year or so and some developers had reported that this decline in demand had become more pronounced.
"Given the substantial amount of work outstanding and recent data on dwelling approvals, dwelling investment was expected to remain around this level for at least the following year or so before moderating," it noted.
They said that dwelling investment has continued around its recent high level in the September quarter, and given the substantial amount of work outstanding on dwelling approvals, dwelling investment was expected to remain around this level for at least the following year or so before moderating.
Again Sydney and Melbourne were the main housing localities for the eastern capital decline. 
"Members observed that housing prices had fallen across all price segments in Sydney," the minutes noted, adding house prices had fallen by around nine percent since September 2017 to be around their September 2016 levels.
They said Melbourne levels have dropped back to what they were around March 2017, having seen a decline of just under six percent since their November 2017 peak.
"Auction clearance rates and indicators of private-treaty activity had also declined a little further in both cities," the RBA also added.
Despite the property market decline, the RBA found that, having liaised with retailers, that underlying trading conditions had been stable.
Surveys suggested that households' views about their financial situation had remained around average.
For the full RBA minutes <a href="/expert-insights/finance/downsize-risks-acknowledged-in-december-2019-minutes-of-reserve-bank-board">click here</a>.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA notes developers report demand for off-the-plan apartments has declined significantly: December meeting minutes

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Downsize risks acknowledged in December 2019 Minutes of Reserve Bank Board

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A non-bank finance group is making a pitch to mortgage brokers, hoping to double its clientele in the wake of the Royal Commission and predicted change of federal government.
Chifley Securities’ Principal Dominic Lambrinos said that its current lending to developers and landowners extends to $2 billion and it works with 3,000 brokers.
Lambrinos said it wants to double the number of brokers it works with over the next year.
“There are more than 10,000 mortgage brokers across Australia and many of them will not have a viable business or career if trail commissions are phased out,” he said.
“Shorter term lending by non-banks like Chifley Securities provide upfront commissions of up to 1 per cent, with this to rate to be paid again when the loan rolls over.
Lambrinos said the company pays commissions on loan it provides, as well as settlements in up to two weeks, incentives for referrals and training.
“Mortgage brokers can make an easy transition to commercial property lending through our training &amp; support programs and gain another income flow, which sadly I expect will be required with the expected changes to trails,” he said.
“We are also seeing an explosion in the number of private investors entering the market, especially large and small foreign funds, which are keen to finance projects and prepared to work with Chifley Securities and it’s brokers to gain access to this asset class.
“This is creating a pipeline of loans which brokers can tap into by diversifying from their traditional mortgage base.”
</body></html>

Non-bank group makes pitch to attract mortgage brokers

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
GDP rose by just 0.3% in the September quarter and this saw annual growth slow to 2.8% year on year.
This was well below market (and RBA) expectations for growth around 3.4% year on year.
To some degree the slowdown in the September quarter reflects payback after two surprisingly strong quarters. But it also highlights the uncertainty around consumer spending as house prices slide and the ongoing patchiness of business investment.
We still see the risk of a recession in Australia as being low, but the rising list of downside risks to growth also mean that growth is likely to be constrained at around 2.5-3% over the year ahead as opposed to achieving the RBA’s expectation for growth “to average around 3.5%”. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/real-GDP.jpg" alt="">
The main points from the September quarter GDP data and associated outlooks are as follows:
- Consumer spending slowed to just 0.3% quarter on quarter or 2.5% year on year. Looking forward, apart from quarterly volatility, consumer spending is likely to remain under pressure. Yes employment growth has been strong but this is likely to slow, wages growth is likely to remain weak (with average earnings up just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy in the September quarter) and households are unlikely to have the confidence to run down their saving further in the face of declining home values. (While the household saving rate was revised up its still just 2.4% which is down from around 9% in 2011 and more than a 10 year low). Likely fresh tax cuts next year might help but its doubtful they will be enough.
- Housing investment rose 1%qoq and contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. But while there is still a decent pipeline of work yet to be finished, housing investment will likely slow as the downtrend in building approvals flows through. This in turn will act as a drag on consumer spending via slower demand for household goods.
- Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) fell 1.9%qoq and detracted 0.2 percentage points from growth. Mining investment is continuing to fall but at least it’s getting near the bottom and the outlook for non-mining investment has improved.
 - Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) rose 1.5%qoq and contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth, with the infrastructure spending boom continuing. Public sPending is likely to make a continuing solid contribution to growth over the next year.
 - Inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from growth.
 - Net exports made a 0.3 percentage point contribution to growth. The outlook for export growth is still positive thanks to resource exports and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow. But the contribution to growth is likely to slow going forward and is at risk if the US trade war with China is not resolved next year.
- Inflation pressures and wages are still subdued. Inflation as measured by the private final consumption deflator was just 0.4%qoq or 1.6%yoy. Average compensation per employee was up by just 0.2%qoq or 1.2%yoy. And real unit wages costs are falling at the rate of 1.5%yoy. 
Implications
The Australian economy continues to grow but its slowed back to a subpar pace after a brief spurt. A bottoming in mining investment, improving non-mining investment, strong infrastructure spending and strong export earnings should support growth going forward but are likely to be offset by the downturn in housing construction and house prices weighing on consumer spending. As such growth is likely to be stuck around 2.5-3% over the year ahead.
Given the combination of falling house prices, tightening credit conditions and constrained growth which will keep wages growth weak and inflation below target we are changing our view on the RBA from being one of rates on hold out to second half of 2020 to now seeing the next move being a rate cut.
However, with the RBA still seeing the next move as being up it will take them a while to change their thinking so we don’t see rates being cut until second half next year. When it does start cutting the RBA will likely stick to 0.25% increments and since rate moves are a bit like cockroaches there is likely to be more than one. This in turn will ultimately weigh on the Australian dollar.
SHANE OLIVER is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA to cut rates second half of next year: Shane Oliver

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The latest chart pack gives an insight into how the RBA came to its decision to leave the cash rate on hold at a record low 1.5 percent.
GDP growth continues to rise towards the four percent mark.
It is now at its highest point since 2012.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/5/GDP.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/GDP.jpg" alt="">
CPI remains unpredictable, hovering above or below the two percent region.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/5/CPI.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/CPI.jpg" alt="">
The gap between disposable income and consumption is narrowing.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/5/income-consumption.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/income-consumption.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continues to rise to levels not seen since mid 2016.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/5/consumer-sent.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/consumer-sent.jpg" alt="">
Housing loan approvals for investors and owner occupiers continue their downward trajectory after tighter lending criteria.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/12/5/loans.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/12/5/loans.jpg" alt="">
 
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Housing loan approvals for investors head lower given tighter lending: RBA chart park

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% at its December board meeting. That makes 26 consecutive meetings that rates have been on hold.
As has been the case with most Statements by the Governor in this cycle, there are very limited changes in this Statement.
Clearly, developments in global trade are tempering the Bank’s views on the global economy. In November, the Governor referred to “uncertainty from the direction of international trade policy in the United States”. In this Statement, he is much more explicit noting “there are, however, some signs of a slowdown in global trade partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions”.
The positive growth forecasts of 3.5% (average over 2018 and 2019) are confirmed. The positive business conditions and rising levels of public infrastructure expenditure are noted. On the other hand, uncertainty around the outlook for household consumption remains an issue.
With the increase in the AUD since the last meeting (trade weighted index up 1.5%), the sentiment “the Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on trade-weighted basis” persists. Although in November it was described as being in the lower part of the range.
Since the last board meeting, the Bank has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). In that SoMP, it includes a graph of the wage price index (WPI) and the Bank’s forecasts. A reasonable ‘eyeball’ of the graph points to the official forecast for growth in the wage price index to reach 2.75% by end 2020. Note that at the beginning of the three previous rate hike cycles, the WPI was growing in the range of 3.5 to 4%. That forecast certainly supports the Bank’s observation that the lift in wages growth will be a gradual process. Indeed, a reasonable person might be excused for thinking that even though the rhetoric is for the next move in the cash rate to be up, the Bank expects that event to be a very long way away.
The greatest interest was always going to be in the revised assessment of conditions in the housing market. Despite recent reports of sharp falls in prices in both Sydney and Melbourne, the description of the housing market remains “conditions… have continued to ease”. A stronger description would not have been out of place.
In November, finance conditions were described as “credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time”. The description in this Statement is “credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been for some time, with some lenders having a reduced appetite to lend”( arguably a more benign description of credit conditions).
At least the commentary is more cautious on lending growth with the term “growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers… remains robust”, being replaced by a factual assessment that the annualised pace of credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased to 5-6% (that compares with a peak of 8.8% in July 2017). It is also noteworthy that new lending to owner-occupiers fell by around 10% in the two months of August and September 2018.
The final paragraph in the Statement is unchanged, noting that progress towards reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected to be gradual.
Back in early 2017, Westpac predicted that the cash rate would remain on hold through 2017 and 2018. That view was certainly not popular in markets and in consensus forecasts.
The on hold decision today finally justifies that call.
We continue to expect that the cash rate will be on hold through 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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