<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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One in three experts in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the Royal Commission will result in fewer home loans with the big banks.
Six of 18 respondents said the big four will see their home loan counts decline, with smaller lenders getting a bigger slice.
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the impact could be far-reaching. 
“A third of our experts think that consumers will move away from the big four due to trust issues and stricter lending conditions. 
“As a result, what we can expect to see is more borrowers turning to smaller and online lenders, which typically offer lower rates to lure in new customers. They often also tend to have easy-to-use platforms which can mean faster application and approval, lower fees and more personalised customer service than larger lenders.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
“Some of the poor behaviour detailed in the Royal Commission may actually lead more consumers to think twice about the big guys,” Cooke said. 
Cooke said despite the Royal Commission findings, the home loan market is great for buyers with housing prices easing. 
“With house prices tumbling, and rates at all-time lows, the outlook for housing affordability is strong. 
“It’s a great time for borrowers to consider their options and get a good deal. Remember, these days if you’re rate doesn’t have a 3 in front of it, you could be doing better,” he said. 
Every expert predicted a rate hold in today's RBA cash rate announcement, but now 75% of respondents <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rate-cuts-forecast-by-finder-rba-survey-experts">expect the next move to be a cut</a>. 
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Here’s what Finder's experts had to say: 
Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion: ​"Chances of a cut have grown, but the domestic outlook remains reasonably good employment wise and so far consumer spending remains okay despite sinking property prices on the east coast." 
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Shane Oliver, AMP Capital:​ "Things aren’t yet weak enough to push the RBA to cut but they aren’t strong enough to push it to hike either." 
Alison Booth, ANU:​ "The fundamentals do not warrant any rate changes." John Hewson, ANU:​ "Insufficient evidence yet of a slowing economy." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: ​"Labour market still robust; inflation below target." 
Tim Moore, CUA: ​“On the balance of the economic data in Australia, the RBA have clearly communicated that the risks are balanced therefore the trajectory of the cash rate from here will depend on how both downside and upside risks play out with the key hurdle to a rate cut being employment and inflation. I expect neither cash rate move in the near term." 
Trent Wiltshire, Domain:​ “The RBA has stated the outlook for the cash rate is more balanced, rather than the hiking bias seen throughout 2018. But the RBA is still keen to avoid cutting rates, so will keep the cash rate on hold.” 
Debra Landgrebe, Gateway Bank:​ "This is a watching brief, as GDP growth is slower than expected, unemployment is expected to tick up, despite the January jobs report being stronger than expected. This means that quantitative easing may be required. GDP growth is feeling the effect of property prices falling and low wage growth, which is dampening consumer spending more than expected." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni:​ "Bias is moving toward rate reduction, and while there is a case for this in my view, the RBA is likely to want to hold position for now." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "The RBA has clearly stated it is on hold for the time being." Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association:​ "Insufficient data to conclude that the poor results from end 2018 will be long lived."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"The RBA emphasised that it does not think it will need to move on rates, in either direction, in the short term. I’d agree with this sentiment. While some indicators have softened, importantly the labour market has held up well and while this continues to be the case, the RBA has time to assess the remainder of the economy and wait for the better wages and inflation metrics it desires to emerge." 
Michael Witts, ING: ​"Their recent comments suggest the outlook for rates is finely balanced." 
Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun:​ "The overall direction of interest rates appears to be at a crossroads. For now, I expect rates to stay on hold but recent mixed economic data (in particular the slowing of the housing market) not to mention what's happening internationally (political unrest, trade wars, strains on international relationships) is adding a fair degree of volatility to the economic and financial landscape, which may well last during the course of 2019. For this reason, the RBA may take a conservative approach to rate setting, erring on the side of caution. This caution may manifest itself in a rate drop, meaning, in part, the economy is not as solid as we would like. The next couple of months, leading up to the general election, will be telling."
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Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: ​"There’s somewhat of a stand-off in the housing market at the moment. The level of buyer interest is encouraging but reduced accessibility to finance is having a dampening impact on transactional activity. While this issue runs deeper than merely the cost of finance, a hold pattern remains the prudent course for the RBA in the current climate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: ​"The bank will see no need to move." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "Despite a deterioration in the outlook for the Australian and global economies, recent employment data shows that there are some economic bright spots. This means it remains too early for the RBA to shift rates just yet." 
John Caelli, ME Bank: ​"The Reserve Bank recently moved their interest rate outlook to neutral territory, so it is likely they will hold rates for the near future. With growth and inflation forecasts downgraded, the focus will be on the housing market and unemployment for signs of stress." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: ​"The RBA has acknowledged that our economy is weaker and the likelihood that the next movement in rates is down. However, it is hoping for employment growth to buoy our economy and it is likely to wait a month or two and see how our property markets are faring before acting." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University:​ "RBA held off raising rates with house prices rising for 3 years. It would be staggering if they cut after 12 months of falls, given a generally stable economy." 
Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice:​ "I predict the RBA to hold the rate in March and beyond until it has a better handle on what’s really happening locally with consumers and because there are no major external drivers, such as the Fed, to shift. In February, the Fed left the key interest rate unchanged and said it would be patient in the face of a mounting set of risks, including slowing growth in China and Europe, Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations and the effects of the five-week U.S. government shutdown. Back in Australia, the RBA’s prediction of 3% economic growth this year (and 2.75% growth next year), may be too optimistic, say some economists. Softer growth numbers mean higher unemployment, which would suggest a rate cut down the track. The RBA will be keeping a keen eye on the housing market, especially the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne. With the housing adjustment threatening to spill over into the wider economy, the (negative) wealth effect may increase consumer desire to save and curb consumer spending, which in turn impacts retail and the wider economy. As we have seen this month, there are a lot of moving parts with the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to global economic uncertainties. Looking ahead, we will ideally see credit flow to borrowers to support the housing market, an increase in residential construction, and property investors encouraged to get back into the market." 
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Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: ​"Waiting for December quarter GDP data to be released March 6. If there is another weaker than expected result, the odds will narrow for a pre-Budget, pre Federal Election cut in April or May. Although recent wage data was reasonable (not good, not bad), RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut. This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"RBA still watching the economy, the consumer and wages."
Andrew Reeve-Parker, NW Advice Pty Limited: ​"Sufficient economic activity is balancing housing market concerns."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: ​"Holding is the bank's inclination." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT:​ "There is no way they will raise them and a drop would be premature." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"Although the case is building for the next move to be a cut, I think that on balance, the data coming out is still too mixed. Unemployment is still very low even though we are still not seeing this flow through to consumer sentiment." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: ​"The RBA has recently shifted toward a more neutral stance, and acknowledged that downside risks have increased. It however, is maintaining its central view that the unemployment rate will gradually fall. While the debate has shifted away from the next move being a hike, the RBA doesn't appear to be ready to cut rates either. " 
Clement Allan Tisdell, The University of Queensland: ​"Comments of the Governor of the RBA lead me to believe the cash rate will be held." 
Richard Holden, UNSW: ​"[The RBA is] waiting for new inflation numbers before they make a move." 
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Other participants: ​Bill Evans, Westpac. 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Can the big banks bounce back? What the experts say on the rate hold

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Over 75 percent of experts who take part in Finder's RBA cash rate survey now believe the next cash rate movement will be a cut.
It was only three months ago that nearly 80% of the panel said the next move would be a hike in rates.  
All 31 experts and economists in Finder’s RBA cash rate survey are expecting a hold at 1.50% on Tuesday.
In the survey, some experts (9/17) forecasted the cash rate would drop to 1.00% before the year is out. 
<img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/6H6ujOQULbreyLK_e1tnJt_-7d1iW_pes0QiNJ4CsYfYK6kzFXHFUA5BwGCTMIJQYhLVOg115s7X0YL2WlvCYa-4C82ARt4mFir70zD9oHqYHjNOVck0-oCHbvGP7beM5mKmXYY1" width="602" height="356"> 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said August and November were the most popular months for a forecasted cut. “Last month, I said the drop to 40% (of economists who believe the next rate move will be upwards) was the most dramatic I had seen in four years of running this survey.
"This month, that drama is elevated with just one in four believing this to be the case. “With the housing market continuing to tumble, and other global and international economic factors looking grim, experts seem to be sure we’re looking at at least one cut in 2019, if not two,” Cooke said.  Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said an easing of of the cash rate is overdue. "Although recent wage data was reasonable – not good, not bad – RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut," Wilson said.
“This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – has also seen a significant shift.
<img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/L6j8b0wD64XNexZl-5Ct5HiRZWdclM8O8c0DNQgpwpnUiBMOzEt2U7zLECOQ3TEGgs6NhexKJtu3wVfIGz__5CMB6iCW_qT-Qp80u0b5MZh02mkiiUydzTgvIam3522DbJvN6iJL" width="602" height="419">
This month’s tracker set three all-time marks, one positive and two negative. Positive economic sentiment in housing affordability reached its highest level recorded, while positive sentiment for employment and wage growth dropped to their lowest levels. Cooke said the economic sentiment and rate cut predictions signal good news for would-be mortgage holders, but a different story for savers. “Potential first home buyers with a deposit saved are in an overwhelmingly advantageous position in this market. But it doesn’t all start and end with a purchase – any buyer needs to be taking a long-term view with their finances, and be shopping around online for the best possible home loan rate and features. “As for savers, anybody who relies on their savings as a form of income, such as retirees, may soon be making far less interest on their nest egg – so now is the time to take action,” he said. Cooke said savers need a new plan of attack if rates do indeed drop as forecast. “Savers should start to plan for these cuts by looking into term deposits and considering researching different types of investment opportunities,” he said.
 <img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/tkQBLRwViCYEamShi9wYWeeSETVwcsy1cSVlQGvEO7h1Stsl_rkAZseVLDcFofUuIOKhlXZzgjZntvCBga47FxCcg9g9DZaFtYUfKXR60EThTIBZeTllLkOxygh9iL7goLoXyZ33" width="602" height="392"> 
 
 
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Rate cuts forecast by Finder RBA survey experts

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A “granny flat agreement” is an informal arrangement between a parent and their adult child or children. The parent (often elderly) contributes funds to create granny flat accommodation either by modifying a home or by buying a suitable property in the name of the children. In return they agree to provide the parent with a lifetime right to live in the granny flat, or at least until the parent needs residential care.
Many of these arrangements work out well. The older person then enjoys the love and support of having their family close by as they age.
When an arrangement of this kind goes wrong, however, it can seriously threaten the wealth, autonomy and dignity of the elderly parent. If the relationship between the parent and child, or child’s spouse, breaks down and the parent is asked to leave the property, he or she may be left with nothing.
How does the law treat granny flats?
The parent’s only chance of recovering her contribution is to go to court. These court cases depend on applying a complex set of rules.
The parent must prove the contribution was not a gift but that they supplied funds as part of an arrangement that the parties would live together. Agreements creating interests in land need to be <a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/#/view/act/1919/6/part4/div1/sec54a" target="_blank">in writing</a>, and usually there is no written agreement.
The court can apply <a href="https://www.translegal.com/legal-english-dictionary/equitable-principle" target="_blank">equitable principles</a>. A parent who contributed to improving the property ought to have the contributions back, or a proportionate share of the property returned if the arrangement ends prematurely, because it is unjust for children to retain the benefit of the contribution without providing the granny flat.
Where the court finds that the parent relied on a promise by the child that the parent would have an interest in the house, or at least a right to live with the child for life, the child can be required to repay the contribution.
This often means the child must sell their house if they cannot refinance to obtain the money to pay the parent. If the parent is entitled to a share of the property, the house has to be sold to realise the parent’s share.
The problem for parents is that court cases cost money, unless Legal Aid is available, but only parents who are truly destitute qualify for assistance. The parent has to produce evidence of the arrangement or the promise. They often have to recount conversations from many years ago to prove there was an arrangement. The children have to spend money on their own lawyers.
Parents and children very rarely put these agreements in writing and almost never consult a lawyer. Sometimes, to help the child get finance, a parent may have told the lender the contribution was a gift.
All this makes court cases complex, difficult and expensive.
In New South Wales, the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/%7E/view/act/1984/147" target="_blank">Property (Relationships) Act 1984</a> may apply to granny flat disputes, but the parent still has to show how they contributed to the child’s property. Other states and territories – including <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ra2008173/" target="_blank">Victoria</a>, <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/LZ/C/A/DOMESTIC%20PARTNERS%20PROPERTY%20ACT%201996/CURRENT/1996.51.AUTH.PDF" target="_blank">South Australia</a>, <a href="http://www7.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/tas/consol_act/ra2003173/" target="_blank">Tasmania</a> and <a href="http://www7.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/act/consol_act/dra1994253/" target="_blank">ACT</a> – have similar laws for couples, which might apply to family arrangements. However, the NSW legislation is broader, which makes things worse for parents outside NSW.
When a dispute arises, the parties usually want to resolve the matter as quickly and as cheaply as possible. But court cases can take a year or more to get to hearing. Affidavits must be prepared and financial documents reviewed. During this time the parent may be living in emergency housing, often at public expense.
The picture gets worse if the child’s marriage breaks down. The parent’s claim then gets taken into family property proceedings between the child and their spouse in the Family Court or Federal Circuit Court. This can take even longer than going to the Supreme Court.
A better way to resolve disputes
Parties to these disputes need fast access to a system of practical rules for separating the parties’ property interests, and one that offers early mediation. These rules would cover factors such as increases in the value of the property, how long the parties lived together, what benefits they received, and other discretionary considerations. Such rules might provide the basis for a set of statutory guidelines for a tribunal to apply.
Civil and administrative tribunals <a href="http://www.ncat.nsw.gov.au/Pages/going_to_the_tribunal/going_to_the_tribunal.aspx" target="_blank">emphasise informality and conciliation</a>, so giving these tribunals jurisdiction to resolve granny flat disputes according to statutory guidelines would arguably be more efficient than going to the Supreme Court or Family Court.
Parties really should seek legal advice on granny flat arrangements before they commit to the deal. But parents often trust their children and are optimistic that they can live together as a family. If a lawyer provides advice to an elderly parent individually and with an awareness of their client’s possible incapacity or vulnerability to undue influence, that gives all parties a chance to decide what they want to happen if the relationship breaks down.
Centrelink <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/money/how-to-give-property-to-your-kids-and-keep-the-age-pension-20151118-gl1ypg" target="_blank">recognises granny flat arrangements</a>, so parents’ contributions are not automatically <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/enablers/gifting" target="_blank">treated as a gift</a>. Gifting attracts an asset test under which the parent might be deemed still to have the funds contributed, which could reduce their pension.
The children can also be worse off if the Tax Office considers that the child accepting the contribution made a capital gain because the parents’ contribution increased the value of the home.
Although the Australian Law Reform Commission has <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/publications/elder-abuse-report" target="_blank">looked at some aspects of this issue</a>, action is need to reduce the complexity of existing equitable and statutory rules. Elderly parents should not have to take their children to court in expensive legal proceedings to retrieve the contribution that was meant to ensure they had a secure home in their later years.
Patricia Lane, Senior Lecturer, University of Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-granny-flats-go-wrong-perils-for-parents-highlight-need-for-law-reform-103335" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

When granny flats go wrong – perils for parents highlight need for law reform

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Let's take a considered look at S&amp;P's mortgage arrears.
Basically unchanged throughout 2018 at 1.38% for 30+ day arrears. 
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Vo8SaZNYHOY/XGz3wSX9jCI/AAAAAAAAukc/e-f-TJrPVXQ6rwdaW0bW0UfV4GEgRBzxACLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="592" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="797"></div>
 90+ day arrears are now up a notch to 0.75%.
<div>That's mainly related to major banks locking interest-only (IO) borrowers in as they roll over to P&amp;I loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this could be a drag on consumption most IO borrowers have buffers measured in years, and most didn't borrow anywhere near to their maximum capacity either.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'd argue that most of the little mortgage stress that there is has been inflicted by excruciating mortgage regulation rather than rising unemployment, mortgage rates, or over-stretched borrowers. Weakness in Western Australia's economy is the other main contributory factor. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, job vacancies are at record highs according to the ABS surveys, both in absolute terms and as a share of the labour force.  The unemployment rate is also at the lowest level in 6½ years at just 4.98%, while the respective unemployment rates in New South Wales and Victoria are actually the lowest on record. </div>
 
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hy-30cTR-MI/XGz3vrZOGoI/AAAAAAAAukU/RQ2aHjaL1rADByCjEKtZjfV83mPpaFXBgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1377"></div>
 
<div>The main deterioration in arrears has clearly been in Western Australia, now at 2.73% for 30+ day arrears.</div>
 
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-G6W_dyRJsAs/XGz3vsE1gzI/AAAAAAAAukY/Kwhx1eVp658hbZ3Qx5Ty-bm9WjanrF38wCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1395"></div>
 And non-confirming arrears remain close to their lowest ever level. 
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pZl-i00tyY0/XGz3vhO-h_I/AAAAAAAAukQ/nwOfbvqfZoQFE4QwTJSnZHLnQ8SeNzT_wCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1396"></div>
 Unemployment is low, mortgage rates are low, and there are plenty of job openings. Banks just need to lend on a more reasonable and timely basis.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Arrears pain is dull but mortgage regulation is excruciating: Pete Wargent 

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year.
We have revised down our GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% to 2.2%. With the slower growth profile we now expect to see the unemployment rate lift to 5.5% by late 2019. That makes a strong case for official rate cuts to cushion the downturn and, in turn, meet the RBA’s medium term objectives.
The Reserve Bank recently revised down its growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 3.25% and 3.0% to 3.0% and 2.75% respectively. It also cut its estimate for 2018 from 3.5% to 2.75%.
Momentum in 2018 slowed dramatically through the year. The annualised growth rate in the first half was 4% whereas in the second half we estimate that the pace slowed to 1.5%.
Moving from a 1.5% pace to a 3% pace in 2019 seems to be a very large stretch.
Westpac’s growth forecast in 2019 and 2020 has been a much weaker 2.6% in each year but even that number now appears too high.
Our new forecast for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 is 2.2%.
In particular, we have been expecting only a modest impact on consumer spending from the likely negative wealth effect associated with falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
Our growth forecasts have assumed a lift in the savings rate across 2019 from 2.4% to 2.9%. That would be consistent with consumption growth of 2.4%. Note that we expect momentum in consumption growth in the second half of 2018 to be closer to 1.5%.
A more reasonable assessment of the lift in the savings rate in 2019 is from 2.4% to 3.5% with a lift towards 5.0% expected in 2020. Those savings rates imply consumer spending growth around 2%.
That lift assumes that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will continue to fall through 2019. Our estimates of the need to restore affordability and the impact of tighter lending standards on prices point to falls of around 5%-10% in Sydney and Melbourne over the course of 2019 complemented by softness in other markets.
Absent any policy response from the RBA we expect that further falls will be necessary in 2020 before stability in these markets will be achieved.
These headwinds for the housing market and activity are also apparent in developments around credit. In the second half of 2018 new lending for housing fell by 14.9% with both investors (-15.5%) and owner occupiers (-14.7%) being affected. This is a sharper correction than
we had anticipated. These falls are a combination of both demand (concerns around falling prices and stretched affordability) and supply (new regulations and caution from some lenders in a falling market).
We expect these falls, albeit at a much slower pace, to continue through 2019 representing a negative feedback loop to prices.
That negative wealth effect is therefore likely to persist through 2020 with a further extension of the soft profile for consumer spending.
Other important dynamics will be around the sharp downturn in residential housing construction. We have revised down our forecast for residential housing construction in 2019 to –10% from –7% and –5% in 2020 from –3%. We also envisage a weaker profile for business equipment investment as businesses adjust their plans to a softening growth environment.
Overall we have revised down our GDP growth rates in 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% in both years to 2.2% respectively.
Consumer spending; residential housing construction and equipment investment are all key to the outlook for jobs growth.
With reasonable estimates for the participation rate our weaker jobs growth profile has the unemployment rate lifting to 5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020.
Our process for forecasting monetary policy has always been to assume that the economy will evolve as we expect and then to anticipate the policy response once the authorities react to the new reality.
The decision by the Reserve Bank Board to accept the possibility that interest rates could fall further, despite the current record low levels, is profoundly important.
We can now be confident that if our growth profile does evolve the Reserve Bank will be prepared to act. Prior to this more balanced approach to rates it was reasonable to assume that it was most reluctant to lower rates. The view seemed to be that the adjustment in the housing market was a necessary development with limited spill over effects on the rest of the economy.
Lowering rates, as we last saw in 2016, would only disrupt that adjustment while the rest of the economy was not in need of further stimulus.
The approach now seems to be that the spill over effects to the rest of the economy are real and the “adjustment” process may be more substantial than earlier anticipated. Certainly the collapse in new lending and sharp falls in house prices would be attracting considerable attention.
Note that the current view of the Reserve Bank is GDP growth of 3% in 2019; and 2.75% in 2020. That profile is, in their view, consistent with a gradual fall in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.75% by end 2020.
The rise in the unemployment rate which we envisage through 2019 will not be severe since unit labour costs are contained and labour enjoys a relative cost advantage over capital. However it will be contrary to the Reserve Bank’s expectations and prompt a significant revision to the 4.75% forecast for 2020.
When might this decision be taken?
The forces around a slowing economy, falling house prices, and weak consumer spending are already apparent. However the current forecasts do not indicate that the Bank expects these conditions to persist.
Recognition of this persistence is likely to take some time, but not too much time. Our preferred estimate would be the August Board meeting. A full explanation of the reasons behind the decision can be set out in the August Statement on Monetary Policy.
That timing will also allow two more inflation prints to confirm that the further widening of the output gap, as growth remains stuck well below trend, is constraining inflation with little likelihood of achieving the current forecast of 2.25% inflation in 2020.
A second cut at the November Board meeting is likely to follow.
Unlike the response of the markets in 2016 to two rate cuts we do not expect that these two cuts will immediately stabilise housing markets. However there will be sufficient progress for the Reserve Bank to resume its cautious stance.
Adjustments will also be accommodated by the Australian dollar, possibly in lieu of even lower rates.
Partially offsetting our weaker profile for the AUD will be more “patience” on the part of the Federal Reserve with the federal funds rate. Following my trip to the US over the last few weeks where I met with a number of officials and market participants it is clear that even if the Federal Reserve decides that higher rates will be necessary it will take considerable time to make the case.
Accordingly we have eliminated our forecast for hikes in the federal funds rate in June and September leaving one more hike in December to recognise the need to finally settle on the neutral rate setting.
The net impact of these forecast changes is for a further 25bp deterioration in the overnight cash rate differential. That puts downside risks to our current target of USD 0.68 for the AUD in the second half of 2019 particularly if the expected cuts from the Reserve Bank are ineffective in settling markets.
The Risks to This Rate Outlook
Housing markets may stabilise more quickly than we anticipate and the extended negative wealth effect may not materialise.
The labour market may hold up more strongly than we expect. (Note the January Employment Report showing 39,000 new jobs). Certainly evidence from other countries points to unusually strong labour markets despite other less constructive developments in these countries. A relative improvement in the cost of labour may hold up labour markets despite soft demand conditions. Unit labour costs in Australia have been flat for many years.
We may be overestimating the appetite of the RBA to respond to the environment we are describing.
Wages growth may lift more quickly than we expect, boosting household incomes and supporting spending despite a negative wealth effect. That lift may be supplemented by unexpected increases in the terms of trade as China boosts its own growth through housing and infrastructure. On the other hand while this is a perfectly reasonable scenario, there is still likely to be little flow through from higher commodity prices to household incomes as mining companies remain cautious. Mining wages continue to languish highlighting the limited effect a strong terms of trade has on the broader economy.
There is mixed evidence around wealth effects in other countries although the scale of the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne is too large to downplay.
Conclusion
Since the last rate cut in August 2016 Westpac has consistently held the line that the RBA cash rate would remain on hold for the foreseeable future (a standard two to three year window). That has been despite markets, the RBA and most economists expecting higher rates.
To an extent this view was influenced by the perception that the Bank welcomed the adjustment in the housing markets and saw insignificant spill over effects to the rest of the economy.
The recent change of rhetoric from the Bank on that issue is important.
Our revised growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts now make a convincing case for lower rates.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Westpac now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate twice: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Hayne Royal Commission began and ended with strident criticism of the mortgage broking industry.
It recommended brokers be required to act in the “best interests” of intending borrowers, and that intending borrowers, rather than the successful lender, pay the broker’s fee.
So-called “trailing” annual payments from lenders would be outlawed as soon as possible and upfront commissions outlawed after two or three years.
It’s the only set of recommendations the government has been lukewarm about adopting, announcing instead that while brokers will be required to act in the best interests of borrowers and from July 1 2020 will no longer be able to accept new trailing commissions, decisions about upfront commissions will be delayed until a further review, to take place “in three years time”.
The government is right to be cautious.
What’s the problem with commissions?
Both the royal commission and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission are concerned commissions:
<ul>
<li>encourage brokers to recommend mortgages that borrowers cannot plausibly afford</li>
<li>cause the broker to recommend higher paying products over lower paying products, potentially to the detriment of borrowers.</li>
</ul>
So what’s the go with brokers?
Typically a borrower approaches a broker who works with banks to secure a loan.
According to ASIC, the method of payment is fairly standard:
<ul>
<li>the broker receives a commission from banks for each successful home loan. The commission is often divided into an upfront payment and a trailing commission, which is paid over time</li>
<li>the lender benefits because it can spread its commission expenses over time and can also terminate commissions if it believes a broker has behaved badly</li>
<li>the commission rates are relatively similar across lenders, with upfront commissions typically ranging from 0.46% to 0.65% of the loan amount, about $3,000 on a $500,000 loan. Trailing commissions typically range from 0.1% to 0.35% of the ongoing loan, about $1,000 per year on a $500,000 loan</li>
<li>lenders can also offer bonus payments, loyalty payments and “soft dollar commissions” which take many forms, including overseas conferences and holidays, shopping vouchers and tickets to sporting events</li>
<li>loan aggregators can also play a role. They provide back-office support and ancillary services to brokers. Some are partly owned by banks. These banks receive a slightly larger share of loans from brokers who deal with these aggregators than from brokers that don’t.</li>
</ul>
In practice brokers often provide good service
ASIC research finds that regardless of the conflicted remuneration structure the interest rates brokers obtain for clients are not significantly worse (or better) than those obtained by borrowers who deal with banks direct.
Their clients are slightly different, on average two years younger than bank clients and with incomes about A$6,000 lower. Brokers’ clients borrow slightly more than direct bank clients and their loans are more likely to be interest only.
Although until now legislation has not compelled brokers to act in clients’ best interests, other professional standards often do so.
And brokers are keen to get referrals and repeat business, which relies on brokers providing good service in the first place.
They’ve little incentive to push bad loans
Because banks compete for business, they tend to pay similar commissions, in much the same way as they tend to charge similar interest rates. It means that in practice there is isn’t much incentive for a broker to recommend one lender over another. This is especially so when you factor in the desire to get repeat business, and referrals, which they would lose if they pushed poor products.
And it is hard to recommend unnecessary loans. Borrowers usually come to brokers to arrange loans for homes they are already planning to buy. There aren’t that many extra dollars in recommending clients borrow more, and even if brokers did recommend higher loans they would still be subject to banks’ serviceability and equity checks.
At the moment banks are highly reluctant to lend large sums at high loan-to-valuation ratios.
All this means that commissions have a muted effect on brokers’ lending recommendations, with conflicts being ameliorated by the practical reality of commission homogenisation and the desire for repeat business and referrals.
And if commissions went…
If commissions went, brokers would have to be paid by borrowers.
Many borrowers would baulk at the fees, and would go to banks instead. This would increase banks’ costs, which could be passed on through additional borrowing fees. It would also increase the time borrowers must devote to sorting through potential lenders.
Some borrowers who lack financial expertise would then have to rely on banks’ advice, rather than brokers’; and, banks are hardly less independent about their products than are brokers.
It would be the smaller brokers that would suffer the most, some going out of business. Larger brokers would also be affected, but less so, due to economies of scale. The end result would be fewer brokers and less access to advice.
It’d be an unintended consequence of what Hayne recommended, and perhaps an unnecessary one.
While there are always bad apples in every industry, removing commissions would be a blunt – and potentially unnecessary – instrument with plenty of downsides. <img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111631/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Mark Humphery-Jenner, Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/honest-brokers-why-mortgage-broker-commissions-arent-the-problem-111631" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Why mortgage broker commissions aren’t the problem: Mark Humphery-Jenner

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Data for lending to households and businesses data for December 2018 was released earlier this week.
This data series replaces the old housing finance and lending finance series and includes some different data. Specifically focusing on lending to households the data shows that the weakening of demand for mortgages has continued.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png" alt="pic1.png" width="842" height="355" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bb33c8c9-5ed9-47d3-a589-bf7f9843bf66" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png">
 As the above chart shows, investor mortgage lending has been weakening for some time however, over recent months there has been a rapid slowdown in lending to owner-occupiers. Over the month, there was a total of $26.0 billion in mortgage finance to borrowers which was the lowest monthly value since January 2014. The value of mortgage lending has fallen -5.2% over the month and is -15.2% year-on-year. Looking at the split between owner-occupier and investor mortgage lending, there was $18.5 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers which was -5.3% lower than the previous month and its lowest value since May 2015. The remaining $7.5 billion worth of finance to investors was -4.8% lower over the month and the lowest monthly value since April 2013. While the slowdown in mortgage demand began, and is well entrenched, across the investor segment, owner-occupier mortgage demand is now also falling rapidly.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png" alt="pic2.png" width="802" height="338" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b08c7e3c-d4d4-48b8-9ecd-078d9723d53f" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png">
 Looking a little more granularly at the data, over the month there was $12.5 billion worth of owner-occupier finance commitments excluding refinance, $6.0 billion worth of owner occupier refinance commitments, $4.9 billion worth of non-refinance commitments to investors and $2.6 billion worth of investor refinances. The chart highlights a weakening of demand across each of these four categories however, refinance demand is generally holding up better than non-refinance. New lending to owner-occupiers is the lowest it has been since May 2015, owner occupier refinances are the lowest they’ve been since August 2017, investor new lending is at its lowest value since January 2012 and investor refinance lending is the lowest it has been since August 2018. 
The data clearly shows that housing finance commitments are falling the bigger question is what is the actual driver of the falls. According to recent commentary from the Reserve Bank in their Statement on Monetary Policy, demand is falling because of ‘significantly fewer loan applications over the past year or more.’ Personally, I am not necessarily convinced this is the only reason.
The volumes that eventually make their way to lending teams are likely to be significantly lower but is this actually occurring because of fewer people wanting a mortgage or fewer making it that far? I suspect that demand has certainly fallen but possibly it has fallen a greater amount because people are talking to the bank lender or mortgage broker and the feedback they are given is that there is no point applying because with current credit conditions this just isn’t going to get approved.
Looking at it another way, credit conditions remain tighter than they have been in many years. Although the 10% cap on investment credit growth and 30% interest-only origination limit have been removed (largely because they became redundant), both investor and interest-only borrowers continue to be charged a premium compared to owner-occupier mortgages. Furthermore, lenders are now asking a lot more questions about household expenditure than they have in the past rather than relying on an index of household expenditure. Although this may be a new normal, in the past, potential borrowers perhaps haven’t had to be so mindful of their expenditure prior to a mortgage application and there will be a period of adjustment to these new conditions.
In the past borrowers have tended to adjust their expenditure appropriately once they have taken on the mortgage rather than now when the adjustment has to be made prior to obtaining approval for the mortgage. Finally, when applying for a mortgage, borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at an interest rate above 7% while most lenders will offer a new borrower a discounted variable at around or below 4%. The current cash rate futures yield curve is now suggesting a reduction in official interest rates is more likely than a hike. In my mind, 7% mortgage rates are a long way off and we won’t be getting back to those levels absent some decent household income growth.
While in isolation these individual changes to credit policy changes may not remove many potential borrowers, the combination of these changes likely result in far fewer borrowers being considered credit-worthy for a mortgage. Therefore, while application volumes are likely lower, the blame can’t solely be pointed at fewer applications when the process for applying for a mortgage has changed so dramatically over recent years.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Is it tighter credit or fewer applications hitting mortgage demand? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting for February have largely confirmed the themes which were set out in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
Key to these themes is “the probabilities around these scenarios were now more evenly balanced than they had been over the preceding year when an eventual increase in the cash rate had appeared more likely”. Of course, the two scenarios relate to an eventual increase and an eventual decrease in the cash rate.
The policy outlook is firmly linked to progress in reducing the unemployment rate and moving the inflation rate back into the 2-3% policy band.
The risks around the outlook centre on the household sector and dwelling investment. The Bank remains generally comfortable with the outlook for business investment; government spending and external conditions.
Clearly, developments in the housing market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are attracting considerably more attention than we had seen in the minutes of meetings held in 2018. In particular, the Bank’s current position that the effect of recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small is noted.
However, in a very significant warning around the policy outlook, the minutes state “if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast”. This statement directly links developments in house prices to the Bank’s key policy forecasts.
The causal mechanism would be around a larger wealth effect than currently expected impacting consumer spending, and a sharper downturn in residential building activity than has been recognised, even in the Bank’s new much more subdued forecasts relative to the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Note that for the record, the RBA’s GDP growth is forecast at 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. These forecasts are down from 3.25% in 2019, and 3% in 2020. The downward revisions are largely attributed to softer consumption growth and a sharper downturn in dwelling investment.
Westpac has long argued that the RBA’s previous growth forecasts were too high, and indeed, our current forecasts for 2019 and 2020 of 2.6% are still below the RBA’s numbers.
The RBA’s handle on the outlook for housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne appears tenuous. The minutes note that the recent falls “were relatively large by historical standards, and that it was unusual for housing prices to fall significantly in an environment of low mortgage interest rates and a declining unemployment rate”.
Note that in previous periods of falling house prices, large interest rate cuts have followed, and were successful in stabilising the markets.
The current period of low mortgage rates means that the usual policy response to stabilise markets with large rate cuts will not be possible, and it is therefore not unreasonable to expect that further falls in house prices may occur.
Based on the comments in these minutes, such an outcome is likely to lead to further downward revisions in the RBA’s forecasts.
Conclusion
The minutes note that financial market pricing implied that the Australian cash rate was expected to remain unchanged for a considerable period with some expectation of a decrease by late 2019.
Over most of last year when markets; the RBA, and most economists were forecasting higher rates, Westpac’s view was consistently that rates would remain on hold in 2019 and 2020. That was largely because our growth, inflation and employment forecasts did not justify higher rates.
Our current forecasts remain lower than those of the RBA and we therefore expect that, over time, the RBA will further revise down their forecasts.
However  we do not think that those downward revisions will be sufficient to trigger a rate cut. As usual, our forecasts will continue to be reviewed.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA emphasises the importance of house prices: Bill Evans

Minutes of February 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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RBA members have noted their uncertainty about the extent and speed of the downturn in the dwelling investment cycle.
Dwelling investment was likely to have been close to its peak in the second half of 2018, the February minutes of the central bank advised.
"Although there was still a large pipeline of residential work to be done and few signs that projects already under way were being cancelled, it had become more difficult for new apartment projects to obtain finance, and building approvals were the lowest they had been for five years. 
"As a result, dwelling investment was expected to remain at a high level in the near term, but then to decline faster than previously expected."
From a longer-run perspective, the RBA members assessed that, following such large increases in housing prices, the effect of the recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small. 
"However, members observed that if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast. 
"From a financial stability perspective, tighter lending standards, an improving labour market and low interest rates were all likely to support households' capacity to service their debt. 
"Few households were in negative equity positions despite the falls in housing prices, implying that banks' losses would be limited even if household financial stress were to become more widespread."
Members spent some time considering a paper on the implications of recent developments in housing markets for the economic outlook.
After rising by almost 50 percent over the five years to September 2017, national housing prices had fallen by around 8 per cent to be back around mid-2016 levels.
Members noted the significantly different developments in housing prices across the country.
Housing prices had fallen by 12 percent in Sydney and by 9 percent in Melbourne from their peaks in 2017.
There had also been significant falls in housing prices in Perth and Darwin over recent years.
By contrast, housing prices in Hobart and Canberra had increased over 2018, while housing prices in Adelaide, Brisbane and many regional centres had been flat.
Members noted that the cumulative falls in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne were relatively large by historical standards, and that it was unusual for housing prices to fall significantly in an environment of low mortgage interest rates and a declining unemployment rate.
Members noted that some of the dynamics in housing prices could be explained by the fact that the supply of housing does not respond quickly to changes in demand.
In particular, the run-up in housing prices had occurred during a period when housing supply had not picked up sufficiently to match higher demand from more rapid population growth.
Over time, higher housing prices had eventually led to a sizeable increase in supply, but this had taken longer than in previous cycles.
Another factor weighing on prices was a noticeable decline in demand from foreign buyers in recent years, which had also been apparent in housing markets in some other economies.
The RBA minutes noted rental vacancy rates are one key indicator of the balance of supply and demand in the housing market.
In most states, rental vacancies had been around or somewhat below average at the end of 2018, suggesting supply and demand for housing had been roughly balanced.
In Melbourne, despite the fall in prices and large increase in supply, the vacancy rate had declined.
By contrast, rental vacancies in Sydney had been increasing and advertised rents had fallen.
Members also noted that housing credit growth had declined further in preceding months and that there had been a notable drop in loan approvals by the major banks.
Growth in lending to investors had slowed sharply since mid 2017 to be close to zero, while growth in lending to owner-occupiers had moderated to around 5½ per cent in six-month-ended annualised terms.
The slower growth in lending for housing over the preceding year appeared to reflect weaker demand, the minutes advised.
"Nevertheless, credit conditions for some borrowers had remained tighter than they had been for some time following the strengthening of lending policies and practices over recent years.
"Liaison with mortgage brokers suggested that the increased public scrutiny associated with the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry may have led some individual loan assessors at banks to apply stricter criteria than specified in official lending requirements.
"However, banks reported that while loan assessors had been referring more approvals to credit officers, final loan approval rates had remained high.
"Moreover, lenders had continued to compete for borrowers of high credit quality by offering new loans at lower interest rates than those offered on existing loans."
To read the full minutes, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/minutes-of-february-2019-monetary-policy-meeting-of-the-reserve-bank-board">click here.</a>
 
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