<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economic expansion is continuing and unemployment rates in most advanced economies are low. There are, however, some signs of a slowdown in global trade, partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector. Globally, inflation remains low, although it has increased due to the earlier lift in oil prices and faster wages growth. A further pick-up in core inflation is expected given the tight labour markets and, in the United States, the sizeable fiscal stimulus.
Financial conditions in the advanced economies remain expansionary but have tightened somewhat. Equity prices have declined and credit spreads have moved a little higher. There has also been a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar this year. In Australia, money-market interest rates have declined, after increasing earlier in the year. Standard variable mortgage rates are a little higher than a few months ago and the rates charged to new borrowers for housing are generally lower than for outstanding loans.
The Australian economy is performing well. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over this year and next, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector.
Australia's terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years and have been stronger than earlier expected. This has helped boost national income. Most commodity prices have, however, declined recently, with oil prices falling significantly. The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis.
The outlook for the labour market remains positive. The unemployment rate is 5 per cent, the lowest in six years. With the economy expected to continue to grow above trend, a further reduction in the unemployment rate is likely. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. The stronger labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
Inflation remains low and stable. Over the past year, CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent and in underlying terms inflation was 1¾ per cent. Inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2¼ per cent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year.
Conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low. Credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been for some time, with some lenders having a reduced appetite to lend. The demand for credit by investors in the housing market has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased to an annualised pace of 5–6 per cent. Mortgage rates remain low, with competition strongest for borrowers of high credit quality.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
Source <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-31" target="_blank">RBA</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Dynamics of housing market have changed: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

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The December meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 28 consecutive months, and 26 consecutive meetings.
The August rate hold marked the two year anniversary of the last change to the cash rate by the RBA.  
Australian mortgage holders could "go a decade without experiencing an increase in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), says mortgage broker 1300HomeLoan Managing Director John Kolenda.
"Its last rate rise from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent was way back in November, 2010.
“Since the central bank last lifted official rates there have been 12 rate reductions, with the RBA now staying on the sidelines for more than two years,” Mr Kolenda said.
“With no evidence of a significant improvement in the domestic economy, many forecasters expect the cash rate will remain on hold through 2019 and also the following year.
“That means a whole generation of mortgage holders could go an entire decade without seeing official rates rise, although they will have experienced out of cycle rate movements from lenders.”
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said its hard to gauge the RBA's view on housing market conditions.
"The longest period of interest rate stability on record has extended out another month, with the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold at 1.5% where it has remained since they cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in May and August of 2016. 
"Considering the diversity of economic conditions, the hold decision comes as no surprise. 
"Labour markets are improving, but wages growth remains sluggish and inflation has softened. 
"It’s a bit harder to gauge the RBA’s view on housing market conditions, with the RBA continuing to call out weakening conditions in Sydney and Melbourne. 
"CoreLogic data to the end of November highlighted that the Sydney market has already recorded a 9.5% decline in values since peaking in July last year and will likely surpass the previous record peak to trough decline of 9.6% which was set during the last recession between 1989 and 1991.
"Despite this weakness in the largest cites, dwelling values in Sydney remain 41% higher than they were five years ago and Melbourne values are still 38% higher both of which show five year growth rates well in excess of most other capital city markets. 
"Additionally, five of the eight capital cities have posted a capital gain over year to date however, from a macro view they have much less of an influence on the national figures than Sydney and Melbourne do.
"To date we haven’t seen the housing downturn impacting on household consumption or saving, however this is likely to be a key factor the RBA will be monitoring.  
Siobhan Hayden, COO of online home loan marketplace HashChing, said Christmas is the best time to hunt around for a new home loan.
“The Christmas and New Year period is an expensive time of year, and one that forces many of us to consider our current financial position. The great thing is that it’s also a highly competitive season in the market – making it the perfect time to hunt around for a new home loan, or even help a loved one find the best rate on theirs.
“It’s fantastic to see an uptick in borrower’s actively taking charge of their financial position and getting ahead of likely interest rate rises in 2019.”
“As anticipated, falling house prices have warmed the market, particularly in the lower end of the market (&gt;$1.3m), however with the cash rate expected to increase next year it will be interesting to see whether this demand continues."
HashChing's broker survey found almost half (48 per cent) of the brokers surveyed agree with Morgan Stanley’s forecast that national house prices could fall by up to 15 per cent in 2019. 
 
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RBA leaves cash rate unchanged through 2018 at 1.5 percent at December meeting

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The RBA survey of experts from Finder.com.au has seen 94 percent say tightening lending practices could negatively effect the economy.
Anticipating a tightening of lending practices following the Royal Commission, 80% of the twenty experts and economists polled in the survey​ say that it will be increasingly difficult for small businesses to access credit. 
Half the experts predict businesses to turn to smaller lenders rather than relying on the big four banks. 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, said the increased scrutiny from the Royal Commission on the larger institutions means now is the time for smaller lenders to shine.
“Increased oversight creates stricter lending criteria which usually means the smaller players can’t access cash as easily. 
“There is a big opportunity here for smaller lenders to gain an edge over the big banks due to the increasingly competitive market.”
All 32 members of the survey predicted a rate hold today, while the confidence in the next cash rate being a hike has waned since September.
Of the 27 expert responses, only 21 (78%) predicted a rise, down from 88% in September.
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Six experts (22%) are predicting a rate cut, with four citing a final cash rate of 1%.
Cooke said for the first time, Finder analysis shows one in four economists saying there will be no rise until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design. 
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up. 
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“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said. 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Tightening lending practices could negatively effect economy: Finder's RBA survey

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Australian Fintech start-up Athena Home Loans has completed its Series B fund raising.
The Series B raise, led by Square Peg Capital, closed at $25 million.
The Series A fund led by Macquarie Bank and Square Peg Capital earlier this year raised $20 million.
Athena was founded by two ex-bankers, Nathan Walsh and Michael Starkey, and seeks to bypass the banks to connect borrowers to superfund backed loans.
It claims to be Australia’s first cloud native digital mortgage platform.
Venture capitalist and co-founder of Square Peg, Paul Bassat, who also sits on the Athena Board, said Square Peg Capital had invested in Athena in Series A and further solidified by leading the Series B round.
“Having worked with Nathan, Michael and the team over the last year I have enormous admiration forthe speed at which they have navigated complex financial systems to develop a robust and customer- centric mortgage service,” Bassat said.
“Athena is solving a really important problem for home buyers and is certainly one of the most exciting Fintech companies in Australia.
“We are thrilled to back the team again and look forward to supporting them on this extraordinary journey.”
Currently in its pilot stage, Athena is trying to create a compelling option to customers, says Athena CEO Nathan Walsh says. 
“During our pilot, we are already seeing the power of the Athena proposition to save money and change lives,” Walsh says.
“A single mum who will be able to pay off her home loan 19 months earlier and save $130,000 over the life of the loan.
“A family with three young kids who will save $40,000 on their home loan can now take the family on the first holiday in years. It’s powerful stuff.”
“Our key priorities with the investment will be to continue to innovate our platform, invest in talent and scale the business.”
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Home loan start-up Athena secures $45 million in funding

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The performance of Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), asset backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds will remain largely strong in 2019 amid a cooling housing market, according to Moody's research.
Moody's researchers noted, RMBS delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels due to a house price correction. 
Meanwhile, the securitization of small and medium enterprise (SME) and ‘green’ loans will grow in 2019.
The researchers stated, "the quality of mortgages in new RMBS issued by banks and non-bank lenders in 2019 will be healthy overall."
"However, pressure to sustain high growth could pose a risk to non-bank credit quality over the medium-term, if it pushes these lenders into riskier segments of the mortgage market," they said.
They indicated that the performance of mortgages backing outstanding RMBS will remain strong in 2019, given continued GDP growth and low unemployment.
However, mortgage delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels, given high household debt, a cooling housing market and the conversion of a large number of interest-only loans to principal and interest loans.
Moody's beleive that the securitization of SME and green loans will be a growing feature of the Australian ABS sector in 2019.
They said, "the SME ABS sector will develop amid growing lending to small businesses by emerging technology-enabled financial institutions."
"The green securitisation sector will develop gradually, on the back of growing sales of alternative fuel vehicles and improving consistency of green mortgage standards."
The performance of outstanding ABS will remain strong overall in 2019, reflecting healthy macroeconomic conditions. However, auto ABS delinquencies will increase moderately from low levels, given the increasing proportion of consumer auto loans in the underlying pools.
Moody's noted, "the credit quality of covered bond issuers is high and this will support the credit quality of covered bonds in 2019."
"The credit quality of covered bonds has also remained robust in the face of risks in the housing market, reflecting the sound quality of cover pool mortgages," they added.
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Moody's see only a small rise in delinquencies in 2019 

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RBA governor Philip Lowe has suggested banks were becoming too cautious in their lending, in a speech that signalled he viewed lending as having gone from too easy to too tight.
A percentage of borrowers will always end up in financial strife and be unable to meet their obligations, Lowe said in his speech entitled “Trust and Prosperity”. 
“We need banks to be prepared to make loans in the full expectation that some borrowers will not be able to pay them back.”
“Banks need to take risk and manage that risk well. If they become afraid to lend simply because of the consequences of making a loan that goes bad, our economy will suffer,” he said.
Lowe’s comments were at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA).
Lowe’s speech further noted the banking royal commission along with the five years of flat wages had been damaging to trust in Australia. 
“Flat real wages are diminishing our sense of shared prosperity,” he said.
“The lack of real wage growth is one of the reasons why some in our community question whether they are benefiting from our economic success.”
“It is clear that the behaviours highlighted by the royal commission have dented the community’s trust in parts of our financial sector,” Mr Lowe said.
“Strong penalties can play an important role in incentivising good behaviour, and this is an area we should be looking at.” 
Columnist Robert Gottliebsen recently wrote that Australia is going through a credit squeeze without precedent following a period when bank credit standards have been too low.
"The banks have been told to raise those standards, which effectively cuts at least 20% from what they would loan on a property," he wrote in The Australian.
He then added there were also "the unconventional credit clamps... like a cancer growing below the surface, and no one’s talking about them".
Gottliebsen noted that bank managers were under attack at the same time as a credit squeeze - "so a strange new inner fear had developed among banking people at all levels as regulators are set to walk into banks to check what they are doing".
In July Wayne Byres, who heads up the Australian Prudential and Regulatory Authority (APRA), suggested it was important that the concept of caveat emptor (buyer beware) remains in the system. 
“Regulators cannot be everywhere overseeing everything. It is important the community understands that.”
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RBA's Philip Lowe says bank lending has become too cautious

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Consumer sentiment: The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.7 per cent to 117.8 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990.
Reserve Bank Board minutes: The minutes from the November 6 Board meeting were issued. While no rate change is expected any time soon, the Board continues to believe that the next move in rates will be up. Board members see risks of a bigger decline in the jobless rate and thus risks of higher wage growth.
The IMF 2018 Article IV Consultation Mission: The IMF said that “The [Australian] economy’s strong growth momentum is expected to continue in the near term. Notwithstanding recent strong growth, it is not yet the time to withdraw macroeconomic policy support given remaining slack.”
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings.
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<h1>What does it all mean?</h1>
The Reserve Bank Board undertook its annual review of forecasts and concluded that forecast errors had been lower than ‘average’ or normal. Members of the Board also ran different scenarios to assess the impact on interest rates and also ran scenarios to judge the impact on Australia of higher US wage and price growth. Overall, it seems clear from the text that the Reserve Bank Board is comfortable with how things have played out over 2018 and is comfortable with current interest rate settings.
While the Reserve Bank continues to watch the US-China trade dispute, it remains upbeat, believing that growth of Australia’s trading partners will “remain above potential in 2019.” However the Board did note “the latest forecasts had incorporated a small negative effect from recent tariff changes on growth in a number of economies, including the United States and some east-Asian economies.”
There are definitely no signs of angst expressed by Reserve Bank Board members.
Consumer confidence fluctuates from week-to-week. Over the year to November 18, the ANZ-Roy Morgan sentiment gauge has averaged 118.5 points, broadly in-line with current levels of confidence. 
The sharpest falls in weekly sentiment have occurred around political events this year – the Liberal Party leadership crisis (“Libspill”) and Wentworth by-election, respectively in August and October. Of course, households will be navigating three elections in the coming months with Victoria, New South Wales and Federal polls ahead. Business and consumer confidence will likely be choppy in this environment. 
That said, sentiment is holding-up remarkably well, given that home prices have been falling in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth for over a year. And the Aussie sharemarket touched 20-month lows today, down by almost 7 per cent (ASX200 index) so far this year. Importantly, consumer views about the state of their finances and economic conditions are still all above their long-run average levels.
<h1>What do the figures show? </h1>
Consumer Sentiment
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.7 per cent to 117.8 in the past week. The index is well above the average of 114.2 held since 2014, and above the longer-term average of 113.0 held since 1990. 
Three of the five components of the index decreased last week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +15.2 to +6.7; 
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +27.5 to +25.2;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +11.7 to +9.9; 
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +15.1 to +16.6;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +29.5 +30.7.
The measure of inflation expectations fell from 4.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
Reserve Bank November Board minutes:
On the economy: “Members noted that the recent run of economic data suggested that growth in the Australian economy had been higher over the year to the June quarter than earlier forecast, and above estimates of potential growth. Labour market conditions had remained strong and other available indicators pointed to further solid GDP growth in the September quarter. At the same time, inflation in the September quarter had slowed as expected, partly as a result of a large policy-induced decline in childcare prices.”
On the job market: “Conditions in the labour market had also been stronger than expected and forward-looking indicators of labour demand continued to point to ongoing strength in the near term. As a result, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been revised lower and the forecast for wages growth had been revised slightly higher.”
Good economic forecasts: “As part of a regular annual review process, members considered how the domestic economy had evolved over the preceding year relative to the Bank's forecasts of a year earlier. Members noted that the magnitude of forecast errors for key variables, including GDP growth, the unemployment rate and inflation, had been smaller than the historical averages.”
Global risks: “Members noted that the direction of international trade policy continued to be a significant risk to the global outlook.”
Money market conditions: “Information from liaison suggested that there had been little change in domestic money market conditions in recent months. The modest increase in funding costs earlier in the year had been passed on by most lenders to existing borrowers with variable-rate business and housing loans.”
Residential developments: …”there had been reports that bank financing of large development projects had become more difficult, particularly in areas where there had already been substantial development.”
<h1>What is the importance of the economic data?</h1>
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
Consumers remain positive. But the real test will come over the next month for Aussie retailers in the lead up to Christmas. And department stores will again be under pressure this week with the Black Friday and Cyber Monday mega online sales kicking-off. <a href="http://finder.com.au/" target="_blank">Finder.com.au</a> estimates that Aussie consumers will splurge around $320 million on goods.
The Reserve Bank reiterated in its Board meeting minutes today that the outlook for consumption remained uncertain given slow income growth, high mortgage debt levels and cooling housing markets. But wages growth appears to have bottomed, interest rates remain at very supportive record-low levels and utilities bills and petrol prices have fallen from their most recent peaks. And of course 180,200 full time jobs (out of a total of 308,100 job gains) have been created over the past ten months. 
With elections ahead, the IMF has weighed in with its views on its wish-list for Aussie policy reforms. The Fund suggested that “broad tax reform to support productivity and inclusive growth would be desirable…. These reforms should be combined with reforms to raise the GST revenue, lower the company tax rate more broadly, and reduce tax concessions.” On research and development reforms, the IMF said that “The recommendations of the science agenda laid out in Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation are constructive and should be implemented.” And on housing, “Housing supply reforms will be critical to restoring housing affordability.”
CommSec expects no change in the official cash rate until later in 2019. However, just like Reserve Bank Board members, we are closely watching trends in the job market and wages. The Reserve Bank is uncertain about the extent of spare capacity in the job market and therefore this has implications for wage growth.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
 
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Reserve Bank upbeat on Aussie economic growth: CommSec

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirm the confident approach we have seen in the recent Statement on Monetary Policy.
While consumption growth is still identified as a source of uncertainty, the Board expects it to remain around the 3% level over the next few years that we have seen recently. Household disposable income growth is also forecast to increase at that rate.
GDP growth and labour market conditions had been stronger than the Bank had expected over the last twelve months. Accordingly, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been lowered to 4 ¾ per cent from 5 per cent by mid-2020, with an implied downside risk to that forecast. With the improved labour market outlook, there has been a modest upward revision to the outlook for wages growth. This is a particular encouraging development for the Bank as they see wages growth as the key uncertainty for future consumption growth and inflation.
In that regard, the forecast for inflation has been lifted modestly, reflecting the brighter outlook for economic activity, the labour market and wages.
Despite a disappointing capex survey, non-mining business investment was expected to continue to make a significant contribution to output growth supported by above average business conditions and the significant pipeline of non-residential construction work.
Their discussion around the housing market is a little less confident. Residential building approvals are recognised to have fallen in the September quarter and liaison with builders paints a difficult picture. Furthermore, it is noted that housing prices have fallen further in Sydney and Melbourne, although are stable in most other cities. With the Bank’s core forecast that consumption and income growth will be aligned, there is no allowance for any negative wealth effects from these housing developments. The minutes discuss the various policy stances of other central banks noting that “market pricing was consistent with policy rates remaining steady over the following year in Australia and New Zealand, where policy rates had not been lowered to the extent they had in some other economies”.
The Board also discussed the Bank’s forecasting performance over the previous year, noting that forecast errors were smaller than historical averages with GDP growth and business investment surprising to the upside, the terms of trade average being higher than expected, and the marked depreciation in the Australian Dollar. Labour market outcomes were also stronger than expected, although wages growth and inflation had evolved largely as expected. This assessment supports the gradualist policy approach supported by growth holding above potential with associated declining spare capacity leading to a gradual increase in wages growth and inflation.
There is also a rather curious discussion around arguments that had been advanced by various commentators. The arguments are set out but they make no qualitative assessment of their reliability.
We know that the Governor has noted that interest rates could be cut in the event of a global shock and it is interesting that the minutes point out that the monetary policy response to that shock would depend on the associated move in the exchange rate.
The final section of the minutes once again emphasises the importance of wages growth. It is noted that there has been a noticeable pick-up in wages growth in most advanced economies, and Australia requires “a gradual increase in wages growth for inflation to be sustainably within the target range”.
As in the section of the minutes on the domestic economy, the concluding section leaves the discussion around housing markets somewhat up in the air. Credit conditions are recognised as being tighter than they had been for some time, but lending rates remain low and there was strong competition for borrowers of high quality.
In the final paragraph in the minutes, the Board emphasises that “there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”, although the comment “since progress on unemployment and inflation was likely to be gradual” which featured in the October minutes was not used in these minutes. Based on the confident assessment in the body of the minutes, it is possible that the Board is a little more confident with its view that the next move in the cash rate will be an increase.
Conclusion
This is a balanced set of minutes but does indicate more confidence from the Board around its growth, employment, wages and inflation views. The outlook was also boosted by the expectation that consumption and income growth will hold at 3% despite slowing employment growth, and risks around the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne.
By noting that market pricing is not expecting a policy adjustment for the next year, the Bank does appear to be extremely patient with its next policy move. Westpac expects that their growth forecast for 3 ¼ per cent growth in 2019 is too high, mainly because of an expected downturn in residential construction, a slowdown in consumption growth associated with weaker income growth and some wealth effects. That development alone is likely to take the edge off the expectation of rising wages and higher inflation.
We retain our view that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is the chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Balanced set of RBA minutes, but confidence indicated from the Board: Bill Evans

Trade policy development pose significant risk to solid growth outlook: RBA November minutes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The weakness in housing finance commitments now looks engrained
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for September 2018 earlier today and it showed a further weakening of demand for mortgages. Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments was recorded at $29.1 billion which was the lowest monthly value since August 2014. While the decline in finance commitments over recent times has been primarily driven by investors, owner occupier demand is now also clearly easing.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%201.jpg" alt=""> 
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Over the month, the $29.1 billion worth of housing finance commitments was split between $19.4 billion to owner occupiers and $9.8 billion to investors. The $19.4 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers was its lowest monthly value since July 2015 while the $9.8 billion to investors was its lowest monthly value since July 2013. Lending to owner occupiers in September 2018 was -9.4% lower than its monthly peak in February 2018. Housing finance commitments to investors in September 2018 was -33.8% lower than its April 2015 monthly peak.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%202.jpg" alt="">
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In terms of the different types of owner occupier housing finance commitments, each of the four categories recorded a fall over the month while year-on-year, refinance was the only segment that was higher. Importantly, the two largest components of lending to owner occupiers; refinance and purchase of established were -15.9% and -12.9% below their historic peaks in September 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%203.jpg" alt="">
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It is a similar story for investors with demand falling across both new construction and established properties, both of which are lower over the month and year-on-year. In fact the September 2018 value of lending to investors for new construction was -46.9% below its peak while lending for established properties was -35.6% lower.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/9/housing%20finance%204.jpg" alt=""> 
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As investor demand has faded from the housing market, demand from owner occupier first home buyers had been trending higher. This lift was largely on the back of introductions of stamp duty free or stamp duty reduced purchases for first home buyers under certain price points in NSW and Vic which became available in July 2017. More recently the data is pointing to an easing of demand from first home buyers. In September 2018 there were 8,693 owner occupier first home buyer commitments which was both lower than the previous year (9,618) and the previous month (9,534). In fact the 8,693 commitments was the lowest monthly number since January 2017 (note the data isn’t seasonally adjusted so January is always much lower than other months) other than that you’d have to go back toJune 2017 to see commitments so low (the month prior to stamp duty concession going live in NSW and Vic).
Given the ongoing declines in dwelling values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, and the now apparent declines in owner occupier and investor housing finance commitments, it is hard to see a reversal in dwelling value declines or a lift in sales activity any time soon.
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As activity reduces, housing inventory is building up, providing more choice for buyers and little in the way of urgency to make a purchase decision.
The upcoming pause for Christmas and New Year may see some adjustment in the New Year but even that looks unlikely. For the coming months it is expected mortgage demand will continue to fall as will dwelling values.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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