<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a flurry of excitement back in January when previously reported 2017 figures implied that Australia's household debt pile had temporarily nudged against twice disposable income. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the headline number was subsequently revised down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ratios from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) show household debt now sitting at at 1.9x disposable income.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Or 190.13 per cent as at March 2018, to use a bit of false precision, up from 183.51 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jg6DW-0Q4mU/WzqepI3WnUI/AAAAAAAAq2g/IgMCJx3uRN4KTafsk-RgZdhKL9lqNlKiACLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a lot of debate about what this debt ratio should or shouldn't be.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will probably remain higher than was previously normal given the structure of Australia's population and immigration profile, with policy generally taking a keener regard of interest payments and serviceability. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this is a revised series high, the rate of increase has slowed somewhat (while the gross figure also doesn't account for the record mortgage buffers and use of offset accounts racked up through this cycle).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, given the precipitous drop in both the stock and flow of interest-only mortgages the ratio is likely to peak relatively soon as income growth also moves beyond the nadir. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anecdotally lenders are making it very difficult for brokers and borrowers to see loans written at the present time, which I believe will see the seasonally adjusted monthly value of investment loans pushed down to around $10 billion by the middle of the year, from nearly $15 billion at the 2015 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Money growth is now at its lowest level in 26 years, and investor credit growth is at a record low of just 2 per cent, even before accounting for headcount growth and inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Household debt higher over 12 months to March

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another substantial surge in jobs was reported for June, with total employment up by a seasonally adjusted 50,900 in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This led to the usual quibbles about whether the figures are 'right' or not. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This seldom happens when the number are below expectations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But when there's a beat...every time!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are even occasional calls to ditch the seasonally adjusted figures entirely in favour of the smoother trend data, but I'm not sure I buy that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What are the trend figures, after all, but a representation of the same numbers from the survey? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The further you disaggregate the figures the more prone they are to throwing out unusual results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, Macquarie highlighted an oddity in that the bulk of jobs growth over the past four months was accounted for by youth employment, especially from the female cohort.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The detailed labour force figures at the regional level are similarly prone to volatility, which is why the ABS reports annual average figures in addition to the original survey results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For all of the grouching, the labour force has continued to tighten gradually over the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the monthly doubters, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has now fallen by more than one percent from 6.38 per cent in October 2014 to 5.37 per cent in June 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you prefer to use the trend rate, then that's plotted below for you too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate is now at the lowest level since 2012. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2JWVaIcKwE8/W1MPTWopYJI/AAAAAAAArJk/IQFNOPE6G2YyoZHHpHb87bnv0fECz6rbQCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1363"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Another piece of pessimistic statistical trickery is to highlight the underutilisation rate while neglecting to report the more telling volume measures of underutilisation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, yes lots of people want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four calendar years too. </div>
<p> </p>
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<p><br><span>This is good news, and it should be embraced as such!</span><br><br><span>Welcome to the recovery.</span></p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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The labour market is improving: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Average loan sizes took a knock back in September 2018, both for investors and owner-occupiers, although the average loan size remained higher than a year earlier (substantially so for first-time buyers), so perhaps this in itself isn't all that surprising under tighter lending conditions.</p>
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<p><span>It doesn't matter if you're borrowing at a rate of 4 per cent or even lower today, you'll still be assessed at 7¼ per cent, so there's oodles of headroom, but mortgage processing seems to have become a painstaking process and transaction volumes have crashed.</span></p>
<p><strong>Frozen fever</strong></p>
<p>The weak ABS housing finance figures - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/housing-finance-smashed" target="_blank">see here</a> - don't pick up the full extent of this yet, especially since there are still thousands of apartments settling from off-the-plan purchases, but the apartments pipeline has shrunk quite dramatically of late so the line in the chart below will continue to fall through 2019.</p>
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<p>It's not all doom and gloom for realtors, or property owners, especially around some of the regional markets. </p>
<p>And the urban services economy is buzzing with people and employment, so some properties with a scarcity value are still faring well with mortgage rates so much lower than they used to be. </p>
<p>There was an auction just across the street from our place <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-pyrmont-129585290" target="_blank">in Sydney yesterday</a> with Cooley's auctioneers reporting a whopping 41 bids and a thumping price tag of $2.675 million, implying that borrowers with equity and of high credit quality are being treated with reverence by increasingly twitchy lenders.</p>
<p>I don't go to Melbourne much unless I have to (kidding lol...I'm down there next week), but the <a href="http://www.catebakos.com.au/sundayblog/the-correlation-between-property-scarcity-and-auction-result/" target="_blank">experts in the know down there</a> will doubtless report a similar story about demand and scarcity value. </p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, many parts of the housing market are being smoked, volumes have been crunched, and they'll be plenty of real estate agents seeking alternative forms of employment in 2019, if they aren't already. </p>
<p>Non-bank lenders have alleviated some of the pressure, though volumes were down here too in September. </p>
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<p>The Treasurer has evidently become a tad agitated, requesting that banks keep their lending channels open to prevent money growth from seizing up more than it already has. </p>
<p>Financial markets haven't been unduly fazed, on the whole, presumably adopting a benign stance in the belief that an engineered slowdown in lending could be relaxed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile bank stock valuations have largely followed international leads through reporting season, following an initial relief rally after the draft Royal Commission report was released. </p>
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<p>Finally, spare a thought for those that bought units off-the-plan in some of the big inner-city tower block developments, with settlement valuations often coming in way short of purchase prices as valuers look nervously over their shoulders. </p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Loan sizes trimmed in September: Pete Wargent

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<div><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER</strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor credit plumbs lows</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The crackdown on investor credit growth has been ruthlessly effective since 2015, the 12-month growth rate falling from 10.8 per cent to the lowest level on record in August 2018, according to the latest Reserve Bank financial aggregates.</div>
<p> </p>
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<p> </p>
<div>With the Royal Commission Interim Report finally and conveniently landing just before the long weekend, the major banks will be relieved to see that there'll be no heavy-handed regulation coming their way, and Treasury quite clearly keen to avoid any further tightening of household credit. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the 10 per cent cap on investor credit growth is now removed there's plenty of headroom for investment lending to pick up from here. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>There were some bogus claims last week that Westpac is 'calling in' risky investor loans via a mythical letter.<br><br>Perhaps the letter in question was dated April 1, but a thousand posts on the gossip forums and multiple global headlines later, it transpired that one tiny fragment of evidence was missing - a copy of the fabled letter itself - before unsurprisingly Westpac finally got around to stating that no such action had been taken. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Chasing business again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If anything, the major banks will now be looking to attract new business from housing market investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Don't take my word for it, by the way.<br><br>Instead, take Westpac itself as an example since we're on the subject, who won't waste any time in hitting up the investor market now the Interim RC Report has been issued by immediately bringing back its refinance rebate, effective today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, as soon as everyone's had a chance to recover from the Grand Final double-header weekend, brokers will kick off this week by swamping customer inboxes with a refinance rebate blitz.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac will re-introduce a rebate offer of $1,250 for every standalone property loan refinanced. So, for example, a client that refinances 10 properties to Westpac can qualify for $12,500 in rebates, and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The loans must be <em>de minimis</em> $250,000 to qualify for the deal with the rebates to be deposited into the loan account within a couple of months from settlement, while brokers can seek additional pricing off the packaged rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, eligible new investment property or owner-occupier buyers may receive 200,000 to 500,000 Velocity reward points per loan, for loans above $250,000 and $1,000,000 respectively. For some context a $60 tank of fuel at BP costs about 10,000 points, so this is also a non-trivial incentive.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Doesn't sound much like they're chasing investors away to me, but alas I'll never jag a global headline with such a middling observation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Banks set to give chase for investors: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It looks as though tighter deposit requirements have run their course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although December 2018 was a horrible quarter for mortgage lending in the lead-up to the end of the Royal Commission, the squeeze on loan-to-value ratios looks to be just about done. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/22/interest%20only%201.jpg" alt=""> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>There are relatively few interest-only (IO) mortgages being written now, and this squeeze also looks to be about done. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a smaller share of a smaller pie, and this is reducing household debt ratios as we speak (contrary to the incorrect claims you might read elsewhere). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/22/interest%20only%202.jpg" alt=""> </div>
<div>
<div>The ADI stock of outstanding IO loans is now less than ¼ of mortgages by value, the lowest on record across the data series. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This may sound a lot, but most IO loans revert to principal repayment relatively quickly, and anyway IO mortgages can make a lot of sense for borrowers with offset accounts. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many borrowers have opted to revert to principal repayment early for the cheaper mortgage rates on offer. </div>
<div>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/22/interest%20only%203.jpg" alt=""> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>There was previously some debate surrounding what constituted a 'new' IO loan, but the interest-only 'cliff' is no longer a thing, since any mechanically forced reset no longer applies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's in nobody's interests to see stressed borrowers go into arrears, so the reset should now be managed comfortably enough.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong>Left the building</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's interesting to note that partly thanks to switching across to cheaper rates, interest repayments have now declined to sit well below 10 per cent of household disposable income, down from 16 per cent a decade earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is a very significant decline, and this hugely improved level of mortgage serviceability partly accounts for why mortgage arrears remain so low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Betwixt the Council of Financial Regulators and the Reserve Bank today the respective authorities confirmed today that there would be no further tightening of lending standards required, instead perhaps implying that banks rather need to write some business.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>From the RBA:</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>"From a financial stability perspective, prudent lending standards are a good thing. They ensure that households and banks are resilient to changes in circumstances. </em></div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div>
<em>But there needs to be a balance. </em><em>The regulators are not proposing any further tightening in lending standards. </em>
</div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em>And the appropriate amount of credit risk is not zero – banks need to continue to lend and that will inevitably involve some credit losses."</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Welcome news, while fixed mortgage rates are being cut widely as funding costs have declined. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The regulators have left the building (for the time being!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div id="post-body-36613851729109642" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em> </div>
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Interest-only cliff: no longer a thing - Pete Wargent

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<div>The Department of Home Affairs released its latest pivot tables on temporary visas holders in Australia (with thanks to Henry Sherrell for highlighting). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the December quarter numbers tend to swing sharply higher due to fireworks on the harbour and all that jazz - to well above 2.2 million last year - the September figures make for interesting reading. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The stock data shows that temporary visa holders in Australia rose to 2.07 million by September 2017, well up from 1.96 million a year earlier and some 23 per cent higher than as at September 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That represents an extra 382,000 temporary visa holders in Australia from 5 years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubting the source of the boom, being the 50 per cent boost in student visas over the past half decade to well over ½ million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1371"></div>
<div>Also of interest to note: the number of bridging visas is now rising fast, implying a surge in the demand for permanent residency (PR) visa places from temporary visa holders.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These trends help to explain why the population of the largest capital cities has effectively been growing much more quickly than implied by the issuance of PR visas alone. </div>
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Student visa boom still underway: Pete Wargent

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<div>On the face of it a better result for retail trade in February 2018, with a +0.6 per cent increase in turnover, and the January result revised up slightly to +0.2 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Under the hood, though, this was another soft result, with department stores clearly under intense pressure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total retail turnover in February was $26.45 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, so only a marginal +0.2 per cent higher than we saw back in November when the i-Phone X was unleashed and Black Friday spiked the results.<br><br>And the February figures for Sydney and Melbourne would have been enhanced by Chinese Lunar New Year falling later this year than last.<br><br>You can click on the graphics to enlarge them. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>Looking through the monthly noise, retail turnover in trend terms was a modest +2.7 per cent higher over the year. </div>
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<p>The monthly rebound in turnover was driven by New South Wales (+1.1 per cent) and Victoria (+1.1 per cent), offset by a decline in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent).  </p>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Amazon arrives</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures are of particular interest since the survey should include Amazon Australia sales.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's one thing we do know it's that there has been widespread industry discounting - indeed, you can take a walk around any shopping mall and see this for yourself.<br><br>We'll see this better in the quarterly results, which will shed more light on price inflation (deflation) versus volumes as a driver of retail turnover. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Price discounting in part helped to drive a +1.5 per cent rebound in department store turnover in the month, but this came off the back of a series of monthly declines, with turnover remaining well below the levels seen in October last year. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>The rolling annual trend numbers over the the longer term tell the story better - department stores have never faced such sustained pressure since the statistician began measuring numbers. </div>
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<p>Tellingly, online retail accounted for 5.1 per cent of total turnover in the month, up from 3.6 per cent only a year earlier, an alarming rate of increase from the perspective of traditional retailers. </p>
<div>Myer has been one high-profile casualty with its share price trading at around 36 cents (down from a float price of $4.10) but there are plenty of others...and more in the offing. </div>
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Department stores under intense pressure: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
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<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Some blessed relief for housing investors as the number of interest-only loans was finally off the lows in the June 2019 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following changes to serviceability rules further increases should hopefully be observed in the second half of 2019. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>The stock of interest-only loans continued to decline sharply to 21.8 per cent of total mortgages, however - comfortably the lowest share on record - having been at 39 per cent of the stock of outstanding mortgages by value as recently as early 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This shows how dramatically effective the interest rate differential was in lending and borrowing behaviours, alongside caps and certain other restrictions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite all the hype, there have been comparatively few signs of forced selling to date, with most borrowers managing the transition comfortably. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, new stock listings have remained exceptionally low. </div>
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<div>There has been an impact on consumption, though, and NAB now forecasts <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">three</span></strong> further interest rate cuts over the next nine months, as indeed does ANZ.<br><br>In fact, NAB also sees a chance of unconventional measures on top of these cuts. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the remaining interest-only loans Westpac retains the largest stock.</div>
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<div>Finally, the 5-year squeeze on higher-LVR lending has finally eased a little, with the majors steadily writing more loans at 80-90 per cent LVRs, which is also a relief to see.</div>
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<p>Non-banks wrote a fair chunk of the loans at above 90 per cent LVRs, but there have been fewer exceptions reported as a share of total lending.</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Brink of crisis</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, there are some tentative signs that banks are somewhat more willing and able to write mortgages, half a decade after the prudential tightening began.<br><br>Investment lending is now only about half of what it was at the peak, and some loosening is welcomed to allow first homebuyers an opportunity to buy, with prices also lower over the past two years.<br><br>Moreover, the banking Royal Commission brought Australia to the brink of a recession and a related banking crisis.<br><br>At the last count monthly building approvals have crashed to 12,944 (with unit approvals down 44 per cent year-on-year), which is a diabolical leading indicator for activity in the economy, while credit growth is also dreadfully weak.<br><br>Despite these atrocious numbers, there's often a palpable complacency evident in the housing market commentary.<br><br>A banking crisis can still be averted, but only if banks can get some credit flowing again...and soon. </div>
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Has the interest-only cliff almost been negotiated? Pete Wargent

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<p>Last week, I noticed Craig James, chief economist of Commsec, pointing out to David "Kochie" Koch that although wages growing have been growing slower than prices, household incomes are actually growing at the fastest pace in two years, increasing by 4.7% in the last 12 months.</p>
<p>While wages growth has indeed slowed (<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/wages-grow-at-26" target="_blank">as I analysed here,</a> among other places), apparently household disposable incomes have been rising more quickly. Interesting statistic I thought, so I asked "CJ" for the source.</p>
<p align="center"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7SzKL4Y4BIU/VCF5vBSJ3TI/AAAAAAAAP70/Yhw_QqERMLs/s1600/HICJ.jpg"> </p>
<p>Straight from the National Accounts, advised CJ. So I thought I'd take a little look to confirm or deny.</p>
<p><strong>Household gross incomes rising</strong></p>
<p>First, I ran the seasonally adjusted household income data from the National Accounts.</p>
<p>As you can see from the green line circled below, after a rampant boom in employee compensation spurred on by Australia's mining boom, income growth from paid employment has slowed since December 2012.</p>
<p>Although the trend does remain up on a national basis, in real terms wages are at best flat and at worst declining moderately.</p>
<p>Of course there are many forms of income including dividends, rent, social assistance, other transfers, and more besides, and overall household incomes have increased at the significantly faster pace of 4.4% seasonally adjusted over the last year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - in essence, everything that is not wages has increased in real terms.</p>
<p> </p>
<p align="center"> <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8H1Wz0wmWcQ/VCF5psR7OkI/AAAAAAAAP7Q/opfMA4K1EVA/s1600/HI1.jpg"></p>
<p>Still, even this income growth cannot fully account for a 4.7% rise in household disposable incomes.</p>
<p><strong>Payables down?</strong></p>
<p>The big mover in terms of payables in recent decades has of course been interest paid on dwellings, which skyrocketed until September 2008, then collapsed as interest rates were slashed and house prices eased. Then it repeated the trick once again from September 2011 as the latest easing cycle took hold.</p>
<p>With interest rates significantly closer to the zero bound than historically has been the case and household debt levels today much higher than they were before the deregulation of the banking system, relatively small adjustments to mortgage rates can result in wild swings in total interest payments on dwellings. And how!</p>
<p align="center"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xFfk72ZbyRo/VCF5p2fT1FI/AAAAAAAAP7U/ucfhOLYzSDo/s1600/HI2.jpg"> </p>
<p>With most mortgage debt being charged on variable rate products, this explains why Australia's housing market is so sensitive to shifts in interest rates, and why only a few rate hikes would quickly quell speculative sentiment and swiftly end the property price uptrend for this cycle.</p>
<p>Why? Because the people lumbered with the highest mortgage debt as a percentage of their household income are those at the margin i.e. those buying much of the property which transacts.</p>
<p>It is difficult to draw hard conclusions from macro level data, but the two charts above show that for existing homeowners on variable rate mortgages, disposable income has surely roared higher in the period since the dramatic peaks in interest repayment levels of September 2008 and September 2011 respectively.</p>
<p>Anyone with existing mortgage debt who has remained in employment will appreciate just how comparatively easy life is with a standard variable rate of 5.2% rather than the 9.6%, we saw as recently as July and August 2008.</p>
<p align="center"><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/images/sp-so-230413-graph11.gif"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><em>This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue. </em></p>
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<p><strong>Household income accounts</strong></p>
<p>On a national basis total gross income dwarfs property payables largely because most Australians are not mortgaged to the eyeballs as is widely believed. </p>
<p>Depending on your state, between a quarter and a third of homes <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/dynamics" target="_blank">are owned debt free</a> while mortgage holders over recent years have been moving well ahead on their repayments. </p>
<p>Meanwhile income taxes payable have moved higher in concert with rising taxable incomes. </p>
<p>The trend in gross disposable income is shown by the red line below.</p>
<p align="center"> <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ew6soAsW11s/VCF5umNs6jI/AAAAAAAAP7w/d8MQCRJdCdQ/s1600/HI4.jpg"></p>
<p>So, in this sense, Commsec's observation is correct - gross disposable incomes are indeed 4.7% higher than a year ago.</p>
<p>However it is a fair bet that those who are not homeowners and are 100 percent reliant on a salary for their income do not feel much better off, if they even do at all.</p>
<p>Homeowners and in some instances those with diversified income streams are clearly benefiting very significantly from record low borrowing rates.</p>
<p>These things naturally tend to work in cycles, though - when interest rates were much higher and rising and dwelling prices easing, the boot was on the other foot entirely.</p>
<p> </p>
<p align="center"> <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CV4uoAihbTI/VCF5tvRx9fI/AAAAAAAAP7k/dN77fz2dzgw/s1600/HI5.jpg"></p>
<p>Gross disposable income nationally has been launched massively higher by more than 80% in the past decade, unadjusted for population growth.</p>
<p>However, the trend disposable income growth per capita seems likely to slow, and if interest rates are hiked several times gross disposable income in aggregate could plateau unless wages growth rebounds.</p>
<p> <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fXYwdyho_XE/VCF5vQP6fjI/AAAAAAAAP74/O2tfGis_r1o/s1600/HI6.jpg"></p>
<p> </p>
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Pete Wargent

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