<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div><span>A solid headline result for employment growth in April 2018, beating expectations of 20,000, with total seasonally adjusted employment up by 22,600 to beyond 12<span>½</span> million for the first time, driven by a substantial 32,700 increase in full time jobs.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>There were, however, adverse revisions to take into account for the preceding month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cSFR5OFaXS8/Wv0rFcRhMQI/AAAAAAAAqFs/ni7qvpHrW1IG6pa-CJ-CqqHyNmyokZuYQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cSFR5OFaXS8/Wv0rFcRhMQI/AAAAAAAAqFs/ni7qvpHrW1IG6pa-CJ-CqqHyNmyokZuYQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1372"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Alas, the Coalition's favoured '1000 jobs per month' slogan is going to have to be canned forthwith, with annual employment growth down from a record high of 431,200 in January 2018 to 332,200 (or 2.73 per cent) by April. </div>
<p>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_JFbqwgARDc/Wv0rFQ_Ib9I/AAAAAAAAqFw/Yy8kZrFzvI8ZiFYm7PFFKrAPo0ZGSzJAACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_JFbqwgARDc/Wv0rFQ_Ib9I/AAAAAAAAqFw/Yy8kZrFzvI8ZiFYm7PFFKrAPo0ZGSzJAACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state (NSW superboom)</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Employment blazed another 27,600 higher in New South Wales to be up by 46,800 over the quarter, and a thunderous 156,000 year-on-year, casting further doubt on the endless gloomy house price predictions, with first homebuyers also now wading in. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The New South Wales economy has added well over 300,000 extra jobs over the past three years, something achieved for the first time ever on a rolling 3-year basis in the past few months across more than 40 years of available figures. </div>
<p>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hU-FibmfM9o/Wv0rFEzr5GI/AAAAAAAAqFo/YE68F8xEGcMtqe9nrQ6JYlK-D9crzfLkACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hU-FibmfM9o/Wv0rFEzr5GI/AAAAAAAAqFo/YE68F8xEGcMtqe9nrQ6JYlK-D9crzfLkACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1342"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>One of the extraordinary aspects of this cycle has been the sheer concentration of employment growth.<br><br>Of the suburbs where participation rates have been rising almost all of them are in the inner suburban heart the big capital cities, while more than half of jobs have been created within a tiny 2-kilometre radius of the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs.<br><br>Small wonder the competition for prime location land continues to intensify.<br><br>Queensland's jobs boom seems to have tapered back, with annual employment growth in trend terms now at 3.5 per cent, remaining comfortably in second place only to New South Wales at a supercharged 3.8 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly the trend participation rate hit a record high 65.7 per cent in April driven by female and older workers entering the labour force, with the unemployment rate ticking up a notch to 5.6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_ANT7qWj-sE/Wv0rGiDqpLI/AAAAAAAAqGM/1wL4OeEc2_Qfu93prKaJ5OTpNvAt7K4WACEwYBhgL/s640/A5.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_ANT7qWj-sE/Wv0rGiDqpLI/AAAAAAAAqGM/1wL4OeEc2_Qfu93prKaJ5OTpNvAt7K4WACEwYBhgL/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<p>Despite searing annual population growth of 123,100 and 147,400 in the two most populous states respectively, New South Wales has a trend unemployment rate of just 4.9 per cent while Victoria has seen its trend unemployment rate crunched lower to 5.3 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year earlier. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--TIYS4_qVXQ/Wv0rGSfiMwI/AAAAAAAAqF0/k_KZjy70WNEuwkE2jt4Cr5UIlwBpR9j8gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--TIYS4_qVXQ/Wv0rGSfiMwI/AAAAAAAAqF0/k_KZjy70WNEuwkE2jt4Cr5UIlwBpR9j8gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1376"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Finally, and to finish on a positive note, the trend annual growth in monthly hours worked increased to 3.3 per cent, the highest level since all the way back in August 2010. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IGsidl1U7dg/Wv0rHIOpcFI/AAAAAAAAqF8/uoGPI43dbcM5jHX6TIimeuaWZuE3aXDGwCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IGsidl1U7dg/Wv0rHIOpcFI/AAAAAAAAqF8/uoGPI43dbcM5jHX6TIimeuaWZuE3aXDGwCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1348"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, these figures would be construed as disappointing if you don't live in New South Wales, where the stamp duty/infrastructure boom is paying some serious dividends. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Employment growth in recent times has been quite heavily focused in healthcare and construction, which might in part account for why wages growth has generally been tepid across most industries.<br><br>Underutilisation remains elevated, despite a modest improvement. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate policymakers will most likely see enough positives here to stay on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

New South Wales, where the stamp duty/infrastructure boom is paying serious dividends: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market mispricing?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you'll kindly indulge a Tuesday night blog post after an evening talking, um, Australian monetary policy at the Clock Hotel (n.b. soft drinks only!), then herewith it follows. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One week ago the October 2019 RBA Minutes were released, and they stated that, if needed, policy would be eased further <em><strong>to achieve full employment and the inflation target. </strong></em>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/RBA4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DRBZQLy3u2w/Xa7Rmuaj5lI/AAAAAAAAyb0/9eymjiILxfw9dfOchYSpgYfk1z-bP_JdgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RBA4.jpg" width="640" height="202" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="831"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Then on October 18 the RBA Governor delivered a designedly upbeat speech to the IMF in Washington, which justifiably highlighted Australia's record unbroken stretch of economic growth among other Antipodean successes (including the floating currency, which often - though not always - moves in harmony with commodity prices). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I didn't listen to the audio live, but while we don't need to link to all of the media pieces, across the board we saw a rash of articles suggesting that the RBA is done with cutting and has hosed down the prospect of further cuts.<br><br>A bit odd, it seemed.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s1600/rba.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yOb6CoNIbAM/Xa7QjD8vWaI/AAAAAAAAybg/bQhRxx6datcUorhTVySG840RkCNgvS_ZACEwYBhgL/s640/rba.jpg" width="640" height="594" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="738"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>I'll come back to this point, but I broke one of my own golden rules here: at the risk of sounding like an episode of <em>Yes, Prime Minister,</em> always listen to what was actually said, not what was said about what was being said!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Inflation smoked</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest employment figures were <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">modestly positive</a>, but the leading indicators are weakening and there was no indication that labour force slack will be reduced significantly, or that full employment will be on the horizon any time soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unemployment was still uppish at 5.2 per cent, and the underemployment rate remained <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-gentlest-of-turning-points" target="_blank">way high at 8.3 per cent</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking towards next Wednesday's inflation figures for the September quarter, it's hard to see where any inflationary pressures at all are going to come from, except for - yet again - smokes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There may well be some food price inflation due to the drought (which itself drags further on economic growth), but rental price growth will be at or close to record lows, and there may be some other offsetting<span> factors. </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Crunching through the numbers, with a hat tip to the ever-brilliant Justin Smirk at Westpac, spits out trimmed mean inflation of, say, 0.3 per cent, and the weighted median may well be even lower still.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>So that gets you to annual core inflation of about 1½ per cent for trimmed mean, and just 1.2 per cent for the weighted median, which is so far below the mandated target you could drive a truck through the gap (or an attractively priced new SUV the way new car sales have been tracking!). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>If all of this proves to be the case - and, by the way, the mid-point of the inflation target is 2½ per cent - why wouldn't the RBA be cutting with bells on?</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Financial markets have effectively priced out a November cut - and almost any further cuts at all - as far as I can tell because some people said that's what the Governor said...but is that what was said?</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">What's the French word for nuance?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To recap briefly, we have a 'no' to full employment, and a resounding 'no' for being close to achieving the inflation target, which market expectations see as a distant dream. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now let's go back to the IMF speech, and more specifically the very brief Q&amp;A segment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then to a question from the floor!<br><br>Question: has the RBA got 'a lot of work to do' in terms of delivering monetary easing (the cash rate is at 0.75 per cent), and should we assume negative rates or other unorthodox policies?</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rba2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-clR0lulvZts/Xa7QjR6iU9I/AAAAAAAAybk/Gr6cNLxerWop15HuL3ZX5MUE0_VVFXOOQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rba2.jpg" width="640" height="314" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1111"></a></div>
<div>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><br></em></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: RBA</em></span>
</div>
<div>To my mind, there's only one way that a central bank Governor could've answered that question given the circumstances, and here it is:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-5mD8YZPyQ/Xa7QjEC41XI/AAAAAAAAybc/v_-AtHtN2jUVIO0rjd4o_QVHjJNPYIG5QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rba3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f-5mD8YZPyQ/Xa7QjEC41XI/AAAAAAAAybc/v_-AtHtN2jUVIO0rjd4o_QVHjJNPYIG5QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rba3.jpg" width="640" height="164" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="1112"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: RBA</span></em></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">November live</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Now I could be off beam here - it's happened on this blog at least once before! - but this answer, and perhaps some of the remainder of the transcript might have been misinterpreted...and the market pricing may in turn have been led astray. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>No central banker could have reasonably responded 'we have lots more to do' on easing, and the question on negative interest rates was always going to be batted to the fence, which it quite rightly was. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The consensus view is that there will be no further easing this year, but if inflation is as low as it looks to be - essentially a sin tax on tobacco and a bit of drought-related food price inflation - then the November meeting could be a live one.<br><br>I've leaned heavily here on the analysis of Sophia Rodrigues of Central Bank Intel (if you're an institution you should subscribe to her forthcoming content), and another prominent markets analyst in Sydney (well, it's the Clock Hotel, you can work it out). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
</body></html>

Why the November RBA meeting may be live: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-4827528758440754749" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Australia's recent figures on COVID-19 have been nothing short of remarkable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest you think that's an exaggeration, think back to what the medical experts were forecasting only one month ago, which was a tragically similar path to the worst hit countries. </div>
<br><div>Yesterday, Australia ramped up the daily total in testing to a much larger 14,980, of which 42 tested positive, or 0.3 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More than 411,000 tests have now been carried out nationwide. </div>
<div>
<br>Encouragingly the rate testing positive has continued to fall very consistently from 2.8 per cent on March 30 to just 0.3 per cent yesterday. </div>
<div>
<br>Greg Hunt noted this morning that total new confirmed cases have increased by under 1 per cent for each of the past seven days, resulting in a 'genuine and sustained flattening of the curve'.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XDEE0SHWHfM/XpuhfCrmNsI/AAAAAAAA1TY/Ilk9aBeQHF08UX8-dm6DThw4sleJO5ItwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CV2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XDEE0SHWHfM/XpuhfCrmNsI/AAAAAAAA1TY/Ilk9aBeQHF08UX8-dm6DThw4sleJO5ItwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1406"></a></div>
<br><div>There were 10 new confirmed cases yesterday in New South Wales relating to two known clusters (Anglicare at Caddens in Western Sydney, and the Ruby Princess cruise ship). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That result was from a very substantial 5,152 tests.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today Victoria reported just 9 new cases from 3,000 tests, and Queensland had only five new confirmed cases.<br><br>North-west Tasmania has seen a cluster of cases related to hospitals, while elsewhere in the country numbers have fallen to zero, or very close to zero in recent days. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nqTokFlFV44/XpuhfAF0frI/AAAAAAAA1Tc/uG-qTZK6MgQMRfh6X_l8_4L7CqvcknDnQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CV1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nqTokFlFV44/XpuhfAF0frI/AAAAAAAA1Tc/uG-qTZK6MgQMRfh6X_l8_4L7CqvcknDnQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1407"></a></div>
<br><div>Recoveries have comfortably exceeded new cases over the past week, and the number in ICU has almost halved, down by another 6 today to just 49 (versus the planned expanded capacity of 7,000), with 31 presently on ventilators. </div>
<div>
<br>Greg Hunt reported today that Australia has received some 60 million masks, which is 6 million than anticipated, and two weeks early than expected.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is 'the envy of the world' according to the government reports; let's hope it stays that way.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Miraculous improvement in COVID-19 cases: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2344560504014387325" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Just to add to all the other woeful data released today, the preliminary index of commodity prices was down by -3.5 per cent in November, following on from a substantially (downwardly) revised -6.6 per cent decline in October. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZpHxPyxhBS8/XeUWD1ePD_I/AAAAAAAAzJ8/cUV_89zPAP8WrA0ZWMBaCF4kiouWAPzKQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Commodity.gif"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZpHxPyxhBS8/XeUWD1ePD_I/AAAAAAAAzJ8/cUV_89zPAP8WrA0ZWMBaCF4kiouWAPzKQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Commodity.gif" width="640" height="498" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="597"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Productivity figures released today were the worst in at least 25 years, and you can follow much of the other underwhelming news <a href="https://jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and the Board will need to work its way through a barrage of dire figures, including the ongoing nosedive in dwelling construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mxFbqv6uopM/XeUV7w27ZDI/AAAAAAAAzJ4/-6H8KzN91H8V7WueVcKddgFbefJyG2nQACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/RW.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mxFbqv6uopM/XeUV7w27ZDI/AAAAAAAAzJ4/-6H8KzN91H8V7WueVcKddgFbefJyG2nQACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RW.jpg" width="572" height="640" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="828"></a></div>
<br><div>Futures markets are unsurprisingly pricing further easing, with the economy, inflation, and wages growth all so mired in the doldrums.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The question the Board will need to consider is: what exactly would waiting until February achieve?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Is a recession brewing? Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This cemented a robust rebound in lending flows since the election, mainly driven by owner-occupiers (+23 per cent).</p>
<p>Investment loans are also up +15 per cent since the election, but from a very depleted base.</p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Fym44DmVdXw/XkNNpsb6bzI/AAAAAAAA0PQ/OxoB6fWkGzwMm4aVAHU49wn2nM-atIaQwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1455"></p>
<p>Since the election the rebound in home loans has been driven by New South Wales (+27 per cent), Queensland (+22 per cent), and Victoria (+21 per cent). </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2CaXOxgQUm0/XkNNpvYcCyI/AAAAAAAA0PM/szFKP_dHHd4E-GD8FP9ww0tIXT4BtY84gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1389"></p>
<p>First homebuyer numbers hit decade highs, even ahead of the rapid take-up of the deposit scheme in January. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UCffVRVvlU4/XkNNp3PlozI/AAAAAAAA0PU/5nQ3kxdfUFgaY20wQ5Ey3vQNa4WYDqkCQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FHB.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1405"></p>
<p>There was also a big jump in the average loan size to $500,000, but I'm less sure of the integrity of this data trend.</p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Housing lending ended 2019 on a high: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The coronavirus was confirmed as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The WHO noted that known cases have increased 13-fold in the past two weeks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All shops in Italy except for foodstores and pharmacies have been shuttered, as the mortality rate in the country has soared to an alarmingly high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My Italian holiday is looking less likely by the week, which is annoying as I've been learning the language this year (what's the Italian for 'FFS' again?).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Angela Merkel announced that up to 58 million Germans, or 70 per cent on the population, could contract the illness.<br><br><strong>Policy response</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are serious people and serious organisations, not renowned for making wild statements, so it seems inevitable that containment measures will be taken around the world, leading to a slowdown in global growth and earnings for at least the next 3-6 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian government has announced a stimulus package worth A$17 billion, which is at least a start, albeit it still doesn't sound like nearly enough.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why politicians are still making comments about a 'measured Budget response' I'll never know (actually I do know, and it's dumb). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wouldn't be at all surprising if we see a second round of stimulus ahead in the coming months, on top of a finally interest rate cut, and then potentially QE in the form of yield curve control.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's little point in going over old ground, but even at this stage the Reserve Bank sounds very reluctant to take action, at a time when the feeling around the financial markets traps is that what's really needed is a 'whatever it takes' mentality and message.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mind you, we haven't had that for the past few years, so it's unlikely to start now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Grizzly bear</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not normally in the business of writing daily markets commentary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's largely a fool's errand, arguably not all that useful, and potentially quite annoying.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But since everyone else is doing it....US stocks whipsawed again and dropped 5 per cent last night to enter a bear market.<br><br>It's been the fastest bear market of all time, with the 20 per cent drop taking just 19 days from the peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even after a 20 per cent correction, stocks are priced at remarkably expensive levels given that the US economy is teetering on a bust, with so many debt bombs lurking quietly beneath. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gd2Vl5ChIfE/Xmlb_NhDpaI/AAAAAAAA0oE/-L5IQJFBlB4V0nVPubpBVlQU6S08ObcJgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="478" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1075"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Source: Shiller</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt investors have become accustomed to the Fed riding to the rescue, but that may not be such a wise ideas this time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apart from picking up a few holdings in the UK oil supermajors, I'm mostly remaining in cash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stock prices for BP on the FTSE are back at 1996 levels, even as the Bank of England delivered an emergency 50 basis points rate cut and a raft of stimulus measures to support business and markets (RBA take note), and as the value of its overseas earnings look set to increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But generally speaking, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines through this tumultuous period, especially given that the market could halve again, even from this point. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Aussies futures are pointing to another plunge at the open, and even since February 20 the moves are beginning to damage retirement accounts materially.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But again, even the likely 25 per cent drop we'll see during today's trade only takes the market back to where it was in mid-2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By no stretch of the imagination is the market 'cheap', especially given the dire outlook for earnings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The counterpoint is that at some point the coronavirus will likely pass, and given the massive global policy easing markets could eventually snap back (which is why a sensible asset allocation policy and written investment plan is so important).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
</body></html>

Coronavirus confirmed a global pandemic: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Is Perth about to boom?</p>
<p>The NAB survey today certainly suggests so.</p>
<div id="post-body-5780827678701089214" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>In Q3 Business Conditions for Western Australia practically exploded higher from a reading of 2 to 25, while business confidence went from a negative reading of -1 all the way up to 10 across a single quarter of trading. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/s740/NAB.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge:</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/s740/NAB.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h606/NAB.jpg" width="640" height="606" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="740"></a></div>
<br><div><em>Source: NAB</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Having barely been touched by COVID-10 since April, the local jobs market is clearly enjoying the stimulus, and jobs vacancies for Western Australia are suddenly at the highest level since the resources boom years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Is Perth property about to boom, then?</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
</body></html>

Perth property looks set to boom: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1448/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h356/A3.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1448"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1423/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/A2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1423"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>How did economists land <em><strong>so</strong></em> far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1412/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h362/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1451/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h354/A4.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1451"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
</body></html>

Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<p>The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism.</p>
<div id="post-body-5601314325818678673" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hc5_hvhNFjs/X71O8v9p9RI/AAAAAAAA5eY/InlB6hpEv6Ex_vRR2sEUWanYQTJNka_7ACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h528/XLE.jpg" width="640" height="528" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="779"></p>
<p>US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. </p>
<p>That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2HK376Pcy4/X71PWc8RvII/AAAAAAAA5eg/AADHBpCfXBcLG-7cPSalB2X1Tq5Qz0AYQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/US%2Btech.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="746"></p>
<p>The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. </p>
<p>Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. </p>
<div>What. A. Year!</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
</body></html>

Oil prices up 33%, stocks ballooning: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>A significant day for bank stocks as it was announced that the responsible lending laws that have been in place since 2009 will likely be wound back.</p>
<p>All of the major lenders saw a significant jump in their stock prices.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rTwQDOHXWzI/X22oV2eALlI/AAAAAAAA4dc/iJYtUBHI0YoyTZiy7GeAMEiY0hqf6P3FgCNcBGAsYHQ/s815/WBC.jpg"></p>
<p>This will no doubt act to speed up the pace of loan approvals and bank lending, albeit probably not for 6-12 months, with less of the forensic poring over household expenditure for mortgage applications, which has at times made the lending process more akin to an audit than a credit approval.</p>
<p>Most likely there will be an easing of some of the existing HEM restrictions as the legislation is passed, and less scrutiny of household expenditure line items.</p>
<p>The responsibility will more so fall back on to borrowers to declare complete and accurate information, instead of looking for lenders or brokers to blame wherever a loan goes bad.</p>
<p>This may also increase the availability and capacity for some individuals to borrow, though it remains to be seen how much.</p>
<p>Offsetting this to some extent will be the introduction of the best interests duty for brokers, effective 1 January 2021.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank had previously noted that lending had become excessively risk averse, and this move will slash approval times assuming it is legislated on a timely basis.</p>
<p><strong>Symbolic shift</strong></p>
<p>Moreover, the announced planned changes are symbolic, suggesting that the credit pendulum is now likely set to swing back in the other direction, after half a decade of tightening which reduced the total borrowing capacity of some borrowers by half.</p>
<p>The announcement will also foster more competition between banks, with one large lender immediately offering lower variable rates, including on investment loans.</p>
<p>There are still significant headwinds for the economy to be navigated, of course, but the combination of record low mortgage rates and the signaling of a simplified approval process should bring the housing market back to life in 2021.</p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
</body></html>

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News