<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Joel Robinson

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/02/vic-closes-in-on-full-employment" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> </a></p>
<div id="post-body-310214148269562303" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Wages tick along</span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>More wages weakness reported in the December 2018 quarter, though I doubt it'll be enough to move the needle for the Reserve Bank's view too much. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Wages growth was +0.6 per cent for the private sector, and +0.6 per cent for the public sector, seasonally adjusted, decimal point quibbles aside. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Annual growth in private sector wages of +2.29 per cent was still plenty slower than in the public sector at +2.53 per cent.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>However, this was the 'fastest' annual pace of growth in private sector - if you can justifiably use the word fast in this context - in the four years since December 2014.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>And it's also well ahead of headline inflation, which could feasibly sink to just 1½ per cent next quarter on lower fuel prices. </span></div>
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<br><div>As noted here previously (h/t Justin Smirk, Westpac) Victoria has been creating a thunderous volume of job openings and is nipping along nicely towards full employment, so wages will almost certainly pick up here. </div>
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<br><div>Indeed, at the state level for all sectors Victoria (+2.7 per cent) and New South Wales (+2.4 per cent) have accounted for most of the improvement since the nadir, while sprightly Tasmania (+2.6 per cent) is resurgent from a low base. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1393"></a></div>
<br><div>Not much joy here in Western Australia, though we should acknowledge that WA has seen by some margin the greatest increase in wages over the past two decades, so a bit of post-boom payback was perhaps due. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1371"></a></div>
<br><div>At the industry level the strongest wages growth was seen in healthcare and social assistance (+2.8 per cent), and electricity, gas, water, and waste (+2.8 per cent), while the weakest growth was in IT &amp; Telcos (+1.6 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>The wrap</span></span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>Still pretty sluggish overall, but skilled job vacancies came in at a near </span><span>7-</span><span>year high today, so there's still probably just enough evidence that the jobs market might pull through, provided credit flows a bit more freely in 2019. </span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

More wage weakness but VIC close in on full employment

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div>The Crestmont P/E is still levitating 119 per cent above its arithmetic mean, and remains close to the highest level in history at 33. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the tech bubble/bust the Crestmont P/E rose above 25 (denoting 'irrational exuberance') and momentarily touched the current record high of 33.7 before promptly crashing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In 1929 ahead of the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression the Crestmont P/E peaked at 26.4.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And before the subprime financial crisis it peaked at 24.7.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Here's the chart update until today:</em></div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3OpG8WGx6R8/XwAw2raZRTI/AAAAAAAA2ss/6lECqCwqzYIqVsn2irGMCfU5I2iE47ZcwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CRESTMONT.jpg" width="640" height="464" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="910"></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Advisor Perspectives</em></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em> </em></span></div>
<div>Earnings reports will be interesting to follow this year given that there's been a severe disruption to global economic activity in 2020. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back in Australia earnings expectations have been revised dramatically lower, for five sectors in particular:<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hA2yfrVmGiQ/XwAzRldfhYI/AAAAAAAA2tA/L69X-IeDMckAKMoKCDByQfFqgkdgotd4wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/MS.jpg" width="572" height="640" data-original-height="1395" data-original-width="1248"></div>
<div>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><br></em></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Morgan Stanley</em></span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Markets are forward-looking of course, but this puts PE valuations for the ASX 200 at extremely lofty levels. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7P8zzlWlhkU/XwAzb7cvj8I/AAAAAAAA2tE/jVLQ1ildzGk5tgTdxfgwdp5Qu4w8fG22gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/MS2.jpg" width="640" height="400" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: Morgan Stanley</em></span></div>
<p id="post-body-7807194319875705440" class="post-body entry-content">This would not be a good time to disappoint markets with an earnings miss, you'd think.</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><strong>Pete Wargent</strong><span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger</span><strong> </strong></p>
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Where are markets heading with nosebleed valuations: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">GUEST OBSERVER</h3>
<div class="post-header"> </div>
<div id="post-body-5220327253665162227" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Headline immigration slows</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>The January <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Jan%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures</a> figures revealed that permanent immigration into Australia continued to slow into the beginning of 2016, with a net +268,400 permanent and long term arrivals now tracking more than a third below the peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 13,610 permanent departures in January, the highest on record, although ABS research shows that most "permanent" departures actually return to our shores within a year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nllm0CzUbOg/VtzVN9aLYzI/AAAAAAAAbsQ/j5EQ-HSsAYY/s640/ARR1.jpg" width="640" height="350"></div>
<br><div>The composition of immigrants continues to shift away from New Zealanders and Britons, and towards permanent settlers of Asian origin, now accounting for a record 57.7 per cent share over the past 12 months.</div>
<br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1w0a3JXsOt8/VtzVO6qsuFI/AAAAAAAAbsk/Ua4W6MM6LoA/s640/ARR6.jpg" width="640" height="350"><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high 7.5 million arrivals</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the soft headline figures those hoping for a significant decline in Australian population growth are likely to be disappointed, with the wider picture being that population growth will probably only slow from extremely strong to strong.<br><br>Indeed, after accounting for the rapid growth in student visas, total population growth in Australia is probably already rising again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the year to January the number of short term arrivals blazed past 7.5 million for the first time in recording another strong +8.6 per cent rolling annual increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of short term departures is still creeping up, but a much more sedate pace, implying an exchange rate driven rebalancing. </div>
<br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XRjxdNt05RE/VtzVN3S-ucI/AAAAAAAAbsY/SUn_byjPb0I/s640/ARR3.jpg" width="640" height="338"><br><div> </div>
<div>There was a huge increase in the number of holiday makers to Australia in the year to January of +442,000 taking the annualised total up to a fresh high of 3.57 million, while an additional +119,400 folk came to visit friends &amp; family, taking the total for this category up to a record 2.04 million. </div>
<br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bqgko3XUhEE/VtzVOrpQBMI/AAAAAAAAbsg/QSKZ6hUP6Gg/s640/ARR5.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><div> </div>
<div>The key reason that population growth is unlikely to slow is the vast projected boom in international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 55,000 education arrivals in January, by a huge margin the biggest January on record, and it seems to be a nailed on certainty that 2016 will be the greatest ever year for the enrolment of international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More relaxed visa rules mean that many thousands of these students will end up becoming permanent residents in time. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MwGAtOVgnCU/VtzVN5KEkSI/AAAAAAAAbsU/BU61yN7ijtA/s640/ARR2.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">Last, but certainly not least, the explosion in visitors from China has virtually torn the roof off, with an astonishing +57.3 per cent increase from January 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3RkQcEPt8YA/VtzVOttl-yI/AAAAAAAAbsc/JQFSsT-UH4w/s640/ARR4.jpg" width="640" height="348"></div>
<br><div>Naturally the most popular month in the calendar year for Chinese visitors will be February, due to the lunar year. The raw original data show that Chinese visitors in that month have ramped up at an astonishing pace:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Feb 2012 - 66,500</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2013 - 110,400</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2014 - 104,400 </strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2015 - 164,400</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that Febuary 2016 was another record-breaker, but we'll have to wait another month for the official confirmation of that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The full suite of figures appear to tie with DIBP forecasts of population growth bottoming out at somewhere close to 300,000 per annum, before increasing strongly over the remainder of the decade.<br><br>It is important to note that most of the population slowdown has been in mining and resources regions - the largest capital cities have barely experienced any slowing at all to date.<br><br>Evidently the composition of immigration moving forward will be very different, with Asia being the key driver of population and tourism growth.<br><br>---<br><br>Chinese iron ore, coke and rebar futures have all hit limit up during today's trade, while crude might even get back to $40.<br><br>Nice to see. A few mining stocks are going ballistic. </div>
</div>
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Asian century tees off in Australia: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are certainly some weird ideas out there about property supply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of Pyrmont, if only because I lived there for many years, and as a property owner in the suburb, it's one of the locations I know pretty well. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From time to time I've heard it said that suburbs like Pyrmont have "too much supply".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess I can kind of see why you might think that if you'd just landed in Sydney, for with about 13,000 residents jammed in to one tight square kilometre, it's the densest suburb in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thing is, the bit of the suburb where people want to live was developed about 25 years ago now!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been very little of note lately, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From memory that was a little unit development on Pyrmont Bridge Road, and there's been a bit going on at Ultimo. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oh, and then there was Lend Lease's 391 apartments in the new 40-storey tower at Darling Square, although they sold out in, what, five hours?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you were to fast forward to a decade's time I expect that Wentworth Park and White Bay will be developed with apartments, probably the fish markets too one day, while if Mirvac get their way there will be a commercial/residential tower on top of what is now the Harbourside tourist trap.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These types of developments can take years to become a reality, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the end of the day, there isn't an oversupply issue here because more and more people want to live in the area by the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately there are shedloads of people like me who'd enjoy a lazy 5-minute stroll into the city in the morning instead of driving through miles of petroleum fumes and vehicular logjam. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the inevitable frictional vacancies, vacancy rates in Pyrmont are essentially zero. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s640/PYMRONT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s1600/PYMRONT.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s640/PYMRONT.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></p>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There will be the new developments over time, but we're more or less always playing catch up with demand. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You could say the same of, say, Coogee in the beachside eastern suburbs, or Manly to the north. Stacks of demand, not much of note being built. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even in inner-city Erskineville, which has seen development aplenty both within the suburb and all around it, vacancy rates are very tight, because it's such a convenient and popular location to live in. Loads of demand.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s640/ERKO.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s1600/ERKO.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s640/ERKO.jpg" width="640" height="342"></a></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Those are the kind of suburbs I don't mind owning property forever in, through the cyclical peaks and troughs.</div>
<p>Apartment glut<br><br> Now, this is not to say that things aren't a little different elsewhere.</p>
<div>Where exactly? Follow the cranes!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wentworth Point is just a mass of new apartments, and without being unkind, I can't imagine what it would be like to live there.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess you'd soon get used to it, though, since as far as I could tell there's only one road in and out (like the Twiglet zone: "Easy to enter, impossible to leave")!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Vacancy rates are up, up and away...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s640/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s1600/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s640/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" width="640" height="350"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div>In Parramatta, there have been high rise towers going up all over the show throughout the last year, a huge concentration risk of generic, high rise, shoebox apartments. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With net multi-unit completions rising fast in 2015 and 2016, vacancy rates have already increased to well above 3 per cent, and there's always an inherent risk of understatement in reported vacancy rates at this stage in the construction cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were another 3,500 dwellings approved in the last financial year too, and overwhelmingly, they were multi-unit in nature at 2,750. Golly gosh...</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s640/PARRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s1600/PARRA.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s640/PARRA.jpg" width="640" height="356"></a><br><br> I also read somewhere this week that Blacktown is about to "boom".</p>
<div>Hmm, well that depends how you define 'boom', I guess! A construction boom, maybe. A boom in traffic congestion?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That too! I'm somewhat less than convinced about there being a 2017 property boom in the conventional sense, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that you can say in favour of the LGA of Blacktown is that at least there is a level of diversity of development stock between apartments and detached dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even so, with more than 11,700 dwellings approved over the last three years and a huge construction pipeline, it looks likely to me that vacancy rates will only be heading north putting more downward pressure on rates.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s640/BLACKTOWN.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s1600/BLACKTOWN.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s640/BLACKTOWN.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are plenty more suburbs like Parramatta and Blacktown that face a surfeit of new stock as mentioned here previously, including in the Hills District. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And that's before we even mention the wild exuberance in Western Sydney house prices, with suburb records being smashed by the month in 2016 just as mortgage rates are now beginning to creep back up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It'll be very interesting to watch all of this play out in 2017. </div>
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Stock versus flow in inner-Sydney apartments: Pete Wargent

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.5 per cent over the year to August 2017, with business credit recording a solid +0.5 per cent expansion in the month.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week APRA had reported that a number of banks saw the total value of their loan books decline in August, most notably the Commonwealth Bank, following a tumultuous stretch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, all of the major banks now have investment loan books growing at a rate well below the 10 per cent speed limit imposed by the regulator, implying headroom to lend more to investors going forward. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1366"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, with a significant number of banks showing declines in their loan books during the month, this suggests that macroprudential measures are beginning to slow down lending from quite a few banks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, perhaps the regulator is breathing down the necks of lenders just a bit more heavily than before. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1408"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>More loans being switched to principal and interest will help to see loan book balances ease too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In spite of this, the RBA reported housing credit growing by +6.6 per cent over the year, actually a notched faster than a year previously. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit is now approaching $1.7 trillion, with a substantial volume of loans being switched from investment to owner-occupier (no less than $58 billion since July 2015). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1444"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The only reasonable conclusion appears to be that non-bank lenders are stepping in to pick up the slack, and total housing debt continues to power on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The only thing that will definitely stop the housing credit juggernaut, it seems, is rising interest rates, and these seem to be a way off yet. </div>
<p> </p>
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Housing credit shift to non-banks?

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<div>Since the introduction of new incentives, the number of dwellings <span style="text-decoration: underline;">financed</span> by first homebuyers bolted to the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/record-high-for-housing-finance" target="_blank">highest level in 92 months</a> in August 2017, so households are now being formed apace, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHBs.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s640/FHBs.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1365"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's much, much more to household formation than just this, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall I showed from the 2016 Census figures that Australia's migration programme has led to a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/demographic-tsunami-will-keep-sydney-melbourne-property-prices-high-20170629-gx1onj" target="_blank">demographic tsunami</a>, being millions of 25 to 32 year-olds in Australia, about to swamp the housing markets, heavily focused on Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Separate figures reporting the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">characteristics of recent migrants</a> showed that it's overwhelmingly now the capital cities that are about to be swamped, because new migrants flock to the capital cities, and end up staying there. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many first-timers are electing to rent where they live, and are instead buying investment properties as their first step onto the ladder, so the real number of first-time buyers is tracking at close to the long run average. Plus there's the trend towards co-ownership, as <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/real-estate/victoria/cobuying-a-solution-to-the-biggest-challenge-facing-buyers/news-story/e4fe88a599069d749765595101f2ba80" target="_blank">recently reported</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The 'bank of Mum &amp; Dad'</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps as significantly, there are the parents buying homes for their kids, which is new household formation not reported in the first homebuyer finance numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We are now seeing this going on practically all the time at auctions in Sydney and Brisbane - to be blunt, it pushes up prices - and evidently it's a big thing down in Melbourne and Geelong too. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s400/Cate1.jpg" width="353" height="400" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="612"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s400/Cate.jpg" width="400" height="73" data-original-height="101" data-original-width="547"></a></div>
<div>
<br>Cate Bakos of <a href="https://www.catebakos.com.au/" target="_blank">Cate Bakos Property</a> in Melbourne notes that it's not only the first homebuyer sector that's being impacted by inherited money:<br><br><em>"Parents are impacting competition levels significantly. Firstly in the first homebuyer concession range - which is already screaming along with heightened borrowing capacity - and secondly the upgrader stakes. We are seeing and hearing of parents paying it forward with inheritance money."</em><br><br>Affordability has been a drag on household formation to some extent since the financial crisis.<br><br>However, this is projected to be more than offset by an ageing population - empty-nesters and downsizers - more divorces, more separations, widowhood, and a nascent yet growing trend towards <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3236.0Media%20Release12011%20to%202036?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3236.0&amp;issue=2011%20to%202036&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">lone-person households</a> living in apartments. And that's before we mention all the empty dwellings.<br><br>Over the longer term, the ABS forecasts that the number of households will increase by well over 50 per cent to 12.7 million over the 25 years to 2036.</div>
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First home buyer numbers bolt

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<p>National residential listings fell by -4.8% to 303,901 in January, as sellers enjoyed the sunshine and trotting off on their summer hols, according to SQM Research. </p>
<p>The monthly drop was driven by Melbourne (-13.9%) and Sydney (-6.9%). </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X7AEY3BIk_M/WnlqPY5kKZI/AAAAAAAAoNM/Y9pH5Jfk3NsUDwG7pDjrLpZnLfxuKmnxQCLcBGAs/s640/sqm1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1376"></p>
<p>Despite the monthly decline, Sydney's listings at 26,150 are at the highest level since January 2009, being some +20.9% higher than a year earlier.<br><br> For the first time in nearly half a decade, Sydney buyers will actually have some choice!</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum Melbourne listings are -11.9% lower year-on-year, while Hobart listings have copped an absolute shellacking. </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0qjmmDauP0/WnmHj7Y11uI/AAAAAAAAoN8/YzsUfjuU2GUoiY2LrrmHG9VhQG7pBTIcACLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1359"></p>
<p>Hobart's housing market is now a buyer's nightmare with just 2,362 listings across the metropolitan area being some -29.1% down from January 2017. </p>
<p>More strong price gains ahead for Hobart housing this year, then. </p>
<p>In most other capital city markets stock listings were relatively flat from a year ago.<br><br> Reported SQM: "Looking forward, with interest rates still at low levels and a possible expansion in lending by the banks, we expect a year of modest prices gains in Sydney and most other capital cities."</p>
<p>Interestingly SQM is quite positive for Sydney's prospects in 2018, certainly more so than most other commentators. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</p>
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Hobart housing market is a buyer's nightmare: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">One of several reasons that some of Australia's property markets might fare surprisingly well in 2018 is the looming equities correction, driven by volatility in the US and elsewhere. </p>
<div id="post-body-3635881065614058753" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>It's now become clear (if it wasn't already obvious) that <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">interest rates aren't going to be hiked</a> this year, and probably not next either. </p>
<div>Employment is picking up nicely in some capital cities, and population growth is rising too, driving demand for housing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the lack of enticing alternatives will keep a healthy volume of investors interested in real estate, with the cash rate stuck at record lows for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since closing at 6135.81 on January 9, the Aussie share market as measured by the ASX 200 index has already dropped by -5.13 per cent. </div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s1600/ASX.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s640/ASX.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1373"></a></div>
<div><span><strong> </strong></span></div>
<div>An inauspicious start to 2018 to say the least. </div>
<div><span><strong> </strong></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span><strong>'Pain trade'</strong></span></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>US stock futures are up quite strongly at the time of writing, so perhaps tomorrow will be a better trade Down Under. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>But somehow it seems doubtful that stock market nerves are going to be settled for a while yet. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>That's the uncanny tendency of markets to deliver the maximum amount of punishment to the most investors from time to time, especially after a long, strong run.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Myer (ASX: MYR) finished today's trade with a fresh low close of 55 cents. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Shorters should now be wary of the takeover risk. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span></span></div>
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
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Share correction could help Australia property markets

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OK, first things first. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am indeed a so-termed vested interest: I would like to see full employment, stronger wages and household income growth, the Aussie economy growing at least at trend or ideally above trend, and I don't want to see the housing market getting zinged unnecessarily. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yep, you got me on that one. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With these formalities out of the way, I saw APRA's latest ADI exposures today described as 'red alert lending data', very 'concerning', a 'loosening' of lending standards, that should be 'ringing alarm bells' to APRA due to lenders 'breaking their own rules', among various other remarks (source: Digital Finance Analytics). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the record, while blog-flaming isn't really my bag, I must wholeheartedly disagree on each and every point!<br><br>Whatevs, I'll post a few deets and you can make your own mind up...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stock of IO loans plunges</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, the flow of new interest-only (IO) loans in Q2 2018 was a meagre 16.6 per cent of residential term loans, absolutely miles below the initially proposed cap of 30 per cent (and a world apart from the 45.6 per cent record high of Q2 2015). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With far fewer loans written overall from a year earlier in spite of a strong increase in the Aussie population, this represented a modest increase in percentage terms from the preceding quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the actual number of interest-only loans was some 52 per cent lower than in the corresponding quarter of the prior year - and almost 70 per cent lower than the number written at the peak of IO lending in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A 'loosening'? Hardly.<br><br>But even if more IO loans were to be written henceforth I personally don't believe that would be <span>a bad thing.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The last thing<span> we need <span>is $½ trilli</span>on of IO</span> mortgages being reset with undue haste - unless you actually want to see the housing market get stiffed, which of course many people do - and some breathing space would surely be welcomed by a portion of existing IO borrowers. </span></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tFVWEE8Ibxg/W5kafR9EsAI/AAAAAAAAr3M/i525R8a2Vz0RTipYynJRdMnqcv0vtlPHwCLcBGAs/s640/IO1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Regardless of your views on that, there was another enormous decline in the stock of IO loans in the June quarter, with IO loan balances outstanding now having plunged some $119 billion lower over the past five quarters. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of IO loans outstanding through June 2018 was thus by some margin at the lowest level across the entire data series at about 29 per cent, down from close to 40 per cent in late 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that these numbers only run to the end of the 2018 financial year; at the current trajectory the share of IO loans will likely be around 26.9 per cent by the end of this month, a figure that was truly unthinkable only last year, and the lowest level in decades. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VvYLsKyPgs4/W5kafal-H0I/AAAAAAAAr3c/Z0gyForrg7IQlC8ki_SD-5ePZVQnPQW_wCEwYBhgL/s640/Io3.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1367"></div>
<p><br><span>A loosening...very droll.</span><br><br></p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Less and less and less high-LVR lending</span></strong><br><br>Secondly, in relation to DFA's 'red alert' on lending standards, the loan-to-value (LVR) ratios on new loans have been tightening incrementally for the better part of half a decade now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loan volumes are down, there was a miniscule change in Q2 for the share of new loans written at 80 per cent LVR or above, while loans written above 90 per cent LVR or above have never been as low as they are today since the available records began.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'Red alert'? You must be having a giraffe, surely - we've literally never seen lending standards remotely like it!</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-myr13CMquKE/W5kafSp7IYI/AAAAAAAAr3I/yRholEdAVYs5ZbZ6AiRGWIEbZtAQeLy0QCLcBGAs/s640/IO2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, low-doc and other non-standard loans are also tracking at the lowest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fourthly, the quarterly flow of new investment loans plunged by the best part of $5 billion year-on-year, so how you conclude a sudden loosening of standards from that I can't fathom (automatic red card for anyone directly comparing volumes from Q1 to Q2). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And fifthly, a word that is devilishly hard to spell at the best of times, DFA cites loans approved outside serviceability, noting that these should be ringing 'alarm bells' to the regulator.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fair suck of the sauce bottle, mate, but this almost certainly represents a timing issue and reflects <em><strong>tighter</strong> </em>lending standards, not looser.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can't tell me with a straight face that banks are blithely waving through marginal or borderline applications and then willingly reporting them as such in the current lending environment. Not happenin'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'I could go on...', as Jon Culshaw's impersonation of Russell Crowe might drily observe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due apologies for the apparent curtness, but this stuff has a tendency to be uncritically reported by rote, so someone needs to chime in with a few of these inconvenient actualities.<br><br>Much obliged. As you were :-)</div>
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Interest-only loans running at 70 per cent down on 2015 peak: Pete Wargent

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<div><span>EXPERT OBSERVATION</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) released its Annual Report for the 2017 financial year, and as expected it showed that investment in new apartments from mainland Chinese investors has been annihilated by a combination of fee charges and tighter capital controls.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>There's much more to the Annual Report than just the residential real estate investment aspect, of course, but this is a blog not an Encyclopaedia Britannica so let's crack straight into it.</span><span><br></span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Although the impact on total foreign investment was played down in the report, the reality is that the number of residential approvals have been smoked, down by 67 per cent from the prior year. </span></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMTpeaTHMM4/WwyhL22FvEI/AAAAAAAAqP0/8gaf_QtZb183rLkVwdH45jQUDJNGnkdRQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMTpeaTHMM4/WwyhL22FvEI/AAAAAAAAqP0/8gaf_QtZb183rLkVwdH45jQUDJNGnkdRQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1337"></a></div>
<div>Similarly the value of residential approvals crashed 65 per cent lower from $72.4 billion to $25.2 billion. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeKkUWK9UlM/WwyhMNmDdLI/AAAAAAAAqP4/8tL55X2DYeMHxJaDttmNpm2Z3WPJ1uxcQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeKkUWK9UlM/WwyhMNmDdLI/AAAAAAAAqP4/8tL55X2DYeMHxJaDttmNpm2Z3WPJ1uxcQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1376"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The bulk of new approvals through this unprecedented cycle have been for new dwelling exemption certificates, mainly for Chinese investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking at these numbers it's not hard to understand how Sydney now has more apartments approved but not yet commenced than at any time in its history, as <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/bust-looms-for-sydneys-apartment" target="_blank">detailed here previously</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The offshore buyers have dried up, demand from domestic investors has been stymied, and the demand from owner-occupiers is insufficient to get new development project finance across the line. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NB_Pr0ox8ag/WwyhMFmGT_I/AAAAAAAAqP8/QW3ddVDDvDsLNYRsM8ydj3RaFs_WdVtqQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NB_Pr0ox8ag/WwyhMFmGT_I/AAAAAAAAqP8/QW3ddVDDvDsLNYRsM8ydj3RaFs_WdVtqQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1354"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Statistically it appears to be a certainty that Sydney will experience the greatest number of failed apartment projects as these trends flow through. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oB--8HHlBVI/WwyhNNBYK4I/AAAAAAAAqQA/jcgvA_iBayUyUp_smd7mvblQxlk_NFajQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oB--8HHlBVI/WwyhNNBYK4I/AAAAAAAAqQA/jcgvA_iBayUyUp_smd7mvblQxlk_NFajQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB4.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>I expect to see plenty of apartment projects stalling, and increasing signs of discounting on new Sydney apartments.<br><br>Perhaps this was an inevitable end-game for this cycle, where development has been too much skewed towards apartments for investors, and too little towards the types of medium-density dwellings that people want to reside in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As noted, there is much more to foreign investment than just new apartment purchases, with total investment of $168 billion only 4 per cent below the level seen in the prior year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And indeed, investment in manufacturing, agriculture, ports, other commercial real estate, and resources has catapulted China to become by far and away the greatest investor in Australia at $38.9 billion in FY2017, miles ahead of the United States in second place at $26.5 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nevertheless, these figures will have some significant impacts on the new apartment sector, construction trends, and the broader economy - and especially so in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
</div>
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