<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

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<p>A result that will surprise a few observers, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported unaudited cash earnings of around $2.65 billion for the quarter, up by +6% on improved margins. </p>
<p>There were seasonal declines in personal loans and credit card arrears.</p>
<p>An interesting point of note was that 90-plus day home loan arrears were tracking at 0.59%, marginally lower from the preceding quarter. </p>
<p>CBA noted that 90-plus day home loan arrears have declined slightly over the past few years to 0.48% when the state of Western Australia is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cfk8FlVcMbY/WgNFN4xiRpI/AAAAAAAAm7A/fnLLJO2PFkcnuw_PLTaZYnimSeBQ2fzJgCLcBGAs/s640/CBA.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1012"></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Home loan arrears tracking lower at CommBank: Pete Wargent

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<div>Within the Consumer Price Index figures, the ABS produces some very useful quality-adjusted figures on rental price inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series shows how rents can rise very fast when investors are spooked out of the market, such as between 1985 and 1987 (changes to tax legislation) and 2008 (global financial crisis).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When investor activity is high, on the other hand, the growth in rents is likely to be weaker, and this is also the case when low interest rates make buying a home comparatively more attractive than renting. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, nationally annual rental price growth is at its lowest level in more than 22 years, at 0.6 per cent.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s1600/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a><br><br>In Perth, annual rental growth has turned negative to the tune of -7.2 per cent.<br><br></p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="352"></a></div>
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<div>Darwin is by some margin the weakest rental market, with rents declining by -8.2 per cent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other side of the ledger, Hobart is the tightest capital city rental market, with quality-adjusted rents increasing by 3.5 per cent in 2016. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A look at the long-run figures shows that despite the supply response real rents in both Sydney and Melbourne continued to rise to all-time highs. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<p> In real terms, at the city level Brisbane rents are certain to move lower in 2017 due to the inner city apartments overbuild. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</p>
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Where capital city rents are falling further in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
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<div>Very cagey auction activity in Sydney, with a preliminary clearance rate of only 44.5 per cent (more like somewhere in the thirties come final). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The median auction price of a sold house was well down from a year earlier at $1,285,000, reflecting reduced borrowing capacity (mainly for investors rather than homebuyers). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For units the median price of property sold at auction was up from $900,000 a year earlier to $940,250.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But still very muted activity levels overall.<br><br>
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<br><div>Melbourne's clearance rate is also now well under 50 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">ALP in the ascendancy</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Coalition roundly punished by the electorate in the Wentworth by-election for their machinations and tanking to a minority government in the process, property market participants will need to weigh up the potential impacts of changes to negative gearing legislation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll post an online workshop on this very subject this week, so keep an eye out for that. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Tightening</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thanks for the thousand or so Tweets, messages, and pingbacks about record underutilisation and the like - a pleasure as always! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yes, it's a problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No, it's not been getting worse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Volume measures - reported quarterly on an original basis - have consistently improved year-on-year since 2014...through 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 year-to-date.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All publicly available information from the ABS:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8PwnBImzULE/W8ogJ9Ym19I/AAAAAAAAse4/wNu6at2drA8ml6ZCrU3QPZTz8kDzBRKOQCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8PwnBImzULE/W8ogJ9Ym19I/AAAAAAAAse4/wNu6at2drA8ml6ZCrU3QPZTz8kDzBRKOQCLcBGAs/s640/ABS1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1322"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yes, there is more work to be done (literally so in this case!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank has noted the same patterns, but still believes that the unemployment rate is the key measure, and that's at the lowest level since 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No, this won't be reported in left-leaning media<em>, </em>nor for that matter whichever 'recession' blogs you may care to mention.<br><br><em>C'est tout. </em>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cheers!<br><br>Very low preliminary auction clearance rates this weekend, under 50 per cent for Melbourne, and just 44 per cent for Sydney.<br><br>It'll be a long, slow run into Christmas from here this year. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Auctions fizzle out for 2018

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<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
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Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a happy new year, and all that, but not so much for bankers, with lending growth continuing to flounder. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's latest figures showed credit growth slowing to 4.4 per cent, down from 5.2 per cent a year earlier, and broad money growth at fresh quarter-century lows of just 1.86 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1I8fNGCXk6k/XCqUFoyKJPI/AAAAAAAAtsc/xXakammeXQAlHhvGQp9I_UB9FnMLp02cwCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1383"></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>It was noteworthy to hear last week that the RBA has been watching the gross household debt-to-income ratio as a main point of concern, especially as <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/12/debt-ratio-revised-lower-now-falling" target="_blank">this ratio has already peaked and is now falling</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The distinction from <em>housing</em> debt-to-income was quite interesting (to me at least) as the lines between housing, small business, and personal credit are blurred at best, with small business loans often secured against a home, and so on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the chart below, changes in the direction of housing credit growth have tended to lead changes in dwelling price growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can also see that no such change had occurred by the end of November 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Dqi23bcB6-Q/XCqUHZwLEgI/AAAAAAAAtsg/RKoxndSCpVUL5OIvz-ZGLEb4G8XspSL5gCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A simple credit impulse model as favoured by ANZ economists suggests that capital city (i.e. Sydney and Melbourne) dwelling price declines should moderate, although there are several factors unique to this cycle - not least the boom and bust in Chinese investors - that could throw the model a bit off course (this may have already happened to some extent since 2014). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hg19s7pQfzU/XCqUE6b5LmI/AAAAAAAAtsY/pvq8s6-v7MEhCHqgIJamHA7GeoF0vQUcQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1341"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Investor credit growth was already at the lowest level on record, and it fell to even lower levels last month, allowing APRA to remove another of its now-redundant arbitrary caps, this time on interest-only lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the enormous growth in the population aged 25 to 34 in particular, this is now a remarkably low level of growth in investor credit, even if it did follow on from a boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LmCPOkyIAMs/XCqUDn5r1zI/AAAAAAAAtsU/43fTNK6yncENxThK3etijkbED9oHjaPAgCLcBGAs/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1402"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Not surprisingly the growth in owner-occupier credit also declined for a ninth consecutive month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will release its latest home value index for the month of December, and this will show significant declines for Sydney and Melbourne in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>In short, business credit was moderate, personal credit was negative, and housing credit has no pulse - let's hope that doesn't turn into a full-blown coronary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Happy New Year! </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.</em></div>
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2018 finishes with housing credit having no pulse: Pete Wargent

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<div>I took a look <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/06/unemployment-falls-to-54pc" target="_blank">here</a> at the employment growth figures during the week, which broadly showed that the unemployment rate in Australia is back down to where it was in 2013. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of unemployed persons dropped sharply in the month of May, down by 26,800 to 714,600, taking the unemployment rate down from 5.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's the good news. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The state making the most substantial inroads lately has been Victoria, with the number of unemployed persons down to 174,400 from 208,500 a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Very good news!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate in Victoria has declined accordingly to 5.1 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that's getting quite close to the 4.9 per cent of New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some progress, then, but overall there are still more than 700,000 out of work, and there remains plenty of slack in the labour force nationally. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A look at the trend chart for unemployed persons underscores this point.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October 2014 the two most populous states had a combined 442,900 unemployed persons, a figure that's since fallen by about 60,000 or 14 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxFOA13nJc8/WyQxuec63KI/AAAAAAAAqkg/-i5Ua9cfvEAOpAUXxC42-sr0pzY3aOaDACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1400"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Elsewhere, however, in aggregate there's been little meaningful progress. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With regards to underemployment, the the trend rate declined to 8.5 per cent in May 2017, which is a bit below peak of 8.7 per cent seen in 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the underutilisation rate also declined by 0.4 per cent to 13.9 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just about enough evidence here to suggest an ongoing improvement.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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Like Sydney before it, Melbourne is enjoying the fruits of its construction boom: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its residential property price indexes for the March 2017 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although these figures are retrospective, they are always instructive, and reflected tighter lending conditions this quarter.<br><br>The total value of the dwelling stock was a nick lower at $6.9 billion - albeit well up from $4.4 trillion in 2011 - putting the mean price of residential dwellings at $687,700, and leaving housing market equity of around $5.1 trillion or so.<br><br>At the national level there was a quarterly decline in prices of 0.7 per cent, now leaving prices just 2 per cent higher than a year earlier.<br><br><div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9R8EKvyr-OM/Wyj1MIgAlSI/AAAAAAAAqqs/5G67ClzQiVoeyNpa8vqZZzemSMEV9LrEACLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1395"></div>
<br>The quarterly price decline was mainly accounted for by the most populous city, Sydney, with Melbourne also posting a moderate 0.6 per cent decline. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_I8O3aTkJ5o/WyiF8ypih3I/AAAAAAAAqpo/R3vnm6-7XlATYOwm8AF8keBapidus9SHgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1395"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Zooming in on the New South Wales capital, from a year earlier attached dwelling prices in Sydney were still 0.4 per cent higher, but house prices were 0.8 per cent lower (though all dwelling types were below their respective June 2017 cyclical peaks).  </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wNnHFlyHk1U/WyiF8slwydI/AAAAAAAAqpk/_RjURGNUegYrdMBsqwgjfrbrq_qZ-6NYgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1457"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Over the year to March 2018 the strongest price growth was seen in Hobart at 14.1 per cent, and the weakest was seen in Darwin at negative 6.5 per cent.<br><br>There was moderate year-on-year price growth in Melbourne (6.2 per cent), Canberra (3.8 per cent), Adelaide (2.6 per cent), and two-speed Brisbane (1.6 per cent), while Perth looks (-1.5 per cent) looks to be bottoming out.<br><br>Finally, there was all the usual explosive commentary about crashing transaction volumes at unprecedented lows (and imploding dwelling completions), as there is each and every quarter.<br><br>But, of course, these numbers are preliminary, and as such they are always apparently crashing or at unprecedented lows - until they are revised up next quarter.</div>
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ABS suggests Perth property downturn looks looks to be bottoming out: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The regulatory throttling of mortgage lending maintained its firm stranglehold in the first quarter of 2018, with interest-only lending remaining at just 15.7 per cent of new residential term loans by value (a far cry from 45.6 per cent at the September 2015 peak). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both the stock and flow of interest-only loans has been significantly reduced by the introduced macroprudential measures. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2jv1gfRCvAw/Wysf2SDxvrI/AAAAAAAAqss/WcKMXyO_Hp0MOWLqTZC2PrTCLWw5XHb9ACLcBGAs/s1600/APRA1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2jv1gfRCvAw/Wysf2SDxvrI/AAAAAAAAqss/WcKMXyO_Hp0MOWLqTZC2PrTCLWw5XHb9ACLcBGAs/s640/APRA1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1374"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tighter loan-to-value (LVR) ratios also continued to be applied in Q1, with just 6.8 per cent of new residential lending at LVRs of 90 per cent or greater in the March 2018 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7mEIZLUEhXo/Wysf2kwS39I/AAAAAAAAqsw/oNlM9WmxH6sZOhK4rQHu8m3clxqeyt0bgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA3.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7mEIZLUEhXo/Wysf2kwS39I/AAAAAAAAqsw/oNlM9WmxH6sZOhK4rQHu8m3clxqeyt0bgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1378"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Loans approved outside serviceability were well down from the December 2017 quarter spike, but remained at an elevated level implying that tighter standards almost certainly continued to bite throughout the first half of 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TAISqpuzD5s/Wysf2uTdZ5I/AAAAAAAAqtA/m_X8X5T_vl82Rt4rcFuuj19tw9Z8pcYRACEwYBhgL/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TAISqpuzD5s/Wysf2uTdZ5I/AAAAAAAAqtA/m_X8X5T_vl82Rt4rcFuuj19tw9Z8pcYRACEwYBhgL/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1360"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Interest-only loans stay low: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration ramps up</span></strong> </h3>
<div id="post-body-155762510240148591" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cXo6Ufv2gDQ/WjJTzVumIyI/AAAAAAAAnf4/BBlzAgtAwhAF_LC6OW8FhT3NgdFEhc8CwCEwYBhgL/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1365"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LZZuYdS5HSM/WjJT0FS0FDI/AAAAAAAAngA/m-EYw80q2zMkI46Laz-D1m9bnJ2KIuIqgCEwYBhgL/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1370"></div>
<br>The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The MEL-SYD magnet</span></strong><br><br><div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pl2VghDoCuo/WjJTza1LiDI/AAAAAAAAnf8/3UmliFCK3nMN_VUDh84b-0nWa6p-3s5UgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1392"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dfDLEg-BH-8/WjJTzaFtR8I/AAAAAAAAnf0/qAOH-d7gZfQiSN6yQ4oT8TgHKHpToZwpgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1384"></div>
<br><span>The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland. </span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bMxm4NYxqrc/WjLC27yxf5I/AAAAAAAAngY/9zYLijf0apQg8BZFiDK4pRf_kjivTGldQCLcBGAs/s640/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span>
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER </strong></p>
<div><span>Permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia totalled 844,960 over the year to November, up 2 per cent from a year earlier, but just a notch lower over the past two months. </span></div>
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<div><span>Net of departures, total arrivals were around 297,000, implying population growth of around 380,000 or 1½ per cent after accounting for natural population growth (births minus deaths). </span></div>
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<div><span><strong>Asian century</strong><br><br><span>Tourism was still romping along until November, on the back of the Asian century.</span></span></div>
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<div><span>And short-term international education arrivals hit yet another record high at 619,100 over the year to November. </span></div>
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<div>Unfortunately, the raging bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in the tourism figures, blowing yet another hole into the ailing Aussie economy.</div>
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<div>The growth in short-term arrivals over the year to November was driven by Victoria (up 6 per cent year-on-year) and Tasmania (up 8 per cent).</div>
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<div><span><span>There's been a fairly sharp drop in short-term arrivals from Hong Kong as the unrest and demonstrations continued. </span></span></div>
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<div><span>There's less tourism from Hong Kong, but plenty of capital is winding its way back to Australia.</span></div>
<p><em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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