<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p>Sherpa Group has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at Flourish Soleira in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with Flourish Amargo, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Joel Robinson

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Huh, so much for the predicted 'disorderly rush for the exits'.</p>
<p>4.5 years of rising property prices later listing volumes and turnover rates have sunk to their lowest levels on record, as a percentage of total property stock. </p>
<p>Having executed its IPO, McGrath (ASX:MEA) provided the below chart as part of its Presentation to the 2016 Annual General Meeting.</p>
<div id="post-body-3609892557233707334" class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="/images/2016/11/25/MEA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/25/MEA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: ASX: MEA</em></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">McGrath's diagnosis left little doubt as to the reason for this, being excessively high stamp duty costs.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's a point I've visited here often before. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Stamp duty bands were designed with far, far lower dwelling prices in mind.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">By consistently refusing to raise stamp duty and land transfer brackets authorities are effectively loading more and more up front tax on to property purchases (in addition to other taxes, such as rates and land taxes).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">By effectively raising the stamp duty from a bit over 1 percent of the purchase price three decades ago to around 4 percent, the tax has gone from being a consequence or by-product of the transaction to an actual barrier. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">No doubt the stamp duty windfall has been great for state governments and their overflowing coffers, particularly in New South Wales which has raised $8.6 billion in the last year alone and where we have net debt of less than zero for the first time ever. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately, the high transactional cost of moving is predictably leading to 'asset lock in' and indirectly impacting labour force mobility.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Meanwhile investors remain wedded to their buy-and-hold strategies since if they choose to sell they get hit with capital gains tax (not that this stops unthinking 'think tanks' from campaigning for higher CGT). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As for non-residents, presumably some of them must sell but I've rarely come across it, probably because they purchase expensive new property and it can take years to break even on that type of stock with its inherent price premium (particularly now with the new levies on foreign buyers loaded on top of stamp duties, plus land taxes). </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Asset lock in</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly capital city owners of houses now hold on to their houses for 10.7 years on average, way up from 6.7 years in 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owners of apartments now hold for 9 years, well up from 5.9 years in 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The negative feedback look has become self-fulfilling, with so little stock available prospective capital city vendors are hesitant to list for fear of becoming locked out of rising markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due to low listing volumes, McGrath implied that we can expect to see low transaction volumes in FY17. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Listings lowest on record says McGrath: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><strong>Expert Observer</strong></p>
<p>It was announced in the 2017 Budget speech that the regulator APRA will explicitly be allowed to differentiate loan controls by location.</p>
<p>This is another move signalling that politicians and regulators don't trust banks to lend responsibly, while simultaneously inferring that they know better than the market what 'should' be happening in terms of property markets and lending activity (which may be a positive thing or a very worrying development depending on your outlook!).</p>
<p>Practically speaking this means that APRA might look to restrict the flow of credit into 'hot' housing markets - basically, Sydney - while presumably steering clear of intervention in markets where prices and rents are in a multi-year freefall (such as Darwin, Gladstone, or indeed any number of of Australia's resources regions).</p>
<p>This all sounds jolly good on paper, until you think about all of the potential ramifications of regulatory intervention. There isn't the space here to go into detail on this point, but it's a concern!</p>
<p><strong>Lending finance rebounds</strong></p>
<p>The March 2017 Lending Finance figures, which strangely never seem to get any media coverage, saw total lending jump tidily from $67.6 billion to $72.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2f6hTXVdfZA/WR4AGIWCN3I/AAAAAAAAj6o/BW7FQ9Afn98N7wzbfoN5JlhkrJZtkOgQgCLcB/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_lendingfinace.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to homebuyers was relatively steady in the lead-up to APRA's latest round of macroprudential curbs, while nationally there was a moderate increase in lending to property investors (classified below under commercial lending).</p>
<p>It's generally reported that lending for real estate is unproductive and risky, while lending to business is productive and a good thing. This may be true to an extent, though there are many sub-trends to take into account.</p>
<p>Overall commercial lending saw a neat increase in the month of March to be solidly higher year-on-year, even if the recent trend series is flat.</p>
<p>Renovations rose to a 6.5 year high in March 2017, as Aussies apparently shunned stamp duties and trading up for staying put and renovating instead, though looking at the numbers in their historical context the 'renovation boom' story seems a bit less enticing.</p>
<p>Splitting out commercial finance fixed loans by industry shows how lending into the mining sector has all but evaporated, declining by a further 46 per cent over the year to March. Commercial lending to the mining industry has fallen to about a quarter of the level seen at the peak as the resources construction cliff now approaches its nadir.</p>
<p>Despite this massive contraction, annual lending for construction continues to expand at a sprightly double digit pace, a trend which belies Australia's over-reliance on the residential building sector.</p>
<p><strong>Investor loans diverge</strong></p>
<p>Carving up loans to property investors by state, it's clear that Sydney investors don't believe in the apartment oversupply and have been doubling down on harbour city real estate with a vengeance.</p>
<p>Lending for investment in New South Wales surged to $6.2 billion in March - 39 per cent higher than for the same month last year - signalling a huge rebound since APRA's first round of macroprudential restrictions.</p>
<p>There was also something of an increase in investor lending in Victoria which will warrant careful observation.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FvHnxzfoySg/WR4AGTk0z8I/AAAAAAAAj6s/fAgDQzINy_seIhISKqHG962BVPuXvel_ACLcB/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_investorloansbystate.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The massive divergence in fortunes across the states in the prevailing low interest rate environment is ultimately what led to APRA's new powers to target lending in specific neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>While Sydney property has been burning up, property investor loan volumes in the Northern Territory have collapsed to their lowest level in 11 years as prices and rents in Darwin continue to fall.</p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it was a stronger month for lending finance in aggregate, with a sizeable lift in commercial finance.</p>
<p>The housing market figures pre-date APRA's announcement at the end of the month of March that new restraints would be applied to interest-only lending.</p>
<p>What the figures do show is the massive divergence in investor sentiment between the resources states and Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.</p>
<p>If this continues APRA may be called upon to use its new powers sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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APRA may deploy its 'special powers': Pete Wargent

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<p>I've written a lot here about Queensland's record apartment construction boom, which is now rebalancing. See <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/spirit-in-sky" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/filling-up" target="_blank">here</a>, for example. </p>
<p>The number of attached dwellings constructed through this cycle will exceed even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s. </p>
<p>The number of detached house starts is now rising steadily, but for attached dwellings new commencements are falling fast, especially for the higher-density projects.</p>
<p>And the official numbers are six to nine months old.  </p>
<p>A quick drive around central Brisbane reveals that many projects have been stalled or mothballed, and staged releases pushed out. </p>
<p>Developers simply can't shift many of them, with unusually 'flexible' terms being offered to prospective buyers in some cases. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1356"></a></p>
<p>Below annual dwelling starts for the state are mapped against the estimated change in the resident population. </p>
<p>I deliberately haven't messed around with the axes on the chart as some are inclined to do.</p>
<p>After all, this cycle has been characterised by record volumes of high-rise apartments, which might house fewer persons per unit on average previously (while there is arguably the issue of Chinese investors and vacant apartments to account for). </p>
<p>The numbers show total dwelling starts falling fast in 2017, as they needed to. </p>
<p>Queensland's net overseas immigration and therefore population growth pulled back hard after the peak of resources construction, leading to a dwelling stock overhang, in a similar vein to Western Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
<p>Fortunately for local developers, Queensland has become the state with the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/where-why-population-growth-is" target="_blank">greatest internal population flows in the country</a>, which is helping to stabilise the ship.</p>
<p>They'll be looking to offload their final apartments quick-sharp and put the shutters up for the remainder of this cycle. </p>
<p>As ever, lots of variations are apparent when drilling down to the regional and suburb level. </p>
<p><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></p>
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Queensland's internal population flows stabilising the CBD apartment ship: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/housing-finance-at-6-month-high"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing finance to slow</span></strong></p>
<div id="post-body-3782979424120573100" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The Housing Finance figures were released for February 2018 this week, reported as "Housing finance falls in February" (Australian), "Falls felt for February" (Rate City), and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interesting interpretations, given that housing finance was...well, up!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, having allowed a few days to elapse, here are four thoughts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Loan sizes up</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>One less well reported thing that I picked up was the rise in the average loan size over the past year to non-first homebuyers. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s1600/A.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s640/A.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1380"></a></div>
<br><div>Across the states, Victoria has been the main driver of rising average loan sizes, although each of the most populous states has seen an increase over the year. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div>As a result, owner-occupier commitments rose +1.3 per cent in February, and investor loans were up +0.5 per cent, taking total housing finance to a 6-month high of $33.52 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling the trendlines through the data shows that total housing finance has essentially been flat for 15 months now, while a fair chunk of refinancing has been in evidence within that total.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - First homebuyer incentives bite</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another notable trend was that first homebuyer loans were up by a third from a year earlier, driven by New South Wales, where the number of first homebuyers doubled from February 2017.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Homebuyer commitments for new dwellings rose by +6.6 per cent from a month earlier, but are now in a trend decline from 4-decade highs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1350"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Prevalence of non-banks</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, the trend result for non-bank lending declined in the month, and remains at only around half the peak levels of a decade ago, but will nevertheless remain a key point of interest as lending standards come into focus. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HIFtpR1pkCw/WtGJHYBPHsI/AAAAAAAApZ8/spmSAsGYg9ME6AkJBC5Jjs_eRtOZTkWHgCEwYBhgL/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HIFtpR1pkCw/WtGJHYBPHsI/AAAAAAAApZ8/spmSAsGYg9ME6AkJBC5Jjs_eRtOZTkWHgCEwYBhgL/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1340"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Royal Commission to slow lending</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall housing finance beat expectations despite a small decline in the actual number of home loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in its Financial Stability Review that an average of $120 billion of interest-only loans per annum are <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">due</span> </strong>for conversion between now and 2021.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing unknown there, though some people misread that as $480 billion of loans that <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">will</span></strong> convert to principal repayments, which isn't going to happen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere, Moody's reported 30+ day delinquencies at 1.45 per cent, down from 1.52 per cent a year earlier, despite some trouble spots including Gladstone, central Queensland, some suburbs of Perth, and other parts of Western Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A final point, and a key outcome to watch over the days and weeks ahead is the impact of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems that borrowers will now be required to be provide statements on all debts, a loophole closure which appears likely to be a wise move. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there could be some overreach in terms of brokers needing to audit bank statements to support declared living expenses broken down by category, the aim being to reduce the typical reliance on benchmarks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are many problem with this, not least that borrowers tend to have multiple bank accounts and credit cards these days with different banks.<br><br>Certainly private banking clients and affluent borrowers have never been subjected to such scrutiny, which may lead to some interesting discussions! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that loans are already being assessed at mortgage rates way in excess of the rate actually being paid, it seems like overkill.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If implemented forcefully this will slow the mortgage market and reduce transaction volumes as brokers and borrowers get to grips with the new requirements.<br><br>Mortgage brokers would presumably also need to consider switching to a fee-for-service model to compensate for the exponential increase in paperwork and compliance.<br><br>Regulators in the UK went through their own mortgage market review (MMR) in 2014 which ultimately lowered the risk of borrowers over-stretching and made the industry more professional.<br><br>The MMR also temporarily gummed up the lending market, so we'll have to see what plays out Down Under. </div>
</div>
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Royal Commission to slow property lending: Pete Wargent

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<div>SQM Research reported its always-excellent vacancy rates index today for the month of May 2018, with vacancy rates nationally at 2.1 per cent, down marginally from 2.3 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And the figures showed a fifth consecutive decline for vacancies in Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane's city-wide vacancy rate was down to 2.9 per cent, from 3.5 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This accords well with what we've been seeing on the ground in Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, family-appropriate dwelling stock is now often renting at the first open home, with numerous instances of multiple offers and rentals achieving above the asking price. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are still some notable pockets of pain, of course, most evidently in the inner-city high rise 'investor stock', where rental guarantees mask what is often optimistically pitched product.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are also more high-rise units in the post for the CBD, with the SkyTower construction now well underway. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally speaking and across the city, however, the rental market is rebalancing as construction slows, thanks to positive interstate migration and somewhat pacier net overseas migration, and is in better nick than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Plotted below are the vacancy rate figures by capital city smoothed on a 6mMA basis (not seasonally adjusted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see, while Brisbane has now turned a corner, Sydney is now experiencing a high rate of unit completions with considerably more new apartment stock choice for renters. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's vacancy rate of 2.5 per cent was well up from 1.7 per cent in May 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R1Whw2TAGEA/Wyh6EPlQOqI/AAAAAAAAqpM/hLFxcsPFy80keuHyZQR13T_y6O6xMJCrgCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1410"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Elsewhere, Perth is grinding its way back from its punishing rental market nadir (please don't email about terminology: if you don't like it substitute with an antonym; it's really not that difficult!), while Hobart remains a tight rental market despite a slight loosening year-on-year.<br><br>It will be interesting to see at what point rising prices in Hobart spark a significant supply response, in what is a relatively small city, though some developers are reluctant to stray from the mainland due to the additional logistical challenges. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne's vacancy rate was the same as it was a year earlier at just 1.4 per cent, despite hectic rates of dwelling construction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Adelaide rental market has generally been tightening for some time now.<br><br>And finally, Canberra's rental vacancies have plummeted since the experiment with housing taxation, and it remains to be seen when a new rental market equilibrium is reached. </div>
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Brisbane rental guarantees mask optimistically pitched apartment product: Pete Wargent

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<div>And that, sadly, is that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's auto production industry is no more. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) monthly figures recorded the production of one solitary vehicle in November. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as 2013 it was common to see 15,000-20,000 vehicles per month rolling off production lines.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the persistently strong Aussie dollar and high cost of manufacturing in Australia ultimately proved to be an obstacle too far.  </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1326"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Department of Employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/the-car-in-front-is-import" target="_blank">projected</a> that the factory closures at Elizabeth in Adelaide (Holden) and Altona in Melbourne (Toyota) could cost 27,500 jobs over the years ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many in the industry have been employed for more than two decades.<br><br>And consider how the world has changed since that time - there was no LinkedIn of Facebook back then, for example, and job applications were submitted on paper.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the full impact on supply chains is as yet unknown, and despite some better industry readings of late, the manufacturing industry remains in a structural decline, with total employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/a-thousand-new-jobs-per-day" target="_blank">falling again in 2017</a>. </div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>I took a look at <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/growth-hacking" target="_blank">here</a> at where future growth will come from instead.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></span></div>
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Growth after Australia's auto production industry is no more: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-2358659028075496425" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>As usual vacancy rates were higher in the month of December at 2.5 per cent or 80,092 vacancies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the record high level of building, vacancies were considerably lower than a year earlier, when there were 89,721 vacancies according to SQM Research figures.<br><br>The year-on-year decrease reflects a combination of strong population growth and a very high volume of higher-density apartments still under construction, there being a lag in the completion of this dwelling type. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart has a record low vacancy rate for any capital city of an extremely tight 0.3 per cent, while Canberra (1.3 per cent) and Adelaide (1.5 per cent) remain tight rental markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Asking rents have increased strongly in Hobart and Canberra accordingly over 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth and Darwin also seem to have turned a corner, with vacancy rates well down from a year earlier, while Melbourne's 2.1 per cent vacancy rate was also well down from 2.4 per cent in December 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This downtrend wasn't the case everywhere however, with Sydney recording a multi-year high reading of 2.6 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers can jag around a bit, but smoothing the figures on a 6mMA basis gives a sense of the relative condition of the rental market in each city and the prevailing trends. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1385"></a></div>
<br><div>At the end of the 2017 financial year, New South Wales had a record 64,470 attached dwellings under construction, with the overdue flood of completions doubtless accounting for the jump in December. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth in Sydney nevertheless remains strong, so it will be interesting to see how the market fares in 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On that note, the latest building activity figures are due out today, and these will shed further light on completions and the pipeline remaining under construction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s1600/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s640/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> <span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
</div>
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Rental vacancies down in 2017; but not everywhere: Pete Wargent

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<div>One of the easier trades you'll ever come across, with inflation missing market expectations yet gain.<br><br>Money for jam, here.<br><br>Rate hikes never were on the cards any time soon - as well documented here often enough - but that's even more obvious now with inflation missing (yet again!).<br><br>
</div>
<div>Both of the core measures came in at just +0.4 per cent for the December quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While underlying inflation rate ticked up to +1.9 per cent, the 6-month annualised pace is incredibly weak at just +1.6 per cent.<br><br>Inflation has now missed the 2-3 per cent target on the downside for 9 consecutive quarters, and the pulse looks to have weakened again. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XlzLIPRQpu4/WnEZzIZqnVI/AAAAAAAAoJU/rzj9H0OJ5NUP_8uwQveXyc47vGd8NtzuQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1359"></div>
<p><br>Tradables prices picked up a bit in the December quarter, but were negative over the year.<br><br></p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Kxw_kvG6T8g/WnEZzNT9e7I/AAAAAAAAoJQ/v0T7c3gZZmc6pjln-mpGi6LhcMFX1ryUACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The headline result of +0.6 per cent for the quarter and +1.9 per cent for the year was pumped by a jump in fuel and fruit prices (someone needs to look up whether avocados and capsicums are fruits or vegetables, I have no idea). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, though, this was once again very weak underlying inflation, though importantly the result was not under the Reserve Bank's forecast for the end of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that basically means that interest rates will be left on hold for a record length of time, barring a shock of some kind.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents off the mat</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents began to rise moderately again in 2017, mainly thanks to Sydney (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents were negative in the December quarter in Brisbane, while in Perth rents are some 16 per cent below their peak. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J1Hs5n8pTqQ/WnEZzEsmQuI/AAAAAAAAoJY/eC-Oyr-Y9sAcEVWZFcCAcaZ0rol-BOElQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><br>Sydney rents (+52 per cent) have doubled the of inflation (+27 per cent) over the past decade.</p>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h8w2l0xyyCI/WnEZzng4KmI/AAAAAAAAoJc/fbvJr9MBycYnJXjOM2wyCEImtv1Gv0T_QCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1411"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's models already seemed to suggest that underlying inflation wouldn't get back to the mid-point of the target range at 2.5 per cent for years to come (possibly about 4 years!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now this result has missed market expectations too, for the fifth consecutive quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main takeaway is all the talk of imminent rate hikes was little more than wishful thinking.<br><br>Indeed, given the Reserve Bank's stated mandate, logically either the next move in rates should be down or the economy should returning to full employment.<br><br>Either way, there was little to fear in these numbers for mortgagees and housing market fanatics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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Talk of imminent rate hikes was little more than wishful thinking: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available ABS figures show Australian capital city house and apartment prices 1.4 per cent below their December 2017 peak, albeit they've actually increased in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide, and Hobart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ya6Qb4aMVDo/W7zbQNm3zeI/AAAAAAAAsTE/y8JxatkGg3w13NZvQs7m5BCv0gMbGAgKQCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1394"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>One market - Sydney - did experience a wild buying frenzy in the first quarter of 2017, forcing some (required) action from the regulator, since which time house prices have declined by 4 per cent and apartment prices 3 per cent on the ABS index, with further declines set to follow in H2 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was an agog observer at some of those Q1 2017 Sydney auctions, and concluded at the time that the successful frenzied bidders could only be cash buyers or downsizers, as there's no way the bank vals could've passed otherwise. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2ntZXNGLaWs/W7zbQJSQIGI/AAAAAAAAsTI/BZ1aa3jjXJMq3wxKbudU9W-oJmswhO2vwCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1459"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Very few leveraged buyers would've bought in that narrow window before the froth was blown off, then, but if there's a cohort that will feel the pain of the market responding the tighter lending standards signal it's off-the-plan buyers of new CBD apartments. </div>
<div>
<br>Although not overly familiar with Western Sydney I also witnessed some wild prices being paid for weatherboard renovators and fibro shacks, although all that seems to have calmed down now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Australian housing off the peaks: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the high rates of apartment construction, strong population growth continues to absorb the rental stock.<br><br>The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year from 75,733 to 72,748, according to the latest figures from SQM Research.<br><br>This represents a decline from in the national vacancy rate from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent - while construction is now set to slow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SQM reported that Brisbane continues to experience a sustained 2018 decline in vacancy rates from 3.6 per cent in December to 2.9 per cent by July.<br><br>And this will likely continue as apartment construction falls away and migration from interstate picks up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth is also now through the worst with vacancy rates trending down (from 5.2 per cent to 4 per cent over the past year) and the oversupply of rentals easing a bit, after several years of rental price declines.<br><br>Meanwhile Adelaide tightened again into just 1.3 per cent - getting pretty tight down there now! - and Canberra...well, Canberra is heading for zero at this rate.<br><br><strong>Sydney indigestion</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney number of vacancies was down from 19,572 to 19,114 in the month - a tight rental market would be represented by more like 12,000 vacancies or fewer - but year-on-year the vacancy rate is considerably higher at 2.8 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-imagetype="External"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney tends to be a much busier place in summer these days, so this trend will be one to watch with interest.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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