<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Huh, so much for the predicted 'disorderly rush for the exits'.</p>
<p>4.5 years of rising property prices later listing volumes and turnover rates have sunk to their lowest levels on record, as a percentage of total property stock. </p>
<p>Having executed its IPO, McGrath (ASX:MEA) provided the below chart as part of its Presentation to the 2016 Annual General Meeting.</p>
<div id="post-body-3609892557233707334" class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="/images/2016/11/25/MEA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/25/MEA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: ASX: MEA</em></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">McGrath's diagnosis left little doubt as to the reason for this, being excessively high stamp duty costs.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's a point I've visited here often before. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Stamp duty bands were designed with far, far lower dwelling prices in mind.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">By consistently refusing to raise stamp duty and land transfer brackets authorities are effectively loading more and more up front tax on to property purchases (in addition to other taxes, such as rates and land taxes).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">By effectively raising the stamp duty from a bit over 1 percent of the purchase price three decades ago to around 4 percent, the tax has gone from being a consequence or by-product of the transaction to an actual barrier. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">No doubt the stamp duty windfall has been great for state governments and their overflowing coffers, particularly in New South Wales which has raised $8.6 billion in the last year alone and where we have net debt of less than zero for the first time ever. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately, the high transactional cost of moving is predictably leading to 'asset lock in' and indirectly impacting labour force mobility.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Meanwhile investors remain wedded to their buy-and-hold strategies since if they choose to sell they get hit with capital gains tax (not that this stops unthinking 'think tanks' from campaigning for higher CGT). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As for non-residents, presumably some of them must sell but I've rarely come across it, probably because they purchase expensive new property and it can take years to break even on that type of stock with its inherent price premium (particularly now with the new levies on foreign buyers loaded on top of stamp duties, plus land taxes). </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Asset lock in</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly capital city owners of houses now hold on to their houses for 10.7 years on average, way up from 6.7 years in 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owners of apartments now hold for 9 years, well up from 5.9 years in 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The negative feedback look has become self-fulfilling, with so little stock available prospective capital city vendors are hesitant to list for fear of becoming locked out of rising markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due to low listing volumes, McGrath implied that we can expect to see low transaction volumes in FY17. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Listings lowest on record says McGrath: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p><strong>Expert Observer</strong></p>
<p>It was announced in the 2017 Budget speech that the regulator APRA will explicitly be allowed to differentiate loan controls by location.</p>
<p>This is another move signalling that politicians and regulators don't trust banks to lend responsibly, while simultaneously inferring that they know better than the market what 'should' be happening in terms of property markets and lending activity (which may be a positive thing or a very worrying development depending on your outlook!).</p>
<p>Practically speaking this means that APRA might look to restrict the flow of credit into 'hot' housing markets - basically, Sydney - while presumably steering clear of intervention in markets where prices and rents are in a multi-year freefall (such as Darwin, Gladstone, or indeed any number of of Australia's resources regions).</p>
<p>This all sounds jolly good on paper, until you think about all of the potential ramifications of regulatory intervention. There isn't the space here to go into detail on this point, but it's a concern!</p>
<p><strong>Lending finance rebounds</strong></p>
<p>The March 2017 Lending Finance figures, which strangely never seem to get any media coverage, saw total lending jump tidily from $67.6 billion to $72.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2f6hTXVdfZA/WR4AGIWCN3I/AAAAAAAAj6o/BW7FQ9Afn98N7wzbfoN5JlhkrJZtkOgQgCLcB/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_lendingfinace.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to homebuyers was relatively steady in the lead-up to APRA's latest round of macroprudential curbs, while nationally there was a moderate increase in lending to property investors (classified below under commercial lending).</p>
<p>It's generally reported that lending for real estate is unproductive and risky, while lending to business is productive and a good thing. This may be true to an extent, though there are many sub-trends to take into account.</p>
<p>Overall commercial lending saw a neat increase in the month of March to be solidly higher year-on-year, even if the recent trend series is flat.</p>
<p>Renovations rose to a 6.5 year high in March 2017, as Aussies apparently shunned stamp duties and trading up for staying put and renovating instead, though looking at the numbers in their historical context the 'renovation boom' story seems a bit less enticing.</p>
<p>Splitting out commercial finance fixed loans by industry shows how lending into the mining sector has all but evaporated, declining by a further 46 per cent over the year to March. Commercial lending to the mining industry has fallen to about a quarter of the level seen at the peak as the resources construction cliff now approaches its nadir.</p>
<p>Despite this massive contraction, annual lending for construction continues to expand at a sprightly double digit pace, a trend which belies Australia's over-reliance on the residential building sector.</p>
<p><strong>Investor loans diverge</strong></p>
<p>Carving up loans to property investors by state, it's clear that Sydney investors don't believe in the apartment oversupply and have been doubling down on harbour city real estate with a vengeance.</p>
<p>Lending for investment in New South Wales surged to $6.2 billion in March - 39 per cent higher than for the same month last year - signalling a huge rebound since APRA's first round of macroprudential restrictions.</p>
<p>There was also something of an increase in investor lending in Victoria which will warrant careful observation.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FvHnxzfoySg/WR4AGTk0z8I/AAAAAAAAj6s/fAgDQzINy_seIhISKqHG962BVPuXvel_ACLcB/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_investorloansbystate.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The massive divergence in fortunes across the states in the prevailing low interest rate environment is ultimately what led to APRA's new powers to target lending in specific neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>While Sydney property has been burning up, property investor loan volumes in the Northern Territory have collapsed to their lowest level in 11 years as prices and rents in Darwin continue to fall.</p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it was a stronger month for lending finance in aggregate, with a sizeable lift in commercial finance.</p>
<p>The housing market figures pre-date APRA's announcement at the end of the month of March that new restraints would be applied to interest-only lending.</p>
<p>What the figures do show is the massive divergence in investor sentiment between the resources states and Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.</p>
<p>If this continues APRA may be called upon to use its new powers sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

APRA may deploy its 'special powers': Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>I've written a lot here about Queensland's record apartment construction boom, which is now rebalancing. See <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/spirit-in-sky" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/filling-up" target="_blank">here</a>, for example. </p>
<p>The number of attached dwellings constructed through this cycle will exceed even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s. </p>
<p>The number of detached house starts is now rising steadily, but for attached dwellings new commencements are falling fast, especially for the higher-density projects.</p>
<p>And the official numbers are six to nine months old.  </p>
<p>A quick drive around central Brisbane reveals that many projects have been stalled or mothballed, and staged releases pushed out. </p>
<p>Developers simply can't shift many of them, with unusually 'flexible' terms being offered to prospective buyers in some cases. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1356"></a></p>
<p>Below annual dwelling starts for the state are mapped against the estimated change in the resident population. </p>
<p>I deliberately haven't messed around with the axes on the chart as some are inclined to do.</p>
<p>After all, this cycle has been characterised by record volumes of high-rise apartments, which might house fewer persons per unit on average previously (while there is arguably the issue of Chinese investors and vacant apartments to account for). </p>
<p>The numbers show total dwelling starts falling fast in 2017, as they needed to. </p>
<p>Queensland's net overseas immigration and therefore population growth pulled back hard after the peak of resources construction, leading to a dwelling stock overhang, in a similar vein to Western Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
<p>Fortunately for local developers, Queensland has become the state with the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/where-why-population-growth-is" target="_blank">greatest internal population flows in the country</a>, which is helping to stabilise the ship.</p>
<p>They'll be looking to offload their final apartments quick-sharp and put the shutters up for the remainder of this cycle. </p>
<p>As ever, lots of variations are apparent when drilling down to the regional and suburb level. </p>
<p><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></p>
</body></html>

Queensland's internal population flows stabilising the CBD apartment ship: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/housing-finance-at-6-month-high"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing finance to slow</span></strong></p>
<div id="post-body-3782979424120573100" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The Housing Finance figures were released for February 2018 this week, reported as "Housing finance falls in February" (Australian), "Falls felt for February" (Rate City), and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interesting interpretations, given that housing finance was...well, up!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, having allowed a few days to elapse, here are four thoughts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Loan sizes up</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>One less well reported thing that I picked up was the rise in the average loan size over the past year to non-first homebuyers. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s1600/A.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s640/A.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1380"></a></div>
<br><div>Across the states, Victoria has been the main driver of rising average loan sizes, although each of the most populous states has seen an increase over the year. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div>As a result, owner-occupier commitments rose +1.3 per cent in February, and investor loans were up +0.5 per cent, taking total housing finance to a 6-month high of $33.52 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling the trendlines through the data shows that total housing finance has essentially been flat for 15 months now, while a fair chunk of refinancing has been in evidence within that total.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - First homebuyer incentives bite</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another notable trend was that first homebuyer loans were up by a third from a year earlier, driven by New South Wales, where the number of first homebuyers doubled from February 2017.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Homebuyer commitments for new dwellings rose by +6.6 per cent from a month earlier, but are now in a trend decline from 4-decade highs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1350"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Prevalence of non-banks</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, the trend result for non-bank lending declined in the month, and remains at only around half the peak levels of a decade ago, but will nevertheless remain a key point of interest as lending standards come into focus. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HIFtpR1pkCw/WtGJHYBPHsI/AAAAAAAApZ8/spmSAsGYg9ME6AkJBC5Jjs_eRtOZTkWHgCEwYBhgL/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HIFtpR1pkCw/WtGJHYBPHsI/AAAAAAAApZ8/spmSAsGYg9ME6AkJBC5Jjs_eRtOZTkWHgCEwYBhgL/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1340"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Royal Commission to slow lending</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall housing finance beat expectations despite a small decline in the actual number of home loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in its Financial Stability Review that an average of $120 billion of interest-only loans per annum are <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">due</span> </strong>for conversion between now and 2021.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing unknown there, though some people misread that as $480 billion of loans that <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">will</span></strong> convert to principal repayments, which isn't going to happen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere, Moody's reported 30+ day delinquencies at 1.45 per cent, down from 1.52 per cent a year earlier, despite some trouble spots including Gladstone, central Queensland, some suburbs of Perth, and other parts of Western Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A final point, and a key outcome to watch over the days and weeks ahead is the impact of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems that borrowers will now be required to be provide statements on all debts, a loophole closure which appears likely to be a wise move. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there could be some overreach in terms of brokers needing to audit bank statements to support declared living expenses broken down by category, the aim being to reduce the typical reliance on benchmarks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are many problem with this, not least that borrowers tend to have multiple bank accounts and credit cards these days with different banks.<br><br>Certainly private banking clients and affluent borrowers have never been subjected to such scrutiny, which may lead to some interesting discussions! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that loans are already being assessed at mortgage rates way in excess of the rate actually being paid, it seems like overkill.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If implemented forcefully this will slow the mortgage market and reduce transaction volumes as brokers and borrowers get to grips with the new requirements.<br><br>Mortgage brokers would presumably also need to consider switching to a fee-for-service model to compensate for the exponential increase in paperwork and compliance.<br><br>Regulators in the UK went through their own mortgage market review (MMR) in 2014 which ultimately lowered the risk of borrowers over-stretching and made the industry more professional.<br><br>The MMR also temporarily gummed up the lending market, so we'll have to see what plays out Down Under. </div>
</div>
</body></html>

Royal Commission to slow property lending: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>SQM Research reported its always-excellent vacancy rates index today for the month of May 2018, with vacancy rates nationally at 2.1 per cent, down marginally from 2.3 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And the figures showed a fifth consecutive decline for vacancies in Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane's city-wide vacancy rate was down to 2.9 per cent, from 3.5 per cent a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This accords well with what we've been seeing on the ground in Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, family-appropriate dwelling stock is now often renting at the first open home, with numerous instances of multiple offers and rentals achieving above the asking price. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are still some notable pockets of pain, of course, most evidently in the inner-city high rise 'investor stock', where rental guarantees mask what is often optimistically pitched product.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are also more high-rise units in the post for the CBD, with the SkyTower construction now well underway. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally speaking and across the city, however, the rental market is rebalancing as construction slows, thanks to positive interstate migration and somewhat pacier net overseas migration, and is in better nick than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Plotted below are the vacancy rate figures by capital city smoothed on a 6mMA basis (not seasonally adjusted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see, while Brisbane has now turned a corner, Sydney is now experiencing a high rate of unit completions with considerably more new apartment stock choice for renters. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's vacancy rate of 2.5 per cent was well up from 1.7 per cent in May 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-R1Whw2TAGEA/Wyh6EPlQOqI/AAAAAAAAqpM/hLFxcsPFy80keuHyZQR13T_y6O6xMJCrgCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1410"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Elsewhere, Perth is grinding its way back from its punishing rental market nadir (please don't email about terminology: if you don't like it substitute with an antonym; it's really not that difficult!), while Hobart remains a tight rental market despite a slight loosening year-on-year.<br><br>It will be interesting to see at what point rising prices in Hobart spark a significant supply response, in what is a relatively small city, though some developers are reluctant to stray from the mainland due to the additional logistical challenges. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne's vacancy rate was the same as it was a year earlier at just 1.4 per cent, despite hectic rates of dwelling construction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Adelaide rental market has generally been tightening for some time now.<br><br>And finally, Canberra's rental vacancies have plummeted since the experiment with housing taxation, and it remains to be seen when a new rental market equilibrium is reached. </div>
</body></html>

Brisbane rental guarantees mask optimistically pitched apartment product: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>And that, sadly, is that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's auto production industry is no more. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) monthly figures recorded the production of one solitary vehicle in November. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as 2013 it was common to see 15,000-20,000 vehicles per month rolling off production lines.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the persistently strong Aussie dollar and high cost of manufacturing in Australia ultimately proved to be an obstacle too far.  </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1326"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Department of Employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/the-car-in-front-is-import" target="_blank">projected</a> that the factory closures at Elizabeth in Adelaide (Holden) and Altona in Melbourne (Toyota) could cost 27,500 jobs over the years ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many in the industry have been employed for more than two decades.<br><br>And consider how the world has changed since that time - there was no LinkedIn of Facebook back then, for example, and job applications were submitted on paper.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the full impact on supply chains is as yet unknown, and despite some better industry readings of late, the manufacturing industry remains in a structural decline, with total employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/a-thousand-new-jobs-per-day" target="_blank">falling again in 2017</a>. </div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>I took a look at <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/growth-hacking" target="_blank">here</a> at where future growth will come from instead.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></span></div>
</body></html>

Growth after Australia's auto production industry is no more: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-2358659028075496425" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>As usual vacancy rates were higher in the month of December at 2.5 per cent or 80,092 vacancies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the record high level of building, vacancies were considerably lower than a year earlier, when there were 89,721 vacancies according to SQM Research figures.<br><br>The year-on-year decrease reflects a combination of strong population growth and a very high volume of higher-density apartments still under construction, there being a lag in the completion of this dwelling type. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart has a record low vacancy rate for any capital city of an extremely tight 0.3 per cent, while Canberra (1.3 per cent) and Adelaide (1.5 per cent) remain tight rental markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Asking rents have increased strongly in Hobart and Canberra accordingly over 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth and Darwin also seem to have turned a corner, with vacancy rates well down from a year earlier, while Melbourne's 2.1 per cent vacancy rate was also well down from 2.4 per cent in December 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This downtrend wasn't the case everywhere however, with Sydney recording a multi-year high reading of 2.6 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers can jag around a bit, but smoothing the figures on a 6mMA basis gives a sense of the relative condition of the rental market in each city and the prevailing trends. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1385"></a></div>
<br><div>At the end of the 2017 financial year, New South Wales had a record 64,470 attached dwellings under construction, with the overdue flood of completions doubtless accounting for the jump in December. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth in Sydney nevertheless remains strong, so it will be interesting to see how the market fares in 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On that note, the latest building activity figures are due out today, and these will shed further light on completions and the pipeline remaining under construction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s1600/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s640/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> <span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
</div>
</body></html>

Rental vacancies down in 2017; but not everywhere: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>One of the easier trades you'll ever come across, with inflation missing market expectations yet gain.<br><br>Money for jam, here.<br><br>Rate hikes never were on the cards any time soon - as well documented here often enough - but that's even more obvious now with inflation missing (yet again!).<br><br>
</div>
<div>Both of the core measures came in at just +0.4 per cent for the December quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While underlying inflation rate ticked up to +1.9 per cent, the 6-month annualised pace is incredibly weak at just +1.6 per cent.<br><br>Inflation has now missed the 2-3 per cent target on the downside for 9 consecutive quarters, and the pulse looks to have weakened again. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XlzLIPRQpu4/WnEZzIZqnVI/AAAAAAAAoJU/rzj9H0OJ5NUP_8uwQveXyc47vGd8NtzuQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1359"></div>
<p><br>Tradables prices picked up a bit in the December quarter, but were negative over the year.<br><br></p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Kxw_kvG6T8g/WnEZzNT9e7I/AAAAAAAAoJQ/v0T7c3gZZmc6pjln-mpGi6LhcMFX1ryUACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The headline result of +0.6 per cent for the quarter and +1.9 per cent for the year was pumped by a jump in fuel and fruit prices (someone needs to look up whether avocados and capsicums are fruits or vegetables, I have no idea). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, though, this was once again very weak underlying inflation, though importantly the result was not under the Reserve Bank's forecast for the end of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that basically means that interest rates will be left on hold for a record length of time, barring a shock of some kind.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents off the mat</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents began to rise moderately again in 2017, mainly thanks to Sydney (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents were negative in the December quarter in Brisbane, while in Perth rents are some 16 per cent below their peak. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J1Hs5n8pTqQ/WnEZzEsmQuI/AAAAAAAAoJY/eC-Oyr-Y9sAcEVWZFcCAcaZ0rol-BOElQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><br>Sydney rents (+52 per cent) have doubled the of inflation (+27 per cent) over the past decade.</p>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h8w2l0xyyCI/WnEZzng4KmI/AAAAAAAAoJc/fbvJr9MBycYnJXjOM2wyCEImtv1Gv0T_QCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1411"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's models already seemed to suggest that underlying inflation wouldn't get back to the mid-point of the target range at 2.5 per cent for years to come (possibly about 4 years!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now this result has missed market expectations too, for the fifth consecutive quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main takeaway is all the talk of imminent rate hikes was little more than wishful thinking.<br><br>Indeed, given the Reserve Bank's stated mandate, logically either the next move in rates should be down or the economy should returning to full employment.<br><br>Either way, there was little to fear in these numbers for mortgagees and housing market fanatics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
</body></html>

Talk of imminent rate hikes was little more than wishful thinking: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available ABS figures show Australian capital city house and apartment prices 1.4 per cent below their December 2017 peak, albeit they've actually increased in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide, and Hobart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ya6Qb4aMVDo/W7zbQNm3zeI/AAAAAAAAsTE/y8JxatkGg3w13NZvQs7m5BCv0gMbGAgKQCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1394"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>One market - Sydney - did experience a wild buying frenzy in the first quarter of 2017, forcing some (required) action from the regulator, since which time house prices have declined by 4 per cent and apartment prices 3 per cent on the ABS index, with further declines set to follow in H2 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was an agog observer at some of those Q1 2017 Sydney auctions, and concluded at the time that the successful frenzied bidders could only be cash buyers or downsizers, as there's no way the bank vals could've passed otherwise. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2ntZXNGLaWs/W7zbQJSQIGI/AAAAAAAAsTI/BZ1aa3jjXJMq3wxKbudU9W-oJmswhO2vwCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1459"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Very few leveraged buyers would've bought in that narrow window before the froth was blown off, then, but if there's a cohort that will feel the pain of the market responding the tighter lending standards signal it's off-the-plan buyers of new CBD apartments. </div>
<div>
<br>Although not overly familiar with Western Sydney I also witnessed some wild prices being paid for weatherboard renovators and fibro shacks, although all that seems to have calmed down now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</body></html>

Australian housing off the peaks: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the high rates of apartment construction, strong population growth continues to absorb the rental stock.<br><br>The total number of rental vacancies in Australia has declined over the past year from 75,733 to 72,748, according to the latest figures from SQM Research.<br><br>This represents a decline from in the national vacancy rate from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent - while construction is now set to slow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>SQM reported that Brisbane continues to experience a sustained 2018 decline in vacancy rates from 3.6 per cent in December to 2.9 per cent by July.<br><br>And this will likely continue as apartment construction falls away and migration from interstate picks up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth is also now through the worst with vacancy rates trending down (from 5.2 per cent to 4 per cent over the past year) and the oversupply of rentals easing a bit, after several years of rental price declines.<br><br>Meanwhile Adelaide tightened again into just 1.3 per cent - getting pretty tight down there now! - and Canberra...well, Canberra is heading for zero at this rate.<br><br><strong>Sydney indigestion</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney number of vacancies was down from 19,572 to 19,114 in the month - a tight rental market would be represented by more like 12,000 vacancies or fewer - but year-on-year the vacancy rate is considerably higher at 2.8 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vinzV9mTVWw/W3JPxfzJ6JI/AAAAAAAArhg/DkJn_IkncbcIwHZt9WN1eAAv5j9VV9UjwCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-imagetype="External"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney tends to be a much busier place in summer these days, so this trend will be one to watch with interest.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</body></html>

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News