<p>Sun Property Group (SPG) has taken a major step to reinforce its commitment to consumer trust by securing Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) from Resilience Insurance for its nearly completed Willoughby development on Sydney’s Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>The boutique project, Aurora, comprising 12 apartments and a ground-floor commercial space, is one of few in the region to adopt the forward-thinking insurance model—offering a point of difference in a competitive market.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">For Cameron Johnson, General Manager at Sun Property Group, the decision to adopt LDI was rooted in the company’s long-standing philosophy of maintaining a highly personalised relationship with its end users.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">“We’ve always taken ownership over our product,” Johnson said. “Introducing LDI is not just about peace of mind for the buyer—it’s about raising the internal bar. It becomes the baseline for how we do things going forward.”</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109919 project_image_fid=205006]</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">While hundreds of developers and builders have taken out an LDI policy from Resilience Insurance, the insurance is still relatively new to Australia. Johnson says he sees significant future potential with LDI nationwide, with both&nbsp;regulatory and market frameworks starting to evolve to support its wider use in class two buildings.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">“When we started the Willoughby project, LDI was still just a concept being floated by the Building Commissioner’s office," Johnson says.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="591">"Delays in the construction timeline gave us the unique opportunity to adopt it as the product became more available in late 2023."</p>

<p data-end="1804" data-start="1553">That timing aligned with a shift in construction contractors on the project, which opened the door for a more collaborative and considered implementation of the insurance. According to Johnson, Resilience Insurance was proactive and solution-oriented.</p>

<p data-end="1804" data-start="1553">“It wasn’t just about us buying a product off the shelf. It was a dialogue—how can we work together to deliver something that meets both of our needs?” he added.</p>

<p data-end="1804" data-start="1553">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109919 project_image_fid=5717]</p>

<p data-end="2270" data-start="1971">LDI covers major structural defects for up to 10 years post-completion and offers an alternative to the traditional developer bond held under the Department of Fair Trading’s scheme. SPG prudently factor in a two per cent cost profile for such measures into its feasibility, treating it as “business as usual.”</p>

<p data-end="2270" data-start="1971">“What LDI does is show the consumer that we’re front-ending our responsibilities—design, delivery, documentation, execution. That whole chain of custody is assessed and independently reviewed throughout construction. It’s a rubber stamp on quality,” Johnson said.</p>

<p data-end="2820" data-start="2539">In a region where no other nearby developments currently carry LDI, the move also creates a market differentiator. While some projects may carry an iCIRT rating, few offer the depth of protection and oversight that LDI provides, especially outside of publicly listed organisations.</p>

<p style="line-height:1.38; margin-top:16px; margin-bottom:16px">Aurora is being brought to market by Henry Burke of McGrath Projects. With the recent cut in interest rates Burke expects that many first home buyers and investors will jump at the chance to buy in Aurora due to its convenient location, fantastic retail amenity, picturesque parks with leafy walks, and excellent transport connections with only one stop to Sydney CBD. He expects a local owner-occupier to secure the standout penthouse which offers 175 sqm of internal space and further 200 sqm of outdoor space.</p>

<p data-end="2820" data-start="2539">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109919 project_image_fid=205010]</p>

<p data-end="2820" data-start="2539">Johnson says Aurora residents will not only benefit from the first right insurance policy, which means action is taken immediately rather than often long and complicated battles as developers and builders point fingers at each other as to who created the issue, but from how it can benefit the strata communities of the building.</p>

<p data-end="2820" data-start="2539">Many buyers, especially first-time apartment owners, have limited understanding of shared infrastructure or the responsibilities of Owners Corporations. LDI adds an important layer of education, structure, and protection.</p>

<p data-end="3105" data-start="2822">“People want to move in and enjoy what they’ve bought. But when things go wrong, that’s when emotions and stress levels rise. The insurance policy gives owners a clearer path to resolution—an assured, regulated compensation process. It also helps equip owners and managers with the knowledge they need to maintain the building properly.”</p>

<p style="line-height:1.38; margin-top:16px; margin-bottom:16px">The insurance includes tools such as service penetration matrices and access documentation—going far beyond standard build drawings. Johnson says it’s about delivering not just a home, but a sustainable, manageable asset.</p>

<p data-end="3699" data-start="3448">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109919 project_image_fid=343670]</p>

<p data-end="3850" data-start="3701">Sun Property Group continues to build on its strong track record across Sydney’s Lower North Shore, with an upcoming major development of its Bowen Street, Chatswood landholdings and additional projects underway in Melbourne. The team recently completed its debut Melbourne apartment project, The Brookville in Toorak, showcasing their commitment to delivering high-quality, design-led communities.</p>


In a region where no other nearby developments currently carry LDI, the move also creates a market differentiator

Joel Robinson

Sun Property Group approaches completion of Willoughby's first apartment development with 10-year Latent Defects Insurance

<p>Renowned developer-builder DASCO has unveiled its much-anticipated new development in the heart of Epping.</p>

<p>The architectural brief for Turner Studio was to “create a community where residents are completely immersed in a paradise for the senses.”</p>

<p>The result is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/senso-epping-242-244-beecroft-road-epping-nsw-2121">Senso</a>, a series of buildings that have been oriented around an unrepeatable 10,000 sqm-plus site to create a facility-laden, landscape-first precinct, something of which Epping and its surrounds have not seen before.</p>

<p>There are 479 apartments available in a variety of floorplans across the five buildings, a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments in addition to a curated penthouse collection.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134954 project_image_fid=4553]</p>

<p>The apartments have been designed to appeal to the owner-occupier market, with generous floorplans, premium materials, and optional upgrades including integrated refrigeration, bespoke joinery, and motorised blinds.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dasco-australia">DASCO</a>, who builds its own developments, is once again bringing peace of mind to its clients by taking the 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy offered by Resilience Insurance, which protects buyers against any structural or waterproofing issues for 10 years post completion of the building. This insurance can only be taken out by the builder or developer and not by individual apartment owners.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134954 project_image_fid=4552]</p>

<p>DASCO is known for creating more than just apartments — they create places where people connect. Senso will have over 4,000 sqm of resort-inspired communal amenity in the form of two rooftop pools, a celestial outdoor cinema, wellness club, sensory walk, and an observation deck, in addition to multiple BBQ and outdoor communal areas on multiple levels, intended to deliver a complete lifestyle offering within the residential environment.</p>

<p>There will be over 800 sqm of retail space on street level, which will likely be run as hospitality venues.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134954 project_image_fid=4396]</p>

<p>Located adjacent to the new Epping Town Centre masterplan, and just a five-minute walk from Epping Metro Station, Senso offers seamless access to Macquarie Park, Chatswood and the Sydney CBD. Families who are interested in the large two- and three-bedroom apartments are within proximity to several regarded educational institutions including Macquarie University, James Ruse Agricultural High, and Cheltenham Girls School.</p>

<p>The project also leverages Epping’s growing dining and retail precinct, proximity to Macquarie Centre, and access to natural assets including Terrys Creek walking trails and Boronia Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134954 project_image_fid=4399]</p>

<p>With a 33-year track record and over 7,000 dwellings delivered, DASCO continues to develop and build; a business model that enables integrated delivery and peace of mind, especially when Senso is backed by Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), providing 10 years of protection for buyers at no additional cost.</p>

<p>The launch of Senso Epping reinforces DASCO’s active pipeline of Sydney-based developments at a time when the market is increasingly focused on owner-occupier appeal, delivery confidence, and long-term quality.</p>

<p>DASCO is partnering on Senso Epping with leading Australian alternative asset management firm Metrics, which has more than $30 billion in assets under management.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134954]</p>


DASCO reveals Senso, Epping’s first resort-style apartment development

<p>Preliminary data by research giant Charter Keck Cramer reveals a 54 per cent decline in Build to Sell apartments across Australia's capital cities, while the Build to Rent boom continues with a 378 per cent increase over the last five years.</p>

<p>Charter Keck Cramer's upcoming National State of the Market Report - Key Metropolitan Areas, scheduled for release in September, will reveal&nbsp;a dramatic transformation in apartment supply patterns across Australia's capital cities between FY2016-2020 and FY2021-2025.</p>

<p>The Build to Sell (BTS) apartment sector has experienced a substantial contraction, with total supply falling by 54 per cent compared to the previous five-year period. The decline represents a reduction of <strong>149,200 apartments</strong> across all capital cities.</p>

<p><img alt="BTS Charter Keck Cramer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3db2ddf3-e7c0-481f-b8b9-63efb365cb80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.26.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bsQl8inhZA7FeiPamnGvw1tse0obBdSd" /></p>

<p>Sydney led the downturn with a decrease of 73,600 apartments, followed by Melbourne (-42,800) and Brisbane (-26,800). Perth and Adelaide also recorded significant declines of 6,400 and 2,400 apartments respectively. Only Gold Coast and Canberra bucked the trend, with modest increases of 500 and 2,300 apartments.</p>

<p>In stark contrast, the Build to Rent (BTR) sector has emerged as a major force in the apartment market, recording a remarkable 378% increase in supply. This growth added 8,590 apartments across the capital cities during FY2021-2025. Melbourne dominated BTR growth with 6,160 additional apartments, while Sydney contributed 2,100 units. Brisbane and Canberra also recorded growth of 800 and 330 apartments respectively. Gold Coast and Perth recorded minor declines, while Adelaide maintained steady levels.</p>

<p><img alt="BTR CKC" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ca13ffd4-ab93-4828-afd2-4c3dccbd2b51" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.28.54%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=SXNnpcJuFD36ViWOwF6izBBqcQc3NWao" /></p>

<p>“These preliminary findings indicate a fundamental shift in Australia's apartment development landscape, with traditional Build to Sell models giving way to institutional Build to Rent developments,” said Richard Temlett, Charter Keck Cramer’s National Executive Director of Research.</p>

<p>"This transition reflects changing investor preferences, regulatory environments and housing affordability challenges across major metropolitan areas.”</p>

<p>The complete Charter Keck Cramer National State of the Market Report – Key Metropolitan Areas will provide comprehensive analysis of these trends, their underlying drivers and implications for developers, investors and policymakers when released in September.</p>


Build to Sell apartment supply drops 54% in five years across Australian capital cities

<p>Verso Development Group is seeking to bring over 1,100 apartments to the heart of Brisbane's Toowong, with plans filed for a $1 billion, triple tower development known as Toowong Central.</p>

<p>The landmark urban regeneration project "aims to reshape the core of Brisbane’s inner-west riverside suburb."</p>

<p>Covering over 1.4-hectares across&nbsp;Sherwood Road, High Street, and Jephson Street, Toowong Central has been designed by KHA and will comprise three towers rising 49, 55, and 58 levels.</p>

<p><img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="48611e3d-7123-4b99-b2cb-bfa4bc98024f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenities.png?VersionId=yKBexB.BgCkq4OET8fHDkWs0d3DjxOKJ" /></p>

<p>According to the Urban Context Report prepared by Urbis, Toowong Central is positioned as a “city-defining precinct reclaiming Toowong as ‘the best destination in the west’,” with a vision to deliver density differently, strengthen Toowong’s identity, and lead subtropical urban design.</p>

<p>There will be a wide range of apartment configurations, from one-bedrooms to five-bedroom penthouses, as well as short-term accomodation offerings. The design prioritises pedestrian permeability, with an activated public realm featuring a central civic plaza, laneways, and street-level retail and dining.</p>

<p>“The central square’s structure, programming, scale and location creates a social anchor - shaped by its edges, flexible for use, and animated by a diversity of experiences throughout the day and into the evening,” the Urban Context Report noted, reinforcing the project's ambition to become a vibrant community destination.</p>

<p>Design excellence was pursued through an international design competition, attracting entries from renowned practices such as UNStudio and BIG. KHA’s winning design distinguished itself with a ceremonial approach to the public realm, integrating terraces, tiered seating, and green infrastructure to promote social interaction and resilience.</p>

<p>The development builds upon two existing approvals: the 25- and 20-storey towers of the Aviary Toowong proposal, and a separate 25- and 24-storey approval at 88 Jephson Street. Consolidation of these fragmented landholdings under a precinct-wide approach allows for increased community value and cohesive urban integration.</p>

<p>Urbis Director Nicholas Stevenson said Toowong Central will bridge the gap in Toowong's current experience, unlocking the potential of the wider precinct.</p>

<p>"Overcoming experiential constraints and leveraging contextual advantages – Toowong Central will redefine Brisbane's inner west.”</p>

<p><img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73f7a702-625d-452d-9df2-30a0863ac1e8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/master.png?VersionId=TZdh6wxGC_8IIroXpdkZfuhlS8mFZnea" /></p>

<p>Toowong Central’s ambition extends beyond residential and commercial outcomes. Uses under consideration include a world-class hotel, university facilities, a museum, and health and wellness services, reflecting its role as a western gateway to Brisbane’s growing innovation corridor between the CBD and the University of Queensland.</p>

<p>Urbis Managing Partner James Tuma said Brisbane has no greater opportunity to showcase the future of urban living than Toowong – a sustainable, economically vibrant, and people-centric place that embodies the best of Brisbane.</p>

<p>[The plans] gives us a glimpse into our future as a globally relevant, youthful, entrepreneurial, and distinctly subtropical city.”</p>


$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market

<p>In <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/runaway-bay-qld-4216">Runaway Bay</a>, new townhouse-scale waterfront residences are rare - but ones built to the standards found on Sovereign Island are almost unheard of.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/ocean-suites-on-jennifer-10-12-jennifer-avenue-runaway-bay-qld-4216">Ocean Suites on Jennifer</a>&nbsp;changes that, delivering a calibre of construction and detailing that places its seven villas well above the typical market offering in this northern Gold Coast pocket.</p>

<p>Ocean Suites on Jennifer will be move-in ready before Christmas this year, giving buyers the chance to spend the summer on the water in one of Runaway Bay’s rare new waterfront residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214444]</p>

<p>The development is a collaboration between <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/stuart-osman">Stuart Osman Design</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sand-side-developments">Sand Side Developments</a>, with construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/alroe-constructions">Alroe Constructions</a>.</p>

<p>Architect Stuart Osman says the intent from the outset was to create a home people would be drawn to. “When you build anything, the design is to make you want to go hang out in this house,” he says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Ocean Suites on Jennifer’s design features a front façade softened with planter boxes, rear pool areas, and rooftop decks looking over the water.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, voids and high skylights bring daylight deep into the centre of each home, while ceiling heights of 2.85 metres maintain a strong sense of volume.</p>

<p>Each four-level residence spans 345 to 388 sqm, with layouts accommodating multi-generational living - a ground-floor bedroom suite for older family members and upper levels for the rest of the household. A lift connects all floors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214435]</p>

<p>For Andrew Erwin, Director at NPA, the project’s appeal lies in both its location and the detail in execution.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"At Ocean Suites, you’ve got a canal-front setting with direct Broadwater access and a level of finish you’d normally only see in the city’s most prestigious addresses. The four-level layouts, the glass-framed living areas, the private pools, even the extended kitchens, every part of it has been designed with the buyer in mind,” he says.</p>

<p>Those buyers have so far been a mix of Gold Coast locals and interstate purchasers, many seeking a lock-up-and-leave holiday home or a downsized residence without sacrificing space for visiting family.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Older households with teenage children are a recurring profile, drawn to layouts that support multi-generational living and the ability to host extended stays.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214432]</p>

<p>Material selection reinforces the project’s quality-first ethos, with every home appointed to a premium standard. Kitchens and ensuites feature engineered stone surfaces, complemented by prestige oak engineered timber floors, Victorian ash hardwood staircases, and soft loop-pile carpet.</p>

<p>Premium lighting, statement pendants, ceiling fans, and Fujitsu ducted air conditioning elevate both comfort and design. Each residence also includes a suite of high-end appliances as standard - Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated fridges, Bosch ovens, induction cooktops and dishwashers, Vintec wine fridges, and Franke sinks.</p>

<p>Beyond the interiors, residents enjoy an enviable lifestyle with rooftop terraces, private plunge pools, fire pit areas, outdoor showers, smart home automation, laundry chutes, and private pontoons.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214452]</p>

<p>With no additional upgrade costs, Sand Side Developments underscores its no-shortcuts approach, delivering homes where luxury and amenity come as standard.</p>

<p>Osman adds that the kitchen has been designed as “the main hub of the house” with six metres high skylights above a galley-style layout that “makes it feel bigger, brighter, whiter” and “brings light into the centre of the home.”</p>

<p>Both architect and builder emphasise a shared commitment to delivering the intended design without compromise. “Working with Alroe’s structural team and their construction team, it’s been great to make sure that the look and feel that was originally intended is the result achieved at the end of the project,” Osman says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214453]</p>

<p>Outdoor living has been given equal consideration, with rooftop terraces designed for entertaining with a fire pit and bar, and spacious undercover patios featuring private plunge pools.</p>

<p>The marine access is as carefully executed as the homes themselves. An eight-metre gangway leads to a six-metre private pontoon capable of mooring vessels up to 30 feet, just 300 metres by water from the Broadwater.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Even the orientation of each villa has been optimised to capture long views down the canal, across the Broadwater, and south to Main Beach.</p>

<p>With construction in its final stages, just three of the seven villas remain, priced from $3.365 million to $3.695 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138718]</p>


Sovereign Island standards come to Runaway Bay with Ocean Suites on Jennifer

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Expert Observer</p>

<p>As we previously projected, the housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor. In addition, it is highly likely that the ultra-low interest rate environment will remain in place for at least for the next 24 months, and possibly longer. </p>

<p>This, combined with only a low availability of stock of quality assets in popular areas, has been reflected in almost unprecedented auction clearance rates.  </p>

<p>Buyer’s agents have been reporting tight stock levels all over the country. </p>

<p>It’s not uncommon to see lower stock levels over the summer break, but this year has been something else. Even as new listings have begun to pick up supply is being comfortably outstripped by demand and the market overall is very tight.</p>

<p>Melbourne presents a slightly different dynamic, with various disruptions making the market more disjointed, but in most parts of the country open homes are busy as confidence returns, and strong sales results are being reported in short order.</p>

<p>Market dynamics confirmed earlier forecasts of strong price growth in 2021, with some markets likely to even better than previously forecast. </p>

<p>It is projected that both Sydney and Melbourne will deliver capital growth in the range of 8-12 per cent in 2021. Many areas are also likely to deliver double digit growth over the calendar year. In particular, houses with a high land value component and scarcity value are likely to enjoy very strong demand and capital growth, both in the short and long term. </p>

<p>Other markets, particularly south-east Queensland and popular regional areas that offer particularly good lifestyle choices, also enjoy strong demand, and this is likely to result in strong price growth both in the short- and long-term, as the trend of increased popularity of such areas is sustained. </p>

<p>The medium- and long-term projections for South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory, are different than those that are projected to the eastern states. While many other areas that experience lower population growth and softer job market (in comparison to Sydney and Melbourne), such as Perth, are also experiencing strong capital growth for houses, this is less sustainable over the long term, due to lower external migration and a relatively smaller number of high paying jobs in the ‘knowledge industry’ (e.g., financial services, IT, etc).  </p>

<p>Obviously, these are under our key underlying assumption is that the COVID-19 vaccinations that have been rolled out will provide a sustainable solution to the virus over time. </p>

<p>Rental apartments, however, continue to represent a higher risk at the present time, in particular inner-city apartment markets such as Inner-Melbourne.  </p>

<p>Consumer sentiment is very high, as expected. According to Westpac-Melbourne Institute, in February, Westpac’s key measure of house price expectations has risen strongly to 154.7 from 117.3 in October. All states have registered impressive recoveries. </p>

<p>House price expectations are already being reflected in auction clearance rates figures, especially in Melbourne. Preliminary auction clearance rates in the last week of January showed results of 83 per cent in Melbourne and 83 per cent in Sydney, with noticeably higher auction clearance rates for houses than units. Clearance rates across the country are likely to remain high and similar to pre-pandemic Levels and well above the 70 per cent mark. </p>

<p>A sustained period of ultra-low interest rates seems almost certain in the foreseeable future. This has led some lenders to offer introductory home loan variable rates of 1.79 per cent, a move which follows the launch of the first fixed rates of 1.75 per cent. Consequently, this has led to an increase in housing finance.  </p>

<p>The latest ABS data on new housing lending showed a record 31.2 per cent year-on-year rise, driven by a surge in owner-occupier lending (which includes a large increase in construction loans) as well as a smaller rise in investment lending. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments increased by 8.7 per cent to $19.9 billion in December 2020 and the value of investor loan commitments was also up 10.9 per cent to $6.07 billion. </p>

<p>First home buyer activity is also well above the benchmark, up 56.6 per cent year-on-year. However, the share of owner-occupier activity is likely to reduce with an expected increase in investor activity. </p>

<p>A further increase in housing finance is highly likely during the first quarter of 2021 with many lenders already experiencing backlogs to address loan pre-approval applications. Ultra-low interest rates are also likely to have a positive impact on the market during 2021 and 2022. </p>

<p>Lifestyle areas enjoyed strong demand before COVID-19 hit, and the demand trend of sea- and treechange homebuyers is now, with flexible working arrangements, even stronger. Those who work in a stable corporate environment, but do so remotely, are taking advantage of great buying opportunities in NSW, Victoria, and south-east Queensland. </p>

<p>These include areas of south-east Queensland such as the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, just over the NSW border in Byron Bay, and further south on the Central Coast, in areas such as North Avoca, Terrigal, and Wamberal. Then, there are also sought-after locations such as the Hunter Valley, Wollongong, and the NSW South Coast, and in Victoria, the Mornington Peninsula, Geelong, and Ballarat. Beachside suburbs especially are outperforming the wider market as they offer fantastic lifestyle opportunities. The ability to work remotely and to move to regional areas also has been a contributing factor in supporting housing affordability, as the pressure in capital cities will be somewhat mitigated. </p>

<p>Due to ultra-low interest rates, the housing market is reaching new highs with further price increases projected. Consequently, this will make dwellings less affordable when including the required deposit and closing costs. While internal migration to regional areas somewhat mitigates the problem, there is still a major undersupply of family suitable properties in popular areas with proximity to the major employment hubs. </p>

<p>High-rise apartments are not considered to be a fully substitutable product to houses and townhouses, and therefore will not materially impact the demand for houses. Housing affordability is likely to remain a chronic issue particularly in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne as well as popular areas in south-east Queensland. </p>

<p>However, it is likely that strong price increases will encourage APRA to watch the housing market closely, particularly given record low interest rates, high household debt, and signs of some revival in borrowing for speculative purposes. It should be noted that strong investor activity is perceived by the RBA as ‘speculation’ that increases the risks to financial stability. Consequently, any major increase in investor activity is likely to trigger the reintroduction of macroprudential measures by APRA, at a certain point in time. </p>

<p>Population growth, as projected, has been reduced substantially and there will be significant reduction in total population growth due to low external migration, with Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in FY21 is expected to drop to -71,600 people, for Australia's first experience of negative NOM since 1946. This negative trend is forecast to continue in FY22 and only gradually return to pre-COVID levels from FY23 onwards. The reduction in overseas migration has and will continue to have a major impact on rental apartments that have already experienced increased vacancy rates and lower demand from investors. </p>

<p>In the immediate term, there are higher risks in the rental apartment segment, that are likely to result in price reductions across the country, particularly in heavily supplied areas in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Sydney. These markets may be more volatile due to the high proportion of property investors and high levels of external migration. There is a renewed interest in the high risk off-the-plan units, due to generous government concessions and the perceived opportunity to buy at, allegedly, low prices. </p>

<p>However, off-the-plan units carry a high level of risk mainly as buyers, including property investors, shift demand towards detached houses. Uncertainty in relation to external migration further increases the risk. </p>

<p>The unit rental market overall remains relatively weak. The decline in unit rents was largely concentrated around the inner-city markets of Melbourne and Sydney, contributing to a city-wide drop of 7.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively over the year. Unit rents also fell 4.6 per cent across the combined capital city unit market. </p>

<p>This increases serviceability risk (particularly in the short term) due to the combination of continued high supply of units, preference for houses in capital cities and regional areas, and uncertainty related to the rental demand largely driven by young renters and migrants.  </p>

<p>Serviceability risk already has and will continue to have a significant impact on investor demand for high-rise units, as investors are very responsive to out-of-pocket expenses. </p>

<p>Therefore, both equity risk and cash flow risk for rental apartments, remain relatively high.</p>

<p>Pete Wargent </p>
</body></html>

The housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor

pwargent

Ultra-low interest rates and 'FOMO' drive dwelling values to new highs with double-digit growth on the horizon: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Reserve Bank assets have continued to increase to $319 billion as at mid-December. </p>

<p>But as money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. </p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="331" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg?itok=9hlONLhn" width="580"></a></figure><p>Business credit growth was negative again in November, as it was in October, and there's been little need for personal credit to grow lately as stimulus (in fact personal credit growth has crashed deeply into negative territory this year). </p>

<p>Housing credit growth continued to move up to a 17-month high, but overall will be more modest in this cycle with interest-only loans outstanding having been crunched lower from $580 billion to around $260 billion. </p>

<p>To date the growth has been all about owner-occupiers, with this cohort recording +5.4 per cent credit growth over the year to November 2020. </p>

<p>The housing credit impulse already points to higher housing prices in the first quarter of 2021. </p>

<p>With enquiries from investors suddenly jumping in December housing credit growth will likely rise further, in turn igniting double digit gains for property prices (base case).</p>
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As money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. 

Credit growth slumps to new cycle lows: Pete Wargent

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<p>The lower dollar continues to work away on Arrivals and Departure trends, with a further +1.8 per cent seasonally adjusted increase in the number of short term arrivals in November, and a -2.8 per cent decrease in the equivalent number of departures.  </p>
<p>The monthly ratio of short term departures this continues to decline, which will act as a twin boost for the domestic economy.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-b73svb4ZFPU/VpUnsI93FyI/AAAAAAAAak0/7_yWcorhIAA/s640/A2.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="320"></p>
<p>The labour market is not presently strong enough to warrant the exceedingly high level of net permanent and long term immigration seen in 2013 of above 400,000.</p>
<p>The rolling annual figure is now seemingly getting set to stabilise – in November the rolling annual total ticked down slightly from 278,200 to 277,600, with the decline being felt most keenly in the resources states and the regions, as opposed to the largest capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O7WpgUtq3xE/VpUnsHJlouI/AAAAAAAAaks/zY07p-aR25M/s640/A1.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="322"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.sg/2015/12/students-to-drive-population" target="_blank">forecasts</a> from the Department of Immigration &amp; Border Protection (DIBP) show that the population growth rebound for the remainder of this decade will be driven by international students rather than by immigrants on 457 or permanent resident visas.</p>
<h4>RECORD CHINESE TOURISM</h4>
<p>The annual number of short term arrivals into Australia surged to a new record high of 7.36 million in November.</p>
<p>There have been significant increases in the number of visitors from India (+19 per cent) and the United States (+9 per cent) over the past year, Americans doubtless encouraged by favourable shifts in the exchange rate.</p>
<p>There can no doubting the key trend here, however, which has been the vast +17 per cent increase in the number of visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to 1.36 million.</p>
<p>The pace and scale of the increase over the past decade has been breathtaking, as documented regularly on this blog.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7I2RT3jAbrU/VpUns-kh5eI/AAAAAAAAak4/zg5drP4jalk/s640/A4.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="328"></p>
<p>For the first time China alone accounted for more than 1 million visitors in the year to November, and make no mistake, Chinese tourists spend up big when they come to Australia.</p>
<h4>STUDENTS</h4>
<p>A record 3.38 million persons came to Australia for a holiday over the year, while for the first time this year more than 2 million cited there reason for journey as “visiting friends and relatives”, reflective of Australia’s status as a country built on immigration.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Z1Fex7hVrZI/VpUnsNsACqI/AAAAAAAAakw/40K-WQd6p_0/s640/A3.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="326"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The other key trend to watch this year is the explosion in the number of international students, not least because following a streamlining of the acceptance rules so many are expected to go on to become permanent residents on other visas.</p>
<p>This data series confirmed that the rolling annual number of education arrivals jumped by an unprecedented +71,200 or +18 per cent to 464,600 in the year to November.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSAHnIJp5Ec/VpUns7Fo29I/AAAAAAAAak8/Bhsg-ejlFSg/s640/A5.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="312"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Most students are projected to be accepted into the large capital cities.</p>
<p><span>Pete Wargent is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.</span></p>
<p> </p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

How the dollar is driving demographic trends for property investors: Pete Wargent

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<div>There has been a lot of misleading commentary about population growth dropping off a cliff, and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It really isn't, but the composition of growth is sure changing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I explained <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/students-to-drive-population" target="_blank">here</a> back in 2015 why international students would be the key driver of growth going forward.<br><br> It's a key reason why so many bloggers and analysts got their supply and demand ratios so muddled last year, particularly in Melbourne where <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/melbournes-population-explosion" target="_blank">population growth broke all known records in 2016</a>, but also in Sydney, and to a much lesser extent Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures from the DIBP confirmed a walloping increase of 90,380 temporary visa holders over the year to September 2016, with a crunching increase in student visa holders of 45,070 over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Remember many international students are expected to go to secure Australian residency through other visa classes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was also a massive 51.4 per cent increase in temporary graduate visa holders, easily eclipsing the relatively small decline in skilled 457 visas (that form the basis of most doomsday scenarios).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lK4sTHM0uYs/WHdgU0fcoSI/AAAAAAAAhM0/GyXPi2QtKwIIQYK41p-R605PYMtqVcG5QCLcB/s640/V1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lK4sTHM0uYs/WHdgU0fcoSI/AAAAAAAAhM0/GyXPi2QtKwIIQYK41p-R605PYMtqVcG5QCLcB/s1600/V1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lK4sTHM0uYs/WHdgU0fcoSI/AAAAAAAAhM0/GyXPi2QtKwIIQYK41p-R605PYMtqVcG5QCLcB/s640/V1.jpg" width="640" height="240"></a></p>
<p>Source: DIBP</p>
<div>By far the greatest number of temporary visa holders were Kiwis on the visa subclass 444, increasing by 2.3 per cent to 677,030, dispelling the narrative that all Kiwis are heading home.<br><br> Total temporary entrants will rise towards 2.1 million by the end of 2017.</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzgXJuEpkk0/WHdgUqv7CTI/AAAAAAAAhMw/DC6WVITK2OUb1g5rEkB6izXpV9_sxBxDwCLcB/s640/V2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzgXJuEpkk0/WHdgUqv7CTI/AAAAAAAAhMw/DC6WVITK2OUb1g5rEkB6izXpV9_sxBxDwCLcB/s1600/V2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VzgXJuEpkk0/WHdgUqv7CTI/AAAAAAAAhMw/DC6WVITK2OUb1g5rEkB6izXpV9_sxBxDwCLcB/s640/V2.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a><br><br> Thanks to the visa subclass 444, some 34.5 per cent of temporary visa holders are New Zealanders.<br><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rfnlCybJ6ME/WHdgVEXjSuI/AAAAAAAAhM4/SpZNbB3_84gsYYaz5gmVwrT8KZm2wSIHwCLcB/s640/V3.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a><br><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rfnlCybJ6ME/WHdgVEXjSuI/AAAAAAAAhM4/SpZNbB3_84gsYYaz5gmVwrT8KZm2wSIHwCLcB/s1600/V3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rfnlCybJ6ME/WHdgVEXjSuI/AAAAAAAAhM4/SpZNbB3_84gsYYaz5gmVwrT8KZm2wSIHwCLcB/s640/V3.jpg" width="640" height="296"></a><br><br> However, the real growth sector is in student visas, particularly to Chinese and Indian students.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S7kZqDb9cgU/WHdgToxuj0I/AAAAAAAAhMs/WzCBZ5Otx-IThjZwfZ_c-6tQ9aCvGp_ewCLcB/s640/STUDENT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S7kZqDb9cgU/WHdgToxuj0I/AAAAAAAAhMs/WzCBZ5Otx-IThjZwfZ_c-6tQ9aCvGp_ewCLcB/s1600/STUDENT.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S7kZqDb9cgU/WHdgToxuj0I/AAAAAAAAhMs/WzCBZ5Otx-IThjZwfZ_c-6tQ9aCvGp_ewCLcB/s640/STUDENT.jpg" width="640" height="298"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most international students head to institutions in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane - in that order.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As expected, the insatiable demand from international students will keep on keeping on, delivering a substantial boost for population growth in those three capital cities through 2016 and beyond.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</div>
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Students help temporary visa holders soar towards 2 million: Pete Wargent

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<div>Wages grew by just +0.48 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, to be +2.01 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Superficially this looks like a bit of an improvement, and at least it can be said that wages are growing a bit ahead of the rate of inflation. Just. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IYxYl65xkt4/WgveMX_lgEI/AAAAAAAAnA4/-A3i5dGy9uMkZQ5W1_XbzOkw7fXPcJU3gCEwYBhgL/s640/W4.jpg" width="640" height="398" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1336"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And including bonuses the annual increase was a slightly more upbeat +0.7 per cent for the quarter, and +2.2 per cent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the result this quarter was pumped up by the minimum wage increase, and you can see in the chart below that a number of industries (such as accommodation &amp; food) how this inflated the quarterly numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year the industries with the most robust wage price growth included healthcare &amp; social assistance (+2.7 per cent), arts &amp; recreation services (+2.7 per cent), and education &amp; training (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand wages growth in the mining sector (+1.2 per cent) remains very low, as it does in professional, scientific, &amp; tech services (+1.5 per cent). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qz-oEw4ScZk/WgveKUMf7-I/AAAAAAAAnBA/i1VE8nK3RLUV97PLMfKJ4ALyFwYD8NJjACEwYBhgL/s640/Q5.jpg" width="640" height="398" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1335"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Annual wage price growth in the private sector remains super-low at just +1.86 per cent, with wage price growth in the public sector some way higher at +2.37 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The public sector index has outpaced the private sector since the peak of the resources construction boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AsixGPHs0-4/WgveMQ-G2WI/AAAAAAAAnA8/Sk0v0wmiKGk7QWwu0qw-Sr1NzkzLaeVSgCEwYBhgL/s640/W3.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1361"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Resources states slow</span></strong></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>At the state level Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania each recorded wages growth of +2.2 per cent, while New South Wales (+2.1 per cent) also recorded reasonable growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there were considerably weaker results in Western Australia (+1.3 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+1.4 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-t5Uo7NdC0C8/WgveJMlBj1I/AAAAAAAAnAs/60BC3Bn-sUQWDuK1PRht2vH1chUljsgYQCLcBGAs/s640/W1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1355"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Western Australia recorded the fastest pace of wages growth through the mining boom, but is now coming back to the pack. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ixrHpZfGI4c/WgveK1jqFYI/AAAAAAAAnA0/23c2kG7sJzY-uhNmXvXpRFndFAJm3AVawCLcBGAs/s640/W2.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1356"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Overall, while it's positive to note annual wages growth moving a bit higher and ahead of the rate inflation, in reality this was a very soft result which missed expectations, having been puffed up by the minimum wage increase.<br><br>Not much in the way of pre-Xmas cheer to be found here! </div>
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Wages growth at snail's pace: Pete Wargent

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<p>Stamp duty isn't a much admired tax.</p>
<p>Except by governments that is!</p>
<p>The arguments against stamp and transfer duties include that they discourage labour force mobility, while making life challenging for first home buyers.</p>
<p>It's not hard to see why governments like them, though.</p>
<p>Over the year to February 2017 the NSW Office of State Revenue (OSR) alone recorded astronomical receipts of $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Stamp duty is now accounting for more than a quarter of state government revenue in NSW.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>I noted last year how the NSW government has smashed its budget targets to leave itself with net debt of less than zero for the first time, largely thanks to this remarkable windfall.</p>
<p>A proposed alternative would be to put an annual tax on the unimproved value of residential land, including for the family home (there is already a land tax threshold in place, but it doesn't capture all homeowners due to an exemption on the family home).</p>
<p>The main challenge is that with residential land values in New South Wales of $1,657 billion, the annual tax would have to be quite significant to raise the equivalent $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Recent proposals have included an annual land tax of 0.75 per cent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There are now just over 3 million dwellings in New South Wales, so another way to look at it is that households and owners of other residential dwellings may have to stump up on average $3,100 per annum to raise the equivalent amount of tax.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>A proposed land value tax would typically deliver comparatively little pain for those living in an apartment, since the land value content of such dwellings is relatively low.</p>
<p>On the other hand I think of the retirees on my street who now have very valuable land under their homes, for which the annual land tax bill would be impossible for them to pay.</p>
<p>So the argument goes, by taxing people on their homes they will be 'incentivised' to move somewhere smaller and more appropriate for their needs.</p>
<p>It could certainly happen over time, though it would be a brave move politically.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Stamp duty bonanza: Pete Wargent 

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for October 2017, which showed housing credit expanding by +6.5 per cent over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit is slowing, but total housing credit growth remained higher than a year earlier, when it was +6.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit broke through $1.7 trillion on the strength in owner-occupier lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>$60 billion of loans have now been reclassified from investor to owner-occupier. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1403"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit contracted by -0.9 per cent over the year, while annual business credit growth was steady at +4 per cent.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Know your limits</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA also released its monthly banking statistics, which revealed a similar trend, with the monthly result showing considerably faster growth in owner-occupier loans (+0.6 per cent) than investment lending (+0.15 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Comparing the aggregates suggests that non-banks continue to garner market share. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac has been offering discounted investor loans of late, and took the opportunity to grow its investment loans books further in the month (it already has the largest mortgage book pertaining to investors). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Indeed, not only is new interest-only lending now well below the proposed regulatory cap, all of the major banks are now seeing investor credit growing at way below the 10 per cent annual speed limit. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1367"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>These statistics show that there is potentially plenty of scope for banks to incentivise faster investor lending in 2018, particularly Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank.<br><br>Oh, and there's a Royal Commission to follow!</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wbT8FzhZC5w/WiKr6bzIaYI/AAAAAAAAnRo/tiSHmv9eWGUSJBb4WVlSCubp4peYkulpwCLcBGAs/s1600/limit-2299513_1920.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wbT8FzhZC5w/WiKr6bzIaYI/AAAAAAAAnRo/tiSHmv9eWGUSJBb4WVlSCubp4peYkulpwCLcBGAs/s640/limit-2299513_1920.jpg" width="640" height="480" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
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RBA's October Financial Aggregates figures sees housing credit expand

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<p>S&amp;P Global Ratings has reported that Australia's prime SPIN 30+ day delinquencies declined a little further from 1.08 per cent to 1.04 per cent in October 2017.</p>
<div id="post-body-3454931207027681415">
<div>
<p>31-60 day prime mortgage arrears have now been tracking at historic lows since June 2017.</p>
<p>There's still a bit happening in the 90+ days space, but arrears have been improving here too since May.</p>
<p>Year-on-year mortgage arrears were comfortably lower.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
</div>
<div>Declines were reported in all mainland states and territories. </div>
<br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s1600/SandP.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s400/SandP.jpg" width="400" height="327" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="788"></a></div>
<br><div>Source: S&amp;P Global Ratings</div>
<br><div>Western Australia continued to have the highest rate of 30-day arrears, declining from 2.21 per cent to 2.12 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lowest rate of delinquency was to be found in the ACT at only 0.58 per cent (Canberra has <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/drain-swamp" target="_blank">by far the highest incomes</a> on the country). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales 30-day arrears fell from 0.79 per cent to only 0.75 per cent in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arrears were also below 1 per cent in Victoria and Tasmania.<br><br>Over the past year the biggest improvers were the southern states of Tasmania and South Australia (the other ex-mining state jurisdictions had low arrears already).<br><br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1302"></a></div>
</div>
<div>As at the beginning of 2017, S&amp;P Global had reported:<br><br>"We believe that the risk of a sharp, disorderly correction in house prices remains relatively low, reflecting our stable economic outlook for Australia."<br><br>While risks remain, S&amp;P commented this month:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"We do not expect arrears to increase much above current levels while benign economic conditions persist." </div>
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Mortgage delinquencies decline further: Pete Wargent

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<div>In August 2017 I attempted to estimate the value and timing of forced interest-only ('IO') resets as a result of tighter lending standards. </div>
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<div>Since that time many rational borrowers have elected to switch to principal and interest (P&amp;I) loans to benefit from the more attractive mortgage rates on offer. </div>
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<div>APRA's quarterly ADI figures showed that the flow of new IO loans was under 16 per cent for a second consecutive quarter. </div>
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<div>This dynamic combination has had a marked impact on the stock value of outstanding IO loans, declining by $93.2 billion of 16.1 per cent year-on-year.</div>
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<div>As a share of ADI residential term loan exposures IO loans have therefore been reduced to 31 per cent as at March 2018, well down from close to 39 per cent a year earlier. </div>
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<div>Most borrowers appear to be handling the switch comfortably.</div>
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<div>Those most impacted are likely to be portfolio investors, although many of this cohort built their portfolios over a long period of time, building equity and cashflow in doing so. </div>
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<div>Some may have to sell a property or two in order to reduce debt. </div>
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<div>The share of higher loan-to-value (LVR) ratio lending continued to tighten in the March quarter, having already declined considerably since 2014. </div>
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<div>The latest figures relate to the first three months of 2018, so it's difficult to know whether the Royal Commission had any further impact over the following period through to June.</div>
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<div>It's interesting to note that the major lenders have lost some market share over time.</div>
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<div>Yet bank share prices saw a punchy rebound this week, possibly relating to a short squeeze, or more likely a pervading sense of relief as the media loses its appetite for daily stories from the Royal Commission. </div>
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<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
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Most IO borrowers handling the switch to P&I comfortably

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<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.<br><br>I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>.<br><br>Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.<br><br>The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.<br><br>I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1: By natural causes...</span></strong><br><br>
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<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.<br><br>The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.<br><br>Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.<br><br>I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.<br><br>I've yet to get divorced.<br><br>You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">much</span></strong> longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).<br><br>Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.<br><br>Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
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<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here.<br><br>Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.<br><br>Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort.<br><br>The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.<br><br>Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2: Immigration nation</span></strong><br><br>
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<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.<br><br>Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.<br><br>Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).<br><br>Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
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<p> The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. </p>
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<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the <em>Characteristics of Recent Migrants</em> survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
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<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
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<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
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<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
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<div>
<br>Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.<br><br>Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.<br><br>European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).<br><br>This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3: Upping sticks</span></strong><br><br>One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.<br><br>Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.<br><br>This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.<br><br>For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.<br><br>About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
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<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.<br><br>Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.<br><br>South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.<br><br>The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.<br><br>Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.<br><br>I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 4: Totting it up</span></strong><br><br>Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.<br><br>Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.<br><br>I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.<br><br>But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
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<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
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<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
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<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
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<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
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<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
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<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
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<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.<br><br>Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
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<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
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Pete Wargent

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