<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">It's become traditional at this time of year for the media to mention all the potential gloom and risks facing the economy - the auto assembly industry shutting down is an old favourite, and resources construction declining, of course.</span></h3>
<p>Thing is, we've known about these issues for aeons now.  </p>
<p>What is rarely mentioned is that if the all of the downside events do play out the declining Aussie dollar would bear the brunt of the adjustment, quickly declining to 40 to 50 cents.</p>
<p>Given that the Reserve Bank seems unwilling to cut interest rates further, a strong increase in business investment over the next couple of years admittedly doesn't seem all that probable. </p>
<p>Regardless, nothing is all good or all bad, and here are a few possible upside risks for the economy.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1 - Manufacturing jobs increase </strong></span></p>
<p>The car industry will see some manufacturing jobs go this year. Still, manufacturing employment soared by +102,000 last year, and the PMI gauge is in positive territory too. Any more to come where this came from with the lower dollar?</p>
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/09/A2.jpg" alt=""><br><span><span><br></span></span><span><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Unemployment rate drops towards 4 per cent (&amp; wages breakout)</span></strong></span></span><br><span><br></span><span>The unemployment rate has declined from 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent at the latest reading. A sharp decline towards 4 per cent isn't in anyone's base case, but it's not out of the question either according to the Reserve Bank's modelling. </span>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Mining investment bust ends</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>Commodity prices soared by 45 percent last year, and bulk commodities ripped higher by 145 percent, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the nadir is in sooner than expected, possibly before the calendar year is out.   </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - LNG price increases 50pc</span></strong></div>
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<div>LNG export volumes are forecast by Treasury to triple between 2015 and 2021. </div>
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<div>The Henry Hub natural gas spot prices is up by more than 75 percent from one year ago, and there could be more to come yet as oil prices rebound. </div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5 - Property prices rise 12pc in 2017, unleashing a wealth effect</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>SQM Research see strong price gains nationally as possible, with prices in Sydney to rise by as much as 18 percent.</div>
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<div><span><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></span></div>
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<div>The wealth effect on household expenditure doesn't seem all that likely, but stranger things have happened, especially with household wealth passing a record $9 trillion last year.<br><br>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">6 - Infrastructure booms</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>The NSW state government has zero net debt for the first time on record on the back of the biggest stamp duty boom in Australia's history, which should fund some serious infrastructure investment. </div>
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<div><span>Nationally, an infrastructure boom could be underway...</span></div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">7 - China unleashes its capital account</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>China has a rapidly urbanising population of 1.4 billion. If the capital account ever gets unleashed to buy international assets in earnest... well, there are only 24 million of us...</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 - Tourism &amp; education boom</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>Tourism and international student arrivals are already booming, and arrivals could rise 10 to 15 per cent over the next year following a streamlining of student visa rules, helping to send annual population growth back towards 450,000 per annum. Chinese visitor spend is also already exploding. <br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">9 - Global growth accelerates, Australian GDP to above 5 percent</span></strong>
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<div>The Trump victory becomes a global turning point, and a combination of expansionary policy overseas and a revival of the animal spirits sees Australia's GDP growth accelerate to above 5 percent.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>We won't see all of these unfold of course, but four or five of them could easily play out. </div>
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<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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Nine upside risks to the Australian economy in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>Annual migration to New Zealand hit its highest annual level on record in November 2016 at 70,400. </p>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>Australia saw a net loss of permanent and long term 1,830 departures to NZ over the year - mainly Kiwis returning home - although over the last six years the cumulative gain to Australia has been more than 116,000. </p>
<div id="post-body-8831991451369549932" class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/NZ1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div class="separator">Although it's tempting to think that Australia is losing population to New Zealand, in reality the opposite is true.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, an extra 16,000 Kiwis came to Australia on 444 visas on a net basis over the year, taking the total storming past 677,000. </div>
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<div class="separator">The big drivers of migration to NZ are now China and South Africa. </div>
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<br>NZ still has a lower unemployment rate than Australia, which is very much helping its cause.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NZ migration highest on record: Pete Wargent

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<p class="Body">There are many wonderful quotes on the subject of truth and lots of them are relevant to Australian real estate issues.</p>
<p class="Body">Mark Twain said “A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes” while Winston Churchill is credited with saying “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened”.</p>
<p class="Body">Benjamin Disraeli gave us “There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics”, a reality which is seen every day in the press release-based coverage of Australian real estate.</p>
<p class="Body">But the one that’s most relevant to real estate today is this one from Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”</p>
<p class="Body">We see this revealed in the many surveys conducted on real estate issues. In simple terms, the prevailing view is the one most often reported in mainstream media, the truth notwithstanding.</p>
<p class="Body">So if media keeps stating a “national affordability crisis” as a fact, as it does daily, it’s no surprise when a survey reveals that most respondents are very concerned that young Australians are priced out of real estate ownership – everywhere in Australia, apparently.</p>
<p class="Body">Nor was it surprising when another recent survey found that foreign investors are the most popular culprits blamed for rising house prices in Australia. </p>
<p class="Body">This results largely from a cynical exercise by federal politicians taken direct from a script of the iconic UK sitcom Yes Minister. If you want to show concern for an issue but plan to change nothing, here’s what you do: hold an inquiry, string it out as long as you can and, at the end of it, find an unpopular minority to blame for the problem – and then recommend holding another, more in-depth, inquiry.</p>
<p class="Body">That’s pretty much the scenario that’s played out in Canberra over the past 2-3 years. A long inquiry ended by blaming all the problems on dastardly foreign investors. Brilliant, because greedy foreigners are easy to dislike and they don’t vote in Australian elections.</p>
<p class="Body">So, while bringing on a second inquiry (the one that recently concluded by making no recommendations), the Federal Government indulged lots of wonderful sabre rattling and passionate speeches about clamping down on foreigners who break the rules, thereby creating a level playing field for young Aussie hopefuls.</p>
<p class="Body">There were a few highly-publicized instances of foreign buyers being forced to sell back mansions they’d bought in breach of the foreign investment rules. There you go, Australia, problem solved.</p>
<p class="Body">But you’ll notice that prices have continued to rise in our biggest cities. All the fluff and nonsense, all those press statements and acres of newsprint - and not a single house is cheaper in Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p class="Body">Why is it so? Because foreign investors have little or nothing to do with the cost of homes out there in the burbs where first-home buyers hunt. They’re a tiny percentage of the overall market and they mostly target high-end houses in the big cities or off-the-plan apartments. They’re not scouring Blacktown or Caboolture or Cranbourne seeking to outbid Aussie first-home buyers.</p>
<p class="Body">But 35 percent of respondents to a RateCity survey believed that the single biggest reason for high house prices was foreign investors. Why? Because media reports keep telling them so and your average punter doesn’t waste a lot of time on independent thought.</p>
<p class="Body">The next most popular culprits in the survey, Australian investors, are also unfairly maligned as the cause of real estate prices rising everywhere.</p>
<p class="Body">And, once again, the two worst offenders get off scot free, because media never talks about them.</p>
<p class="Body">The buying sector that most drives prices is the mob known as next-time buyers – home buyers other than first-time buyers. Most of the time they’re the biggest individual buying cohort and they have the ambition, aspiration and financial capacity to pay a top price. Investors have different motivations.</p>
<p class="Body">And when it comes to new dwellings, the biggest source of high costs are politicians are all levels of government. Local government, state governments and the federal government – they all treat the housing industry as a cash cow and load up the cost of new dwellings with taxes, fees and charges.</p>
<p class="Body">So when new NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian declared that housing affordability was one of her top three priorities, she was (like everyone who has come before her) mouthing platitudes.</p>
<p class="Body">She’s refusing to even consider doing something about the worst of all home-buyer costs, stamp duty, which in Sydney borders on the obscene – nor about the contribution her government makes to the high cost of creating new dwellings.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's housing affordability platitudes

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<div>Within the Consumer Price Index figures, the ABS produces some very useful quality-adjusted figures on rental price inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series shows how rents can rise very fast when investors are spooked out of the market, such as between 1985 and 1987 (changes to tax legislation) and 2008 (global financial crisis).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When investor activity is high, on the other hand, the growth in rents is likely to be weaker, and this is also the case when low interest rates make buying a home comparatively more attractive than renting. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, nationally annual rental price growth is at its lowest level in more than 22 years, at 0.6 per cent.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s1600/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a><br><br>In Perth, annual rental growth has turned negative to the tune of -7.2 per cent.<br><br></p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="352"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Darwin is by some margin the weakest rental market, with rents declining by -8.2 per cent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other side of the ledger, Hobart is the tightest capital city rental market, with quality-adjusted rents increasing by 3.5 per cent in 2016. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A look at the long-run figures shows that despite the supply response real rents in both Sydney and Melbourne continued to rise to all-time highs. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<p> In real terms, at the city level Brisbane rents are certain to move lower in 2017 due to the inner city apartments overbuild. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</p>
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Where capital city rents are falling further in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Most indicators suggest that Melbourne has moved into first place as the city creating the most jobs and growth.</span></p>
<p>That said, the New South Wales Treasurer handed down a 2017-18 Budget yesterday revealing that the state's finances are in rude health.</p>
<p>Each month I've been tracking the unprecedented stamp duty take resulting from Sydney's property boom, a gift which has kept on giving.</p>
<p>It was reported yesterday that the state beat projections in 2016-17 to hit another surplus of $4.5 billion, with NSW now in a negative net debt position, boasting a net worth totalling more than a quarter of a trillion dollars, and with enough left over to set up a $15 billion Future Fund.</p>
<p>To complete the virtuous circle the state now plans to unleash a towering $72.7 billion spend on infrastructure, incorporating an impressive range of projects, a further record $7.7 billion for health infrastructure, and $4.2 billion to build 26 new schools and to fund upgrades.</p>
<p>This is a positive move for Sydney, and the harbour city will need to get these projects moving to fill the hole left by any coming downturn in the rate of apartment building.</p>
<p>Melbourne vacancies keep falling</p>
<p>We seem to have reached an inflection point in this property cycle.</p>
<p>Lower interest rates spurred record numbers of property investors into the market since 2012.</p>
<p>But now regulators and banks are winding back interest-only loans and have introduced tougher serviceability measures and higher mortgage rates for investment products.</p>
<p>And this is at a time when demand for rentals has never been higher, with employees changing roles and locations more frequently than in times past, and a record boom in international visitors and students.</p>
<p>While the rate of dwelling construction has been impressive, I recently mused <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/is-sydney-heading-for-rental-crisis">here</a> whether the number of available rental properties will keep up with demand this year and next. </p>
<p>Vacancy rates declined across much of Australia in May, with the national vacancy rate dropping from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent. </p>
<p>Vacancies remained super-tight in Hobart (0.6 per cent) and Canberra (1 per cent), while in Sydney the vacancy rate declined to just 1.8 per cent. </p>
<p>Vacancy rates ticked down in Brisbane, Perth, and Darwin in May, though from elevated levels in the case of Perth and Darwin, where median asking rents continue to slide. </p>
<p>In Melbourne the vacancy rate is almost in freefall, halving from more than 3 per cent at the end of 2014 to a 7-year low of just 1.5 per cent. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Inflation impact?</span></p>
<p>SQM's asking rents index shows rents already rising for apartments in Sydney (up 3.5 per cent over the year to June 20), and quite sharply for apartments in Melbourne (up 5.9 per cent).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/22/SQM1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/22/SQM1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The vacancy rates figures suggest that rental prices may soon level off in the resources capitals, while there is mounting evidence of a tightening rental market in the two most populous capital cities. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>If rents do start to rise again then this has implications for monetary policy since rents form an important part of the consumer price index (combined with rising energy prices, a strengthening rental market could be enough to scope out further rate cuts).<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>On the other side of the ledger, oil prices have declined to their lowest level in 9 months. </p>
<p>Overall, the figures suggested that the rental markets in the weakest cities are approaching their cyclical nadir, while most other markets ex-Brisbane are either tight or tightening. </p>
<p>Most notably, the feared oversupply in Melbourne has not materialised - if anything the number of available rentals is failing to keep pace with demand. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Melbourne vacancies crash to a 7-year low

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<p>Roy Morgan reported from its survey of over 50,000 households per annum that those at risk of mortgage stress fell by some 78,000 from a year ago to 16.8 percent, to sit well below the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/26/RM1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Those 'extremely at risk' also fell to the lowest level in well over a decade, which is good to see. </p>
<p>The high risk cohort overwhelmingly comprises lower income households, and is far less represented by households earning $100,000 per annum or more. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Lower rates reducing mortgage stress

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<p>The distant beating of jungle drums is getting just that bit harder to ignore as the Australian economy continues to pick up the pace.  </p>
<p>It's true that the much stronger jobs figures seen in 2017 are a lagging indicator, but job vacancies surveys are pointing to good things ahead.</p>
<p>And now the timely business survey from National Australia Bank (NAB) is turning north towards further gains.</p>
<p>The reading for business confidence rose to +9, in June 2017 well ahead of the long run average of +6.</p>
<p>And business conditions have stormed to +15, which is the highest reading in 9 years and follows the other key measure of conditions already reported. </p>
<p>The long run average reading for the series is +5. </p>
<p>Granted things promptly got worse last time we reached these heights, but this survey now sits a world away from the stuttering results of 2014.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/13/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: NAB</span></em></div>
<br><div>Conditions looked relatively upbeat across all industries except for mining, with even retail turning in a much improved result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Capacity utilisation rates point to further declines in unemployment, and even the labour costs index has broken out, suggesting that stronger wages growth may also follow in time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the mainland states, Queensland has seen a huge leap in business confidence to +13, now overtaking New South Wales +10. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consumer confidence is expected to follow this series higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rates to follow?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Markets have seen enough and are now pricing a rate hike before the end of 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite this, it seems likely that the core inflation rate for the second quarter of 2017 will remain under the target 2 to 3 per cent range. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The inflation report is due for release on July 27. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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NAB survey burns house down: Pete Wargent

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<p>According to the latest housing finance data release for March 2017 there was $33.2 billion in finance commitments over the month. </p>
<p>The monthly value of commitments increased by 0.9 percent to be 5.3 percent higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>While the value of commitments to investors has slowed over recent months, owner occupier demand lifted slightly in March 2017.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-1-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-1-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data shows that in March 2017, the $33.2 billion in housing finance commitments comprised of $20.2 billion to owner occupiers and $13.0 billion to investors. </p>
<p>The value of owner occupier commitments increased by 0.9 percent over the month to be at its highest level since June 2016. </p>
<p>Investor demand also rose over the month, up 0.8 percent however, it remains well below levels from a few months ago. </p>
<p>Looking at recent monthly data it suggests that demand from owner occupiers has been reasonably steady while the level of demand from investors has eased. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that this data pre-dates the most recent policy announcement from APRA; over the coming months there are likely to be a number of headwinds for investors in the form of: higher mortgage rates, reduced availability of interest-only lending and changes to depreciation benefits for plant and equipment on investment property for new purchases. </p>
<p>Given this we would expect that investor demand is likely to fall further over the coming months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-2-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-2-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Owner occupier demand continues to be fueled by purchases of established housing stock while refinance activity continues to fade. </p>
<p>The $20.2 billion in housing finance commitments to owner occupiers consisted of $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.1 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $11.1 billion for purchase of other established dwellings. </p>
<p>The value of lending for construction and purchase of new dwellings has remained at fairly consistent levels over the past year and a half. </p>
<p>The value of refinancing has been trending lower since it peaked in December 2015 and it is now at its lowest level since July 2015. </p>
<p>At the same time, demand for purchases of established dwellings is trending higher and is at its highest level since September 2015.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-3-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-3-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Mortgage demand from investors overwhelmingly comes from investors buying established housing rather than new housing. </p>
<p>The $13.0 billion worth of commitments in March 2017 consisted of $1.1 billion from construction of dwellings and $11.9 billion from established housing. </p>
<p>The $1.1 billion in commitments for construction was 6.1 percent higher over the month while the $11.9 billion for established housing is 0.3 percent higher over the month. </p>
<p>The value of lending for investors for established housing is now down -4.6 percent from its most recent peak two months ago and -12.5 percent lower than its historic peak in April 2015.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/24/chart-4-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/05/24/chart-4-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Comparing established housing to new housing continues to show that the bulk of housing demand is coming from established housing stock. </p>
<p>Over the month, 85 percent of mortgage demand (excluding refinances) was for established housing stock ($23.0 billion) with the remaining 15 percent ($4.0 billion) for new housing stock.</p>
<p>The data is pointing to ongoing weaker demand from the investor segment of the market and refinances from owner occupiers slowing while demand from owner occupiers for established housing stock is trending higher. </p>
<p>With the lending environment continuing to change, particularly for investors, we would expect that demand from investors will continue to wane. </p>
<p>Higher interest rates, the rationing of the availability of interest-only lending and reduced negative gearing benefits is likely to weigh on investor demand over the coming months.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Investor mortgage demand continues to wane: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Whenever a major research firm publishes its latest data on the movement in capital city house prices, media presents that data as fact.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It also, often, makes sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the figures, relative to affordability, the state of the market and the impact on consumers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The next firm to publish data will receive the same media treatment: the figures are factual, therefore this is what is means for the market and for buyers and sellers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The problem is: the two sets of data are quite different and, in some cases, contradictory.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">By the time figures have been published from five different sources - the ABS, the REIA, SQM Research, Domain and the ever-present but often-puzzling CoreLogic are regularly featured - consumers who have been absorbing all the data will be massively confused and terribly misinformed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s rare for all sources to agree on how much city markets are rising or falling - or, indeed, <strong>whether </strong>markets are rising or falling.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">According to CoreLogic’s latest data, Melbourne house prices are lower than 12 months ago - but both the ABS and SQM Research disagree. They both have Melbourne about 3% higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s a similar situation with Adelaide: SQM says the Adelaide housing market is down a little, but the ABS and CoreLogic says it’s risen marginally.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">All three sources believe the Hobart market has risen in the past year, but there is considerable disagreement on how much: CoreLogic says 10.7%, the ABS 15.5% but SQM claims it’s only 6.4%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There’s a substantial difference there: SQM says there’s only moderate growth in the Tasmanian capital but the official government source, the ABS, portrays a boom market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic tells us the Perth housing market is still in the negative but SQM claims that the downturn is over and prices have started to rise again.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Canberra is either the strongest capital city market in the nation, up 10.4% in the annual terms, or it’s rising only moderately at 2% or 3% - depending on whose figures you believe.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">SQM says the average scenario across the eight capital cities is an annual rise of 2.6%, but the ABS says there’s been no meaningful change, while CoreLogic says the national market is down 2%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Newspaper headlines keep telling that prices are falling across Australia, because they tend to publish the CoreLogic figures, but both the ABS and SQM disagree.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Both those sources have prices higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities, and SQM has the national average up 2.6%, but you get quite a different conclusion is you focus on the CoreLogic data.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The only matters on which the three major sources broadly agree is that the Darwin housing market is down about 4% and that the Brisbane house market is up by 1% or 2%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The message for consumers is: don’t take price data published by media too seriously - and don’t base big financial decisions on the published data.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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How to analyze city property price data: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder 

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here’s the hardest thing for real estate consumers doing research: who do you believe?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s hard to know who’s worth listening to and who is not. There are so many people pumping out press releases, writing commentary pieces and pontificating on television about our housing markets – and only a small fraction of this mass of white noise is worthy of your attention.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But there are markers which expose the pretenders – clues which allows you to separate the genuine experts.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here’s how to identify the pontificators you should ignore:-</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>1. They discuss Australian real estate as a single market</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg exposed himself as a pretender in a recent column published in The Australian. His opening paragraph stated, as a fact: “</span><span class="s2">Prices in our major capital cities have fallen for 12 consecutive months …”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">In doing so, one of our most senior federal politicians perpetuated one of the worst pieces of misinformation currently out there.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">Frydenburg’s statement is outrageous misinformation. One source that is often quoted, CoreLogic, has the average result for the eight capital cities as a negative figure, but at the same time records that nine of the 14 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and six regional areas) have prices higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">Other research sources have different figures. SQM Research, for example, records the national average results as a 1.7 percent rise in annual terms, while the latest ABS figures record quarterly price rises in five of the eight capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">So the claim that prices have been falling everywhere for 12 months is unsupported by any of the research evidence. The Federal Treasurer is simply parroting misleading media headlines.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But Frydenberg is not alone in his ignorance. Indeed, he has lots of company, when it comes to extrapolating the Sydney/Melbourne situation into a national downturn. Economists, in particular, are prone to misinforming Australians by discussing the nation as a single market and often getting their analysis wrong by generalising about prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’d all be better off if they simply shut up.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Contrast that with these recent comments from someone with real credentials, veteran adviser and commentator Noel Whittaker:</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">“The problem is that most media commentary focuses on that elusive animal they call the ‘property market’. We might be told that Australian property is overheated, or that the property market has fallen by 5.6 per cent in the last year (in Sydney), or that Perth values have fallen by 12.6 per cent after peaking in 2014.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">“But the fact is there is no such a thing as a single property market – not for Australia, not even for a single capital city – there are myriad property markets all doing their own thing. How can you compare a townhouse in Cairns with a mansion in Point Piper? All over Australia some markets may be rising, other markets may be falling, and some may be flat.”</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">Whittaker has encapsulated exactly how I see it.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">Next time you hear/read a commentator discussing “the Australian property market” or claiming that “Australian house prices have fallen 5 percent”, turn the page or change channels because the talking head/writer is a charlatan pretending to be an expert.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>2. They’re not real estate specialists</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The problem with Josh Frydenberg is that, while he may prove to be a capable Treasurer, he’s not a real estate expert. Residential property is not his specialty.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is the core problem with many of the prolific pontificators. Economists frequently make the mistake of thinking they can extrapolate their financial knowledge and economic theories to the real estate market. After 35 years as a real estate specialist, I’m still waiting to encounter an economist who understands the peculiar dynamics of real estate markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Last week I wrote about my Top 20 Worst Predictions About Australian Real Estate. Most of the people who made that list by getting their predictions horribly wrong were economists who strayed outside their area of speciality.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">True real estate experts who are worthy of your attention are those who are genuine specialists for whom researching markets is a daily routine. They’re also people who don’t treat real estate data as a vehicle for free publicity, but as a means to inform the public by presenting well-considered and balanced analysis.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">They include people like Louis Christopher of SQM Research and Simon Pressley of Propertyology. These are genuine experts who specialise in residential property. I don’t suggest they’re right about everything but they have earned the right to be heard by being real, independent, devoted experts.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>3. They believe it’s all about interest rates</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Most of the pretenders talk about the level of interest rates as the prime determinant of real estate markets and their cycles.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Ask your average economist why Sydney boomed and they’ll tell you it was “record low interest rates”.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is a ridiculous for several reasons. If the level of interest rates was the catalyst, why no boom in Brisbane? Or Adelaide, Canberra and most of regional Australia. Why have prices fallen in Perth and Darwin during this period of record low rates?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s false logic to assume, as many economists do, that low rates = boom and rising rates = downturn. The two big nationwide property booms of the past 30 years (late Eighties and early Noughties) both occurred during periods of high and rising interest rates.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The end of the Sydney/Melbourne booms occurred with interest rates still at these very low levels.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The profile of the person you should ignore is an economist who rants about “the Australian property market” in the context of national factors like interest rates and APRA decisions – and generally tends to feel that everything that happens in real estate markets is an outrage because it doesn’t fit with their economic models of what prices should do and where values should be.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The genuine expert will discuss individual markets, include different sub-markets within each of our major cities, and will understand the fundamental importance of the underlying local economies, influenced by population trends, infrastructure spending, jobs creation and supply-demand factors.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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