<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Brisbane's once-rampant apartment construction has now righted itself, and indeed median unit prices were up a fraction over the past year in the Queensland capital. </p>
<div id="post-body-1517642067810614857" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Victoria's apartment construction on the other hand has exploded to a record high (as expected from leading indicators), with the value of work done an astronomical 416 per cent higher than a decade earlier in chain volume measures terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney doesn't build so many houses, so a lot of activity is expected, but for Melbourne this is a boom-and-a-half!</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j-L_Si8xu3M/W3zV5ZRFWuI/AAAAAAAArog/JQ9WfQ2ltJABfVf3KSePDeXcpAOZ8GZEQCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j-L_Si8xu3M/W3zV5ZRFWuI/AAAAAAAArog/JQ9WfQ2ltJABfVf3KSePDeXcpAOZ8GZEQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1361"></a></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<br>It's an everything boom for Victorian construction with public and engineering works also going on a tear. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland engineering construction is also finally on the rise again after the state's multi-year downturn. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hFMjIc58GKQ/W3zV5oAN67I/AAAAAAAArok/mtjusxcoA6AQzd36njWtlrRemzlXTHvYQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hFMjIc58GKQ/W3zV5oAN67I/AAAAAAAArok/mtjusxcoA6AQzd36njWtlrRemzlXTHvYQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1368"></a></div>
<br><div>Adding in detached housing construction, Victoria's construction super-boom over 16 consecutive quarters and counting helped to increase total work done nationally in the second quarter by 1.6 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Eight consecutive quarterly increases in South Australia have also helped to offset the resources and housing construction weakness in Western Australia.<br><br>Construction work in New South Wales is set to top out now as apartment starts decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bkIHZFhTWcQ/W3zV5bE5mEI/AAAAAAAAroo/spw4riVZh3gpMf1FKh89PGOaA16E0CoqACLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bkIHZFhTWcQ/W3zV5bE5mEI/AAAAAAAAroo/spw4riVZh3gpMf1FKh89PGOaA16E0CoqACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1371"></a></div>
<br><div><strong>Job ads stalling</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news skilled job vacancies were up by 4.7 per cent from a year earlier to be 30.5 per cent above the October 2013 nadir in July 2018, according to the latest Department of Employment figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The seasonally adjusted monthly result was up just a notch following three consecutive declines. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly Victoria scored well here too, with falling unemployment looking like a shoo-in for Melbourne. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oDN5Lkggpdk/W3zV6M2hRaI/AAAAAAAAros/hdUwylmO0ccmBenJN0Gi8BlEILu59fHKQCLcBGAs/s1600/DoE.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oDN5Lkggpdk/W3zV6M2hRaI/AAAAAAAAros/hdUwylmO0ccmBenJN0Gi8BlEILu59fHKQCLcBGAs/s640/DoE.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1374"></a></div>
<br><div>In Western Australia vacancies were up 16.3 per cent over the past year, pointing to brighter days ahead across the Nullarbor.<br><br>Nationally, though, the growth in job ads seems to have stalled, with an election to follow - and that rarely inspires confidence in employers.</div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Victoria's everything boom: Pete Wargent

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<p><em>“There’s lots of companies that are just wanting to make money. They basically just tell you whatever’s on their books is the right thing to buy. So, it’s hard to find someone you can trust. </em></p>
<p><em>“What we liked about Ironfish is that they’re a company that educates and takes on board your whole financial situation and goals, not just your ability to access funds to purchase property. There’s heaps of events and education sessions that help improve your general financial IQ as well.” </em></p>
<h4>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/chris-cindy-5-e1531102841752-300x244.jpg" alt=""> </h4>
<h4>CASE IN PROFILE</h4>
<ul>
<li>Brisbane based medical specialists</li>
<li>Experienced investors who were lacking a clear goal</li>
<li>Purchased 3 properties with Ironfish</li>
<li>9 investment properties in total</li>
</ul>
<h2>Not really ‘property investors’</h2>
<p>Chris and Cindy Aubrey are Surgical Assistants working in multiple private hospitals in Brisbane. Originally from far north Queensland, Chris and Cindy moved to Brisbane for work, and have a young family of 2 kids, aged 2 and 4. Prior to investing with Ironfish, they already owned 4 investment properties which are scattered around Queensland, Western Australia and New South Wales, along with a Victorian property in their SMSF.</p>
<p>“We wouldn’t have called ourselves ‘property investors’ though. We had a couple of investment properties because we didn’t know what else to do with our money and we thought property was a good vehicle!</p>
<p>“After investing with Ironfish we really started to look into financial education, and at that point get into property investment a little bit more as a passion and with a clear goal.”</p>
<h2>Finding someone you can trust</h2>
<p>Apart from 2 out of their 9 properties, Chris and Cindy’s investments were purchased through a company. Chris and Cindy’s main challenge before investing with us, was<a href="http://www.ironfish.com.au/blog/2018/02/07/cancelled-contract-another-property-investment-company-went-ironfish-instead/" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>finding a company they could trust</a>.</p>
<p>“We’ve had experiences with other property companies where they’ve sold us a property and left us. With Ironfish, we don’t feel like we’ve just been ‘sold to’. We hear from our strategist Linna regularly, not only to help us review our current portfolio but also to invite us to<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.ironfish.com.au/seminars/" target="_blank">events and education sessions</a>. There’s always lots to learn.”</p>
<h2>Knowing what you want</h2>
<p>Chris and Cindy had a chat with our Brisbane based strategist, Linna Reakes, who listened to what they wanted to achieve and also invited them to come along to some Ironfish events and property investment seminars.</p>
<p>“We’ve been to a few events and they’re really good, especially Joseph. He’s a great speaker. What we got out of those events was that it<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.ironfish.com.au/blog/2018/02/23/secret-success-everybody-overlooks/" target="_blank">starts with the mindset</a>, it starts with goal setting – which is not what we did initially in our property journey. We leapt into it without knowing what we wanted out of it. Now we have a clear goal; we are aiming to replace enough of our income so we don’t have to work so hard and can spend more time with the kids while they’re still young.”</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/chris-cindy-2-1024x683.jpg" alt=""></p>
<h2>Property selection</h2>
<p>Chris and Cindy were very specific about what types of property they were targeting when they talked to Linna.</p>
<p>“We told Linna we were looking for house &amp; land, and she helped us acquire a package located in<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.ironfish.com.au/blog/2018/07/04/record-numbers-looking-for-homes-in-queensland/" target="_blank">South East Queensland</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>which met our criteria. We also purchased 2 other units in Brisbane, which provide good cash flow and are good quality builds that are going to hold their value. Credit to Linna to understanding what we wanted and showing us what she thought was suitable.”</p>
<h2>The importance of follow up</h2>
<p>While the performance of the property is important, Chris and Cindy agree that ongoing service and support is what makes a real difference.</p>
<p>“We’ve had good and bad experiences with different companies. We can look back and see which properties have done well and which haven’t; that weighs in on deciding if we’re going to invest with them again.</p>
<p>“But it’s also about communication and follow up. Companies mostly make their money on the event of a sale, but if they have good after-sale service we’re more likely to go with them again. And that’s what we appreciate about Ironfish. There’s good follow up; Linna is great, and the property management service has been good, no problems at all. We’re very happy with the care we’re getting as customers and in our portfolio management. And now that we’ve built a decent portfolio, we’re looking at managing that over the long term.”</p>
<h2>Chris and Cindy’s property investment tips:</h2>
<ol>
<li>
<strong>Focus on your own education.</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We go to seminars, we have mentors and ask lots of questions. Don’t pay attention to mainstream media, look for reports from reputable sources.</li>
<li>
<strong>Get yourself a good team of people.</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We have a financial planner, accountant and mortgage broker – this is something we picked up from Ironfish. In the past 5 years, we’ve changed our accountant and planner to find people who understand and help us achieve our goals. That’s made a huge difference. For example, from an accounting perspective in structuring your properties: you may pay for advice upfront, but it could save you thousands down the track.</li>
<li>
<strong>Start with ‘why?’</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Set a goal for why you’re investing in property and what you want to achieve out of it before you leap in.</li>
<li>
<strong>Consider the benefits of investing in new or off-the-plan property.</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We initially just fell into this type of investment, but we’ve since learned about the tax depreciation advantages. And also, depending on the area, new home starts are a sign of potential growth in an area. We now have 9 properties, half house &amp; land, half apartment. Most are new properties.</li>
<li>
<strong>Look at each of your properties as a business.</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We haven’t even set foot in any of our investment properties. We’ve got friends who’ve not bought based on a property having a colour of paint they didn’t like. Don’t let emotion sway your decision making. Let the numbers make the decision.</li>
</ol>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Dr Chris and Cindy Aubrey - surgical assistants and Ironfish customers

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the past few weeks three of the four major banks in Australia have announced that they are going to be increasing variable mortgage rates. </p>
<p>While there has been a lot of adjustments to mortgage rates over recent years, the big difference with the latest announcement is that the higher mortgage rates are going to affect owner occupiers. </p>
<p>Most of the previous mortgage rate changes announced by the major banks have only affected investors and those with interest only mortgages.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/7/KUSH1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/7/KUSH1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Many of the smaller regional banks have pushed mortgage rates for owner occupiers higher over recent months citing higher short-term funding costs. </p>
<p>Although until now the major banks had resisted making an adjustment to mortgage rates it seems they too have had their hand forced by higher funding costs.  The above chart highlights the cost of short-term funding to banks (the three-month bank bill swap rate) and it clearly shows that the cost of short-term funding has increased.  It currently sits at 2.26% compared to the official cash rate which remains unchanged at 1.5% since August 2016.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/7/KUSH2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/7/KUSH2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Short-term funding costs have certainly risen recently however, it is also interesting to look at the composition of funding to Australia’s banks. Short-term funding is not an insignificant part of the funding profile (slightly more than 20%), although the share of funding from short-term debt has fallen over recent years as domestic deposits have increased. </p>
<p>There are other ways to handle higher short-term funding costs rather than lifting mortgage rates but that would likely mean cutting dividends which lenders seem reluctant to want to do or reducing deposit interest rates which would likely see a further reduction in the primary funding source: domestic deposits.</p>
<p>From a housing market perspective the timing of the announcement of higher interest rates is an interesting one. </p>
<p>After many years of strong value growth, Sydney and Melbourne housing is now well embedded in a downturn.  Tighter credit conditions, higher mortgage rates for investors and interest-only borrowers and reduced affordability have already led to the falls of -5.6% from the peak in Sydney and -3.5% from their peak in Melbourne.  This has occurred so far without higher interest rates for owner occupiers paying off principal and interest however, that is about to change.</p>
<p>The timing of the hikes to mortgage rates is also interesting in that it has been announced right at the beginning of the Spring Selling Season.  Although spring, in my mind and according to the data, is somewhat overhyped as a good time to sell, more stock does typically become available for sale over the period and buying activity typically increases. </p>
<p>The other usual occurrence at the beginning of spring is that lenders offer enticing mortgage rates to the market to jostle for market share.  By contrast this year, major lenders are announcing higher mortgage rates.</p>
<p>Higher mortgage rates have already driven a slowing of demand for investors over the past year.  Although the magnitude of the mortgage rate increases announced is fairly small (around 15 basis points by each lender) it is likely that the higher mortgage rates will impact on housing market sentiment. Furthermore it may end up further exacerbating the declines which are already occurring in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin and the slowing of value growth being experienced elsewhere. </p>
<p>Overall this move seems likely to lead to a continuation of the currently weak housing market conditions over the coming months and may weaken the market further.  From the lenders perspective, clearly they realise that the housing downturn is becoming entrenched (particularly in Perth and Darwin, but more recently in Sydney and Melbourne) and they are doing what they can to maintain profitability in the face of lower mortgage volumes.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is a property research analyst for CoreLogic</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Higher mortgage rates likely to prolong the housing market weakness: CoreLogic

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over the weekend I spoke to crowds of people with their heads crammed full of media misinformation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The number one point of discussion was the general perception that prices are falling across Australia, thanks to simplistic analysis and inaccurate headlines.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In reality, the latest monthly price report from CoreLogic (the source of most articles and headlines on prices) tells us that there are 14 major market jurisdictions across Australia (eight capital cities and six state regional areas) – and nine of the 14 have price levels higher than last year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I see plenty of potential for buyers to find locations where prices are rising or are on the cusp of a growth phase.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">How do you find them? Here are four markers that provides clues to future price growth …</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>1 The underlying local economy is rising</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In 2011 when the government changed in New South Wales, the state ranked as one of the weakest economies in the nation, according to CommSec’s <em>State of the States</em> report.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But with proactive governance and increased spending on infrastructure, NSW rose steadily up the rankings to eventually become the nation’s strongest economy. Out of that came the Sydney property boom.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There was a similar story in Tasmania. Traditionally Tasmania has ranked as our weakest economy but, following a major change of state government in 2014, the state rose up the national rankings, eventually reaching its current position of No.4, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The marked improvement in the state economy gave rise to the growth in the Hobart property market, now the strongest among the capital cities for price growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The linkages between capital city property markets and the underlying state economy are undeniably strong.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So where does this marker point us for the next growth markets among the capital cities?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are definite signs of improvement in the economies of Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This, along with other indicators, suggests better growth in the property markets in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>2 Demand has risen but prices haven’t moved much - yet</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Three capital cities stand out for this reason: Perth, Canberra and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There has been significant uplift in sales activity in Perth, as the underlying state economy improves.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Canberra sales activity is rising steadily also, and Adelaide currently has one of the most active markets among the capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When demand rises, prices tend to follow. One major forecaster has tipped Canberra to lead on price growth in the next 2-3 years. I think the national capital will definitely be a contender, but so will Perth and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>3 Rents have risen strongly, but prices haven’t moved much - yet</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Before Sydney prices started to rise, we saw a couple of years of strong growth in residential rentals. Before house prices started to move in Hobart, it was noticeable that vacancies were extremely low and that rents were rising. Prices followed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So where are those conditions most evident right now in capital city Australia? The clear answer is Canberra, where vacancies are below 1% and residential rents have risen strongly in the past year or so, according to SQM Research data.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’re also observing significant improvement in the Perth rental market, with vacancies declining and leasing activity rising.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>4 Prices overall haven’t moved much, but the Top End has had strong growth</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sydney’s growth cycle started at the Top End and rippled out over time. In Melbourne, the up-cycle began in the millionaire suburbs and gravitated from there to the middle ring and more recently to the outer ring suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is a common pattern in property cycles. And right now there are three capital cities where the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit price growth in the past year, but the market overall has not had big price growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Those three cities are Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>Where do all these markers point us?</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Put all those indicators together and they point to strong price growth in the near future in three capital cities:</span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Canberra: the underlying economy ranks third in the nation, it has the highest average incomes and lowest unemployment, vacancies are low and the rental growth is the highest in the nation, sales activity (demand) is increasing and the Top End prices have risen strongly.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Adelaide: the state economy is improving and has big growth drivers in the system, vacancies are below average, demand is rising, yields are strong and Top End prices have risen at above-average rates.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Perth: the state economy is recovering, vacancies are falling, rental activity is rising, sales activity is steadily improving and Top End prices have recorded double-digit annual growth in many of the millionaire suburbs.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Brisbane will get on board if the signals of an improving state economy and the promise of big spending on infrastructure actually come to pass.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Four key markers for property investors of future price growth

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<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
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Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<div id="post-body-5825783051489187345" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The most timely JLL report showed that the residential construction pipeline is now shrinking fast on tighter lending criteria for developers and investors.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In time this will inevitably lead to tighter rental vacancies, especially as we head into and beyond the traditionally busy Christmas and New Year period, with more Airbnb offerings also set to eat into the rental market through this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the greatest volume of apartment construction through this cycle Sydney and Melbourne will be the last markets to know about the tightening (although when D-Day does come the presently record high population growth in these cities means that the tightening of rentals market may also be felt most acutely).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're already hearing more and more stories of failed or delayed settlements, so the slowing in supply could come about sooner than expected. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The initial impacts will be felt in Hobart, Canberra, Adelaide, and an array of rental markets around regional Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, SQM's latest figures showed that rental vacancies had already fallen to the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/lowest-vacancies-since-early-2014" target="_blank">lowest level since 2014</a> by the end of last month, so the process is well underway.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The HIA forecast today in its National Outlook that housing starts will fall by more than 50,000 from the peak, noting (or lamenting) that:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'APRA’s restrictions were designed to curb high risk lending practices but we are now seeing ordinary home buyers experience delays and constraints in accessing finance.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxY4L0r9wvY/W_H50SPIkUI/AAAAAAAAs8A/nEtQ0ROLbqw-nzYBU5UQ6h7qiDj0VmVbACLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wxY4L0r9wvY/W_H50SPIkUI/AAAAAAAAs8A/nEtQ0ROLbqw-nzYBU5UQ6h7qiDj0VmVbACLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="320" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1454"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Note that all of this is before Labor's proposed changes to negative gearing come about, which were originally designed to slow investor activity in the raging hot markets of 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Arrivals hit record high</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its arrivals and departures figures for the month of September 2018 this morning, which showed permanent and long-term arrivals rising to 823,090 over the year to September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents an increase of 6 per cent from a year earlier, and is the highest figure on record for Australia (the equivalent figure around the time of the Sydney Olympics was about 300,000, which is a measure of just how popular migration to Australia has become).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1364"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Short-term arrivals into Australia have also boomed in recent years, rising to a record high of 9.2 million in September. </div>
<div>
<br>Interestingly the growth is no longer being driven by Chinese tourists, with a range of other countries picking up the mantle, including India.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
<br>Education arrivals were also up by 5 per cent from a year earlier to a record high of 596,400.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s1600/Education.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s640/Education.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1357"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Finally, at the state level short-term arrivals were up by 4 per cent in New South Wales to 3.45 million for the year to September, but growth was stronger in Victoria (up 8 per cent to 2.3 million) and Queensland (up 8 per cent to 2 million).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1418"></a><br><br>Queensland was a little flattered here by the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/04/gc2018hockey" target="_blank">Commonwealth Games XXI</a>, held at Gold Coast earlier this year...although that all seems like a long time ago now!<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Both short- and long-term arrivals hit record highs for the year to September 2018, with accordingly significant implications for housing market demand over the year(s) ahead.<br><br>Australia's visa programme is tilted towards those aged under 30, so there are dramatic implications for rental market demand here as construction slows, as well as pent up demand for entrants to home ownership over the years ahead. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Rental vacancies to tighten: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia abounds with locations where buyer activity is rising and there is strong potential for prices to rise, notwithstanding the general impression created by national media.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The latest edition of the Price Predictor Index by Hotspotting has identified good quantities of growth markets within our smaller capital cities and, in particular, within the many solid regional markets that exist, especially on the eastern side of the nation.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The very solid Adelaide market has large numbers of locations with rising demand, as does the recovering Perth market and the always-steady Canberra market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional New South Wales, as I noted in an earlier column, has strong growth markets right across the state. In some, prices have already risen strongly in the past 6-12 months, while others have the potential for growth based on the current demand trends.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Victoria has delivered the strongest price growth anywhere in Australia in the past year, in terms of locations where median prices have increased more than 20 percent. Other markets are now emerging, based on the sales trends, with the potential to deliver big growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Tasmania has numerous growth markets, led by Launceston, and collectively has provided some of the nation’s strongest price growth recently, based on CoreLogic figures.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Regional Queensland is also sparking to life, led by double-digit growth in many of the suburbs of the Sunshine Coast and by recovering Central Queensland markets such as Mackay.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I regard The Price Predictor Index as an important report because it scrutinizes one of the key parts of the property price equation – demand - by charting the number of sales occurring in every suburb and town in Australia.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The surveys are conducted every three months to identify patterns of demand – whether demand is rising in key markets, or whether demand is falling – or, as is the case in many locations, whether there’s a pattern of consistent and steady demand, quarter by quarter, over time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The basic premise of this methodology is that prices respond to demand patterns – if demand is rising over time, prices will rise (all other things being equal).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If demand is falling, price growth will slow down, and may eventually stop, and – in some instances – prices will fall.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The key factor here is that there’s a time lag. Prices don’t react instantaneously to changes in demand. It takes time for the changing demand patterns, whether up or down, to work through into property markets and create reactions in prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Demand in the Sydney was steadily falling away in 2016 but it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw the first clear signs of a slow-down in price growth, looking across all the data from multiple research sources.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And then in 2018, as the slow-down in demand continued, we saw prices falling in some parts of the Sydney market, although in most cases the decreases have been quite moderate.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Right now, prices are rising strongly in other Australian markets, including in Hobart; in the million-dollar suburbs of Canberra, Adelaide and Perth; and in numerous locations in regional Australia. In each case, these price rises were preceded by increases in sales volumes – in other words, increases in demand.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Demand in smaller capitals and solid regional markets will lead to property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Nationally dwelling values as at October 2018 have fallen by - 3.5% from their peak with much larger falls in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.</span></p>
<p><span>The reality is that there has been very little improvement in housing affordability; Sydney and Melbourne in particular are a little cheaper, but remain substantially more expensive than other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><span>Although house values in Sydney are now -9.3% lower than their peak, the cost of a house in Sydney is still substantially higher than elsewhere at $960,344. In fact, a house in Sydney is now more than double the median value of an Adelaide and Hobart house.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%201.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Looking </span><span>at house values over time is interesting.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Sydney has consistently </span><span>been the most expensive capital city housing market however, although at one point, Perth was slightly more expensive (after Perth values surged more than 40% annually at one point in 2006 on the back the resources boom). Relative to other capital cities the Sydney premium is recorded at: 23% for Melbourne, 76% for Brisbane, 105% for Adelaide, 100% for Perth, 101% for Hobart, 88% for Darwin and 44% for Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge;</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Despite recent value falls in Sydney</span><span>, the value gap has not been at such wide levels as it is currently for most cities since late 2003/early 2004. The one exception is the value differential for Melbourne, which over recent years has been substantially narrower than previously.</span></p>
<p><span>Similarly, the Melbourne value gap </span><span>compared to other capital cities (except Sydney) is the widest it has ever been. Historically, the value of houses in Melbourne have been quite similar to those in Brisbane and Perth however, this is no longer the case.</span></p>
<p><span>For units, the story is a similar one</span><span>. </span><span>Sydney’s </span><span>median unit value at ($740,394) remains more expensive than median house values in all other capital cities except for Sydney and Melbourne. Similarly, the median Melbourne unit value ($555,517) remains higher than median house values in all other capital cities except Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>Over time, unit values have saw a consistent trend whereby Sydney has been more expensive than the other capital cities. </span></p>
<p><span>The current premium for Sydney compared to other capital cities sits at: 32% for Melbourne, 90% for Brisbane, 123% for Adelaide, 94% for Perth, 95% for Hobart, 134% for Darwin and 67% for Canberra. </span></p>
<p><span>As was the case for houses, the differential has not been as large as it is currently between Sydney and these other capital cities since 2003/2004. Melbourne was exception where the differential has been reducing over recent years.</span></p>
<p><span>With house and unit values falling in Sydney and Melbourne, Mr Kusher expects the premiums to reduce further over the coming months and year(s).</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/22/corelogic%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/22/corelogic%204.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Source: CoreLogic</p>
<p><span>While </span><span>this may be the case, any significant reduction in housing costs back to historic premiums would take a long period of declines or flat housing market conditions. Furthermore, it seems unlikely, given the economic strength and populations of Sydney and Melbourne that the value premium of housing in these two cities will revert to historical levels.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is a property research analyst for CoreLogic</em></span></p>
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Very little improvement in housing affordability despite dwelling decline

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVATION</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a happy new year, and all that, but not so much for bankers, with lending growth continuing to flounder. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's latest figures showed credit growth slowing to 4.4 per cent, down from 5.2 per cent a year earlier, and broad money growth at fresh quarter-century lows of just 1.86 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1I8fNGCXk6k/XCqUFoyKJPI/AAAAAAAAtsc/xXakammeXQAlHhvGQp9I_UB9FnMLp02cwCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1383"></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>It was noteworthy to hear last week that the RBA has been watching the gross household debt-to-income ratio as a main point of concern, especially as <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/12/debt-ratio-revised-lower-now-falling" target="_blank">this ratio has already peaked and is now falling</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The distinction from <em>housing</em> debt-to-income was quite interesting (to me at least) as the lines between housing, small business, and personal credit are blurred at best, with small business loans often secured against a home, and so on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the chart below, changes in the direction of housing credit growth have tended to lead changes in dwelling price growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can also see that no such change had occurred by the end of November 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Dqi23bcB6-Q/XCqUHZwLEgI/AAAAAAAAtsg/RKoxndSCpVUL5OIvz-ZGLEb4G8XspSL5gCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A simple credit impulse model as favoured by ANZ economists suggests that capital city (i.e. Sydney and Melbourne) dwelling price declines should moderate, although there are several factors unique to this cycle - not least the boom and bust in Chinese investors - that could throw the model a bit off course (this may have already happened to some extent since 2014). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hg19s7pQfzU/XCqUE6b5LmI/AAAAAAAAtsY/pvq8s6-v7MEhCHqgIJamHA7GeoF0vQUcQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1341"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Investor credit growth was already at the lowest level on record, and it fell to even lower levels last month, allowing APRA to remove another of its now-redundant arbitrary caps, this time on interest-only lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the enormous growth in the population aged 25 to 34 in particular, this is now a remarkably low level of growth in investor credit, even if it did follow on from a boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LmCPOkyIAMs/XCqUDn5r1zI/AAAAAAAAtsU/43fTNK6yncENxThK3etijkbED9oHjaPAgCLcBGAs/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1402"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Not surprisingly the growth in owner-occupier credit also declined for a ninth consecutive month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>CoreLogic will release its latest home value index for the month of December, and this will show significant declines for Sydney and Melbourne in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>In short, business credit was moderate, personal credit was negative, and housing credit has no pulse - let's hope that doesn't turn into a full-blown coronary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Happy New Year! </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.</em></div>
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2018 finishes with housing credit having no pulse: Pete Wargent

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<p>National residential listings declined 9.2% in December 2018 to 328,203 from 361,619 in November 2018, according to SQM Research.</p>
<p>It noted that the stock reduction in all cities was expected during the festive and summer break, however, the decline in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra were larger than expected.</p>
<p>Residential listings were down on November in Sydney 17.7%, Melbourne 17.2% and Canberra 15.5%.</p>
<p>Hobart recorded the smallest monthly decline at 5.8%.</p>
<p>But compared to a year earlier, national listings were up 2.8%, with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra’s year-on-year listings up the most - Melbourne up 25.4%, Canberra 19.3% and Sydney up 16.5%.</p>
<p>Hobart on the other hand experienced a yearly decline of 5.8%, with residential property listings dropping from 2,426 in December 2017 to 2,286 in December 2018.</p>
<p>Adelaide and Darwin also experienced yearly declines of sale listings at 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/SQM%20Table%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>(Source: SQM Research)</p>
<p>Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, said listings in December had some large falls however, let us keep in mind there was a surge in listings recorded in November and that December traditionally records a large fall in properties for sale as this is a holiday period.</p>
<p>“Our view remains in place that prices will likely fall in Sydney and Melbourne over the course of 2019.</p>
<p>"We note however that Melbourne house asking prices increased during the month by 0.3% as did unit asking prices in Sydney 0.7%.</p>
<p>"I also note that national listings are now only up 2.8% for the year, indicating that regional centres may well have outperformed the major capital cities in 2018.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a></p>
<p>Asking prices were a different story as capital city asking prices rose 0.4% for units to $571,600 but declined 0.9% for houses to $924,500, for the month to 31 December 2018.</p>
<p>The largest monthly rise came from Canberra, where house asking prices rose 2.5%. However, Unit asking prices in Canberra declined by 1.1%.</p>
<p>Sydney recorded the highest increase in Unit asking prices of 0.7% but the largest decline in House asking prices of 1.6% over the month.</p>
<p>Year-on-year asking price gains were the strongest in Canberra for both houses and units, with house prices rising by 3.4% and Units by 7.9%.</p>
<p>Year-on-year prices fell in Sydney, Darwin and Perth for both houses and units.</p>
<p>Brisbane and Hobart recorded increases in house asking prices but unit prices declined year-on-year.</p>
<p>This was reversed in Adelaide and Melbourne which recorded decreases in house prices but increases in unit asking prices over the year.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/8/SQM%20Table%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
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