<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD Group</a> has set a new residential price record in Queensland with the $30 million sale of the penthouse at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-burleigh-88-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">ONE Burleigh</a> development in Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>The sale equates to around $37,500 per sqm.</p>

<p>The two-level, 800 sqm penthouse, featuring five bedrooms, five bathrooms, five car spaces, and a private infinity pool overlooking the Pacific Ocean, was acquired by a Gold Coast-based entrepreneur, highlighting continued demand for ultra-premium beachfront product.</p>

<p>Selling agent Freddie Tehle of PRD Burleigh Heads said the result reflects tightening supply of high-quality, large-format apartments in Burleigh.</p>

<p>“There’s very limited opportunity to secure this level of scale and absolute beachfront position in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Burleigh Heads</a>,” Tehle said.</p>

<p>“Buyers are increasingly seeking apartments that genuinely replace a standalone home, and this penthouse delivers that with its size, privacy, and direct ocean frontage.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323057]</p>

<p>The sale comes as construction progresses on ONE Burleigh, a boutique development of 17 full-floor residences at 88 The Esplanade, scheduled for completion in early 2027.</p>

<p>Developed by MAYD Group and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/sici-design">Sici Design</a>, the project has been positioned as a collection of house-sized beachfront apartments, each occupying an entire floor with around 381 sqm of internal and external living space.</p>

<p>When construction commenced, MAYD director Todd Mould pointed to the long-term resilience of premium coastal real estate as a key driver behind the project.</p>

<p>“Real estate, particularly at the premium end, remains one of the most resilient and proven long-term investment avenues,” Mould said.</p>

<p>“Our ambition is that anyone who buys a MAYD-built product can genuinely feel the care, craftsmanship and commitment we bring to every detail.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323055]</p>

<p>Each residence has been configured with four bedrooms, multiple living zones, a private office, and expansive ocean-facing terraces. Interiors draw on a restrained material palette, including travertine stone, timber joinery, and integrated premium appliances.</p>

<p>Interior designer Sici Design said the approach was to reflect the project’s coastal setting through both materiality and spatial planning.</p>

<p>“ONE Burleigh is our vision of luxury living, designed to bring the essence of Burleigh Heads' vibrant coastal beauty into an unparalleled residential experience.”</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of wellness-focused amenities, including pools, sauna facilities, and dedicated relaxation spaces, reflecting a broader shift toward lifestyle-driven apartment design on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146358 project_image_fid=323052]</p>

<p>The project occupies a southern Esplanade site with uninterrupted beachfront frontage, an increasingly rare offering in Burleigh Heads, free from the Norfolk Pines that line much of the coastline and often limit direct ocean outlook.</p>

<p>Mould said the design intent was to balance that outlook with a sense of retreat.</p>

<p>“Living at ONE Burleigh is about how your day naturally unfolds, morning light across the ocean, coffee on the balcony, and being in Burleigh but elevated above the noise.”</p>

<p>The result further reinforces Burleigh Heads’ emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held and supply-constrained beachfront markets, where boutique, owner-occupier-focused developments are increasingly setting new price benchmarks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146358]</p>


Joel Robinson

MAYD Group sets Queensland record with $30 million penthouse sale at ONE Burleigh in Burleigh Heads

<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<div>The days of the successful greedy vendor are almost done.</div>
<p>The five year surge in Sydney prices is now coming off, as the Reserve Bank wished.</p>
<p>The biggest gap I've seen between asking price and selling price was over 20 percent. They wanted $27 million and took $21 million in Sydney's pricey east.</p>
<p>Long after the ambitious public asking prices, the more sombre secret sales outcome becomes known.</p>
<p>Any neighbours up the street thinking of selling are then forced to come back in expectation. The new pricing mood becomes contagious.</p>
<p>There is nothing too distressing around pricing really for most sellers, although the emerging slowdown captures almost all, even thoughtful asking prices.</p>
<p>South Sydney Rabbitohs star George Burgess recently made a mild adjustment to the price hopes of his <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-chifley-126771326" target="_blank">Chifley offering</a> (above and below).</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/19/chifley2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Having initially sought $1.8 million, there's now guidance between $1,725,000 to $1,775,000, with Burgess and wife Joanne expecting a second child in August.</p>
<p>But first home buyers should pay extra careful attention to market conditions, not just the incentives on offer.</p>
<p>While the price declines may be minor, first home buyers ought be wary of over paying and potentially going straight into negative equity.</p>
<p>The weekend auction success rates that kicked off unexpectedly well with 70 percent selling, have weakened in the pre-Easter auction period with the clearance rate back in the 50s.</p>
<p>The market does seems set to continue to deteriorate further.</p>
<p>Most analysts tip the decline will be moderate, somewhere in the order of five to 10 percent over the next two or so years.</p>
<p>They don't see any trigger such as high unemployment that would escalate into more substantial price falls across all markets.</p>
<p>Certainly unexpected quick rate rises - rather than possibly a few extended over years - could be devastating for many households. </p>
<p>There are extreme calls such as the US forecaster Harry Dent who forecasts a halving in values.</p>
<p>But demand for property arising from population growth, arising both internally and from migration, is expected to provide a floor.</p>
<p>This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The Sydney property downturn starts with asking price mismatch

<html><body>
<div>The Department of Home Affairs released its latest pivot tables on temporary visas holders in Australia (with thanks to Henry Sherrell for highlighting). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the December quarter numbers tend to swing sharply higher due to fireworks on the harbour and all that jazz - to well above 2.2 million last year - the September figures make for interesting reading. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The stock data shows that temporary visa holders in Australia rose to 2.07 million by September 2017, well up from 1.96 million a year earlier and some 23 per cent higher than as at September 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That represents an extra 382,000 temporary visa holders in Australia from 5 years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubting the source of the boom, being the 50 per cent boost in student visas over the past half decade to well over ½ million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1371"></div>
<div>Also of interest to note: the number of bridging visas is now rising fast, implying a surge in the demand for permanent residency (PR) visa places from temporary visa holders.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These trends help to explain why the population of the largest capital cities has effectively been growing much more quickly than implied by the issuance of PR visas alone. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Student visa boom still underway: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>On the face of it a better result for retail trade in February 2018, with a +0.6 per cent increase in turnover, and the January result revised up slightly to +0.2 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Under the hood, though, this was another soft result, with department stores clearly under intense pressure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total retail turnover in February was $26.45 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, so only a marginal +0.2 per cent higher than we saw back in November when the i-Phone X was unleashed and Black Friday spiked the results.<br><br>And the February figures for Sydney and Melbourne would have been enhanced by Chinese Lunar New Year falling later this year than last.<br><br>You can click on the graphics to enlarge them. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1blDK0u9Io/WsQu3Q40fdI/AAAAAAAApPw/YCGR15IxNTEXBykTnejrt5DhEa_fx5vWACLcBGAs/s1600/RT1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1blDK0u9Io/WsQu3Q40fdI/AAAAAAAApPw/YCGR15IxNTEXBykTnejrt5DhEa_fx5vWACLcBGAs/s640/RT1.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1396"></a></div>
<div>Looking through the monthly noise, retail turnover in trend terms was a modest +2.7 per cent higher over the year. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s1600/RT2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s640/RT2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
<p>The monthly rebound in turnover was driven by New South Wales (+1.1 per cent) and Victoria (+1.1 per cent), offset by a decline in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent).  </p>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Amazon arrives</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures are of particular interest since the survey should include Amazon Australia sales.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's one thing we do know it's that there has been widespread industry discounting - indeed, you can take a walk around any shopping mall and see this for yourself.<br><br>We'll see this better in the quarterly results, which will shed more light on price inflation (deflation) versus volumes as a driver of retail turnover. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Price discounting in part helped to drive a +1.5 per cent rebound in department store turnover in the month, but this came off the back of a series of monthly declines, with turnover remaining well below the levels seen in October last year. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>The rolling annual trend numbers over the the longer term tell the story better - department stores have never faced such sustained pressure since the statistician began measuring numbers. </div>
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<p>Tellingly, online retail accounted for 5.1 per cent of total turnover in the month, up from 3.6 per cent only a year earlier, an alarming rate of increase from the perspective of traditional retailers. </p>
<div>Myer has been one high-profile casualty with its share price trading at around 36 cents (down from a float price of $4.10) but there are plenty of others...and more in the offing. </div>
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Department stores under intense pressure: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Headline: House prices fell in May. Alternative headline: House prices rose in May.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Which is right? Actually, both. Or, more correctly, it depends on whose figures you believe.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">CoreLogic records a 0.4% reduction in house prices (overall, the average across the nation) during May, but Louis Christopher’s SQM Research reports a 1.1% rise in house prices over the same period.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And when the latest figures from Domain and the ABS become available, they’ll have different numbers as well.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We could spend hours discussing why different sources produce different (and sometimes conflicting) results on what’s happening with property prices. But suffice to say that they all have their own methodologies and parameters – and what they’re attempting, to distil tens of thousands of sales in myriad locations into a single growth figure, is a tad challenging.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But, ultimately, it’s doesn’t matter whether CoreLogic is right or SQM is right. Essentially, they’re saying the same thing: property prices are remarkably stubborn in the face of major negative forces. As they so often are.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">House prices continue to defy the doomsday forecasters, many of them economists who refuse to let go of their flawed theories about how property prices SHOULD behave – and others among them opportunists who see potential to generate free publicity.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some headlines:</span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices to drop 20%: AMP Capital” – The Australian, 19 March.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices could drop by up to 20%, says UBS” – Financial Review, 18 March</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“Prices to plunge 30% as clearance rates fall off a cliff” – The Age, 8 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices will collapse, says UBS” – Financial Review, 2 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“Can’t rule out 30% fall in house prices, says SQM” – Financial Review, 7 April</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“House prices could dive 30%” – The Age, 27 April</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">For those who declare “but it’s early days”, it isn’t.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This pandemic shemozzle, in terms of its impact on Australian life, declared itself on 20 February when the share market had its first meltdown. We’ve already been through the worst of the health impacts and the toughest of the restrictions and now we’re emerging steadily from lockdown towards increasing levels of normality.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When the price data for March (showing growth in most markets) was published, many in mainstream media said: “Yeah, but wait to we get the April figures, then we’ll see the true impact of Covid-19.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When the April figures came out (again showing minor growth in most markets), we got the same reaction: “Yeah, but May will see prices nosediving.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Well, that didn’t happen either. The CoreLogic data showed that in May there was growth or no change in house prices in nine of the 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), with an overall result of -0.4%, while SQM reported a national rise of 1.1% and a capital city rise of 0.5%, with increases in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, now the standard line from failed forecasters seeking to justify their negative stance on property markets is this: “Yeah, prices are stable for now but in September when the stimulus runs out everything will fall off a cliff.”</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This comes direct from the kindergarten of real estate forecasting. It assumes that nothing will change over the next 3-4 months and that governments and lenders will recklessly turn off the tap without any regard to consequences.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It also assumes that it’s all about JobKeeper and mortgage holidays, and overlooks the importance of infrastructure spending, loans and grants to businesses, support measures for renters, ongoing government stimulus measures like the $25,000 grant to home builders and renovators, and a whole lot more.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia has done well in this crisis and continues to do so. And the future belongs to those who see opportunity rather than calamity.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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How true are real estate price fall headlines? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-2450267814035243586" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>There was a significant rebound in business confidence and conditions in May, albeit they still, of course, remain at historically weak levels:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business confidence jumped 20 points higher, but is still in negative territory, while business conditions improved by 10 points over the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Via the NAB Survey, <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>:</em></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A8DtJIwNCOM/Xt8jOdG5hVI/AAAAAAAA2OM/Ho9bYL4tHukFvsEFIsFTPJZ-uwa0HChfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Nab1.jpg" width="640" height="216" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<br><div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: NAB Survey</em></span></div>
<br><div>Well, it's a decent start, as restrictions are eased.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been some spectacular results for Australia in respect of COVID-19 today, with only two new confirmed cases, with two cases remaining in ICU:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e6ppm6ZYJwg/Xt8k9UNyS3I/AAAAAAAA2Oc/LoA_SuoFzrcH8CUFePxERXc0g-K9GuVBACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1426"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Both of the new confirmed cases were returned overseas travellers, held in New South Wales quarantine:</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1CquvNlMRtE/Xt8lM9RQcpI/AAAAAAAA2Og/392PQbZziKAnh-d5STbyM0vBC3als33LgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/cv2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1412"></div>
<br>New Zealand is also now officially COVID-19 free.</div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Business conditions begin to claw back: Pete Wargent

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<p>Property investors will never let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude. </p>
<p>Clinging to cherished beliefs, most of them based on myth and misinformation, is the hallmark of the typical Aussie wannabe investor - and the reason why most of them get ordinary results from buying at the wrong time in the wrong place.</p>
<p>Against that background, I find that the hardest sell in Australian real estate is trying to convince people that Adelaide is not only worth considering, but is one of the very best locations to target for a combination of affordability, value for money, good yields and potential for capital growth. And that regional South Australia has been one of the nation’s best performers in recent times. </p>
<p>I will, nevertheless, persist.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The standout consistency of Adelaide real estate is demonstrated by our latest (Winter 2020) survey of sales activity and prices. The city’s resistance to the forces of Covid-19 is shown by the number of suburbs with sales growth and the number with annual uplift in their median prices.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The Winter 2020 survey has identified 51 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales activity. This compares with just 32 in the much larger city of Melbourne.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In terms of price performance, almost two-thirds of Adelaide suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, almost identical to the result three months ago in our Autumn 2020 survey. Once again, Adelaide is delivering on its reputation for steadiness.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Here’s what I said about Adelaide in the Price Predictor Index published nine months ago: “Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia. Its consistency of sales performance is remarkable and two-thirds of its suburbs have had price growth in the past year, led by double-digit rises in top-end markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">“Adelaide is undoubtedly Australia’s most under-rated market. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">“In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Nothing has changed, despite the negative forces of Covid-19. Adelaide and South Australia have handled the pandemic better, in health terms, than any other state and its economy has showed resilience. This has been reflected in its real estate markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">One of the strengths of the Adelaide market is that the prosperity is widely spread across the metropolitan area. There are 10 Local Government Areas with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that over 60% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Regional South Australia is the most surprising market in the nation. There is uplift in sales activity in most locations across the state and the vast majority of regional towns have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, with most up by more than 5%.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">This market has been a consistently strong performer in recent years but is unlikely to ever receive any media recognition for it.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In the Spring 2019 edition of <em>The Price Predictor Index</em> nine months ago, we commented: “It would surprise many property observers to learn that three-quarters of the towns in Regional South Australia have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, including some which have achieved double-digit increases.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">In the Autumn 2020 edition three months ago we said: “Regional SA continues to perform, with significant increases in median house prices in many locations. And we now have steady upward trends in sales activity in areas that have not previously featured …”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">And, notwithstanding the impacts of the pandemic period, Regional SA continues to deliver strong results. Of the 33 locations ranked in our survey, 17 are rated as rising markets, six are ranked as consistency markets and the other 10 are plateau markets.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Whyalla is continuing its recovery; Mount Gambier continues to be a growth market; and the Victor Harbor area has enhanced its status as a solid performer.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">There has been a big revival in prices in Whyalla, which was previously mired in a significant downturn. In the past 12 months, growth in median prices has included 29% in Whyalla, 31% in both Whyalla Stuart and Whyalla Jenkins, 20% in Whyalla Playford and 12% in Whyalla Norrie.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">To put this into perspective, these locations are rising from a very low base. Whyalla Stuart’s median house price has increased 31% in 12 months but remains at just $130,000. Whyalla Norrie’s median house price is just $145,000, despite an annual rise of 12%.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, prices are heading in the right direction, on the back of improved sales activity. </p>
<p>Other locations to record good median price growth over the past 12 months include Tanunda (12%), Naracoorte (10%), Kapunda (11%), Millicent (10%) and Mannum (10%). In the busy markets of the Alexandrina LGA, Middleton is up 10% and Hindmarsh Island has risen 16%.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">Alexandrina, south-east of Adelaide, continues to be the individual star in terms of sales activity. Most of the main centres in this municipality – Goolwa, Goolwa South, Hindmarsh Island, Middleton and Strathalbyn – have been classified as rising markets in our latest survey.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The Victor Harbor area is the other standout. This LGA often features in our reports as the steadiest of performers. In this new survey, Hayborough, McCracken, Victor Harbor and Port Elliot are all classified as rising markets. Prices are rising moderately in this market, generally around 3-5% in the past year. </p>
<p>T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></p>
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Adelaide one of the best real estate performers in Australia: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>High-intent renters are still very active on realestate.com.au, despite a softening market and relatively high supply.</p>
<p>The REA Insights Weekly Demand Index is a weekly metric that looks at the volume of high-intent renter activity on the realestate.com.au website and app and tracks that activity over time.</p>
<p>Specifically, it looks at how users are behaving when they interact with live rental listings.</p>
<p>The characteristics of serious renter activity includes but is not limited to; the number of visits to a listing, looking at the photos for a listing multiple times, saving the property, sharing the property and/or making an enquiry with the agent.</p>
<p><strong>Who is it useful for?</strong></p>
<p>For renters looking for new rental accommodation the index gives a good indication of the level of competition they can expect when they look at and apply for properties. Higher renter activity on a listing would suggest greater competition for that property or property type. In this index we’ve aggregated the high-intent rental activity and analysed it by state.</p>
<p>For owners of rental properties the index indicates the likelihood that they will be able to rent out their property.</p>
<p><em>Why REA Group is well placed to tell this story</em></p>
<p><em>Realestate.com.au is Australia’s number one property portal. In April 11.9 million Australians visited the platform* creating an unparalleled view of consumer demand for Australian property. This vast onsite activity sends millions of signals of intent that allow the experts at REA Insights to model behavioural demand.</em></p>
<p><strong>What is the latest data actually showing?</strong></p>
<p>The latest data shows that the number of highly-engaged rental listing interactions on realestate.com.au increased by 2.7 per cent last week. That means that serious renter activity has now increased for 10 of the past 11 weeks (falling the previous week) and is up 102.9 per cent from its low in March. The 2.7 per cent weekly increase did not completely offset the -4.3 per cent fall the previous week.</p>
<p>One of the likely drivers of such high volumes of serious renter activity is the fact that the number of new rental properties becoming available is shrinking. With less stock, those serious about renting are required to narrow their focus and are more likely to be highly-engaged with what’s available online.</p>
<p>The data indicates that it isn’t just search volumes that are climbing, we are also seeing a significant increase in the volume of people searching that are in the late stage of their rental decision.</p>
<p>All states recorded an increase in the volume of high-intent rental activity last week except for Western Australia and Tasmania, which fell slightly.</p>
<p>Since the recent low related to COVID-19 serious renter activity has more than doubled in New South Wales (110.2%), Victoria (133.8%) and Australian Capital Territory (140.1%). The smallest gains have occurred in Tasmania (45.2%) and Northern Territory (48.5%).</p>
<p><strong>What about compared to last year?</strong></p>
<p>Nationally, serious renter activity is up 70.5 per cent higher on last year.</p>
<p>The heightened rental activity is being felt in all states and territories with the largest annual increases in Australian Capital Territory (102.0%) and New South Wales (84.3%), while South Australia (20.8%) and Western Australia (41.5%) recorded the smallest increases.</p>
<p>While a lot of people are showing high-intent in their rental searches it remains to be seen whether they will actually move, especially considering there is a rental moratorium in place.</p>
<p>The rental market remains challenged with international borders closed, first-home buyer demand being pulled forward the government’s HomeBuyer initiative and people under the age of 30 being much more likely to have lost their jobs through COVID-19.</p>
<p>While a lot of people are actively looking at rental accommodation it may not be until later in the year when we actually see them moving into new rental accommodation.</p>
<p><strong>CAMERON KUSHER </strong><em>is the Director of Economic Research for the REA Group</em></p>
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High-intent renters are still very active on realestate.com.au: Cameron Kusher

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<p>The Federal Government’s $25,000 Homebuilder package for the housing sector will help promote jobs and activity as New South Wales recovers from the economic effects of COVID-19.</p>
<p>That is important as construction is a key pillar of the economy – generating 7.5 percent of the nation’s growth as Australia’s third-biggest employer, after retail and health care and social assistance.</p>
<p>The $688 million package hopes to pull forward activity to avert the jobs cliff that could arise as exisiting projects finish in the second half of 2020 and early 2021.</p>
<p>The industry was not shutdown unlike other industries. But the package is aimed at forward work pipelines, with the time frame requiring quicker state government and council approvals, before any impact on the actual property market and prices and rents.</p>
<p>The program aims to provide 27,000 grants by December this year. It is for owner-occupiers, especially cashed up first home buyers, but not investors.</p>
<p>The means-tested grants will be restricted to large renovations and the construction of new homes as the project cost must be at least $150,000.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the scheme would drive a "tradie-led recovery" of the economy, and would support 140,000 direct construction jobs and a million workers in the wider residential building sector.</p>
<p>"The industry is facing a valley of death," the Master Builders Australia chief executive Denita Wawn warned.</p>
<p>The scheme will last until the end of the year, aiming to get 30,000 homes underway by Christmas.</p>
<p>Construction must commence within three months of the contract date.</p>
<p>Those eligible are singles who earned up to $125,000 the 2018-2019 tax year and couples who earned up to $200,000.</p>
<p>The scheme will work alongside existing state and territory first-home owner grants programs, stamp duty concessions and other grant schemes, including the federal government’s popular first-home loan deposit scheme and first-home super saver scheme.</p>
<p>The desired economic recovery will be swifter for having a housing that is robust, but there will be many would-be home owners who can't, won't or shouldn't participate.</p>
<p>It comes up against the backdrop that typically less than 20 percent of first-home buyers prefer to buy newly-constructed homes.</p>
<p>There are price thresholds that apply to the Homebuilder package, especially in Sydney which will be restrictive in most suburbs.</p>
<p>If you are building a new home the total value of the completed house and land needs to be less than $750,000.</p>
<p>Or if substantially renovating your existing home the value of your existing property does not exceed $1.5 million.</p>
<p>The package will primarily have an effect in the outer suburbs and its greenfield housing markets. Mostly people some way down the track to either buying or building will likely get to participate.</p>
<p>The scheme also covers buying units off the plan that are construction ready.</p>
<p>Architect academic Geoff Hanmer says no doubt the scheme's structure will encourage people to build in coffee makers, microwaves, fridges and washing machines to bump the contract price up above the $150,000 minimum.</p>
<p>Beware too that there are unscrupulous builders who may take advantage of the scheme, warns the NSW builder broker, Builder Finders' Lynette Manciameli, is concerned that the scheme is vulnerable to exploitation.</p>
<p>“What we are likely to see off the back of the HomeBuilder scheme is dodgy builders coming out of the woodwork." Mrs Manciameli suggests.</p>
<p>Adding it is more important than ever for consumers to do their due diligence when selecting a builder for their project including seeking out testimonials and checking credit scores.</p>
<p><em>This article was first published in </em>The Daily Telegraph</p>
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HomeBuilder scheme will drive a tradie-led recovery

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.</p>
<p>Hotspotting’s Winter 2020 survey of sales activity has identified 54 growth markets and 30 consistency markets, down only marginally on the results of the previous (Autumn 2020) survey, which found 55 growth locations and 34 consistency ones. This was the strongest performance by Regional Queensland in three years and the results of this latest survey are only slightly inferior.</p>
<p>The number of “declining” markets has reduced (from 12 to six to four in recent surveys) and there are now few danger markets in Regional Queensland outside of the perennial struggler, Mount Isa.</p>
<p>Compared to the Covid-inspired deterioration in the results of other major jurisdictions across the nation, this is a commendable performance – and provides further evidence that regional areas have done much better in the pandemic period than the biggest capital cities.</p>
<p>The well-performing markets include Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Gympie and Toowoomba, as well as the Regional Queensland heavyweights, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.</p>
<p>In addition, we have seen further evidence of recovery in the Gladstone market, after multiple years in decline.</p>
<p>We continue to rate the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and it has produced another solid result in this winter survey. The Sunshine Coast Regional Council area and neighbouring Noosa Shire have 11 suburbs with rising sales activity and eight others with consistent sales performance. There are also a number of locations which have delivered strong price growth in the past 12 months.</p>
<p>Nearby Gympie has a number of growth locations and is poised for a sustained period of growth, given major infrastructure projects and its improved links to the boom Sunshine Coast economy.</p>
<p>Sales activity overall in Gold Coast City has declined, unsurprisingly given the impact of Covid-19 on an economy so heavily reliant on tourism. This is reflected in the 35 suburbs with plateau markets. Nevertheless, there remain 10 suburbs with rising sales activity.</p>
<p>There are solid performers spread across Queensland, stretching from Townsville in the far north to more southerly locations like Hervey Bay and the inland city of Toowoomba.</p>
<p>Townsville has five suburbs with growing sales and, boosted by major infrastructure projects, is poised for a recovery from the previous downturn.</p>
<p>Mackay, a growth market we have noted in previous surveys, also has five growth suburbs and has a number of locations delivering strong price growth. Sales in South Mackay have been 20-27-35-34-52 in the past five quarters, a pattern which had led to strong price growth recently.</p>
<p>Rockhampton is showing increasing signs of revival, with four growth suburbs and three with consistent sales performance. The suburb of Berserker has lifted quarterly sales from 21 to 31 to 33 to 43 in the past year. Frenchville and Gracemere display similar growth patterns.</p>
<p>The Fraser Coast, based on Hervey Bay, is showing increasing signs of a growth phase, with five suburbs with growing buyer demand.</p>
<p>Toowoomba, after several years of moderate activity, is showing symptoms of a rising market, with three growth and four consistency suburbs.</p>
<p>The one disappointing result comes from Cairns, which stood out strongly in the previous Autumn survey as a rising market with nine growth suburbs. But this Winter survey finds only two growth suburbs, with sales in most Cairns suburbs falling away recently. This is an economy strong reliant on tourism, including international visitors, which has taken a serious hit from Covid-19.</p>
<p>Regional Queensland has also performed well on price growth. Six out of 10 locations have produced some level of growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and most of those where prices have declined have done so only marginally.</p>
<p>The Sunshine Coast has a number of strong performers with annual price growth, led by Warana (19%), Minyama (16%) and Noosa Heads (11%).</p>
<p>The Gold Coast also has a number of growth locations, including Runaway Bay (18%), Worongary (15%), Palm Beach (11%) and Mermaid Waters (10%).</p>
<p>Mackay has some outstanding performers, including South Mackay (16%), Blacks Beach (14%) and Bucasia (10%).</p>
<p>I’ve previously noted the revival signs in Gladstone, with vacancies down and rents rising. We are now seeing evidence of prices rising, although from a low base. West Gladstone is up 16% and Glen Eden 23% in annual terms, while Calliope, New Auckland and Tannum Sands have all risen 8-9% in the past year.</p>
<p>Other resources-related locations where prices are rising from low bases include Moranbah (up 19%, but still only with a median of $240,000) and Blackwater (up 45%, but with typical houses still worth only $130,000).</p>
<p>Emerald is headed back to growth, with quarterly sales of 50-56-59-63-72 in the past five quarters.</p>
<p><strong>Terry Ryder</strong><em> is the founder of hotspotting.com.au </em><br><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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