Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

&nbsp;

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
This year we will learn, yet again, the simple truth that Australia is not a single property market.
You could be forgiven for thinking that the nation has just one united market, because most of the commentary in mainstream media discusses “the Australian property market” and what will happen to “Australian property prices”.
But success in 2018 will be achieved by those who understand that we do not have a single property market, but myriad different ones all doing their own thing, dictated by local conditions rather than national ones.
Have a look at the latest figures from the ABS on annual growth in dwelling prices in the eight state and territory capital cities in the past 12 months.
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Hobart rising and now the national leader with annual growth of 14 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Canberra rising but still moderate, with growth at 7 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Melbourne still strong, with annual growth at 13 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Sydney fading, with the annual growth rate now in single digits.</li>
<li class="li1">Brisbane and Adelaide going nowhere fast, with growth around 3-4 percent.</li>
<li class="li1">Perth (down 2 percent) and Darwin (down 6 percent) still going backwards.</li>
</ul>
Across regional Australia there were multiple market scenarios, with some growing strongly (like Newcastle, Geelong and the Sunshine Coast), others showing moderate growth, many stagnating with little in the way of price growth, some falling moderately and some (notably resources-related markets) down a lot.
You could argue we have a five-speed property market in Australia.
But you’re still going to see twits standing up on ABC Television making statements like “property price growth will be zero this year” and “the national property boom is over”.
You will also read various members of the chattering economist class discussing Australia as a single market and making meaningless forecasts about the future of Australian house prices. 
These sad bastards just don’t know any better. They’re not real estate specialists and they only occasionally turn their attention to residential property, by calling up a couple of graphs on their computer screens to examine what’s happening in what they see as a single homogenous one-size-fits-all real estate industry.
Forecasting that “Australian property prices” will rise 3 percent in 2018 is a pointless exercise, quite useless for the average consumer. The Reserve Bank governor said as much in a speech late last year.
The coming year will have similar variations to the last, with Canberra behaving very differently to Sydney, and Melbourne moving in an opposite direction to Perth.
Even within a single city, there will be different scenarios paying out in various parts of the metropolitan area. 
In Brisbane, there will be good growth in some of the more affordable areas, not much action in the middle market and price decline in the inner-city apartment markets.
Perth generally is moving into a solid recovery phase, but it won’t be evenly spread across the metropolitan area. Vacancies remain very high in the inner-city apartment suburbs and out in suburbia some precincts are moving forward more strongly than others. 
There are a couple of middle-market areas doing well, the Melville and Stirling local governments areas, while more affordable precincts in the north are leading the fight-back, notably the Joondalup and Wanneroo LGAs.
Such is the reality of our myriad real estate markets. Feel free to ignore anyone who generalises.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

My 2018 message - Australia is not a single property market

<html><body>
National residential listings fell by -4.8% to 303,901 in January, as sellers enjoyed the sunshine and trotting off on their summer hols, according to SQM Research. 
The monthly drop was driven by Melbourne (-13.9%) and Sydney (-6.9%). 
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X7AEY3BIk_M/WnlqPY5kKZI/AAAAAAAAoNM/Y9pH5Jfk3NsUDwG7pDjrLpZnLfxuKmnxQCLcBGAs/s640/sqm1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1376">
Despite the monthly decline, Sydney's listings at 26,150 are at the highest level since January 2009, being some +20.9% higher than a year earlier. For the first time in nearly half a decade, Sydney buyers will actually have some choice!
At the other end of the spectrum Melbourne listings are -11.9% lower year-on-year, while Hobart listings have copped an absolute shellacking. 
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0qjmmDauP0/WnmHj7Y11uI/AAAAAAAAoN8/YzsUfjuU2GUoiY2LrrmHG9VhQG7pBTIcACLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1359">
Hobart's housing market is now a buyer's nightmare with just 2,362 listings across the metropolitan area being some -29.1% down from January 2017. 
More strong price gains ahead for Hobart housing this year, then. 
In most other capital city markets stock listings were relatively flat from a year ago. Reported SQM: "Looking forward, with interest rates still at low levels and a possible expansion in lending by the banks, we expect a year of modest prices gains in Sydney and most other capital cities."
Interestingly SQM is quite positive for Sydney's prospects in 2018, certainly more so than most other commentators. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Hobart housing market is a buyer's nightmare: Pete Wargent

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One of several reasons that some of Australia's property markets might fare surprisingly well in 2018 is the looming equities correction, driven by volatility in the US and elsewhere. 
<div id="post-body-3635881065614058753" class="post-body entry-content">
It's now become clear (if it wasn't already obvious) that <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">interest rates aren't going to be hiked</a> this year, and probably not next either. 
<div>Employment is picking up nicely in some capital cities, and population growth is rising too, driving demand for housing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the lack of enticing alternatives will keep a healthy volume of investors interested in real estate, with the cash rate stuck at record lows for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since closing at 6135.81 on January 9, the Aussie share market as measured by the ASX 200 index has already dropped by -5.13 per cent. </div>
 <div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s1600/ASX.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s640/ASX.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1373"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>An inauspicious start to 2018 to say the least. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>'Pain trade'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>US stock futures are up quite strongly at the time of writing, so perhaps tomorrow will be a better trade Down Under. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But somehow it seems doubtful that stock market nerves are going to be settled for a while yet. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's the uncanny tendency of markets to deliver the maximum amount of punishment to the most investors from time to time, especially after a long, strong run.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Myer (ASX: MYR) finished today's trade with a fresh low close of 55 cents. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Shorters should now be wary of the takeover risk. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
 
</div>
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Share correction could help Australia property markets

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Two apparently contradictory things are happening in real estate – sales of residential land have fallen (a lot) but the prices being paid are rising (sharply).
In Sydney the rate of sale of residential lots has almost halved over three years, but prices (to quote a popular pun in real estate media) have gone through the roof.
How can that be? Do the laws of supply and demand no longer apply in Australia?
The answers to these questions lie at the heart of the affordability discussion.
And a clue to the answers lie in an announcement earlier this week: that a New South Wales state government decision is set to add as much as $50,000 to the cost of new house-and-land packages in Sydney.
Prices for residential allotments and new dwellings are rising so sharply because the costs of creating new shovel-ready land, and the homes that are built there, are constantly rising.
Those costs are escalating primarily because the housing industry is a beloved cash cow for politicians everywhere. All three levels of government milk the housing sector for revenue like there’s no tomorrow. 
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian came to power mouthing platitudes about making housing affordability one of her key priorities. But her government regularly announces decisions that make the problem worse.
Gladys is not alone. This is an issue across the nation. Every time a state or territory government that brings down an annual budget, affordability gets worse because there are always new taxes, fees and charges imposed on the industry that creates dwellings for Australian households.
On 19 February The Australian reported that “house prices on greenfield sites in Sydney could rise by as much as $50,000 following the NSW Government’s decision to uncap infrastructure levies on developers”.
It reported: “The government is about to lift the cap on section 94 levies — how much councils charge developers for infrastructure. A recent application by Blacktown council for the Marsden Park development, successful with the government’s Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, was for the $30,000 per home cap to be lifted to $87,000.
“In August, the UDIA and the Property Council wrote to the Premier saying: “Housing affordability is one of the NSW government’s three chief priorities announced when you became Premier this year. However there are several recent policy initiatives from the government that run contrary to achieving this outcome looking ahead. Changes to biodiversity regulations ... could add between $20,000 and $30,000 per lot while uncapping section 94 could add anywhere between $30,000 to $80,000 per dwelling.’’
When you understand that these decisions are a few among many that add to the cost structure of those who create new dwellings, you begin to see why real estate is so much more expensive in Sydney than elsewhere.
The latest Residential Land Report published by the Housing Industry Association shows that the median lot price in Sydney is more than double those in Brisbane and Adelaide, almost four times the median price in Hobart, and 55% higher than in Melbourne.
The report found that the median vacant residential land lot price nationally hit an all-time high of $267,368 in the September 2017 Quarter, up 10.9 per cent on the same period in 2016.
But land prices rose faster in the capital cities, up 12.8 per cent annually on average.
Sydney was the most expensive capital with the cost per square metre at $1,051, followed by Perth ($752), Melbourne ($737) and Adelaide ($637), while Hobart was the cheapest ($180).
HIA senior economist Shane Garrett says supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, leading to greater housing affordability issues.
“The high cost of new residential land is at the heart of Australia’s housing affordability crisis,” he says. “The housing industry’s ability to ramp up the supply of new dwellings as demand dictates is hampered by the inconsistency of the land supply pipeline. The time it takes for land to be made available to builders is unnecessarily long.”
These delays add to costs. Mix in the constant intrusion of new taxes, fees and charges, and you have the nub of the affordability issue.
It’s easy to see why it’s difficult for find an affordable house in Sydney, when you pay $480,000 for the typical home site, even though the average lot size keeps gets smaller – and despite the reality that the number of lot sales fell to below 250,000 in the September 2017 Quarter, compared to around 470,000 in the December 2014 Quarter (but the median price has risen from $340,000 to $480,000 in that time).
In Melbourne you pay $310,000 for the typical block of land, before considering the cost of building the house.
“The ability of new home building activity to respond to this increased demand has been held back by insufficient supply of shovel-ready residential land,” says the Residential Land Report.
So it means that the number of land sales has dropped not because of lower demand, but because of lower supply. That shortage, plus the rising cost structures imposed by state governments and local councils, means prices rise relentlessly.
In capital city Australia, the number of lot sales peaked in mid-2015 and has been trending steadily downwards ever since. But the median lot price has risen from around $250,000 to over $310,000 in that time frame.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Residential land sales fall but prices paid rise? Terry Ryder

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From Bondi Junction to Broken Hill, NSW first home buyers are "back in the game," NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet exclaimed recently.
But first home buyers aren't there to play a game, and should pay very close attention to market conditions.
They ought not dive in simply because of the government incentives on offer.
The top location for stamp duty relief under the FHB grants scheme has been Liverpool where more than 400 buyers have taken up home ownership since last July.
It has been busy too in regional NSW with Gosford having 316 buyers, Wyong (224) and Wollongong (158). Also Wagga Wagga (251), Orange (230) and Dubbo (182).
The 222 Queanbeyan buyers suggests Canberrans are moving across the border. 
Since last July, the government grants have encouraged more than 19,000 home buyers to purchase their first home across NSW.
It was up from 5400 over the corresponding prior period in 2016.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has been "thrilled" that her tax changes have had such a big impact. 
She had made helping first home buyers one of her first priorities as Premier, when she took over from Mike Baird.
She concedes there is always more to do on tackling housing affordability. Indeed the Housing Industry Association executive director David Bare said the government's attempts were meagre considering that up to 40 per cent of new house purchases were made up of local, state and federal government taxes.
CoreLogic's head of research Cameron Kusher has recently warned first home buyers must be vigilant to avoid negative equity.
"Don't be lured into buying at the peak of the market because of attractive incentives," he advised.
From last July FHBs don’t have to pay stamp duty for new and existing homes for properties up to $650,000.
It represents a saving of maybe $26,000 to $34,000 depending on the purchase.
Stamp duty has also reduced for buyers paying between $650,000 and $800,000, along with incentives for new builds. 
The volume of new loans to FHBs has climbed substantially over recent months. But average loan sizes have only increased slightly which suggests FHBs are wisely not using the removal of the stamp duty barrier to borrow more. 
Kusher maintains first home buyers are the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. 
Although he expects the cash rate to be on hold until 2019, potentially higher mortgage rates should raise some alarm bells for potential buyers.
The removal of stamp duty has come at the same time as the APRA-induced decline in investor activity so the FHB fill a vital void.
Kusher maintains a better option may be for FHBs to remain on the sidelines somewhat longer "as values potentially continue to slide".
He adds it will allow more time to save an even larger deposit.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

First home buyers back in the game - but need to know the rules

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<div>The days of the successful greedy vendor are almost done.</div>
The five year surge in Sydney prices is now coming off, as the Reserve Bank wished.
The biggest gap I've seen between asking price and selling price was over 20 percent. They wanted $27 million and took $21 million in Sydney's pricey east.
Long after the ambitious public asking prices, the more sombre secret sales outcome becomes known.
Any neighbours up the street thinking of selling are then forced to come back in expectation. The new pricing mood becomes contagious.
There is nothing too distressing around pricing really for most sellers, although the emerging slowdown captures almost all, even thoughtful asking prices.
South Sydney Rabbitohs star George Burgess recently made a mild adjustment to the price hopes of his <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-chifley-126771326" target="_blank">Chifley offering</a> (above and below).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/19/chifley2.jpg" alt="">
Having initially sought $1.8 million, there's now guidance between $1,725,000 to $1,775,000, with Burgess and wife Joanne expecting a second child in August.
But first home buyers should pay extra careful attention to market conditions, not just the incentives on offer.
While the price declines may be minor, first home buyers ought be wary of over paying and potentially going straight into negative equity.
The weekend auction success rates that kicked off unexpectedly well with 70 percent selling, have weakened in the pre-Easter auction period with the clearance rate back in the 50s.
The market does seems set to continue to deteriorate further.
Most analysts tip the decline will be moderate, somewhere in the order of five to 10 percent over the next two or so years.
They don't see any trigger such as high unemployment that would escalate into more substantial price falls across all markets.
Certainly unexpected quick rate rises - rather than possibly a few extended over years - could be devastating for many households. 
There are extreme calls such as the US forecaster Harry Dent who forecasts a halving in values.
But demand for property arising from population growth, arising both internally and from migration, is expected to provide a floor.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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The Sydney property downturn starts with asking price mismatch

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<div>The Department of Home Affairs released its latest pivot tables on temporary visas holders in Australia (with thanks to Henry Sherrell for highlighting). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the December quarter numbers tend to swing sharply higher due to fireworks on the harbour and all that jazz - to well above 2.2 million last year - the September figures make for interesting reading. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The stock data shows that temporary visa holders in Australia rose to 2.07 million by September 2017, well up from 1.96 million a year earlier and some 23 per cent higher than as at September 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That represents an extra 382,000 temporary visa holders in Australia from 5 years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubting the source of the boom, being the 50 per cent boost in student visas over the past half decade to well over ½ million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1371"></div>
<div>Also of interest to note: the number of bridging visas is now rising fast, implying a surge in the demand for permanent residency (PR) visa places from temporary visa holders.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These trends help to explain why the population of the largest capital cities has effectively been growing much more quickly than implied by the issuance of PR visas alone. </div>
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Student visa boom still underway: Pete Wargent

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<div>On the face of it a better result for retail trade in February 2018, with a +0.6 per cent increase in turnover, and the January result revised up slightly to +0.2 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Under the hood, though, this was another soft result, with department stores clearly under intense pressure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total retail turnover in February was $26.45 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, so only a marginal +0.2 per cent higher than we saw back in November when the i-Phone X was unleashed and Black Friday spiked the results. And the February figures for Sydney and Melbourne would have been enhanced by Chinese Lunar New Year falling later this year than last. You can click on the graphics to enlarge them. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1blDK0u9Io/WsQu3Q40fdI/AAAAAAAApPw/YCGR15IxNTEXBykTnejrt5DhEa_fx5vWACLcBGAs/s1600/RT1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1blDK0u9Io/WsQu3Q40fdI/AAAAAAAApPw/YCGR15IxNTEXBykTnejrt5DhEa_fx5vWACLcBGAs/s640/RT1.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1396"></a></div>
<div>Looking through the monthly noise, retail turnover in trend terms was a modest +2.7 per cent higher over the year. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s1600/RT2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s640/RT2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
The monthly rebound in turnover was driven by New South Wales (+1.1 per cent) and Victoria (+1.1 per cent), offset by a decline in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent).  
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kJHEQZK-yR4/WsQu45Xn6zI/AAAAAAAApP4/MHNlt0vHN2sySYAgS-KkITvjE_jpdv3rQCEwYBhgL/s1600/RT5.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kJHEQZK-yR4/WsQu45Xn6zI/AAAAAAAApP4/MHNlt0vHN2sySYAgS-KkITvjE_jpdv3rQCEwYBhgL/s640/RT5.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1361"></a></div>
<div>Amazon arrives</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures are of particular interest since the survey should include Amazon Australia sales.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's one thing we do know it's that there has been widespread industry discounting - indeed, you can take a walk around any shopping mall and see this for yourself. We'll see this better in the quarterly results, which will shed more light on price inflation (deflation) versus volumes as a driver of retail turnover. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Price discounting in part helped to drive a +1.5 per cent rebound in department store turnover in the month, but this came off the back of a series of monthly declines, with turnover remaining well below the levels seen in October last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8zi8UOzig7A/WsQu3TD_lcI/AAAAAAAApPs/w6xLPeARQskr2wosCS90B__acwmHy3uaQCLcBGAs/s1600/RT3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8zi8UOzig7A/WsQu3TD_lcI/AAAAAAAApPs/w6xLPeARQskr2wosCS90B__acwmHy3uaQCLcBGAs/s640/RT3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1407"></a></div>
<div>The rolling annual trend numbers over the the longer term tell the story better - department stores have never faced such sustained pressure since the statistician began measuring numbers. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vFsGQO42r0k/WsQu4qdggBI/AAAAAAAApP0/R1ePHxvfv5AtCnqnd4FYAkfw_0M-ELy-wCLcBGAs/s1600/RT4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vFsGQO42r0k/WsQu4qdggBI/AAAAAAAApP0/R1ePHxvfv5AtCnqnd4FYAkfw_0M-ELy-wCLcBGAs/s640/RT4.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1354"></a></div>
Tellingly, online retail accounted for 5.1 per cent of total turnover in the month, up from 3.6 per cent only a year earlier, an alarming rate of increase from the perspective of traditional retailers. 
<div>Myer has been one high-profile casualty with its share price trading at around 36 cents (down from a float price of $4.10) but there are plenty of others...and more in the offing. </div>
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Department stores under intense pressure: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: inflation! I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range. Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor. Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco. Market forecasts 
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Headline: House prices fell in May. Alternative headline: House prices rose in May. 
Which is right? Actually, both. Or, more correctly, it depends on whose figures you believe.
CoreLogic records a 0.4% reduction in house prices (overall, the average across the nation) during May, but Louis Christopher’s SQM Research reports a 1.1% rise in house prices over the same period.
And when the latest figures from Domain and the ABS become available, they’ll have different numbers as well.
We could spend hours discussing why different sources produce different (and sometimes conflicting) results on what’s happening with property prices. But suffice to say that they all have their own methodologies and parameters – and what they’re attempting, to distil tens of thousands of sales in myriad locations into a single growth figure, is a tad challenging.
But, ultimately, it’s doesn’t matter whether CoreLogic is right or SQM is right. Essentially, they’re saying the same thing: property prices are remarkably stubborn in the face of major negative forces. As they so often are.
House prices continue to defy the doomsday forecasters, many of them economists who refuse to let go of their flawed theories about how property prices SHOULD behave – and others among them opportunists who see potential to generate free publicity.
Here are some headlines:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">“House prices to drop 20%: AMP Capital” – The Australian, 19 March.</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could drop by up to 20%, says UBS” – Financial Review, 18 March</li>
<li class="li1">“Prices to plunge 30% as clearance rates fall off a cliff” – The Age, 8 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices will collapse, says UBS” – Financial Review, 2 April</li>
<li class="li1">“Can’t rule out 30% fall in house prices, says SQM” – Financial Review, 7 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could dive 30%” – The Age, 27 April</li>
</ul>
For those who declare “but it’s early days”, it isn’t.
This pandemic shemozzle, in terms of its impact on Australian life, declared itself on 20 February when the share market had its first meltdown. We’ve already been through the worst of the health impacts and the toughest of the restrictions and now we’re emerging steadily from lockdown towards increasing levels of normality.
When the price data for March (showing growth in most markets) was published, many in mainstream media said: “Yeah, but wait to we get the April figures, then we’ll see the true impact of Covid-19.”
When the April figures came out (again showing minor growth in most markets), we got the same reaction: “Yeah, but May will see prices nosediving.”
Well, that didn’t happen either. The CoreLogic data showed that in May there was growth or no change in house prices in nine of the 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), with an overall result of -0.4%, while SQM reported a national rise of 1.1% and a capital city rise of 0.5%, with increases in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
So, now the standard line from failed forecasters seeking to justify their negative stance on property markets is this: “Yeah, prices are stable for now but in September when the stimulus runs out everything will fall off a cliff.”
This comes direct from the kindergarten of real estate forecasting. It assumes that nothing will change over the next 3-4 months and that governments and lenders will recklessly turn off the tap without any regard to consequences. 
It also assumes that it’s all about JobKeeper and mortgage holidays, and overlooks the importance of infrastructure spending, loans and grants to businesses, support measures for renters, ongoing government stimulus measures like the $25,000 grant to home builders and renovators, and a whole lot more.
Australia has done well in this crisis and continues to do so. And the future belongs to those who see opportunity rather than calamity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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