<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the official departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The entity that submitted the plans is directed&nbsp;by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil's son.

Sunland paid $9.5 million for the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue late last year, and are now seeking to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9b5ace00-dd04-4875-a2dc-1b7583c2da24" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_2.png?VersionId=GfaTxcd9XPo3IZ.jP9pGjYYrmx7i7iCQ" />

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s September meeting contain similar themes to the August minutes but indicate that the Board acknowledges that it is getting closer to its next move on policy.
In August the Board minutes concluded that: “Having eased monetary policy at the previous two meetings, the Board judged it appropriate to assess developments in the global and domestic economies before considering further change to the setting of monetary policy. Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggested this was needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
In these minutes there is no reference to previous actions. Arguably reference to previous actions is a clear sign that the Board is content to observe developments whereas not referring to previous actions there is less emphasis on the need to wait.
It is also interesting that the theme that drove the June and July decisions to cut rates: “the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” was repeated in these minutes whereas that particular theme was absent in the August minutes.
The minutes refer to three “developments that had a bearing on the monetary policy decision”.
<ul>
<li>The labour market – strong employment growth was recognised but the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.2% (recall that the Governor has noted on other occasions that he would like to see the unemployment rate at 4.5%) and that wages growth “had remained low”. Indeed the minutes point out that “the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled”. We are aware that the Governor sees rising wages growth as the key to a sustained lift in spending growth and higher inflation. In addition the minutes noted that “forward – looking indicators had continued to suggest that employment growth would moderate over the following six months.”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The housing market – it was noted that there was “a turnaround in established housing markets” but from the perspective of economic activity there was “further weakness in dwelling investment in the near term” and low turnover in the housing market meant that “spending on home furnishings and other housing related items was not expected to contribute to consumption growth in the near term”.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>GDP growth – the Board meeting was held the day before the release of the June quarter national accounts. When the RBA released its forecasts on August 9 it was expecting GDP growth in the June quarter to be 0.8%; in the minutes it referred to an expectation of 0.5% due to the weakness of the partials in the lead up to the release. That forecast proved to be correct but the minutes did note that “private final demand was expected to be weak”. (In fact it was flat in the June quarter and down 0.4% for the year! – “weak” is probably an overstatement of the state of final demand).</li>
</ul>
On the international front the overriding theme was that “the escalation of the US–China trade and technology disputes, …had intensified the downside risks to the global outlook”. The outlook for China deteriorated somewhat and the trade disputes were weighing on East Asia generally.
On monetary policy the minutes note that markets priced in 100 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve while generally “further monetary policy easing was widely expected “from a number of central banks.
Finally, the minutes point out that, for Australia, “ financial market pricing continued to imply that the cash rate was expected to be lowered by another 25 basis points by November, with a further cut expected in the early part of 2020”.
Conclusion
The minutes make a fairly clear case for another rate cut in 2019.
With two meetings now having passed since the last move and , from my perspective, most importantly, the key rate cut theme that “ the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” returning to the narrative, our central view that there is no reason to wait until November for the next move still seems reasonable.
November is typically favoured by the RBA since it is a time when it can refresh its forecasts although we are not expecting any significant changes along the lines of August when the forecast unemployment rate was lifted; the forecast pace of wages growth was lowered; and the timing of the return of inflation to the 2–3% band was pushed out by a year. The growth forecast in 2019 is likely to be lowered but the 2020 forecast should remain intact.
However, as the minutes warn, “developments in the international and domestic economies, including the labour market” will be assessed to see whether a further easing of policy is “needed”.
Westpac continues to predict cuts in the cash rate of 25 basis points in both October and February next year.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40295/52930/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Case for RBA October rate cut intact: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Sydney households have been taking advantage of those two recent consecutive interest rate cuts to secure finance for home loans.
The number of new loans approved in July surged 3.9% nationally, stronger than anyone expected.
Approvals are still down year on year, but the rise to $32 billion in lending was the sharpest increase in four-and-a-half years, according to the the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The rise in new lending to households in July followed a 1.9% rise in June.
NSW led the gains, up by 5.4%.
The average 4.9% standard variable home rate is the lowest ever recorded by the Reserve Bank whose records date back to 1960.
After rate cuts in June and July by the RBA, the ABS confirmed a notable rise in borrowing among owner occupiers, first home buyers, and to a lesser extent investors.
First home buyers continued their steady return to the market, increasing their share of new owner-occupier lending to around 30%.
It was the highest proportion of first home buyers since early 2012.
The lending data over the next few months will provide insights on the strength of the property cycle upturn, but it does appear that the prospect of a Labor government was weighing heavily on market sentiment.
The APRA loosening in lending criteria is now in effect too enabling more borrowing power.
While the credit curbs have eased, be aware that the inquisitive questions on your spending habits remain the hurdle in your home loan applications. 
The emerging property market turnaround appears likely to cushion the extent and length of the downturn of the highly cyclical residential sector.
Although there remains uncertainty about just how the recovery will run, especially should late spring stock levels return to the market in a rush.
Currently, early spring auction volumes remain low at around 20% down in Sydney on the same weekend last September.
The auction and lending bounce is very much about buying established houses, rather than new apartments.
The latest ABS data indicated approvals to fund new construction was still in decline, some 15% lower year-on-year. 
There was also a decline in lending to businesses.
We don't need a dramatic spurt in property prices, but greater confidence would be good.
I have often written about all those tradies in high visibility vests across the suburbs. They are what's underpinning NSW's economic progress.
Many of these tradies have been building new homes in high-rise projects and new house and land estates, and many of them have then had the confidence to purchase their own homes.
The decreased apartment construction trend over the last two years will be tricky to turnaround. 
New South Wales continues to see a decline in the number of private sector building approvals.
New dwelling investment is always volatile and closely linked with retail spending on household goods.
By their own admission, it is hard for the RBA to track the high-rise apartment impact in their policy decisions.
The "longer and lumpier construction timelines for apartments" mean the full impact of policy changes may take many years to be realised, the RBA has previously acknowledged.
Ofcourse the apartment defects scandal has been the curveball on buyer willingness.
It has has impacted confidence from the dodgiest builder right through to the publicly listed Mirvac and Frasers Property.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Inquisitive questions on spending habits remain the hurdle in your home loan application

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SEPTEMBER RBA MINUTES
Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that business conditions in the manufacturing sectors in many economies had remained subdued. They discussed the escalation of the US–China trade and technology disputes, which had intensified the downside risks to the global outlook. By contrast, conditions in more domestically focused sectors had generally continued to be resilient, supported by ongoing strength in labour markets. Employment growth had remained robust in the major advanced economies, although it had eased a little in some economies in recent months, and unemployment rates had remained low. Although wages growth had picked up, year-ended inflation had remained below target in the major advanced economies. Members noted that inflation in the United States had increased in recent months.
The main development over the previous month had been the escalation of the US–China trade and technology disputes. The United States had announced higher tariffs on most imports from China, including consumer goods that had not previously been subject to the tariff increases, to take effect over the remainder of 2019. Members noted that recent and prospective increases in tariffs could increase consumer price inflation in the United States by between ¼ and ½ percentage point over the following few years, based on a range of published estimates. In response to the US announcements, China had suspended purchases of US agricultural products and had announced plans to increase tariffs on around one-half of the value of US imports. In value terms, US exports to China had contracted by around 20 per cent over the year to June, while US imports from China had been around 3 per cent lower. Members also noted that some other east Asian economies were benefiting from the diversion of US imports away from China.
More generally, global trade volumes had fallen over the previous year, reflecting both the escalation of trade tensions and slower growth in Chinese domestic demand. Weak external demand had been reflected in slowing growth in global industrial production and below-average conditions in the global manufacturing sector. Recent indicators suggested trade-related activity would remain weak for some time.
Members noted that weak external demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty had contributed to lower growth in business investment in many economies, including the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom. These economies had also recorded declines in investment intentions. By contrast, in the United States the household sector had been resilient, but overall GDP growth had slowed in the June quarter. GDP growth had also slowed in most euro area countries in the June quarter; Germany had recorded a small contraction in GDP. By contrast, GDP growth in Japan had been moderate, supported by consumption brought forward ahead of a scheduled increase in the consumption tax in October, as well as ongoing growth in investment, bolstered by the need to address labour shortages.
Recent data suggested that growth in China had eased further. Most indicators of economic activity had slowed in July, including in components being supported by recent policy measures, such as infrastructure investment. The level of steel production had declined slightly. Retail sales growth had resumed its downward trend, after having received a boost from strong growth in car sales in recent months ahead of tighter emission standards coming into effect. In India, recent indicators had also pointed to output growth slowing.
Weak global trade had continued to weigh on growth in east Asia. Trade within the region and with China had contracted further in June. Growth in industrial production and survey measures of manufacturing conditions had remained weak. Political unrest had weighed on economic conditions for businesses and households in Hong Kong, while an ongoing dispute with Japan had disrupted South Korean production of electronics. However, domestic demand elsewhere in the region had held up, supported by government policies in some cases.
Iron ore prices had declined since the previous meeting, but were around 40 per cent higher than a year earlier. Market reports had attributed these declines to a number of factors, including concerns about the outlook for steel demand in China following the escalation of the disputes between the United States and China in early August, lower steel prices and an easing in supply concerns. The prices of coal and rural commodities had been somewhat lower over the prior month, while oil and base metals prices had been little changed, except where there had been disruptions to the supply of specific metals.
Domestic Economic Conditions
The main information on the domestic economy received since the previous meeting had been on the labour market as well as partial indicators of output growth in the June quarter in the lead-up to the publication of the national accounts. Quarterly GDP growth was expected to be around ½ per cent, supported by a strong recovery in resource exports from earlier supply disruptions.
The ABS capital expenditure (Capex) survey suggested that mining investment had grown in the June quarter, driven by an increase in machinery &amp; equipment investment. The Capex survey suggested there had also been an increase in machinery &amp; equipment investment by the non-mining sector in the June quarter, while non-residential construction was expected to have declined. Investment intentions for 2019/20 had been positive for the mining sector, but had been modestly lower for the non-mining sector. Members noted that the outlook for the construction sector was particularly weak.
Members recognised that, overall, Australian businesses had not appeared to have been affected by the weak trade environment to the same extent as businesses in other advanced economies. This was partly because Australia's exports are more exposed to Chinese domestic demand and less integrated in global supply chains.
Consumption growth was expected to have remained low in the June quarter. Retail sales volumes had been weak in the June quarter and the value of retail sales had fallen in July. The low- and middle-income tax offset (LMITO) was expected to boost household income, and thus support consumption growth, in coming quarters. However, the Bank's liaison with retailers suggested that this had yet to lift spending noticeably. Members noted that even if the LMITO was used to pay off debts, this would still bring forward the point at which households could increase their spending.
Established housing market conditions had steadied in recent months. Reported housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne had risen noticeably in August and auction clearance rates had increased further, although volumes had remained low. Housing market conditions had been subdued elsewhere, although there were signs of housing prices stabilising in Brisbane. Housing turnover had remained low. Consequently, spending on home furnishings and other housing-related items was not expected to contribute to consumption growth in the near term. Indicators suggested that dwelling investment had declined further in the June quarter and indicators of earlier stages of residential building activity had remained weak; building approvals had declined further in June and other measures of early-stage activity and buyer interest had remained at low levels.
Employment growth had remained strong in July, but the unemployment rate had remained at 5.2 per cent. Employment growth over preceding months had been broadly based across states and had predominantly been in full-time work. Strong employment growth had been accompanied by a further increase in the participation rate, which had recorded another all-time high. Members noted that the increase in participation had been particularly notable for New South Wales. Forward-looking indicators had continued to suggest that employment growth would moderate over the following six months. Information from liaison suggested employment intentions had remained weak in the residential construction sector but positive among services firms.
Wages growth had remained low and the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled. The wage price index had increased by 2.3 per cent over the year to the June quarter. Private sector wages growth had been unchanged in the quarter, while public sector wages growth had been a little higher. Most of this increase had been the result of a one-off adjustment to equalise the wages of nurses and midwives in Victoria with those in New South Wales.
Financial Markets
Members commenced their discussion of financial markets by noting that government bond yields had declined and were at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Volatility and risk premiums in global financial markets had increased in August, following the escalation of the disputes between the United States and China and disappointing economic data releases in Germany and China. The persistent downside risks to the global economy, combined with subdued inflation, had led a number of central banks to reduce interest rates in recent months and further monetary easing was widely expected.
In the United States, market pricing implied that the federal funds rate was expected to decline by around 100 basis points over the following year. Market participants also expected the European Central Bank to provide additional monetary stimulus in the near term, including renewed asset purchases and a reduction in its policy rate further into negative territory. Central banks in a number of other advanced economies had also eased policy, or signalled that they were prepared to do so, in response to subdued inflation, moderating activity and downside risks to growth. For similar reasons, central banks in emerging markets had also been easing policy over recent months and had signalled the possibility of further easing.
Financial conditions for corporations remained accommodative globally. This reflected market participants' ongoing expectations that central banks were likely to deliver further monetary easing to sustain the global economic expansion. Corporate bond spreads had increased a little in August, but remained low. Equity prices had declined somewhat, reflecting concerns about the outlook for growth, but remained substantially higher over the year to date. In Australia, equity prices were 5 per cent below the record high reached in late July. Australian listed companies' profits had risen, driven by the resources sector. At the aggregate level, companies had increased their dividends over the preceding year, although this reflected higher dividends in the resources sector in particular.
In China, the authorities had intervened to support three small banks in preceding months, and the People's Bank of China had continued to maintain a high level of liquidity in the banking system. While funding conditions for smaller banks had tightened this year, money market rates and corporate and government bond yields in China had generally remained low and market participants were expecting further easing in monetary policy in the period ahead.
In foreign exchange markets, the Chinese renminbi had depreciated against the US dollar in August following the escalation of the US–China disputes, while the Japanese yen had appreciated over the month. The Australian dollar had been little changed at around its lowest level in some years.
In Australia, borrowing rates for both businesses and households were at historically low levels, as were banks' funding costs. Variable mortgage rates had declined broadly in line with the reductions in the cash rate in June and July. Fixed mortgage rates had also declined substantially over the preceding six months. Financial market pricing continued to imply that the cash rate was expected to be lowered by another 25 basis points by November 2019, with a further cut expected in the early part of 2020.
Growth in housing credit had been little changed over the year to July, having declined steadily through 2018. Credit to investors had declined slightly over previous months. Meanwhile, housing loan approvals to both owner-occupiers and investors had increased for the second consecutive month in July. This pick-up in loan approvals had followed a significant decline over the preceding two years and was consistent with the signs of stabilisation in the established housing market. Borrowing by large businesses had continued to grow at a relatively strong pace. In contrast, small businesses' access to finance remained difficult, and had become more difficult over the preceding year as banks had tightened their lending practices. While new sources of non-traditional finance had been growing, including equity funding from family offices and private equity funds, they remained a small share of business funding.
Members had a detailed discussion of the ways in which financial conditions abroad affect Australia. They discussed how shifts in world interest rates and global risk premiums flow through to domestic financial conditions. While Australia's floating exchange rate means that monetary policy can be set largely according to domestic considerations, members discussed the large shifts in savings/investment decisions globally, which were affecting the level of interest rates everywhere, including in Australia. Members also noted the critical role that the exchange rate had played over many years as a shock absorber for the Australian economy. One important factor here has been that Australian entities raising offshore funding are able to do so in Australian dollars, either directly or via hedging markets.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
Turning to the policy decision, members observed that the news on the international economy had confirmed that the risks to the global growth outlook were to the downside. The trade disputes between the United States and China had escalated and growth in China had continued to slow. There had been further indications that these developments were affecting trade and investment decisions in overseas economies, although businesses had continued hiring and labour market conditions had remained tight.
Against this backdrop and with ongoing low inflation, a number of central banks had reduced interest rates over recent months and further monetary easing was widely expected. Long-term government bond yields had declined and were at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households were also at historically low levels, and the Australian dollar exchange rate was at the lowest level that it had been in recent times.
Domestically, members considered a number of developments over preceding months that had a bearing on the monetary policy decision. First, employment had continued to grow strongly and the participation rate was at a record high. However, the unemployment rate had remained steady at around 5.2 per cent over recent months. At the same time, wages growth had remained low and there were few indications that wage pressures were building. Members noted that a further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent outcomes suggested that spare capacity remained in the labour market and that the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Second, there had been further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, although housing turnover had remained low. Housing credit growth had remained subdued, although mortgage rates were at record low levels and there was strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality. Data on residential building approvals and information from the Bank's liaison program suggested that there was likely to be further weakness in dwelling investment in the near term; members recognised that this could sow the seeds of an upswing in the housing price cycle at some point, particularly given the lengthy stages in the construction of higher-density residential housing. Demand for credit by investors continued to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remained tight.
Finally, based on partial indicators, GDP growth in the June quarter was expected to have been around ½ per cent. The largest contributions to growth were expected to have been from exports and public demand. Private final demand, which includes consumption, business investment and dwelling investment, was expected to have been weak.
Looking forward, the outlook for output growth was being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. A key uncertainty continued to be the outlook for consumption growth, which was expected to increase over time, supported by a gradual pick-up in growth in household disposable income and improvements in conditions in the housing market. Inflation pressures remained subdued, but inflation was expected to increase gradually to be a little above 2 per cent over 2021 as output growth picked up and the labour market tightened.
Based on the information available, members judged that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to make sustained progress towards full employment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. Members would assess developments in both the international and domestic economies, including labour market conditions, and would ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Low interest rates necessary to support growth: RBA September minutes 

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The value of home lending saw a jump of over five per cent in new home loans settled in July, according to new ABS data.
Owner-occupiers saw the biggest growth, with a 5.3 per cent increase in value in July.
Investors have continued their come-back into the housing market, with the value of investor loans increasing 4.7 per cent.
First home buyers have continued their slow but steady return to the market, increasing their share of new owner-occupier lending to 29.4 per cent in July, up from 29.3 per cent in June – the highest proportion since January 2012. 
Fixed loans have continued to fall out of favour with borrowers. The proportion of owner-occupiers fixing fell to 10.4 per cent, which is the lowest level since October 2015.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Housing finance 
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Value of new loans
</td>
<td valign="bottom">
% change from previous month
</td>
<td valign="bottom">
% change year on year
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Owner occupiers
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
5.3%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-8.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Investors
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
4.7%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-20.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
All loans
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
5.1%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-11.8%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Overall lending jumped 14.7% in July, with owner-occupier lending up 16.7% and investor lending up 9.4% month-on-month.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the stars are starting to align for borrowers in the lead up to the spring property season, despite the gloomy economic outlook. 
“Borrowers are feeling buoyed by a combination of plummeting interest rates, tax cuts, more relaxed serviceability measures and clarity around negative gearing,” she said.  
“Interestingly, this is the first month that factors in APRA’s axing of its 7 per cent serviceability floor. It’s likely that part of the bounce can be attributed to this, and we expect it to continue to have a positive effect on the market.
Home loan share 
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom">
Share of loans July 2019
</td>
<td valign="bottom">
Share of loans June 2019
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
First home buyer share
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
29.4%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
29.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Fixed loan share
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
10.4%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
14.1%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/9/first%20home%20buyer.png" alt="">
Notes: Based on the share of new owner occupier loans.  
“However, Australians are still on the sidelines when it comes to fixing, despite banks’ best efforts to attract new fixed borrowers onto their books”, she said. 
“It’s not surprising that a lot of Australians are now opting not to fix their home loan ratein this climate when the RBA has made it clear there could be one, if not two more rate cuts to come. 
“There are now dozens of lenders offering fixed rates below 3 per cent and as low as 2.74 per cent, for owner occupiers paying principal and interest, especially if they have a decent amount of equity in their home.”
 
 
 
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Home lending bounces back in the lead up to spring

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Mortgage debt obligations for older Australians is a growing concern. 
The average mortgage debt of those aged 55 and older has grown by almost seven times since the late 1980s, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).
Their mortgage debt, after accounting for inflation, rose from $27,000 in 1987 to $186,000 to 2015.
Back in 1987, only 14% of Australians over 55 had a mortgage.
But it doubled to 28% by 2015, AHURI found.
There has been a severe increase in repayment risk, although low interest rates have mitigated the level of current concern.
The mortgagor older population is more prone to material deprivation than outright property owners.
Nearly 8% of older mortgagors have been unable to pay their utility bills on time between 2006 and 2016, compared to around 3% of outright owners.
The blow-out has been made worse by the practice of redrawing equity on their home loans and also extending the length of their home loans.
Between 1987 and 2015, the growth in mortgage debt outstripped both house price and income growth among older mortgagors.
With reduced incomes approaching and on retirement, the average mortgage debt-to-income ratio was 71% in 1987, and 211% by 2015.
The research by found mortgage indebtedness was uncommon among the 55–64 cohort as recently as the 1990s.
The report's lead author, Rachel ViforJ, professor of economics at Curtin University, says these days the mental health effects on the older Australians with mortgages are "comparable to those resulting from long-term health conditions".
The Curtin and RMIT research concluded when older mortgagors experience difficulty in meeting mortgage payments their wellbeing declines. It's more so for women than men. Single status, marital breakdown, ill health and poor labour market engagement all adversely affect women’s mental health more than men.
"There is already significant concern in policy circles about older people’s vulnerability to poverty, particularly single elderly women, who have longer life expectancies than men, but lower superannuation balances," the report noted.
Older retired mortgagors are increasingly drawing down their limited superannuation balances.
As their average superannuation balances tumbled from $471,000 to $271,000 between 2010 and 2014, average equity stakes in their property rose from $621,000 to $667,000. 
The ARUHI modelling predicts an "increasingly tenure polarised seniors population".
Outright ownership will remain an important but weaker pillar supporting living standards in old age.
Outright ownership status will be attained later in life and with lower incomes.
The projections suggest that 1.88 million older Australians could be in before-housing poverty in 2031.
This count falls by 730,000 to 1.15 million on an after-housing cost basis.
The report urges long-term planning for a mortgage debt repayment strategy.
It may prove especially worthwhile for those particularly "vulnerable to biographical disruption, or with weak labour market engagement, or those with higher levels of debt throughout their life course as financial innovations enabled home owners to draw down on the wealth stored in their family home without moving".
Downsizing is, of course, one obvious strategy.
But the report warns stamp duties, pension income and the asset means tests that penalise downsizers, along with a lack of suitable smaller dwellings in the neighbourhoods of older empty nesters and lone persons households, are important issues for state and federal governments.
Home ownership has often been dubbed the fourth pillar of the retirement incomes system.
However, this pillar may be crumbling due to rising mortgage indebtedness, the report concludes.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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Mortgage debt for older Australians is a growing obligation

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The July 2019 housing finance data was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) earlier today and it shows that demand for mortgages is starting to rise.
Of course, dwelling values in July were unchanged nationally and there were rises recorded for the second successive month in Sydney and Melbourne with an increase also in Brisbane.
There were clear signs in the market at this time that mortgage demand was lifting and today’s data confirms that.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/9/Mortgage%20Lending%201.JPG" alt="">
In July 2019, there was $26.5 billion worth of housing finance commitments, marking the second consecutive month of increases.
The $26.5 billion was 5.2% higher over the month, which was the largest monthly increase since March 2015. Despite the monthly increase in lending, year-on-year it was -9.6% lower.
The $26.5 billion was split between $19.3 billion worth of commitments to owner-occupiers and $7.2 billion for investors.
For both owner-occupiers and investors it was the second successive months in which the value of lending has increased.
The $19.3 billion worth of commitments to owner-occupiers was the greatest value since November 2018 and the $7.2 billion in commitments to investors was the greatest since December 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/9/Mortgage%20Lending%202.JPG" alt="">
Breaking the data out by new mortgage lending and refinances you can see that most of the increase in lending is coming from new lending rather than refinances of existing loans.
For owner-occupiers, the $19.3 billion was split between $13.3 billion for new lending and $6.1 billion worth of refinances.
For both new and refinances to owner owner-occupier lending it was the largest value of lending since November 2018 however, new mortgage lending is up 9.5% from the recent low and refinances are 6.3% higher.
For investors, the $7.2 billion worth of commitments is split between $4.6 billion for new lending and $2.5 billion for refinances of existing mortgages.
The value of lending to investors for new mortgages is up 5.7% from its recent low while refinances are 4.3% higher.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/9/Mortgage%20Lending%203.JPG" alt="">
The number and share of owner-occupier mortgages going to first home buyers is also increasing.
Excluding refinances, there were 10,136 mortgage commitments by first home buyers, which represented 29.4% of all owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinances). The 10,136 commitments to first home buyers was the most since November 2018 and the share of commitments to first home buyers was the greatest since January 2012.
The data points to first home buyers increasing their participation which isn’t a great surprise given that over recent years dwelling values have fallen, the housing market value falls have now bottomed, interest rates were reduced in both June and July and borrowing capacities have been increased with the removal of previous lending restrictions.
The consecutive rises in the value of mortgage lending follows the theme whereby national dwelling values have also been increasing since the middle of May 2019. Since July 2019, there has been an acceleration in the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne with national dwelling values also rising in August for the first time since late 2017.
CoreLogic’s valuation metadata has now recorded its highest annual growth rate since early 2017. While that won’t necessarily all translate into new mortgages it does show that interest in the housing market is rising.
Although it is now early in spring, auction clearance rates are continuing to rise as is the volume of stock available for sale and at the same time lenders are offering attractive mortgage rates for borrowers. Given all of this, we would expect that demand for mortgages will continue to climb over the coming months.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Value of mortgage lending continued to lift in July: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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ASIC has commenced proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia against Bendigo and Adelaide Bank concerning unfair contract terms in small business contracts.
ASIC alleges that certain terms used by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank in contracts with small businesses are unfair. If the Court agrees with ASIC, the specific terms will be void and unenforceable by the Bendigo and Adelaide Bank in these contracts.
ASIC alleges that certain terms used by the Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and are unfair, as the terms:
<ul>
<li>cause a significant imbalance in the parties’ rights and obligations under the contract;</li>
<li>were not reasonably necessary to protect the Bendigo and Adelaide Bank’s legitimate interests; and</li>
<li>would cause detriment to the small businesses if the terms were relied on.</li>
</ul>
Some of the unfair terms pleaded by ASIC include clauses that give lenders, but not borrowers, broad discretion to vary the terms and conditions of the contract without the consent of the small business owner, along with clauses that allow the bank to call a default, even if the small business owner has met all of its financial obligations.
ASIC is also seeking a declaration from the Federal Court that the same terms in any other small business contract are also unfair.
If the Federal Court finds that any of the terms of the standard form contracts are unfair, the unfair terms are void (it is as if the terms never existed in the contracts). ASIC is seeking that the terms are declared void from the outset - not from the time of the court’s declaration. The remainder of the contract will continue to bind parties if it can operate without the unfair terms.
Since 1 July 2010, ASIC has administered the law to deal with unfair terms in standard form consumer contracts for financial products and services, including loans.
With effect from 12 November 2016, the unfair contract terms provisions applying to consumers under the Australian Consumer Law and the ASIC Act were extended to cover standard form ‘small business’ contracts.
Small businesses, like consumers, are often offered contracts for financial products and services on a ‘take it or leave it’ basis, commonly entering into contracts where they have limited or no opportunity to negotiate the terms.
These are known as ‘standard form’ contracts. Small businesses commonly enter into these ‘standard form’ contracts for financial products and services, including business loans, credit cards, and overdraft arrangements.
The unfair contracts law applies to standard form small business contracts entered into, or renewed, on or after 12 November 2016 where:
<ul>
<li>the contract is for the supply of financial goods or services (which includes a loan contract);</li>
<li>at least one of the parties is a ‘small business’ (under the ASIC Act, a business employing fewer than 20 people is a ‘small business’); and</li>
<li>the upfront price payable under the contract does not exceed $300,000, or $1 million if the contract is for more than 12 months.</li>
</ul>
 
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ASIC sues Bendigo and Adelaide Bank for use of unfair contract terms

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When discussing housing affordability, older Australian tend to point to much higher interest rates in the past as being a challenge while for younger Australians, higher property values are seen as the biggest barrier to home ownership. The truth of the matter is it is much more nuanced than this, but on balance I would say it is much harder to break into the housing market now than it has been in the past but it is not due to much higher property values alone. Let’s take a look why.
Although dwelling values have reduced over recent years, housing is in most instances (much) more expensive than it has been in the past. While this is an important consideration it is not the be all and end all.
One of the commonly repeated memes is that interest rates were high in the early 1990s thus making buying a home difficult. What probably made buying a home more difficult at time was the fact that the unemployment rate reached as high as 11.2% compared to the 5.2% today however, once again it is a bit more nuanced than that. When unemployment peaked, the male workforce participation rate was 73.8% which is actually higher than it currently is (70.9%) while the female participation rate was 51.9% compared to the historic high of 61.1% it is currently.
Furthermore, although the unemployment rate peaked at 11.2% in December 1992, the underemployment rate at that time was 7.8% compared to the 8.9% it is currently. Delving a little deeper to look at underemployment for those likely to be saving for a mortgage, the underemployment rate in December 1992 for 15-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds was 13.3% and 6.7% respectively in 1992 compared to 20.7% and 7.2% respectively today.
Although the unemployment rate was much higher in 1992 than it is today, there were fewer females in the workforce. Individuals that had a job were more likely to be getting as many hours as they wanted compared to today’s workers, particularly younger workers, the ones most likely to be trying to save a home deposit. The fact that female participation has lifted so much over recent years also points to the fact that saving for and paying off a mortgage increasingly requires more than one income.
Another factor pointing to entering the housing market being more or just as difficult in the past as it is today is the higher interest rates in the early 1990s. If you had a mortgage at that time that was certainly a somewhat difficult time however, if you were saving for a deposit at that time you were also receiving substantially higher rates of interest on your savings. When standard variable mortgage rates for owner-occupiers hit their peak at 17% between June 1989 and March 1990, 12 month term deposit rates for savers hit as high as 16% but ranged from 14.2% to 16.0%.
Today, standard variable mortgage rates are recorded at 4.94% and 12 month term deposit rates are 1.65%. Both are at historic lows however, the gap between the term deposit and variable mortgage rate is only slightly lower than its historic high and much larger than it was in the past. While a current potential buyer may be looking to save for the mortgage, they aren’t getting the assistance from higher interest rates that they may have in the past.
Inflation is also a key consideration in this discussion. Inflation is at record low levels currently and was much higher in the past. While many people tend to not consider it, higher inflation is typically accompanied by higher interest rates but equally if the cost of everything is increasing more rapidly, it results in the erosion of the real value of a mortgage. Given this, higher inflation should lead to mortgagees being able to pay off their mortgage quicker. While this doesn’t necessarily impact on those people saving for a deposit it does mean that once they take out a mortgage, paying it off is relatively easier with higher inflation than it is with lower inflation.
Saving a deposit for a mortgage has always been difficult. When I first took out a mortgage I was lucky that my parents were able to assist. Equally, when my parents first took out a mortgage in the 1970s they had parental assistance and my children will most likely need assistance from my wife and me.
Unfortunately, not everyone is in a position to receive the same assistance and when you look holistically at the current factors of high property values, insecure employment, low inflation and subsequently low interest rates, I think it is more difficult than it has ever been to save for a mortgage. Supporting this opinion is the fact that the share of households that are renting continues to rise while the share of owner-occupier households both with or without a mortgage continues to fall.
Improving access to potential first home buyers is extremely difficult, with grants tending to push values higher but it is clear something needs to be done. Unfortunately, falling dwelling values have broader repercussions for the economy because so much household wealth is tied to housing. Ideally, after recent value declines we see the housing market show modest gains over the coming years which would continue to gradually improve affordability over time. In saying this, it still doesn’t really address the challenge that saving a deposit continues to be the biggest hurdle and low interest rates look to be in place for a number of years to come.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Saving for a mortgage deposit is harder than ever before: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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The RBA decided to keep the official cash rate on hold at a record low one per cent at its September meeting.
It follows a hold last month.
The charts came out on the RBA learning that GDP growth slid to 1.4 per cent over the June quarter, the slowest in a decade.
The result was in line with economists' expectations.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
HOUSE PRICES CONTINUED TO REBOUND
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/House%20Prices.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/House%20Prices.jpg" alt="">
 
House prices continued their uptick, <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-and-melbourne-house-and-apartment-prices-power-ahead-in-august-corelogic">driven by Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
In his meeting statement, RBA governor Philip Lowe noted the further signs of property turnaround, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/further-signs-of-property-turnaround-especially-in-sydney-and-melbourne-rba-september-meeting">particularly in Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" alt="">
Westpac's Matthew Hassan noted that consumer confidence is <a href="/news/housing-sentiment-at-its-most-positive-in-over-5-years-matthew-hassan">at its highest in five years</a>.
Westpac research broke down <a href="/expert-insights/buying/a-state-by-state-housing-sentiment-rundown-matthew-hassan">where sentiment was growing</a> state by state.
LABOUR MARKET NOT HITTING TARGETS
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/LABOUR%20MARKET.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/LABOUR%20MARKET.jpg" alt="">
The labour market is one of the key indices which the RBA are keeping their eye on.
In July the unemployment rate <a href="/expert-insights/investing/unemployment-rate-meets-forecasts-and-remains-at-5-2">remained unchanged</a> at 5.2 per cent. 
Richard Holden says our progress on wages and unemployment <a href="/expert-insights/investing/amid-talk-of-recessions-our-progress-on-wages-and-unemployment-is-almost-non-existent">is almost non-existent</a>.
BUILDING APPROVALS CONTINUE DECLINE
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/Building%20approvals.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/Building%20approvals.jpg" alt="">
 
Building approvals across the country continue to decline, led by New South Wales.
JLL noted Sydney apartment approvals <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydney-apartment-approvals-down-30-in-one-year-jll">were down 30 per cent</a>. 
There was a sharp 9.7 per cent drop in July across the country, taking <a href="/expert-insights/buying/australian-dwelling-approvals-lurch-lower-matthew-hassan">approvals to a six and a half year low.</a>
 
 
 
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The four charts that prompted the RBA to keep rates on hold in September

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA remained on hold at a record low cash rate of 1% at its September board meeting as widely expected. This followed 0.25% rate cuts in June and July.
The Bank’s post meeting statement was little changed which was a bit surprising given the further escalation of the US-China trade war over the last month and the run of soft economic data in Australia. Nevertheless the statement remained dovish:
<ul type="disc">
<li>referring to the downside risks to global growth from the trade war and associated uncertainty;</li>
<li>although it still sees growth strengthening to around trend, this is only expected to occur “gradually”;</li>
<li>noting that the outlook for consumer spending remains the main domestic uncertainty;</li>
<li>noting that wages growth remains subdued with little upwards pressure; and</li>
<li>indicating that inflation will likely be subdued for some time yet.</li>
</ul>
The final paragraph repeated Governor Lowe’s recently used forward guidance to expect an “extended period of low interest rates” and noted that the Board stands ready to ease monetary policy again if needed, indicating that the Bank retains an easing bias.
The RBA is still waiting to see what sort of boost to growth the rate cuts of June and July and the Federal Government’s tax cuts for low and middle income earners provide.  However, while these will help avoid recession we doubt that they will be enough to generate decent growth and the evidence from July is not that encouraging!
While house prices in Sydney and Melbourne may be bouncing higher, growth looks to have been far weaker than the RBA expected in the June quarter with only trade and public spending keeping the economy from going backwards, the growth outlook remains weak with the housing construction downturn gathering pace and threat from Trump’s trade war increasing, and there is no sign of any pick up in wages growth and inflation with unemployment looking more likely to drift up than down.
So while the RBA is content to wait for now, we continue to see two more rate cuts this year taking the cash rate down to 0.5%, with the next cut likely coming next month.
While the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets could present a problem for the RBA in terms of cutting rates further, the RBA will likely do what it believes is right for the “average” of Australia rather two cities’ property markets. But it may have to resort to tighter regulatory controls again if it needs to cool the Sydney and Melbourne property markets once more for financial stability reasons.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital
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