A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut the cash rate on Tuesday, according to Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey.
More than half (55%, 25) of the 45 experts and economists surveyed expect the cash rate to drop to 0.75% on Tuesday. 
Three-quarters (73%, 33) are predicting at least one cut will happen by November.
With three cuts in 2019 now a probability, there is a group of experts (13%, 6) who believe a fourth cut is possible this calendar year.
In fact, five economists expect the rate to go all the way to 0.25% with one predicting we get to 0%.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/f1149f38-32a0-4fff-ac24-474dc397b4b8.png" data-imagetype="External"> Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said 2020 could be the year of a negative cash rate, quantitative easing, or potentially both. “As the RBA cuts the cash rate closer to zero, they are slowly diluting their power. An injection of cash may be the only option to stimulate the economy. “This comes on the back of [RBA Governor] Philip Lowe saying last month that ‘unconventional’ options may be used if the economy warranted it, which seems to include both the potential of quantitative easing and a negative rate. “We are looking at uncharted waters for Australia,” Cooke said. <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/b0a1017f-3b4b-44ee-b109-0ee71b7184fb.png" data-imagetype="External"> 
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Over half of economists surveyed predict cash rate cut: Finder

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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has expressed a fear that "hard-working families" trying to get a housing loan have been hit by regulators being too stringent in enforcing responsible lending rules.
Frydenberg has welcomed the small rise in capital city housing prices, citing Treasury research that a 10 per cent increase in house prices could boost GDP by 0.5 per cent.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pushed back against regulators being too stringent in enforcing responsible lending rules, warning that this could penalise "hard-working families" trying to get a housing loan and hurt the economy.
"It's vitally important that the housing market remains strong," he said.
"To date, ASIC  has adopted a principles-based and scalable approach. This has allowed flexibility for lenders to appropriately take into account the facts and circumstances of each case and vary the degree of inquiry and verification depending on the customer risk involved."
"Common sense dictates that a sensible balance needs to be struck because an unduly restrictive application of these obligations can do as much harm as an overly lax one. Clearly, the risk that the provision of credit may cause substantial hardship to some should not result in a significantly reduced ability to access credit by the vast majority of borrowers," the Treasurer added. 
After his speech to The Australian Financial Review's Property Summit in Sydney on Thursday, Frydenberg said he expects any further rate cuts to be passed on.
The banking industry has also warned that the flow of credit to key sectors like first-home buyers and small and medium-sized businesses could be disrupted if APRA proceeds with capital reforms that are more stringent than international standards.
The Australian Banking Association says any additional capital required that was in excess of the Basel III requirements would be “detrimental” to the domestic economy.
The so-called Basel III rules are part of a package of measures introduced after the global financial crisis aimed at making banks stronger. 
“At present, Australian economic growth is weak and any further impediments to lending such as increased capital requirements, combined with disadvantages in international markets, will have a further negative impact on economic growth when they come into effect,” the ABA says in a submission to the prudential regulator’s review of the capital framework for banks.
 
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Responsible home loan lending rules don't need to be overly stringent: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg

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In his speech yesterday to the Armidale Chamber of Business, RBA governor Philip Lowe opened the door for a rate cut next week.
"Over recent times, our economy has been going through a soft patch," Lowe opened his segment on the Australian economy.
He says they [the RBA] were not expecting a slowdown of GDP, which grew by just 1.4 per cent over the year to June, the slowest year-ended growth for a number of years.
"We did not expect this slowdown, so it has come as a bit of a surprise," Lowe suggested.
On interest rates, Lowe said the decisions to ease monetary policy in June and July were taken to help make more assured progress towards full employment and the inflation target.
"Further monetary easing may well be required," Lowe advised.
"Regardless of the short-term outlook for monetary policy, the point about the solution to low global rates is relevant here in Australia too.
"We will all be better off if businesses have the confidence to expand, invest, innovate and hire people.
"Given Australia's strong fundamentals, this is not out of our reach, but it does require constant effort. 
He said that Australia are "at a gentle turning point and expect growth to pick up," however he added that the strength and durability of the pick-up remains to be seen.
Unemployment and underemployment have been they key topics in the RBA's thinking as to when to cut rates, and how far.
Lowe said there has been an accumulation of evidence over recent times that the economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment than previously thought likely.
He added that the flexibility of labour supply also means that strong rates of employment growth can be sustained without inflation becoming a problem.
"These are both positive developments," he said.
Lowe suggested inflation will pick up, with it having been below to two to three per cent medium-term target for some time, however said it will "remain below the midpoint of the target range for some time to come."
 
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RBA governor Philip Lowe lays foundations for October rate cut

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Why further monetary easing may well be required: RBA governor Philip Lowe

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EXPERT OBSERVER
APRA’s property exposures data is published each quarter and provides a summary of lending by ADIs over the quarter.  The data is valuable because it gives much more insight into new lending than what is available from the monthly housing finance data, which is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Change%20in%20value%20of%20new%20mortgage%20lending%20approvals.PNG" alt="Annual Change in value of new mortgage lending approvals.PNG" width="998" height="365" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="62db70a1-0572-49d6-84c7-813f3dd4a92f" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Change%20in%20value%20of%20new%20mortgage%20lending%20approvals.PNG">
 The latest data showed that the value of lending to owner-occupiers was 9.3% higher in the June 2019 quarter than the March 2019 quarter and for investors it was 13.8% higher.  Despite the quarterly increase, the value of lending to owner-occupiers was -14.4% lower year-on-year and for investors it was -17.5% lower.  As the first chart highlights there has been a steady decline in housing lending demand over recent years however, the latest quarter suggests the flow of housing credit may have reached a turning point. One of the features of the market over recent years has been the reduction in new lending on interest-only terms.  Like overall lending, interest-only lending was actually 17.0% higher over the June quarter however, it was -19.6% lower year-on-year.  Interest-only mortgages made-up just 15.8% of new mortgages over the quarter, which was slightly higher than the recent low of 14.9%, but much lower than the decade average of 32.5%.  The reduction in interest-only lending has been driven by much higher mortgage rates for this product.  In fact, if you look at the total outstanding portfolio of interest-only mortgages it has fallen to $359.0 billion, which is its lowest value since September 2012 and its lowest overall share of outstanding mortgages, at 21.6%, any time since March 2008.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20for%20interest-only%20purposes.PNG" alt="Value and share of total new lending for interest-only purposes.PNG" width="1033" height="378" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b4786622-79bb-45e2-ad19-fa2b95a9551b" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20for%20interest-only%20purposes.PNG">
 Looking at other types of non-standard lending, over the quarter low-documentation loan approvals increased 33.6%, loans approved outside serviceability increased 4.1% and other non-standard loan approvals fell -21.7%.   Year-on-year, the changes were recorded at -52.8% for low-documentation loan approvals, -36.6% for loans approved outside of serviceability and -42.2% for other non-standard loans.  Low documentation loans were just 0.1% of the value of loans approved over the quarter while loans approved outside of serviceability were 4.0% (their lowest share since December 2017) while other non-standard loans were also just 0.1%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Quarterly%20new%20lending%20by%20loan%20types.PNG" alt="Quarterly new lending by loan types.PNG" width="1040" height="394" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0c10c8f9-a868-4b35-8664-a5ba5c47ca51" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Quarterly%20new%20lending%20by%20loan%20types.PNG">
 The latest data shows an uptick in high loan to valuation ratio (LVR) lending however, it remains well below historic levels.  Lending with an LVR greater than 80% means that the borrowers will typically have to take out lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI).  Over the quarter, there was $17.9 billion worth of mortgages written with an LVR greater than 80%, which was 22.4% of all commitments over the quarter.  The 22.4% share was the highest since December 2015 but remains well below its peak of 37.6% in March 2009.  
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20with%20LVR.PNG" alt="Value and share of total new lending with LVR.PNG" width="991" height="357" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58936e33-9672-4d5b-9568-a622e834b8ba" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Value%20and%20share%20of%20total%20new%20lending%20with%20LVR.PNG">
 Overall, the data from APRA shows that riskier lending; those loans with a high LVR, interest-only or non-standard mortgages remain a low proportion of new mortgages that are being written.  In saying that, there seems to have been a slight increase in the risk appetite over recent quarters and with macroprudential policies eased further during recent months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a further moderate increase in demand for non-standard and higher LVR mortgages over the coming quarters.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Riskier lending remains low according to APRA: Cameron Kusher

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ANZ Bank are the second of the big four to cut their savings rates in the last week.
They've cut their savings rates by up to 0.10 per cent, bringing their ongoing rate to 0.10 per cent, the worst of the big four.
ANZ also have the lowest introductory rate at 1.85 per cent for the first three months.
Big four banks standard savings account: Source RateCity <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/24/Bank%20savings%20rates.jpg" alt="">
Westpac cut their ongoing rate by 0.10 per cent last week.
Sally Tindall, research director at <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">RateCity.com.au</a>, said banks had begun to slash rates ahead of a further cut to the cash rate, which could come as soon as next week.
“ANZ and Westpac customers will now find it just that little bit harder to squeeze any sort of interest out of their bank,” she said.
“In many cases, ANZ customers are earing ongoing rates of just 0.10 per cent on their standard savings accounts, which makes them little more than a safe place to park your money.
“ANZ customers with a conditional savings account can get up to 1.85 per cent interest, but if they forget to meet the banks terms and conditions, it drops to as little as 0.01 per cent.
“Savers around the country are doing it incredibly tough, and for many its enough to throw their hands up in the air.
“That said, it’s still worth shopping around for a decent rate. <a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">RateCity.com.au</a>’s database shows some banks are still willing to offer ongoing rates of up to 2.50 per cent.
“Two of the banks offering ongoing rates of 2.50 per cent are neo banks, which suggests it could pay to look outside the box,” she said.
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ANZ cut savings rates as banks anticipate looming RBA cash rate cut

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The risks associated with natural disasters for home loans and house prices in Australia are increasing due to the growing frequency of such events, according to the latest report from Moody's Investor Service.
In their report they found this development is credit negative for Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) because it can lead to higher delinquencies and losses in the mortgages backing the deals.
However, the extent of mortgage delinquencies and losses caused by each individual natural disaster is likely to be moderate, given the geographic diversity of RMBS mortgage pools, insurance payouts and financial relief offered by lenders and governments.
Frequency of natural disasters is rising, increasing risks for home loans and RMBS.
Natural disasters can disrupt economic activity and therefore reduce borrowers' incomes, which can in turn lead to mortgage delinquencies and losses.
They can also result in significantly lower property values in affected areas.
Click to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%202.JPG" target="_blank">open in new window</a>:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%202.JPG" alt="">
Natural disasters hurt the home loan sector, but the impact is moderate and temporary. After recent natural disasters, mortgage delinquencies increased by only moderate amounts.
One example they cited was that shortly after cyclone Debbie, which hit Queensland in late March and early April 2017, the 30+ day delinquency rate for home loans that were in disaster-hit areas and part of the mortgage pools of RMBS  rate increased to 2.3% after the disaster from 2.0% before the event, and dropped to 1.9% eight months afterwards.
Click to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%201.JPG" target="_blank">open in new window</a>:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%201.JPG" alt="">
There are mitigating factors however which help keep home loan delinquencies moderate.
These mitigating factors include the geographic diversity of RMBS mortgage pools, the presence of insurance and the financial relief provided by lenders and government, Moody's Investor Service found.
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Natural disasters are growing risk for home loan sector: Moody's

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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This note is to confirm the RBA forecasts which we released on July 24 that the Bank will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on October 1 and again by 25 basis points on February 4, 2020.
That call updated our previous call on May 24 when we were the only forecaster (Bloomberg Survey on that day) to argue that the cash rate would fall below 1%.
Over the last few weeks markets had lost confidence in the October view. On September 13 markets priced an October move with a probability of 26%.
We were feeling decidedly lonely with our October call.
However, over the course of last week markets have moved to a 80% probability of this move.
What changed over the week?
The most important development was the release of the September RBA Board minutes.
From our perspective we were encouraged by the sentiments in the minutes.
Following the release of the minutes I wrote:
“The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s September meeting contain similar themes to the August minutes but indicate that the Board acknowledges that it is getting closer to its next move on policy.
In August the Board minutes concluded that: “Having eased monetary policy at the previous two meetings, the Board judged it appropriate to assess developments in the global and domestic economies before considering further change to the setting of monetary policy. Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggested this was needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
In these minutes there is no reference to previous actions. Arguably reference to previous actions is a clear sign that the Board is content to observe developments whereas not referring to previous actions there is less emphasis on the need to wait.
It is also interesting that the theme that drove the June and July decisions to cut rates: “the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” was repeated in these minutes whereas that particular theme was absent in the August minutes.
The minutes refer to three “developments that had a bearing on the monetary policy decision”.
- The labour market – strong employment growth was recognised but the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.2% (recall that the Governor has noted on other occasions that he would like to see the unemployment rate at 4.5%) and that wages growth “had remained low”. Indeed the minutes point out that “the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled”. We are aware that the Governor sees rising wages growth as the key to a sustained lift in spending growth and higher inflation. In addition the minutes noted that “forward – looking indicators had continued to suggest that employment growth would moderate over the following six months”.
- The housing market – it was noted that there was “a turnaround in established housing markets” but from the perspective of economic activity there was “further weakness in dwelling investment in the near term” and low turnover in the housing market meant that “spending on home furnishings and other housing related items was not expected to contribute to consumption growth in the near term”.
- GDP growth – the Board meeting was held the day before the release of the June quarter national accounts. When the RBA released its forecasts on August 9 it was expecting GDP growth in the June quarter to be 0.8%; in the minutes it referred to an expectation of 0.5% due to the weakness of the partials in the lead up to the release. That forecast proved to be correct but the minutes did note that “private final demand was expected to be weak”. (In fact it was flat in the June quarter and down 0.4% for the year! – “weak” is probably an overstatement of the state of final demand).
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BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40369/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Westpac's Bill Evans confirms October 1 rate cut forecast

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The National Australia Bank have brought forward their rate cut forecasts, now suggesting there will be a cut next month.
Their decision was based on the muted impact of the income tax cuts, which has "failed to offset growing weakness in the household sector."
"With monetary policy involving longer lags, we think the urgency to lower rates sooner has increased," NAB economists Gareth Spence and Kieran Davies said.
"We previously anticipated some further support from fiscal policy but now believe this is unlikely in the near term," they advised.
NAB have also brought forward their next rate cut to December, which would bring the official cash rate down to 0.5 per cent.
They had initially forecasted cuts in November and then February. They forecast the rate will drop down to 0.25 per cent by mid-2020 without meaningful fiscal stimulus.
"While strong public-sector spending has been a significant support to growth over the past year, as have exports of commodities, this pattern of growth suggests unemployment is likely to edge higher," Spence and Davies said.
"Our current forecasts look for this divergence to continue, with dwelling investment declining further and consumption growth remaining modest."
 
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NAB bring forward RBA cash rate cut to October

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The Melbourne Storm are set to launch their own branded home loan service.
It is set to pioneer sporting clubs offering its members access to financial products.
The Storm is launching Storm Money in partnership with the private My Local Broker.
My Local Broker will be the funder of the loans. My Local Broker is owned by Gerry Ryan, a part-owner and director of the Storm.
The Storm will share commissions. The members will be offered deals from about 40 or so different loan providers.
Storm chief executive Dave Donaghy said the concept arose from a survey of the club’s 25,000 members this year about their financial priorities.
“We looked at our sponsorship portfolio and found we had a gap in the banking sector,” Mr Donaghy told The Australian.
Almost 40 per cent of Storm members have home loans and close to 60 per cent told the club they were looking to refinance within a year, with 40 per cent saying they’d be likely or highly likely to change if offered an exclusive deal from a Storm sponsor.
 
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