<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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Australian Finance Group Ltd will merge with the mortgage aggregation business Connective Group Pty Ltd, according to their official website.
The partnership will create a "momentous national mortgage distribution network", with more than 6,575 brokers and $76 billion in combined mortgage settlements this financial year.
Connective Group Pty Ltd will reportedly receive $60 million in cash, and 30,886,441 AFG shares, as part of the agreement, with AFG to fund the bulk of the cash component through a new corporate debt facility.
The merged business will have a significant national footprint in Australia’s $1.8 trillion home loan market.
"The expanded distribution channel and broader diversification of products the combined group can supply will provide greater choice for both brokers and consumers," according to AFG Chairman Tony Gill.
Connective CEO Glenn Lees said "the coming together of the Connective and AFG teams is a natural fit".
While bound by a binding conditional implementation deed entered into by both parties, the agreement remains conditional until a court validates the legality of the transaction.
Official approval from both company’s shareholders, and from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), are also required before the merge can be executed.
AFG expects the merge to be completed in the second half of FY2020 (between June and September next year).
AFG has indicated their intent to "keep the market informed of progress of satisfaction of the conditions precedent to the transaction in accordance with its ASX continuous disclosure obligations".
Law firm Norton Rose Fulbright advised Connective Group on the deal valued at $120 million. 
The team was led by corporate M&amp;A partner Jasmine Sprange, restructuring partner Alex Mufford and special counsel Bernie Walrut, and was supported by special counsel Sarah Chen, senior associate Oliver Kabongo and associates Michael Phillips and Liya Wu, with specialist support from partners including Belinda Harvey.
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AFG to merge with mortgage aggregator Connective

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has said two things about unemployment in the past few weeks. Together, they lead to an inescapable conclusion.
The first was in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-05-21" target="_blank">May</a>, expanded on in a speech in <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-20" target="_blank">June</a>. At both times the published unemployment rate was 5.2%.
Lowe said in May that while the Reserve Bank had long thought an unemployment rate of 5% was the best that could be achieved without generating worrying inflation, that view has now changed:
From today’s perspective, I think we can do better than this. My judgement of the accumulating evidence is that the Australian economy can support an unemployment rate of below 5% without raising inflation concerns.
It was good news. And then it got better.
In June he put a number on how low the unemployment rate could go before inflation became a concern:
While it is not possible to pin the number down exactly, the evidence is consistent with an estimate below 5%, perhaps around 4.5%. Given that the current unemployment rate is 5.2%, this suggests that there is still spare capacity in our labour market.
The Reserve Bank should be able to cut interest rates until unemployment fell below 5% and approached 4.5% without worrying about inflation, Lowe argued.
And in May, in a report back from a board meeting, he made it clear that’s what he would do:
At that meeting, we discussed a scenario in which there was no further improvement in the labour market and the unemployment rate remained around the 5% mark. In this scenario, we judged that inflation was likely to remain low relative to the target and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.
It would likely be appropriate to cut interest rates and keep cutting until the unemployment rate was driven below 5%, continuing to cut until it approached 4.5%.
Today, appearing before the House of Representatives economics committee in Canberra with the unemployment rate still stuck at 5.2% despite two consecutive rate cuts, he delivered what on the face of it was bad news.
He said the bank’s central forecast was that the unemployment rate would stay above 5% again <a href="https://rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-08-09" target="_blank">until 2021</a>. That’s right, 2021.
But taking the two statements together, it is reasonable to conclude that the Reserve Bank will keep cutting rates until unemployment does fall below 5%. In other words, it will keep cutting rates until 2021.
<h2>Lowe ain’t done cutting…</h2>
Indeed, the Reserve Bank’s <a href="https://rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/pdf/economic-outlook.pdf" target="_blank">quarterly forecasts update</a>, released as Lowe spoke, countenances that happening. As foreshadowed by the governor, it forecasts that the unemployment rate won’t fall back to 5% until June 2021.
And it contains several other unwelcome forecasts: economic growth of just 2.5% this year, down from a previously forecast 2.75%, and very weak inflation this year of just 1.75%, down from a previously forecast 2%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287473/original/file-20190809-144888-lxfnms.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/aug/" target="_blank">RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 9, 2019</a>
<hr>
But here’s the thing. All of those forecasts were compiled, as is the Reserve Bank’s custom, by taking into account not only the two interest rate cuts that have already happened (and have taken the bank’s cash rate down to an all-time low of 1%), but also two more yet to be delivered.
It is explained in the footnote:
Technical assumptions set on 7 August include the cash rate moving in line with market pricing.
The “market pricing” is the consensus of the bets placed on the futures market for what the Reserve Bank is going to do to its cash rate.
The consensus is for another cut of 0.25% in October and then another cut of 0.25% in February, taking the cash rate down to yet another all-time low of just 0.5%.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287484/original/file-20190809-144838-1xymcob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm" target="_blank">ASX target rate tracker</a>
<hr>
The Reserve Bank is normally at pains to point out that this is a mere technical assumption, not a guarantee of how it will move rates. But the awful truth is that its forecasts imply that unless it cut rates two more times in coming months, unemployment won’t fall to 5% by 2021, and inflation will be even weaker than the incredibly weak 1.75% it is forecasting.
<h2>…and he might not stop at zero</h2>
Two more cuts in its cash rate will take it to 0.5%, close to zero.
Lowe revealed that the Reserve Bank is investigating so-called “unconventional” monetary policy or <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/eea5d0b8-72e9-4b5e-acf8-52ed46888ced/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_08_09_7100.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf" target="_blank">quantitative easing</a> that would have the same effect as taking the cash rate below zero.
“It is prudent for us to have done the work in advance to see what we would do – it’s really contingency planning,” he said.
Rates might go to zero, or below, worldwide because right now there is a worldwide glut of savings, and not enough investment.
The reality we face is that, if a lot of people want to save and not many people want to use those savings to build new capital, savers are going to get low returns. We can move our interest rates around this new structurally lower level,but we can’t escape the fact that global interest rates are low.
The Reserve Bank’s best case is that its Australian forecasts are wrong - that unemployment actually falls and that inflation, wage growth and economic growth climb.
There’s a respectable view within the bank that this might happen. Its forecasts take into account a range of positive influences, including lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, the depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation in the housing market, and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure.
But they are the result of a mechanical model that takes them into account individually. The governor’s hope is that, taken together, they will achieve more than is forecast.
He would like governments themselves to push things along, starting with the wages they pay their own employees, and he is becoming ever more bold about saying so:
Most public sectors have wage caps of 2.5%, some have 1.5%, I think in Western Australia it’s probably even lower. I can understand why governments are doing that. On the other hand, the wage caps in the public sector are cementing low wage norms across the country. Over time, I hope the whole system, including the public sector, could see wages rising at three point something.
He is as good as powerless to stop what he regards as a worldwide investment strike caused by the trade and technology disputes between the United States and China.
These disputes pose a significant risk to the global economy. Not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world. Worryingly, this uncertainty is leading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered.
Lowe doesn’t believe further interest rate cuts would to do much to encourage businesses to invest, or to encourage home buyers to borrow.
But he is certain they will help in other ways.
They will lower the exchange rate, making Australian goods and services more competitive, and that they will free up the cash of Australians who already have home loans, what he calls the “cash flow” channel:
There is no evidence that has become less effective. It is certainly true that in the current environment, at least in my view, monetary policy is less effective than it used to be. In today’s environment people don’t run off to the bank to borrow more when interest rates fall; they are more likely to pay back their mortgage more quickly. So that dynamic is different than it used to be.
When he last appeared before the parliamentary committee in February he said the probabilities of rates going up and rates going down were <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2019_02_22_6971_Official.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commrep/b9c7ee3a-c926-4f3e-acc4-cf5b8809f649/0000%22">evenly balanced</a>. He didn’t say that today.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin.</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates-121690" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Governor Lowe points to even lower rates: Peter Martin

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The RBA kept rates on hold at the August meeting, following back to back rate cuts to bring the official cash rate down to a record low one percent.
It had previously stood at a historic low 1.5% before the latest cuts. The rate hadn't been cut since August 2016 when it was brought down from 1.75%.
Today the RBA have released their chart pack, which highlights key factors in the Australian economy.
Property Observer takes a look at four key charts which will have been strong influencers in the decision to cut the official interest rate.
Consumer Price Inflation ticked up slightly
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20Price%20Inflation%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 0.6 percent over the June quarter, slightly higher than expectations. 
The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter.
Westpac had been <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-forecast-to-rise-for-june-quarter-westpacs-justin-smirk">forecasting a 0.5% rise</a> in the June quarter CPI, taking the annual pace to a 1.5% rise from 1.3%.
IFM economist Alex Joiner says the figures were a slight upside surprise, however it is inline with expectations on core measures. 
Household disposable income rose slightly, but it's not translating into increased consumption yet.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Household%20Income%20and%20Consumption%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Disposable income has bucked its steady, ongoing decline after it nearly hit 0%. 
Consumption has carried on declining, but the RBA will be keen to see disposable income rise given the recent rate cuts.
Consumer sentiment continues to rise
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Consumer%20sentiment%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continued its upward trend following the federal election outcome having dipped below the average index earlier in the year.
It is now equalling, and bettering, levels in boom time 2015 and 2016.
Housing prices starts to rebound.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/8/Housing%20Prices%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
House prices have started to stabilise after a long downward trend which saw them approach 10% declines.
Statistics from the ABS, APM, Residex and CoreLogic all show a turnaround.
To download the full chart pack in full, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2019-08-08-09-10-56" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
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The four charts that prompted the RBA keep rates on hold in August

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.00%. The Reserve Bank previously cut rates in both June and July, each time by 25 basis points or a quarter of a%.
What has changed since the last meeting?
<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has intensified.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The International Monetary Fund revised its 2019 estimate for global growth from 3.3% to 3.2%.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Australian jobless rate was steady at 5.2% in June.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Job ads rose 0.8% in July after a 4.6% increase in June (the biggest monthly gain in 18 months).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Capital city home prices rose by 0.1% in July – the biggest rise in almost two years.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Private sector credit rose by just 0.1% in June. Annual credit growth is 3.3% – a 5½-year low.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Retail trade rose by 0.4% in June.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>In real terms retail trade rose 0.2% in the June quarter after falling 0.1% in the March quarter.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in the June quarter to be up 1.6% on the year.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Both the All Ordinaries and ASX200 share indexes hit record highs.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Australian dollar has held around US67-69 cents.</li>
</ul>
The assessment
Reserve Bank policymakers have again left the door open to further rate cuts “if needed” – the latter two words also being used in the July interest rate decision.
The Reserve Bank hopes it has done enough so it is not called on to cut rates again. But the Bank has made it clear that even if rates aren’t cut, that rates will stay low for an “extended period”.
Inflation is not expected to be in the 2-3% target band until 2021.
The Reserve Bank releases its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. And the Reserve Bank Governor delivers testimony to Parliamentarians on the same day.
Perspectives on interest rates
In July the Reserve Bank Board cut the cash rate by 25 basis points (quarter of a%) to 1.00% after a similar cut in June. There have now been 14 rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75%.
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00% to 4.75%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/7/home%20prices.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/7/home%20prices.jpg" alt="">
What are the implications of today’s decision?
Interest rates are at record lows and the Reserve Bank isn’t expecting to lift rates for some time.
At the same time, share markets have become more volatile given the trade war between the US and China. So investors will need to be vigilant.
Returns on shares and property still look to outperform other assets classes. But diversification is important in the current environment as is the need to maintain a defensive cash component in portfolios.
CRAIG JAMES is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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An “extended period of low interest rates” ahead: Commsec's Craig James

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As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00% at today’s Board meeting.
In terms of the signalling of future policy, we were most interested as to whether the final sentence in the Governor’s decision statement would retain the wording “ease monetary policy further if needed”,  we saw in the July decision statement. That wording implied that some time would be required to assess the next move.
It contrasted with the June decision statement where “if needed” was not used, indicating a preparedness to cut at the next meeting.
In August, “if needed” was again used, and accordingly, we remain comfortable with our forecast that the next rate cut will come at the October meeting rather than the September meeting.
The decision statement which precedes the release of the RBA’s revised forecasts on the following Friday can also provide an early indication of those revisions. In this statement, we are given the revisions for growth, underlying inflation and the unemployment rate out to the new forecast horizon of end 2021 (previous horizon ended in June 2021).
For growth, the RBA has revised down its forecast for 2019 from 2 ¾ per cent to 2 ½ per cent – in line with our preview which printed on August 2. That is not surprising given that growth in the first half of 2019 is likely to print around 1 per cent, making the previous forecast of 2 ¾ per cent highly unlikely.
However it has retained its forecast for 2020 of 2 ¾ – around trend growth. Westpac still sees those forecasts as too high – favouring 2 ¼ per cent in 2019 and 2 ½ per cent respectively.
For underlying inflation, the previous forecasts were 1 ¾ per cent in 2019, 2 per cent in 2020 and 2 per cent in the year to June 2021.
When the June quarter trimmed mean printed 0.4%, following a 0.3% in the March quarter, we revised up our estimate of the where the RBA would forecast 2019 from 1 ½ per cent to 1 ¾ per cent.
We argued at the time that such a forecast would be an unrealistic stretch but assumed that the RBA would want to maintain a forecast of 2 per cent in 2020.
Accordingly, we welcome the cautious approach to the new 2020 forecast for underlying inflation, which is now described as “a little under 2 per cent for 2020”. That is likely to imply a forecast of 1 ¾ per cent, indicating recognition that the RBA will miss the 2-3 per cent target band for another year.
Somewhat offsetting that discouraging forecast is the forecast for the whole of 2021 of “a little above 2 per cent”. So we have gone from a forecast of 2 per cent in 2020 and 2 per cent in the year to June 2021, to 1 ¾ per cent in 2020 and 2 ¼ per cent in 2021.
While the 1 ¾ per cent looks realistic, the jump of ½ of a percentage point to 2 ¼ per cent looks like a stretch.
Previously the unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 5 per cent to December 2020 before falling to 4 ¾ per cent by June 2021.
Recall that the starting point for these forecasts is 5.24% for June 2019, posing a challenge to reach 5 per cent when the forecast growth rate is below trend in 2019 and only at-trend in 2020.
The new forecasts have the unemployment rate drifting down to 5 per cent “over the next couple of years”. That therefore represents an increase in the unemployment outlook, given that the previous forecasts factored in 4 ¾ per cent by June 2021.
Such a forecast is well above the Governor’s informal “target” of 4.5%.
Consequently, the decision statement signals that the RBA will be forecasting less progress on the inflation and unemployment targets than had been expected in the May Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP)( which assumed two rate cuts by year’s end). And of course, we must bear in mind that these new forecasts are based around market pricing which now includes two 25bp rate cuts having been delivered and the prospect of nearly two further cuts to come.
In addition, the May forecasts assumed an AUD of USD 0.70 , compared to current pricing of USD 0.68.
So the RBA finds itself in a position where even if market pricing for further cuts proves to be accurate, it still expects that it will have to wait another year until underlying inflation returns to the 2-3 per cent target band and the unemployment rate drops back to its level of a few months ago.
Little wonder that the Governor notes “it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress on reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target”. This guidance for low rates for an extended period comes as a new  policy tool.
The commentary around the housing market is somewhat more positive with the Sydney and Melbourne markets being described as “some signs of a turnaround” compared to the July description of “tentative signs that prices are now stabilising”.
Some themes around the labour market are consistent with July with employment growth being described as strong, but little inroads being made into reducing spare capacity.
One significant change is a less confident note around wages. In July, the commentary was “a further gradual lift in wages growth is still expected”, whereas in today’s statement, “a further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development”.
Given the developments in the global economy, particularly over the last few days, we are surprised that the RBA is still only talking about the risks being only “tilted to the downside”. We will expect that a more detailed analysis of these risks will be available in the August SMP, which will print on August 9.
Conclusion
We are very comfortable with our view that the RBA has more work to do. Its revised forecasts paint an increasing challenge around both inflation and unemployment. There is also  recognition that growth will be below trend in 2019 and is unlikely to exceed trend in the forecast period.
It still remains possible, that the RBA will choose September as the next date for a rate cut, but given that they must  see limited future flexibility, we expect that they will be a little patient by moving  next in October, and laying  the foundation for another move in February next year, when additional unconventional policies might be used to sharpen the effectiveness of the rate cut.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-20" target="_blank">Read full RBA Statement</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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RBA points to further cuts: Bill Evans 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA remained on hold at a record low cash rate of 1% at its August board meeting as widely expected. This followed 0.25% rate cuts in June and July.
The Bank’s post meeting statement was dovish:
<ul type="disc">
<li>referring to the downside risks to global growth from the trade war;</li>
<li>revising down yet again its GDP growth forecast to around 2.5% for this year (from 2.75%);</li>
<li>noting that wages growth remains subdued with little upwards pressure; and</li>
<li>indicating that inflation will take longer than earlier expected to reach 2%.</li>
</ul>
The final paragraph repeated Governor Lowe’s recently used forward guidance to expect an “extended period of low interest rates” and noted that the Board stands ready to ease monetary policy again if needed, indicating that the Bank retains an easing bias.
For now the RBA is in wait and see mode – basically waiting to see what sort of boost to growth the rate cuts of June and July and the Federal Government’s tax cuts for low and middle income earners provide.  Baring a shock to the economy this is likely to remain the case for a few months.
However, while the rate cuts seen so far and the Federal Government’s tax cuts will help, we see unemployment drifting up to around 5.5% by year end in contrast to the RBA’s expectation for a fall to around 5% over the next couple of years. The stimulus to date won’t be enough to get wages growth up and inflation back to target and so we expect the RBA to resume cutting rate later this year with 0.25% cuts in each of November and February.
Help from more fiscal stimulus and structural reforms is needed but this will take time to come through and impact the economy so the pressure remains on the RBA in the short term. And the escalating US/China trade war adds to this pressure to the extent that it threatens demand for Australian exports and business confidence locally.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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RBA on hold but expect cash rate of 0.5% by February 2020

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has made the decision to leave the nation’s official cash rate unchanged at 1.00%.
The Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the cash rate steady this month was prudent. A third cut so soon after two consecutive cuts in June and July would not have given policy makers enough time to see if the cuts had any marked effect on the economy.
The latest economic data has provided the Reserve Bank with no incentive to reduce the cash rate three times in as many months, encouraging the Bank to continue its historically cautious approach towards monetary policy.
In encouraging news for the housing market, the latest CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index revealed that national dwelling values stabilised in July as five of the eight capital cities recorded a rise, supported by a 0.2% increase in values in both Sydney and Melbourne.
It seems that two consecutive cuts to the cash rate, and tax relief from the Government were not enough to improve consumer outlook. The Westpac Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment revealed that consumer sentiment deteriorated in July, as concerns over the economy continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. On a positive note, the index revealed that housing-related sentiment improved in response to lower interest rates.
The latest monthly business survey from the National Australia Bank revealed that business confidence fell over June and while business conditions rose, they remain well below average. The survey also revealed that outlook for business conditions over the next few months is weak, which may put further downward pressure on the labour market going forward.
In the minutes of its July Board meeting, RBA board members suggested they continue to track developments in the labour market. Members agreed that the Australian economy could sustain a lower rate of unemployment, while achieving inflation consistent with the target.
Given that the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in the ABS’ most recent Labour Force Survey, the RBA may not have felt another cut was necessary at this time. That being said, the inflation rate came in under the RBA’s expectations once more, with June quarter figures revealing a CPI quarterly percentage change of 0.6% and a year ended percentage change of 1.6%, well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. While financial markets are expecting another 25 basis point cut this year, the important thing for borrowers and future borrowers alike to keep in mind is that interest rates are currently sitting at historic lows. I would encourage anyone thinking of buying a home or investment property to speak to their local Mortgage Choice mortgage broker to learn what their borrowing power is and what home loan options are available to them. Mortgage Choice brokers can assess your financial situation, and help you get home buying ready. With access to a panel of over 25 lenders, with varied lending policies and preferences, we can help borrowers get the most suitable deal for their circumstances, whatever the cash rate.
SUSAN MITCHELL is the Mortgage Choice CEO
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RBA hits pause in August: Mortgage Choice's Susan Mitchell

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. However, the increased uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes is affecting investment and means that the risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside. In most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. The slowdown in global trade has contributed to slower growth in Asia. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The persistent downside risks to the global economy combined with subdued inflation have led a number of central banks to reduce interest rates this year and further monetary easing is widely expected. Long-term government bond yields have declined further and are at record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are also at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times.
Economic growth in Australia over the first half of this year has been lower than earlier expected, with household consumption weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Looking forward, growth in Australia is expected to strengthen gradually from here. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2½ per cent over 2019 and 2¾ per cent over 2020. The outlook is being supported by the low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, although a pick-up in growth in household disposable income and a stabilisation of the housing market are expected to support spending.
Employment has grown strongly over recent years and labour force participation is at a record high. There has, however, been little inroad into the spare capacity in the labour market recently, with the unemployment rate having risen slightly to 5.2 per cent. The unemployment rate is expected to decline over the next couple of years to around 5 per cent. Wages growth remains subdued and there is little upward pressure at present, with strong labour demand being met by more supply. Caps on wages growth are also affecting public-sector pay outcomes across the country. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
The recent inflation data were broadly as expected and confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued across much of the economy. Over the year to the June quarter, inflation was 1.6 per cent in both headline and underlying terms. The central scenario remains for inflation to increase gradually, but it is likely to take longer than earlier expected for inflation to return to 2 per cent. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be a little under 2 per cent over 2020 and a little above 2 per cent over 2021.
Conditions in most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors continues to be subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Most housing markets remain soft: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's August 2019 meeting statement

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The RBA has held the cash rate at a record low one percent at its August meeting.
The decision follows slightly <a href="/expert-insights/investing/cpi-rises-0-6-percent-in-june-quarter">higher inflation than predicted</a> for Q2 2019.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said most housing markets remain soft, although there are some signs of a turnaround, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says the decision to hold the cash rate was expected.
"The pause in the cutting cycle will give the RBA time to assess the effects of earlier rate cuts on the economy and consumer spending, however there is a strong likelihood of at least one more cut later this year," Lawless says.
"The housing market has been a key beneficiary of lower mortgage rates, with a trend towards stability over the first half of the year converting to a subtle rise in capital city housing values in July. 
"With mortgage rates set to remain low for an extended period of time, as flagged by RBA Governor Lowe in a speech last month, and potentially move even lower later this year, we are expecting to see the housing market move into a gradual recovery, however with credit policies remaining tight and economic uncertainty still elevated, we aren’t expecting a material acceleration in housing activity or housing values."
Finder's latest RBA Survey found that economists and experts predicted small gains across every capital city market.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it's too soon to tell if this is an emerging recovery in the housing market or merely a 'dead-cat bounce'.
“In finance, the saying is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great heights," Cooke says.
“Most economists surveyed foresee small levels of growth across the board, but a few tipped prices to tumble, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where one expert predicted a 7% drop.
“Whether you see this as a falling feline or the beginning of a true rebound, it’s clear that the full effects of the RBA’s recent cuts have yet to play out.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/881b878c-2e84-4824-9ea6-abb2854b4aa9.png" width="610" height="443">
“However, after one of the strongest weekend clearance rates in Sydney in recent months (71%), there is definitely a detectable pulse,” Cooke said.
Canberra is expected to be the best performer with 2.27% gains. Sydney and Melbourne are looking at 1.48% and $1.57% gains respectively.
Cooke said those considering getting on the property ladder need to get their ducks in a row.
“Prospective first time buyers should look at arranging pre<a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=72671b9013&amp;e=f2176dbcf8" target="_blank">-</a>approval for finance soon if they want to take advantage of low rates before prices increase.”
<div><img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/2027eefe-611e-46ff-974f-dd622ad3779f.png" width="613" height="445"></div>
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RBA holds rates after two consecutive cuts

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Since home loan rates have hit new historic lows in July after two 0.25 percentage point rate cuts from the Reserve Bank in the last two months, now is a great time to be a borrower.
Never before have we seen home loan rates this low. 
The property market is showing early signs of recovery, regulators have eased home loan serviceability guidelines and lenders are cutting rates.
The fees involved in refinancing have come down a lot in the last few years and lenders are actively competing for business.
In short, and depending on your personal situation, conditions seem quite attractive for borrowers and home buyers right now.
There are now so many lenders offering variable headline home loan rates under four per cent, it really is the perfect time to borrow.
And there is an increasing number of lenders going under three per cent, which is quite amazing.
The lowest advertised home loan rates currently listed by InfoChoice are:
Variable rate: 2.89 per cent p.a. (comparison rate 2.89 per cent p.a.) from Reduce Home Loan’s <a id="LPlnk67204" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/product/home-loans/reduce-home-loans/low-rider-variable-56868" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Low Rider Variable</a> loan.
Fixed rate: 2.79 per cent p.a. (comparison rate 4.17 per cent p.a.) from Greater Bank’s <a id="LPlnk850745" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/product/home-loans/greater-bank-limited/great-rate-fixed-home-loan-13426" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">12 month Fixed</a> Home Loan.
The highest savings rates currently listed by InfoChoice are:
At-call savings accounts: 2.55 per cent p.a. max bonus rate (base rate 1.15 per cent) from <a id="LPlnk827466" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/product/banking/savings-account/rams/rams-saver-24819" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">RAMS Saver</a> (make $200 deposit &amp; no withdrawals in a month)
12 month Term Deposits: 2.5 per cent p.a. from <a id="LPlnk215455" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/product/banking/term-deposits/qudos-bank/term-deposits-20011" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">Qudos Bank</a>.
VADIM TAUBE is the Chief Executive Officer of <a href="https://www.infochoice.com.au" target="_blank">InfoChoice</a>
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