A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who thought that with the Reserve Bank’s cash rate now close to zero, its run of interest rate cuts was over, needs only to read the last sentence of Governor Philip Lowe’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-27" target="_blank">announcement</a> after Tuesday’s cut:
The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
For the longest time, the run of cuts was over.
Lowe’s immediate predecessor, Glenn Stevens, cut the cash rate to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016 as something of a “parting gift”, allowing Lowe to take over and keep it steady, unchanged for a record 34 months.
For most of those three years he made it clear the rate was unlikely to fall further. <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/search/?q=%22rather+than+down%22+lowe+-%22card%22#gsc.tab=0&amp;gsc.q=%22rather%20than%20down%22%20lowe%20-%22card%22&amp;gsc.page=1" target="_blank">Six times</a> he said the next move in rates was likely to be up, “rather than down”, pointing to rate increases overseas and progress on jobs and returning Australia’s unusually low inflation rate to his target band.
By February this year he <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-02-22" target="_blank">was backtracking</a>. Although it wasn’t apparent in the published figures, the unemployment rate was about to begin climbing. Wage growth had been far weaker than forecast, inflation showed no sign of returning to the centre of his target band, and forecasts for global growth were falling.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294952/original/file-20191001-173393-1b2cjw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294952/original/file-20191001-173393-1b2cjw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Source: RBA</a>
<hr>
More importantly, consumer spending, which accounts for six in every ten dollars spent in Australia, was extraordinarily weak, growing at less than half the usual rate, as households “responded to this extended period of weaker income growth by progressively downgrading their spending plans”.
The probabilities of next move being up and down had become “more evenly balanced”.
Two weeks after the May election he cut the cash rate, then cut it again, taking it to a new record low of 1%, anticipated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315" target="_blank">only two</a> of the 19 economists surveyed by The Conversation just six months earlier.
The extra cut announced on Tuesday is because the last two didn’t do enough.
House prices have begun to move up (as would be expected with lower rates) but borrowing is growing only slowly, and home building is weak. The Australian dollar is low (in part because of the lower rates), which should help make Australian businesses competitive, but they are not keen to borrow.
Since the last Reserve Bank board meeting we have learned that economic growth is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-weve-the-weakest-economy-since-the-global-financial-crisis-with-few-clear-ways-out-122942" target="_blank">shockingly low</a>, just 1.4% over the past year, the weakest since the global financial crisis. Household spending is barely keeping pace with population growth.
Lowe would like to believe the economy has reached “a gentle turning point”. He told a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-10-01" target="_blank">community dinner</a> in Melbourne on Tuesday night the board thinks it might have.
There are a number of factors that are supporting this outlook. These include the low level of interest rates, the recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets, and a brighter outlook for the resources sector.
But they will need help. The bank believes the economy is capable of producing an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Instead it has been climbing, to 5.3%.
<h2>How the cuts will help</h2>
The cash rate is determined by the rate the Reserve Bank pays banks who deposit with it overnight. It drives almost every other rate, including the rates banks pay retail depositors, which help determine their cost of lending.
They don’t have to cut their mortgage and business rates in line with cuts in the Reserve Bank cash rate, but they usually do.
The big banks played a game of chicken yesterday, each waiting for the other to move. The Commonwealth Bank moved first, offering just 0.13 of the 0.25 points, followed by the National Australia Bank, which offered 0.15 points.
The real action is in the discounted rates that target borrowers for whom they matter. Before Tuesday they averaged 3.46%. Some were much lower. HSBC Australia wanted just 3.17%. If it passes on Tuesday’s cut in full it will charge only 2.92%, offering the first Australian mortgage rate in history beginning with the number “2”.
There’s every reason to believe the cuts will help. Even if Australians don’t borrow more to buy houses, they will be able to use the historically cheap credit embodied in their house loans to buy other things, such as solar panels whose payoff period will have shortened dramatically.
Since June many mortgage-holders will have saved A$150 on monthly payments.
Sure, confidence and decent wage growth would help, but given how indebted many Australians are, low mortgage rates will do quite a bit on their own.
<h2>Why they’ll continue</h2>
Governor Lowe made it clear on Tuesday that they will have to stay low for “an extended period”. A <a href="https://rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/stmt-conduct-mp-7-2016-09-19" target="_blank">signed agreement with the treasurer</a> requires him to keep them low until unemployment falls and inflation and economic growth return to return to normal levels.
He would like the government to help by boosting spending. He often mentions spending on infrastructure. But his employment contract requires him to use the cards he has been dealt. If the economy is weak, he is required to boost it using the instruments he has.
That’s why he says he is prepared “to ease monetary policy further”.
If needed, he’ll do it as soon as next month, cutting the cash rate to 0.5%. If more is needed beyond that, he will get ready to use so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/below-zero-is-reverse-how-the-reserve-bank-would-make-quantitative-easing-work-118843" target="_blank">unconventional measures</a> of the kind being used overseas, buying government and corporate bonds in order to force even more money into Australian’s hands.
There’s no reason to believe that the tools he has won’t work, and every reason to believe he’ll keep using them.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124499/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/0-75-is-a-record-low-but-dont-think-for-a-second-the-reserve-bank-has-finished-cutting-the-cash-rate-124499" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

0.75% is a record low, but don’t think for a second the Reserve Bank has finished cutting the cash rate

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Westpac are the last of the big four to fail to pass on the full rate cut.
They've <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-and-cba-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">cut the same amount as NAB</a>, dropping their variable home loan rates by 15 basis points.
Commonwealth Bank drops their rates by just 0.13 per cent, the lowest out of the big four. ANZ were <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anz-cut-interest-rates-by-just-0-14">the third to cut their rates</a>, by 0.14 per cent.
“Westpac will be decreasing interest rates by 15 basis points for variable home loan customers, bringing our Standard Variable Rate (SVR) to the lowest we have on record for owner occupiers with principal and interest repayments,” David Lindberg, Westpac chief executive, consumer said.
“In making the decision, we took into account the reduction of the official cash rate and the commercial pressures of the low interest rate environment.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/Westpac%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
“For an owner occupier customer with a standard variable home loan of $400,000 on principal and interest repayments, this reduction could result in a saving of $36 per month, or $432 each year.
“Providing the support and finance to help Australians into their homes is a core part of our business strategy.
"Today’s announcement will assist customers wanting to get ahead on home loan repayments, as well as new home buyers looking to purchase a property,” Lindberg said.
The following interest rate changes will come into effect on Wednesday 16 October 2019:
<ul>
<li>Variable home loan (owner occupier) rate has been reduced by .15% p.a. to 4.83% p.a. for customers with principal and interest repayments.</li>
<li>Variable residential investment property loan rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.38% p.a. for customers with principal and interest repayments.</li>
<li>Variable home loan (owner occupier) rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.42% p.a. for customers with interest only repayments.</li>
<li>Variable residential investment property loan rate reduced by .15% p.a. to 5.64% p.a. for customers with interest only repayments.</li>
</ul>
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Westpac the final big four bank to fail to pass on full rate cut

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The ANZ have followed suit in the so-called battle of the big four banks.
They've only cut their standard variable rates by 0.14 per cent. 
The move follows <a href="/expert-insights/finance/nab-and-cba-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">CBA cutting 0.14 per cent and NAB 0.15 per cent</a>. 
Westpac have just <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-the-final-big-four-bank-to-fail-to-pass-on-full-rate-cut">cut their rates by 0.15 per cent</a>.
“This was a considered decision balancing the needs of our customers in a low rate environment as well as the performance of our business and our role in stimulating the economy," ANZ Group executive Australia retail &amp; commercial, Mark Hand said.
<ul>
<li>For Standard Variable Rate Owner Occupiers paying Principal &amp; Interest the Index Rate will reduce by 0.14%pa to 4.79%pa</li>
<li>For Standard Variable Rate Investors paying Interest Only the Index Rate will reduce by 0.25%pa to 5.74%pa</li>
</ul>
Changes to variable rates are effective 11 October 2019.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/ANZ%20Rate%20Cut.jpg" alt="">
“We were able to match the full rate reduction in July and the majority in June, however the dynamics of record low interest rates has resulted in a reduction in variable home lending rates of between 0.14%pa and 0.25%pa this time around.
“While we recognise many customers will use this as an opportunity to pay down their existing home loans faster, we hope this provides the economic stimulus the Reserve Bank is wanting to generate. 
“We have also announced a new fixed rate of 2.98%pa for home owners paying principal and interest with either two or three year terms available from tomorrow. This is the lowest residential rate on record for ANZ,” Mr Hand said.
The new standard variable rate for owner occupiers paying principal and interest will come in to effect on October 11, bringing it to 4.79 per cent. 
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ANZ cut interest rates by just 0.14%

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The RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaking after the RBA cut the official cash rate to 0.75 per cent.
Good evening. On behalf of the Reserve Bank Board I would like to thank you for joining us at this community dinner. The Board held its monthly meeting here in Melbourne today. This was the first meeting that we have held in our new offices on Collins Street after last year selling our building on the corner of Collins and Exhibition Streets. So even if we are in a different location, it is really good to be back in Melbourne.
As you are probably aware, at our meeting today, the Board decided to cut the cash rate by a quarter of one per cent to 0.75 per cent.
This decision followed a detailed assessment of both global and domestic developments.
Globally, the main issue at the moment is the uncertainty generated by a series of geopolitical events, particularly the US–China disputes over trade and technology. Understandably, this uncertainty is causing many firms around the world to sit and wait before proceeding with costly investment decisions. At the same time, many businesses are having to deal with disruptions to their supply chains. The result of all this is that after a period of reasonable growth in the global economy, the risks are clearly to the downside.
Central banks are responding to these downside risks by lowering interest rates. With inflation low – and expected to remain low – they are seeking to take out some insurance against the possibility of a noticeable slowdown in economic growth.
From a longer-term perspective though, central banks have for some time been responding to fundamental shifts in the global appetite to save and invest. The underlying explanation for low interest rates globally is that the global appetite to save is high relative to the global appetite to invest.
Like many things in economics it comes down to supply and demand. When the global supply of savings is high relative to the global demand for funding to invest in new capital, the price of savings – or the global interest rate – is going to be low. There are certainly other factors at play as well, but savings and investment decisions are at the heart of the issue.
This means that the key to a return to more normal interest rates globally is addressing the factors that are leading to the low appetite to invest, relative to the appetite to save. This is mainly a task for governments and businesses, not for central banks. Whether or not this will happen, only time will tell. But as a central bank in a small open economy we have to take the world as we find it. While we might wish it were otherwise, we can't ignore these global trends and their impact on our economy. So, the Board is watching these global developments.
Domestically, the Board today discussed how the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point. The economy has been through a soft patch recently, but we are expecting a return to around trend growth over the next year. There are a number of factors that are supporting this outlook. These include the low level of interest rates, the recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets, and a brighter outlook for the resources sector. Together, these factors provide a reasonable basis for expecting that the economy will remain on an improving trend from here.
The Board has also been paying close attention to the labour market. Over recent years, employment growth has consistently surprised on the upside, which is good news. At the same time, the strong demand for workers has been met with strong growth in the supply of available workers, with the participation rate now at a record high. Partly as a result of this flexibility on the supply side, unemployment is a little higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and there has not been much upward pressure on wages. In turn, this has contributed to the extended run of inflation outcomes below the medium-term target range.
In considering these developments today, the Board decided that it was appropriate to ease monetary policy further. We are seeking to make more assured progress towards both full employment and the inflation target. We still expect to make progress on both fronts, but that progress is slower than we would like. Today's decision will help.
In reaching that decision, the Board recognises that the impact of monetary policy on the economy has changed over time, and that there can be some undesirable side effects from low interest rates. The many people who write to me saying how low interest rates are hurting their finances serve as a constant reminder of this.
But, importantly, the Board also recognises that monetary policy still works. It works to support employment, jobs and income growth across the economy. Today's decision, together with our decisions in June and July, will assist on each of these fronts. In doing so, these decisions will promote the collective economic welfare of the Australian people, which we need to remember is the ultimate goal of monetary policy.
Even so, my earlier point about the solution to low interest rates globally is relevant here in Australia too. We will all be better off if businesses have the confidence to expand, invest, innovate and hire people. Given Australia's strong longer-term fundamentals this should not be out of our reach, but it does require constant effort. One part of this effort could be a renewed focus on structural measures to lift the nation's productivity performance.
At our meeting today, as well as considering monetary policy, the Board had its six-monthly deep dive into financial stability issues. On Friday, the Bank will be releasing the results of this in our <cite>Financial Stability Review</cite>. Ahead of that, I would highlight three issues we discussed.
The first is that internationally, there seems to be a disconnect between the uncertainty that investors feel about the economic situation and the compensation that they require for holding risk. Normally when people feel uncertain about the future, they want to be compensated for taking on risk. At the moment though, despite the uncertainty, credit spreads are low and asset prices are generally high. At our meeting today we talked about the possibility that a shock somewhere in the global system could cause a recalibration, leading to a disruptive repricing of risk.
The second issue is that the resilience of Australia's financial system has steadily improved over recent times. The core capital ratios of our banks are now well within the top quartile of banks around the world. Our banks are well placed to withstand a wide range of shocks and their position will be further strengthened as they meet requirements to increase their loss absorbing capacity further over the next few years.
Lending standards have also been strengthened, although in some areas the pendulum may have swung a bit too far. It is important that our financial institutions support small businesses in particular. Lenders should not be so scared of making a loan that goes bad that they don't provide the credit that the economy needs.
One other risk area that we are paying close attention to is cyber and technology risks. Banks' systems have become more complex and digital platforms are now key to banking. We need to make sure that these systems are safe and resilient.
The third issue is that while the Australian household sector has a high level of debt, it has also built up substantial buffers. All up, the balances in mortgage offset accounts and redraw facilities amount to 16 per cent of outstanding housing debt. This is equivalent to around 2½ years of required mortgage payments at current interest rates. It is important to recognise though that this figure masks a lot of variation across households. We estimate that around a quarter of households with a mortgage have either no buffer or a very small one.
Loan arrears remain low, although they have risen over recent years. Also, we estimate that for almost 4 per cent of borrowers their current loan balance exceeds the value of their property. Over half of these borrowers are in Western Australia where there has been a large and persistent decline in housing prices. So this is an area that bears watching.
On a completely different matter, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that we will be releasing the new $20 note next week, on 9 October. This note is printed here in Melbourne, at our printing works in Craigieburn. I have brought along a few notes tonight hot off the presses for you to have a look at.
I sometimes get asked why the Reserve Bank is replacing the existing series of banknotes, especially when more of us are moving to electronic payments. People also wonder with contactless payments now so ubiquitous, do we still need banknotes?
Given these questions, it might surprise you then to know that the demand for banknotes in Australia is still strong. The stock of banknotes on issue, relative to the size of the economy, is close to the highest it has been in 50 years. It is possible that low interest rates are part of the story here. All up, there are 14 $100 notes on issue for every Australian, 30 $50s, and 7 $20s. That makes for around $3000 worth of banknotes on issue for every Australian. I, for one, don't have anywhere near that amount.
At the RBA, we have recently undertaken some work to understand the whereabouts of all these banknotes. It is hard to know exactly, but we estimate that around a quarter are used to make legitimate day-to-day transactions within Australia.<a id="r1" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-10-01#fn1">[1]</a> It also appears that between half and three-quarters are held as a store of value in safes, under beds and at the back of cupboards, both here in Australia and elsewhere around the world. We estimate that a further 4 to 8 per cent are used in the shadow economy, either to hide transactions from the tax office or to undertake illegal transactions. Finally, it appears that between 5 and 10 per cent of banknotes are either simply lost, maybe at the beach, or destroyed, perhaps in a natural disaster. So, as best we can tell, that is where all the banknotes are.
One indicator of the decline in the use of banknotes for day-to-day transactions is the fact that the value of cash withdrawals through ATMs has fallen by a quarter over the past decade. Australians have clearly embraced the convenience of contactless payments. We are also increasingly embracing payments through Australia's fast 24/7 payment system, the New Payments Platform. If you have not already got your PayID to use the simple addressing feature of this new system, I encourage you to get one. If your bank is not offering this new fast payment service to you, I encourage you to ask them why. And if you are not happy with the answer, give some thought to switching banks.
Before finishing I would like to return to the question of why we have been issuing a new series of banknotes. The main answer is to keep ahead of the counterfeiters. We have long had one of the safest and most secure currencies in the world. The level of counterfeiting in Australia is low and declining, with around 15 counterfeits detected per million banknotes in circulation in recent times. This compares with rates above 50 for some other major currencies. But the counterfeiters don't stand still and we need to stay ahead. So we have added new high-tech security features to the new banknotes so that they remain safe, secure and reliable. For those of you who still use banknotes for your spending, it would be good to see a bit more use and spending out there.
Finally, I would like to thank you again for joining us this evening. We are looking forward to hearing directly from you about how things are going here in Victoria.
The article was originally posted on www.rba.gov.au.
To read the original article, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-10-01" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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RBA Governor Philip Lowe's Reserve Bank board dinner speech

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Following the RBA cutting the official interest rates to a record low 0.75 per cent, NAB and CBA are the only two of the big four to cut their home loan rates.
They've both heeded pleas from the Prime Minister and have failed to pass on the full 25 basis point cut.
Mozo have calculated the big banks failing to hold back some of the RBA's rate cuts has seen them pocket a $4.7 billion windfall since 2016.
Commonwealth Bank were the first to cut their rates, by just 13 basis points, just over half of the RBA's cut. They are set to make an annual windfall of $334 million by only partially passing on the cut, according to Mozo.
They announced their cut at 6pm, with cuts to take effect from October 22 which will help them pocket $59.9 million by delaying the effective date of their cuts.
CBA passed on the full 0.25 per cent cut to investors paying interest only.
Their lowest variable rate is now 3.22 per cent, the lowest of all the big banks, however Westpac and ANZ are yet to announce their cuts.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/CBA%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
RateCity.com.au chief executive Paul Marshall said CBA’s variable home loan customers will be disappointed by the banks’ decision not pass on a bigger cut.
“As a result, the average CBA home loan customer, on the lowest rate will miss out on $26 per month, or $314 per year.
“The banks are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to passing on rate cuts, because it is a balancing act to satisfy their borrowers, savers and shareholders as rates dip closer to zero.” 
“With the cash rate now so close to zero, the banks are attempting to balance the needs of their shareholders, investors and borrowers.
"However, it’s disappointing to see such small cuts being passed on by two of the big banks.” 
NAB followed Commonwealth Bank's announcement, cutting their owner-occupier principal and interest, and interest only mortgage holders, by 15 basis points.
Their partial cut will save them $120.9 million, and the delay of nine days until the new rates come in to affect will add a further $13.7 million to their pockets. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/2/NAB%20rate%20cut.jpg" alt="">
They too passed on a higher rate to investors paying interest only, cutting rates by 0.3 per cent.
The rate cuts are effective from 11 October and are for new and existing customers.
Homestar Finance, Athena Home Loans and Auswide Bank have passed on the full 25 basis point rate cut, while Reduce Home Loans have cut by 20 points.
UBank have also passed on the full cut, with their variable rates dropping 0.25 per cent by October 29.
Pepper Money have also cut, nearly in full. They've cut by 24 basis points.
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NAB and CBA fail to pass on full rate cut

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EXPERT OBSERVER
I welcome today's official cash rate cut, of 25 basis points, from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
A string of soft and underwhelming economic data results (GDP, unemployment and retail sales) ensured that the RBA had to reduce the official cash rate by 25 basis points this month. This pushes the cash rate down to 0.75% leaving little room for further cuts if required.
Given the muted economic effect of the last two rate cuts, the RBA will continue to push its message that more fiscal stimulus is required to boost economic growth – a call out to the government to reassess its expenditure.
We have a situation where the government’s tightening of fiscal policy is working against the RBA’s loosening of monetary policy. The federal government recently announced that the budget was ‘back in balance’ at a time when it needed to be spending more to help businesses create jobs, support household budgets and deliver large infrastructure projects.
Property markets have been one of the few beneficiaries of recent rate cuts with higher levels of buyer demand pushing prices higher, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. The rapid improvement in mortgage affordability has been a key driver of increased buyer enquiry; as interest rates have continued to decline and banks have reduced their serviceability rate, meaning buyers have the ability to borrow more.
The other major driver, pushing up property prices over recent months, has been the low number of properties on the market for sale. Home owners have been reluctant to list their properties due to the lack of choice to relocate. That said, LJ Hooker agents have reported higher levels of appraisals, over the past month, which will result in a higher number of listings over coming weeks as we move into summer.
MATHEW TILLER is LJ Hooker’s head of research
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rhinocombatsports-HJn6ZzTZBc

Government needs to do more than cut interest rates: Mathew Tiller

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The RBA have cut rates for the third time this year, bringing the official cash rate down to a historic low 0.75 per cent as consumption remains the main concern along with the unemployment rate and the slow wage growth. 
The cut comes hours after CoreLogic released their September Home Value index which showed <a href="/news/sydney-and-melbourne-compete-to-lead-the-recovery-as-perth-struggles-continue-corelogic-september-update">national dwelling values rose 0.9 per cent over September</a>. 
RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted after the meeting that "there are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
"In contrast, new dwelling activity has weakened and growth in housing credit remains low.
"Demand for credit by investors is subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight.
"Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality."
Within 15 minutes of the announcement, the likes of Athena Home Loans and Homestar finance have passed on the full 25 basis point cut.
Reduce Home Loans passed on 20 basis points.
The lowest rate owner occupier variable home loans, according to Canstar. To enlarge, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-bow-to-economic-pressures-and-cut-rates-for-third-time-in-2019">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/1/Canstar%20variable.jpg" alt="">
Dan White, the managing director of Ray White, said today’s rate cut by the RBA is a win for anyone looking to make a move in the property market, provided it's passed on by banks and lenders to its customers.
“The optimism on the ground across the country for both buyers and sellers is palpable right now and that’s highlighted in our auction clearance rates," White says.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the recent evidence of a strong rebound in Sydney and Melbourne housing values wasn’t enough to stave off a rate cut.
"A trend towards higher unemployment and a slowdown in jobs growth were likely the primary factors in the RBA’s decision to cut rates to a new low, as well as concerns around persistently weak household spending, subdued wages growth and low inflation," Lawless noted.
"Lower interest rates together with a subtle loosening in credit policies and improved housing sentiment has seen national housing values recover 1.7% of the 8.4% peak to trough decline in value, with a substantially larger bounce in Sydney and Melbourne. 
Lawless said the rebound in housing conditions should help to support an improvement in economic conditions as higher housing prices translate to a wealthier and more confident household sector who will hopefully be inclined to spend more.  
"Stronger housing conditions should also support the residential construction sector where approvals dropped through the housing downturn. 
"Both household spending and residential construction activity have weighed on economic growth, so a turnaround in these sectors would be a welcome turn of events. 
"Although the housing recovery is likely to add to Australia’s economic momentum, it comes amidst record levels of household debt and ongoing affordability challenges. 
Lawless suggested there is a risk that lower interest rates could fuel a further rise in household indebtedness as housing credit picks up and investors once again become more active, while higher housing prices are likely to curb participation from first home buyers despite the lower cost of debt. 
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey <a href="/expert-insights/finance/over-half-of-economists-surveyed-predict-cash-rate-cut-finder">45 experts and economists made their predictions</a>, with 55% (25/45) correctly predicting an easing of the rate.
They cited the recently released data on employment, retail sales and consumer sentiment as the main drivers of the cut.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said nearly three-quarters (72%, 26/36) of experts predicted that the cash rate will reach 0.50% before it starts to increase.
“The RBA uses each cut like a defibrillator to zap the economy back to life but as the rate gets closer to zero, they are running out of options," Cooke said.
“An injection of cash [quantitative easing] and the potential of a negative cash rate may be the only option to stimulate the economy."
Cooke said that lenders are likely to pass on most, but not all of the 25 basis point rate cut if recent history is any indication.
“From across the market, we’ve seen more than 8,700 loan products reduced since June 2019.
“Some lenders have passed on the full 50 point reduction (from the June and July cuts), but most have not.
“After today’s cut, you can expect to see more lenders offering variable rate loans that start with a ‘2’, so if yours doesn’t start with at least a ‘3’ it’s time to shop around,” Cooke said.
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RBA bow to economic pressures and cut rates for third time in 2019

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent.
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While the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, the risks are tilted to the downside. The US–China trade and technology disputes are affecting international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the increased uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken further steps to support the economy, while continuing to address risks in the financial system.
Interest rates are very low around the world and further monetary easing is widely expected, as central banks respond to the persistent downside risks to the global economy and subdued inflation. Long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are also at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at its lowest level of recent times.
The Australian economy expanded by 1.4 per cent over the year to the June quarter, which was a weaker-than-expected outcome. A gentle turning point, however, appears to have been reached with economic growth a little higher over the first half of this year than over the second half of 2018. The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, signs of stabilisation in some established housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, with the sustained period of only modest increases in household disposable income continuing to weigh on consumer spending.
Employment has continued to grow strongly and labour force participation is at a record high. The unemployment rate has, however, remained steady at around 5¼ per cent over recent months. Forward-looking indicators of labour demand indicate that employment growth is likely to slow from its recent fast rate. Wages growth remains subdued and there is little upward pressure at present, with increased labour demand being met by more supply. Caps on wages growth are also affecting public-sector pay outcomes across the country. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
Inflation pressures remain subdued and this is likely to be the case for some time yet. In both headline and underlying terms, inflation is expected to be a little under 2 per cent over 2020 and a little above 2 per cent over 2021.
There are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. In contrast, new dwelling activity has weakened and growth in housing credit remains low. Demand for credit by investors is subdued and credit conditions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, remain tight. Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The Board took the decision to lower interest rates further today to support employment and income growth and to provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target. The economy still has spare capacity and lower interest rates will help make inroads into that. The Board also took account of the forces leading to the trend to lower interest rates globally and the effects this trend is having on the Australian economy and inflation outcomes.
It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
Source: <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/5GWICp818qhqLnyQsYh3hc?domain=rba.gov.au" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/5GWICp818qhqLnyQsYh3hc?domain%3Drba.gov.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569990828732000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG6wQ_QN5r2HRnleIKP5Y46pZgjgA">http://www.rba.gov.au</a>
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It is all about full employment: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's October 2019 meeting statement

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Credit growth was anaemic in mid-2019, with housing weak in the wake of the sharp downturn and with business hitting a soft spot around the time of the Federal election.
More forward to August and credit growth remains weak despite the lift in new lending for housing in response to interest rate cuts. The reason for this apparent puzzle is that mortgagors repayments take a little time to adjust to the lower rates - as discussed below.
Total credit grew by 0.2% in the month of August, matching the average monthly outcome for the year to date. The mix was: housing +0.17%; business 0.2%; and personal -0.2%.
Annual credit growth has slipped below 3.0%, to 2.9% in August - the softest outcome since mid-2011.
Credit growth has progressively eased since expanding by 6.6% in 2015, with growth moderating to 5.6% in 2016, +4.8% in 2017 and +4.3% in 2018.
Key to this trend has been the housing sector. Housing credit growth has moved lower over recent years: from 7.4% in 2015; 6.3% in both 2016 and 2017; to 4.7% in 2018. The latest annual reading is 3.1%, the weakest in the history of the series (dating from the late 1970s) - the previous low was 4.4% in 2013.
In 2018, the housing sector downturn accelerated as lending conditions tightened further and as investors pulled-back. New lending contracted by 5.8% in the six months to June and then fell by a sharp 15% in the six months to December. The downturn broadened to owner-occupiers, with finance to this segment 2% lower in 2018H1 then down 14.3% over 2018H2.
More recently, new lending for housing has turned the corner - with a rebound in June and a jump in July. Sentiment has bounced following the May 18 Federal election, with the return of the Coalition government. The RBA lowered rates in June and again in July, with additional cuts likely, and APRA has eased mortgage serviceability assessments.
A lift in new lending will see housing credit growth strength over the coming months. However, over the past three months, housing credit has been choppy with repayments yet to be adjusted in recognition of the lower interest rates. That means that principal is being repaid more quickly - which acts to slow credit growth.
Momentum in housing credit, the 3 month annualised growth pace, is 2.5% currently, moderating from 6.7% in mid-2017. By segment, 3 month growth is 4.4% annualised for owner-occupiers and -0.9% for investors.
Turning to business credit, this grew by 3.4% over the past year, up from 3.0% for 2017 but still representing a moderation from gains of 6.4% in 2015 and 5.4% in 2016.
In 2019, business credit has hit a soft spot, with growth slowing to 2.1% annualised over the past 6 months. A key was the temporary impact of additional uncertainty around the time of the May Federal election. This mirrors the experience of the July 2016 Federal election.
At the same time, the economic backdrop has become more challenging, the global economy is slowing and domestically household spending is soft. In this environment business investment in the real economy has lost momentum across the non-mining sectors - which will tend to weigh on credit growth.
ANDREW HANLAN is a senior economist for Westpac
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Credit growth anemic in mid 2019: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In trend terms, the Internet Vacancy Index decreased by 0.1 per cent in August. The index is 6 per cent lower than a year ago, but it is 9.4 per cent above the level recorded five years ago.
As widely expected, the RBNZ has left the official cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.00 per cent at its meeting today
Governor Lowe delivered a speech titled “Economic Update.”
The internet job vacancies data is a leading indicator of the job market and therefore important for consumer-focussed stocks and companies. Speeches from the Reserve Bank Governor can provide guidance on interest rate settings. Changes in New Zealand monetary policy settings can affect rates in Australia as well as the sharemarket and currency.
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What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank Governor wouldn’t be drawn on the timing of the next rate cut. The rate cut may well be delivered on Tuesday. But if the Bank believes that the economy is indeed turning higher (it has reached a ‘gentle turning point’), the Bank may end up deciding that rate stability is the best source of action in the current environment.
The Governor adopted his usual ‘glass half-full’ approach rather than ‘glass half-empty’. In fact Philip Lowe believes we have a tendency to focus on what could go wrong rather than focus on the ‘tremendous opportunities’. The main concern is that consumers are not spending like they have in the past. And the other area of worry is the fact that investors are choosing to sit on the sidelines. There are plenty of savings but investors are not tapping those funds and investing.
No surprises from Reserve Bank New Zealand. The easing bias still exists. But clearly the ‘jumbo’ or ‘super-sized’ rate cut in August provided the Bank with more time before deciding the next move. Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect the next rate cut in November.
It’s steady as you go on job vacancies. There was little change in vacancies in the past month but the loss of momentum in Sydney and Melbourne gives the Reserve Bank additional scope to cut rates next week. Construction job vacancies continue to ease, reflecting slower home construction. But significant job vacancies continue to exist in Health, Education and personal/community services.
What do the figures show? 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%201.jpg" alt="">
Skilled Job Vacancies
The Department of Employment Internet Vacancy Index fell by 0.1 per cent in August. The index is 6 per cent lower than a year ago although it is up 9.4 per cent above the level recorded five years ago.
In August 2019: “Job advertisements decreased in four of the eight occupational groups, and remained steady in two. Job advertisements increased for Labourers as well as Community and Personal Service Workers (both up 0.4 per cent).” 
Over the year to August 2019: “Job advertisements fell in six of the eight occupational groups, with the strongest falls recorded for Machinery Operators and Drivers (down by 16 per cent), Sales Workers (down by 12 per cent) and Technicians and Trades Workers (down by 10.7 per cent). Increases were recorded for Community and Personal Service Workers (up by 5.2 per cent) and Professionals (up by 0.3 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, 12 of the 48 detailed occupational groups recorded increases in job advertisements. “The largest increases were recorded for a range of education and health related occupations such as Education Professionals (up by 1270 job advertisements), followed by Health Diagnostic and Therapy Professionals (570), Medical Practitioners and Nurses (500) and Carers and Aides (480).”
“The largest decrease was recorded for General-Inquiry Clerks, Call Centre Workers, and Receptionists (down by 1220 job advertisements), followed by Sales Assistants and Salespersons (1060), Corporate Managers (1010), Construction, Production and Distribution Managers (860) and Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians (840).”  
 Job vacancies increased in four states and two territories in August: NSW (down 0.7 per cent), Victoria (down 0.2 per cent); Queensland (up 0.2 per cent); South Australia (up 0.6 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.7 per cent); Tasmania (up 1.1 per cent); Northern Territory (up 0.6 per cent); and ACT (up 0.9 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, job vacancies rose in three states and one territory: NSW (down 12.1 per cent), Victoria (down 7.4 per cent); Queensland (down 2.5 per cent); South Australia (up 3.0 per cent); Western Australia (up 1.6 per cent); Tasmania (up 11.3 per cent); Northern Territory (down 4.3 per cent); and ACT (up 11.9 per cent).
Over the year to August 2019, in three month moving average terms, job advertisements decreased in 19 of 37 regions. “The strongest decreases in job advertisements were recorded in Sydney (down by 15.4 per cent), followed by Gosford &amp; Central Coast NSW (down 11.2 per cent), NSW North Coast (down 10.9 per cent), Melbourne (down 9.4 per cent) and Gold Coast (down 8.3 per cent).”
“The strongest increases were recorded in Port Augusta &amp; Eyre Peninsula, SA (up 32.5 per cent), Yorke Peninsula &amp; Clare Valley, SA (up 30.2 per cent), Fleurieu Peninsula &amp; Murray Mallee, SA (up 18.9 per cent), Hobart &amp; Southeast Tasmania (up 15.6 per cent) and South West WA (up 15.3 per cent).”
Reserve Bank Governor Speech
The speech can be found here: <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-09-24.html</a>
Interest rates: “Further monetary easing may well be required. While we are at a gentle turning point and expect growth to pick up, the strength and durability of this pick-up remains to be seen.”
Interest rates: “At our Board meeting next week, we will again take stock of the evidence. It is nevertheless likely that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieving more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, make further progress towards full employment, and achieve the inflation target over time.”
In the Question &amp; Answer segment, the Governor said that ‘nirvana’ would be inflation near 2.5 per cent, wage growth near 3.5 per cent, the job market at ‘full employment’ (near 4.5 per cent) and the economy displaying ‘decent’ productivity growth. 
Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%202.jpg" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%203.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%203.png" alt="">
RBNZ has held the official cash rate at a record low of 1.00 per cent at its meeting today, as widely anticipated by economists.  
The Monetary Policy Committee “agreed that new information since the August Monetary Policy Statement did not warrant a significant change to the monetary policy outlook.”
On jobs and inflation: “Keeping the OCR at low levels is needed to ensure inflation increases to the mid-point of the target range, and employment remains around its maximum sustainable level.”
On the outlook for monetary policy: “There remains scope for more fiscal and monetary stimulus, if necessary, to support the economy and maintain our inflation and employment objectives.”
Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect another 25 basis point rate cut in November.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Department of Employment releases a monthly Internet Vacancy Index. The index is based on a count of online job advertisements newly lodged on three main job boards (SEEK, CareerOne and Australian JobSearch) during the month. The index is the only publicly available source of detailed data for online vacancies, including around 350 occupations (at all skill levels), as well as for all states/territories and 37 regions.
Reserve Bank Governor speeches give a guide to policymaker thinking on interest rate settings. 
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Financial markets believe that rates will be cut next Tuesday. But whether its Tuesday or a month or two later, the Reserve Bank Governor believes that is reasonable to assume that further rate cuts lie ahead given that inflation is below the 2-3 per cent target band.
Lower interest rates will keep the Aussie dollar near US67-68 cents. And that lower Aussie dollar is good news for Australian businesses, especially exporters. Lower interest rates will also provide support for consumer-focussed stocks on the sharemarket.
The lack of momentum on job vacancies points to slower employment ahead and thus giving the Reserve Bank further reason to be cutting interest rates.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%204.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/25/job%20vacancy%205.jpg" alt="">
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec
Craig James is the chief economist at CommSec.
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