Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the hardest thing for real estate consumers doing research: who do you believe?
It’s hard to know who’s worth listening to and who is not. There are so many people pumping out press releases, writing commentary pieces and pontificating on television about our housing markets – and only a small fraction of this mass of white noise is worthy of your attention.
But there are markers which expose the pretenders – clues which allows you to separate the genuine experts.
Here’s how to identify the pontificators you should ignore:-
1. They discuss Australian real estate as a single market
The Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg exposed himself as a pretender in a recent column published in The Australian. His opening paragraph stated, as a fact: “Prices in our major capital cities have fallen for 12 consecutive months …” 
In doing so, one of our most senior federal politicians perpetuated one of the worst pieces of misinformation currently out there.
Frydenburg’s statement is outrageous misinformation. One source that is often quoted, CoreLogic, has the average result for the eight capital cities as a negative figure, but at the same time records that nine of the 14 major market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and six regional areas) have prices higher than a year ago.
Other research sources have different figures. SQM Research, for example, records the national average results as a 1.7 percent rise in annual terms, while the latest ABS figures record quarterly price rises in five of the eight capital cities.
So the claim that prices have been falling everywhere for 12 months is unsupported by any of the research evidence. The Federal Treasurer is simply parroting misleading media headlines.
But Frydenberg is not alone in his ignorance. Indeed, he has lots of company, when it comes to extrapolating the Sydney/Melbourne situation into a national downturn. Economists, in particular, are prone to misinforming Australians by discussing the nation as a single market and often getting their analysis wrong by generalising about prices.
We’d all be better off if they simply shut up.
Contrast that with these recent comments from someone with real credentials, veteran adviser and commentator Noel Whittaker:
“The problem is that most media commentary focuses on that elusive animal they call the ‘property market’. We might be told that Australian property is overheated, or that the property market has fallen by 5.6 per cent in the last year (in Sydney), or that Perth values have fallen by 12.6 per cent after peaking in 2014.
“But the fact is there is no such a thing as a single property market – not for Australia, not even for a single capital city – there are myriad property markets all doing their own thing. How can you compare a townhouse in Cairns with a mansion in Point Piper? All over Australia some markets may be rising, other markets may be falling, and some may be flat.”
Whittaker has encapsulated exactly how I see it.
Next time you hear/read a commentator discussing “the Australian property market” or claiming that “Australian house prices have fallen 5 percent”, turn the page or change channels because the talking head/writer is a charlatan pretending to be an expert.
2. They’re not real estate specialists
The problem with Josh Frydenberg is that, while he may prove to be a capable Treasurer, he’s not a real estate expert. Residential property is not his specialty.
This is the core problem with many of the prolific pontificators. Economists frequently make the mistake of thinking they can extrapolate their financial knowledge and economic theories to the real estate market. After 35 years as a real estate specialist, I’m still waiting to encounter an economist who understands the peculiar dynamics of real estate markets.
Last week I wrote about my Top 20 Worst Predictions About Australian Real Estate. Most of the people who made that list by getting their predictions horribly wrong were economists who strayed outside their area of speciality.
True real estate experts who are worthy of your attention are those who are genuine specialists for whom researching markets is a daily routine. They’re also people who don’t treat real estate data as a vehicle for free publicity, but as a means to inform the public by presenting well-considered and balanced analysis.
They include people like Louis Christopher of SQM Research and Simon Pressley of Propertyology. These are genuine experts who specialise in residential property. I don’t suggest they’re right about everything but they have earned the right to be heard by being real, independent, devoted experts.
3. They believe it’s all about interest rates
Most of the pretenders talk about the level of interest rates as the prime determinant of real estate markets and their cycles.
Ask your average economist why Sydney boomed and they’ll tell you it was “record low interest rates”.
This is a ridiculous for several reasons. If the level of interest rates was the catalyst, why no boom in Brisbane? Or Adelaide, Canberra and most of regional Australia. Why have prices fallen in Perth and Darwin during this period of record low rates?
It’s false logic to assume, as many economists do, that low rates = boom and rising rates = downturn. The two big nationwide property booms of the past 30 years (late Eighties and early Noughties) both occurred during periods of high and rising interest rates.
The end of the Sydney/Melbourne booms occurred with interest rates still at these very low levels.
The profile of the person you should ignore is an economist who rants about “the Australian property market” in the context of national factors like interest rates and APRA decisions – and generally tends to feel that everything that happens in real estate markets is an outrage because it doesn’t fit with their economic models of what prices should do and where values should be.
The genuine expert will discuss individual markets, include different sub-markets within each of our major cities, and will understand the fundamental importance of the underlying local economies, influenced by population trends, infrastructure spending, jobs creation and supply-demand factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

How to identify a misinformed property forecaster: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
While mainstream media obsesses over the inevitable downturn in the major markets in Sydney and Melbourne, somehow turning that into a national crisis, the rest of the nation is overlooked, especially regional Australia.
This is a shame for property investors because, right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia.
While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria, the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region (pictured above).
It’s significant that while the average price outcome for the capital cities is a negative figure, dragged down by Sydney’s decline, the result for regional Australia is positive. This is according to latest data from CoreLogic, which says that the average total return for regional Australia is 6.2%, compared to -0.6% for the combined capital cities.
While four of the eight capital cities have price levels lower than a year ago (according to CoreLogic - other sources disagree), five of the six major state regional markets have prices higher than 12 months ago.
The latest figures from SQM Research have annual price for the capital cities (the average for the eight capitals) slightly in the negative, but the national average including the regions is solidly in the positive.
Returns are better in the regions: yields in the capital cities average 3.5%, while the regions average 5% (CoreLogic figures).
And, of course, the prices are much more affordable: the median dwelling price for the cities is $643,000, compared to $368,000 in the regional areas.
Looking forward, the markets I see as having the best potential for upside for investors include locations like Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, the Hunter Region of NSW and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, with recovering Townsville another market likely to provide great value and potential for future growth.
I note that the latest McGrath Report puts forward the view that regional property markets are the “new black’’ in residential real estate.
The report says leading regional hubs like the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Geelong and Newcastle are undergoing significant price growth on the back of strong demand.
It suggests improved infrastructure has made commuting times faster between regional areas and capital cities - and when coupled with the NBN rollout making access to technology better, these regions have become even more appealing to buyers.
“Massive infrastructure investment across Australia is also boosting employment in regional centres,’’ the report says.
Most investors overlook the regions, believing that all the economic and property growth potential lies in the capital cities. It simply isn’t so.
To increase awareness of the potential in our regional areas, consider what Jack Archer, chief executive of the Regional Australia Institute, said in a recent newspaper column:
“Many believe one of the problems with plans to decentralise our population is too few jobs in rural and regional Australia. Not true. Permanent skilled and unskilled migrants are needed in many areas.
“And simple reforms to immigration policy with support from rural communities to settle new permanent migrants will help take pressure off major cities.”
He notes Federal Government moves to channel jobseekers into regional work and the possibility of a five-year regional visa to connect migrants with permanent regional jobs.
Data from the Federal Government’s Internet Vacancy Index shows why new permanent migration to regions is critical. In July there were 46,000 job vacancies in regional Australia. This is up 23% from February 2016. Capital city vacancies rose only 12%.
Archer says: “This need is not about temporary farm work. Today’s vacancies are a mix of high-skill and low-skill jobs — everything from labouring, to sales, trades and professions. In the Pilbara, there are about 1,600 vacancies including 553 trades (automotive), 332 professionals (engineering and health), 238 machinery operators, 155 labourers and 128 clerical staff.”
Australia has many strong, diverse regional economies supporting property markets which are affordable, have much better yields than the cities and have strong potential for capital growth.
That’s why I see buying in good regional cities as a win-win-win scenario.
John McGrath recently said regional is the new black, rivalling the likes of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne with their new improved lifestyle, population growth and growing economy's.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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It's time to focus on regional city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Prices are growing strongly in selected markets in different parts of Australia, not that you would know it if you confined your research to reading mainstream media.
And the areas where the growth is the greatest include the fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area and locations within an hour or so of the capital city.
Last week I wrote: “Right now, many of the best opportunities to buy well for future growth and good rental returns are in regional Australia. While media’s focus remains firmly on the capital cities, the reality is that the strongest price growth in the past year has been recorded in regional centres.
“The best-performing markets this year, based on our analysis of all the research, have been Geelong in Victoria (above), the towns of Cardinia Shire just outside Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and the Newcastle region.”
One of the key factors here is that the most active buyers, now, are those looking for affordability. So first-home buyers and investors on small budgets have been targeting the outer-ring suburbs of Melbourne and near-city regional centres.
The problem, once again, is that media likes to dumb things down for its readers and listeners, on the basis that we’re all a bit thick and can’t digest sophisticated information (although I suspect it’s the journalists themselves who need to have things dumbed down, because few of them have specialist knowledge of the subject).
So they generalise. And the generalised data tells us Melbourne prices are falling – apparently, because it depends on whose data you believe.
Consider this: in annual terms, CoreLogic records a 4.5 percent decline in Melbourne house prices, but SQM Research essentially says there’s no change and the latest ABS figures report a 2.6 percent rise.
With apartments, CoreLogic reports a slight 0.3 percent rise in Melbourne’s median price, ABS has a 1.4 percent increase and SQM claims a 7 percent rise.
So it’s not a fact to declare that Melbourne prices are falling, given that some research data contradicts the claim. What is true, I think, is that the average rate of growth is much lower than before.
But, and here’s the thing, the growth remains strong in some areas, particularly the outer-ring suburbs being targeted by budget buyers.
The research from various sources shows that first-home buyers, nationally, are more active than at any time in the past eight years. And Melbourne is one of the national leaders for the activity of first-time buyers.
I did some detailed research last week for an interview on ABC radio Melbourne and this confirmed just how prolific the growth is in some of the outer-ring areas.
On the northern fringes of the Melbourne metropolitan area, median prices are up strongly in annual terms in Epping, Lalor, Thomastown, South Morang, Broadmeadows, Jacana and elsewhere – led by Epping (up 22 percent) and Broadmeadows (up 26 percent), according to CoreLogic figures.
It’s notable that most of those suburbs have had further solid growth in the most recent quarter.
Similar trends are evident in the south-west, where Wyndham Vale, Werribee and Hoppers Crossing have all recorded 18-19 percent growth in their median prices in annual terms, including around 3 percent growth in the most recent quarter.
But the really big growth is happening in the regional centres just outside Melbourne. Geelong has been attracting attention as a leader not just in Victoria but nationally. Domain says the median house price for the City of Greater Geelong has grown 12 percent in the past year - but individual suburbs, notably the cheaper ones, have recorded much stronger figures.
North Geelong and Herne Hill are both up 24 percent in annual terms, while Corio and Norlane (which both have median house prices in the mid-$300,000s) have grown 30 percent in 12 months.
Norlane, Corio and North Geelong have each grown at least 7 percent in the most recent quarter for which we have figures.
Geelong is not an isolated example. A little beyond the Melbourne metro area to the south-east, Officer, Pakenham and Warragul have recorded annual rises between 20 and 27 percent. Those three towns, plus nearby Drouin, rose a further 4 percent or so in the most recent quarter.
Other regional areas where prices have been outperforming Melbourne averages include the Surf Coast, Ballarat, Mildura and Warrnambool – and I suspect that most of these markets, as well as Bendigo and Shepparton, are very early in their growth cycles.
The latest Domain data indicates that there are eight regional areas of New South Wales which have recorded annual growth above 10 percent, but I’ll save that discussion until a future column.
Remember this data next time you read in mainstream media that property prices are falling everywhere.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Victorian regions where property prices are growing strongly: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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There are growing reasons for hope and optimism for property investors who bought in resources-related towns at the height of the mining investment boom.
The question I get asked most often is “when will Gladstone recover?” - or similar questions about other resources-impacted regional centres around Australia.
For the past couple of years, the honest answer did not give much cheer to those holding properties worth considerably less than they paid and earning a lot less in rent than before (if a tenant could be found at all).
But now, increasingly, the news is more positive. Many of these places are showing definite signs of recovery and investors can look forward to the prospect of better prices and rentals.
I’m not suggesting anyone should rush out and buy in these places, most of which sit at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum – just that, for those who own property there (it’s amazing how many people do), there is light at the end of a very long tunnel.
In our latest edition of the Price Predictor Index, the number of Regional Queensland locations classified as Danger markets has dropped from a record high of 31 late in 2016 to 19 now. 
Markets showing signs of recovery include Dalby, Emerald, Moranbah, Rockhampton, Mackay and the Whitsundays. 
Mackay is showing quite strong signs of returning to growth, with sales activity up, vacancies down and some evidence of prices rising again. With the Central Queensland mining industry revitalising, Mackay is likely to show some reasonable growth in the next couple of years.
Dalby’s economic and property fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of the coal seam gas industry in the Surat Basin. Right now, its median house price ($255,000) is lower than it was five years ago but likely to recover in the near future.
Quarterly sales in Dalby over the past two years have been 32, 33, 41, 43, 50, 52, 65 and 75, a pattern that confirms the recovery in this market. Vacancies have dropped to around 2%, according to SQM Research.
Some of the worst-affected markets still have high vacancies and falling property values - and should be approached with caution. 
They include Mount Isa and Gladstone. Mount Isa still has eight suburbs classified as Danger markets and Gladstone still has six. Gladstone should improve, as the overall vacancy rate has dropped from a peak of 12% early in 2016 to around 3.5% now - still a little too high, but the trend is encouraging.
Regional areas of WA are nudging towards recovery, notably the resources-related centres in the north of the state.
Karratha and Port Hedland/South Hedland both have sales activity heading in the right direction again, a factor confirmed by our latest survey of sales volumes and also by new figures for the June Quarter from the Real Estate Institute of WA.
At the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland was well above $1 million. 
The latest figures show a median price around $395,000. This is 14% above the level of a year ago, though still well below the peak during the resources boom. 
The median price bottomed out around $350,000 earlier in the year, so there appear to be early signs of growth.
But we continue to urge caution - this kind of volatility is common in resources-related markets and they are not for the faint-hearted.
Similarly, there is a general pattern of growth in the Karratha market - and a similar history with prices.
The Karratha market was achieving only 45-55 sales per quarter in 2015 but in the past six quarters have each topped 80 sales. 
Typical house prices in Karratha are now below $300,000, compared with $700,000 to $800,000 at the peak of the resources investment boom.
Median prices in the Karratha area include $260,000 for Bulgarra (up 13% in the past 12 months but down 40% over 3 years), $345,000 for Nickol (up 28% in 12 months but 20% below the levels of three years ago) and $250,000 for Pegs Creek (up 5% in 12 months but still 42% below the levels of three years ago).
There is even a glimmer of recovery in sales activity in the remote resources town of Newman, with a median price ($145,000) at a fraction of the boom-time levels. 
Sales levels in Newman have improved, although from a very low base - in 2015 there were only 11 sales in the town, but there were 57 in 2016 and 75 in 2017.
The Kalgoorlie-Boulder market remains well below par. In 2012/2013 this market was recording around 250 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months fewer than 125 per quarter. We continue to classify Kalgoorlie as a Danger market.
In South Australia, former growth star Whyalla has been classified in The Price Predictor Index as a Danger market over the past two years, but there is hope for better things. 
Our latest quarterly survey shows signs of an upturn in sales, but at levels still well below the resources-fuelled peak of 2013/2014.
Sales in the past four quarters have been 10, 30, 31  and 37, which shows a pattern of improvement, but compares to quarterly sales of 96, 99, 89 and 84 in 2012-13.
Better news about the future of ailing steel maker Arrium, one of the region’s major employers, gives rise to hope for recovery in the local economy and property market. 
I await the next few quarterly surveys to see whether recent signs of upturn in sales activity are real.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
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When will Gladstone recover? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the weekend I spoke to crowds of people with their heads crammed full of media misinformation.
The number one point of discussion was the general perception that prices are falling across Australia, thanks to simplistic analysis and inaccurate headlines.
In reality, the latest monthly price report from CoreLogic (the source of most articles and headlines on prices) tells us that there are 14 major market jurisdictions across Australia (eight capital cities and six state regional areas) – and nine of the 14 have price levels higher than last year.
I see plenty of potential for buyers to find locations where prices are rising or are on the cusp of a growth phase.
How do you find them? Here are four markers that provides clues to future price growth …
1 The underlying local economy is rising
In 2011 when the government changed in New South Wales, the state ranked as one of the weakest economies in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report.
But with proactive governance and increased spending on infrastructure, NSW rose steadily up the rankings to eventually become the nation’s strongest economy. Out of that came the Sydney property boom.
There was a similar story in Tasmania. Traditionally Tasmania has ranked as our weakest economy but, following a major change of state government in 2014, the state rose up the national rankings, eventually reaching its current position of No.4, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
The marked improvement in the state economy gave rise to the growth in the Hobart property market, now the strongest among the capital cities for price growth.
The linkages between capital city property markets and the underlying state economy are undeniably strong.
So where does this marker point us for the next growth markets among the capital cities?
There are definite signs of improvement in the economies of Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.
This, along with other indicators, suggests better growth in the property markets in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.
2 Demand has risen but prices haven’t moved much - yet
Three capital cities stand out for this reason: Perth, Canberra and Adelaide.
There has been significant uplift in sales activity in Perth, as the underlying state economy improves.
Canberra sales activity is rising steadily also, and Adelaide currently has one of the most active markets among the capital cities.
When demand rises, prices tend to follow. One major forecaster has tipped Canberra to lead on price growth in the next 2-3 years. I think the national capital will definitely be a contender, but so will Perth and Adelaide.
3 Rents have risen strongly, but prices haven’t moved much - yet
Before Sydney prices started to rise, we saw a couple of years of strong growth in residential rentals. Before house prices started to move in Hobart, it was noticeable that vacancies were extremely low and that rents were rising. Prices followed.
So where are those conditions most evident right now in capital city Australia? The clear answer is Canberra, where vacancies are below 1% and residential rents have risen strongly in the past year or so, according to SQM Research data.
We’re also observing significant improvement in the Perth rental market, with vacancies declining and leasing activity rising.
4 Prices overall haven’t moved much, but the Top End has had strong growth
Sydney’s growth cycle started at the Top End and rippled out over time. In Melbourne, the up-cycle began in the millionaire suburbs and gravitated from there to the middle ring and more recently to the outer ring suburbs.
This is a common pattern in property cycles. And right now there are three capital cities where the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit price growth in the past year, but the market overall has not had big price growth.
Those three cities are Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
Where do all these markers point us?
Put all those indicators together and they point to strong price growth in the near future in three capital cities:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Canberra: the underlying economy ranks third in the nation, it has the highest average incomes and lowest unemployment, vacancies are low and the rental growth is the highest in the nation, sales activity (demand) is increasing and the Top End prices have risen strongly.</li>
<li class="li1">Adelaide: the state economy is improving and has big growth drivers in the system, vacancies are below average, demand is rising, yields are strong and Top End prices have risen at above-average rates.</li>
<li class="li1">Perth: the state economy is recovering, vacancies are falling, rental activity is rising, sales activity is steadily improving and Top End prices have recorded double-digit annual growth in many of the millionaire suburbs.</li>
</ul>
Brisbane will get on board if the signals of an improving state economy and the promise of big spending on infrastructure actually come to pass.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Four key markers for property investors of future price growth

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Sometimes economic upheaval can be the best thing that happens to a property market. Places afflicted by business closures and industry shutdowns often go into fightback mode and the end result is a net positive.
Newcastle since the closure of BHP in the late 1990s is a great example. So is Wollongong, a city where doom was forecast when Bluescope Steel was downsizing but which these days has a thriving local economy and growth property market.
And Geelong, which has had a number of blue-collar industries close but which has evolved into one of regional Australia’s strongest economies, with a property market which had led Victoria on price growth in the past two years.
In Adelaide, the former Mitsubishi car plant property has been re-purposed as a high-tech innovation precinct, a sector in which the SA capital leads the nation. More recently, the Holden manufacturing facility closed down but that too is being reinvented with modern creative industries.
Sometimes, this kind of supposed adversity can be the best thing that can happen in a local economy and its real estate market.
So now, to the surprise of many, we have resurgence in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, where the closure of coal-related industries was thought be the death knell for local towns. But, yet again, the opposite is true and now towns like Traralgon and Moe are shaping as the next to join Victoria’s regional property boom.
Yes, there’s a property boom sweeping through regional Victoria. Contrary to the theme of mainstream media, which has created the false impression of decline everywhere, there are thriving and rising markets across the nation – and regional Victoria is at the forefront of them.
Victoria’s Latrobe Valley is a market that many investors would avoid because many of its towns are down-market and the region has attracted mostly negative publicity suggesting economic decline.
But the reality is quite different from the media-driven perceptions. The Latrobe Valley is performing strongly and the real estate market is rising. It’s becoming the latest of the fightback markets of Australia.
Buyer demand has been slowly rippling eastward from Melbourne in the last few years. Sales activity in Cardinia Shire (Pakenham and Officer) and Baw Baw (Warragul and Drouin) has risen strongly, with big price growth. Now, it’s Latrobe City’s turn. 
The Latrobe Valley economy was impacted by the closure of coal-fired power stations but various levels of government have been directing resources to the region to boost the economy and maintain jobs. Numerous small projects to support small business and manufacturing are under way, schools and sporting complexes are being upgraded, a GovHub is being established and unemployment has fallen.
On a larger scale, the Defence Force is relocating its pilot training academy to nearby Sale, the local hospital is being redeveloped in a $217 million project, the Gippsland rail line is being duplicated in several sections and there are plans to establish an electronic car-making factory in the region.
This is drawing the focus from the traditional mining sector and steering Latrobe Valley in a new direction.
Latrobe City is recognised as one of Victoria’s four major regional centres along with Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. It is made up of four central towns – Churchill, Moe/Newborough, Morwell and Traralgon.
The City is the residential and commercial hub of a larger catchment of 262,000 people stretching across the Latrobe Valley and Gippsland region. Latrobe Valley is one of the most liveable regions in Victoria, known for its high-quality health, education and community services.
More commonly known for its energy production, the Latrobe region is also a heartland for agriculture, pastoral, papermaking and timber, supplemented by manufacturing and engineering.
Latrobe Valley is serviced by Victoria’s regional train network with V/Line train stations at Trafalgar, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon.
Regional Victoria is now the strongest market in Australian real estate. As the Melbourne boom subsides, regional markets are rising strongly.
Latrobe is a prime example: demand is rising in all four main towns. These markets are very affordable – Churchill, Moe and Morwell all have medians below $200,000. Traralgon, the biggest market with 620 annual sales, has a median house price of $290,000. 
Strong yields and low vacancies, both being hallmarks of a promising property market, are evident across Latrobe City. SQM Research data shows rents have generally risen in the last 12 months. The median rent in Morwell is $240, 8% higher than a year ago and 18% up on the rate of three years ago. Investors can expect rental returns around 6.8% in Churchill and Morwell, and 6.4% in Moe. 
The region can now offer a combination of low prices, low vacancies and high rental returns. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Regional property markets historically defy their economic downturns: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Generalised reporting of major markets is the curse of investors trying to find out what’s really happening. The growth figures published in mainstream media, with a single figure to describe an entire city, mislead more than they inform.
It’s one reason why few people I speak to can be convinced that it’s worth considering Adelaide, which I regard as Australia’s most under-rated market.
The generalised figures suggest little price growth - but, as is often the case, individual locations are doing better. 
Figures from realestate.com.au show that some Adelaide suburbs are selling homes quickly - and other data shows that many of these locations are recording above-average price growth.
According to realestate.com.au data for the six months to April 30, Gilberton has Adelaide’s fastest-selling houses. Houses in the north-eastern fringe suburb have a median time on market of 13 days – up there with the best in the nation.
Gilberton’s median house price has grown 19 percent in the past year to reach $1,090,000.
Houses in Hyde Park (median price $1,370,000, up 5 percent in 12 months) and Sefton Park (640,000, up 21 percent) have a median time on market of 17 days.
Clarence Gardens ($630,000, up 7 percent) and Melrose Park ($552,000, up 8 percent) houses sell in 18 days.
Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said Adelaide’s market is performing strongly and sale times will likely go down as stock levels typically drop over winter.
“On average we typically see homes selling in around 40 days so you are looking at a pretty speedy market,” Conisbee says.
This confirms our view that the Adelaide market is stronger than the generalised price data indicates.
And I think it will get stronger, as the state economy delivers on the considerable promise it is increasingly showing. 
The unemployment rate for South Australia has risen slightly in the latest official data, but it remains healthy at 5.9 percent, compared to 6.5 percent in Queensland and Western Australia, and 6 percent in Tasmania. Only NSW (5 percent) and Victoria (5.3 percent) have better jobless rates than SA. 
The state economy is showing great resilience, despite some negatives such as the Holden factory closure, and this is under-pinning real estate markets.
Adelaide is the innovation capital of Australia and increasingly major businesses are relocating to the SA capital for that reason. SA leads on the nation on alternative energy and projects under way or in planning total many billions of dollars. 
And the big enterprises to create vessels for the Navy are also in the pipeline.
Canberra is another capital city that flies under the radar screens of most investors, despite everything it offers.
The ACT has the nation’s fastest-growing economy, according to Deloitte Access Economics’ business outlook, which says the ACT went to the “top of the leaderboard” in 2017, with gross state product rising 4.6 percent.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson says low interest rates have given the ACT’s “massive mortgage belt” some breathing space. “There’s two big levers at play in Canberra: the size of the public service and interest rates,” he says.
After weathering government cutbacks in recent years, the public sector is now “in the sweet spot”.
The State of the States report from CommSec has the ACT in third place overall in a study of the states and territories on eight economic indicators. 
The ACT trailed NSW and Victoria overall but ranks first on housing finance (up 28% on the long-term average), second on unemployment and second for annual population growth, up 1.8%. The ACT’s home building starts were up 16.5% on decade averages, placing it third. It’s a strong report card and is a key factor in the steady rise in prices and rents. 
The latest figures from SQM Research confirm the very low vacancy rates in Canberra.  The firm’s mid-May report recorded a vacancy rate of 0.8%, compared with Sydney (2.3%), Brisbane (3%) and Perth (4.1%). 
Only Hobart (0.7%) has a lower vacancy rate, according to these figures.
Not surprisingly, rents are rising. In annual terms, the weekly asking rent index is up 7.6% for houses and 4.1% for units.
The Domain Group has also published figures showing strong annual rises in Canberra rents, with houses overall up 6% and units up about 5%. 
Domain chief data scientist Dr Nicola Powell says: “This data echoes what we have been seeing in the Canberra market and that is rents are rising across the board.
“House rents have been growing since mid-2015 and unit rents have been growing since the end of 2015.”
Some forecasters have tipped Canberra to lead the capital cities on price growth in the next three years. I’m not sure it will be No.1 but I expect it to be a contender.
For my third under-rated market, I could nominate pretty much any of our major regional cities.
Organisations whose goal is promoting themselves rather than informing the public like to publish average growth rates to compare capital cities with the regions. The regions will always lose in this comparison because the regions include struggling mining towns and other areas suffering from negative events such as drought.
It would be more valid to compare the capital cities with the largest regional centres like Newcastle, the Gold Coast and Geelong - and this comparison would produce a very different result.
Many suburbs in both Newcastle and Geelong have recorded median price growth above 20 percent in the past 12 months. Several other regional markets, including those close to Melbourne and to Sydney, have had serious growth in the past couple of years.
But under the general heading of under-rated I’d go for Ballarat. Whenever I speak about cities like this, I get that kneejerk reaction about regional centres never delivering growth.
But consider what a city like Ballarat offers. Virtually every suburb has a median house price below $450,000, including several with medians in the $200,000s. It’s not too hard to find rental yields above 5 percent. And there’s been serious price growth recently.
The suburbs of Soldiers Hill, Buninyong and Black Hill are up more than 20 percent I the past 12 months. Others have grown 10-12 percent.
The city is underpinned by a strong, diverse local economy, a growing population and good transport links to Melbourne. 
It’s feasible to buy a good home there at a fraction of Melbourne’s prices and commute to work somewhere in the state capital (keeping in mind also that some of Melbourne’s biggest jobs nodes are on the northern fringe of the metro area, closest to cities like Ballarat and other attractive Hill Change towns in Victoria).
But there are plenty of jobs within Ballarat itself, which is attracting growing numbers of buyers from Melbourne, seeking more attractive prices and a different lifestyle.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's three most underrated growth markets

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Real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions, most of them contradicted by the research evidence.
Perhaps the oldest and most enduring of property’s cliches is that you get the best capital growth in the prime inner-city suburbs.
That old furphy is usually stated as a self-evident truth without supporting evidence, or with a few cherry-picked examples that appear to back the theory.
The truth is, superior long-term growth can be found in all manner of places. The key elements driving growth seldom relate to proximity to an icon, like the Sydney CBD.
You’re just as likely to find outstanding growth rates in middle-ring suburbs, the affordable outer-ring areas and in selected regional centres, while some iconic locations have poor growth rates (Surfers Paradise being a standout example).
Cheaper areas often shine because they attract the great mass of buyer demand, thanks to their affordability.
Following four years of strong price growth in Sydney, most suburbs have attractive long-term growth rates (average annual growth in median prices over 10 years), despite Sydney’s below-par performance between 2003 and 2013.
Many now have long-term capital growth averages above 10 percent a year. And the top performers are widely spread across the Sydney metropolitan area.
Inner-city Burwood (median price $2 million) has the same long-term growth rate (10.4 percent per year) as Busby ($640,000), which is out west near Liverpool.
Balmain ($2.17 million) and Canley Vale ($820,000) both have growth rates around 10 percent per year.
Emerton, out west near Blacktown with a median price of $540,000, has a slightly better capital growth rate (10.5 percent) than Eastwood, with a median of $1.87 million (10.2 percent).
Seriously upmarket Mosman (median $3.87 million), has a modest growth average of 6.2 percent, whereas Lethbridge Park (median $520,000) has averaged 10.2 percent, despite its downmarket image and location (part of the City of Blacktown).
St Marys ($660,000), near Penrith, and nearby Tregear ($505,000), have growth rates above 10 percent per year, on a par with Rose Bay ($4.1 million) and considerably better than Gordon ($2.5 million), where growth has averaged 7.6 percent per year.
Islington ($670,000), a suburb of Newcastle, is equal to Hurstville ($1.6 million) in Sydney’s south.
Having some kind of stigma is no barrier to good capital growth.
So it doesn’t surprise me to see new research which refutes one of the most cherished beliefs in real estate – that areas with high crime rates have inferior capital growth.
The report shows that affordable areas attract strong demand, generating above-average price growth, regardless of the local crime statistics. This is particularly so if a cheaper area is undergoing gentrification.
According to RiskWise Property Research, housing in high-crime areas across Australia is outperforming the general property market. This correlates with Hotspotting analysis which shows that low-priced locations, including those stigmatised as “problem” areas, often have strong capital growth.
“The research house discovered high-crime areas, despite expectations, are trumping their safer neighbouring suburbs when comparing their five-year growth to the city’s median,” says RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg.
He says investors commonly attribute too much weight to crime figures and should more objectively analyse the financial risks when making property investment decisions. 
“Our nationwide research actually found gentrifying suburbs with high crime typically deliver strong price growth and outperform the local benchmark. 
“We found affordable high-crime areas with significant gentrification are likely to produce strong price growth, particularly when dwelling prices in the inner and middle rings are unaffordable.” 
In Melbourne, some suburbs significantly outperformed the market. Frankston North, a notable downmarket suburb in the far south-east, delivered growth of 102% over the past five years. 
“Our research shows that suburbs like Frankston North are not outliers and similar results can be found in each of the major cities,” Peleg says. 
“Busby in the western suburbs of Sydney is another example. This suburb consistently endured some of the highest gun violence rates across the city, yet it delivered growth above the median for Greater Sydney.” 
In Sydney, eight of the Top 10 high-crime areas outperformed the market due to very strong demand from owner-occupiers and investors for affordable properties. 
“Together, these high-crime Sydney suburbs delivered outstanding five-year growth of 87% for houses and 65% for units, outperforming the Sydney price growth benchmark,” he says. 
“Brisbane and Gold Coast high-crime areas also typically outperformed the market.” 
While price growth in Adelaide and Perth was below the local benchmark, high-crime areas undergoing significant gentrification delivered strong growth. For example, Prospect in Adelaide outperformed the local housing market with 26% median price increase over the past five years. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Sydney's cheaper suburbs are outperforming the upmarket areas for price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Research on price growth over time often contradics long-held beliefs about where you get the best growth.
Information put together recently by PIPA found that Hobart had achieved the highest percentage growth in house prices among the capital cities over the past 15 years, while Sydney had recorded the lowest growth.
There are similarly surprising outcomes from publication by CoreLogic of the growth in various jurisdictions across Australia in the four most recent five-year periods.
One of the things this shows is that, overall, the past five years have been quite tame for growth in house prices.
Media has often referred in the past few years to an unprecedented national property boom, but I have maintained that we have not had a national boom and the growth recorded in the places with strong markets, such as Sydney and Melbourne, has been far from unprecedented.
These CoreLogic figures would tend to confirm that. They examine the five-year periods up to January in each of 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018.
In terms of national average price growth, the five-year period to January 2003 was the most prolific, by a considerable margin. Values (national average) grew 62 percent in the five years to 2003, while in the five years to January 2018 the growth was just 38 percent. The five-year period up to 2008 (national rise of 44 percent) was also higher than the most recent period.
There were all kinds of regional differences within each of those five-year periods, reinforcing once again that we do not have a single national market, but many different local markets.
In the five years up to 2003, which was the last time we had a genuine national property boom, the combined capitals grew 64 percent and the combined rest of state (the regional areas) rose 54 percent. But the leading jurisdiction in the nation for that period was Regional NSW, which rose 84 percent, followed by Canberra (up 79 percent) and Regional Victoria (up 66 percent).
Five of the capital cities grew more than 55 percent in that period, while Perth rose 46 percent and Hobart was up 38 percent. Everywhere in Australia, both city and regional, showed some kind of meaningful growth.
In the five years to 2008, regional areas were dominant, with the combined regional areas up 53 percent while the capital cities increased only 42 percent.
This was a period when Western Australia was the leading market in the nation, with Regional WA up 121 percent in five years - mostly resources centres like Port Hedland and Karratha, as well as lifestyle towns like Mandurah, recording extraordinary growth. The Perth market rose 102 percent in that period.
That was also the time frame in which Tasmania caught the boom wave from the mainland (rather similar to Tasmania right now), with Hobart (up 75 percent) the No.2 city for growth after Perth, while Regional Tasmania grew 89 percent. 
The regional areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory also had substantial price rises in that five-year period.
Meanwhile, in those five years to 2008, Sydney rose only 12 percent. It was mediocre also during the next five-year period, up to 2013, growing just 9 percent over five years. This is why Sydney ranked eighth and last among the capital cities in the 15-year capital growth figures published by PIPA.
Overall, that five-year period up to 2013 was the weakest nationally in recent times. The only place that showed much uplift during that time was the Northern Territory, with Darwin up 32 percent and Regional NT up 38 percent.
At that time, prices were going backwards in Brisbane, Perth, Hobart and a number of regional areas.
Then, in the most recent five-year stanza, Sydney rose 64 percent and Melbourne 56 percent. To put into perspective, remember that leading markets in the five years to 2008 grew more than 100 percent and the national leaders in the five years to 2003 increased 79-84 percent.
The only other places to show much uplift in the past five years were Regional NSW (up 38 percent) and Hobart, which started to show the beginnings of its current boom 12-18 months ago.
In this latest five years, prices went backwards in Perth and Regional WA, as well as in Darwin (whicb dropped 20 percent ) and Regional NT.
Overall, the figures confirm that we have many different markets in Australia and that, at any given point in time, they are not all moving in the same direction or at the same speed.
And that, contrary to popular belief, the major cities do not always out-perform the smaller cities or the regional areas. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Five year periods actually show tame house price growth: Terry Ryder

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I’ve been tipping recovery in the Perth market in the past six months and now we are seeing the first signs of a return to price growth in some sectors. 
Several research sources still have the Perth market overall in slightly negative territory in terms of price movements, but my latest analysis for the Price Predictor Index shows that there is price growth in the upper end of the Perth market. 
When city markets are at the early phase of a growth cycle, the upmarket suburbs are often the first to show growth (and it ripples out later to the middle market and then to the cheaper areas).
That’s what happened in recent years in firstly Sydney and later in Melbourne.
Now the latest price data is showing the beginnings of something meaningful in Perth, which has numerous suburbs with median house prices above $1 million.
That top end market has seen growth in their median prices in the past three months and in annual terms also. 
This trend is widespread across the Perth prestige market. Suburbs with rising prices include Nedlands, Claremont, Applecross, Shelley, Cottesloe, Dalkeith, Mosman Park, Trigg and Floreat. 
All have median house prices above $1 million, while Dalkeith and Cottesloe are both above $2 million.
The latest price growth data from CoreLogic finds double-digit annual growth in median prices in most of those suburbs. 
In fact, the median price growth data has Cottesloe, Daglish, Dalkeith and Shelley all growing more than 20 percent in the past year, with a big chunk of that growth occurring in the most recent quarter.
This is a little misleading because it doesn’t mean property values are growing to that degree. It’s simply a product of the vagaries of median prices, which can be particularly volatile in those top-end markets where a few big-ticket sales than skew the data.
But valuers and buyers agents I spoke to during a visit to Perth last week confirmed that values are up 10 percent (ish) in many of the million-dollar suburbs.
Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the state’s economy, especially in the mining sector, and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.
According to the WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry biannual review, the WA economy is rebounding, will grow this year and should start delivering a better jobs market and higher wages.
The report is supported by separate research by the ANZ that suggests the WA economy is back among the fastest-growing in the country. CCI chief economist Rick Newnham says the slowdown in the state - that previously hit the jobs market, property prices and confidence - has come to an end. 
The drop in business investment from the peak of the resources boom has also run its course. One symptom is that spending on gold exploration in WA climbed to its highest level on record in 2017. 
We’re now seeing evidence of those stronger economic prospects playing out in improvements in the Perth property market, notably in the top end suburbs.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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