The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Terry Ryder

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One of many things that will be different in real estate in 2018 is that we’ll be talking a more about Adelaide.
I see the South Australian capital as the most under-rated of the capital city markets, largely because of the popular perception that South Australia lacks economic muscle and population oomph.
But something is building in SA that will change its image and cause investors to pay greater attention.
There are many clues to bigger and better things brewing. The first of them was the elevation of SA in the latest edition of CommSec’s State of the States report, in which it was promoted from No.6 to No.4 in the economic rankings.
South Australia scored well on business investment, employment and dwelling construction.
The latest Business SA-Statewide Super survey of business expectations showed confidence and business conditions are on the rise (but with lingering concerns about the future direction of the state economy).
The latest ABS jobless data showed the SA unemployment rate steady at 5.8 percent in seasonally-adjusted terms (a little above the national average of 5.4 percent) but with the trend data showing the SA jobless rate dropping 0.2 to 5.6 percent - which was the lowest in five years.
So the current indicators look a little more positive. But the big game-changing events are yet to come.
We’ve seen the beginnings of the impact from the biggest of them, the $89 billion program of building vessels for the Navy, which will be focused primarily on Adelaide.
The first step is a $535 million infrastructure build at Adelaide’s naval shipyard and reports indicate this means 600 jobs, for which hiring is under way. Lendlease has been selected as the managing contractor for the Osborne South Shipyard construction.
This infrastructure is expected to be ready for the $35 billion project to build nine frigates, starting in 2020. But the total project is considerably bigger than that.
A PwC study has forecast the overall $89 billion naval shipbuilding program, headlined by the $50 billion project to build 12 new submarines, will create 8,000 jobs in South Australia over 40 years and deliver a $134 billion boost to Gross State Product.
Another big impact will come from revival in the resources sector. SA is a significant resources state, though much less in the headlines than Western Australian and Queensland.
BHP has indicated it plans to spend over $3 billion expanding its Olympic Dam mine. It recently announced an immediate $US800 million injection to “stabilise” Olympic Dam over the next few years, to be followed in 2020 by a $US2.1 billion “brownfields expansion” that would double the mine’s output.
There’s plenty more action in the SA mining sector, including the decision by OZ Minerals to invest $900 million in the Carrapateena project and CU River announcing an $800 million expansion of its Cairn Hill mine, creating 1,300 jobs.
Energy production is potentially a massive industry in SA, with a dozen projects worth around $5 billion targeted on the Port Augusta area, many of them solar and wind developments.
Last week the (allegedly) world’s largest lithium-ion battery was officially turned on at Jamestown by Premier Jay Weatherill, who said: “South Australia is now leading the world in dispatchable renewable energy, delivered to homes and businesses 24/7.”
Not so sure that SA is leading the world, but it certainly presents as a national leader is this field.
By coming in ahead of schedule, Tesla tech billionaire Elon Musk fulfilled his promise to build the 100-megawatt facility in 100 days or provide it free. The battery is paired to the neighbouring Hornsdale Wind Farm, owned by French company Neoen.
Infrastructure spending has a big influence on the health of real estate markets - and the infrastructure spend in Adelaide is mounting, with a significant ongoing investment in improving road and rail links across the metropolitan area.
Recent announcements include funding totalling $659 million for facilities at the RAAF Base Edinburgh in Adelaide’s north to support the anti-submarine and surveillance plane, the P-8A Poseidon. These facilities are targeted for completion by early 2019.
A recent report listed extensive private sector investment in South Australia, which included a number of firms making Adelaide their headquarters.
Strike Energy has committed to relocate its headquarters from Sydney to Adelaide; French company Dassault Systemes has decided to establish its Australian head office in Adelaide; and Indian renewable energy company Enzen Global Solutions is opening its Australian head office in Adelaide.”
In addition, cyber security firm VeroGuard Systems says it will begin manufacturing in Adelaide in 2018, producing cards and software to enable hyper-secure online transactions. The company’s $57.5 million investment is expected to create 596 jobs in the first three years.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

We'll be talking more about Adelaide in 2018

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A nation like Australia should be able to have a sensible, rational, balanced debate on issues like housing affordability – but it seems we cannot because we have the media from hell. 
Mainstream media has been having a feeding frenzy recently over two documents about negative gearing and its impact on affordability – one a leaked report from Federal Treasury and the other a half-finished research paper by Melbourne University economists. 
Both apparently claim that scrapping negative gearing tax benefits would have only a minor impact on home values but at the same time would bring about a major improvement in housing affordability. 
There’s been lots of commentary on the significance of these documents, especially with regard to Federal Government policy, but I have not seen any media reports from writers who have challenged the documents. 
Their findings, apparently, are deemed to be factual and beyond scrutiny. 
The worst contribution to this endless and seemingly fruitless debate about affordability, its causes and its solutions, has come from the Melbourne University research paper. 
My first question about this is: why would the authors publish research that is not yet finished? It is, according to the authors, “preliminary and incomplete”. One of them says that when the research modelling is complete, the results may change, particularly the forecast size of the lift in home ownership. 
Given the sad record of this discussion being blighted by claims, counter-claims, pet theories and silver bullet solutions, why would academics who want to be taken seriously publish something that just adds to the quagmire of confusion because it’s still a work in progress. 
This paper makes some pretty big claims. Three-quarters of households would be better off, home ownership would surge and rents would rise but renters would be somehow better off. 
These are big statements. But they’re not justified or substantiated in any of the reports I’ve read. 
To try to understand why the authors think the suggested policy changes would have the big impacts they claim, I studied reports from six sources, including The Australian, the Financial Review, The Age and The Guardian. 
I’m still waiting for an explanation of the claimed outcomes. And I’m still waiting to come across a journalist who challenged the authors of the report on a number of matters, including their credentials, their motivations, their methodology and their assumptions. 
I’d love to see the mathematics that’s led them to their preliminary and incomplete conclusions. 
Here’s a core question they should be asked: how can you claim that the suggested policy would cause a 30% reduction in rental property supply, and therefore an increase in rents, but also claim that renters everywhere would be better off? 
From my study of media reports, it seems the authors are assuming that a 30% reduction in supply would cause a rental rise of only 2.4 percent – and that the Federal Government would financially compensate tenants for the higher rents that would result. 
Those are massive assumptions. No one in Australian media has challenged them. 
If they’re wrong and there’s no government compensation for higher rents, which would cost billions of dollars according to the report, tenants will be disadvantaged by having higher weekly occupancy costs, which would make it harder to save a deposit to get into home ownership. 
That whole argument falls apart if a future government offers no compensation. 
And keep in mind that other research tells us that last year, without any taxation policy changes to limit the supply of rental properties, house rents rose 7 percent in Canberra, 9 percent in Hobart and 5 percent in Melbourne. 
But, according to the Melbourne University boffins, eliminating one-third of the supply of rental properties would cause rents to change barely at all. 
It’s worth remembering that significantly higher rents resulted when a Labor Government scrapped negative gearing in the 1980s and then had to re-instate it a short time later because of the unforeseen adverse impacts. 
The university paper claims that property values would fall only 1.2 percent but somehow this insignificant decline in house prices would generate a massive rise in home ownership – from 66.7 percent to 72.2 percent. 
How have they come up with these very precise but unexplained estimates? 
They claim 30 percent of rental properties would be freed up and bought by Australians who would otherwise have rented. So we’re asked to accept that a 1.2% drop in prices would turn those who can’t afford to buy into people who now can do so. 
That’s another massive assumption that no one has challenged. 
Think about it. The Asking Price Index for Sydney houses sits at $1,356,500, according to SQM Research. A 1.2 percent reduction in prices would bring that down to $1,340,222. Apparently $1.356 million is unaffordable but $1.34 million is affordable to heaps of people. 
But those are Sydney prices. Let’s look at a city that’s a little less extreme, like Brisbane. The Asking Price Index for the Queensland capital sits around $614,000 and a 1.2 percent reduction would bring it down to about $607,000. 
The report authors want us to believe that this small change will cause a “surge” in home ownership rates in Brisbane. 
In a parallel universe, maybe, but not in the real world. 
There are other aspects of this paper that ought to be challenged – and would be if journalism played a part in the reporting of the housing industry. 
The claim that only the “rich” benefit from negative gearing is outrageous - and patently false, according to ATO data. 
There’s no explanation in any report I’ve read for the claim that 76 percent of households would be better off under the suggested policy change. We’re told only that the authors used “an economic model”. 
Surely Australia as a nation can do better than this. But while we’re saddled with such mediocre media and clueless politicians, we’re doomed to having this festering issue drone on for years to come. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Melbourne University negative gearing study needs to be challenged over its methodology and assumptions: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Investors will be piling into the Adelaide market – just as soon as they read somewhere that there’s a boom in the South Australia capital.
But not before. The only constant in the residential property market is that the herd mentality drives the actions of buyers and sellers. 
Adelaide right now is a strong value-for-money proposition, with one of the steadiest and most consistent markets in capital city Australia, underpinned by an economy that the experts have recognised as one of the nation’s best.
But investors generally refuse to consider it. Adelaide flies under the radar screen, with many people clinging to the outdated notion that Adelaide and SA is a low-growth sort of place.
But the experts know better. Here’s a snapshot of what some have said recently:
“South Australia’s economy was the standout of all states and territories in the last three months of 2018, with strong house prices and positive employment momentum boding well for the future.” – ANZ Stateometer report
"Residential property capital values in South Australia had their fastest rise for six years in the last financial year." - SA Property Landscape report from Land Services SA
"Business confidence in SA is now at levels not seen in more than 10 years." - Business SA-William Buck Survey of Business Expectations
"South Australia remains home to the most confident property sector in the country,  buoyed by tax cuts and positive economic announcements. It is the fourth consecutive quarter that confidence in the state's property industry has topped the country." - ANZ / Property Council Survey's Statewide Index
"All the economic indicators are suggesting that Adelaide is going to experience a very buoyant 2019." - Broadway Property director Ben Heritage
"Price Growth Reaches 6 Year High in Sleeper State" - Smart Property Investment magazine
"Adelaide Median House Value Soars To Record High, Defying Downturn In Other Capital Cities." - The Advertiser
"Adelaide Housing Market Forecast To See Steady Growth." - Moody Analytics
"The two key measures of the SA economy - how much production in the state and  how much spending in the state - are both accelerating." - Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics
"Elon Musk’s Tesla is aiming to more than double its battery rollouts during 2019, saying its huge Hornsdale battery in SA has become an important calling card that's attracting bigger projects." - The Australian
"Technicolor's Move To Adelaide Will Generate 400 Jobs and Boost CBD Living and Lifestyle." - The Advertiser
Against that background of economic and property performance, Adelaide is one of Australia’s most consistent markets, a status it has maintained over the past 12 months. It remains the busiest market in capital city Australia and one that is forecast by several analysts to be a national leader on price growth in 2019 and beyond.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 20 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide continues to record high numbers of suburbs with growing sales demand, well above the levels seen in most of the capital cities.
This has produced multiple years of steady price growth, without generating a price boom – yet.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only a few percent in Adelaide house prices overall, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that many of the millionaire suburbs have recorded big growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a market upcycle.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges. This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are seven municipalities which have five or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
The leading precinct, with 12 growth suburbs (which makes it a nation-leading market), is Port Adelaide Enfield - which is likely to attract growing interest as the massive project to build Navy vessels unfolds.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide, has been a market leader for the past 12-18 months and continues to be.
A new challenger in Adelaide is the West Torrens LGA, which is situated between the CBD and the beaches – and offers wonderful value for money, relative to its location. Most suburbs have median house prices in the $500000s.
Another contender is the Tea Tree Gully LGA, which offers a good location relative to major jobs nodes and the Adelaide CBD, good local infrastructure and a high level of housing affordability. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide flies under the radar as one of our strongest capital city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our latest survey have recorded growth in the past year.
Hotspotting has surveyed 303 significant markets across the state outside of Sydney (we exclude small markets with fewer than 30 sales in a year, as small sales samples provided distorted medians and unreliable figures on growth or decline). 
Of these, 171 (56%) have recorded median price growth above 5% and a further 88 (29%) have had growth between 1% and 5%.
The 171 locations with growth above 5% included 78 places which had double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
It provides quite a stark contrast to the trends in Sydney.
Our survey reveals only 11 Regional NSW locations where prices have dropped by more than 5% and another 33 where prices have fallen marginally (between 1% and 5%).
The regional growth has been led by 14 markets with growth of 20% or more: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Ballina units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Berry houses (up 36%), </li>
<li class="li1">Broken Hill houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casino units (up 31%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casuarina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Crestwood houses (up 25%),</li>
<li class="li1">Moruya houses (up 23%), </li>
<li class="li1">Sawtell units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Catalina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Shelly Beach houses (up 29%), </li>
<li class="li1">Wangi Wangi houses (up 40%), </li>
<li class="li1">Uranga houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Tura Beach units (up 26%), and </li>
<li class="li1">Taree units (up 20%).</li>
</ul>
The Newcastle region (above) continues to be strong on price growth. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens all have multiple suburbs with solid to strong median price growth in the past year.
Lake Macquarie markets with rising prices include Belmont, Belmont North, Cardiff, Cardiff South, Caves Beach, Edgeworth, Macquarie Hills, Speers Point, Swansea, Wangi Wangi and Warners Bay.
Other precincts with significant numbers of locations with solid-to-strong price growth include the Central Coast, the Tweed region, Byron Bay and Ballina.
In terms of locations with rising demand, as measured by quarterly sales activity, this Autumn 2019 survey has found 61 Regional NSW locations with markets trending upwards, up from 53 in the Summer 2019 survey but down on the 70 rising markets identified in the Spring 2018 analysis.
There are new growth leaders revealed in this survey: the Lake Macquarie LGA beside Newcastle has six rising markets while the Wagga Wagga LGA has five.
As we have recorded in previous reports, the Hunter Region is a growth market – the LGAs of Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter (Scone) all present markets where buyer demand is trending higher.
Other centres where markets are busy include the municipalities of Queanbeyan-Palerang, Albury, Ballina, Bathurst, Tamworth and Armidale. Smaller centres with momentum include Parkes, Kyogle, Kempsey, Mudgee, Griffith, Glen Innes, Forbes, Cootamundra , Young and Broken Hill.
A number of major markets that were previously leaders in Regional NSW are now showing signs of having passed their peaks in terms of sales demand, although several of these continue to deliver good price growth.
The Central Coast still has a small number of growth suburbs, but a much greater number of plateau markets – and now there are four we have classified as declining markets. 
This market is perhaps more influenced by Sydney than most in the Regional NSW and the level of sales activity has declined recently – although some locations still have price levels well above those of a year ago, including Shelly Beach (29%), Ettalong Beach (17%), Halekulani (11%), Saratoga (11%) and Wamberal (13%).
Newcastle still has four suburbs classified as rising markets, but many more than are plateau or consistency markets. There are similar trends with Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains – notably, most of them places quite close to Sydney.
While our survey found only 11 Regional NSW markets with median prices down more than 5% in the past year, five of them were in the Wollongong LGA, providing further evidence that this previously strong market is now past its peak.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional New South Wales continues to see property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over big city markets where prices are falling, the nation’s hottest markets keep flying under the radar screens of all but the best-informed investors.
I’ve written a lot about Regional Victoria, which I regard as the nation’s strongest market, in terms of both busy sales activity and big price increases, as well as affordable prices and good rental yields.
Most property watchers will be aware of the strength of markets like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, but new contenders keep popping up, many of them locations most people would know little about – or have never heard of.
During my most recent Live Q &amp; A on social media, someone asked what I thought about the market in Warburton (pictured top). I had to admit I knew little about the town. But something is happening in Warburton, up in the Yarra Ranges 70km east of central Melbourne. Its median price has risen 17% in the past year to reach $485,000.
Locations with those kind of growth numbers are the norm, not the exception, in Regional Victoria right now. And new ones keep emerging, replacing the early movers as market leaders.
This is because some of the state’s regional markets have passed their peaks. Geelong, for example, has been one of the nation’s most prolific markets in the past two years, but sales activity is no longer growing. It now has more plateau markets than rising ones. 
Other regions where demand has passed its peak (but price growth remains high) include the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham, Officer, Bunyip and Emerald), Baw Baw (Warragul, Drouin and Trafalgar), Surf Coast (Anglesea, Apollo Bay and Torquay), Bass Coast (Cowes, Inverloch and Wonthaggi) and Macedon Ranges (Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend).
But new growth markets continue to occur across Victoria. 
At Portland in the far south-west of the state, quarterly sales have been trending steadily upwards for the past two years. With a median house price of $235,000, affordability is a strong attraction, as well as the seaside lifestyle and the noted fishing resource.
Also in the south-west, there’s rising activity in Warrnambool, with median prices up 7% in Koroit and 5% in Warrnambool, while in nearby Port Fairy the median house price has risen 26% to $630,000.
In the Central Goldfields, quarterly sales in Maryborough have increased from 48 to 55 to 71 in the past year and its median house price has grown 18% to $230,000.
In the far east of the state, numerous locations have rising demand, including Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The median price in Lakes Entrance has grown 13% to $325,000 in the past year, while Metung is up 7% to $375,000.
Other Regional Victoria markets with growing signs of uplift include Bright (up 17% to $575,000), Shepparton (up 5% to $275,000), Wangaratta (up 14% to $315,000) and Wodonga (up 3% to $350,000).
Another location that blipped on our radar screen recently, thanks to a client inquiry, is the town of Benalla, where the median house price has increased 10% in the past 12 months, but remains attractively cheap at $275,000. One of the big local drivers is a business which has won a major contract with Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project, creating 400 local jobs.
And then there’s Echuca. After watching this market chug along steadily for years, I’ve been forced to include it in the new edition of Top 5 Regional Victoria Hotspots - because, well, it can no longer be ignored.
Echuca is one of those strong regional centres which form the backbone of the nation in industries like agriculture, tourism and manufacturing – and while many people have heard of it, few have ever been there.
Hotspotting has often featured Echuca in The Price Predictor Index on the National Top 50 list of most consistent markets, as measured by quarterly sales volumes. Indeed, in one of our 2017 editions of the quarterly report, we named it the nation’s most consistent market.
And it keeps on keeping on, driven by a strong and diversified local economy, and steady growth. In the past 12 months, its median house price has lifted 16% to $365,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Real estate hotspots continue to emerge in regional Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The Perth market is an example of how misleading – and indeed worthless – are the price figures published by research firms and mindlessly recycled by media.
According to most of the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire large city), Perth prices are down – but an in-depth analysis shows there are growth markets sprouting across the Perth metro area.
Domain, the ABS, SQM Research and realestate.com.au report that Perth houses prices, in annual terms, are down by between 2.2% and 3.6%. CoreLogic, always the odd one out with more negative numbers, says Perth is down 7.6%.
But our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that those generalised figures tell us nothing that’s useful. Against a background where most of the market data depicts recovery, 40% of Perth suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago.
Overall, the Perth market is the strongest it’s been since it lapsed into downturn five years ago (in general alignment with events in the resources sector). Vacancies are down (from 4.1% a year ago to 2.9% now, according to SQM), rents are rising again (according to most sources, including rent.com.au, SQM and the REIWA) and sales activity is up (there are more suburbs with rising buyer demand than at any time in the past five years). 
Recovery is under way – and this is starting to deliver price growth in some markets.
Our suburb-by-suburb analysis of 216 Perth markets shows that 85 have median prices higher than a year ago (58 have risen by less than 5% and 27 have risen 5% or more) and 131 suburbs have medians still lower than a year ago (72 are down by less than 5% and 59 have dropped 5% or more).
That means 40% of Perth suburbs have rising prices and 60% still have prices down.
Many of the locations with price growth are upmarket areas. Growth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million include Claremont (up 18%), Ardross (up 5%), East Fremantle (7%), Floreat (5%)_, Mosman Park (8%), South Perth (5%), Subiaco (7%) and West Leederville (10%). But the standout market is Mount Pleasant, where the median has risen 26% to $1.27 million in the past year.
Beyond the millionaire suburbs, growth markets include Brabham (up 21% to $395,000), Kensington (up 19% to $895,000) and West Perth (up 16% to $750,000).
There are also a number of suburbs which have recorded double-digit declines in their median prices. They are spread across the metropolitan area and the various price ranges, but a standout struggle market is the Kwinana LGA in the south, a noted affordable area for young buyers. Sales activity is down, against the general rising trend in Perth, in several Kwinana suburbs - and median prices are down in Bertram (7%), Leda (11%), Medina (6%), Orelia (17%) and Parmelia (10%). Most of these suburbs now have medians in the low-to-mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in the Perth market.
Overall, however, the data on prices across Perth is the most positive it has been in five years.
The outlook is even more optimistic when we examine sales activity. The number of suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets (53) is a record for Perth since we began our quarterly sales surveys four years ago.
The trend continues to be led by standout LGAs like Joondalup, Melville, Stirling and Wanneroo, with the Canning LGA emerging recently as a new growth contender.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Where the Perth property market is on the rise: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The number of growth markets in Regional Queensland is rising, helped by recovery in resources-related regional centres. Mackay is now the most upwardly-mobile market, having overtaken the softening Sunshine Coast market, and Gladstone is now showing signs of recovery, with some of its suburbs rising.
Regional Queensland markets collectively have improved in the past year or so: in the past five quarterly surveys of sales activity by Hotspotting, the number of locations with growing demand has increased from 30 to 36 to 40 to 45 to 48. 
The number of growth markets had decreased sharply in the late 2017 survey but showed steady improvement in 2018 and this has continued into 2019. 
The other key feature is the number of Regional Queensland markets with price growth. We analysed price movements in 313 markets and found 203 (65%) have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the 203 growth markets, 99 have recorded median price growth of 5% or more, while another 104 markets have increased by less than 5%.
Of the higher growth markets, 42 have increased by more than 10%, including 15 which have grown 20% or more. Some of the highest annual growth in median prices has been recorded in mining towns Emerald (up 24%), Clermont (up 33%) and Dysart (24%), but these are rising from a low base after several years of downturn.
A number of unit markets have recorded high growth in the median prices, including Noosa Heads (31%) and Peregian Springs (23%) on the Sunshine Coast; Airlie Beach (26%) in the Whitsundays; Bilinga (26%), Broadbeach Waters (27%) and Coolangatta (25%) on the Gold Coast; and East Toowoomba (29%) in the inland regional city of Toowoomba. 
Other growth markets are Sunshine Coast lifestyle locations Sunshine Beach (40%), Eumundi (23%) and Doonan (21%).
A standout characteristic is the recovery in resources-related markets which have spent the past few years in downturn. This trend is headed by Mackay, which now has rising demand coupled with much lower vacancies, and some suburbs are now showing good price growth.
Emerald, which is located near the mines of the Bowen Basin and the Galilee Basin, is a standout: quarterly sales have been 51, 57, 66, 62, 60, 76 and 78, while the median house price has risen 24% to $310,000 in the past 12 months. The trend here is a prime example of the recovery in the resources-related towns.
There’s further evidence of revival in Gladstone, in addition to the steady reduction in vacancies (now below 3%). In our latest analysis we have classified six Gladstone suburbs as rising markets and three suburbs (Clinton, Kin Kora and West Gladstone) have median house prices higher than a year ago. But the market remains patchy – some suburbs are still classified as decline or danger markets and most suburbs still have median prices lower than a year ago (but it’s significant that most of those suburbs have recorded an uplift in prices in the most recent quarter).
As always, never forget that markets that have strong links to the resources sector are volatile and are prone to major downturns. They’re not good places for risk-averse investors.
The larger, more diversified regional centres of Queensland continue to have steady markets, headed by Cairns and the Fraser Coast. Cairns has seven suburbs with rising sales activity, but prices have yet to react to improved demand – most Cairns suburbs have median prices lower than a year ago, although there are exceptions like Caravonica, Whitfield and Yorkeys Knob.
The Fraser Coast region, centred on Hervey Bay, now has six rising suburbs, like rapidly-improving Urangan. Toogoom, Tinana and Kawungan have all recorded strong price uplift in the past year.
Toowoomba remains a solid market without yet showing any overt growth signs, while Townsville has suffered setbacks from the recent major flooding.
The Sunshine Coast, which for some time has been the strongest of the Queensland markets, no longer has that mantle. It now has few suburbs with rising demand, but many plateau markets –which suggests this market may have passed its peak in terms of demand.
But it’s still producing strong price outcomes. Of the 99 Regional Queensland markets with annual price growth above 5%, 38 are in the Sunshine Coast region – plus another 24 suburbs have growth of less than 5%. Both house and apartment markets in and around Noosa continue to be leading performers on price growth. 
Sunshine Coast markets with annual growth above 10% include the Doonan, Eumundi, Mooloolaba, Maleny, Sunshine Beach, Woombye, Wurtulla, Pomona, Twin Waters and Peregian Beach house markets, as well as the Golden Beach, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Peregian Springs and Warana unit markets.
As we reported in the previous edition, the post-Games boost predicted by some has not eventuated on the Gold Coast. This market was strong from 2015 to 2017 because of the pre-Commonwealth Games construction boom. 
Since then the growth has subsided and it’s difficult to find any growth suburbs (in terms of sales activity) in Gold Coast City, but 41 suburbs classified as either plateau or consistency markets – plus a couple of decline markets. The price outcomes are also mixed: 57 suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago, but there are 27 with prices lower than last year.
A notable trend on the Gold Coast is that many of the best performers on price growth are apartment markets – but not the iconic beachside enclaves like Surfers Paradise, Main Beach and Broadbeach. The unit markets showing growth are in the inland suburbs like Ashmore, Benowa, Elanora, Helensvale, Pacific Pines and Mudgeeraba – or the beachside suburbs outside the glitter strip, like Bilinga, Coolangatta, Palm Beach and Runaway Bay.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Mackay leads regional Queensland price growth surge: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The biggest recurring problem for real estate is politicians who don’t understand the industry. Which is pretty much all of them, on both sides of politics.
They also display a chronic inability to think through the consequences of their policies designed to impact housing markets. This sad truth is evident in the policies from both the major parties in the impending Federal Election.
We’re going into Saturday’s poll with no policies from any of the major parties that address the fundamental problems of the housing industry, of which affordability is the biggest. What they’ve served up just fiddles around the edges of the problem.
The Liberal Party has announced a plan that will make it easier for first-time buyers to get loans with smaller deposits, by supporting loans to people who have saved 5% of the purchase price. Federal Labor has given a “me, too” response to that policy (and why not, they’re spending like drunken sailors, why not just add this to the national credit card as well).
But the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme will be available to only a limited number of FHB borrowers and it fails to address the core issues – the price they will pay for properties and the associated costs of getting into the market.
Labor’s core policy is changing negative gearing tax benefits. This is a revenue measure dressed up as a policy to improve housing affordability but clearly it won’t make a positive difference, while creating myriad problems elsewhere.
Whenever they’re asked whether their negative gearing policy will force down house prices, Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen are adamant that it won’t. That being the case, how does it improve affordability? The answer is: it doesn’t. It’s purely a revenue measure.
What the policy will do is put first-home buyers in direct competition with investors for new properties.
This is the polar opposite of the Labor’s stated intentions, because they say they want to prevent FHBs having to compete with investors. These clowns simply don’t understand their own policy or its consequences.
Currently most first-time buyers have to buy or build a new home if they want a state grant. And investors are encouraged to buy new by the recent changes to depreciation benefits. Now Labor says investors will get tax benefits through negative gearing only if they buy new.
So everyone will be compelled to buy new rather than established property. Labor’s policy puts FHBs on a collision course with investors.
The thing is, most buyers don’t want to buy new because it’s usually considerably more expensive than a comparable second-hand home. The core problem in real estate, and none of the major parties are addressing this, is the high cost of creating new dwellings in Australia. 
The costs are so high because all three levels of government milk real estate for revenue. They treat the housing industry as their favourite cash cow. Stamp duty, land tax, capital gains tax, GST, rates, infrastructure charges, application fees, the list goes on and on.
Every time a state or territory government brings down a budget, it adds to the affordability problem by increasing existing imposts or imposing new ones. It’s relentless and it’s the core of the affordability problem.
Everyone (if Labor wins) will be pushed to buy new property but the prices are unreasonably high, thanks to our cynical politicians.
This is occurring at a time when new supply is drying up, partly because federal and state policies have extinguished the contribution of foreign investors – officially to help FHBs but in truth just another grab for cash. 
The surcharges placed on foreign investors in Australian real estate are revenue-raising measures, pure and simple, but they’re hurting Australian buyers by killing off projects that can no longer make the required level of pre-sales to get funding. The reduced supply is just another component of the affordability problem. 
Another unforeseen consequence of the Labor policy will be a revival of the spruiker industry. With most categories of buyers being compelled to buy new – e.g. off-the-plan apartments – we will see a revival of the get-rich-quick seminars that used to proliferate, where crooks make lots of money by ripping off unsuspecting consumers.
So it's not much of a choice this Saturday for voters who care about the housing industry and its related issues, like housing affordability. 
Labor proposes to increase the taxation burden on the real estate industry, which will worsen the problem, and the Liberal pitch may make it easier for FHBs to get a loan to buy a home, but it won’t make the cost of the home cheaper.
It’s a choice between dumb and dumber.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
Currently MOST first-time buyers have to buy or build a new home if they want a state grant
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FHB deposit guarantee scheme shows politicians don't understand the housing market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media portrays Sydney as a market of universal and relentless decline, but our analysis shows there’s a lot more to the story. While sales activity and prices are down generally, there are many different scenarios playing out across the Greater Sydney Area. 
In Hotspotting’s latest quarterly survey of sales activity, we can find only three suburbs where sales activity is trending higher, but there are 90 suburbs with steady, consistent sales and a similar number of plateau markets (where activity has dropped from the peak but remains at solid levels).
And there are 61 suburbs classified as decline markets and 14 which we regard as danger markets, with the Sydney City, Parramatta, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown LGAs heading the list of markets to avoid.
Our analysis of 416 suburban markets in the Greater Sydney Area shows that 77% of them have median prices lower than a year so, while 23% have higher prices. Given the negative sensation about Sydney in mainstream media, many people would be surprised to learn that there are 95 Sydney markets where prices are not falling.
That includes 36 where median prices have risen by more than 5%, led by the top end of the Sydney market (suburbs with median prices above $2 million). Suburbs with median house prices above $2 million have recorded trend-defying growth, including Bellevue Hill (up 17%), Vaucluse (15%), Collaroy (22%), Palm Beach (17%), Artarmon (28%), Abbotsford (16%), Darling Point (12%) and Neutral Bay (17%), among others.
In another interesting trend that defies the general media rhetoric, there are 44 suburbs where the median house price is down but the media apartment price is up. This reflects the reality that many of the Sydney markets where prices have continued to grow against the overall trend are apartment precincts – it’s not happening across the board, but it’s a significant sub-plot in the Sydney market.
Our analysis of the Sydney market shows why the generalisations prevalent in media are so misleading for consumers. This Autumn survey has given ratings to 258 Sydney suburbs: 3 rising, 90 plateau, 90 consistency, 61decline and 14 danger markets. The absence of growth markets and the dominance of struggling ones is the over-riding trend, but there are other stories to be told in the Sydney market.
The strongest precincts are those that are displaying stubborn consistency of sales activity in the face of the general downturn.
The Sutherland LGA has two of only three rising suburbs (Jannali and Kirrawee), as well as five plateau and four consistency suburbs. The median price for Jannali units has risen 22% in the past year, while Kirrawee houses are up 3%. It’s notable that median prices for units have risen in many Sutherland suburbs, including Caringbah, Cronulla, Caringbah South, Gymea and Miranda, as well as Jannali.
Other precincts that are showing solidity, with plenty of consistency and plateau suburbs (and no decline or danger markets), including LGAs at the more affordable end of the market like Blacktown, Camden, Penrith, Wollondilly and Campbelltown.
The Blacktown LGA has one rising, three plateau and 10 consistency suburbs. A characteristic of this market is that median prices are down, but only a few percent in most suburbs – including Plumpton (-2%), Ropes Crossing (-2.3%), Schofields (-1.2%), Marsden Park (-0.4%), Blacktown units (-2%) and Mt Druitt units (-2.8%).
Other solid markets include the LGAs of Inner west, Northern Beaches, North Sydney,  Woollahra, Randwick and Fairfield.
Inner West suburbs where median prices are higher than a year ago include Annandale (units), Camperdown, Lilyfield, Rozelle (units), Dulwich Hill (units) and Stanmore (units).
Standout price performances in the steady Northern Beaches precinct include Collaroy, Narrabeen, Avalon Beach, Manly (units), Seaforth (units) and Newport (units).
The weakest precincts of the Sydney market are the LGAs of Parramatta, Sydney City, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Parramatta has six suburbs which we classify as danger markets: those where sales activity is sharply down, prices are falling and vacancies are high. These suburbs are Carlingford, Epping, North Parramatta, Parramatta, Wentworth Point and Rosehill. This LGA also has six suburbs ranked as decline markets.
Median prices are down sharply for North Parramatta houses (20%), Parramatta houses (30%), and Rosehill units (22%).
Sydney City has seven declining suburbs and two danger markets (Haymarket and Waterloo).
The Canterbury-Bankstown LGA has nine suburbs classified as declining markets, based on a sharp decrease in sales activity over the past 12-18 months: Bankstown, Belmore, Campsie, Canterbury, Croydon Park, Lakemba, Padstow, Panania and Roselands.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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What's really going on in the Sydney real estate market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
State Government approvals which appear to green light the Adani coal project represent a clear and present danger for property investors with poor research and short memories. 
I was alarmed to see News Ltd media publishing stories with headlines like this: “Adani impact: Mining towns on cusp of a housing boom”.
This article was repeated in various forms of media across the nation, with content like this: “After years of poor property price growth, cities like Gladstone, Rockhampton and Emerald are poised to become an investors’ paradise following the State Government’s decision to give the green light for the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin.
“Home prices in towns like Bowen, Longreach and Moranbah, which are up to 73% below their peak, could be on the cusp of a major rebound with work on the Carmichael coal mine set to start immediately.”
Investors’ paradise? Seriously? This is the pinnacle in irresponsible journalism. Anything goes, it seems, in the interests of creating clickbait.
And Longreach to experience an Adani related boom? It’s about 600km south-west of the mine site and, as far as I can tell, has nothing to do with the project or its alleged benefits. (There have been some concerns expressed by Longreach farmers about negative impacts on water resources).
Let’s get some perspective. Mining towns have shown themselves in the recent past to be more of a fool’s paradise than an investor’s paradise. They’re at the extreme danger end of the risk spectrum for property investors. More people have lost money than made fortunes investing in places like Moranbah and Gladstone.
There’s no doubt that many of these places have shown exceptional price growth at times in their history and have also delivered periods of very high rental returns. But the booms have been followed by disastrous busts.
At one point, during the last resources investment boom, Moranbah’s median house price topped $700,000. It had an annual average growth rate around 30% - that’s 30% per year over 10 years. Weekly rents around $1,500 were common.
But what happened next is the core lesson for investors: the major mining companies became fed up with paying those sorts of rents and prices for very ordinary houses. And they came up with a new model that cost them less – they constructed temporary workers’ camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) workers.
The median house price of Moranbah dropped to around $150,000 and vacancies went above 10%, with a dramatic negative effect on rents.
In the past year or so, the market there has started to recover. Vacancies have come down to below 2% and prices are rising again (from a very low base). 
But will the opening of major new mines create a new housing boom? It’s unlikely, because the mining companies have established a successful model of FIFO workers and workers camps. Those crazy booms of the past won’t be repeated. Any peripheral upsurge in values will be temporary.
Right now, the long-term growth rate for Moranbah prices (the average annual change over the past 10 years) is -3% per year. That’s minus 3% per year. Which means the current median price – around $205,000 – is considerably lower than it was 10 years ago.
The Moranbah story has been repeated in mining-related locations elsewhere in Queensland, including Gladstone, Emerald and the towns of the Surat Basin. It’s also happened, spectacularly, in resources centres in Western Australia, like Port Hedland and Karratha.
Gladstone had a big property market slump while three huge gas plants costing $60 billion were under construction. The market in Newman in the Pilbara region of WA dived while Gina Rinehart was building a $10 billion iron ore mine near the town.
All suffered from the same syndrome: while developers built lots of new dwellings in anticipation of a property boom, the resources companies built workers camps and many of the new homes sat empty, creating a property downturn.
The notion that a big new mine means a housing boom for nearby towns is no longer valid.
And, when you read a little deeper into the News Ltd article, you find this:
CoreLogic senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said it was hard to say what the approval of the mine would mean for the surrounding regions because there was still a lot of contention around how many local jobs would be created.
“If you assume job creation is significant, it will increase demand for housing both from a purchase and rental perspective,” Mr Kusher said. “The challenge will be that since the end of the mining boom these areas have seen very low demand for housing so, if demand exceeds supply you would expect rents and prices to increase, however, I can’t say with any confidence whether that will or won’t be the case.”
I agree with those sentiments. And I would go further – the big property booms in mining towns are history, unless the miners’ modus operandi changes.
There will be some benefits to property markets from the Adani mine, if it goes ahead (it still has some federal regulatory hurdles to get over). Townsville will benefit from having the project HQ, Bowen is close to the export port and may get some spinoff - and Mackay may benefit through proximity and the ability to provide workers, perhaps.
I regard Mackay as a growth property market, because it is benefitting from the revival in Central Queensland mining plus – and this is the key factor – it has other growth elements to its economy. It’s not solely reliant on a buoyant mining sector.
Investors seeking to exploit the Central Queensland mining revival would be better off considering the larger, more diversified regional cities like Mackay, rather than the small towns near the mine sites.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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