Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
We're not asking the right questions. That's why the property industry is getting so many misleading answers about important issues.
I think this explains, in part, why so many believe we have an affordability crisis and a housing shortage, when so much of the research data contradicts these widely-held beliefs.
Surveys of prospective first home buyers usually ask whether they think they can afford a home. The answer is meaningless, or at best misleading, unless there are further questions.
Those might include:
<ul>
<li>
Why do you think you can't afford to buy? 
</li>
<li>
Have you tried to buy? 
</li>
<li>Where have you looked? </li>
<li>Are you willing to compromise to get into the market?</li>
</ul>
The big problem, as I see it, is not an affordability problem but an expectation problem.
If you read between the lines in industry surveys and street interviews by media, it's clear many wannabe home buyers have a perceived problem because they've absorbed newspaper headlines and looked no further.
Why bother when you read daily that prices are through the roof (when in reality this is true only of Sydney)?
Others have a problem because they want their dream situation in their first purchase. People are quick to complain they can't afford a home but then we discover they want to live in a million dollar suburb.
Many commentators on real estate issues such as affordability apparently believe nothing ever changes. The assumption is that the current generation of young adults want what their parents wanted and should behave accordingly. That assumption is wrong.
<blockquote>
The big problem, as I see it, is not an affordability problem but an expectation problem.
</blockquote>
When the market share of first time buyers declines, it's assumed there's an affordability problem. No other option is considered. The possibility of demographic change is overlooked.
This is the nub of the issue because it's clear that today's 20-something's have different priorities to their parents. Married with kids and a mortgage before the age of 30 is not on the bucket list. Lifestyle takes priority and commitments can wait.
There's a similar issue with the idea of an undersupply of housing. Individuals and organisations stating under-supply as a fact (one that's accepted by many journalists without question) also fall into the trap of believing nothing changes.
Their analysis is flawed because they're using out-dated models about how many new dwellings are needed for a particular level of population growth. The assumption is that the average household size is X and if you divide population growth by X, that's how many houses should be built.
But a lot has changed. Young Australians are staying longer at home with their parents. Overseas migrants comprise a major chunk of population growth but it's coming from non-traditional sources with different household patterns.
Household sizes are rising again. Whereas in the past the typical household was a small family in a big house with surplus bedrooms, people are now buying homes that reflect their actual needs - e.g. opting for a two-bedroom apartment rather than a large, expensive and wasteful four-bedroom house.
The bottom line is that housing demand is created when someone buys a block of land and engages a builder. If that's not happening to the degree many expect because of what their formula tells them, then the formula is flawed.
The industry that complains about the alleged housing shortage is the industry whose job it is to build houses. If the vast undersupply they claim is real, there's a massive opportunity being missed by the industry doing the grizzling.
The industry will continue spinning its wheels until it starts asking the right questions. If there's a shortage, where are the queues at housing estates? And why is there no rental growth? And what are the real reasons young people have stopped buying in numbers?
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The problem with first home buyers isn't affordability, it's expectations

<html><body>
The biggest market trend happening nationally is that smaller capital cities and larger regional centres are rising, while the two biggest cities are trending downwards.
Economists and other commentators who like to generalise keep telling us that the rate of growth in “Australian house prices” is declining and “the property market” generally is losing steam.
But they’re really talking about everyone’s obsession, Sydney, and ignoring the myriad different scenarios playing out in markets across the nation.
Sydney and Melbourne are still prominent in terms of annual price growth, but sales activity confirms that both Sydney and Melbourne are gradually heading south from their peaks, especially Sydney which is ahead of Melbourne in the cycle. 
In terms of the number of individual growth markets, the two biggest cities are being overtaken by some of the smaller state capitals. Both Canberra and Hobart are heading up while the two big cities are trending down.
But the headline trend is that regional markets are becoming dominant. 
If we divide the nation into jurisdictions comprising the capital cities and regional areas of each of the states, the two leading jurisdictions right now (the ones with the most growth locations) are Regional Queensland and Regional New South Wales. 
Regional Victoria also has a growing number of upwardly-mobile markets. In NSW, Victoria and Queensland, the regions now have more growth markets than their capital cities.
Among the rising markets is the Newcastle/Hunter region, which is the stand-out precinct in Regional NSW. The Lake Macquarie LGA on the fringe of Newcastle has five growth suburbs and several other steady ones. Other LGAs close to Newcastle with growth momentum include Port Stephens, Maitland and Cessnock. 
Both Singleton and Muswellbrook, which suffered when the coal downturn coincided with new supply, are continuing to mount comebacks. They form part of another trend in regional Australia, whereby many of the locations worst hit by the end of the resources investment boom are showing increasing signs of revival in their property markets. 
In Western Australia, centres like Port Hedland and Karratha (which had massive reductions in property values in recent years) now have sales activity rising again. 
In Queensland, regional centres like Mackay, Emerald and Dalby are showing signs of recovery. Even coal-mining town Moranbah, the quintessential boom-bust town, now has sales growing again. 
I’m not suggesting investors should be considering buying there – these locations have volatile markets at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum. I simply observe that they’re part of a revival of fortunes in some parts of regional Australia.
They’re also part of my argument that we don’t have a single market in Australia but many different ones – and they’re not all moving in the same direction or at the same speed.
While Sydney is waning, Canberra is starting to rise. Perth, which has been doing the polar opposite of Sydney over the past four years, is continuing the trend by moving into a recovery phase.
In the recent past, I have suggested that the first glimpses of recovery could be seen in Perth. Now the city has a significant number of suburbs with growing sales activity, for the first time in four years. 
So next time you see commentary from someone who discusses Australia as a single market, keep in mind the many different scenarios currently playing out in Sydney, Canberra, Hobart, Perth and the various centres across regional Australia.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Smaller capital cities and larger regional centres rising

<html><body>
The fondness of researchers, economists and media for generalised data is the curse of the real estate consumers trying to figure out what is really going on in the nation’s various housing markets. 
Using a single number to describe the market in a major city - or, in some cases, the entire nation – is as common as it is ludicrous.
Here’s a typical statement which is worse than useless, because not only does it fail to tell anyone anything worth knowing but it creates a misleading impression: “Australian house prices rose 4.0 percent in the past year”.
The first point is that this figure does not describe Australian house prices, it’s actually the capital cities that allegedly rose 4.0 percent.
But the 4.0 percent figure does not accurately depict the housing market in any of the eight cities. 
In Hobart, according to this source, prices rose 13 percent, in Melbourne they were up 9 percent and Canberra was up 6 percent. In both Perth and Darwin, prices fell in annual terms, according to these figures.
There are also myriad different scenarios happening across regional Australia.
So what does the 4.0 percent mean? In reality, absolutely nothing of any value.
The same approach, commonly reported by mainstream media, tells us that “Australian apartment prices” have risen 5.1 percent in the past 12 months.
This is similarly meaningless. Prices fell in Brisbane, Perth and Darwin and were largely unchanged in Adelaide.  Prices rose in Melbourne and Hobart, but not by 5.1 percent – Melbourne was up 8.4 percent and Hobart rose 9.1 percent.
The same source purports to provide a guide on the value of Australian homes. The median dwelling price, apparently, is about $656,000.
Publication of a figure like that can set off a range of comments from multiple sources, many of them expressing outrage that young Australians can’t afford to pay $656,000 for a typical home.
But, again, the figure is misleading and nonsensical. It’s the median value of a home in the combined capital cities, but six of the eight capital cities have median home values considerably lower than that figure.
The generalised national figure is inflated by the size of the Sydney market, where the median home is allegedly worth $895,000, and the Melbourne market, where the median home value is claimed to be $720,000.
But in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin, the median home value is in the $400,000s. Adelaide, for example, is $433,000 and Hobart is $404,000.
And, given that these are medians, it means that half of all recent sales have been at prices below that median figure.
The single number describing Sydney does not in any way recognise the differences between Bondi and Blacktown, or Mosman and Macquarie Fields.
So why is the use and abuse of these numbers so widespread? Because the goal of pontificators is not to inform, but to generate publicity – and the use of these cheap and nasty statistics makes it easy.
It would require some effort to give consumers information worth having.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Single numbers can't answer for whole city property market

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After several years of investors achieving easy growth in our two biggest cities, the national real estate landscape has changed. 
Investors need to look elsewhere to find the upwardly-mobile markets, and it’s not so easy to find them because mainstream media is writing about the Sydney-Melbourne downturn and generally ignoring the rising markets in other parts of the nation.
Hotspotting’s new Top 10 Best Buys reports highlights the new growth markets, which are occurring in our smaller cities and the regions.
Here are five possibilities, many of them places you might not have thought of …
Belconnen District, ACT
I’ve often referred to Canberra as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate - not too hot, not too cold, just right. It continues to show a high level of consistency, especially with sales activity. 
But, amid that familiar consistency, there is evidence of recent uplift. The Winter 2018 survey for The Price Predictor Index identifies an increasing number of Canberra suburbs with growth trajectories. 
That quarterly survey also shows that the Belconnen District is the clear market leader in Canberra, by a considerable margin. It has seven rising suburbs – including Bruce, Florey, Flynn, Holt and Macgregor - and others with steady sales performance.
The strong sales data reflects other statistics depicting a strong Canberra market. Vacancies remain below 1 percent (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising strongly and there is evidence of solid price growth, notably in the Top End suburbs with median prices above $1 million.
Some forecasters predict Canberra will lead the capital cities on price increases in the next few years, with Belconnen suburbs likely to be at the forefront of the growth.
Port Adelaide precinct, South Australia
Port Adelaide may have missed out on the AFL finals, but its real estate market looks like a winner.
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA is now one of the busiest markets in the SA capital, with a number of its suburbs attracting rising demand.
Defence Force contracts totalling $89 billion and other government initiatives are set to launch Port Adelaide into a new stratosphere.
The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved into the precinct; and a new rail spur will link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD.
These and several smaller projects are creating much-needed jobs, turning historic Port Adelaide into a thriving residential, commercial and tourist destination.
Bendigo, Victoria
Bendigo (pictured top) has long been one of Victoria’s key regional centres, with growth thanks to its steady local economy, proximity to Melbourne and good transport links to the capital – especially now the $5 billion Regional Rail Link has been completed.
Its economic prospects have improved with the $630 million re-development of Bendigo’s hospital, private sector plans to develop the city’s first master-planned residential community, and the awarding of a $1.3 billion Defence contract to a Bendigo-based business. 
Bendigo benefits economically from a number of major companies which are based locally but perform nationally – including Thales, the company that received the Defence contract recently.
It has had steady long-term price growth (averaging around 5% per year) in its housing market but it remains affordable, with solid rental yields available for investors (most suburbs have median yields between 4.5 and 5.5 percent). 
And recently, sales activity has increased, boosted by both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne seeking affordability and growth. Most of Bendigo’s suburbs have median house prices between $250,000 and $380,000 – and prices are now starting to rise.
Stirling LGA, WA
The Stirling LGA is one of four precincts in the Perth metropolitan area leading the recovery in the Perth property market, following the city’s four-year real estate downturn. 
Properties across this precinct maintained a steadier performance than most Perth locations throughout the recent economic downturn - and now 10 of its suburbs have rising markets, including Carine, Doubleview, Gwelup, Innaloo, Joondanna and Tuart Hill..
The City of Stirling offers a leisurely seaside lifestyle, being home to the internationally renowned Scarborough Beach. Trendy bars and cafes impart a youthful vibrancy, attracting a steady stream of 20–40-year-olds. 
Further adding to the region’s appeal are the shopping and education facilities, coupled with good transport links to the Perth CBD.
The Stirling LGA has some affordable suburbs with medians in the $300,000s, but most suburbs are middle-market areas with typical prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s.
Queanbeyan, NSW
The proximity of Queanbeyan (now part of the newly-formed Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area) to the nation’s capital is paying dividends for local property markets. 
The region is experiencing strong population growth, unemployment is low, new housing estates are under construction and there are plans for the nearby Canberra International Airport to become a 24-hour freight hub.
But the most appealing aspect of Queanbeyan is its affordability relative to Canberra, with median prices for both houses and units below those in the national capital. It’s also helped by NSW incentives for first-home buyers.
Property sales activity in Queanbeyan increased in 2016, leading it to become a standout region for growth, and the uplift continued in 2017 and into 2018.
With Canberra forecast to be one of the nation’s leading cities for price growth in the next few years, Queanbeyan’s links to the capital are expected to boost the local market.
Good rental yields are another attraction, with several suburbs having median yields around 4–5% for houses and 5.5% for units.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Five hotspots you may not think of: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Most property-watchers are aware of the Tasmanian property boom, with attention focused on Hobart as the national leader for capital city price growth, for suburbs with the shortest time-on-market and for the nation’s lowest vacancy rates.
But there’s more to the Tassie story than Hobart. The second city Launceston is also thriving.
Launceston has seen good price growth in the last 12 months, with double-digit increases in the median house prices of several suburbs. This market also features vacancies below 2% and strong rental yields above 5.5%. 
And the future looks strong, starting with the underlying economy – always pivotal in the fortunes of property markets.
The Launceston City Deal, financially supported by all three levels of Government, has secured Launceston’s future as a “University Town”. 
Under the plan, Launceston will be the recipient of serious spending on infrastructure for industries such as education, construction, the Defence Force, transport and forestry. Launceston General Hospital is being upgraded, new industrial estates are emerging and new housing estates are opening up. 
In the 2016 Census, the population of Launceston was 81,000. Other reports suggest around 100,000 live in and around Launceston. 
It is one of Australia’s oldest cities and is home to many historic buildings, including the General Post Office. It’s the commercial hub for northern Tasmania’s agricultural and pastoral activities which, in recent years, have evolved from the growing of apples to viticulture. 
Wool is also an important industry while $130 million has been spent on the Meander Dam and irrigation infrastructure to support the agricultural sector. 
Launceston has a diverse range of industries, including manufacturing, minerals and resources, commercial shipping, tourism and educational facilities. 
Human pharmaceuticals manufacturing earns the region about $130 million each year. Tasmanian Alkaloids, located near Westbury, is the largest exporter of opiates from which codeine and morphine are derived. The company employs 200 local people. 
Premium beer drinkers will be familiar with the name James Boag. The Brewery employs around 150 and produces 76,000,000 litres of beer annually. 
Manufacturing makes the largest contribution to the local economy, earning over $1 billion per year. George Town Seafoods announced in April 2016 that it will double production at its processing facility. The business employs 70 people in peak production periods. 
The Bell Bay Aluminium smelter, about 45km from Launceston, is one of the state’s biggest employers claiming 1,500 direct and indirect jobs. 
Tourism employs 2,500 and is worth $340 million a year to the local economy. Around 1.29 million passengers used Launceston airport in 2015, and following a redevelopment completed in mid- 2016, the airport expects to cater for two million passengers each year by 2030. 
Numerous wineries operate along the Tamar Valley which produces about 40% of Tasmania’s premium wines. Another main attraction is Cataract Gorge, home to the longest single span chairlift in the world while Launceston is often called the ‘Garden City’ because of its many parklands. 
Launceston Airport offers regular flights to Melbourne (where travellers can connect with international flights), Sydney and Brisbane. 
Launceston is now one of the leading property markets in regional Australia, attracting mainland investors. The city features prominently in The Price Predictor Index published by hotspotting.com.au, as it has several suburbs with growing sales activity, while the nearby West Tamar LGA also has growth markets. 
Affordable Invermay (median house price $248,000) typifies the growth in this region, the number of annual sales leaping from 64 in 2017 to 99 early in 2018. 
The increased sales activity has delivered a median price rise of 8% in the last 12 months. 
On the other side of the North Esk River, the inner- city of Launceston has seen the median house price grow 23%, resulting in a median price of $449,000. 
The median house price in Newstead, another inner- city suburb with 121 annual sales, has risen 13% to $365,000, while Norwood is up 13% to $348,000. Further out, the median house price in Hadspen is $315,000 following a 14% rise in 12 months. 
Interstate buyers have become common, attracted by the state’s affordability, combined with positive developments in the city. 
Agents have reported that about 30% of buyers in Launceston hail from Sydney - and many intend to move to Launceston rather than buying for investment purposes. 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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More to Tasmania than Hobart as Launceston also thrives: Terry Ryder

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Major projects are in the planning pipeline for Darwin and the Northern Territory and Darwin’s real estate market desperately needs some of them to proceed.
The local economy lacks activity, jobs creation and population growth – and, as a consequence, property market statistics remain highly negative. 
The regular data on prices and rents continue to show the Darwin market in reverse. Unit prices in Darwin, for example, are down 10.6% (CoreLogic) or 11.7% (SQM Research) in annual terms. The trends also remain negative for house prices and rentals.
Unlike the other downturn capital city, Perth, there are as yet no signs of recovery for Darwin.
The Darwin market downturn has coincided with the end of the resources investment boom and the consequent decline in the Northern Territory economy. As a result, jobs creation and population growth has suffered.
This inevitably has fed through to Darwin real estate, with sales activity falling away dramatically. In Darwin City, residential sales totalled between 435 and 565 in every quarter of 2014 and 2015. But in 2017, quarterly sales been regularly below 330. 
In the apartment market, the rate of sale in 2014 and 2015 was well over 200 sales per quarter, but in 2017 the average was less than 150 per quarter.
The slump has been even more dramatic in the Palmerston LGA adjoining Darwin City. Residential sales totalled over 1,200 in 2014 and 1,100 in 2015, but below 500 in 2017. 
Given that Palmerston is where most of the new residential suburbs have been emerging, these figures illustrate the slump in buyer demand for new homes in the Darwin market.
This has pushed down prices markedly. Virtually every suburb in the Darwin metropolitan area has recorded price decline in the past quarter, the past year and the past three years. 
Most suburbs in the Darwin region have house price levels lower than five years ago.
Examples include the suburb of Alawa, where the median house price has dropped 9% in the latest quarter, 10% in the past year and 22% in the past three years. Its median house price is now $465,000.
In Karama, the median price has dropped 6% in the past quarter, 11% in the past year and 22% in the past three years, and is now $430,000. The Moulden median house price is down 2% (quarter), 11% (12 months) and 20% (three years) to reach $310,000.
There are similarly negative results in the apartment market.
There are two exceptions to this story of decline: the upmarket suburbs of Nightcliff (median house price $770,000) and Rapid Creek ($720,000) have each recorded growth in the past quarter, year and three years - and, unlike most Darwin suburbs, have median prices higher than five years ago.
Significantly, Nightcliff and Rapid Creek show up in Hotspotting’s quarterly surveys of sales activity as suburbs with fairly consistent sales performance. This is in contrast to our overall findings, where most suburbs are classified as danger markets (which means sales activity has dropped markedly and remain well below the peak levels). 
Beyond the Darwin metropolitan area, Alice Springs continues to be the strongest market in the Territory, based on the consistency of its sales performance. It has recorded between 100 and 130 dwelling sales in most of the past 12 quarters - and lately has shown an upward trend.
The Alice house market was at its strongest in 2015 and now quarterly sales (rising from 62 to 73 to 77 to 88 house sales in the past four quarters) are approaching those levels again.
As a result, and in sharp contrast to Darwin, most suburbs in Alice Springs have shown solid growth in median house prices. Braitling, East Side, Larapinta and Gillen have all recorded growth in the past quarter, year and three years.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Darwin sales falling away dramatically

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I’ve been trying to convince people, without much success, that Adelaide is an economy and property market worthy of serious attention.
There’s rising potential in the South Australian economy, based on its status as the Australian capital for high-tech innovation and alternative energy, and great value-for-money in the Adelaide real estate market.
This week there was some support for my position from Deloitte Access Economics. In its latest assessment of the state and territory economies, it says that South Australia is poised to become the nation’s fastest-growing economy this financial year, as it achieves its best growth since before the GFC.
“South Australia continues to sprint ... so much so that it may wrest the title of ‘fastest growth in the nation’ this year from the ACT,” the Deloitte Access Economics’ Outlook for March says. “The news will come as a surprise to many …”
Yes, many would be surprised, but South Australia and Adelaide tend to be largely ignored in a media that’s obsessed with Sydney and Melbourne.
The tendency to report city real estate markets in terms of a single growth figure gives the impression that not a lot is happening in Adelaide.
It’s easy to be misled by generalised price data, which distils all the market activity in a major city into a single figure describing what prices are allegedly doing.
As one stark example, there are over 700 suburbs in the Sydney metropolitan area but it’s deemed sensible and meaningful to describe this vast urban area as a single market with one figure claiming that “Sydney house prices” have fallen 3.8% in the past year (according to one source).
But a breakdown of individual market precincts show that some are still rising, others are stagnating, still others are falling a little and one or two are declining rather a lot (mostly the near-city areas like the inner western suburbs and the inner south).
So it’s easy to be turned off Adelaide, because the generalised data suggests that “Adelaide house prices” have risen only 2 or 3 percent in the past year. Not much growth there, it seems.
But individual suburbs and sub-markets are doing considerably better. The secret to success for buyers is to find the out-performers, which exist in most situations.
It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months. 
Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a strong market up-cycle (we’ve seen this also in the recovering Perth market).
Glenelg South, Gilberton, Hawthorn, Kensington Gardens, Rosslyn Park and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and all have recorded median price growth above 20% in the past year. 
Other million-dollar suburbs like Glenunga, Toorak Gardens and Unley have had growth above 10%.
Other up-market suburbs with median prices above $800,000 have had double-digit growth, including Glenelg East, Linden Park, Lower Mitcham, Parkside and Stoneyfell. Mitcham’s median is up 25%.
The above-average growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with median price growth between 10% and 20% spread across all price ranges. 
This reinforces the reality that out-performing locations can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Lower-end markets with strong median price growth in the past 12 months include Elizabeth (up 16% to $250,000), Parafield Gardens (up 11% to $335,000), and Salisbury (up 13% to $330,000).
I’m expecting more strong growth in Adelaide because, as I have observed previously, there is momentum in the state economy and this will give impetus to the capital city property market.
This week’s assessment by Deloitte Access Economics tends to support that view.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Adelaide economy and property market worthy of serious attention

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If you can believe the headlines, Australian property values are falling. The thing is, you can’t believe the headlines. In most of our major markets, values are not falling at all. 
The problem is the way research firms and economists like to generalise about price data, with a single number describing movements in the mythical thing they call “Australian property prices”. Like most generalised figures, this serves only to create confusion and misinformation. 
According to recent headlines, national values are falling, which means the average situation with prices is a small decline. This was an annual decrease of 0.4 percent, according to one source.
But, lurking behind this pointless and misleading single figure which apparently depicts our entire vast nation, are the following factors:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Regional areas overall are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">Five of the eight capital cities are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">The only significant market showing annual decline is Sydney, but the size of that market is dragging down the overall average.</li>
</ul>
The truth is that Australia abounds with major cities, some capital, some regional, with growth markets. Inspired by that reality, here are my ten leading cities with growth trajectories in 2018:-
Hobart: The Tasmanian capital is currently recording double-digit growth in its house prices and is likely to continue showing growth, underpinned by a vastly improved state economy. Property is selling faster there than any other capital city, vacancies are lower there than anywhere else and there’s no sign of activity slowing down. 
Canberra: Most research sources have Canberra values rising steadily. SQM Research’s index has Canberra up 8.5 percent. This is not surprising as the ACT economy is strong, Canberra vacancies are almost as low as Hobart’s, rents are rising and land prices are high (as a result of the ACT Government controlling land releases). All things considered, Canberra should be a national leader on price growth this year.
Brisbane: Overall, Brisbane isn’t showing much growth, but values are rising. When you look behind the generalised data, there are precincts with strong price rises. I expect Brisbane growth to gradually pick up this year because the underlying economy is improving, population data is favouring South-East Queensland again and infrastructure spending is rising. The affordability comparison also favours Brisbane.
Adelaide: The SA capital is similar to Brisbane. The generalised data shows only minor price growth, but individual precincts are doing much better, especially the top end. The SA economy is stronger than most realise and its steady improvement will boost the property market. I expect price growth is pick up as the year progresses. Adelaide offers great value-for-money and much better yields than the biggest cities.
Perth: The WA capital is one of those cities where values overall are still down, but it depends on whose figures you believe. SQM records a 3 percent annual rise in its Asking Prices Index for Perth. My own research shows that most of the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit growth in the past year. There’s no doubt the Perth downturn is over and we will see further evidence of growth as the year unfolds.
Melbourne fringes: The single-growth figure to describe an entire large city never tells the full story. Melbourne overall has passed its peak but the outer ring suburbs are still very strong. The price growth in the past year in the northern fringes around Epping, the far south-east including Cranbourne, and the south-western regions around Werribee and Wyndham Vale, has been exceptional. 
Newcastle/Hunter Region: The City of Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding markets recently. Values overall have increased in double digits and many suburbs have grown their median house prices by over 20 percent. The local economy is thriving and the affordability comparison with Sydney has helped. Now the growth is rippling out to nearby areas, including the towns of the Hunter region.
Geelong and nearby regions: Geelong has been the outstanding market in Victoria in the past year or so, and continues to deliver strong sales activity and price growth. It’s part of a wider trend, in which regional centres close to Melbourne are attracting spill-over population growth and demand for homes. Locations north and south of Melbourne continue to attract extraordinary sales activity and price growth.
Ballarat: This strong regional city could be included the previous paragraph as a regional centre near the state capital, but it deserves its own exclusive mention. More and more Melbourne buyers are targeting Ballarat because it’s well-connected to the big city and offers attractive affordability and a different kind of lifestyle. This is now a very busy market and I expect prices to show solid rises this year.
Sunshine Coast: I know many who followed our advice and bought into the Sunshine Coast market 12-18 months ago: they’re happy punters. The region’s economy is transitioning to a place of greater diversity and strength – and this is driving real estate demand. It’s attracting lots of new residents. This process is still in its infancy and there’s plenty more growth to come. Noosa, which has under-achieved for 10 years, has joined the growth party.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's top 10 real estate growth cities in 2018: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Entrenched habits die hard and it’s difficult to shake people’s rigid views about certain locations.
This, despite everything that’s happened recently, applies to the hottest market in Australia right now, Hobart.
Hobart has been leading city Australia for some time on a number of parameters, including highest price growth, fastest-selling locations, lowest vacancy rates and highest rental yields, as well as having the lowest prices among the state and territory capitals.
Many remain unconvinced for a host of entrenched but out-of-date reasons: it’s not sustainable, the economy is weak, there’s no population growth, the city is too small, no one wants to live there, etc.
The reality is that much has changed. And it’s because of these fundamental changes that Hobart has a booming property market. It also provides clues as to which city will rise next.
Tasmania previously ranked as the weakest economy in the nation. It consistently ranked last or second last on most of the key parameters. But that’s old news. Tasmania’s economy has improved markedly and it now is entrenched in fourth ranking among the eight state and territory economies, according to CommSec.
Previously Tasmania generated little or no population growth, because of the once weak economy, but that has changed too. Now Tasmania is a net gainer from interstate migration and overseas migration – not with the big numbers of Victoria or Queensland, but now growing again.
Housing affordability is partly the cause. Hobart has been easily the cheapest of the capital cities for houses and apartments, but perhaps not for much longer. Such has been the strength of its price growth that it may soon overtake cities like Adelaide and Darwin in terms of its median house price.
According to one source, Hobart has been the price growth leader for 10 consecutive months. Its median prices now are around $450,000 for houses and $350,000 for units.
Price growth has been underpinned by that strong state economy and an increased level of spending on infrastructure, as well as growing numbers of buyers attracted by the relatively low prices.
Recent research suggested that Hobart is now the most unaffordable capital city for renters – that’s typical rents relative to typical local incomes (May Rental Affordability Index). This is bad news for local tenants but good news for investor owners.
Hobart rents have been rising because vacancies have been well under 1 percent for a long time – the lowest among the capital cities, challenged only by Canberra.
A recent survey found 40 Hobart suburbs with no rentals available at all, while another 31 suburbs had only three or fewer available for rent. It’s been suggested that local councils have been very slow to approve new dwellings, creating a shortage of rental supply.
So should you be rushing off to buy in Hobart? Not necessarily. Two years ago would have been a great time to buy there but there’s already been a lot of growth. There’s a case for building new dwellings there, if you have high levels of patience.
The smartest of investors will look at what’s happened in Hobart, understand why it’s risen and then ask the core question: where next?
Given that Hobart’s run has been driven by affordable prices, low vacancies, a strengthening economy and elevated infrastructure spending, I’d suggest the next place to look for uplift is Adelaide.
But, like Hobart, Adelaide is a hard sell. Many people have entrenched negative views about Adelaide, as they do about Hobart. And no level of change in circumstances will change the unshakeable views.
But I’m increasingly bullish about Adelaide, with its improving economy, strengthening confidence levels, growing status as the national capital for hi-tech innovation and alternative energy - and all that’s coming up in the construction pipeline, including those big contracts to building submarines and other vessels for the Navy.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Australia's hottest property market - and where's next?

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
The many positive market indicators 
Here are some questions that go to the heart of how mainstream media reports residential property:- 
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li3">Why does most of the media ignore the data from the ABS, realestate.com.au, Domain, SQM Research and the REIA? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are growth figures for Regional Australia markets seldom published? </li>
<li class="li3">Why are alternative measures of property markets - like vacancies, rents and land prices - seldom published? </li>
</ol>
The answer to all those questions is this: mainstream media is interested in negatives. They publish CoreLogic data because it’s the most pessimistic. Most other sources contradict CoreLogic figures, providing a different perspective on what’s truly happening in our markets. 
Mainstream media ignores Regional Australia because that’s where most of the big growth markets are – or because events outside of our major cities are deemed to be unimportant. 
Media seldom focuses on vacancies/rents because they tell a positive story. Vacancies are falling in most capital cities and rents are up in most city markets. 
According to recent price data published by Louis Christopher’s SQM Research, half of our capital city markets are up, compared with a year ago. In some cases, they are up only marginally, but they are up nevertheless. 
City markets with prices higher than a year ago are: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li3">Adelaide houses </li>
<li class="li3">Brisbane houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra houses </li>
<li class="li3">Canberra apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Darwin apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart houses </li>
<li class="li3">Hobart apartments </li>
<li class="li3">Melbourne apartments </li>
</ul>
Most reports on prices exclude regional Australia, which means our most upbeat markets receive little or no airplay.
Regional Victoria is, I believe, the strongest market in the nation. Big price growth in being recorded in many of its markets, including Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.
Pretty much everywhere in Regional Tasmania has rising prices. In Regional New South Wales, 85% of locations have rising prices, according to our recent location-by-location survey. 
Parts of Regional Queensland have strong growth markets – with the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, including the Noosa precinct, up more than 20% in annual terms (the median price for Sunshine Beach has risen 36% in the past year).
This contradicts constant media claims that prices are falling across Australia. 
The situation is even more positive with the rental markets of the capital cities. 
Of the 16 capital city markets (each city has a house market and a unit market), 12 have rents higher than a year ago. Only four markets, those in Sydney and Darwin, have rents in decline, according to the SQM Research figures. The latest numbers from rent.com.au have similar conclusions. 
This reflects vacancy rate figures, which show that most of our major cities have vacancy rates lower than a year ago, with four of them - Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart and Adelaide - having vacancies below 1.8%. The capital city average is a little above 2%. 
Equally, the ongoing rise in residential land prices in our major cities receives little coverage in mainstream media. If it’s not negative, they’re not interested. 
Research shows that most households with mortgages are comfortably handling their repayments. There’s positive news on affordability from our biggest cities. There are growing signs that banks are moving to make borrowing easier. 
If journalists had a different mindset, they could be writing upbeat articles – rather than afflicting consumers with relentless negativity designed to generate clickbait headlines.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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