Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Hobart and Tasmania are national leaders on price growth – although analysis of the latest sales activity data suggests the market has passed its peak after two years of strong growth.
In terms of annual price growth, Tasmania remains the undisputed champion of Australia. Nine out of ten locations across the state have increased their median prices in the past year – and many of them have recorded double-digit growth.
Hotspotting has analysed house price data for 76 suburbs and towns in Tasmania: 69 of them (91%) have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. Of the 69 house markets with price growth, 56 have increased by more than 5%, including 35 which have risen 10% or more.
Only 9% of Tasmanian house markets have experienced decreases in median prices – and only one location has dropped by more than 5%.
In the Hobart metropolitan area, the suburbs of Austins Ferry, Chigwell, Gagebrok and Risdon Vale have all increased between 20% and 25% in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, price uplift has been led by East Launceston (17%), Newnham (12%), South Launceston (16%), Summerhill (12%) and West Launceston (12%). 
In other parts of regional Tasmania, Scottsdale and Upper Burnie have both recorded 15% rises in their median house prices.
There are also examples of exceptional growth in unit markets, where 81% of locations have rising prices.
Growth markets for apartments in Hobart include Bellerive (16%), Claremont (19%), Glenorchy (16%), New Town (18%) and West Moonah (20%) – but the highly-rated suburb of Lindisfarne is the standout, with its median apartment price rising 32% to $445,000, based on 45 sales in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, there have been 25-26% rises in median unit prices in Newnham and Prospect Vale.
Strong though those results are, they are a little less spectacular than our findings three months ago. In that previous report we said: “In Hobart, we can find no suburbs with falling prices and none with minor growth. All have increased by more than 5% in the past 12 months – and 80% of them are up at least 10%. A key feature is most have recorded rises in the latest quarter, which indicates prices are still growing.”
So the current data represents a strong result, indeed the strongest anywhere in Australia, but not as strong as three months ago. This confirms our overall conclusion that markets in Hobart and Tasmania have passed the peak in their cycles and are gradually winding down.
The strongest evidence of this comes from our analysis of quarterly sales activity. We have classified 16 locations as rising markets, the lowest number in any quarter since late in 2016. 
The rise of markets in Hobart, Launceston and other parts of Tasmania began with a steady uplift in sales activity early in 2017 and we have seen strong sales activity since then, leading to nation-leading price growth.
But now sales volumes are subsiding and the number of plateau markets across the state is the highest since we began our quarterly surveys five years ago. Indeed, the number of plateau markets in Tasmania, quarter-by-quarter in the past two years, has been 17, 30, 39, 39, 40, 43, 46 and 54 – a clear pattern showing the increase in the number of locations where sales activity has passed its peak.
There are still suburbs with growth markets (measured by sales volumes) in both Hobart and Launceston. In the Hobart metropolitan area, suburbs that still have growth momentum include Berriedale, Bridgewater, Rokeby, Sorell, Old Beach, Margate and Howrah.
In Launceston, the suburbs that still have forward momentum include Mowbray, Prospect and Newnham.
Elsewhere in the state, growth markets include Cygnet in the Huon Valley south of Hobart, George Town in the north of the state near Launceston, Longford in the Northern Midlands, and Smithton in the Circular Head LGA in the far north-west.
While all the recent evidence suggests Hobart and Tasmania are gradually winding down from the peak of the cycle, the key question is whether recent positive events at a national level (election result, APRA changes, lower interest rates, tax cuts, etc) will re-ignite the state’s mini-boom.
We’ll know more three months from now.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Tasmania passes property market peak after two years of growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
The key question for Hotspotting in putting together our reports in the current climate is this: among the locations that have strong long-term fundamentals supporting price growth, which ones are best set-up to withstand the forces of the Covid-19 shutdown?
We’re searching for places which have the credentials to do well in the short-term, in dealing with the impacts of virus crisis, as well as having the features that drive long-term growth.
As I see it, the key factors are:
1. The strength of the market pre-coronavirus
2. The level of vacancies going into the virus shutdown period
3. The make-up of the local economy and in particular where most of the jobs exist
4. The key components of population growth in that location
5. The level of spending on infrastructure
All of those elements are important, but perhaps the most important one in the short-term is the make-up of the local economy and which sectors provide the bulk of the jobs.
Let me give you an example: Albury-Wodonga, which straddles the border between NSW and Victoria, has one of strongest economies anywhere in regional Australia, it offers wonderful affordability and high rental yields – and, in the past 12 months, there’s been some pretty good price growth there.
But the key factor about Albury-Wodonga right now is where most of its employment exists.
The four biggest sectors that provide the most jobs in this city are: 1 hospitals and medical services; 2 supermarkets and food stores; 3 the military; and 4 aged care.
I can’t imagine a better situation in terms of sectors likely to be hiring rather than firing in the current climate than those.
So, right now, amid all the issues afflicting Australia because of the coronavirus, Albury-Wodonga is performing well in its economy and its property market.
Overall, what we know to be true is that regional Australia is much less impacted by the virus shutdown, generally speaking, than the major cities.
Clearly, regional cities where the economy is largely dependent on tourism will suffer. But most of the regional centres that interest us are not in that situation.
Most of the regional centres that are grabbing our attention have economies based on sectors that are doing well in the current situation, or are likely to do well as we exit the lockdown phase and head back towards normal - sectors like agriculture, viticulture and resources &amp; energy.
Among the capital cities, Adelaide property market is particularly well placed to emerge from the shutdown with prospects for growth.
Coming into the virus crisis, Adelaide was one of the leading capital city markets in the nation with the best prospects for growth.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the Price Predictor Index ranked Adelaide No.1 among the state and territory capital cities for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, out-ranking both Melbourne and Sydney.
Adelaide is one of the nation’s most consistent property markets. It always delivers steady demand, underpinned by a solid local economy and helped by the exceptional value for money offered by its housing market.
Adelaide also had a very low vacancy rate heading into the shutdown period: an overall vacancy rate below 1% which means the city’s rental market is well-placed to absorb the extra rental stock coming into the market because of the impact of the virus shutdown.
The latest figures, to the beginning of April, show that even with the recent influx of new properties seeking tenants, its vacancy rate is still just 1.2% (the lowest among the capitals, equal with Canberra).
The city’s economy is in a strong position to recover well from the shutdown period.
Adelaide is the high-tech innovation capital of Australia and South Australia leads the nation in the production of alternative energy. It has been transitioning strongly from old-style manufacturing to the production of modern technology products.
One of the likely outcomes from the virus crisis is a revival of manufacturing in Australia and Adelaide is well-placed to benefit from that.
Adelaide also has strong sectors in education and medical services.
It has a state government which has been spending significant amounts on infrastructure – and has announced plans to fast-track shovel-ready infrastructure projects to lead the economic recovery on the other side of the shutdown period.
Overall, I see Adelaide as being one of the best capital cities in the nation for real estate investment with good prospects for future growth, as well as above-average rental yields.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide property market to emerge strong from COVID-19 shutdown: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The mini-boom in Hobart and Tasmania is well past its peak in terms of buyer demand, but the state remains the nation’s top performer on price growth in the past year. 
The quarter-by-quarter analysis of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting shows there are few growth markets remaining in Tasmania and we are now seeing the emergence of declining markets for the first time.
Our past three quarterly surveys of sales activity have found that the number of locations with growth momentum has fallen from 23 to 16 to 9. 
The peak of the up-cycle in Tasmania, measured by sales activity, was late in 2017 and there has been a gradual wind-down in activity since then.
But now Tasmania has as many locations classified as declining markets (9) as there are rising markets.
Prices remain buoyant however, although a little less so than three months ago. Our location-by-location analysis of prices shows that 86% of Tasmanian locations have median prices higher than a year ago.
This is down from 91% three months ago, but remains easily the best outcome in the nation. Most of the locations with rising prices have recorded annual growth above 5% and indeed most have had double-digit increases. 
There are only 12 locations across the state of Tasmania with median prices lower than a year ago.
Launceston is the state’s strongest market: it still has three suburbs classified as rising markets – Mowbray, Newnham and South Launceston. Quarterly sales in Mowbray have been 21-23-29-34 and its median price is up 7% to $260,000.
There are 13 suburbs with steady sales performance (suburbs notable for their consistent sales performance include Youngtown, Riverside and Newstead) and none classified as declining markets. 
Suburbs with good annual growth in their median house prices include Newnham (8%), Newstead (11%), Ravenswood (13%) and several others which are up 6-7%.
In the suburb of Launceston, the median apartment price has risen 24% to $400,000 in the past year.
There are still some rising suburbs throughout the Hobert metro area – including Howrah, Margate, Rokeby and Sorell.
Howrah features in our National Top 50 list of Supercharged Suburbs in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index, with quarterly sales of 41-46-50-52-58. Its median house price is up 8% to $535,000 and its median apartment price has risen 12% to $415,000 in the past 12 months.
Generally, the Hobart metro area remains steady and suburbs like Moonah and West Hobart make our National Top 50 list of Consistent Suburbs in The Price Predictor Index.
Most locations have median prices well up on the levels of 12 months earlier. Locations with strong annual price growth include Austins Ferry (17%), Lauderdale (21%), Oakdowns (22%), Risdon Vale (18%) and Warrane (15%).
But the Hobart area now has locations classified as declining markets, including Chigwell, Gagebrook and Midway Point.
There are struggling markets elsewhere in the state, notably the West Coast where Queenstown, Zeehan and Rosebery remain classified as declining or danger markets. There’s also mounting evidence of decline in the Burnie market.
At the other end of the scale, regional towns with big price rises include Huonville (15%), Perth (14%), Smithton (23%), East Devonport (16%), Longford (12%) and George Town (12%).
In the Dorset LGA, both Scottsdale (17%) and Bridport (15%) have had strong growth in their median prices. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Tasmania real estate past its peak, but still Australia's top performer: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers would be better informed if media could let go of its obsession with median price movements and auction outcomes in the two biggest cities as the barometer of all things real estate.
The state of the nation, in terms of housing markets, is too often seen through the prism of the property price indexes and clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne.
Not only does this ignore the different scenarios occurring in other important markets, but it tells us very little that’s useful.
Investors essentially want to know where prices are going to move before they move. A report telling consumers how much prices moved in the recent past simply tells consumers where they should  have bought a year ago.
Equally a report that Sydney’s clearance rate is regularly topping 70% doesn’t tell us where in Sydney people should be buying and it’s useless information if you’re interested in some other part of the country.
There are much more useful barometers that actually provide clues about where prices might rise before they do so. Sales volumes often provide evidence about where prices are likely to move, up or down, and that’s why I put so much time and effort into publishing my Price Predictor Index every quarter.
Trends in the rental market are also a useful indicator of what might happen with prices. There’s ample research that shows that rents often rise for a period before prices start to react. And rents rise because vacancies are low. We saw that scenario play out in Sydney (before the recent correction) and also in Hobart where prices remain strong, with vacancies the lowest in capital city Australia.
I note that Simon Pressley of Propertyology, a researcher whose work deserves respect and attention, has recently reported on the importance of vacancy rates as an indicator of future price trends. I certainly agree with Pressley that low vacancies and strong rentals can be a precursor to a period of price growth.
With that in mind, I’m always interested in precincts where vacancies are super tight, particularly when those places have other solid credentials.
And you have look beyond the generalised figures published in mainstream media. Sydney might have a vacancy rate around 3.5%, but there are local precincts with tight rental markets. Postcode 2168 in the Liverpool LGA has a vacancy rate of just 1.8% and includes a range of suburbs where affordable (by Sydney standards) suburbs are attracting first-home buyers and others. 
Melbourne, where markets are on the boil again, has many local precincts where rental markets are very tight. In the Moreland LGA, most postcodes have vacancy rates well under 2%. The Brunswick West postcode is currently 1.2%, according to SQM Research, while the postcode covering Coburg and Coburg North is 1.3%.
These are real estate locations with good bones and it’s worth noting that during the recent period when Melbourne prices generally were falling, many of the apartment markets throughout the Moreland LGA continued to achieve growth in their median prices – and the tight rental market has kept yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, which is above average for Melbourne.
Rental markets are even tighter in nearby Darebin – most postcodes have vacancy rates below 1.5%. The Northcote postcode is 1% and the Thornbury postcode is 0.9%. In Preston, the vacancy rate is 1.3%, the median price for apartments has risen in the past year, and the median rental yield is 4.6%.
As Melbourne generally recovers from the post-boom correction, locations like these are going to be strong performers.
One reason that Ballarat has been delivering such strong price growth in recent years is the strength of its rental market. Vacancies have been under 3% for the past five years and currently average around 1.5%. Many suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The revival of many regional Queensland markets has been heralded by big improvements in their rental markets. Mackay provides a striking example. When the resources investment boom evaporated, vacancies rose in Mackay and prices inevitably fell. But now vacancies are around 1.5%, rental yields of 5.5%, 6% and higher are available, and prices are now responding.
There are numerous examples across the nation – but you’re not going to find out about them by reading our metropolitan newspapers.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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How to find real estate locations with good bones: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Melbourne has negotiated the difficult post-boom correction phase and is now clearly in recovery mode.
The turn-around in overall fortunes in the Melbourne metropolitan area since the middle of 2019 has been characterised by a noticeable improvement in auction clearance rates and recent evidence of a revival in price growth.
Many Melbourne suburbs still have median house prices below the levels of 12 months ago, but in the most recent quarter their medians have risen.
And the latest generalised data for Melbourne suggests the city overall now has pricing levels higher than a year ago. SQM Research has Melbourne houses up 2% in annual terms, while CoreLogic reports a rise of about 1%. Both those sources report solid rises in latest month, both for houses and for apartments.
A standout feature has been the resilience of suburban unit markets in 2019: many Melbourne suburbs have recorded substantial decreases in their median house prices but rises in their median apartment prices.
The official statistics show that first-home buyers overall are more active now than at any time in the past eight years - and many young adults opt for the apartment lifestyle, rather than a house on land - and not just because it’s cheaper.
So demand for affordable apartments stayed relatively strong in 2019 at a time when demand for houses was weak. 
The price differential - in many Melbourne suburbs the median price for apartments is roughly half that for houses - has been a factor.
But demographic factors have also been influential. Not only do many young adults prefer apartments, but downsizing retirees are buying units and townhouses, while migrants flooding into Melbourne are often coming from cultures where attached dwellings are the norm.
For all these reasons, many apartments markets in suburban Melbourne have remained solid during the post-boom correction - and look poised for further growth.
At the same time, there has been strong demand for houses in good suburbs, but listings have been low.  Despite the onset of Spring and the increasingly positive market news in mainstream media, vendors have been strangely reluctant to come to the party. The downturn in the construction of new dwellings has been an additional factor.
The imbalance between supply and demand has been a factor in lifting clearance rates and median prices - and many forecasters are tipping strong performance in 2020.
SQM Research’s Louis Christopher in his Boom and Bust report, is forecasting price growth of up to 15% for Melbourne in 2020. SQM’s growth predictions for 2020 are modelled on different scenarios of what might occur over the next 12 months, based on changing market fundamentals and controls.
The base scenario – which would keep the cash rate unchanged at current lows of 0.75%, no intervention from banking regulator APRA, a recovering economy and a healthy Australian dollar – sees property prices rise 7% to 11% nationally through 2020.
But Melbourne is expected to exceed this with price growth of 14-15%, taking property values to new highs.
Other forecasters, including Commonwealth Bank and HSBC, are also tipping significant growth in major Australian cities in 2020, with Melbourne at the high end of the growth list.
In making selections for Hotspotting’s new edition of Top 5 Melbourne Hotspots, I have highlighted areas that have shown resilience during the downturn, have offerings that are affordable to mainstream buyers and have solid credentials for long-term, sustainable price growth.
The Darebin LGA precinct provides a good example: it has suburbs that continue to evolve through gentrification in good locations, with attractive proximity to the CBD and other big employment nodes.
Houses are relatively affordable and apartments particularly so. Vacancies are very low, as rental demand is consistently strong, and long-term capital growth rates are good. Yields are above average for Melbourne.
Similar arguments could be made for the Moreland and Moonee Valley municipalities which also feature in the new edition of our Melbourne report.
Brimbank and Wyndham make up the top five.
Overall, it’s a good time to be considering real estate investment in Melbourne and we expect 2020 to be a vibrant year for markets in the Victorian capital.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Melbourne's Darebin in hotspot recovery mode: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s a one-step guide for identifying a charlatan in the real estate commentary space. Those who claim markets are rising because we have record low interest rates have just identified themselves as pretenders.
With that simple process, we’ve eliminated all the chattering economists in the land and a large chunk of the electronic media glitterati who don’t allow a lack of knowledge get in the way of strong opinions.
They’re the same people who talk about Australian real estate as a single market – e.g. “Australian property prices will rise 5% this year”. This is a red flashing light that the talking head is an idiot. Even discussing one city as a single market is foolhardy (refer last week’s column about Sydney, which highlighted the different scenarios currently in play).
Here’s what passes for analysis with most of these counterfeit commentators: if Event A coincided with Event B, then Event A must have caused Event B – obviously. It’s the first and last refuge of people who know little about real estate dynamics and want to pretend they have something to say.
The problem is that Events A and B also coincided with Events C, D, E, F and G.
The thing about interest rates is that they’ve been at record lows for years. The only recent change is that they’ve gone even lower. They were super low when Sydney and Melbourne were having their big boom, so naturally that must have been the cause, according to those who subscribe to the Event A/Event B theory.
But those super low interest rates failed to cause booms in Brisbane, Adelaide or Canberra, nor in Perth or Darwin which both were going backwards steadily while the Big 2 were surging. Most of regional Australia also failed to boom, although Hobart and regional Tasmania eventually got on board with what I regard as a mini-boom.
So clearly some other forces must have been in play. That’s where Events C, D, E, F and G become relevant. More on that later.
The other thing about the interest rates theory is that it contradicts the lessons of the past. Those who think that “low interest rates = real estate boom” and “rising interest rates = real estate bust” haven’t been students of history.
Genuine nationwide property booms are extremely rare in Australia. ABS data on annual house price growth in Australia’s biggest cities show that, since 1970, there have been only four years in which all the major markets boomed at the same time. Only four years out of the last 50 – two years late in the 1980s and two years in the early part of this century.
During the other 46 years different scenarios have been playing out in different locations, all dictated by local conditions, oblivious to the level of interest rates and other big picture items.
During those two periods when we had national property booms, the late 1980s and the early 2000s, we had high interest rates – much higher than they are today. They kept going higher and the booms kept rolling on. Mortgage rates got as high as 17% before the profligate Eighties finally collapsed.
And it all makes perfect sense. The economy was raging, consumers were confident and spending big, and rates were rising to try to dampen things down. That’s when people are most likely to splurge on real estate.
Interest rates are low now because the national economy is generally rather beige and consumers aren’t that bullish. The exceptions have been Sydney and Melbourne, where the local economies have outperformed the national scenario, boosted by strong population growth and big infrastructure spending.
In trying to understand why markets do what they do, you have to consider both the macro and the micro factors, but paying particular attention to the micro ones.
Here are the macro factors that rolled out one by one to change the general situation from negative 12 months ago to positive now:
1. The Federal Election was decided.
2. The week following the Election, APRA announced relaxations of its lending guidelines.
3. The re-elected Federal Government announced tax cuts.
4. The RBA brought on a series of reductions to the official interest rates.
5. Mainstream media stopped obsessing on negatives and became significantly more upbeat.
6. Consumer sentiment towards real estate started to rise.
7. Buyers started to become active, but supply remained low.
8. Auction clearance rates started to improve.
9. Prices started to react in the big cities.
10. Forecasters published upbeat predictions for 2020 outcomes.
11. The ABS published loans data that showed improvement.
12. Consumer sentiment towards real estate improved further.
13. The federal scheme to boost FHBs clicked in.
14. Etc etc etc.
That’s the big picture. The national climate underpinning real estate improved, with interest rate cuts just one small factor- and overall not that consequential. Labor losing the un-losable Federal Election was probably the biggest one.
But the reality is that the things that matter the most happen at a micro level. Real estate markets are highly individual and arise out of local economies. That explains why Perth and Darwin have been going backwards while Sydney and Melbourne have been booming (and then busting and then recovering), amid stagnation in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and elsewhere.
Local economic events are paramount. Look at Regional Victoria. While Melbourne was descending in 2018 and the first half of 2019, many regional centres in Victoria were experiencing double-digit annual growth in their house prices. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Warragul, Pakenham, Echuca, Mildura, Benalla and many others experienced strong markets with prices rising.
Regional Victoria is one of the national leaders on important factors like economic performance, population growth, low unemployment and infrastructure spending. Each individual regional centre has its own local dynamics, which provide reasons why local markets will rise or fall.
All of this is good news for property investors, because it means that there are always growth markets to be found, somewhere in Australia.
When people ask “Is this a good time to buy real estate?”, they’re asking the wrong question. A much smarter question would be “Where is it a good time to buy real estate?”
Because in this large and diverse nation, it’s always a good time to buy – somewhere.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Housing markets aren't just rising because of record low interest rates:  Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers. 
My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.
Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?
Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.
Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?
I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.
Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?
Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.
Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?
I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.
Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?
If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.
Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?
I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities. 
Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.
Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.
Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.  This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.  If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.
I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.
What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?
I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.
Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?
It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis. 
Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?
That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.
What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?
One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).
My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.  What’s your advice on selling now. 
No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender. 
If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?
A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers often fixate on the idea that individual suburbs will do better than their neighbours. I’m constantly asked for my opinion of one suburb or another, on the basis that the target location has special qualities and it will out-perform others.
The reality is that it’s rare for one suburb to star while its neighbours under-perform. Market performance tends to happen in clusters, with a group of suburbs with similar qualities being influenced by the same factors, such as a major new piece of infrastructure.
So at Hotspotting we tend to think in terms of Local Government Areas. Our quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index focus primarily on municipalities, looking for patterns of growth within clusters of suburbs.
The list below, my estimation of the leading LGAs in the nation for rising buyer demand, may surprise because of the number of precincts within Adelaide that feature – but if you study the numbers and the trends, it’s evident that Adelaide is the most consistent of markets and has more momentum that other capital cities.
It has a number of precincts with above-average price growth and the potential for future strong performance.
Here, then, is my national top 10 municipalities in terms of growth momentum (listed in alphabetical order):-
Belconnen ACT 
I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in Australia, with the nation’s highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment. It is challenging Victoria for the No.1 ranking on population growth, it has low vacancies and it often leads on rental growth. The Belconnen District is Canberra’s No.1 jurisdiction for suburbs with rising sales activity. This precinct has a number of affordable suburbs, vacancies are well below 1%, rental yields are solid and some suburbs have grown their median prices 6-7% in the past 12 months. 
Bendigo VIC 
Bendigo is now the leading market in Victoria in terms of the number of suburbs with rising demand, having overtaken other strong markets like Geelong and Ballarat. It’s attracting both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne, chasing affordability and/or better rental yields in a growth centre. Many Bendigo suburbs have median prices in the $300,000s, emphasising the city’s affordability. Bendigo is rising because of its own inherent strengths - including a strong and diverse economy - and its strong links to Melbourne. 
Brisbane North QLD 
The Brisbane North precinct (the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area) is the most active part of the Brisbane market, which is poised for stronger growth. This middle-ring area has 10 suburbs with rising sales demand, including Alderley where quarterly sales have been 28-37-48-50-52 in the past year or so: its median prices have risen 5% for houses and 22% for units. Other growth suburbs include Boondall, Chermside West, Everton Park, Kedron, McDowall, Sandgate, Stafford, Stafford Heights and Wavell Heights. These are all middle-market areas with median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. 
Charles Sturt SA 
The Charles Sturt LGA extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beaches and includes a range of good suburbs, including eight where sales activity is rising steadily. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum. Good price growth is happening in this area, including Henley Beach South (median house price up 15% to $985,000). 
Joondalup WA 
The Joondalup LGA continues to be a stand-out for its steadiness and resilience against the Perth downturn and is poised to lead the city’s market recovery. It now has eight suburbs with rising sales momentum, which makes it No.1 in Perth and among the best of the nation’s LGAs. The suburbs of this LGA are based around the Joondalup CBD, which is a centre for infrastructure and services for Perth’s north. Growth markets include Burns Beach, Duncraig, Edgewater, Greenwood, Joondalup, Mullaloo and Padbury, many of which offer good affordability. 
Marion SA 
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout market. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens. Warradale makes our National Top 50 list of rising suburbs, with quarterly sales of 30-36-41: its median house price of $595,000 is typical of the Marion LGA’s middle-ring affordability. 
Melville WA 
The City of Melville in Perth’s inner south is one of the precincts leading the market fightback in the WA capital. It has seven growth markets and seven consistent performers. Suburbs with rising sales demand include Attadale, Bull Creek, Kardinya, Leeming, Mt Pleasant and Palmyra - some of which are million-dollar suburbs but most are middle-market areas. The star is Willagee, which makes our National Top 50 list with quarterly sales of 25-39-46-51 - and the latest quarter also shows sign of growth in the median house price ($520,000). 
Port Adelaide Enfield SA 
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA emerged in 2018 as an up-and-coming market in the SA capital - and continues to be one of the busiest precincts in Adelaide. Our latest survey reveals seven suburbs with rising activity, including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park. Dernancourt features in our National Top 50 list. This precinct is being boosted by major local events, including the massive program of building vessels for the Australian Navy and ongoing development around the port. The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved here; and a new rail spur is proposed to link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD. 
Onkaparinga SA 
As we have observed many times, Onkaparinga always features prominently in our analysis of the Adelaide market. It currently has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54-63-67-70), which features in our National Top 50 list of supercharged suburbs. Other growth markets include Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford. This LGA ticks a lot of boxes for investors: it has lifestyle, affordability, improved transport links, economic growth drivers, population growth and proximity to major jobs nodes. 
Sunshine Coast QLD 
The Sunshine Coast continues to be the strongest of the Queensland markets, both in terms of rising sales activity and price growth. It’s rising while the more high-profile Gold Coast market is falling. The Sunshine Coast has 10 suburbs with rising buyer demand and another 13 have consistent sales activity. Landsborough and Little Mountain feature on our National Top 50 list. Over 60% of Regional Queensland markets have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the higher growth markets, 21 have increased by more than 10%, and 10 of those 21 locations are Sunshine Coast suburbs, led by Eumundi (28%), Sunshine Beach (15%), Twin Waters (15%) and Wurtulla (15%). 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australia's top 10 property price growth areas in 2019: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who reads my reports will know I’m finding many of the best markets across the nation in Regional Australia.
Most of the strongest markets for sales activity and price growth in the past two years have been found outside the capital cities and the regional areas of Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland continue to present large numbers of growth numbers.
I tell seminar audiences around Australia this is a good thing for investors, because the regions have lower prices and higher rental yields. And, if you choose your locations well, you’re well-placed for good capital growth as well.
It’s a message that most Australians haven’t been getting, because the major research firms focus primarily on the capital cities and major media obsesses over the markets in Melbourne and Sydney.
As I told seminar audiences in Mackay recently, Central Queensland cities will never feature in national media unless there’s a cyclone or flood. Mackay, in fact, is a growth market with low vacancies, strong rentals and rising prices, boosted by positive events in the local economy.
But gradually, it seems, Australia is waking up to the opportunities presented by markets in Regional Australia. 
Agency network PRDnationwide published an August report which predicted that regional centres are set to outperform capital cities over the next six months as affordable prices and higher returns lure buyers.
It said regional areas generally had fared better than metropolitan markets recently and that performance would continue over the second half of the year.
PRDnationwide’s national research manager Asti Mardiasmo said: “Regional areas are more insulated than bigger cities due to the increased infrastructure developments, cheaper house prices and big businesses moving their head offices to regional areas,” Mardiasmo said.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which has identified rising sales activity and good price growth in many of the regional markets in the major eastern states, as well as Tasmania and Western Australia.
The monthly reports of national valuation firm Herron Todd White have also recorded uplift in many of the nation’s regional markets. 
Its latest National Property Clock suggests that markets are rising or recovering in regional centres such as Tamworth, Dubbo, Albury and Bathurst in NSW; Townsville, Mackay, Cairns, Gladstone, the Sunshine Coast, Hervey Bay and Emerald in Queensland; Karratha and Port Hedland in WA; Shepparton and Wodonga in Victoria; and Launceston in Tasmania.
Markets at the bottom of the cycle ahead of recovery include Alice Springs, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
Hotspotting would add a number of key regional cities to the list of strong markets, including Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, and Orange, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, Queanbeyan, the Hunter Valley and the Tweed region in NSW.
In the Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index, 30 of the National Top 50 Super-charged Suburbs list were regional locations.
Brisbane-based researcher Propertyology published an analysis of population trends across the nation and suggested the areas where property markets benefited the most from interstate and intrastate migration were regional cities like the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Geelong.
A recent report by the Regional Australia Institute, based on a research project by the University of South Australia and Southern Cross University, urged Australians to consider the regions as an alternative to the major cities - it says many regional towns offer jobs, affordable housing, lifestyle and scope for economic growth, as well as less congestion and a lower cost of living.
The university research project compared wages, employment, congestion and house prices among outer suburban and metropolitan areas, and the regions.
The study found that while wages might be less in the regions compared to cities, job prospects are often at least as good and the cost of living is lower than the big cities. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australian investors waking up to regional property market opportunities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Rental trends are an important barometer of our major markets largely overlooked by mainstream media.
Media regards changes in median prices and auction clearance rates in the big cities as the measures worth considering, but at Hotspotting we think movements in rents are equally important. They reveal a lot about the state of individual markets and they can serve as a precursor to what’s likely to happen with prices.
History shows that an uplift in prices is often preceded by tight vacancies and strong rises in rentals. This occurred in Sydney in 2011 and 2012, ahead of the start of the price boom in 2013.
Hobart, which has had a mini-boom in the past two years, first experienced a sharp decrease in residential vacancies and significant increases in rentals.
Hobart still has the tightest vacancies in capital city Australia (well under 1%) and it continues to lead on rent increases. We have analysed new data from the two best sources on rental statistics, SQM Research and Domain, and both record strong annual rises for house rents (7.2% SQM and 9.8% Domain) in Hobart and even bigger increases for unit rents (11.6% and 12.9%).
Perth is another standout. A year ago the vacancy rate for the WA capital was 4% but it has reduced steadily over the past 12 months and is now below 3%. Rents have responded, with houses up 4.5% (SQM) or 5.7% (Domain), and units up 4.9% (SQM) and 3.3% (Domain).
If history repeats, this dramatic improvement in the rental market will be followed by uplift in prices, for the first time in five years (the latest SQM data suggests price trends are starting to improve in Perth).
Adelaide too is producing solid rental growth. Both sources have house rents up about 2.6% in annual terms, and apartment rents rising around 3.3%. Adelaide vacancies are hovering around 1%.
Brisbane, where vacancies have recently dropped below the 3% benchmark after several years of over-supply in apartment markets, is now producing moderate rental growth for both houses and apartments.
Both sources agree that Canberra is producing solid growth in rents for apartments, up more than 4%, but Domain records no growth for house rents, while SQM says Canberra house rents have dropped about 2% in the past year. Canberra vacancies are trending higher but remain tight at 1.2%, according to SQM.
Melbourne, where vacancies are generally low, has delivered minor growth in apartment rents, while house rents are largely unchanged.
The two cities with the highest vacancies, Sydney and Darwin, are the only state and territory capitals where rents are significantly down.
In Sydney, where vacancies are trending higher, houses rents are down about 5% in annual terms, while apartment rents have fallen around 4%.
Darwin is showing signs of recovery with rents for houses, with vacancies better in the past year. But apartment rents have dropped 5%, according to both research sources.
Overall, the situation is positive for vacancies and for rents. Sydney is the notable exception.
The improvement in the rental situation for Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane suggests price growth is likely in the near future - especially when considered alongside other factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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