The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

There were two pieces of positive news in the past week which demonstrate the value to the nation and its citizens of growth in the property market.

One came from research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia which shows that the median house price for the Australian capital cities has risen from $160,000 in 1996 to $825,000 today.

The Real Estate Institute of Australia says the median house price has risen more than 400% in the past 25 years. 

It sounds extraordinary – but, to put it in perspective, it equates to an average annual increase of 6.6% per year. Healthy, and certainly ahead of inflation and wages growth, but not monumental.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89516]

This is despite fairly muted growth since 2016. The data shows that over the past five years, the median house price in the capital cities grew 25%, from $683,000 to $825,000, while “other dwellings” rose by 10% to $600,000.

The other item of note came from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It says that a booming property market helped add half a trillion dollars to Australia’s household wealth in the December Quarter, taking the total to just over $12 trillion.

The nation recorded its biggest gain in quarterly wealth since 2009 despite COVID-19 concerns and employment fears over the end to JobKeeper.

According to the ABS, total household wealth increased 4.3%, or $502 billion, in the last three months of 2020, marking the highest quarterly growth rate since the December Quarter of 2009.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27427]

The property market was the key driver. During the December Quarter, residential assets grew by $246 billion, or 3.5%, the biggest rise since the December Quarter of 2016. That came on top of a $200 billion rise in house values for the September Quarter.

ABS head of finance and wealth Katherine Keenan says: “The growth in residential assets was seen across both owner-occupier and investor housing in the December Quarter. Owner-occupier housing loans grew 1.9%, the strongest growth in four years, while investor housing loans grew 0.4%, which was the first positive growth in the past two years.”

The housing debt to income ratio decreased from 139.2 to 139 over the quarter, as growth in income exceeded growth in housing debt. The ratio has fallen for the past four quarters.

This is mostly good news for nation. I’m telling you this because you won’t hear it from mainstream media. What you will hear is that it’s a crisis. Indeed, several crises. An affordability crisis, a debt crisis and a social crisis. 

[smartcode_project:default project_id=25382]

But I see mostly positives. The key factors here are that this gives confidence to most Australians, encouraging them to spend, which benefits the economy and creates jobs, and it helps people establish the financial base to fund their retirement.

Successive federal governments for the past 20 years or so have encouraged Australians to invest to provide for their retirement years, placing less reliance on the public purse. 

For many Australians, real estate is the option of choice because they feel they understand it and they see it as a safe and solid option for growth.

The current national property boom is a big step down that path.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The Real Estate Institute of Australia says the median house price has risen more than 400% in the past 25 years

terryryder

Why the growth in the property market is important to Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

Six months ago it was hard to find any suburbs across the Greater Sydney Area with rising buyer demand, but now there are many. It’s been a sharp turnaround – but an uneven one.

Overall, this is the strongest Sydney market I’ve recorded in the five years that I’ve been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends. 

Our Winter 2019 survey pinpointed the bottom of the Sydney trough and our latest survey, now under way, provides strong evidence of the market revival, showing just how much has changed since the middle of last year. 

Locations with rising markets, as measured by sales activity, can be found in 22 municipalities across the Sydney metro area, but the revival is not evenly distributed. The greatest uplift is being felt at the upper end of the market and many suburbs have not yet experienced significant improvement.

The number of suburbs classified as declining markets has dropped a lot but there are still 12 suburbs with deteriorating demand – and another 12 that have that characteristic as well as high vacancies and weak prices, which we therefore classify as danger markets.

There danger markets are all locations where apartments predominate. Seven of them are in the Parramatta LGA, where high levels of new apartments have been built in recent years and vacancies remain in the 5% to 8% range in several cases.

The leading market in the Greater Sydney Area is the Northern Beaches LGA. It has nine suburbs with rising sales activity, plus six others with steady buyer demand. 

Quarterly sales in Newport have been 28-36-53-64, while Freshwater and Frenchs Forest are stand-outs for maintaining highly consistently sales levels throughout the post-boom correction phase and now in the recovery.

The Inner West LGA is also performing well, with six growth suburbs and nine others with consistent buyer demand. Quarterly sales in Annandale have been 17-32-36-45-64, while Leichardt has been 59-68-77-105, patterns that will likely drive prices higher.

The Sydney City LGA has growth suburbs, but also shows the importance of not generalizing when discussing real estate in a major city. The central city LGA has five suburbs with growing sales activity, 11 with steady markets, three where demand continues to decline and one suburb which we classify as a danger market. All that diversity exists in one municipality. 

Blacktown is the strongest of the outer-ring markets, with five growth suburbs and 11 with steady sales activity. Schofields continues to stand out with rising sales activity – quarterly sales over the past two years have been 64-82-99-105-120-150-196-162.

Other LGAs with three or four growth suburbs include the Hills Shire, Ku-ring-gai, North Sydney and Sutherland municipalities.

This new survey also shows the recovery in the Canterbury-Bankstown area. Six months ago, 12 suburbs in this LGA were rated as declining markets, with sales levels dropping markedly. But now most of these suburbs have been re-classified as plateau markets, as sales levels start to improve. And four suburbs of the Canterbury-Bankstown LGA have shown sufficient revival to be classified as rising markets.

Across Greater Sydney, prices are reacting to the uplift in demand that is generally occurring in many locations, but most suburbs still have median prices below the levels of 12 months ago. This applies to 92% of suburbs for houses and 85% of suburbs for apartments.

But many suburbs have shown increases in the latest quarter. Examples include Mona Vale (median house price down 8% annually but up 2.3% in the latest quarter); Collaroy (down 15% in annual terms but up 9.5% quarter-to-quarter); Bronte (down 9% year-on-year but up 2.6% in the latest quarter); and Killara (down 15% annually but up 3% quarter-to-quarter). 

This is a pattern I expect to see becoming increasingly prevalent as the uplift being led by the more expensive areas spreads more widely across the metro area.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a> twitter.com/hotspotting

PICTURE SOURCE: <a class="external text" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/34120957@N04" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Proimos</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Northern Beaches rising buyer demand drives Greater Sydney to strongest Sydney market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

For the past 3-4 years, many pundits have forecast that “this year” is the year for Brisbane and the city has not delivered. It has chugged along steadily but there’s been little in the way of major uplift.

But now the Brisbane boom is upon us. Hotspotting research for the upcoming Autumn 2021 edition of The Price Predictor Index shows just how strong markets are across the Greater Brisbane Area.

The number of growth markets in the Greater Brisbane Area has quadrupled since mid-2020, creating the strongest market in the six years of our quarterly surveys. The uplift in sales activity in the past six months has been extraordinary.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

Our new survey has identified 124 suburbs with rising sales activity, compared to 56 in the previous survey and just 28 in the mid-2020 survey. This means the number of growth suburbs doubled in six months and then doubled again within three months.

The previous best result in the six years of our quarterly surveys was 80 growth suburbs six years ago at the start of 2015.

At the same time, the number of plateau markets is the lowest ever, while the number of declining or danger markets has dropped from 37 eighteen months ago to just five now (we continue to classify some of the inner-city apartment markets as danger markets, with vacancies still high there).

The northern precincts continue to be market leaders in Brisbane. The Brisbane-north precinct and the Moreton Bay Region jointly have 51 growth suburbs, including 31 in the Moreton Bay region, which is a record to any LGA across Australia in the six years of these surveys.

This means that three-quarters of the ranked suburbs in the Moreton Bay Region have rising sales activity, a circumstance that makes strong price highly likely in 2021.

The Brisbane-north precinct, which has 20 growth suburbs, continues to impress as one of the strongest of the city’s sectors.

But the growth momentum is occurring throughout the Brisbane metropolitan area, with Ipswich City in the far south-west an exception.

Logan City in the far south has 17 growth suburbs, providing further evidence of the gathering recovery of markets in this precinct.

Brisbane-south (13), Brisbane-inner (11), Brisbane-easts (12), Brisbane-west (7) and Redland City (8) all have substantial numbers of suburbs with rising trajectories. But Ipswich City, with only five growth suburbs, has yet to feel the positive momentum being felt elsewhere in the Greater Brisbane Area.

It doesn’t surprise, therefore, that Brisbane markets have been performing well on price growth, with three-quarters of suburbs across the metropolitan area recording uplift in their median house prices in 2020.

In the most recent quarter, 76% of suburbs had some level of price growth.

With inner-city apartment markets still struggling with high vacancy rates, growth has been less prolific among the unit markets: 56% of the suburbs with unit markets have had growth in their median unit prices in the past year.

House price growth has been spread across the Brisbane metropolitan area, but the upper end of the market has been leading.

St Lucia in the popular western suburbs has lifted its median house price 36% to $1,525,000, while Yeronga in the inner southern suburbs has grown 38% to $1,045,000. The sough-after inner city suburb of New Farm has increased 20% to $1,750,000, while Highgate Hill is also up 20% to $1,200,000. And the most expensive of the eastern bayside suburbs, Manly, has increased 20% to $945,000.

The housing market in inner Brisbane, in contrast to the apartment market, is generally travelling well. In addition to New Farm and Highgate Hill, West End is up 15%, Woolloongabba 10%, Bardon 8% and Coorparoo 7%.

The western suburbs are doing well, led by St Lucia (36%), Fig Tree Pocket (up 18%), Sherwood (13%) and Toowong (12%). All have median prices above $1 million.

The northern suburbs also are out-performing. Inner northern suburbs with median prices above $1 million are growing, including Grange (14%), Ashgrove (13%), Ascot (8%) and Clayfield (9%).

Further north in the middle-ring suburbs, growth suburbs include Nundah (15%), Banyo (12%), Chermside (14%) and Sandgate (11%), while others like Chermside West, Kedron and McDowall have grown 8-9%. These are places with median house prices in the $600,000 to $800,000 range.

The equivalent suburbs in the south are also displaying solid growth, headed by Holland Park (12%), Tarragindi (10%) and Upper Mount Gravatt (11%). Several others are up 8-9%.

Several outer-ring precincts are also doing well. In the Moreton Bay region in the far north, growth suburbs include Eatons Hill (13%), Caboolture South (8%), Beachmere (9%) and Bellara (7%) – mostly locations with median house prices under $500,000. Given the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, we expect price growth to accelerate in this area.

In Logan City in the far south, Underwood is up 12% to $615,000, while suburbs with medians in the $400,000s and $500,000s are showing solid uplift in the 7-8% range, including Daisy Hill, Loganholme, Shailer Park and Waterford.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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For the past 3-4 years, many pundits have forecast that “this year” is the year for Brisbane and the city has not delivered



A Brisbane real estate boom, at last: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Here’s how you spot a real estate charlatan, someone who likes to present themselves as a real estate expert but who in reality knows nothing worth hearing …

- They speak of Australia as a single property market; and/or

- They attribute price growth to “record low interest rates”

Mostly these pretenders are economists. I would remind you of a much-quoted definition of an economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow why their predictions yesterday didn’t come true today.

We have learnt over the years, but particularly in 2020, that the bigger the name and the media profile, the worse they are at analysing residential real estate and forecasting outcomes.

Cast your minds back to the predictions in March/April 2020 from senior economists employed by the major banks, big institutions like AMP and even those working for specialist real estate research entities. And then again later in the year when the so-called September Cliff was proclaimed an impending disaster.

There was a chorus of predictions of a long recession, with double-digit unemployment and real estate values collapsing. How spectacularly wrong they were. Only the specialist property analysts got it right.

But the appalling track record of economists with real estate analysis stretches back years and includes the alarmist predictions about property prices in the wake of the GFC – also proven to be spectacularly wrong. 

It’s remarkable that media continues to give these charlatans airplay. Credibility, it seems, is optional, so long as you have “economist” in your title.

So the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020 and most of them are now forecasting big price growth this year. You will note that what they are predicting is already happening, highlighting another characteristic of this bloated and overblown profession: predicting the recent past.

And how do they explain the gathering boom? Record low interest rates!

God help us. The lack of expertise among the talking heads who clutter up the airways with their simplistic analysis is quite breathtaking.

As we all know, we’ve had ultra-low interest rates for years. Very little has changed in that regard to explain the recent uplift in sales activity. When Sydney and Melbourne were having their real estate boom from 2013 to 2017-ish, economists generally explained the price rises with “record low interest rates”. They had no response to the obvious question at the time: how come prices in Perth and Darwin were falling, while Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide were stagnating?

The “low interest rates = property boom” theory also fails to explain why the last two genuine nationwide property booms, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, both occurred during periods of very high and rising interest rates.

My view, strongly, is that record low interest rates do not explain what’s happening in real estate across most of Australia.

The growth is being fueled by multiple factors, including …

- A stronger-than-expected economy

- Lower-than-predicted unemployment

- State and federal stimulus measures

- The build-up of savings during the pandemic period

- People in lockdown reviewing their life choices

- Ultra-low vacancies, putting upward pressures on rents and prices

- Pent-up demand, leading to rising sales activity

- Low listings levels, relative to rising buyer demand

- The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend, which is hugely influential

- Increased spending on major new infrastructure

- The revival of the resources sector

- The return of ex-pat Australians in large numbers

- The belated entry of investors to compete with owner-occupiers

-Perceptions about the safety and solidity of bricks &amp; mortar in times of uncertainty

-The growing prevalence of e-commerce and its impact on industrial property, which has repercussions for residential demand

- Access to low-cost finance

And you’ll notice that I mention low interest rates as just one of 16 different factors – and I mention it last and definitely least.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020

Economists got real estate wrong in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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It’s a great time to be a landlord in Australia. With rare exceptions, vacancies are ultra low, rents are rising and there’s massive momentum behind prices.

A nationwide property boom is under way (with the big city inner-ring unit markets the exception) and the curious thing is that investors haven’t been joining the party. 

The growth we saw in most markets in 2020 was driven by owner-occupiers, with first-home buyers leading the charge and other home buyers, especially lifestyle-seekers, prominent as well.

Investors were sitting on the fence, worried firstly about the September Cliff which failed to materialise and now apparently concerned about a potential March Cliff.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]

They’ve been waiting to see what would happen, before making decisions. And here’s what has happened while they’ve been fence-sitting – the new data from Domain shows that all capital cities had house price growth ranging from solid to strong in 2020, as did most of regional Australia. There was particularly notable uplift in the December Quarter.

This confirms earlier data from CoreLogic and both confirm the anecdotal evidence from the coal-face of markets which shows properties receiving multiple offers and selling for more than the asking prices, often before being formally listed.

Other research shows that rents have been rising in many parts of Australia, on the back of vacancy rates so low that it constitutes a national rental crisis.

So the hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.

If they’d bought a year ago in many parts of Australia, their properties would now be worth 10%, 15% or 20% more than they paid.

For those who bought in sexy lifestyle locations like Byron Bay and the upmarket areas of the Sunshine Coast, a $1 million investment a year ago would now be worth around $1.3 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=84861]

If you’d bought a $400,000 property in Bendigo 12 months ago, it would likely now be worth around $460,000 (based on the median price data).

So it’s time for investors to stop procrastinating and get busy. And the latest ABS data on loans indicates that, at last, investors are starting to get involved.

This, in fact, is typical investor behaviour. Investors don’t lead property cycles, they react to them. They stampede into the market when they hear there’s a boom happening.

So I expect a big surge of activity from investors in 2021. There are too many good reasons to become buyers of well-located real estate and make it available to a hungry rental market.

The uplift in investor buyers will add further energy to the momentum already happening in markets across the nation.

It will make a national property boom that much more certain.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.



It’s time for real estate investors to stop procrastinating and get busy: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The QBE Australian Housing Outlook Report has added weight to other forecasts of a strong market in Canberra next year and beyond.
Its growth forecast for Canberra over the next three years is the highest among the state and territory capital cities.
The Housing Boom and Bust Report by SQM’s Louis Christopher also has a bullish prediction for Canberra. It suggests dwelling values in Canberra will increase by up to 9% in 2018. The only capital cities tipped to do better are Hobart and Melbourne, with Sydney growth waning. 
This follows a strong period for the Canberra market over the past 12 months, although it’s difficult to know exactly how much house prices have increased. 
The latest figures on price growth in Canberra show how difficult it is for consumers to make sense of the price data published in mainstream media. CoreLogic says Canberra house values are up 9% in the past 12 months, but Domain says 10.5% and SQM Research records a rise of 16%. 
In the apartment market, SQM says Canberra is up 7%, CoreLogic says just 3% and Domain reports a small decline in prices. It’s difficult for consumers to get any direction from such conflicting information. 
My assessment - based on all available data including sales volumes, vacancies and rental growth figures - is that the ACT housing market is strong and rising, but the unit market is less bullish, having been through a period of oversupply in the recent past. 
The quarterly surveys of sales by Hotspotting show that the Canberra market has been upwardly-mobile for the past two years and this is now showing up in price growth data for the housing market.
Meanwhile the QBE report, which is fairly cautious and conservative in its overall predictions for the next three years, has Canberra leading on price growth up to 2020.
“With Federal Government employment being the key driver of economic growth, the outlook for Canberra will be closely linked with public sector employment growth,” it says. “Conditions in the house market are expected to remain largely positive, driven by population growth, an under-supply of houses and strong employment prospects. 
“The median house price in Canberra is forecast to increase a cumulative 16% over the forecast period to $750,000 at June 2020. Canberra is forecast to have the strongest growing market of all the cities over this period.”
By way of background, it says: “Underlying demand for dwellings has been largely supported by population growth. The net interstate outflow has been shrinking over the past four years, with the 2016-17 period resulting in an estimated net inflow of 800 persons. The net overseas migration inflow has also increased to an estimated 2,200 over 2016-17 and appears to be largely related to growth in overseas students.
“The Australian Capital Territory unemployment rate is tightening, indicating an improvement in local economic conditions. At March 2017, unemployment was 3.7% compared to 4.5% in December 2015. Improved demand has led to a tighter vacancy rate of 1.3% in June 2017.”
The report’s comments reinforce my viewsabout the fundamental importance to property markets of events in the local economy, rather than national factors such as the level of interest rates.
Investors looking to capitalise on Canberra’s rising market should be focusing their attention in the north.
A regular feature of Hotspotting’s sales activity surveys is that the busiest markets in Canberra are in the northern suburbs. 
Our Spring survey for The Price Predictor Index confirms that, while there are now growth suburbs across the Canberra metropolitan area, the strongest precincts once again are the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts. 
Suburbs with rising markets in the Belconnen District include Florey, Flynn, Holt and Evatt. Buoyant markets in the Gungahlin precinct include Casey, Ngunnawal, Crace and Palmerston. 
The Inner North precinct is also solid, led by good sales activity in Lyneham and Ainslie. 
Overall, as I have often commented, the stand-out characteristic of Canberra is the steadiness of its performance. 
That, plus the low vacancies and the growth numbers now emerging (including with rentals), make the national capital increasingly appealing for investors. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
<a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter.com/hotspotting</a>
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Canberra forecasts strong next year and beyond: Terry Ryder

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Stand by for an avalanche of hysterical nonsense from mainstream media as the Sydney property market continues its gradual wind-down after four strong years of price growth. 
At Hotspotting we’ve been charting a steady decrease in sales activity for at least the past 18 months across the Sydney metro area. This inevitably has led to the slow-down in the price growth rates we are now seeing, alongside a reduction in auction clearance rates. 
We’re likely to see a similar scenario to the one that evolved in 2004, following the end of the previous boom, which stretched from 2001 to 2003. Back then there were plenty of predictions of price collapse from attention-seekers, but that did not occur. We simply saw an end to the previous price growth and values flat-lined for a few years. 
The evidence to date, both statistical and anecdotal, suggests we’ll see similar things this time. The conditions for significant price decline – economic recession, high unemployment, major oversupply and reckless lending – don’t exist. 
The key elements that drove the up-cycle – the strength of the NSW economy, the very high levels of infrastructure spending and the steady population growth – are still as prominent as ever. And of course we still have very low interest rates, though their influence is much less than the chattering economists would have us believe. 
But we’ve already seen some doomsayer headlines. 
One high-profile commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, claims that values of established apartments have fallen as much as 25 percent in some locations, but I can’t find any evidence of this and neither can anyone else I’ve spoken to. 
The consensus from property professionals at the coal-face is that the frenzy has dissipated and market behaviour has moderated, but there is, as yet, no sign of prices dropping. The evidence is that they have stopped rising, generally speaking. 
Mainstream media, always a great source of misinformation about property markets, over-reacted to the recent CoreLogic figures that suggested a small decrease in Sydney prices in October. That prompted headlines declaring the end of boom and, in some cases, a likely collapse in values. 
It also inspired some of the more shallow commentators, like those at UBS, to rush to be the first to declare the end of “the Australian property boom” – that fictitious entity that exists only in the minds of economists who don’t understand the workings of our many different real estate markets. 
Media should know better than to over-react to month-to-month figures, which are notoriously erratic and ultimately irrelevant. 
I remember similar mis-interpretations late last year when the month-to-month figures showed a 1.3% drop in Melbourne house values in November 2016. Media shouted that the Melbourne boom was over and values were falling. But the next set of monthly figures showed a 3.3% rise in December, at which point media screamed that the boom was back on. And, with further rises in subsequent months, those strident headlines about the collapse of the Melbourne market were quickly forgotten. 
I’ve spoken to a number of respected buyers agents and trustworthy selling agents and no one has seen any sign of the nose-diving values perceived by Gottliebsen in the secondhand apartment market. 
The principal of Snowden Parkes Real Estate, Tony Abboud, is as informed as anyone about Sydney apartment markets and he says the reality is the opposite to what Gottliebsen has claimed. 
The Australian columnist reckons new apartments are fine but secondhand ones are losing value rapidly. Abboud sees it quite differently. He says more and more buyers are opting for the established product, because it’s more affordable than the new stuff – and that’s underpinning values. 
“The existing apartments have been holding up well, because they have lower prices per square metre than the off-the-plan product,” Abboud says. “So it’s made them more attractive. Buyers are also more likely to buy something that’s already built because it offers certainty. 
“We are getting 20 or 30 calls a day from buyers. They are taking longer to make decisions, because the urgency has gone from the market, but there’s an intent to purchase.” 
Buyers agent Kate Hill from Adviseable has seen no evidence of price decline in the Sydney market. 
“The market has eased off but prices are holding at the moment,” she says. “There’s no evidence of a big drop in apartment values. There’s still relatively consistent demand. Markets have come off the boil and a lot more properties are being passed in at auction, but there’s no evidence I’ve seen of price decline.” 
Buyers agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer says that if apartments were selling at a 25 percent discount he would be buying the first that comes on the market, but he has seen no sign of that occurring. 
He’s seeing mixed results in the auction market as far as pricing goes: some selling above reserve, some hitting the reserve price and some selling a little under reserve. 
“There’s certainly no sign of panic,” Harvey says. “Some vendors are being a bit more realistic and we’re seeing a degree of moderation in the market. It’s not quite a buyers’ market yet, but we are seeing opportunities.” 
He says he’s getting more calls from selling agents asking if they have buyers – rather than just opening the door and watching the buyers rush in. 
So, all signs point to a market which, unsurprisingly, is running out of puff after sprinting for four years. But we can expect Sydney to keep jogging steadily. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Avalanche of hysterical nonsense as Sydney property market continues gradual wind-down

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A university study suggests the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games, which are costing around $2 billion to stage, will deliver Queensland a $4 billion economic windfall. 
The question is how much impact the Games will have on Gold Coast real estate markets. We can sure the industry will talk up the benefits and the prodigious Gold Coast publicity machine will be working overtime to lure investors – but I believe the outcomes for real estate will be over-stated.
A Griffith University report says the Games will result in billions of dollars in new public and private infrastructure and 670,000 extra tourists. It will help create 30,000 jobs and stimulate benefits for business years after the Games end. 
The Griffith Institute For Tourism-led report predicts the Games will be “an economic supercharger” for the Gold Coast and Queensland. 
The 68-page report - by five academics specialising in tourism, accounting and finance – says “the state and the country will benefit for years to come”. 
“The Games will bring more international visitors to the state, create business opportunities, and further facilitate multi-faceted cultural exchange,” it says. “The potential impacts ... are multifaceted and include not only economic but social and environmental aspects.” 
A $2 billion boost to the state’s gross domestic product is a key forecast in the report, which also tips $2.6 billion in public and private sector investment. 
The Games are deemed to have been a catalyst for projects such as the $420 million second stage of the Gold Coast light-rail linking to the heavy rail line at Helensvale, as well as upgrades to Pacific Far ($670 million), The Star hotel casino ($345 million), the Gold Coast Airport ($300 million) and various transport infrastructure improvements. 
Then there’s specific Games infrastructure, including the $550 million athletes village, the $110 million Gold Coast Sport and Leisure Centre, the $40 million Gold Coast Aquatic Centre and the $40 million Coomera Indoor Sports Centre.
Around 16,000 full-time equivalent jobs are forecast to be generated before, during and after the Games, plus another 14,000 temporary positions. 
So, while the economic and infrastructure benefits appear clear, less certain are the impacts on the real estate market.
The Commonwealth Games promise to provide a short-term sugar hit for the real estate market – and we’ve seen much of that impact already. 
The benefits for housing demand relate to the jobs created by the event and related construction work. There have been thousands of workers drawn to the Gold Coast for the construction jobs in the lead-up to the event. But most of those jobs disappear once projects are completed prior to the Games.
This explains why the Gold Coast was a leading growth market in 2015 and 2016 – but has started to level out in terms of sales activity in 2017.
The other factor – and this is the big one – is the degree to which developers over-react to the Games impact and over-build.
The Gold Coast is a notorious boom-bust market even in “normal” times. It lurches from peak to trough periodically – and often takes years to recover from a bout of major oversupply.
This helps to explain why the median price for an apartment in Surfers Paradise is lower today than it was a decade ago. It’s similar for other coastal suburbs like Main Beach and Broadbeach.
Over-supply is the biggest killer of property markets across Australia and the Gold Coast is a leading example of this phenomenon.
Developers, partly in response to the Games euphoria, are building more high-rise unit projects, and larger projects, than ever before.
I fear that this will snuff out any chance of the Gold Coast market experiencing a sustainable boom from the Commonwealth Games.
Any investors tempted by the euphoria should steer clear of the high-rise markets and concentrate on the genuine housing markets inland.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
<a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter.com/hotspotting</a>
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How will the Commonwealth Games impact the Gold Coast real estate markets?

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One of the prevailing myths in residential real estate is that you should always buy in the capital cities because regional centres can’t match the big cities on capital growth.
And like most generalised commentary on Australian housing issues, it’s rubbish.
The myth is supported by research companies which specialise in trying to encapsulate an entire nation or a very large region in a single growth figure.
Here’s a recent example: dwelling values have grown 7 percent in the combined capital cities in the past 12 months, but the combined regional areas have grown 5 percent.
That’s pretty clear, right? The capital cities win again!
But, like all generalisations about Australian real estate, the figures are meaningless and essentially useless.
The 7% growth figure for capital cities doesn’t tell us anything useful, because it disguises two cities where values have fallen, two where values have grown very little, a couple with solid growth and a couple with strong growth.
And within those capital cities, there are myriad different scenarios playing out for local reasons.
So you can imagine how many disparate and diverse local market situations contribute to the huge melting pot that distils them into one small, misleading and basically pointless figure for “regional Australia”: 5% growth, according to one source.
Why do they do it? Because media laps it up and gives them lots of free publicity for this steady stream of worthless misinformation.
Much more useful is looking at individual markets – some of which blow away the myth about regional markets under-performing.
The city of Newcastle is as good an example as any. Newcastle - driven by a strong local economy and big spending on infrastructure and new development, as well as appealing prices relative to Sydney - has produced extremely strong price growth in the past two years (as we predicted at Hotspotting).
Most suburbs of the Newcastle City LGA have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months. Eight of those suburbs have grown more than 20 percent, including a couple above 30 percent.
The median for Waratah is up 16 percent to $555,000, Adamstown is up 23 percent to $655,000, Stockton has grown 21 percent to $690,000, Maryville 26 percent to $720,000 and Cooks Hill 32 percent to $1,085,000.
Under-pinning that growth has been massive investment in the Newcastle economy. The Hotspotting lists of projects driving the economic growth total well over $20 billion, including resources, transport infrastructure, commercial, retail and residential developments.
The only regional city in Australia that can match Newcastle for this level of investment is the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, which also tops $20 billion.
Of course, given the very high price growth that’s already occurred in Newcastle, it’s too late to get into that market at a decent price.
But there are other ways to benefit from what’s happening in Newcastle, which is part of a broader region.
The Lake Macquarie LGA, which borders Newcastle City, is also a growth market but hasn’t yet had the same level of price increases.
And heading west out into the Hunter Valley, there are numerous towns moving into growth phases but with the big price growth yet to come – such as Maitland and Cessnock.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional centres can match capital growth of big cities

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over price data as the only market measure worth talking about, the forgotten barometer is residential rentals.
Not only does mainstream media misunderstand and misinterpret median price data, but it largely overlooks the fundamental importance of what’s happening in the rental markets of our major cities. 
Vacancy rates and rental growth figures are important because they’re often a pointer to future rises in dwelling prices.
Before Sydney got on its growth path with price rises, it had a couple of years of strong growth in rents. Hobart, currently the price growth leader in capital city Australia, also had notable growth in rentals before prices started to rise. 
According to the latest SQM Research figures, Hobart still has the lowest vacancy rate among the cities and it’s still delivering significant rental growth alongside the price growth - still rising in double digits, according to some (but not all) research sources).
This is a pattern that, according to the research, is common - rents rise before prices do. This makes patterns with vacancies and rents worth noting.
So I’ve looked at the latest rental data from two key sources, Domain and SQM Research.
The market leader is a toss-up between Canberra and Hobart. This makes sense when you understand that these two cities have stood out for the past couple of years as the places with the tightest rental markets, both with vacancy rates well below 1 percent.
In the national capital, both Domain and SQM have house rents rising between 8 and 9 percent in annual terms, while apartments rents are up 7 percent (Domain) or 5 percent (SQM).
In Hobart, the two research sources agree that rents have risen markedly for both houses and apartments, but the numbers are quite different. Domain has rents up 11 percent for houses and 9 percent for apartments; SQM’s growth figures are 5 percent for houses and 14 percent for units.
So it’s pretty clear-cut. Canberra and Hobart have been the leading cities for low vacancies and strongly rising rentals.
But what is the third-ranked city in those terms? The answer is the city no one (other than me) ever talks about, Adelaide.
Adelaide’s vacancy rate has been hovering around 1 percent, according to recent SQM figures. Some sectors of the Adelaide market, such as the City of Marion, have vacancy rates closer to 0.5 percent.
And recently the SA capital has been producing solid rental growth figures. Domain records annual growth of 4.2 percent for houses and just under 2 percent for apartments, while SQM reports around 3 percent for houses and 3.4 percent for apartments.
Adelaide’s growth seems fairly moderate but, to put it in perspective, the two research sources have Sydney rents stagnating or falling. SQM, for example, has Sydney house rents down 3.6 percent and apartments falling 1.2 percent in annual terms.
In Brisbane, where vacancy rates have been high (although now trending downwards), rents have been fairly stagnant over the past year.
In Darwin, where vacancy rates have been elevated for several years, Domain has house rents down almost 4 percent and SQM records a reduction of close to 6 percent.
Domain records no change in Perth rents for both houses and apartments, although SQM suggests house rents are showing early signs of a return to growth - which would correlate to steadily improving figures on vacancy rates.
Melbourne’s rental data is moderate only, with both sources suggesting rises of 2-3 percent in the past 12 months.
So where do the vacancy/rental trends point us, in terms of predicting future growth in prices. I would suggest the best answers (particularly when considered alongside other evidence) are Adelaide, Canberra and Perth.
Canberra has very low vacancies and strongly rising rents. It also has a strong local economy and rising sales activity. Its price growth, currently solid but moderate, should improve. The top end of the market is already rising.
Adelaide has low vacancies and improving rental growth. It also has an improving local economy and a busy sales market. Price performance, already strong in the million-dollar suburbs, should escalate.
And Perth, where rents and prices have been falling in recent years, is poised to rise. Its vacancies are trending steadily downwards, there’s evidence of rising leasing activity and the first signs of a return to rental growth. As the state economy improves, sales activity is steadily rising - and price growth is already happening in the top end suburbs.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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