Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Terry Ryder

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One of the great absurdities of real estate research is the notion that you can encapsulate price growth for a major city in a single figure. 
The Greater Sydney area has a population of 4.82 million (2016 Census) and contains over 700 suburbs. They include markets as diverse as Macquarie Park versus Macquarie Fields and Newtown versus Campbelltown.
They’re not all doing to the same thing at any one time, nor moving at the same speed.
But the research houses would have us believe that you can distil all the sales activity in these contrasting places into a single growth figure that makes sense.
It’s crazy to even try, but that’s what they do. And media laps it up, so long as it’s presented in a neat little media release package that makes journalists’ lives really easy.
This may explain why Sydney house prices are growing at an annual rate of 7.4 percent if you believe SQM Research asking price growth index, or 4 percent if you trust the latest figures from Domain, or just 0.1 percent if you think CoreLogic is the bee’s knees in real estate data.
Melbourne house prices are growing at either 8 percent, 11.3 percent or 23.6 percent in annual terms, depending on your source of choice.
The Adelaide is rising, or falling; the Perth market is recovering, or not; and Canberra is up 5 percent or 18 percent – all dependent on which report you read most recently.
In my view, all real estate data is rubbery figures, to some degree.
And it’s adds an extra level of absurdity when economists, the least informed species about residential property on planet Earth, discuss Australian real estate as a single market. They all do it and media reports their misinformation daily – because if they have “economist” in their title they must be credible, right?
The reality is that we have a five-speed market in just the eight capital cities – and within those cities they are many different scenarios playing out.
We never have a situation in a major city where all parts of the market are rising (or falling) in unison.
Generally speaking, cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually. The up-cycles in both Melbourne and Sydney began in the so-called prime suburbs and gravitated outwards over 3-4 years.
It’s a signal that the cycle has almost run its course when the areas with the most sales activity and price growth are in the outer-ring suburbs. We’re at that time right now with both our largest cities, with the Camden LGA one of the few remaining upwardly-mobile markets in Greater Sydney, and outlying areas like the Hume LGA and the Wyndham City LGA the strongest markets in Greater Melbourne.
What’s happening with our major markets makes a lot more sense when you chart them using sales volumes, rather than changes in price measures. 
The latter method is fraught with potential for aberrations, with the results dependent on methodology and other factors, as the figures presented earlier illustrate very clearly.
Sydney house prices are not growing at an annual rate of 4 percent, as Domain would have us believe. Some suburbs are growing more than that, others are at the point in the cycle where they’re not growing at all and some have values going a little backwards. A few areas, particularly those close to over-supplied apartment precincts, will have larger declines in values.
But none of that will be conveyed to real estate consumers – they’ll be given a single misleading figure encapsulating the whole city, only to be contradicted a few days later by a different number from another source.
But the sales activity figures (which we examine every quarter for The Price Predictor Index) seldom lie.
They’re revealing in all sorts of ways. For example, how about this question: when did the Melbourne market peak?
For in the swanky inner south-eastern suburbs such as Hawthorn (median price $2.1 million) and Canterbury ($2.9 million), it was early in 2014.
For middle market areas like Blackburn ($1.3 million) and Oakleigh ($1.2 million) it was the early part of 2015. And outer-ring precincts like Cranbourne ($480,000) and Carrum Downs ($500,000) hit their high points late in 2016 or early in 2017. Other outlying areas arrived at that point towards the end of last year.
It shows the many different market scenarios in play across the nation – and the degree to which economists and other commentators misinform consumers with their one-size-fits-all approach to real estate analysis.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Property price growth cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Price growth in the Top end suburbs can often be a signal for an emerging growth cycle in a city market. 
Certainly, the booms in both Sydney and Melbourne started in the most expensive areas and rippled out to the middle-ring and outer-ring areas over time. 
This is because real estate growth comes from events in the local economy. When the underlying economy in a major city starts to thrive, the first people to benefit are the business owners and others with above-average incomes - and that translates into purchases in the prestige suburbs.
So we think it is significant that, while prices remain suppressed in Perth overall, many of the millionaire suburbs have seen good price growth in the past year. This is also a feature in Adelaide: price growth overall has been moderate but prices have been rising strongly in the Top End suburbs.
It’s much less prevalent in the Brisbane market, which is struck in second gear and struggling to accelerate.
One factor evident in our latest analysis of sales activity and prices is that there is growth in the upper end of the Perth market. The latest data shows that several Perth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million have recorded strong growth in their medians in the past 12 months. 
This trend is widespread across the prestige market. Suburbs with strongly rising prices include Nedlands, Applecross, Cottesloe, Dalkeith and Bicton. 
Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the mining sector and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.
This suggests that Perth generally can look forward to a return to price growth in the near future. This is supported by recent reports from Knight Frank, SQM Research and the Real Estate Institute of WA.
In Adelaide, while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in past 12 months.
Glenelg South, Kensington Park, St Georges, Erindale, Henley Beach South, Hyde Park, North Adelaide and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and have had median price growth above 20% in the past year. Other upper-level suburbs like Glenunga, Norwood, Parkside, Beaumont and Crafers have had growth above 10%. 
Some suburbs have had median price growth above 35% (and one above 40%) but based on small sales samples so we think this may be misleading.
In Brisbane, however, only a handful of popular inner-ring suburbs (e.g. Ashgrove, Paddington and Bulimba) have recorded double-digit growth in median prices in the past year.
Some examples of rising markets in the Top End of some capital cities:-
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" alt="">
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Prestige markets rising in smaller cities like Perth and Adelaide: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are strong linkages between events in the local economy and outcomes in real estate markets.
If a city’s economy is growing and creating jobs, real estate markets will be busy.
Proximity to employment nodes is an important marker to look for, remembering that most of the jobs are in the suburbs, not in the CBDs.
At Hotspotting we’re scouring information sources every day looking for events that indicate buoyancy (or otherwise) in local economies.
If a major new infrastructure project is planned, we want to know about it. If a business is expanding, creating hundreds of extra jobs, that’s worth adding to our database of knowledge. If a company is relocating its business because of a particular dynamic in the new location, that creates a blip on our radar screen.
Here are some examples of what I mean:
Tesla and South Australia
Elon Musk’s Tesla has set up the group’s first Australian battery and electric cars service centre at the Tonsley innovation precinct in Adelaide. 
Heath Walker, senior manager, marketing and communications at Tesla, says: “The facility will help service our growing footprint in the state, including the <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/worlds-largest-lithium-battery-switched-on-near-jamestown/news-story/2c4992845ce77309d7dad0d48a2d754c">Hornsdale battery system</a> and other Powerwall systems we have there, including one recently installed at the TAFE facility at Tonsley.”
The Federal and State Governments last month announced they will invest in South Australia’s second large-scale Tesla “big battery’’. The 52MWh battery will be connected to the existing Lake Bonney Wind Farm near Millicent in the state’s south-east.
Tesla installed Australia’s first big battery - and currently the world’s largest at 100MWh - at Jamestown, next to the Hornsdale wind farm run by French company Neoen.
In July, Tesla installed residential-scale batteries at 100 Housing SA homes, equipped with solar panels as part of the first phase of a State Government-backed 250 MW virtual power plant. A further 1000 public housing properties will receive the same equipment in the second phase.
Why do we care? Because the South Australian economy is on a growth path and a significant part of the emerging growth is the state’s status as the national leader on alternative energy and Adelaide’s growing reputation as the nation’s leading city for high-tech innovation.
The Tonsley precinct, which has emerged from the ashes of a former Mitsubishi car plant, is a thriving innovation, health and education centre in the Marion LGA, which we rate highly as an emerging hotspot.
Youi and the Sunshine Coast
Insurance company Youi is currently seeking to recruit 120 people for its headquarters on the Sunshine Coast. 
When the $73 million building at Sippy Downs first opened in November 2017, it employed 1,000 people and the company's stated vision was to eventually grow this to 3,000. 
Youi’s decision to locate its national HQ on the Sunshine Coast is indicative of the evolution of this location from tourist resort to regional city.
A lot is changing in the Sunshine Coast economy, much of it inspired by major spending on infrastructure and new business ventures. 
The new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital, has been a game-changer.  Billions more are being spent on the local airport, key sections of the motorway, the new Maroochydore CBD and many other projects. 
The total list of Sunshine Coast projects is worth over $20 billion and it’s transforming the local economy - and with it the local property market.
Ipswich and the military economy
Any location with a strong military economy has an advantage. Cities with a RAAF Base and/or Army base have a built-in generator of economic activity and jobs, particularly given the current national trend of expansion.
Examples include Newcastle, northern Adelaide, Wagga Wagga and Ipswich in the far south-west of Brisbane.
Ipswich has the Amberley RAAF Base on its doorstep and has a growing number of major businesses servicing the military.
It was announced recently that TAE Aerospace will develop a Turbine Engine Maintenance Facility (TEMF) in the Ipswich suburb of Bundamba to support Australia’s fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike fighter jets. 
The addition of the F135 engine MRO&amp;U activities will add 15 aerospace technician jobs to its workforce and up to 85 additional jobs as part of the future F-35 Global Support Solution.
Not far away in Wacol, Rheinmetall is building its $170 million Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence to build vehicles for the Australian Army. Watpac has been appointed managing contractor to deliver the facility, which is expected to support 300 jobs, with completion expected in 2020.
The facility will be Rheinmetall's largest presence outside of Germany and will manage the delivery of the initial 211 Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles under Land 400 Phase 2, and accommodate Rheinmetall's other defence projects.
Also in Wacol, Volvo Group Australia recently opened its new national headquarters at the Metroplex Westgate business park, close to the company’s existing assembly plant.
Around 300 jobs were created during construction of the new headquarters and around 195 people will now work there, along with 530 at the nearby factory.
For these and many other reasons, I’m bullish about the prospects for real estate growth in Ipswich, which has many affordable suburbs and strong infrastructure, as well as many big jobs nodes. Businesses base themselves there because the land is cheap and the transport links are good.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Military economy benefiting Ipswich property investors: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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A university study suggests the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games, which are costing around $2 billion to stage, will deliver Queensland a $4 billion economic windfall. 
The question is how much impact the Games will have on Gold Coast real estate markets. We can sure the industry will talk up the benefits and the prodigious Gold Coast publicity machine will be working overtime to lure investors – but I believe the outcomes for real estate will be over-stated.
A Griffith University report says the Games will result in billions of dollars in new public and private infrastructure and 670,000 extra tourists. It will help create 30,000 jobs and stimulate benefits for business years after the Games end. 
The Griffith Institute For Tourism-led report predicts the Games will be “an economic supercharger” for the Gold Coast and Queensland. 
The 68-page report - by five academics specialising in tourism, accounting and finance – says “the state and the country will benefit for years to come”. 
“The Games will bring more international visitors to the state, create business opportunities, and further facilitate multi-faceted cultural exchange,” it says. “The potential impacts ... are multifaceted and include not only economic but social and environmental aspects.” 
A $2 billion boost to the state’s gross domestic product is a key forecast in the report, which also tips $2.6 billion in public and private sector investment. 
The Games are deemed to have been a catalyst for projects such as the $420 million second stage of the Gold Coast light-rail linking to the heavy rail line at Helensvale, as well as upgrades to Pacific Far ($670 million), The Star hotel casino ($345 million), the Gold Coast Airport ($300 million) and various transport infrastructure improvements. 
Then there’s specific Games infrastructure, including the $550 million athletes village, the $110 million Gold Coast Sport and Leisure Centre, the $40 million Gold Coast Aquatic Centre and the $40 million Coomera Indoor Sports Centre.
Around 16,000 full-time equivalent jobs are forecast to be generated before, during and after the Games, plus another 14,000 temporary positions. 
So, while the economic and infrastructure benefits appear clear, less certain are the impacts on the real estate market.
The Commonwealth Games promise to provide a short-term sugar hit for the real estate market – and we’ve seen much of that impact already. 
The benefits for housing demand relate to the jobs created by the event and related construction work. There have been thousands of workers drawn to the Gold Coast for the construction jobs in the lead-up to the event. But most of those jobs disappear once projects are completed prior to the Games.
This explains why the Gold Coast was a leading growth market in 2015 and 2016 – but has started to level out in terms of sales activity in 2017.
The other factor – and this is the big one – is the degree to which developers over-react to the Games impact and over-build.
The Gold Coast is a notorious boom-bust market even in “normal” times. It lurches from peak to trough periodically – and often takes years to recover from a bout of major oversupply.
This helps to explain why the median price for an apartment in Surfers Paradise is lower today than it was a decade ago. It’s similar for other coastal suburbs like Main Beach and Broadbeach.
Over-supply is the biggest killer of property markets across Australia and the Gold Coast is a leading example of this phenomenon.
Developers, partly in response to the Games euphoria, are building more high-rise unit projects, and larger projects, than ever before.
I fear that this will snuff out any chance of the Gold Coast market experiencing a sustainable boom from the Commonwealth Games.
Any investors tempted by the euphoria should steer clear of the high-rise markets and concentrate on the genuine housing markets inland.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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How will the Commonwealth Games impact the Gold Coast real estate markets?

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One of the prevailing myths in residential real estate is that you should always buy in the capital cities because regional centres can’t match the big cities on capital growth.
And like most generalised commentary on Australian housing issues, it’s rubbish.
The myth is supported by research companies which specialise in trying to encapsulate an entire nation or a very large region in a single growth figure.
Here’s a recent example: dwelling values have grown 7 percent in the combined capital cities in the past 12 months, but the combined regional areas have grown 5 percent.
That’s pretty clear, right? The capital cities win again!
But, like all generalisations about Australian real estate, the figures are meaningless and essentially useless.
The 7% growth figure for capital cities doesn’t tell us anything useful, because it disguises two cities where values have fallen, two where values have grown very little, a couple with solid growth and a couple with strong growth.
And within those capital cities, there are myriad different scenarios playing out for local reasons.
So you can imagine how many disparate and diverse local market situations contribute to the huge melting pot that distils them into one small, misleading and basically pointless figure for “regional Australia”: 5% growth, according to one source.
Why do they do it? Because media laps it up and gives them lots of free publicity for this steady stream of worthless misinformation.
Much more useful is looking at individual markets – some of which blow away the myth about regional markets under-performing.
The city of Newcastle is as good an example as any. Newcastle - driven by a strong local economy and big spending on infrastructure and new development, as well as appealing prices relative to Sydney - has produced extremely strong price growth in the past two years (as we predicted at Hotspotting).
Most suburbs of the Newcastle City LGA have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months. Eight of those suburbs have grown more than 20 percent, including a couple above 30 percent.
The median for Waratah is up 16 percent to $555,000, Adamstown is up 23 percent to $655,000, Stockton has grown 21 percent to $690,000, Maryville 26 percent to $720,000 and Cooks Hill 32 percent to $1,085,000.
Under-pinning that growth has been massive investment in the Newcastle economy. The Hotspotting lists of projects driving the economic growth total well over $20 billion, including resources, transport infrastructure, commercial, retail and residential developments.
The only regional city in Australia that can match Newcastle for this level of investment is the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, which also tops $20 billion.
Of course, given the very high price growth that’s already occurred in Newcastle, it’s too late to get into that market at a decent price.
But there are other ways to benefit from what’s happening in Newcastle, which is part of a broader region.
The Lake Macquarie LGA, which borders Newcastle City, is also a growth market but hasn’t yet had the same level of price increases.
And heading west out into the Hunter Valley, there are numerous towns moving into growth phases but with the big price growth yet to come – such as Maitland and Cessnock.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional centres can match capital growth of big cities

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Real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions and there are few bigger than this furphy: you always get the best growth in the “prime” areas.
That old chestnut has always been false but commentators still repeat it, particularly those who make their living from selling real estate in the millionaire suburbs.
The top end of town in both Melbourne and Sydney have seen good growth in recent years, but over the longer-term they’re not the market leaders.
In Melbourne, the prime market is headed by suburbs like Toorak (median price $4.7 million) and Canterbury (a tick under $3 million). Toorak’s 10-year growth average is 5.9 percent a year, which is pretty ordinary, while Canterbury averages 6.8 percent. By contrast, the previously-stigmatized Sunshine suburbs in the western suburbs all average above 10 percent a year, while humble Thomastown and Lalor up in the northern fringes of the Melbourne metro area average better than 9 percent.
There are many similar examples to be found across Sydney and Melbourne.
It’s good news for real estate consumers, most of whom can’t afford the swanky suburbs and are simply looking for locations where the prices are attainable and the growth prospects are strong.
Fortunately, there are plenty of options around Australia.
Right now, the most buoyant markets – as well as the ones with the best future prospects – are generally the more affordable ones.
While the average price performance for Sydney and Melbourne is now a little in the negative, it’s mostly happening in the expensive areas, while the more affordable outer-ring markets are still delivering some growth.
Our strongest capital city market right now is the cheapest one, Hobart.
The capital cities with the best prospects moving forward are those which offer a lot more affordable options than Sydney or Melbourne – namely, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
And in terms of the markets that are showing the greatest activity and highest price growth right now – they’re mostly regional centres, where prices are a lot more attractive than their capital cities.
Geelong has thrived partly because of the price comparison with Melbourne and Newcastle has surged thanks in part to its pricing compared to Sydney.
For these and other reasons, the most popular reports at Hotspotting include the ones we call Cheapies with Prospects. We have a city edition and a regional edition.
Each edition has five locations worth considering and here I’m focusing on three of them, to illustrate why cheaper areas with good growth drivers are worthy of attention from real estate consumers.
Ipswich City
Not many capital cities offer suburbs with median house prices below $300,000 but Brisbane does. You’re most likely to find them in Ipswich City (pictured above) in the south-west of the Greater Brisbane area – although suburbs with medians in the $300,000s are more common.
So the area offers plenty of “Cheapies” but the key words are “With Prospects”, and Ipswich City offers plenty of potential for growth.
It has good infrastructure, transport links, amenities and major job nodes, helped by the evolution of master-planned communities like Springfield. 
A key factor in identifying hotspots is what’s coming up in the near future and this is what puts Ipswich firmly on our radar screen: there is big spending on infrastructure, like the ongoing expansion of the RAAF Base at Amberley, and major new jobs nodes, like the one being created by the $5 billion Defence contract recently announced.
City of Marion
The South Australian economy is steadily improving and prospects for Adelaide property markets are rising. 
I like the City of Marion because it’s middle market by Adelaide standards but its price levels are below the bottom end of Sydney and Melbourne.
Several suburbs have median house prices in the $300,000s though there are more in the $400,000s. The LGA is handy to the Adelaide CBD, with good transport links, and has multiple growth drivers, including Flinders University, the nearby Flinders medical precinct and the strongly-emerging Tonsley precinct created from the former Mitsubishi car plant.
Ballarat
Regional Australia abounds with growth markets at the moment and many of them have attractive prices.
Ballarat in Victoria stands out because it’s a strong, growing regional city with great links to its capital city, but at a fraction of the price.
There are growing numbers of Melbourne residents prowling Ballarat looking for affordable properties with attractive rental yields, amid a thriving local economy.
There are suburbs with median house prices in the mid-$200,000s and others in the low-to-mid-$300,000s. Yields in the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range are on offer.
Several locations have recorded double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
The most popular suburbs, in terms of sales numbers, are Wendouree and Sebastopol, both of which have a median price of $260,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Three of the best and cheapest locations with growth prospects: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports. 
Every quarter I write The Price Predictor Index, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.
In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.
The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. 
Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.
Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city. 
The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia. 
Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.
The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends. 
Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline. 
Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.
The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity. 
It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas. 
In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA). 
And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices. 
In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.
Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney. 
Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.
I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

Regional Victoria remains one of the nation’s leading markets, especially on price performance. Of the 138 suburbs and towns ranked our Price Predictor Index, 116 of them have recorded price growth in the past year. 

That means 84% of locations throughout Regional Victoria have growing prices. More than half of those growth markets have increased their median house prices more than 5% in the past year, including many which have had double-digit growth.

The strength of prices in Regional Victoria is confirmed by the latest price data published by CoreLogic on 1 June. House prices recorded, after recording solid increases in March and April, were unchanged in May, while unit prices were up 0.5% during the month.

Regional areas of the state have been boosted by buyers out of Melbourne, including home buyers seeking a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle, while in some cases working remotely for a city business. The coronavirus shutdown period which forced people to work from home is likely to further enhance this trend.

Our Winter survey of sales activity reveals that Regional Victoria has remained quite resilient in terms of sales activity, in the faces of the Covid-19 impacts. There has been only a minor reduction in the number of locations with growing sales activity, compared to the results of our Autumn survey.

There are 27 locations with rising demand. The numbers for the Winter survey are comparable to the results of the previous four quarterly surveys, which generally have indicated that the Regional Victoria market jurisdiction has passed its peak but remains sturdy.

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This market was at its strongest throughout 2018, when three consecutive quarterly surveys had 47, 47 and 51 locations with rising sales activity.

But, as our research regularly demonstrates, real estate prices often remain strong long after the peak of the market in terms of sales activity.

This is shown by the many individual suburbs and towns throughout Regional Victoria which have recorded median price growth above 10% in the past 12 months.

Ballarat has been particularly outstanding, with price growth headed by the suburbs of Ballarat Central (up 24%) and Lake Wendouree (23%). Brown Hills, Redan, Alfredton and Sebastopol have all increased between 10% and 12%. Other Ballarat suburbs have increased 7-8%.

The best performers in Geelong have been Drysdale (19%) and Bell Park (10%), while growth in Bendigo has been led by East Bendigo (21%).

But growth markets have been spread widely throughout the state, including Irymple (27%), Tatura (23%), Nagambie (19%) and Euroa (18%).

Other which have risen by between 10% and 14% include Apollo Bay, Portland, Woodend, Churchill, Daylesford and Morwell.

There are numerous locations throughout Regional Victoria which have delivered annual growth of 7-8-9%.

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In terms of locations with rising sales activity, which is a pointer to future price growth, the outstanding LGAs are Geelong and Bendigo.

The City of Greater Geelong has provided strong growth markets for the past three years and continues to show resilience. It benefits from its ability to provide an affordable alternative to Melbourne, underpinned by a strong local economy and good links to the nearby capital city.

In our Winter survey we have identified seven growth suburbs and four consistency suburbs, a good result in difficult times. There are also 15 suburbs in Greater Geelong classified as plateau markets. 

Bendigo has five growth markets and two consistency ones, in addition to nine plateau markets. This important regional city is benefiting from growing interest from Melbourne buyers and also investors from other parts of Australia.

Bendigo is behind Ballarat in the market cycle so we think has more upside, looking to the future. Ballarat has been a great performer in the past 2-3 years, as the price growth figures show, but is past its peak, with only one suburb remaining with growing sales activity.

The other standout is Latrobe City, where Morwell, Newborough and /Traralgon are all growth locations, while Moe and Churchill are consistency markets.

Other growth markets across the state include Ararat, Benalla, Castlemaine, Gisborne, Romsey, Cobram, Horsham, Mildura, Wonthaggi and Mooroopna.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>

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Ballarat leading the regional Victorian house price boom: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Adelaide is challenging Canberra as the most consistent market in capital city Australia. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices – and continues to be our most under-rated market.
You’d never know any of this, as real estate consumers, because of the way mainstream media reports real estate – a focus on median price data to the exclusion of all other market barometers, sweeping generalisations which often discuss Australia as a single market, an obsession with Sydney and Melbourne as the only markets of importance, an annoying tendency to zero in on negatives, and a host of other problems.
Media seldom bothers to discuss Adelaide and when it gets the occasional brief mention it’s usually a generalised “Adelaide prices grew only 1% in the past year” or “the median house price for Adelaide fell 0.3% in the latest quarter”.
This tells us nothing of value – and disguises the multiplicity of scenarios playing out in the markets of the South Australia capital city.
So, for something with a little more depth, that tells you something that actually has value, consider the following:
In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand. 
Seven out of ten Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%. 
The list of suburbs with growth above 15% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.
Hotspotting’s Winter survey has identified 64 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum, the second highest quarterly result for the city since we started the surveys. Over the past couple of years, the number of growth suburbs has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62 and 64.
Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).
There are 10 Local Government Areas across the Adelaide metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout – one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens.
The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with eight rising suburbs. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum.
Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with seven growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park.
Onkaparinga, which always features in our Adelaide analysis, also has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54, 63, 67 and 70), Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford.
Six municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Salisbury, Unley and West Torrens LGAs.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 70% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago - and almost half of those have grown by more than 5%.
Of the 189 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 54 have grown 5% or more and 64 have increased by less than 5%. There are only 17 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area where median house prices have fallen by more than 5%.
Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 29% to $1,075,000), Somerton Park (up 27% to $955,000), Unley (up 14% to $990,000) and Henley Beach South (up 15% to $985,000). Aldgate and Beulah Park, with median house prices in the $800,000s, have both risen 15-16% in the past 12 months.
But there is strong growth also in other price ranges, including Mansfield Park (up 20% to $405,000), Elizabeth North (up 18% to $180,000), Underdale (up 16% to $665,000) and Broadview (up 15% to $570,000).
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Adelaide challenging Canberra as Australia's most consistent property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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