Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

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After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

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Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

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Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

Our research for the upcoming Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index shows that Regional Queensland has set another record, with 171 locations with rising sales activity and 96% of all locations achieving price growth in the past year.

The total of 171 rising markets is the highest recorded in the six years of these quarterly surveys. From 2015 to 2020, the average number of rising markets in our surveys of Regional Queensland was 49. The three surveys in 2021 have recorded 157, 146 and 171 rising markets.

The latest increase in the number of upwardly mobile markets comes despite a further softening in the Sunshine Coast market. The Sunshine Coast Region and Noosa Shire combined still have 19 rising markets, but this compares with 25 three months ago and 37 six months ago. This distinct pattern of a softening market comes after three very strong years in this market, and prices are still rising.

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Elsewhere in Regional Queensland, it&rsquo;s very much a story of growth. The Gold Coast, Cairns, Bundaberg, Gladstone, Mackay, Rockhampton, Toowoomba and Townsville have all increased the number of suburbs with rising sales volumes.

The Gold Coast is the most prolific municipality in the nation: 37 of the 49 Gold Coast City suburbs ranked in this report have rising trajectories with sales activity. This is an incredibly strong market, thriving on the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and going to another level every time Sydney and Melbourne experience lockdowns. Southport is a particularly prolific market: quarterly sales have been 197 288 382 496 505.

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The other standout market is Toowoomba, where 14 of the 17 suburbs ranked in this report are categorised as growth markets.

In the Far North of the state, both Cairns and Townsville have buoyant markets. Cairns has 16 suburbs with rising sales activity and Townsville has 11. In Palm Cove in Cairns, quarterly sales activity has been 25 54 69 78 92.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=101206 project_image_fid=162024]

In Central Queensland, nine of the 10 Rockhampton suburbs in this report are rising, while 10 of the 14 Mackay suburbs have increasing sales activity. In Yeppoon, quarterly sales have been 41 73 99 107

Gladstone is continuing its revival after a long slump: 8 out of 12 suburbs now have rising sales activity and there is growing evidence of price recovery.

Bundaberg continues to emerge as a growth city, with 8 out of 11 suburbs delivering rising sales activity.

There is also rising momentum in the Whitsundays market.

PRICES: The Sunshine Coast region is the undoubted star of price growth performance in Regional Queensland, although the Gold Coast is also challenging.

Across Queensland, 96% of locations have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. Almost 60% of locations have risen more than 10%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=171653]

Unit markets have also done well, with 85% of locations recording annual rises in their median unit prices.

Across the region covered by the Sunshine Coast and Noosa councils, there are 33 suburbs and towns where the median house price has increased by at least 12% in the past year.

Sunrise Beach is up 37% to $1.2 million, while Minyama has risen 29% to $1.5 million. Markets which have increased 20-22% include Coolum Beach ($850,000), Wurtulla ($745,000), Woombye ($635,000), Twin Waters ($970,000), Maleny ($750,000), Mt Coolum ($760,000), Mudjimba ($920,000) and Noosaville ($1.35 million).

The Gold Coast has 26 suburbs with annual growth in house prices above 12%, led by Currumbin (up 24% to $1.18 million) and Bundall (22% to $1.27 million). Tallai, Tugun, Coomera, Labrador and Miami have all lifted 18-19% in the past year.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=21132 project_image_fid=33504]

The Hervey Bay market is lifting, headed by the 25% rise in Pialba ($400,000), while six other suburbs have increased more than 12%.

Mackay has several growing suburbs, led by 30% in Sarina ($375,000) and 25% in East Mackay ($425,000). Gladstone&rsquo;s recovery continues, with double-digit median price growth in six of its suburbs.

In Far North Queensland, Cairns has multiple growth locations, including Palm Cove (up 30% to $770,000), Caravonica (30% to $500,000) and Port Douglas (27% to $750,000). The revival in Townsville is being led by the 30% rise in North Ward ($735,000).

Unit markets have also done well, with 85% of locations recording annual rises in their median unit prices

terryryder

The rise and rise of Regional Queensland property markets continue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

Multiple factors are driving our real estate markets but it can all be distilled down to this: we have shortages of everything.

Why are prices rising? Because there&rsquo;s a shortage of listings, relative to buyer demand.

Why are rents rising? Because there&rsquo;s a chronic shortage of rental properties.

Why are building costs rising? Because there&rsquo;s a shortage of everything and everybody involved in the creation of new dwellings.

Who&rsquo;s responsible for these situations? The politicians and bureaucrats who love to tinker at the edges of our property markets but never think beyond the press conference.

These shortages and their consequences create serious issues for Australians and they warrant urgent action. But there&rsquo;s no evidence that the politicians are even aware there&rsquo;s a problem.

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They&rsquo;re all obsessed with the pandemic and haven&rsquo;t noticed the multitude of tenants who can&rsquo;t find a rental property at any price or the prospective owners of a newly-built home who can&rsquo;t proceed because they can&rsquo;t find an available builder - or the one they have can&rsquo;t get the materials they need.

We have a serious undersupply of rental properties because investors have been discouraged by a series of decisions and policies by politicians and bureaucrats over the past five years.

Investors have been largely sitting on the sidelines and right now there are more investors selling than buying.

The shortage of rental properties is dire. Most postcodes across Australia now have vacancy rates below 1% and many are closer to zero than 1%.

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Anyone who makes a rental property available and stages an open house will have queues of applicants and people offering more than the asking rental.

That&rsquo;s why rents are rising. Those who react to the symptoms rather than the causes are calling for controls on rents, but that will make the problem worse, by further deterring investors who are an essential part of this equation.

Placing a cap of rentals is no help to desperate individuals and families who can&rsquo;t find a rental property at any price.

When it comes to building new homes, in desirable locations, there are crippling shortages of everything that forms part of the process. The first issue is getting your foot on a block of land. In many places, everything has been sold and it takes time for developers to create new supply of land that&rsquo;s ready to be sold.

If you do have a block of land with your name on it, the next issue is trying to find a builder who&rsquo;s not booked out for the next year or more.

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If you have a builder, it&rsquo;s highly likely they can&rsquo;t do the job any time soon because they can&rsquo;t get steel or timber or bricks. Supply chains have been disrupted by the heavy demand and by the pandemic.

This means the cost of building your home is rising by the week. A lot.

If you&#39;re fortunate enough to have a fixed price contract locked in, your builder has a massive problem because they may be forced to build the home at a significant loss because their costs are going through the roof, pun intended.

Having the cost and completion date locked into a contract is worth little if your builder goes broke in mid-project.

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Who caused this shemozzle? The idiot politicians who patted themselves on the back for bringing in the HomeBuilder handout, but didn&#39;t bother to consider the impact that would have on supply chains.

This has become a big problem for everyone in the market &ndash; consumers, builders, suppliers, selling agents, buyers&rsquo; agents, everyone.

It&rsquo;s all part of a dynamic mix of factors that is forcing up the price of real estate almost everywhere in Australia.

Multiple factors are driving our real estate markets, but it can all be distilled down to this: we have shortages of everything



Shortages of listings, rentals and approvals driving the property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

It&rsquo;s time we stopped treating first-home buyers as a protected species and considered the importance of other cohorts in the housing market.

It&rsquo;s become a kneejerk response in mainstream media to cry outrage whenever property prices rise, with concern for first-timers as the justification for strident headlines.

Media seems to never tire of the &ldquo;young Aussies have been priced out of the market&rdquo; storylines. I have a database of articles going back decades showing that this theme has been bashed by media constantly over the years.

The current claims that young adults are doomed to lifetime of renting are a replay of the headlines from last month, last year, two years ago, five years ago, 10 years ago and indeed 20 years ago.

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Were they justified and accurate, the past 18 months would not occurred. Over the past year and a half, we&rsquo;ve seen record buying activity by first-home buyers.

The spectacular price growth seen in that period has been driven, not by investors, but by first-home buyers and other owner-occupier buyers. Helped by a high level of government assistance, they have pumped up demand at a time of low supply, hence the big price rises.

Rising prices make it harder for first-timers to get into their local markets, but otherwise there&rsquo;s never been a time when they&rsquo;ve had so much in their favour.

There are multiple federal and state schemes provided easy access to finance, cash hand-outs and special concessions on costs like stamp duty. The low level of mortgage rates is a bonus.

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Australia is already doing all that it needs to do to smooth the path for budding young buyers.

Beyond that, how about some consideration for other types of buyers.

What about second-time buyers? Consider this scenario: a young couple buys a small apartment as their first home &ndash; it&rsquo;s affordable, well located and suits their lifestyle.

Then they decide to start a family and they need to upgrade to a larger dwelling. For most, this means selling the existing home and buying something more appropriate.

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They&rsquo;re still young, aspirational Aussies seeking to navigate the property minefield of high competition, low supply, rising prices and prohibitive buying/selling costs. But what assistance does this country offer them? The answer is: nothing.

Once they&rsquo;ve bought that first home, they cease to be worthy of consideration or assistance. They&rsquo;re on their own.

So, what about down-sizers? Older Australians rattling around in the family home, with the kids grown and out in the world. The family home is now inappropriate to their needs &ndash; it&rsquo;s too big and it costs time, energy and money to maintain. Ideally, that older couple or individual would like to downsize &ndash; sell the big house and buy a comfortable low-maintenance apartment perhaps.

Many older Australians would like to take that step and we keep hearing politicians encouraging them to do so, to free up those big homes for young families.

But many don&rsquo;t take that step. Why not? Because the costs are prohibitive.

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Selling a home and buying another can easily cost $50,000, $100,000 or more in stamp duty, agents&rsquo; commissions, legal fees, relocation costs and more. When you&rsquo;re retired or approaching retirement, those costs are deal-breakers.

I&rsquo;ve considered making the downsizing decision myself. I won&rsquo;t be doing it any time soon because the costs are ridiculous.

Politicians urge older Australians to make this move, but how much assistance is provided by them in terms of easing the cost burdens? Exactly zero.

And how about some incentives for investors to get active in the market. We have a chronic shortage of rental properties in most locations across Australia because of a series of measures by politicians and bureaucrats over the past 5-6 years that have massively discouraged investors. Australia needs to change course and encourage investors to buy homes and make them available for rent.

We don&rsquo;t need to stop the world and reorganise how our markets work because potential first-home buyers are having a whinge about how tough things are for them. They already have huge levels of government assistance available to them.

Rather, we should be considering ways to help other cohorts in the housing markets who are equally worthy of assistance. 
&nbsp;

It’s become a kneejerk response in mainstream media to cry outrage whenever property prices rise, with concern for first-timers as the justification for strident headlines

The first home buyer conundrum and why other buyer segments matter: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OPINION

The average punter will never let the facts get in the way of a cherished belief.

This is why Australian real estate abounds with myths and misconceptions to which people cling, regardless of the evidence.

Last week I wrote about the belief held by many people about the importance of being close to the CBD to get the best capital growth. There&rsquo;s copious data proving that&rsquo;s a major piece of nonsense, but some will never reject that sacred cow.

Here are some others &hellip;

It&rsquo;s all about interest rates

Another myth that pops up daily in mainstream media is the child-like notion (held primarily by economists who have child-like knowledge of real estate) that the fundamental driver of real estate prices in the level of interest rates.

In many ways this is the last refuge of scoundrels who wish to appear informed about the property market when in reality they know very little. When asked a question about real estate, the standard response is &ldquo;record low interest rates&rdquo;. It&rsquo;s a convenient way to avoid meaningful analysis.

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Here&rsquo;s what passes for analysis for most economists seeking to explain real estate trends: if event A coincides with event B, then event A must have caused event B.

So if cheap finance coincides with rapidly rising prices, then that must be the cause. It overlooks the absence of growth in late 2019, also a time of record interest rates, and in the first half of 2020.

There was the same response when Sydney and Melbourne were having their boom from 2013 to 2017. The standard explanation was &ldquo;record low interest rates&rdquo;. Proponents of that theory were unable to explain why prices were falling in Perth and Darwin and stagnating in Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide. Nor did record low interest rates explain the subsequent decline in prices in Sydney and Melbourne after 2017, including the early part of 2020.

The theory also fails to explain how Australia managed spectacular property booms during an environment of very high and rising interest rates in the late 1980s and early 2000s.

I suspect real estate dynamics are too complex for the average economist to comprehend. Remember, these were the people who were predicting, 12-15 months ago, a major collapse in property prices (at a time of record low interest rates).

It&rsquo;s a bad time to sell because it&rsquo;s winter

Here&rsquo;s another myth that&rsquo;s currently doing the rounds, as people try to explain why there are relatively few properties for sale at a time of feverish buyer demand.

According to media reports, home-owners aren&rsquo;t listing because it&rsquo;s winter and winter is a bad time to sell property. They&rsquo;re waiting until spring because that, apparently, is the best time to sell.

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It beggars belief that anyone would believe that real estate fortunes are dictated by the seasons.

Here&rsquo;s the fundamental truth: the best time to sell is when there are lots of enthusiastic buyers competing for relatively few properties, with prices rising rapidly &ndash; i.e. right now. It has nothing to do with the seasons.

Somehow, the real estate industry has managed to convince the market that spring is the best time to sell. The same agents claim spring is also the best time to buy. Both cannot be true.

It&rsquo;s all about population growth

Another popular myth is that the fundamental driver of property prices is population growth. I could spend a long time dispelling this furphy, but suffice to ask this question: how is it that Sydney house prices are rising so fast (9.5% in the June Quarter and 18.5% in the first six months of the year, according to one source) at a time when the population data is negative for Sydney.

Sydney continues to lose population to internal migration (the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend that&rsquo;s been under way for several years) and its main source of population growth, overseas migration, has been blocked by our closed borders.

Sydney&rsquo;s losing population but its property prices are rocketing. The same is true for Melbourne, despite everything that has afflicted that city in the past year or so.

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A catalyst for this column was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age (both prime sources of real estate misinformation) which claimed to present &ldquo;The top 5 reasons&rdquo; why house prices are rising. It rolled out the usual cliches &ndash; low interest rates, population growth, tax policies, etc &ndash; none of which in any way explains the past 6-12 months in Australian real estate.

Month-to-month price movements matter

You can be sure we&rsquo;re in the midst of a spectacular real estate up-cycle when media characterises a 2.1% rise in house prices in a single month as &ldquo;a loss of momentum&rdquo;.

The media coverage resulting from CoreLogic&rsquo;s report on June price trends claimed the market is losing momentum &ndash; because the monthly growth in dwelling values was slightly less than the previous month. There were headlines across the nation claiming that the market was running out of puff.

It&rsquo;s worth noting that the same happened in early May, because the average rise in values in April was slightly lower than March. This inspired headlines declaring that the boom was over. But then the May figures showed another big growth spurt.

Now the June figures are down (slightly) on May, therefore the market is apparently losing momentum.

Specialist real estate analysts with experience know it&rsquo;s a mistake to make big assumptions based on month-to-month price movements. It&rsquo;s too short a time frame for meaningful trends to become apparent. The monthly movements are often erratic.

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The longer-term data is more reliable and meaningful. In the June Quarter, every capital city except Perth increased their house prices by 4.9% or more. The regional markets of NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory all rose by at least 5.5%. The national average for the quarter was a rise of 6.7%.

In the first six months of 2021, all capital cities grew 10% of more &ndash; except Perth, which increased &ldquo;only&rdquo; 7.3% in the first half of the year. The national average was a rise of 13.6%.

The figures suggests that there continues to be serious momentum in markets around Australia, driven by multiple strong factors.

The average punter will never let the facts get in the way of a cherished belief

Real estate myths and misconceptions: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

It&rsquo;s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

Long before the pandemic and its impact on the Central Business Districts of our major cities, the relevance of the CBD in choosing where to live or invest was diminishing year by year.

The fallacy persists that most people work in the CBD. The reality is that, in all our capital cities, the vast majority work in suburban employment nodes.

There are, for example, over 2.1 million people employed in the Greater Melbourne area, but only about 20% work in the City of Melbourne (the CBD and near-city suburbs).

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For most people, when it comes to choosing a place to live, the CBD is irrelevant.

They don&rsquo;t work there, they don&rsquo;t shop there and their kids don&rsquo;t go to school there.

The average person has little reason to ever visit a CBD, although they may occasionally go to a CBD for entertainment or leisure.

But I still have people regularly raising, as an objection to a particular location, that it&rsquo;s a long way from the CBD.

Like many myths in real estate, this one just refuses to die.

In Sydney, the suburbs closest to the CBD are greatly under-valued, with median house prices well under $2 million (which is miserable by Sydney standards), like Redfern ($1.45 million), Newtown ($1.42 million), Glebe ($1.7 million) and Camperdown ($1.6 million).

The most prestigious suburbs, the ones with median prices above $3 million, are in many cases a long way from the tall office buildings &ndash; suburbs like Cremorne, Killara, Lindfield and Manly.

The Sydney locations with the best long-term capital growth rates, those where price growth has averaged more than 8% per year over the past decade, include many which a great distance from the Sydney CBD.

They include humble suburbs a long, long way from the City, like &hellip;

<ul>
	<li>St Marys out at Penrith,</li>
	<li>Minto and Macquarie Fields in the far south-west,</li>
	<li>Parramatta and North Parramatta,</li>
	<li>Marsden Park out near Blacktown,</li>
	<li>Middleton Grange in the precinct around Liverpool,</li>
	<li>Smithfield in the Cumberland LGA,</li>
	<li>Canley Vale in the Fairfield LGA,</li>
	<li>Kogarah in the Georges River LGA</li>
</ul>

They also include Northern Beaches suburbs like Seaforth, Avalon Beach and Dee Why, as well as north-of-the-harbour locales like Cremorne, Lindfield, North Willoughby and West Ryde.

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In Melbourne, if you want to find superior capital growth over time, you need to head a long way from the City centre, in most cases.

The greatest concentration of suburbs with long-term growth averages above 7% per year in the Greater Melbourne area is the Mornington Peninsula, where Bittern, Mt Martha, Tootgarook and Sorrento all have outstanding growth records.

The distance between Sorrento and the Melbourne CBD is over 100km, around an hour and a half by car. The median house price for Sorrento has risen almost 30% in the past 12 months. Nearby Tootgarook is a lot less expensive, despite a 20% rise in the median price in the past year.

Only slightly closer to the tall buildings is the new development suburb of Clyde North in the City of Casey, with a long-term growth rate close to 9% per year.

The suburb of Williams Landing down in Wyndham City in the far south-west also has a long-term growth rate above 8% per year &ndash; as does the suburb of Mickleham in the City of Hume in the far north of the Melbourne metro area.

Middle-ring areas with great growth rates include Box Hill, Brunswick East and Derrimut.

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All those places out-perform Toorak, Elwood, Elsternwick, Glen Iris, Kew and Malvern on capital growth rates.

Upmarket near-city locations which have outstanding growth rates &ndash; these are the exceptions rather than the norms &ndash; include Hawthorn, South Yarra and South Melbourne.

The key message is that the elements that drive values higher, because they attract buyers in large numbers, include affordability, infrastructure and lifestyle. Proximity to the CBD doesn&rsquo;t feature prominently.

So, if you&rsquo;re a home buyer or investor with a budget that forces you to buy in middle or outer ring areas, don&rsquo;t worry about it. There are way bigger things it&rsquo;s good to be close to, other than the CBD.

It’s long overdue for real estate consumers to let go of the notion that proximity to the CBD matters.

Nothing wrong with buying property away from the CBD: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

The most predictable thing in real estate is the outrage that emerges from some sections of the community whenever dwelling prices rise. Equally predictable is the willingness of mainstream media to indulge the disaffected few 
who think politicians and bureaucrats should be taking action to stop the markets doing what they naturally do.

There was considerable media coverage last week of a &ldquo;report&rdquo; from the University of New South Wales which called for &ldquo;the immediate creation of a Royal Commission&rdquo; because rising prices constitute a national crisis and young Aussies are &ldquo;locked out of the market&rdquo;.

One headline based on this report declared: &ldquo;House prices a time bomb ready to erupt in the absence of immediate intervention&rdquo;.

The lead author was someone smart enough to attain the title of &ldquo;professor&rdquo; but not clever enough to understand the dynamics of real estate markets.

Here&rsquo;s one quote that demonstrates how little the report author knows:

&ldquo;Rampant price growth has&nbsp;returned to the&nbsp;larger cities&nbsp;and is now&nbsp;spreading to&nbsp;regional Australia. This&nbsp;is&nbsp;in&nbsp;part&nbsp;due to the pandemic-fueled work-from-home revolution&nbsp;but&nbsp;is&nbsp;also because so many younger Australians can no longer afford the life they want as homeowners in the larger cities.&rdquo;

There are several errors in that one short paragraph, which would tend to destroy the credibility of the commentator:

1. Price growth did not start with the big cities and spread to the regions &ndash; it&rsquo;s been the opposite. The regions have been leading on price growth for some time, alongside some of the smaller cities - and the big cities, notably Melbourne, have belatedly joined the party.

2. The work-from-home revolution is not an outcome of the pandemic. It&rsquo;s been under way for several years and has been fueled by technology and people&rsquo;s desire for a better lifestyle. Sydney has been losing population to internal migration for the past decade and Melbourne for the past four years. This is one reason why regional markets have been leading on price growth. The pandemic has provided further impetus to this trend but it certainly did not create it.

3. The statement that young people can&rsquo;t afford to live in the big cities has been plucked by the professor out of his fundamental orifice. First-home buyers have been in the market in record numbers of the past 12 months, boosted by federal and state stimulus measures, and have been buying in Sydney and Melbourne as much as anywhere else. They have been leading the market and have been prime instigators of the price rises.

But, in one sense, having a major parliamentary inquiry would be a great idea because it&rsquo;s a sure way to ensure that nothing fundamental will change. Royal Commissions can take years to produce a report and will provide photo opportunities for politicians, but real action is unlikely to result. Watch a few episodes of Yes Minister to see how it works.

We&rsquo;ve had inquiries into the housing market in the past. The most recent federal parliamentary shallow dive into housing affordability spent quite some time giving the appearance of being serious about solving the affordability issue, before taking the easy way out by scapegoating an unpopular minority, foreign investors.

This gave governments a licence to slug overseas buyers with new taxes and charges, providing a new revenue source, while changing nothing that mattered. Affordability did not improve because foreign investors would never the problem. Nor are negatively-geared Australian investors, the other popular choice by the disaffected minority to shoulder the blame for rising property prices.

The reality is that we&rsquo;ve had exceptional price growth over the past year or so, without any major involvement from investors, who collectively have been sitting on the fence for the past three or so years. They&rsquo;re only now starting to come into the market.

Investors never lead market cycles &ndash; they react to them, as they are right now. Those calling for a Royal Commission into the housing market are essentially demanding an inquiry into human behaviour.

If people behaved sensibly and rationally - and did real research to develop real knowledge of real estate - we wouldn&rsquo;t have the nationwide market upheavals we have every 15 or 20 years, including right now. Prices are rising at extraordinary speed because most people are essentially herd animals. They&rsquo;re diving feverishly into the market because everyone else is, not because their actions make sense.

But it&rsquo;s not supposed to make sense, any more than the startling highs and lows of the share market make any real sense. The smart people were buying 9-12 months ago, well ahead of the current frenzy, because they were informed and could see what was coming.

But most just follow the pack and right now the herd is stampeding. Prices are rising rapidly, but for many of our major markets it&rsquo;s the first real growth they&rsquo;ve shown in 5-10 years. Perth and Darwin last had a market peak in 2013 and have been in decline ever since. Now, at last, those cities are delivering some value growth to the long-suffering majority who own their homes &ndash; but self-absorbed Sydney academics would like to rob them of their long-overdue time in the sun.

Similarly, cities like Brisbane and Adelaide have been stagnating for much of the past decade. It&rsquo;s not a crisis for home-owners, including those who had the foresight to buy recently, that values are at last showing some growth. The real crisis in the housing market, and the one that truly does need government action, is the chronic shortage of rental properties.

The solution to this problem is to encourage property investors to do what property investors essentially do, which is create a pool of homes available for rental. That means we want them to be out there buying properties in large numbers.

The New Zealand Government recently had a major brain explosion and essentially wiped investors out of the market by scrapping tax benefits. This compounded the earlier decision to ban foreign investors. The outcome has been a shortage of rental properties even worse than Australia&rsquo;s. Australia risks making the same mistakes, if the politicians listen to misinformed academics.

Those calling for a Royal Commission into the housing market are essentially demanding an inquiry into human behaviour.

Why we don't need a Royal Commission in to surging house prices: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Price growth in the early part of 2021 has been beyond impressive in many locations across Australia - it&rsquo;s been exponential.

Every three months, Hotspotting analyses sales activity and prices for every suburb and town in the nation, for the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index.

In updating the median prices for each location, it&rsquo;s impossible to avoid the conclusion that something extraordinary has been happening in many of our property markets.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling. At Bondi Beach in Sydney, the median house price three months ago was $2,820,000. Now it&rsquo;s $3,100,000. That&rsquo;s an increase of $280,000 in just three months.

At Noosa Heads in Queensland, the median house price has risen from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, an increase of $250,000 - 22% - in three months. And at Byron Bay, the median house price has gone from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000. 
 
It&rsquo;s happening also in some of the nation&rsquo;s apartment markets. In Kogarah in Sydney, the median unit price has risen from $685,000 to $785,000, a rise 15% in three months, while the median unit price in Rose Bay has increased $125,000, St Ives is up $100,000 and Lindfield $125,000 in that time frame.

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Here are some Sydney examples of median price rises over the past 3 months:

<ul>
	<li>Lindfield, houses up from $2,750,000 to $3,120,000, units up from $1,200,000 to $1,325,000.</li>
	<li>Bronte, houses up from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000.</li>
	<li>Cremorne, houses from $2,800,000 to $3,000,000, units from $1,125,000 to $1,170,000.</li>
	<li>Croydon, houses from $1,570,000 to $1,770,000.</li>
	<li>Kogarah, houses from $1,305,000 to $1,405,000, units from $685,000 to $785,000.</li>
	<li>Fairlight, units from $1,425,000 to $1,560,000.</li>
	<li>Freshwater, houses from $2,480,000 to $2,660,000, units from $890,000 to $940,000.</li>
	<li>Kensington, houses from $2,445,000 to $2,680,000.</li>
	<li>Granville, houses from $730,000 to $805,000.</li>
	<li>Coogee, houses from $2,900,000 to $3,125,000.</li>
	<li>Kirrawee, units from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
	<li>Jannali, units from $665,000 to $730,000.</li>
	<li>Canley Vale, houses from $810,000 to $880,000.</li>
	<li>Collaroy, houses from $2,400,000 to $2,580,000, units from $875,000 to $905,000.</li>
	<li>Naremburn, houses from $2,280,000 to $2,620,000.</li>
	<li>North Sydney, units from $945,000 to $1,025,000.</li>
	<li>Rose Bay, houses from $3,810,000 to $3,960,000, units from $1,475,000 to $1,600,000.</li>
	<li>Woolloomooloo, units from $935,000 to $1,280,000.</li>
	<li>Seaforth, houses from $2,690,000 to $2,895,000.</li>
	<li>St Ives, houses from $2,040,000 to $2,175,000, units from $1,020,000 to $1,120,000.</li>
</ul>

Examples of median price rises in Regional Queensland include these:

<ul>
	<li>Minyama, houses up from $1,315,000 to $1,400,000.</li>
	<li>Mudjimba, houses from $770,000 to $845,000, units from $445,000 to $485,000.</li>
	<li>Noosa Heads, houses from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, units from $905,000 to $960,000.</li>
	<li>Maleny, houses from $675,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Mermaid Beach, houses from $1,350,000 to $1,440,000, units from $440,000 to $475,000.</li>
	<li>Burleigh Waters, houses from $820,000 to $870,000, units from $415,000 to $465,000.</li>
	<li>Palm Cove Cairns, houses from $670,000 to $745,000, units from $265,000 to $310,000.</li>
</ul>

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And examples from Regional NSW include these:

<ul>
	<li>Wentworth Falls, houses up from $675,000 to $770,000.</li>
	<li>Byron Bay, houses from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000.</li>
	<li>Gerringong, houses from $890,000 to $995,000.</li>
	<li>Kiama, houses from $980,000 to $1,050,000, units from $630,000 to $680,000.</li>
	<li>Kingscliff, houses from $1,165,000 to $1,240,000 and units from $620,000 to $690,000.</li>
	<li>Merimbula, houses from $625,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Yamba, houses from $590,000 to $670,000, units from $450,000 to $510,000.</li>
	<li>Albury, houses from $550,000 to $605,000.</li>
	<li>Moss Vale, houses from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
</ul>

There are thousands of other similar scenarios from the various markets across Australia.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling across Sydney

Property price growth has been beyond impressive across Sydney: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

OPINION

Some people will kill for a bit of free publicity. The first thing to be murdered is the truth, in the quest for cheap limelight.

In real estate, a perennial favourite among those who seek media profile is the affordability crisis. This is a ripper yarn because it tugs at the tear ducts of all Australians whose hearts bleed for desperate young couples who can&rsquo;t afford to buy a home.

It&rsquo;s rubbish, of course, but the truth is always optional in these kinds of storylines.

First, here&rsquo;s the reality. The past year has been the best time ever to be a first-home buyer in Australia. The level of government assistance has never been higher and the cost of finance has never been lower. And investors have been fence-sitting so first-timers haven&rsquo;t had a lot of competition.

And young home-buyers have responded in record numbers.

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Yet, despite all of that, there are organisations who have managed to construct a scenario where no one can afford to buy or that prospective first-timers have to save for 10 or 12 years to cobble together a deposit for a meagre dwelling.

Here are some recent headlines from mainstream media:-

- &ldquo;Policy failures see houses become unattainable for young Australians&rdquo;

- &ldquo;Australian housing affordability worsens amid fears proposed safe lending laws repeal will lead to debt disaster&rdquo;

- &ldquo;Tensions in housing market as affordability worsens&rdquo;

- &ldquo;First home buyers take 10 years to save for a deposit&rdquo;

- &ldquo;From down payment to dealbreaker: Average house deposit now exceeds 100k&rdquo;

Those last two screamers are the biggest lies.

How do they concoct such scenarios, at a time when FHBs are out there buying in such large numbers?

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Very easily, so as long as you&rsquo;re not bothered by a conscience. You simply create a formula in which every component is a work a fiction.

Here&rsquo;s the proposition they put forward:-

- How long does it take the average young couple on typical incomes to save a 20% deposit to buy the median-priced house in Sydney?

It&rsquo;s difficult to imagine a scenario more distant from the reality of most FHBs across the nation.

Here&rsquo;s why &hellip;

- They stipulate a 20% deposit. Nobody saves a 20% deposit. You don&rsquo;t need to. You can currently get into a first home with a 5% deposit without having to pay mortgage insurance.

- First-home buyers don&rsquo;t buy median-priced properties, not in Sydney or anywhere else. They buy in the lower price ranges.

- Why houses? Many young Australians prefer apartments and not just because they&rsquo;re much cheaper. Why do these fictitious scenarios never insert apartments into the equation?

- Why this focus on our most expensive? Why not Brisbane or Perth or Adelaide?

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So here&rsquo;s a realistic equation to give a true appraisal of the prospects for young buyers: how long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price quartiles in Brisbane?

Or how long does it take to save the required deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or Perth or Hobart?

Or, given the predominate trend in Australian real estate, how long to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in Orange or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast or Bendigo or Geelong?

Those are scenarios that equate to the reality faced by most prospective first-home buyers.

But you will never see that equation presented in mainstream media, because it doesn&rsquo;t serve the desired outcome: a screaming negative headline, with the truth optional.

Are first home buyers really priced out of the property market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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OPINION

The exodus to an affordable lifestyle has become the dominant trend in Australian real estate across the nation. 

But many people believe - mistakenly – that this means that Australians are moving en-masse to the beach. 

This speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of what is meant by the term “lifestyle”.

The reality is that the “lifestyle” means different things to different people – and, as a consequence, Australians are not just moving to the coast. 

Australians are moving in large numbers from the largest cities to some of the smaller capital cities and also to regional areas inland.

Brisbane, Hobart, Darwin, Adelaide – our smaller capital cities are gaining population from this trend, as are inland regional centres like Orange, Tamworth, Goulburn, Wagga Wagga, Mudgee, Toowoomba, Gympie, Ballarat, Bendigo and Mildura.

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So while coastal locations like the Central Coast in New South Wales and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland have been major beneficiaries, many of the locations getting the biggest uplift are hours away from the nearest beach.

The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend really started with people moving from Melbourne to regional centres in Victoria. This trend has been under way for at least the past 3-4 years.

Many of the suburbs of Ballarat have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year, with Soldiers Hill up 18% and Buninyong rising 22%. Virtually every suburb of Bendigo has grown more than 10% in the past year, with many of them rising by between 15% and 20%.

Several hours from Melbourne, Warrnambool is up 13% in 12 months, Shepparton has grown 11% and Mildura is up 10%.

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The trend is also seen large numbers of Sydney residents moving to regional areas of New South Wales and to other parts of Australia.

In various parts of regional NSW, median house prices have risen 13% in Orange, 20% in Bowral, 12% in Parkes,11% in Mudgee and above 15% in some suburbs of Wagga Wagga.

All these places have rising prices on the back of a big uplift in sales activity, boosted by demand from major cities.

The population data shows that Sydney has been losing population to internal migration for the past 10 years and that Melbourne has also been losing population through people moving to other parts Australia for at least the past three years.

Clearly, in many cases, the relocation of people has not been to the coast but to regional cities and towns inland.

This is because “lifestyle” can mean living in a town where there is a strong sense of community or living in a place where there are no traffic lights and you can get a park in the main street.

People value the safety and security available in regional centres. These places are often seen as good places to raise a family. Many regional centres have good schools, including private schools, and all the facilities and amenities that families need to lead comfortable and fulfilling lives.

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I live in a hill change town in Queensland where the median house price has risen 22% in the past year, because it’s a perfect fit the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend.

This location is not about beaches, although they’re only 30 minutes away. It’s about green hills, clean air, a strong sense of community, safety, access to good schools and ease of parking (although it’s getting harder). There are no traffic lights in this town.

It’s a strong area for arts and crafts, has a great music scene and there are lots of good places to eat. I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else. Lifestyle.

And I work from a home office. As a researcher and writer, I have no need to be in the big, expensive, congested capital cities, apart from the occasional visit to meet clients or speak at a seminar.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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Exodus to affordable lifestyle not just moving to the beach: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

One of the greatest causes of confusion for real estate consumers is the way research companies compile data on prices - and the way media outlets report the results of that research.

Media tends to report price information from each individual research firm as fact, without making any reference to the reality that it’s simply one firm’s view of the situation, based on their individual methodology.

Media will report, for example, that Canberra house prices have increased 14% in the past year. Fact. Because CoreLogic has published a press release saying this is the case. And therefore the Canberra market is booming

But the latest figures from the ABS claim that Canberra house prices have increased around 6% over 12 months. Therefore, the Canberra market is showing solid growth but you wouldn’t classify that as a boom.

But, wait. The latest data from SQM Research suggests that Canberra house prices are up just 0.4% in the past year. According to those figures, the Canberra market is hardly moving at all.

So Canberra is either stagnating, rising moderately or booming, depending on which research source you use.

But mainstream media doesn’t reveal that to real estate consumers. It reports each data release from sources such as Domain, CoreLogic, the ABS and SQM Research as gospel. 

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And then publishes commentary pieces making all kinds of assumptions and conclusions based on the premise that the published figures are fact. 

For example, “Canberra houses are growing beyond the reach of many buyers, with prices up 14% in the past 12 months”. That’s based on CoreLogic data. But other sources disagree, including one that says Canberra prices haven’t moved at all in the past year.

I’ve put together a compilation of the latest price growth figures from three different sources – SQM, the ABS and CoreLogic - which shows the annual percentage growth in house prices and apartment prices in each of the capital cities.

According to two sources, Sydney apartment prices overall have shown small growth in the past year, but the third source suggests prices are still down 5%.

Melbourne house prices, in annual terms, are recovering and starting to grow again, according to two sources, but are still down based on the data published by the third source.

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According to CoreLogic, Darwin is leading the nation on growth in its house prices, up 16% in the past year. But the ABS and SQM Research record annual rises of 2-3%, well below the levels of other cities.

SQM claims Darwin apartment prices are up almost 20% in the past year, but CoreLogic says the growth is around 10% and the ABS says it’s just 1.1%.

Mainstream media never highlights these discrepancies, but simply reports each new set of figures as a fact.

There are many reasons why these anomalies in the price data occur. 

You might think that the question of whether prices are rising or not, or by how much, is a matter of fact.

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But it isn’t. Each research entity has its own individual methodology and parameters. There are also different time frames involved: the latest data from the ABS is up to the end of 2020, while the CoreLogic figures are up to the end of March 2021 and the SQM figures extend into the current month.

But the biggest problem is that the research firms are attempting the impossible. They’re seeking to distil all the thousands of property transactions in a city as large of Sydney down to a single figure, which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% or 5.3% or 2.5%. 

What’s happening in Bondi is very different to Penrith, and Vaucluse sits in stark contrast to Blacktown. They’re putting sales in suburbs where typical houses cost $5 million into the same melting pot as locations where the average home is $650,000 and expecting it to deliver a meaningful figure for “Sydney houses”.

According to the latest CoreLogic data, the annual growth in median houses in specific suburbs is as follows:-

Manly up 2.5%

Burwood down 8.8%

Cronulla up 21.3%

Blacktown up 7.1%

Rose Bay down 7.2%

Kensington up 3%

Kellyville up 13.2%

Gordon up 9.2%

Mt Druitt up 5%

Vaucluse up 2.5%

Putting all those differences, and hundreds of others, into the algorithm delivers a result which says Sydney house prices have risen 7.7% in the past year.

Fact.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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