Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

Joel Robinson

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The busiest markets in Australia are the cities and towns where Covid-19 is contained and life is relatively unrestricted – apart from the border closures, of course.
The busiest markets also include those where first-home buyers are the most active cohort, boosted by high levels of government help and low levels of interest rates.
And the busiest markets also include those where vacancies are ultra-low and there is upward pressure on rents – a situation that usually translates into rising prices.
One city has all three of those trends highly prominent right now. That city is Perth.
The Perth market has shown greater resistance to the pandemic impact than most Australian markets in terms of sales activity.
And its market is now pumping strongly, led by first-home buyers.
A standout feature is that many of the precincts with the best performance are at the affordable end of the market, reflecting the reality that first-home buyers are a major force in the market at present, more so than investors.
This trend has been enhanced by the Federal Government’s HomeBuilder grant, which has inspired people to buy residential land to build new homes.
The data shows major increases in Perth residential sales in July, for houses and especially for residential land.
Sales overall in Perth rose 68% in July, compared to April, while sales of residential land increased 121% - in other words, land sales more than doubled.
Perth has become the most affordable of the Australian capital cities – so it’s a great time to be buying there as a first-home buyer – and as an investor.
A further boost to the case for Perth comes from renowned demographer and author Bernard Salt. He says Perth is “the right place for the moment” and predicts the Perth property market will boom for the next several years.
Salt is the author of five books, including The Big Shift and Man Drought, and a columnist for The Australian and Herald Sun. He was awarded the Order of Australia in the 2017 Australia Day Honours and is the Chair of the Tourism Forecasting Committee at Tourism Australia.
He says WA’s successful management of the pandemic, emerging growth economy and the growing trend towards working from home are all factors pointing towards a new boom in the Perth property market.
“Perth is the right place for the moment,” he says. “It all augurs well for the confidence level in the property market in Perth.”
He suggests that Perth’s new property boom will endure throughout “the first half of the 2020s”.
Certainly, Perth is due. Indeed, overdue. It’s been on the cusp of revival a couple of times recently before speed bumps appeared (in early 2019 the banking royal commission and the looming federal election – and in early 2020 the onset of the pandemic).
But the gathering forces are building a perfect storm for the next Perth up-cycle.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Perth is set for a property market boom: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Markets will little or nothing available for rent have become one of the most compelling stories in Australian real estate.
Vacancy rates under 1.5% are now common all over Australia and property managers with a new rental listing are finding dozens of candidates showing up to compete for the property.
Every day I’m having conversations with real estate professionals of various types – buyers agents, valuers, selling agents, property managers and developers, as well as everyday consumers – and I’m hearing the same stories from locations in every state and territory. There’s little or nothing available for rent and it’s putting serious upward pressure on rents.
Scott Mitchell runs Mitchells Realty in Queensland’s Hervey Bay. It’s a pretty good place to have a real estate agency at the moment because Hervey Bay is a good fit with one of the nation’s biggest trends – the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle.
You can buy houses for around $300,000-350,000 and walk to the beach, where you’re looking across at stunning Fraser Island. Or, if you’re an investor, you can get rental returns on houses in the 5.5% to 6% range.
Right now the region’s vacancy rate is about 1%. Mitchell says a local property manager recently offered a place to rent and over 40 people showed up to compete for the tenancy. “They were queued up at the front of the house and I’ve never seen that in Hervey Bay before,” Mitchell says.
I’m hearing stories like that from professionals and investors around Australia. And this anecdotal evidence is supported by the data on vacancies and rents.
In the growth city of Gympie, just up the road from the Sunshine Coast, the vacancy rate is 0.6%.
In Bendigo in Victoria, most postcodes have vacancy rates below 0.5% (and most suburbs have had median house price growth between 8% and 15% in the past 12 months). It’s a similar story in Ballarat.
In Albury-Wodonga at the NSW-Victoria border, all of the local postcodes have vacancies under 1%, including two which are just 0.2% and one where vacancies are listed as zero.
Orange west of Sydney has a vacancy rate of 0.4%.
In Adelaide, the overall vacancy rate is below 1% and that’s common right across the South Australian capital. It’s similar across metropolitan Perth and in Hobart, Darwin and Canberra.
Hobart’s vacancy rate has been below 1% for years and is currently 0.7%.
Where are the investors? Mostly they’re sitting at home reading about how high the vacancies are in the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs and how rents are plummeting (to use a word beloved by journalists) in the two biggest cities. And being spooked by that and other media misinformation.
Your average punter isn’t well-informed and is essentially a herd animal. He or she thinks reading big city newspapers is research, when in reality it’s the antithesis of research – it’s the gathering of myths and misinformation and the absorption of negative vibes from journalists for whom the glass is always half empty or completely empty.
There are exceptions, of course, and investors with their radar attuned to opportunity are out there busily competing with first-home buyers and other owner-occupier consumers in places like Adelaide, Perth, Canberra, Brisbane and dozens of strong regional markets across the nation.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Vacancy rates under 1.5% now common all over Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Vacancy rates are the most under-rated and under-reported of all the parameters that chart real estate markets.
Mainstream media is obsessed with short-term movements in median prices, which comprise a very blunt instrument for measuring property trends.
Among their many faults is that they are rubbery figures prone to all kinds of vagaries (observe the different figures from different sources about the same markets) and that their significance is often misinterpreted by writers who don’t understand real estate (most of them).
But their biggest weakness is that they describe the past when real estate consumers mostly want to know about the future of prices.
There are some tools that can provide a clue to the future movement of prices – one of them is sales volumes and another is vacancy rates.
Here’s a simplistic view of why they matter. If vacancies are low, rents will rise. And when rents rise, prices follow. It works in reverse as well: locations with high vacancies seldom deliver price growth.
So this makes trends with vacancy rates really important. And the recent trends suggest rising rents and ultimately prices in many locations around Australia.
This is an important thing to know. So why aren’t you reading about it in mainstream media? Because there are few journalists out there in the wacky world of media who know anything about real estate. They’re people who recycle press releases, invariably with an emphasis on the negative.
The reality is that vacancy rates are a remarkably positive story in Australia right now.
The latest figures indicate that there is ongoing improvement in vacancy rates in major markets around the nation – with a few exceptions.
SQM Research’s monthly report on vacancy rates for the eight state and territory capital cities shows that, for the third month in a row, there’s been a notable improvement in vacancies.
In April the national average vacancy rate was 2.6%. In May, it improved to 2.5%. In June it fell further top 2.2%. And now, the new figure for July, is a further improvement to 2.1%.
In June, the most significant thing was that vacancies fell in all eight capital cities. And, amid the new figures out for July, vacancies fell again in seven of the eight capital cities.
In five of the eight capital cities, vacancies are now below 1.5%. That means that Hobart, Canberra, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin all have very tight rental markets.
In addition, Brisbane’s vacancy rate is 2.2%, which is also low – while Melbourne has risen slightly to be a little above 3%.
Sydney has improved but remains higher than normal at 3.6%.
I know from Hotspotting’s day-to-day research that most regional centres also have been tight rental markets. Here are some NSW examples: Dubbo 0.7% and falling, Orange 0.4% and falling, Tamworth 2% and falling.
Vacancies are below 1% in most Bendigo postcodes and trending lower; all the postcodes in Ballarat are below 2% and falling; and all the towns of the Latrobe Valley are under 1% and going down.
The latest figures from both SQM and the REIQ confirm that central Queensland towns and cities have very low vacancies and rising rentals.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
The overall outcome is that there is – overall – a shortage of rental properties across Australia, despite all the impacts of the pandemic.
As a result of the generally low vacancies, rents rose 2.2% nationally in July for houses and were unchanged for apartments, according to the SQM Research figures.
House rents rose during July in Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin.
And for apartments, rents rose during July in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin – everywhere in fact, except Sydney and Melbourne, which are the only cities with vacancies above the 3% benchmark.
It’s significant that the cities and regional areas with low vacancies are places where the pandemic, for now at least, is under control. Restrictions are relaxed, people are getting on with business and real estate markets are busy.
There is upward pressure on prices in many of these places, helped by improved confidence in all those parts of Australia that exist outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
Keep in mind that most Australians – two-thirds of them in fact – don’t live in our two biggest cities. They inhabit towns and cities where vacancies are low, rents are rising and there is upward pressure on prices.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Vacancy rates are tight across most of Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
I’ve received an email from someone expressing outrage that I’m (in his mind) encouraging people to buy real estate at a time when everything is on the point of collapse.
He lectured that he and his friends believe doomsday is pending and the smart thing is to do nothing.
I won’t name him to protect the guilty. But I think people like this sad individual are a huge part of the problem.
Here’s why this kind of attitude is both wrong and damaging.
Firstly, he’s reacting to media headlines and not to the reality. He’s not alone but anyone smart enough to read and write should know better than to react to clickbait headlines.
One of the great problems amid the pandemic is that mainstream media does not see itself as part of the solution. Most businesses have a model based on making a living by being useful to consumers. Media in Australia doesn’t exhibit any desire to be helpful to its customers – its business model is to scare the hell out of people every minute of every day. It’s an appalling business model and it explains why so many publications are failing.
Intelligent people see the headlines for what they are – a shallow pitch to induce us to click on things, fed by profile-hungry economists and others who know a sensational negative is a guarantee of free publicity.
The smartest people tune out mainstream media altogether. Idiots take it all literally. They accept nonsense like the mythical September Cliff at face value, because they lack the ability to think independently.
Secondly, he’s a poorly-informed individual who is apparently unaware that around Australia there are local economies which are thriving and people are just getting on with business – and their local property markets are pumping strongly.
A core problem is that so much of our major media emanates from Melbourne and Sydney. Melbourne is a basket case because its Premier and his government mismanaged hotel quarantine and other aspects of the pandemic, while Sydney is struggling in many ways also. Both cities have elements of their property markets where vacancies are high, rents are falling and/or prices are drifting lower.
All of that influences the tone of media coverage. But two-thirds of Australians don’t live in our two biggest cities. Most Australians live in cities and towns largely unaffected by the virus, can go about their business unimpeded and are doing generally okay.
Many local economies are pumping and their property markets are rock solid. The vast majority of locations around Australia have low vacancies and strong rental markets. Buyers are facing strong competition and prices are rising.
Canberra has recorded house price rises in all of the past five months, according to CoreLogic figures, and Adelaide has risen in four of the past five months. Most regional jurisdictions have shown similar strength over the period from March to July.
Of the nation’s 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven regional markets), 11 have house prices higher than they were at the start of the year.
If the forecasts of most economists in February-March were correct, prices would have plummeted, collapsed, nosedived and plunged (usually the language beloved by many journalists) everywhere by now.
Thirdly, Australia needs people to get off the fence and take action. It needs people to spend and it needs businesses to move forward with hope in their hearts. That’s what all those government stimulus packages are designed to encourage.
My sense is that most are doing so. I have conversations (phone, zoom, email, text messages) every day with people all over Australia and the great majority of them are bullish, busy and getting on with business. Even Melbourne people are pushing ahead as best they can in the circumstances.
Real estate markets are ticking over and people who service those markets are making money. It’s rare to encounter businesses with a negative mindset.
Fourthly, I believe the future belongs to the people who see this as a time of opportunity.
For businesses, it’s a time to innovate and find ways to do things better. In Melbourne, real estate agencies are finding ways to function while in lockdown and the early figures suggest an auction clearance rate above 70% in the latest weekend.
For first-home buyers, there’s never been a better time to take action. Interest rates are ridiculously low, lenders are competing for their business, and there has never been so much government assistance available. Some are sitting back and whinging that it’s all too hard but large numbers of young Australians are taking advantage of a never-to-be-repeated opportunity. All power to them.
For investors, there are wonderful opportunities to buy well in locations with good prospects for long term growth.
And the most important words in that sentence are “long term”. Those who understand the fundamentals of real estate investment appreciate that short-term scenarios like the pandemic impact are largely irrelevant in the overall scheme of things.
There are, of course, those sorry individuals for whom the glass is half empty. And there are some for whom the glass is completely empty.
I would say to them: You have the right to wallow in misery if that’s your preference, but don’t waste my time with your doomsday philosophy. I’m too busy getting on with it. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Never been a better time for first-home buyers to take action: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The stubborn resistance of house prices to the negative forces on the pandemic, and the economic downturn it has created, is shown by the month by month data from CoreLogic – with the latest figures published today (3 August).
An analysis of the monthly figures for the past five months covering the pandemic period shows that - generally speaking - there has been a gradual deterioration in price outcomes. Looking at the average national result, house prices were up 0.7% in March, up by a smaller amount in April, down marginally in May, down by a larger amount in June and then a similar, though slightly better, result in July.
But looking at the figures at a more local level shows that some locations have been more resilient than others. The latest figures show that half the market jurisdictions managed to produce some level of growth in their house prices during July.
The “jurisdictions” are the eight capital cities and the seven state or territory regional markets. Of those 15 jurisdictions, seven produced some level of growth in house prices in July. Remarkable in the circumstances.
Those figures illustrate a point I have making regularly in recent months: that regional markets are generally doing better than capital city markets. 
In July, five of the seven regional jurisdictions produced house price growth, compared to two of the eight capital city markets.
The figures from the past five months deliver other important messages. One is that month-to-month figures can be highly erratic and we need to be careful about placing too much significance on one month’s results.
In Darwin, for example, house prices rose in April, fell in May, rose in June and fell in July (according to the CoreLogic data - other sources have different figures).
In Hobart, house prices rose in March, fell in April, rose in May and June, then fell in July. Again, if you believe the CoreLogic figures.
Another message in the data is that we don’t have a single market in Australia. We have many different markets with different outcomes from one market to the next. 
That’s an important point because media will report that Australian property prices fell in July, when in reality there were price rises in Canberra, Adelaide and five regional jurisdictions. Again, according to these figures.
Looking at the longer-term patterns, some markets stand out for their consistency and strong resistance to the national economic forces.
Canberra has delivered some level of growth in each of the past five months. This tends to confirm our view that the national capital is the most Covid-proof city in the nation.
Adelaide has also shown great consistency, with small rises in four of the past five months, including in July. This confirms my positive opinion about the solidity of this under-rated city.
Two of the regional markets, South Australia and Tasmania, have delivered price growth in all of the past five months. And two others - NSW and Queensland - have achieved growth in four of the past five months, including during July.
Central message: prices have not collapsed anywhere and some places continue to grow.
It’s a different message to one delivered by mainstream media. One major newspaper has reacted to the latest figures with the claim that they show that house prices are “plunging” right across Australia.
Nothing of the sort is happening. 
The CoreLogic figures indicate that house prices are higher than they were a year ago in 11 of the 15 market jurisdictions.
That simple truth demonstrates that the forecasts back in March-April of a dramatic and immediate collapse of house prices was sensationalist nonsense.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Australian house prices resilient in COVID-19 downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The key message for property investors right now is that there are many growth markets across Australia.
There’s a tendency in mainstream media to extrapolate the situations in Sydney and Melbourne to the whole nation. If the big cities are in decline, then Australian real estate is in decline, according to news media.
This is seldom true – and it’s certainly not the case right now. Some of our smaller capital cities are pumping strongly and, in particular, regional Australia has many growth markets.
Last week I made this comment: “Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.”
I wrote that I rated the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and that it continues to produce solid results in its property markets.
The anecdotal evidence from people at the coalface of the Sunshine Coast property industry is that sales are happening, vacancies remain low and there’s no evidence of values falling.
The latest data on prices and vacancy rates confirms that – with evidence of notable growth pockets.
Most of the postcodes across the Sunshine Coast region, including Noosa (which is a separate local government area), have vacancy rates between 1% and 2%. While some of the capital city CBDs and tourism-dominated locations like Surfers Paradise have had big blowouts in their vacancies, the Sunshine Coast has resisted this trend.
Although tourism is an important industry to the Sunshine Coast, its economy is insulated by the ongoing massive spend on infrastructure, including the evolving medical precinct, the new CBD now under construction, the billion-dollar highway improvements, the upgrade of the local airport to international status and the subsea internet cable link to Asia – among other projects.
And this is bolstering the local property market.
The top end of the market in particular has been boosted, thanks in part of the influx of well-paid medical specialists working in the new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion university hospital.
The two most expensive suburbs in the region, Sunshine Beach and Minyama, have both experienced notable uplift in prices recently. The median house price for Sunshine Beach, just outside Noosa, has risen 16% in the latest quarter and 27% in annual terms, to reach $1.8 million. Minyama is up 7% in the most recent quarter and 23% annually – and typical houses are now above $1.1 million.
The median house price for Noosa Heads has risen 8% in the past year, including 1.4% in the most recent quarter.
Other locations throughout the Sunshine Coast region, including Mooloolaba, Maroochydore, Coolum and Pelican Waters, have recorded more moderate growth, but nevertheless have achieved price uplift in both the past 12 months and the most recent quarter – and a time when the big cities are feeling the negative impacts of Covid-19.
Keep that in mind the next time you hear one of our chattering economists telling us that “Australian property prices” are falling.
The Sunshine Coast is a standout example among many thriving regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Sunshine Coast remains a standout market during COVID-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
A Shakespearean character suggested (Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2), as a great way to improve the country: “First thing we do: let’s kill all the lawyers.”
While the idea has merit in 21st Century Australia, I think a better strategy would be to get rid of all the economists. A good method of dispatch would be to push them off a cliff, similar to the September cliff they’re all predicting as the next catastrophe to afflict Australia’s economy.
If there’s a more pointless and over-rated profession anywhere in society, I don’t know about it. These people continue to get paid, and they continue to feature daily in major media with their incessant “warnings”, despite their staggering ability to be wrong with most of their forecasts.
For many of our chattering economists, the meaning of life is their picture in the paper or a short grab on the evening television news. Some exhibit a need for daily exposure. How best to achieve that? Say something sensationally negative – the truth is optional and you can be sure that no journalist will ever check on your track record of getting things right, so credibility is unimportant. Just describing yourself as an economist is enough.
So when the impacts of Covid-19 first became apparent in February and March, the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists began predicting a collapse in real estate prices.
The people I call “the usual suspects”, the economists and independent ranters who always talk down property, began tipping house prices would fall at least 20% and some suggested even 30% or 40%.
Journalists, being the shallow creatures that they are, lapped it all up and rushed to print with sensationally negative headlines, without applying any scrutiny to the forecasters and their motives.
Four months later, some of those forecasters are retracting their earlier predictions. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, always eager to be a real estate pessimist, recently recanted his 20% decline tip and suggested a more moderate outcome.
The boffins at UBS, who seldom see anything positive in real estate, recently admitted they’d got in wrong and that housing markets were holding up a lot better than they thought.
The latest data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research indicates that most of the markets across Australia still have house prices higher than they were at the start of 2020, in defiance of those dire forecasts.
But now the diehard doomsdayers have found a new catastrophe to obsess over: the September cliff.
The theory is that come the end of September, the banks and the federal government will flick a switch and stop supporting Australia.
The trigger here is that JobKeeper is scheduled to run until then and the banks have put a similar deadline on their extension of mortgage payment holidays to borrowers. So, when the government and banks suddenly stop caring about the nation, and themselves, and switch off their support, everything will fall off a cliff. Theoretically.
It’s a convenient scenario for pessimistic economists (is there any other type?) and journalists with a negative mindset (there is definitely no other type).
But there are serious flaws in the theory and I feel confident in suggesting that is simply won’t happen. There will be no cliff for prices to fall off at the end of September.
Here’s what’s wrong with the “September cliff” theory:-
· It assumes that everything depends on JobKeeper and mortgage holidays. It doesn’t – there’s a whole lot more in the mix.
· It assumes the Federal Government will suddenly stop caring about the national economy and simply switch off support in September. They won’t.
· It assumes banks will shoot themselves in the foot by abandoning their customers. They haven’t come this far in supporting their borrower customers to abandon them later.
· It assumes that nothing will change with business and employment between now and 30 September. But a lot is changing already, with restrictions easing, businesses re-opening and jobs re-appearing.
· It overlooks the extraordinary level of stimulus measures in play. Multiple booster measures from all levels of government have been activated and there is more to come. A $72 billion spend on infrastructure provides a prime example of the measures that will generate economic activity and jobs. The $25,000 grant for people to build homes is generating activity that has surpassed all expectations and the economic multiplier effect of residential construction is the second biggest of any industry sector in Australia.
· It overlooks the impact of the ongoing easing of restrictions. Before we get to the doomsday deadline, state borders will be open (most are already, notwithstanding the Victoria situation) and tourism will be pumping again. Australia are revelling in the new freedoms and this will help revive economies. The latest ABS data shows that retail spending is rising again, with a 17% increase in May.
· It overlooks the news that people who sought mortgage holidays are rapidly moving back to making mortgage payments. ANZ said in mid-June that a third of the customers who sought a holiday are already back making payments. The numbers of borrowers resuming payments is growing every week.
· It ignores the extraordinary resilience of real estate markets, which have a history of not only resisting economic downturns but leading national economic recovery. Real estate markets revel in defying the most dire forecasts of the chattering economists.
· It forgets the natural boost to real estate markets from the Spring selling season.
The “September cliff” theory will be forgotten even before we get to September. The people who made those forecasts will have forgotten they made them. For most of the talking heads, it’s nothing more than a soundbite, a publicity opportunity. Some of them don’t even believe their public statements.
It will join an already-long list of predictions that have been proven false since February. Every statistic that has been published to date – whether it be property prices, auction clearances rates, vacancy rates, retail spending, unemployment figures and GDP numbers – has been less dramatic than the media forecasts.
It’s time we stopped listening to the attention-seeking economists whose only objective is to gain media profile by feeding the 24-hour news cycle, with little regard to the consequences.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

The 'September Cliff' is just the latest property economic nonsense: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Sydney has been the market most visibly impacted by the Covid-19 period. The number of growth suburbs has dropped sharply and danger markets have doubled.
While other major cities have been notably resilient in the face of the virus crisis, Sydney’s statistics on sales trend and vacancies have deteriorated significantly – although prices in many markets sectors remain resilient.
In our previous (Autumn 2020) quarterly survey, we reported “the strongest Sydney market we have recorded in the five years we have been conducting our quarterly sales surveys”.
But our latest (Winter 2020) survey shows the number of suburbs with rising buyer demand has dropped from 67 to 24, while the number of suburbs we classify as danger markets has increased from 12 to 24.
This coincides with a marked increase in vacancy rates in many parts of the Greater Sydney Area. Sydney overall has the highest vacancy rate among the capital cities and the inner-city postcodes have recorded a major blowout, caused primarily by investors who had previously used short-term letting methods like Airbnb.
Sydney is also most impacted by the shutdown of international travel and overseas migration.
The Covid-19 impact has been a particular blow to Sydney markets because in late 2019 and early 2020 there was a notable revival after a prolonged slump throughout 2018 and most of 2019. Our Autumn 2020 survey showed Sydney surging back to a position of strength, with sales activity and prices rising, only to be sabotaged by the virus crisis.
The most visible manifestation of the Covid-19 downturn comes from the number of suburbs we classify as danger markets. These are locations where a decline in sales activity has coincided with a major blowout in vacancy rates, factors which have greatly impacted locations dominated by apartments - and 16 of the 24 danger markets are in the Sydney City and Parramatta municipalities.
The eight danger markets in the Sydney City LGA include Pyrmont, Ultimo, Waterloo, Haymarket, Forest Lodge, Chippendale and the Sydney CBD - while Glebe, Woolloomooloo and Erskineville are classified as declining markets.
The Parramatta LGA also has eight danger markets: Carlingford, Epping, Harris Park, Lidcombe, North Parramatta, Parramatta, Rosehill and Wentworth Point.
On the positive side of the ledger, there are precincts which are showing a high level of resilience – notably two municipalities in the south of Sydney, Georges River and Sutherland.
The LGA of Sutherland is the market leader in this coronavirus period, with three growth suburbs (Menai, Engadine and Miranda), five consistency markets and none classified as declining or danger. This precinct offers a great lifestyle based on water and national park access, plus lower prices than the suburbs of the inner west and north shore.
In terms of growth markets, quarterly sales in Engadine have been 42-58-73-76, while Menai sales have been 30-41-45-42-50.
The nearby Georges River LGA has two growth suburbs (Allawah and Peakhurst), three consistency suburbs and none classified as declining or danger.
Penrith is another standout, because of the high number of consistency suburbs and the absence of declining or danger markets. In the suburb of Penrith, quarterly sales have been 60-73-85-92-103-112, a pattern that has defied the broader trends.
In the more upmarket sectors, the Northern Beaches has two growth suburbs, (Balgowlah and Dee Why), six consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger. Frenchs Forest and Freshwater rank nationally for their high level of consistency over several years, regardless of the broader market trends.
The Waverley LGA also has been quite steady, with sales in North Bondi quarter by quarter being 30-39-40-51-45-46-56.
Other upmarket precincts showing steadiness in the face of negative forces include the Woollahra and Ku-ring-gai municipalities.
Notwithstanding the destructive impacts of the virus crisis, Sydney has recently shown a notable level of resilience in terms of prices.
While only 25% of house markets and 27% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth in their median prices, 84% of house markets and 75% of apartment locations have delivered growth in the most recent quarter.
This reflects the recovery in prices that was under way as we entered the Covid-19 period and the strong price resistance shown by many Sydney markets during the shutdown phase.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Sydney property market hit hardest by coronavirus crisis: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane shows how complex markets can be and illustrates the folly of generalisation. 
My winter survey of sales activity and prices reveals that the number of rising markets across the Brisbane metro area is matched by the number of declining/danger areas – and in between are the majority of suburbs which are consistency or plateau markets.
Brisbane’s data shows the impact of the Covid-19 shutdown while also displaying a good level of resilience. The number of suburbs with rising sales activity (28) is lower than the Autumn 2020 survey (37), but better than at the same time last year (24).
There continues to be a high level of consistency markets (50 suburbs, down slightly from 56 in the previous survey). The existence of 28 growth suburbs and 50 consistency suburbs shows a solid degree of resistance to the virus crisis period. But also significant is the 113 plateau markets (suburbs where sales activity has dropped below the previous levels), the highest in three years.
Brisbane also has 21 suburbs ranked as declining markets, slightly fewer than in the previous quarterly survey (23) and substantially lower than six months ago (32). There are also seven danger markets, ones where sales activity and prices are down and vacancies are uncomfortably high.
The Brisbane market was poised for a long overdue boom before Covid-19 struck. As we wrote in the previous edition: “Every statistic that matters depicts uplift in the Brisbane market and prices are expected to rise in 2020. Many commentators have forecast a Brisbane boom in recent years, though many were simply assuming that the Queensland capital would follow the lead of Melbourne and Sydney. Brisbane, however, has lacked the core growth drivers that boosted markets in the two biggest cities.
“But, increasingly, growth parameters are lining up for Brisbane. Population data is favourable, the affordability comparison is helpful, surveyed investors say they are targeting Brisbane – and the major piece of the puzzle previously missing, infrastructure spending, is starting to happen.”
Because of those factors, we believe Brisbane will return to strength quickly in the recovery-from-corona phase.
As we often find with these surveys, there is particular strength in the northern suburbs of Brisbane – the Brisbane North precinct and the Moreton Bay LGA jointly account for half of the 28 suburbs ranked as rising markets. The southside has many of the struggling markets and Brisbane’s inner-city provides all of the danger markets.
In our analysis we divide the sprawling Brisbane City LGA into five precincts (inner, north, south, east and west) while the more distant parts of the metro area are covered by the LGAs of Ipswich, Logan, Redland and Moreton Bay – a total of nine precincts. 
The Brisbane North precinct and its neighbour Moreton Bay Region are the standouts, as they have been in our surveys in the past.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has regularly been the best-performing Brisbane market, boosted by affordability, good infrastructure and proximity to employment nodes (including a new university campus). And its status has been enhanced in this survey, with the number of rising suburbs increasing from eight to nine. This LGA also has 10 suburbs ranked as consistency markets, which overall creates a strong result for this precinct in a virus-impacted market.
Leading suburbs include Petrie (quarterly sales of 43-47-53-69-66), Strathpine (65-79-81-83) and Banksia Beach (46-54-67-68-70).
Brisbane North has 5 suburbs classified as rising markets, 9 ranked as consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger markets. There are two particular clusters with strongly-performing suburbs: the inner north (which includes suburbs like Newmarket, Windsor, Stafford and Kedron), and the north-east precinct (which includes Nudgee, Nundah, Northgate and Wavell Heights). 
Ashgrove, with quarterly sales of 54-57-60-71-74, is typical of the suburbs with rising trajectories. Zillmere (42-47-49-56-62-64) is another of the growth markets.
The other standout market to emerge in this survey is the Brisbane-east precinct, which has five growth suburbs, seven consistency markets and no locations ranked as declining or danger markets. Leading locations include Wynnum West (54-67-74-80) and Murarrie (22-28-29-35-47-51).
The Brisbane-inner precinct is a confusion of suburbs with contrasting rankings: the 22 ranked suburbs include 2 rising, 17 plateau, 1 consistency, 2 declining and 7 danger. The danger markets (Albion, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Kelvin Grove, South Brisbane, West End and Woolloongabba) are those where sales activity has dropped markedly, prices are down and vacancy rates are high – particularly with a recent virus-related surge in empty apartments in the inner-city areas.
Logan City in the far south of the Brisbane metro area continues to struggle. It has 12 suburbs with declining sales activity. But there are also signs of life, with two rising suburbs and five consistency suburbs.
Brisbane is split almost 50-50 between markets where prices are up in annual terms and those where prices have fallen in the past 12 months: 52% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth and 44% of house markets have risen, providing an overall result of 46% growth markets and 54% with falling prices.
In most cases, whether rising or falling, the change has been minor (less than 5% in the past year).
Leading suburbs for growth in their median house prices include Coorparoo (16%), Morningside (13%), St Lucia (15%) and Windsor (22%), but the market leader is Fig Tree Pocket, where the median price has increased 32% to $1.18 million. 
Among the unit markets, the best for annual growth in median prices have been Bulimba (23%, Mango Hill (13%), Alderley (12% and Annerley (11%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%5Cn%20&lt;/script&gt;&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;This%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;"></a><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

Brisbane real estate a mix of growth, consistent, plateauing and declining suburbs: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

<html><body>
Property investors will never let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude. 
Clinging to cherished beliefs, most of them based on myth and misinformation, is the hallmark of the typical Aussie wannabe investor - and the reason why most of them get ordinary results from buying at the wrong time in the wrong place.
Against that background, I find that the hardest sell in Australian real estate is trying to convince people that Adelaide is not only worth considering, but is one of the very best locations to target for a combination of affordability, value for money, good yields and potential for capital growth. And that regional South Australia has been one of the nation’s best performers in recent times. 
I will, nevertheless, persist.
The standout consistency of Adelaide real estate is demonstrated by our latest (Winter 2020) survey of sales activity and prices. The city’s resistance to the forces of Covid-19 is shown by the number of suburbs with sales growth and the number with annual uplift in their median prices.
The Winter 2020 survey has identified 51 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales activity. This compares with just 32 in the much larger city of Melbourne.
In terms of price performance, almost two-thirds of Adelaide suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, almost identical to the result three months ago in our Autumn 2020 survey. Once again, Adelaide is delivering on its reputation for steadiness.
Here’s what I said about Adelaide in the Price Predictor Index published nine months ago: “Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia. Its consistency of sales performance is remarkable and two-thirds of its suburbs have had price growth in the past year, led by double-digit rises in top-end markets.
“Adelaide is undoubtedly Australia’s most under-rated market. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices.
“In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand.”
Nothing has changed, despite the negative forces of Covid-19. Adelaide and South Australia have handled the pandemic better, in health terms, than any other state and its economy has showed resilience. This has been reflected in its real estate markets.
One of the strengths of the Adelaide market is that the prosperity is widely spread across the metropolitan area. There are 10 Local Government Areas with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that over 60% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago. 
Regional South Australia is the most surprising market in the nation. There is uplift in sales activity in most locations across the state and the vast majority of regional towns have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, with most up by more than 5%.
This market has been a consistently strong performer in recent years but is unlikely to ever receive any media recognition for it.
In the Spring 2019 edition of The Price Predictor Index nine months ago, we commented: “It would surprise many property observers to learn that three-quarters of the towns in Regional South Australia have recorded price growth in the past 12 months, including some which have achieved double-digit increases.”
In the Autumn 2020 edition three months ago we said: “Regional SA continues to perform, with significant increases in median house prices in many locations. And we now have steady upward trends in sales activity in areas that have not previously featured …”
And, notwithstanding the impacts of the pandemic period, Regional SA continues to deliver strong results. Of the 33 locations ranked in our survey, 17 are rated as rising markets, six are ranked as consistency markets and the other 10 are plateau markets.
Whyalla is continuing its recovery; Mount Gambier continues to be a growth market; and the Victor Harbor area has enhanced its status as a solid performer.
There has been a big revival in prices in Whyalla, which was previously mired in a significant downturn. In the past 12 months, growth in median prices has included 29% in Whyalla, 31% in both Whyalla Stuart and Whyalla Jenkins, 20% in Whyalla Playford and 12% in Whyalla Norrie.
To put this into perspective, these locations are rising from a very low base. Whyalla Stuart’s median house price has increased 31% in 12 months but remains at just $130,000. Whyalla Norrie’s median house price is just $145,000, despite an annual rise of 12%.
Nevertheless, prices are heading in the right direction, on the back of improved sales activity. 
Other locations to record good median price growth over the past 12 months include Tanunda (12%), Naracoorte (10%), Kapunda (11%), Millicent (10%) and Mannum (10%). In the busy markets of the Alexandrina LGA, Middleton is up 10% and Hindmarsh Island has risen 16%.
Alexandrina, south-east of Adelaide, continues to be the individual star in terms of sales activity. Most of the main centres in this municipality – Goolwa, Goolwa South, Hindmarsh Island, Middleton and Strathalbyn – have been classified as rising markets in our latest survey.
The Victor Harbor area is the other standout. This LGA often features in our reports as the steadiest of performers. In this new survey, Hayborough, McCracken, Victor Harbor and Port Elliot are all classified as rising markets. Prices are rising moderately in this market, generally around 3-5% in the past year. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
</body></html>

Terry Ryder

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Terry Ryder

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News