Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Melbourne has negotiated the difficult post-boom correction phase and is now clearly in recovery mode.
The turn-around in overall fortunes in the Melbourne metropolitan area since the middle of 2019 has been characterised by a noticeable improvement in auction clearance rates and recent evidence of a revival in price growth.
Many Melbourne suburbs still have median house prices below the levels of 12 months ago, but in the most recent quarter their medians have risen.
And the latest generalised data for Melbourne suggests the city overall now has pricing levels higher than a year ago. SQM Research has Melbourne houses up 2% in annual terms, while CoreLogic reports a rise of about 1%. Both those sources report solid rises in latest month, both for houses and for apartments.
A standout feature has been the resilience of suburban unit markets in 2019: many Melbourne suburbs have recorded substantial decreases in their median house prices but rises in their median apartment prices.
The official statistics show that first-home buyers overall are more active now than at any time in the past eight years - and many young adults opt for the apartment lifestyle, rather than a house on land - and not just because it’s cheaper.
So demand for affordable apartments stayed relatively strong in 2019 at a time when demand for houses was weak. 
The price differential - in many Melbourne suburbs the median price for apartments is roughly half that for houses - has been a factor.
But demographic factors have also been influential. Not only do many young adults prefer apartments, but downsizing retirees are buying units and townhouses, while migrants flooding into Melbourne are often coming from cultures where attached dwellings are the norm.
For all these reasons, many apartments markets in suburban Melbourne have remained solid during the post-boom correction - and look poised for further growth.
At the same time, there has been strong demand for houses in good suburbs, but listings have been low.  Despite the onset of Spring and the increasingly positive market news in mainstream media, vendors have been strangely reluctant to come to the party. The downturn in the construction of new dwellings has been an additional factor.
The imbalance between supply and demand has been a factor in lifting clearance rates and median prices - and many forecasters are tipping strong performance in 2020.
SQM Research’s Louis Christopher in his Boom and Bust report, is forecasting price growth of up to 15% for Melbourne in 2020. SQM’s growth predictions for 2020 are modelled on different scenarios of what might occur over the next 12 months, based on changing market fundamentals and controls.
The base scenario – which would keep the cash rate unchanged at current lows of 0.75%, no intervention from banking regulator APRA, a recovering economy and a healthy Australian dollar – sees property prices rise 7% to 11% nationally through 2020.
But Melbourne is expected to exceed this with price growth of 14-15%, taking property values to new highs.
Other forecasters, including Commonwealth Bank and HSBC, are also tipping significant growth in major Australian cities in 2020, with Melbourne at the high end of the growth list.
In making selections for Hotspotting’s new edition of Top 5 Melbourne Hotspots, I have highlighted areas that have shown resilience during the downturn, have offerings that are affordable to mainstream buyers and have solid credentials for long-term, sustainable price growth.
The Darebin LGA precinct provides a good example: it has suburbs that continue to evolve through gentrification in good locations, with attractive proximity to the CBD and other big employment nodes.
Houses are relatively affordable and apartments particularly so. Vacancies are very low, as rental demand is consistently strong, and long-term capital growth rates are good. Yields are above average for Melbourne.
Similar arguments could be made for the Moreland and Moonee Valley municipalities which also feature in the new edition of our Melbourne report.
Brimbank and Wyndham make up the top five.
Overall, it’s a good time to be considering real estate investment in Melbourne and we expect 2020 to be a vibrant year for markets in the Victorian capital.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne's Darebin in hotspot recovery mode: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
I’m expecting uplift in apartment markets in the major cities as we transition into the New Year. It’s clear from the evidence that’s emerging week by week that the post-boom correction that afflicted Melbourne and Sydney has run its course and recovery is real.
But, contrary to the general tone of mainstream media, there was no blanket collapse in price levels across the two biggest cities during that recent downturn. Some market sectors were strongly resistant.
Generalised reporting, with a single figure to describe outcomes in an entire very large city, disguises the myriad scenarios playing out across a metropolitan area. At Hotspotting, we conduct a suburb-by-suburb analysis of sales activity and price trends every quarter and that shows how many variances there are. Even neighbouring suburbs can have contrasting fortunes. It’s fundamentally about local conditions.
A trend I saw during that correction phase was numerous suburbs in both Melbourne and Sydney where median house prices were down (a lot, in many cases) but median unit prices were still up.
As investors fell away, younger home buyers became increasingly active and there’s a preference among young adults for the apartment lifestyle, and not only because units are cheaper. Young adults are making choices that are different to those of their parents and grandparents, who generally opted for the suburban house on land.
Apartments offer a low-maintenance low-energy lifestyle, often in a better-connected location at a cheaper price. So demand for apartments held up pretty well in the big-city downturn and prices stayed solid in many locations (not all).
And now we have the brave new world of recovering or rising markets in our capital cities. We’re entering 2020 with real estate consumer confidence rising and buyers becoming increasingly active, helped by easier finance and tax cuts, and nudged along by a more positive tone in media coverage.
First-home buyers are busy and, according to the ABS date, more prominent (measured by their share of owner-occupier loans) than at any time in the past 7-8 years.
The Federal Government’s assistance package will add impetus – and urgency, because it’s limited to the first 10,000 who take action.
So demand in big-city apartment markets is likely to strengthen.
Here are some case studies.
The Moreland LGA in Melbourne attracts a lot of demand from both renters and buyers, thanks in part to the proximity of the big medical/education precinct around Parkville/Carlton. Most postcodes have vacancies well below 2%.
In the popular suburb of Brunswick, you pay close to $1 million for the typical house but the median price for units is a little above $500,000. In Coburg, the median prices are around $900,000 for houses and $500,000 for units. So you can get into the typical apartment for half the price of houses, generally speaking.
In the past 12 months, the median house prices in both suburbs have dropped significantly, but median unit prices have increased – by 4% in Coburg and 6% in Brunswick.
In the Northern Beaches area of Sydney, Dee Why attracts consistent demand for apartments, with over 500 unit sales in the past 12 months. The median prices are $1,530,000 for houses and $740,000 for apartments – and price levels have stayed solid for apartments while houses are down 9% in annual terms.
In the Northern Beaches suburb of Newport, the median price comparison is $1,700,000 for houses and $860,000 for apartments, with house prices down 8% in annual terms, while apartment prices are up 4%.
Another factor boosting apartment markets is the fall off in construction levels, which means supply levels have moderated at a time when demand generally is rising. Vacancy rates are low and falling in most of our capital cities, although there are exceptions and buyers need to be informed about local situations.
In Kangaroo Point in inner-city Brisbane, you pay around $460,000 for the typical apartment and vacancies, which were consistently above 5% in recent years, are now down around 3%.
A year ago, the vacancy rate for South Brisbane was around 8%. Now it’s around 4% and trending in the right direction. The median apartment price is around $500,000, up slightly in the past 12 months.
I’m not advocating that people dash out and buy apartments – and we could have large debates about the pros and cons of investing in apartments, But I do think we’re going to see rising demand in unit markets in the major cities in 2020, especially by owner-occupier buyers, with first-timers prominent. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Uplift in major city apartment markets coming: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers would be better informed if media could let go of its obsession with median price movements and auction outcomes in the two biggest cities as the barometer of all things real estate.
The state of the nation, in terms of housing markets, is too often seen through the prism of the property price indexes and clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne.
Not only does this ignore the different scenarios occurring in other important markets, but it tells us very little that’s useful.
Investors essentially want to know where prices are going to move before they move. A report telling consumers how much prices moved in the recent past simply tells consumers where they should  have bought a year ago.
Equally a report that Sydney’s clearance rate is regularly topping 70% doesn’t tell us where in Sydney people should be buying and it’s useless information if you’re interested in some other part of the country.
There are much more useful barometers that actually provide clues about where prices might rise before they do so. Sales volumes often provide evidence about where prices are likely to move, up or down, and that’s why I put so much time and effort into publishing my Price Predictor Index every quarter.
Trends in the rental market are also a useful indicator of what might happen with prices. There’s ample research that shows that rents often rise for a period before prices start to react. And rents rise because vacancies are low. We saw that scenario play out in Sydney (before the recent correction) and also in Hobart where prices remain strong, with vacancies the lowest in capital city Australia.
I note that Simon Pressley of Propertyology, a researcher whose work deserves respect and attention, has recently reported on the importance of vacancy rates as an indicator of future price trends. I certainly agree with Pressley that low vacancies and strong rentals can be a precursor to a period of price growth.
With that in mind, I’m always interested in precincts where vacancies are super tight, particularly when those places have other solid credentials.
And you have look beyond the generalised figures published in mainstream media. Sydney might have a vacancy rate around 3.5%, but there are local precincts with tight rental markets. Postcode 2168 in the Liverpool LGA has a vacancy rate of just 1.8% and includes a range of suburbs where affordable (by Sydney standards) suburbs are attracting first-home buyers and others. 
Melbourne, where markets are on the boil again, has many local precincts where rental markets are very tight. In the Moreland LGA, most postcodes have vacancy rates well under 2%. The Brunswick West postcode is currently 1.2%, according to SQM Research, while the postcode covering Coburg and Coburg North is 1.3%.
These are real estate locations with good bones and it’s worth noting that during the recent period when Melbourne prices generally were falling, many of the apartment markets throughout the Moreland LGA continued to achieve growth in their median prices – and the tight rental market has kept yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, which is above average for Melbourne.
Rental markets are even tighter in nearby Darebin – most postcodes have vacancy rates below 1.5%. The Northcote postcode is 1% and the Thornbury postcode is 0.9%. In Preston, the vacancy rate is 1.3%, the median price for apartments has risen in the past year, and the median rental yield is 4.6%.
As Melbourne generally recovers from the post-boom correction, locations like these are going to be strong performers.
One reason that Ballarat has been delivering such strong price growth in recent years is the strength of its rental market. Vacancies have been under 3% for the past five years and currently average around 1.5%. Many suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The revival of many regional Queensland markets has been heralded by big improvements in their rental markets. Mackay provides a striking example. When the resources investment boom evaporated, vacancies rose in Mackay and prices inevitably fell. But now vacancies are around 1.5%, rental yields of 5.5%, 6% and higher are available, and prices are now responding.
There are numerous examples across the nation – but you’re not going to find out about them by reading our metropolitan newspapers.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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How to find real estate locations with good bones: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
At a time when few markets in the nation are firing strongly, Regional Queensland continues to be one of the most buoyant. Multiple regional centres have growth symptoms and previously struggling resources areas are improving.
Close to 60% of locations have median prices higher than a year ago, defying the weaker performance that has been prevalent in many other markets nationwide, including many of our capital cities.
Regional Queensland has overtaken Regional Victoria and Regional NSW in terms of the number of locations with growing sales activity, despite the absence of a major contribution from the Gold Coast. 
Regional Queensland has 38 growth markets, making it the second strongest jurisdiction in the nation, after Adelaide. Partly this reflects weaker performance in other areas, including Brisbane and Hobart, and the reality that Sydney and Melbourne are only just beginning their recovery phases.
The Sunshine Coast (above) remains the No.1 market in the state, but other growth markets are emerging, with signs of uplift in Cairns, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Toowoomba and Townsville. Increasingly we are seeing recovery signs in places that were previously in downturn, including Gladstone.
The Sunshine Coast has 10 suburbs with growth momentum, higher than any other LGA in the nation. It also has a large number of suburbs with steady buyer demand. Individual areas continue to produce big price growth, headed by the Noosa apartment market, where the median price has increased 24% in the past year. Other growth markets include Moffat Beach (up 14%) and Parreara (up 13%).
Rockhampton has emerged in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index as a growth market – five suburbs have upwardly mobile markets and others have steady demand. 
The local economy is improving and this is creating a property market revival, helped by the city’s affordable prices (several suburbs have median house prices in the $160,000 to $210,000 range, and only a few are above $300,000). Seaside Yeppoon is emerging as a growth star.
The Fraser Coast region, including Hervey Bay, also has five growth suburbs and nine others with solid demand. Cairns, too, has five growth suburbs, as well as 17 with steady demand, but also three with declining activity.
The state’s largest inland city, Toowoomba, is showing the first glimpses of growth after being a fairly stagnant market in the past few years, while Townsville may be at last casting off the economic sluggishness that has stalled its market recovery.
Mackay’s rise appears to have paused, but the underlying economy is strong and we expect this market to continue to produce growth in the next 12 months.
The Gold Coast presents a number of contradictions. There are only four suburbs with growing sales momentum, but 32 plateau markets and also six suburbs classified as declining markets. It illustrates the reality that there can be multiple dynamics playing out in an individual city market.
At the same time, a number of Gold Coast suburbs have had good price growth in the past 12 months, including the house markets of Biggera Waters (12%), Maudsland (11%), Mermaid Waters (10%) and Paradise Point (14%), as well as the apartment markets in Benowa (18%), Broadbeach (16%) and Mudgeeraba (17%).
We continue to see evidence of revival in resources-related areas which have had lengthy downturns since the end of the mining investment boom. Demand has increased in Central Queensland towns like Emerald and Moranbah and so have prices, with Emerald’s median house price rising 11% in the past 12 months and Moranbah lifting 10%. Both, however, remain well below their previous peak price levels.
Gladstone is showing further evidence of a gradual fightback. There has been some uplift in sales activity and median prices have risen in South Gladstone (19%), Glen Eden (24%), West Gladstone (12%) and New Auckland (11%), but from a low base and with some way to go to make up the previous losses. 
There are also some suburbs where demand and prices are still falling, so the recovery remains patchy.
Mount Isa remains mired in downturn and its suburbs continue to be classified as danger markets. The suburb of Townview, for example, has recorded only 11 sales in the past year and prices remain lower than the levels of 10 years ago.
Overall, Queensland’s regional areas are producing plenty of price growth. Close to 60% of locations have delivered growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months – that’s 120 locations across the state with rising prices, including 44 which have grown by more than 5%.
Around 55% of apartment markets have also recorded annual growth in their median prices.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Regional Queensland real estate markets continue buoyancy:  Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The mini-boom in Hobart and Tasmania is well past its peak in terms of buyer demand, but the state remains the nation’s top performer on price growth in the past year. 
The quarter-by-quarter analysis of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting shows there are few growth markets remaining in Tasmania and we are now seeing the emergence of declining markets for the first time.
Our past three quarterly surveys of sales activity have found that the number of locations with growth momentum has fallen from 23 to 16 to 9. 
The peak of the up-cycle in Tasmania, measured by sales activity, was late in 2017 and there has been a gradual wind-down in activity since then.
But now Tasmania has as many locations classified as declining markets (9) as there are rising markets.
Prices remain buoyant however, although a little less so than three months ago. Our location-by-location analysis of prices shows that 86% of Tasmanian locations have median prices higher than a year ago.
This is down from 91% three months ago, but remains easily the best outcome in the nation. Most of the locations with rising prices have recorded annual growth above 5% and indeed most have had double-digit increases. 
There are only 12 locations across the state of Tasmania with median prices lower than a year ago.
Launceston is the state’s strongest market: it still has three suburbs classified as rising markets – Mowbray, Newnham and South Launceston. Quarterly sales in Mowbray have been 21-23-29-34 and its median price is up 7% to $260,000.
There are 13 suburbs with steady sales performance (suburbs notable for their consistent sales performance include Youngtown, Riverside and Newstead) and none classified as declining markets. 
Suburbs with good annual growth in their median house prices include Newnham (8%), Newstead (11%), Ravenswood (13%) and several others which are up 6-7%.
In the suburb of Launceston, the median apartment price has risen 24% to $400,000 in the past year.
There are still some rising suburbs throughout the Hobert metro area – including Howrah, Margate, Rokeby and Sorell.
Howrah features in our National Top 50 list of Supercharged Suburbs in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index, with quarterly sales of 41-46-50-52-58. Its median house price is up 8% to $535,000 and its median apartment price has risen 12% to $415,000 in the past 12 months.
Generally, the Hobart metro area remains steady and suburbs like Moonah and West Hobart make our National Top 50 list of Consistent Suburbs in The Price Predictor Index.
Most locations have median prices well up on the levels of 12 months earlier. Locations with strong annual price growth include Austins Ferry (17%), Lauderdale (21%), Oakdowns (22%), Risdon Vale (18%) and Warrane (15%).
But the Hobart area now has locations classified as declining markets, including Chigwell, Gagebrook and Midway Point.
There are struggling markets elsewhere in the state, notably the West Coast where Queenstown, Zeehan and Rosebery remain classified as declining or danger markets. There’s also mounting evidence of decline in the Burnie market.
At the other end of the scale, regional towns with big price rises include Huonville (15%), Perth (14%), Smithton (23%), East Devonport (16%), Longford (12%) and George Town (12%).
In the Dorset LGA, both Scottsdale (17%) and Bridport (15%) have had strong growth in their median prices. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Tasmania real estate past its peak, but still Australia's top performer: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
I believe real estate markets are driven more by local factors than national ones. While many commentators are placing great significance on interest rate reductions as a prime driver of real estate markets, I’m much more interested in what’s going on the coalface of local economies. 
And, in those terms, I put a high rating on the Sunshine Coast as a market that investors of all kinds should be considering. I regard the Sunshine Coast as the strongest market in Queensland at the moment and indeed one of the strongest in Australia.
I see events happening there as an economic revolution, which is shifting the Sunshine Coast from tourist destination to international city – a massive transition that’s happened in the past 2-3 years and continues to happen.
I recently completed a comprehensive 30-page report called The Sunshine Coast: Australia’s Most Compelling Growth Story, in which I note that the Sunshine Coast economy was no longer predominantly reliant on tourism because of the creation in recent years of strong health, education and technology industries – all part of an infrastructure program totalling more than $20 billion.
Economies reliant on tourism traditionally fail to deliver sustainable real estate growth. But the Sunshine Coast has diversified and strengthened and is now, I think, the nation’s most compelling growth story.
It has a $17.7 billion economy, making it one of the largest regional economies in Australia, and on infrastructure it’s outspending several of the nation’s capital cities.
The health, education and technology sectors – including the new $5 billion health precinct - are bringing new residents to the Sunshine Coast and this is providing strong impetus to the real estate market, notably at the Top End. The median house price for Noosa Heads has increased 40% in the past three years, while the median apartment price has jumped 25% in the past year.
In terms of becoming an international city, the Sunshine Coast will soon have an international airport and an international broadband network connection to Asia. Earlier this year the Sunshine Coast was named in the Top7 Intelligent Communities of 2019 by the global Intelligent Community Forum, alongside major international cities like Chicago.
Central to everything that’s happening in the region is the creation of a Sunshine Coast CBD from the ground up – a $5 billion enterprise which is now under way on a 53ha greenfield site in central Maroochydore.
The new city centre has attracted investment from local, national and international firms interested having an early presence in the growing region.
The Sunshine Coast is among the top 10 leading regions in the country for employment generation, adding more than 20,000 jobs over the past five years. The $1.8 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital (SCUH) has created 5,000 jobs since opening in April 2017 and the new Maroochydore City Centre is forecast to provide 15,000 jobs over the lifespan of the 20-year project and inject $4.4 billion into the economy. 
In addition, the Sunshine Coast International Broadband Network will deliver 800 new jobs once it’s operational next year and will deliver the fastest data connection to Asia from the east coast of Australia.
Part of the economic revolution of the Sunshine Coast in recent years has stemmed from the region’s growing reputation as an innovation and technology hub.
Demographer Bernard Salt has described the Sunshine Coast as “the entrepreneurship capital of Australia “because of the large number of knowledge-based start-ups and small businesses such as information technology, clean-tech, creative industries, aviation and education.
The population of the Sunshine Coast is forecast to reach 580,000 by 2041, an increase on the previous forecast of 558,000.
The Sunshine Coast is one of Australia’s fastest-developing economies, growing each year at rates well above national averages and is expected to expand to $33 billion by 2033.
As a consequence, our new Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index has found that the Sunshine Coast has more locations with rising sales activity than any other municipality in Australia. And that kind of outcome is likely to create sustainable long-term price growth.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Property investors should be considering the Sunshine Coast: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Rental trends are an important barometer of our major markets largely overlooked by mainstream media.
Media regards changes in median prices and auction clearance rates in the big cities as the measures worth considering, but at Hotspotting we think movements in rents are equally important. They reveal a lot about the state of individual markets and they can serve as a precursor to what’s likely to happen with prices.
History shows that an uplift in prices is often preceded by tight vacancies and strong rises in rentals. This occurred in Sydney in 2011 and 2012, ahead of the start of the price boom in 2013.
Hobart, which has had a mini-boom in the past two years, first experienced a sharp decrease in residential vacancies and significant increases in rentals.
Hobart still has the tightest vacancies in capital city Australia (well under 1%) and it continues to lead on rent increases. We have analysed new data from the two best sources on rental statistics, SQM Research and Domain, and both record strong annual rises for house rents (7.2% SQM and 9.8% Domain) in Hobart and even bigger increases for unit rents (11.6% and 12.9%).
Perth is another standout. A year ago the vacancy rate for the WA capital was 4% but it has reduced steadily over the past 12 months and is now below 3%. Rents have responded, with houses up 4.5% (SQM) or 5.7% (Domain), and units up 4.9% (SQM) and 3.3% (Domain).
If history repeats, this dramatic improvement in the rental market will be followed by uplift in prices, for the first time in five years (the latest SQM data suggests price trends are starting to improve in Perth).
Adelaide too is producing solid rental growth. Both sources have house rents up about 2.6% in annual terms, and apartment rents rising around 3.3%. Adelaide vacancies are hovering around 1%.
Brisbane, where vacancies have recently dropped below the 3% benchmark after several years of over-supply in apartment markets, is now producing moderate rental growth for both houses and apartments.
Both sources agree that Canberra is producing solid growth in rents for apartments, up more than 4%, but Domain records no growth for house rents, while SQM says Canberra house rents have dropped about 2% in the past year. Canberra vacancies are trending higher but remain tight at 1.2%, according to SQM.
Melbourne, where vacancies are generally low, has delivered minor growth in apartment rents, while house rents are largely unchanged.
The two cities with the highest vacancies, Sydney and Darwin, are the only state and territory capitals where rents are significantly down.
In Sydney, where vacancies are trending higher, houses rents are down about 5% in annual terms, while apartment rents have fallen around 4%.
Darwin is showing signs of recovery with rents for houses, with vacancies better in the past year. But apartment rents have dropped 5%, according to both research sources.
Overall, the situation is positive for vacancies and for rents. Sydney is the notable exception.
The improvement in the rental situation for Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane suggests price growth is likely in the near future - especially when considered alongside other factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Rental trends an important barometer for property market strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia. Its consistency of sales performance is remarkable and two-thirds of its suburbs have had price growth in the past year, led by double-digit rises in top-end markets.
Adelaide is undoubtedly Australia’s most under-rated market. I have often lauded Canberra as the most consistent of the capital cities but Adelaide is a serious challenger. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices in specific markets.
In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and/or troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand. 
65% of Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%. 
The list of suburbs with growth above 10% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.
Our Spring survey has identified 61 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum. Over the past two years, the number of growth suburbs quarter-by-quarter has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62, 64 and 61.
Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).
There are 11 Local Government Areas across the metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout market – indeed one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill, Sheidow Park and Seacombe Gardens. 
Port Adelaide Enfield, another precinct that regularly features, also has nine growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Clearview, Dernancourt, Ferryden Park, Greenacres, North Haven and Rosewater.
The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with seven rising suburbs. 
Eight municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Campbelltown, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Onkaparinga, Salisbury, Tea Tree Gully and West Torrens LGAs.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 65% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago. Of the 123 suburbs which have recorded price growth, 51 have lifted more than 5%.
Only 23 of the 188 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area have recorded falls in their median house prices of more than 5%.
Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 35% to $1,165,000), Glenunga (up 21% to $1,185,000) and Unley (up 17% to $1,075,000). 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Adelaide the best performing capital for real estate growth suburbs: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Canberra continues to show the solidity for which it is renowned, with most suburbs having recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. While many city markets stumbled or stalled in the first half of 2019, Canberra retained its “steady as she goes” course and continues to deliver growth.
While the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire city) suggests little or no growth in Canberra prices, the more in-depth analysis conducted by Hotspotting tells a different story. Almost two-thirds of Canberra suburbs have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The national capital is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation – underpinned by the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 or No.4 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report; as an economy it usually ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks among the top two or three in CommSec’s latest report on housing finance, business investment, unemployment and retail trade.
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks second in the nation on population growth, close behind Victoria. Its unemployment rate is consistently the lowest in the nation. 
Its vacancy rate of 1.2% compares with the national average of 2.2%. Rents show consistent uplift and there is evidence of solid price growth in most parts of the Canberra market.
Long-term growth figures published by CoreLogic show Canberra house prices have increased 231% in the past 20 years, compared with 202% in Sydney and the national average of 197%.
Canberra is the Australian real estate embodiment of the “slow and steady wins the race” scenario.
Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise and there have been a few minor ups and downs - but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 64% of suburbs have recorded increases in their median house prices in the past year: 19 suburbs have grown their median house prices by more than 5% and another 19 have grown by less than 5%. Only seven suburbs have decreased by more than 5%.
Price growth leaders include O’Connor (up 20% to $1,260,000), Calwell (up 14% to $630,000) and Duffy (14% to $730,000). Theodore ($580,000), Holder ($680,000), Latham ($595,000) and upmarket Yarralumla ($1,560,000) all have recorded annual growth of 12-13%.
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs: both the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts have multiple growth suburbs.
The Tuggeranong district is emerging steadily as a precinct with good growth markets. Suburbs with growing sales momentum include Calwell, Chisholm, Monash and Theodore – all of which have recorded median price growth above 5% in the past year.
The Inner North, Inner South and Woden Valley districts all have growth markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Canberra undoubtedly one of the steadiest property markets in Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Perth recovery is back on track, having paused in the lead-up to the Federal Election. Sales activity is solid to strong in many locations and some areas have had price growth. 
The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting reported increasingly strong signs of recovery in Perth markets in 2018 and early 2019. The number of suburbs with growing sales activity in five consecutive quarters was 39, 45, 49, 51 and 53 - undeniable evidence of growing demand in the Perth metro area.
Then the revival hit a wall. Like many locations across capital city Australia, Perth paused amid the uncertainty created by the Election and the prospect of a Labor victory and major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
Tighter finance and a highly negative media also contributed to putting the brakes on the Perth recovery. For those reasons, the number of growth markets across the Perth metropolitan area was lower in our Winter survey.
Now our Spring survey shows that the decline has likely bottomed out, with a steady number of growth markets and improving number of consistency markets. There are now very few declining markets across the Perth metro area.
This comes as vacancy rates continue to tighten and rents rise. New data from SQM Research shows that the Perth vacancy rate is continuing to fall. In 2017 the rate was close to 6% and in mid-2018 it was still at 4% - but now 2.9% and trending in the right direction.
SQM Research also reports solid growth in Perth rentals, with the Rents Index up in annual terms for both houses and apartments. This source has also recorded short-term improvement recently in the city’s Prices Index.
Our analysis of median price trends shows that close to 30% of Perth suburbs have recorded growth in their median prices in the past 12 months. The list of suburbs with rising prices is dominated by top-end markets and upper-middle markets - locations with median prices above $700,000.
Mount Pleasant, which has stood out in a number of our recent surveys, continues to be a market leader with its median house price rising 14% to $1.25 million in the past year. This suburb is part of the Melville LGA which has been - and remains - one of the most solid precincts in the Perth market. 
An emerging feature is the number of suburbs with median prices lower than a year ago, but with growth in the latest quarter - providing further evidence of a recent market turnaround. Most of the locations exhibiting that trend are at the affordable end of the market - examples include Two Rocks in the Wanneroo LGA (median price $370,000 - down 3% in annual terms, but up 2% in the latest quarter) and Huntingdale in the Gosnells LGA (median price $375,000 - down 1% in annual terms but up 1% in the latest quarter).
Perth, in general terms, is a capital city leader on housing affordability (thanks to several years of price decreases) and, according to one recent report, has its highest affordability reading since 2004. Against that background, a notable feature of our Spring survey is the emergence of growth markets at the affordable end of the Perth market.
The LGAs of Armadale, Wanneroo, Canning, Gosnells, Kalamanda and Rockingham all now have suburbs with growth momentum.
Another precinct attracting attention is the Kwinana LGA in the south of the Perth metro area. It has been identified in a recent affordability report as the only part of the Perth market where it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. Many suburbs have median house prices in the low to mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in capital city Australia, except for parts of northern Adelaide.
Rental yields are typically above 6%, in an area that attracts residents because it’s close to one of Perth’s biggest jobs nodes and has good transport links to the CBD, as well as good local amenities.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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