National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more internation and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Joel Robinson

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Melbourne has negotiated the difficult post-boom correction phase and is now clearly in recovery mode.
The turn-around in overall fortunes in the Melbourne metropolitan area since the middle of 2019 has been characterised by a noticeable improvement in auction clearance rates and recent evidence of a revival in price growth.
Many Melbourne suburbs still have median house prices below the levels of 12 months ago, but in the most recent quarter their medians have risen.
And the latest generalised data for Melbourne suggests the city overall now has pricing levels higher than a year ago. SQM Research has Melbourne houses up 2% in annual terms, while CoreLogic reports a rise of about 1%. Both those sources report solid rises in latest month, both for houses and for apartments.
A standout feature has been the resilience of suburban unit markets in 2019: many Melbourne suburbs have recorded substantial decreases in their median house prices but rises in their median apartment prices.
The official statistics show that first-home buyers overall are more active now than at any time in the past eight years - and many young adults opt for the apartment lifestyle, rather than a house on land - and not just because it’s cheaper.
So demand for affordable apartments stayed relatively strong in 2019 at a time when demand for houses was weak. 
The price differential - in many Melbourne suburbs the median price for apartments is roughly half that for houses - has been a factor.
But demographic factors have also been influential. Not only do many young adults prefer apartments, but downsizing retirees are buying units and townhouses, while migrants flooding into Melbourne are often coming from cultures where attached dwellings are the norm.
For all these reasons, many apartments markets in suburban Melbourne have remained solid during the post-boom correction - and look poised for further growth.
At the same time, there has been strong demand for houses in good suburbs, but listings have been low.  Despite the onset of Spring and the increasingly positive market news in mainstream media, vendors have been strangely reluctant to come to the party. The downturn in the construction of new dwellings has been an additional factor.
The imbalance between supply and demand has been a factor in lifting clearance rates and median prices - and many forecasters are tipping strong performance in 2020.
SQM Research’s Louis Christopher in his Boom and Bust report, is forecasting price growth of up to 15% for Melbourne in 2020. SQM’s growth predictions for 2020 are modelled on different scenarios of what might occur over the next 12 months, based on changing market fundamentals and controls.
The base scenario – which would keep the cash rate unchanged at current lows of 0.75%, no intervention from banking regulator APRA, a recovering economy and a healthy Australian dollar – sees property prices rise 7% to 11% nationally through 2020.
But Melbourne is expected to exceed this with price growth of 14-15%, taking property values to new highs.
Other forecasters, including Commonwealth Bank and HSBC, are also tipping significant growth in major Australian cities in 2020, with Melbourne at the high end of the growth list.
In making selections for Hotspotting’s new edition of Top 5 Melbourne Hotspots, I have highlighted areas that have shown resilience during the downturn, have offerings that are affordable to mainstream buyers and have solid credentials for long-term, sustainable price growth.
The Darebin LGA precinct provides a good example: it has suburbs that continue to evolve through gentrification in good locations, with attractive proximity to the CBD and other big employment nodes.
Houses are relatively affordable and apartments particularly so. Vacancies are very low, as rental demand is consistently strong, and long-term capital growth rates are good. Yields are above average for Melbourne.
Similar arguments could be made for the Moreland and Moonee Valley municipalities which also feature in the new edition of our Melbourne report.
Brimbank and Wyndham make up the top five.
Overall, it’s a good time to be considering real estate investment in Melbourne and we expect 2020 to be a vibrant year for markets in the Victorian capital.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne's Darebin in hotspot recovery mode: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
I’m expecting uplift in apartment markets in the major cities as we transition into the New Year. It’s clear from the evidence that’s emerging week by week that the post-boom correction that afflicted Melbourne and Sydney has run its course and recovery is real.
But, contrary to the general tone of mainstream media, there was no blanket collapse in price levels across the two biggest cities during that recent downturn. Some market sectors were strongly resistant.
Generalised reporting, with a single figure to describe outcomes in an entire very large city, disguises the myriad scenarios playing out across a metropolitan area. At Hotspotting, we conduct a suburb-by-suburb analysis of sales activity and price trends every quarter and that shows how many variances there are. Even neighbouring suburbs can have contrasting fortunes. It’s fundamentally about local conditions.
A trend I saw during that correction phase was numerous suburbs in both Melbourne and Sydney where median house prices were down (a lot, in many cases) but median unit prices were still up.
As investors fell away, younger home buyers became increasingly active and there’s a preference among young adults for the apartment lifestyle, and not only because units are cheaper. Young adults are making choices that are different to those of their parents and grandparents, who generally opted for the suburban house on land.
Apartments offer a low-maintenance low-energy lifestyle, often in a better-connected location at a cheaper price. So demand for apartments held up pretty well in the big-city downturn and prices stayed solid in many locations (not all).
And now we have the brave new world of recovering or rising markets in our capital cities. We’re entering 2020 with real estate consumer confidence rising and buyers becoming increasingly active, helped by easier finance and tax cuts, and nudged along by a more positive tone in media coverage.
First-home buyers are busy and, according to the ABS date, more prominent (measured by their share of owner-occupier loans) than at any time in the past 7-8 years.
The Federal Government’s assistance package will add impetus – and urgency, because it’s limited to the first 10,000 who take action.
So demand in big-city apartment markets is likely to strengthen.
Here are some case studies.
The Moreland LGA in Melbourne attracts a lot of demand from both renters and buyers, thanks in part to the proximity of the big medical/education precinct around Parkville/Carlton. Most postcodes have vacancies well below 2%.
In the popular suburb of Brunswick, you pay close to $1 million for the typical house but the median price for units is a little above $500,000. In Coburg, the median prices are around $900,000 for houses and $500,000 for units. So you can get into the typical apartment for half the price of houses, generally speaking.
In the past 12 months, the median house prices in both suburbs have dropped significantly, but median unit prices have increased – by 4% in Coburg and 6% in Brunswick.
In the Northern Beaches area of Sydney, Dee Why attracts consistent demand for apartments, with over 500 unit sales in the past 12 months. The median prices are $1,530,000 for houses and $740,000 for apartments – and price levels have stayed solid for apartments while houses are down 9% in annual terms.
In the Northern Beaches suburb of Newport, the median price comparison is $1,700,000 for houses and $860,000 for apartments, with house prices down 8% in annual terms, while apartment prices are up 4%.
Another factor boosting apartment markets is the fall off in construction levels, which means supply levels have moderated at a time when demand generally is rising. Vacancy rates are low and falling in most of our capital cities, although there are exceptions and buyers need to be informed about local situations.
In Kangaroo Point in inner-city Brisbane, you pay around $460,000 for the typical apartment and vacancies, which were consistently above 5% in recent years, are now down around 3%.
A year ago, the vacancy rate for South Brisbane was around 8%. Now it’s around 4% and trending in the right direction. The median apartment price is around $500,000, up slightly in the past 12 months.
I’m not advocating that people dash out and buy apartments – and we could have large debates about the pros and cons of investing in apartments, But I do think we’re going to see rising demand in unit markets in the major cities in 2020, especially by owner-occupier buyers, with first-timers prominent. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Uplift in major city apartment markets coming: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers would be better informed if media could let go of its obsession with median price movements and auction outcomes in the two biggest cities as the barometer of all things real estate.
The state of the nation, in terms of housing markets, is too often seen through the prism of the property price indexes and clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne.
Not only does this ignore the different scenarios occurring in other important markets, but it tells us very little that’s useful.
Investors essentially want to know where prices are going to move before they move. A report telling consumers how much prices moved in the recent past simply tells consumers where they should  have bought a year ago.
Equally a report that Sydney’s clearance rate is regularly topping 70% doesn’t tell us where in Sydney people should be buying and it’s useless information if you’re interested in some other part of the country.
There are much more useful barometers that actually provide clues about where prices might rise before they do so. Sales volumes often provide evidence about where prices are likely to move, up or down, and that’s why I put so much time and effort into publishing my Price Predictor Index every quarter.
Trends in the rental market are also a useful indicator of what might happen with prices. There’s ample research that shows that rents often rise for a period before prices start to react. And rents rise because vacancies are low. We saw that scenario play out in Sydney (before the recent correction) and also in Hobart where prices remain strong, with vacancies the lowest in capital city Australia.
I note that Simon Pressley of Propertyology, a researcher whose work deserves respect and attention, has recently reported on the importance of vacancy rates as an indicator of future price trends. I certainly agree with Pressley that low vacancies and strong rentals can be a precursor to a period of price growth.
With that in mind, I’m always interested in precincts where vacancies are super tight, particularly when those places have other solid credentials.
And you have look beyond the generalised figures published in mainstream media. Sydney might have a vacancy rate around 3.5%, but there are local precincts with tight rental markets. Postcode 2168 in the Liverpool LGA has a vacancy rate of just 1.8% and includes a range of suburbs where affordable (by Sydney standards) suburbs are attracting first-home buyers and others. 
Melbourne, where markets are on the boil again, has many local precincts where rental markets are very tight. In the Moreland LGA, most postcodes have vacancy rates well under 2%. The Brunswick West postcode is currently 1.2%, according to SQM Research, while the postcode covering Coburg and Coburg North is 1.3%.
These are real estate locations with good bones and it’s worth noting that during the recent period when Melbourne prices generally were falling, many of the apartment markets throughout the Moreland LGA continued to achieve growth in their median prices – and the tight rental market has kept yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, which is above average for Melbourne.
Rental markets are even tighter in nearby Darebin – most postcodes have vacancy rates below 1.5%. The Northcote postcode is 1% and the Thornbury postcode is 0.9%. In Preston, the vacancy rate is 1.3%, the median price for apartments has risen in the past year, and the median rental yield is 4.6%.
As Melbourne generally recovers from the post-boom correction, locations like these are going to be strong performers.
One reason that Ballarat has been delivering such strong price growth in recent years is the strength of its rental market. Vacancies have been under 3% for the past five years and currently average around 1.5%. Many suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The revival of many regional Queensland markets has been heralded by big improvements in their rental markets. Mackay provides a striking example. When the resources investment boom evaporated, vacancies rose in Mackay and prices inevitably fell. But now vacancies are around 1.5%, rental yields of 5.5%, 6% and higher are available, and prices are now responding.
There are numerous examples across the nation – but you’re not going to find out about them by reading our metropolitan newspapers.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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How to find real estate locations with good bones: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
At a time when few markets in the nation are firing strongly, Regional Queensland continues to be one of the most buoyant. Multiple regional centres have growth symptoms and previously struggling resources areas are improving.
Close to 60% of locations have median prices higher than a year ago, defying the weaker performance that has been prevalent in many other markets nationwide, including many of our capital cities.
Regional Queensland has overtaken Regional Victoria and Regional NSW in terms of the number of locations with growing sales activity, despite the absence of a major contribution from the Gold Coast. 
Regional Queensland has 38 growth markets, making it the second strongest jurisdiction in the nation, after Adelaide. Partly this reflects weaker performance in other areas, including Brisbane and Hobart, and the reality that Sydney and Melbourne are only just beginning their recovery phases.
The Sunshine Coast (above) remains the No.1 market in the state, but other growth markets are emerging, with signs of uplift in Cairns, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Toowoomba and Townsville. Increasingly we are seeing recovery signs in places that were previously in downturn, including Gladstone.
The Sunshine Coast has 10 suburbs with growth momentum, higher than any other LGA in the nation. It also has a large number of suburbs with steady buyer demand. Individual areas continue to produce big price growth, headed by the Noosa apartment market, where the median price has increased 24% in the past year. Other growth markets include Moffat Beach (up 14%) and Parreara (up 13%).
Rockhampton has emerged in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index as a growth market – five suburbs have upwardly mobile markets and others have steady demand. 
The local economy is improving and this is creating a property market revival, helped by the city’s affordable prices (several suburbs have median house prices in the $160,000 to $210,000 range, and only a few are above $300,000). Seaside Yeppoon is emerging as a growth star.
The Fraser Coast region, including Hervey Bay, also has five growth suburbs and nine others with solid demand. Cairns, too, has five growth suburbs, as well as 17 with steady demand, but also three with declining activity.
The state’s largest inland city, Toowoomba, is showing the first glimpses of growth after being a fairly stagnant market in the past few years, while Townsville may be at last casting off the economic sluggishness that has stalled its market recovery.
Mackay’s rise appears to have paused, but the underlying economy is strong and we expect this market to continue to produce growth in the next 12 months.
The Gold Coast presents a number of contradictions. There are only four suburbs with growing sales momentum, but 32 plateau markets and also six suburbs classified as declining markets. It illustrates the reality that there can be multiple dynamics playing out in an individual city market.
At the same time, a number of Gold Coast suburbs have had good price growth in the past 12 months, including the house markets of Biggera Waters (12%), Maudsland (11%), Mermaid Waters (10%) and Paradise Point (14%), as well as the apartment markets in Benowa (18%), Broadbeach (16%) and Mudgeeraba (17%).
We continue to see evidence of revival in resources-related areas which have had lengthy downturns since the end of the mining investment boom. Demand has increased in Central Queensland towns like Emerald and Moranbah and so have prices, with Emerald’s median house price rising 11% in the past 12 months and Moranbah lifting 10%. Both, however, remain well below their previous peak price levels.
Gladstone is showing further evidence of a gradual fightback. There has been some uplift in sales activity and median prices have risen in South Gladstone (19%), Glen Eden (24%), West Gladstone (12%) and New Auckland (11%), but from a low base and with some way to go to make up the previous losses. 
There are also some suburbs where demand and prices are still falling, so the recovery remains patchy.
Mount Isa remains mired in downturn and its suburbs continue to be classified as danger markets. The suburb of Townview, for example, has recorded only 11 sales in the past year and prices remain lower than the levels of 10 years ago.
Overall, Queensland’s regional areas are producing plenty of price growth. Close to 60% of locations have delivered growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months – that’s 120 locations across the state with rising prices, including 44 which have grown by more than 5%.
Around 55% of apartment markets have also recorded annual growth in their median prices.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Regional Queensland real estate markets continue buoyancy:  Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The mini-boom in Hobart and Tasmania is well past its peak in terms of buyer demand, but the state remains the nation’s top performer on price growth in the past year. 
The quarter-by-quarter analysis of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting shows there are few growth markets remaining in Tasmania and we are now seeing the emergence of declining markets for the first time.
Our past three quarterly surveys of sales activity have found that the number of locations with growth momentum has fallen from 23 to 16 to 9. 
The peak of the up-cycle in Tasmania, measured by sales activity, was late in 2017 and there has been a gradual wind-down in activity since then.
But now Tasmania has as many locations classified as declining markets (9) as there are rising markets.
Prices remain buoyant however, although a little less so than three months ago. Our location-by-location analysis of prices shows that 86% of Tasmanian locations have median prices higher than a year ago.
This is down from 91% three months ago, but remains easily the best outcome in the nation. Most of the locations with rising prices have recorded annual growth above 5% and indeed most have had double-digit increases. 
There are only 12 locations across the state of Tasmania with median prices lower than a year ago.
Launceston is the state’s strongest market: it still has three suburbs classified as rising markets – Mowbray, Newnham and South Launceston. Quarterly sales in Mowbray have been 21-23-29-34 and its median price is up 7% to $260,000.
There are 13 suburbs with steady sales performance (suburbs notable for their consistent sales performance include Youngtown, Riverside and Newstead) and none classified as declining markets. 
Suburbs with good annual growth in their median house prices include Newnham (8%), Newstead (11%), Ravenswood (13%) and several others which are up 6-7%.
In the suburb of Launceston, the median apartment price has risen 24% to $400,000 in the past year.
There are still some rising suburbs throughout the Hobert metro area – including Howrah, Margate, Rokeby and Sorell.
Howrah features in our National Top 50 list of Supercharged Suburbs in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index, with quarterly sales of 41-46-50-52-58. Its median house price is up 8% to $535,000 and its median apartment price has risen 12% to $415,000 in the past 12 months.
Generally, the Hobart metro area remains steady and suburbs like Moonah and West Hobart make our National Top 50 list of Consistent Suburbs in The Price Predictor Index.
Most locations have median prices well up on the levels of 12 months earlier. Locations with strong annual price growth include Austins Ferry (17%), Lauderdale (21%), Oakdowns (22%), Risdon Vale (18%) and Warrane (15%).
But the Hobart area now has locations classified as declining markets, including Chigwell, Gagebrook and Midway Point.
There are struggling markets elsewhere in the state, notably the West Coast where Queenstown, Zeehan and Rosebery remain classified as declining or danger markets. There’s also mounting evidence of decline in the Burnie market.
At the other end of the scale, regional towns with big price rises include Huonville (15%), Perth (14%), Smithton (23%), East Devonport (16%), Longford (12%) and George Town (12%).
In the Dorset LGA, both Scottsdale (17%) and Bridport (15%) have had strong growth in their median prices. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Tasmania real estate past its peak, but still Australia's top performer: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
I believe real estate markets are driven more by local factors than national ones. While many commentators are placing great significance on interest rate reductions as a prime driver of real estate markets, I’m much more interested in what’s going on the coalface of local economies. 
And, in those terms, I put a high rating on the Sunshine Coast as a market that investors of all kinds should be considering. I regard the Sunshine Coast as the strongest market in Queensland at the moment and indeed one of the strongest in Australia.
I see events happening there as an economic revolution, which is shifting the Sunshine Coast from tourist destination to international city – a massive transition that’s happened in the past 2-3 years and continues to happen.
I recently completed a comprehensive 30-page report called The Sunshine Coast: Australia’s Most Compelling Growth Story, in which I note that the Sunshine Coast economy was no longer predominantly reliant on tourism because of the creation in recent years of strong health, education and technology industries – all part of an infrastructure program totalling more than $20 billion.
Economies reliant on tourism traditionally fail to deliver sustainable real estate growth. But the Sunshine Coast has diversified and strengthened and is now, I think, the nation’s most compelling growth story.
It has a $17.7 billion economy, making it one of the largest regional economies in Australia, and on infrastructure it’s outspending several of the nation’s capital cities.
The health, education and technology sectors – including the new $5 billion health precinct - are bringing new residents to the Sunshine Coast and this is providing strong impetus to the real estate market, notably at the Top End. The median house price for Noosa Heads has increased 40% in the past three years, while the median apartment price has jumped 25% in the past year.
In terms of becoming an international city, the Sunshine Coast will soon have an international airport and an international broadband network connection to Asia. Earlier this year the Sunshine Coast was named in the Top7 Intelligent Communities of 2019 by the global Intelligent Community Forum, alongside major international cities like Chicago.
Central to everything that’s happening in the region is the creation of a Sunshine Coast CBD from the ground up – a $5 billion enterprise which is now under way on a 53ha greenfield site in central Maroochydore.
The new city centre has attracted investment from local, national and international firms interested having an early presence in the growing region.
The Sunshine Coast is among the top 10 leading regions in the country for employment generation, adding more than 20,000 jobs over the past five years. The $1.8 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital (SCUH) has created 5,000 jobs since opening in April 2017 and the new Maroochydore City Centre is forecast to provide 15,000 jobs over the lifespan of the 20-year project and inject $4.4 billion into the economy. 
In addition, the Sunshine Coast International Broadband Network will deliver 800 new jobs once it’s operational next year and will deliver the fastest data connection to Asia from the east coast of Australia.
Part of the economic revolution of the Sunshine Coast in recent years has stemmed from the region’s growing reputation as an innovation and technology hub.
Demographer Bernard Salt has described the Sunshine Coast as “the entrepreneurship capital of Australia “because of the large number of knowledge-based start-ups and small businesses such as information technology, clean-tech, creative industries, aviation and education.
The population of the Sunshine Coast is forecast to reach 580,000 by 2041, an increase on the previous forecast of 558,000.
The Sunshine Coast is one of Australia’s fastest-developing economies, growing each year at rates well above national averages and is expected to expand to $33 billion by 2033.
As a consequence, our new Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index has found that the Sunshine Coast has more locations with rising sales activity than any other municipality in Australia. And that kind of outcome is likely to create sustainable long-term price growth.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Property investors should be considering the Sunshine Coast: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Rental trends are an important barometer of our major markets largely overlooked by mainstream media.
Media regards changes in median prices and auction clearance rates in the big cities as the measures worth considering, but at Hotspotting we think movements in rents are equally important. They reveal a lot about the state of individual markets and they can serve as a precursor to what’s likely to happen with prices.
History shows that an uplift in prices is often preceded by tight vacancies and strong rises in rentals. This occurred in Sydney in 2011 and 2012, ahead of the start of the price boom in 2013.
Hobart, which has had a mini-boom in the past two years, first experienced a sharp decrease in residential vacancies and significant increases in rentals.
Hobart still has the tightest vacancies in capital city Australia (well under 1%) and it continues to lead on rent increases. We have analysed new data from the two best sources on rental statistics, SQM Research and Domain, and both record strong annual rises for house rents (7.2% SQM and 9.8% Domain) in Hobart and even bigger increases for unit rents (11.6% and 12.9%).
Perth is another standout. A year ago the vacancy rate for the WA capital was 4% but it has reduced steadily over the past 12 months and is now below 3%. Rents have responded, with houses up 4.5% (SQM) or 5.7% (Domain), and units up 4.9% (SQM) and 3.3% (Domain).
If history repeats, this dramatic improvement in the rental market will be followed by uplift in prices, for the first time in five years (the latest SQM data suggests price trends are starting to improve in Perth).
Adelaide too is producing solid rental growth. Both sources have house rents up about 2.6% in annual terms, and apartment rents rising around 3.3%. Adelaide vacancies are hovering around 1%.
Brisbane, where vacancies have recently dropped below the 3% benchmark after several years of over-supply in apartment markets, is now producing moderate rental growth for both houses and apartments.
Both sources agree that Canberra is producing solid growth in rents for apartments, up more than 4%, but Domain records no growth for house rents, while SQM says Canberra house rents have dropped about 2% in the past year. Canberra vacancies are trending higher but remain tight at 1.2%, according to SQM.
Melbourne, where vacancies are generally low, has delivered minor growth in apartment rents, while house rents are largely unchanged.
The two cities with the highest vacancies, Sydney and Darwin, are the only state and territory capitals where rents are significantly down.
In Sydney, where vacancies are trending higher, houses rents are down about 5% in annual terms, while apartment rents have fallen around 4%.
Darwin is showing signs of recovery with rents for houses, with vacancies better in the past year. But apartment rents have dropped 5%, according to both research sources.
Overall, the situation is positive for vacancies and for rents. Sydney is the notable exception.
The improvement in the rental situation for Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane suggests price growth is likely in the near future - especially when considered alongside other factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Rental trends an important barometer for property market strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia. Its consistency of sales performance is remarkable and two-thirds of its suburbs have had price growth in the past year, led by double-digit rises in top-end markets.
Adelaide is undoubtedly Australia’s most under-rated market. I have often lauded Canberra as the most consistent of the capital cities but Adelaide is a serious challenger. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices in specific markets.
In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and/or troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand. 
65% of Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%. 
The list of suburbs with growth above 10% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.
Our Spring survey has identified 61 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum. Over the past two years, the number of growth suburbs quarter-by-quarter has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62, 64 and 61.
Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).
There are 11 Local Government Areas across the metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout market – indeed one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill, Sheidow Park and Seacombe Gardens. 
Port Adelaide Enfield, another precinct that regularly features, also has nine growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Clearview, Dernancourt, Ferryden Park, Greenacres, North Haven and Rosewater.
The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with seven rising suburbs. 
Eight municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Campbelltown, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Onkaparinga, Salisbury, Tea Tree Gully and West Torrens LGAs.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 65% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago. Of the 123 suburbs which have recorded price growth, 51 have lifted more than 5%.
Only 23 of the 188 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area have recorded falls in their median house prices of more than 5%.
Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 35% to $1,165,000), Glenunga (up 21% to $1,185,000) and Unley (up 17% to $1,075,000). 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide the best performing capital for real estate growth suburbs: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Canberra continues to show the solidity for which it is renowned, with most suburbs having recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. While many city markets stumbled or stalled in the first half of 2019, Canberra retained its “steady as she goes” course and continues to deliver growth.
While the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire city) suggests little or no growth in Canberra prices, the more in-depth analysis conducted by Hotspotting tells a different story. Almost two-thirds of Canberra suburbs have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The national capital is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation – underpinned by the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 or No.4 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report; as an economy it usually ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks among the top two or three in CommSec’s latest report on housing finance, business investment, unemployment and retail trade.
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks second in the nation on population growth, close behind Victoria. Its unemployment rate is consistently the lowest in the nation. 
Its vacancy rate of 1.2% compares with the national average of 2.2%. Rents show consistent uplift and there is evidence of solid price growth in most parts of the Canberra market.
Long-term growth figures published by CoreLogic show Canberra house prices have increased 231% in the past 20 years, compared with 202% in Sydney and the national average of 197%.
Canberra is the Australian real estate embodiment of the “slow and steady wins the race” scenario.
Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise and there have been a few minor ups and downs - but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 64% of suburbs have recorded increases in their median house prices in the past year: 19 suburbs have grown their median house prices by more than 5% and another 19 have grown by less than 5%. Only seven suburbs have decreased by more than 5%.
Price growth leaders include O’Connor (up 20% to $1,260,000), Calwell (up 14% to $630,000) and Duffy (14% to $730,000). Theodore ($580,000), Holder ($680,000), Latham ($595,000) and upmarket Yarralumla ($1,560,000) all have recorded annual growth of 12-13%.
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs: both the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts have multiple growth suburbs.
The Tuggeranong district is emerging steadily as a precinct with good growth markets. Suburbs with growing sales momentum include Calwell, Chisholm, Monash and Theodore – all of which have recorded median price growth above 5% in the past year.
The Inner North, Inner South and Woden Valley districts all have growth markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Canberra undoubtedly one of the steadiest property markets in Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Perth recovery is back on track, having paused in the lead-up to the Federal Election. Sales activity is solid to strong in many locations and some areas have had price growth. 
The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting reported increasingly strong signs of recovery in Perth markets in 2018 and early 2019. The number of suburbs with growing sales activity in five consecutive quarters was 39, 45, 49, 51 and 53 - undeniable evidence of growing demand in the Perth metro area.
Then the revival hit a wall. Like many locations across capital city Australia, Perth paused amid the uncertainty created by the Election and the prospect of a Labor victory and major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
Tighter finance and a highly negative media also contributed to putting the brakes on the Perth recovery. For those reasons, the number of growth markets across the Perth metropolitan area was lower in our Winter survey.
Now our Spring survey shows that the decline has likely bottomed out, with a steady number of growth markets and improving number of consistency markets. There are now very few declining markets across the Perth metro area.
This comes as vacancy rates continue to tighten and rents rise. New data from SQM Research shows that the Perth vacancy rate is continuing to fall. In 2017 the rate was close to 6% and in mid-2018 it was still at 4% - but now 2.9% and trending in the right direction.
SQM Research also reports solid growth in Perth rentals, with the Rents Index up in annual terms for both houses and apartments. This source has also recorded short-term improvement recently in the city’s Prices Index.
Our analysis of median price trends shows that close to 30% of Perth suburbs have recorded growth in their median prices in the past 12 months. The list of suburbs with rising prices is dominated by top-end markets and upper-middle markets - locations with median prices above $700,000.
Mount Pleasant, which has stood out in a number of our recent surveys, continues to be a market leader with its median house price rising 14% to $1.25 million in the past year. This suburb is part of the Melville LGA which has been - and remains - one of the most solid precincts in the Perth market. 
An emerging feature is the number of suburbs with median prices lower than a year ago, but with growth in the latest quarter - providing further evidence of a recent market turnaround. Most of the locations exhibiting that trend are at the affordable end of the market - examples include Two Rocks in the Wanneroo LGA (median price $370,000 - down 3% in annual terms, but up 2% in the latest quarter) and Huntingdale in the Gosnells LGA (median price $375,000 - down 1% in annual terms but up 1% in the latest quarter).
Perth, in general terms, is a capital city leader on housing affordability (thanks to several years of price decreases) and, according to one recent report, has its highest affordability reading since 2004. Against that background, a notable feature of our Spring survey is the emergence of growth markets at the affordable end of the Perth market.
The LGAs of Armadale, Wanneroo, Canning, Gosnells, Kalamanda and Rockingham all now have suburbs with growth momentum.
Another precinct attracting attention is the Kwinana LGA in the south of the Perth metro area. It has been identified in a recent affordability report as the only part of the Perth market where it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. Many suburbs have median house prices in the low to mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in capital city Australia, except for parts of northern Adelaide.
Rental yields are typically above 6%, in an area that attracts residents because it’s close to one of Perth’s biggest jobs nodes and has good transport links to the CBD, as well as good local amenities.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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