Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Headline: House prices fell in May. Alternative headline: House prices rose in May. 
Which is right? Actually, both. Or, more correctly, it depends on whose figures you believe.
CoreLogic records a 0.4% reduction in house prices (overall, the average across the nation) during May, but Louis Christopher’s SQM Research reports a 1.1% rise in house prices over the same period.
And when the latest figures from Domain and the ABS become available, they’ll have different numbers as well.
We could spend hours discussing why different sources produce different (and sometimes conflicting) results on what’s happening with property prices. But suffice to say that they all have their own methodologies and parameters – and what they’re attempting, to distil tens of thousands of sales in myriad locations into a single growth figure, is a tad challenging.
But, ultimately, it’s doesn’t matter whether CoreLogic is right or SQM is right. Essentially, they’re saying the same thing: property prices are remarkably stubborn in the face of major negative forces. As they so often are.
House prices continue to defy the doomsday forecasters, many of them economists who refuse to let go of their flawed theories about how property prices SHOULD behave – and others among them opportunists who see potential to generate free publicity.
Here are some headlines:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">“House prices to drop 20%: AMP Capital” – The Australian, 19 March.</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could drop by up to 20%, says UBS” – Financial Review, 18 March</li>
<li class="li1">“Prices to plunge 30% as clearance rates fall off a cliff” – The Age, 8 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices will collapse, says UBS” – Financial Review, 2 April</li>
<li class="li1">“Can’t rule out 30% fall in house prices, says SQM” – Financial Review, 7 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could dive 30%” – The Age, 27 April</li>
</ul>
For those who declare “but it’s early days”, it isn’t.
This pandemic shemozzle, in terms of its impact on Australian life, declared itself on 20 February when the share market had its first meltdown. We’ve already been through the worst of the health impacts and the toughest of the restrictions and now we’re emerging steadily from lockdown towards increasing levels of normality.
When the price data for March (showing growth in most markets) was published, many in mainstream media said: “Yeah, but wait to we get the April figures, then we’ll see the true impact of Covid-19.”
When the April figures came out (again showing minor growth in most markets), we got the same reaction: “Yeah, but May will see prices nosediving.”
Well, that didn’t happen either. The CoreLogic data showed that in May there was growth or no change in house prices in nine of the 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), with an overall result of -0.4%, while SQM reported a national rise of 1.1% and a capital city rise of 0.5%, with increases in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
So, now the standard line from failed forecasters seeking to justify their negative stance on property markets is this: “Yeah, prices are stable for now but in September when the stimulus runs out everything will fall off a cliff.”
This comes direct from the kindergarten of real estate forecasting. It assumes that nothing will change over the next 3-4 months and that governments and lenders will recklessly turn off the tap without any regard to consequences. 
It also assumes that it’s all about JobKeeper and mortgage holidays, and overlooks the importance of infrastructure spending, loans and grants to businesses, support measures for renters, ongoing government stimulus measures like the $25,000 grant to home builders and renovators, and a whole lot more.
Australia has done well in this crisis and continues to do so. And the future belongs to those who see opportunity rather than calamity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

How true are real estate price fall headlines? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Victoria remains one of the nation’s leading markets, especially on price performance. Of the 138 suburbs and towns ranked our Price Predictor Index, 116 of them have recorded price growth in the past year. 
That means 84% of locations throughout Regional Victoria have growing prices. More than half of those growth markets have increased their median house prices more than 5% in the past year, including many which have had double-digit growth.
The strength of prices in Regional Victoria is confirmed by the latest price data published by CoreLogic on 1 June. House prices recorded, after recording solid increases in March and April, were unchanged in May, while unit prices were up 0.5% during the month.
Regional areas of the state have been boosted by buyers out of Melbourne, including home buyers seeking a more relaxed and affordable lifestyle, while in some cases working remotely for a city business. The coronavirus shutdown period which forced people to work from home is likely to further enhance this trend.
Our Winter survey of sales activity reveals that Regional Victoria has remained quite resilient in terms of sales activity, in the faces of the Covid-19 impacts. There has been only a minor reduction in the number of locations with growing sales activity, compared to the results of our Autumn survey.
There are 27 locations with rising demand. The numbers for the Winter survey are comparable to the results of the previous four quarterly surveys, which generally have indicated that the Regional Victoria market jurisdiction has passed its peak but remains sturdy.
This market was at its strongest throughout 2018, when three consecutive quarterly surveys had 47, 47 and 51 locations with rising sales activity.
But, as our research regularly demonstrates, real estate prices often remain strong long after the peak of the market in terms of sales activity.
This is shown by the many individual suburbs and towns throughout Regional Victoria which have recorded median price growth above 10% in the past 12 months.
Ballarat has been particularly outstanding, with price growth headed by the suburbs of Ballarat Central (up 24%) and Lake Wendouree (23%). Brown Hills, Redan, Alfredton and Sebastopol have all increased between 10% and 12%. Other Ballarat suburbs have increased 7-8%.
The best performers in Geelong have been Drysdale (19%) and Bell Park (10%), while growth in Bendigo has been led by East Bendigo (21%).
But growth markets have been spread widely throughout the state, including Irymple (27%), Tatura (23%), Nagambie (19%) and Euroa (18%).
Other which have risen by between 10% and 14% include Apollo Bay, Portland, Woodend, Churchill, Daylesford and Morwell.
There are numerous locations throughout Regional Victoria which have delivered annual growth of 7-8-9%.
In terms of locations with rising sales activity, which is a pointer to future price growth, the outstanding LGAs are Geelong and Bendigo.
The City of Greater Geelong has provided strong growth markets for the past three years and continues to show resilience. It benefits from its ability to provide an affordable alternative to Melbourne, underpinned by a strong local economy and good links to the nearby capital city.
In our Winter survey we have identified seven growth suburbs and four consistency suburbs, a good result in difficult times. There are also 15 suburbs in Greater Geelong classified as plateau markets. 
Bendigo has five growth markets and two consistency ones, in addition to nine plateau markets. This important regional city is benefiting from growing interest from Melbourne buyers and also investors from other parts of Australia.
Bendigo is behind Ballarat in the market cycle so we think has more upside, looking to the future. Ballarat has been a great performer in the past 2-3 years, as the price growth figures show, but is past its peak, with only one suburb remaining with growing sales activity.
The other standout is Latrobe City, where Morwell, Newborough and /Traralgon are all growth locations, while Moe and Churchill are consistency markets.
Other growth markets across the state include Ararat, Benalla, Castlemaine, Gisborne, Romsey, Cobram, Horsham, Mildura, Wonthaggi and Mooroopna.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Ballarat leads the regional Victorian house price boom: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The key question for Hotspotting in putting together our reports in the current climate is this: among the locations that have strong long-term fundamentals supporting price growth, which ones are best set-up to withstand the forces of the Covid-19 shutdown?
We’re searching for places which have the credentials to do well in the short-term, in dealing with the impacts of virus crisis, as well as having the features that drive long-term growth.
As I see it, the key factors are:
1. The strength of the market pre-coronavirus
2. The level of vacancies going into the virus shutdown period
3. The make-up of the local economy and in particular where most of the jobs exist
4. The key components of population growth in that location
5. The level of spending on infrastructure
All of those elements are important, but perhaps the most important one in the short-term is the make-up of the local economy and which sectors provide the bulk of the jobs.
Let me give you an example: Albury-Wodonga, which straddles the border between NSW and Victoria, has one of strongest economies anywhere in regional Australia, it offers wonderful affordability and high rental yields – and, in the past 12 months, there’s been some pretty good price growth there.
But the key factor about Albury-Wodonga right now is where most of its employment exists.
The four biggest sectors that provide the most jobs in this city are: 1 hospitals and medical services; 2 supermarkets and food stores; 3 the military; and 4 aged care.
I can’t imagine a better situation in terms of sectors likely to be hiring rather than firing in the current climate than those.
So, right now, amid all the issues afflicting Australia because of the coronavirus, Albury-Wodonga is performing well in its economy and its property market.
Overall, what we know to be true is that regional Australia is much less impacted by the virus shutdown, generally speaking, than the major cities.
Clearly, regional cities where the economy is largely dependent on tourism will suffer. But most of the regional centres that interest us are not in that situation.
Most of the regional centres that are grabbing our attention have economies based on sectors that are doing well in the current situation, or are likely to do well as we exit the lockdown phase and head back towards normal - sectors like agriculture, viticulture and resources &amp; energy.
Among the capital cities, Adelaide property market is particularly well placed to emerge from the shutdown with prospects for growth.
Coming into the virus crisis, Adelaide was one of the leading capital city markets in the nation with the best prospects for growth.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the Price Predictor Index ranked Adelaide No.1 among the state and territory capital cities for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, out-ranking both Melbourne and Sydney.
Adelaide is one of the nation’s most consistent property markets. It always delivers steady demand, underpinned by a solid local economy and helped by the exceptional value for money offered by its housing market.
Adelaide also had a very low vacancy rate heading into the shutdown period: an overall vacancy rate below 1% which means the city’s rental market is well-placed to absorb the extra rental stock coming into the market because of the impact of the virus shutdown.
The latest figures, to the beginning of April, show that even with the recent influx of new properties seeking tenants, its vacancy rate is still just 1.2% (the lowest among the capitals, equal with Canberra).
The city’s economy is in a strong position to recover well from the shutdown period.
Adelaide is the high-tech innovation capital of Australia and South Australia leads the nation in the production of alternative energy. It has been transitioning strongly from old-style manufacturing to the production of modern technology products.
One of the likely outcomes from the virus crisis is a revival of manufacturing in Australia and Adelaide is well-placed to benefit from that.
Adelaide also has strong sectors in education and medical services.
It has a state government which has been spending significant amounts on infrastructure – and has announced plans to fast-track shovel-ready infrastructure projects to lead the economic recovery on the other side of the shutdown period.
Overall, I see Adelaide as being one of the best capital cities in the nation for real estate investment with good prospects for future growth, as well as above-average rental yields.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide property market to emerge strong from COVID-19 shutdown: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The virus crisis creates unique challenges for everyone in real estate, including those of us who research, analyse and write reports. 
Every quarter I write The Price Predictor Index, which analyses key data like sales activity and price trends for every suburb and town in Australia. Researching and writing that report stretches typically across two months – and in the past two months the world has changed.
In some ways, the world is forever changed but the fundamentals underpinning Australia will not change. Areas with strong and diverse economies, growing populations, good existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, will continue to be good places to own real estate. The underlying principles of supply and demand will remain intact on the other side of the shutdown.
The Autumn 2020 edition of the PPI is based on data that pre-dates the full impact of the virus crisis on property markets (remembering that the figures from both CoreLogic and SQM Research show little negative impact during March) but it shows that Australia was full of strong markets going into the crisis – and gives a clue to life on the other side.
The report identified growth markets right across Australia, finding uplift in places you don’t hear much about in mainstream media, as well as in the usual places. Based on our analysis of sales activity, the leading market jurisdictions were Regional New South Wales and Adelaide, ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. 
Other strong performers, in terms of the number of locations with rising sales activity, were Regional Queensland, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra. Regional South Australia was a surprise stand-out.
Our Autumn 2020 survey identified 77 growth markets in Regional NSW, while Adelaide and Melbourne both had 69 suburbs with rising momentum - but we rate Adelaide higher because it had the same number of growth market as Melbourne despite being a much smaller city. 
The survey reveals that both Sydney and Melbourne were well into growth phases prior to the onset of the coronavirus period, as part of a major upward movement in most market jurisdictions across Australia. 
Exceptions included the two previous national leaders, Regional Victoria and Hobart, which were both past the peaks of their recent upward cycles. We would expect price growth in those plateau-ing markets to level off - even without the additional impact created by the virus.
The report underlines some of the key principles of real estate which won’t change amid the current uncertainty. It demonstrates that price movements are preceded by significant changes in sales activity - and that prices take time to react to those trends. 
Our quarterly analysis shows that areas which experience a steady uplift in sales volumes will have increases in prices - eventually. And locations where sales activity is declining will eventually see price growth cease, or price decline. 
Both Sydney and Melbourne had falling prices in 2018 and early 2019, and this was preceded by a steady fall-off in sales volumes in the 12-18 months before values began their descent. Most researchers measure market peaks by price behaviour but at Hotspotting we measure it by analysing sales volumes – which allows predictions of whether prices will rise or fall in the near future.
The report also provides further evidence of the folly of generalisation about property markets. Media often discusses Australia as a single market, with forecasts of the likely movement in “Australian house prices”. It’s a ludicrous concept, but that’s what they do, fed by press releases from economists who discuss real estate as a single national entity. 
It is equally foolish to discuss a city as a single market. Our Autumn 2020 survey shows that while there was a noteworthy recovery under way in both Sydney and Melbourne in late 2019 and early 2020, the uplift was not occurring evenly across those very large metro areas. 
In Sydney, the revival was seen most vividly in upmarket areas like the Northern Beaches and the Inner West. The outer ring locations remained relatively quiet (with the notable exception of the Blacktown LGA). 
And while Sydney overall was the strongest we had recorded in any of our quarterly surveys in the past five years, there remained 12 suburbs we classified as declining markets and another 12 we rated as danger markets. The latter were all locations dominated by apartments, where extensive recent new development had created over-supply, without any evidence as yet of an increase in demand or prices. 
In Melbourne, we saw some similar patterns, with considerable uplift in the top end suburbs and also in Middle Melbourne - strong middle-ring locations like the Whitehorse LGA - but relatively little response in many of the outer ring areas. Melbourne still had 16 suburbs classified as declining markets, but no danger markets.
Equally, there can be stark contrasts in the performance of suburbs within a single local government area. The City Of Sydney LGA had five rising, 11 plateau, one danger and three declining markets - all those contrasting fortunes within one municipality, covering just 25 square kilometres of inner-city Sydney. 
Real estate markets are primarily driven by local events, even though national factors can impact sometimes. And we’ll find out how much when we see the data for April and May.
I continue to expect the negative impacts from the virus crisis to be short-term – and that, when we’re through this bizarre period in the life of the nation, the fundamentals will still apply.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Negative impacts of COVID-19 on real estate to be short-term: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The significance of the property price data for March has been grossly underplayed and misinterpreted by the dismal media with which we are afflicted in this country.
Most mainstream media outlets dismissed the positive results achieved in March as largely irrelevant and focused their coverage instead on speculation about the potential outcome a month from now – which was, you guessed it, relentlessly negative although based on nothing more than a narky attitude.
This, rather sadly, perpetuates a pattern that has become evident increasingly as Australia deals with the health and economic consequences of the pandemic.
There is, by and large, a wave of “we’re all in this together” community spirit which has seen various sections of society rise to this very difficult occasion to do what’s best for the nation and its people – with the notable exception of our scurrilous media.
The Federal Opposition has essentially adopted a bipartisan approach (with some exceptions) to put minimal objections in front of the Government’s decisions to deal with a mind-boggling situation. The major banks have made it known that they will help struggling customers with responses such as mortgage payment holidays. Businesses that are thriving in these peculiar circumstances have extended new jobs to some of those who have been stood down from hospitality and other impacted sectors. Some of the nation’s wealthiest, such as mining magnate Andrew Forrest, have used their muscle to help with medical supplies or to sponsor medical research. With some exceptions, there are efforts by commercial landlords and tenants to reach a win-win accommodation.
There are plenty of other examples where normal commercial or personal practices have been suspended in a spirit of helping out in these unique times.
The great glaring exception to this has been mainstream media – our major newspapers and television news bulletins. Having been presented with the most sensational news story of our time, which requires no embellishment or need for beat-up, most forms of media have milked it for all its worth.
The relentless, hardline negativity of the coverage has been breathtaking to behold. Journalists have focused on every negative event or statistic with barely concealed glee and ignored the positives. There’s been a stark absence of balance.
We’ve had graphic depictions of the jobs lost and the Centrelink queues, but the considerable number of new positions being created by thriving businesses has been largely ignored. We’ve heard about the new coronavirus cases and each death is morbid detail but not about the numbers who have recovered nor about evidence of the curve flattening.
I’ve spoken to many people who say they have stopped tuning into news bulletins because they’re fed up with the negativity and the absence of any kind of helpful spirit in our media. I totally sympathize. I’ve stopped watching ABC television news, as one example, because of their tabloid mentality. The only place I can find balanced coverage is SBS television.
Australia is full of frightened people. No one has experienced anything quite like this and people are justifiably scared about the health issues, the economic consequences and the disintegration of normal life. And our media is making if worse – far worse than it needs to be.
One of the factors evident here is an absence of understanding by journalists of what their customers want from them. I don’t think the average journo spends a single moment of any day thinking about the needs of the people who buy their products. It’s all about the story, the headline - the more sensationally negative the better and to hell with the consequences.
And so we come the coverage of the property price data for the month of March, published last week. The raw data was a good news story amid the carnage. Every capital city and all the regional markets bar one recorded growth in house prices during March.
Given that the first share market meltdown occurred on 20 February and the event that’s causing the economic crisis is gargantuan, I would have expected some kind of adverse reaction in the housing market in March, but there wasn’t one. And that’s remarkable, but you wouldn’t know if from the miserable response of mainstream media.
Here’s a sample of the headlines:
• Ominous signs the property market is running out of steam – and fast. • Storms clouds roll over national house prices. • Frightening detail hidden in housing data. • Don’t expect property prices to rise this year. • It’s just a matter of time before coronavirus reduces property gains. • Housing market not immune as cracks show in Sydney and Melbourne. • Housing values slowing rapidly as virus weakens consumer sentiment.
The worst of the negativity has come from Fairfax newspapers, headed by the Australian Financial Review, which tends to regard residential real estate as something to be attacked rather than reported.
One Fairfax journo illustrated the mentality with this introduction to an article: “The news from CoreLogic that residential property values continued to climb in March looks positive at first blush – but a deeper delve shows signs are starting to emerge ….”
This is standard procedure for some journos: ignore the positives and keep digging until you find a negative and focus on that. And if you can’t find a negative among the facts, you can always call the usual suspects who are willing to make doomsday forecasts. Some property writers have them on speed dial.
We all know the analogy about those who see the glass half full and those who perceive it as half empty. There’s a third category for Fairfax journalists – those who see the glass as completely empty.
It’s beyond sad. If you had a friend or family member with this kind of mentality, you would be urging them to seek help from a mental health professional.
I’m not kidding myself that real estate is immune to a virus-induced downturn. It’s still early in the story and some markets will take a hit. But I do expect it to be short-term and I do expect a notable recovery.
And I do think it remarkable that real estate survived the March we have just had with values rising in virtually every market across the nation. It says something about the strength of our markets going into the crisis and resilience of real estate in times of adversity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Media is overlooking the positive and regurgitating negativity: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers. 
My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.
Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?
Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.
Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?
I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.
Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?
Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.
Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?
I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.
Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?
If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.
Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?
I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities. 
Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.
Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.
Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.  This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.  If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.
I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.
What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?
I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.
Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?
It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis. 
Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?
That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.
What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?
One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).
My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.  What’s your advice on selling now. 
No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender. 
If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?
A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
On Tuesday (24 March) I will be <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/events/" target="_blank">hosting a lunchtime webinar</a> in which I will discuss the impact of the coronavirus on real estate with Rich Harvey of propertybuyer. 
We’ve been inundated with registrations and it will the most popular webinar ever hosted by Hotspotting. Not surprisingly, with the virus impact dominating news media, people have an urgent interest in how this will play out for real estate.
The virus impact is creating volatile share markets but I expect the outcomes for property markets to be quite positive by comparison.
At times of extreme uncertainty and volatility, Australians tend to retreat to the solidity and relative safety of bricks and mortar.
We saw that the last time there was a global crisis impacting on our economy and causing the Federal Government and the Reserve Bank to take special action – and that was in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. 
At that time we were inundated with economists and others seeking their 15 minutes of fame by forecasting a collapse in housing values. Academic Steve Keen famously predicted that our property values would drop at least 40% in 2009. If he’d been right, it would have been an unprecedented demise of house prices, not only in Australia but anywhere in the world.
And Keen was not alone. At that time, and in subsequent years, there was a seemingly never-ending line-up of doomsday forecasters for Australian real estate. 
One American spruiker, seeking to drum up publicity for an Australian seminar tour, claimed that house values would drop 60% and that land values would fall 90%. 
Renowned doomsday ranter Harry S Dent has claimed our property values were on the point of collapse on at least three separate visits to Australia over the past decade.
Keen, Dent and all the other forecasters have one thing in common: they were all proven spectacularly wrong, every time.
In 2009, at a time when Keen predicted a 40% drop in Australian property values, house values rose 13.6% - that’s the weighted average increase across the eight state and territory capital cities in calendar 2009, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Every capital city except Adelaide recorded a double-digit rise in house prices in 2009.
And in 2010 property values rose another 6%, according to the ABS, with all capital cities recording some level of growth, except Perth.
One of the messages we received from those times, and from other periods when share markets have over-reacted to situations in the global economy, is that the Australian property market does not follow the lead of the share market.
In fact, often it does the opposite. 
One of the factors that will keep residential real estate solid amid the virus crisis is the general shortage of homes in Australia, amid times of strong demand from owner-occupier buyers, including first-home buyers.
There was relatively little construction of new dwellings in 2019. Vacancies across Australia are very low in most locations and listings of properties for sale remain well down on the levels of recent years.
One measure showing the general shortage of homes is the vacancy rate figures published each month by SQM Research.
Their latest report shows that, for the first time in many years, every one of the eight state and territory capital cities has a vacancy rate below 3%.
In recent years both Perth, Brisbane and Darwin have had quite high vacancy rates and Sydney recently also had a vacancy rate above 3%. But now Perth is down to 2%, Brisbane is 2.2% and Darwin has dropped steadily lately and is now 2.7%. Sydney’s rate has also fallen and it’s now 2.9%.
Hobart, Canberra and Adelaide all have vacancy rates around 1%, which means their rental markets are very tight. Melbourne has fallen lately and well as its vacancy rate is now just 1.9%. 
So four of the capital cities are below 2% and all of them are lower than 3%.
With availability of rental properties so low, we’re seeing rents rising in most of the capital cities.
If vacancies are tight and rents are rising, prices are likely to heading north as well – and that’s certainly the case at the moment.
The price report published by CoreLogic earlier this month showed prices had risen in the previous three months pretty much everywhere in Australia – in all eight capital cities and in all seven state regional jurisdictions.
The SQM Research figures published on 17 March showed strong growth in our largest cities, with Sydney up 11%, Melbourne 9% and Brisbane around 7%.
But Hobart still leads, according to these figures, with house prices 14% higher than a year ago.
And there were also moderate rises in cities like Canberra and Adelaide.
So, overall, the data shows that our property markets are very strong – and well placed to handle whatever outcomes arise from the virus crisis.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Coronavirus, a threat or opportunity for the housing market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s a one-step guide for identifying a charlatan in the real estate commentary space. Those who claim markets are rising because we have record low interest rates have just identified themselves as pretenders.
With that simple process, we’ve eliminated all the chattering economists in the land and a large chunk of the electronic media glitterati who don’t allow a lack of knowledge get in the way of strong opinions.
They’re the same people who talk about Australian real estate as a single market – e.g. “Australian property prices will rise 5% this year”. This is a red flashing light that the talking head is an idiot. Even discussing one city as a single market is foolhardy (refer last week’s column about Sydney, which highlighted the different scenarios currently in play).
Here’s what passes for analysis with most of these counterfeit commentators: if Event A coincided with Event B, then Event A must have caused Event B – obviously. It’s the first and last refuge of people who know little about real estate dynamics and want to pretend they have something to say.
The problem is that Events A and B also coincided with Events C, D, E, F and G.
The thing about interest rates is that they’ve been at record lows for years. The only recent change is that they’ve gone even lower. They were super low when Sydney and Melbourne were having their big boom, so naturally that must have been the cause, according to those who subscribe to the Event A/Event B theory.
But those super low interest rates failed to cause booms in Brisbane, Adelaide or Canberra, nor in Perth or Darwin which both were going backwards steadily while the Big 2 were surging. Most of regional Australia also failed to boom, although Hobart and regional Tasmania eventually got on board with what I regard as a mini-boom.
So clearly some other forces must have been in play. That’s where Events C, D, E, F and G become relevant. More on that later.
The other thing about the interest rates theory is that it contradicts the lessons of the past. Those who think that “low interest rates = real estate boom” and “rising interest rates = real estate bust” haven’t been students of history.
Genuine nationwide property booms are extremely rare in Australia. ABS data on annual house price growth in Australia’s biggest cities show that, since 1970, there have been only four years in which all the major markets boomed at the same time. Only four years out of the last 50 – two years late in the 1980s and two years in the early part of this century.
During the other 46 years different scenarios have been playing out in different locations, all dictated by local conditions, oblivious to the level of interest rates and other big picture items.
During those two periods when we had national property booms, the late 1980s and the early 2000s, we had high interest rates – much higher than they are today. They kept going higher and the booms kept rolling on. Mortgage rates got as high as 17% before the profligate Eighties finally collapsed.
And it all makes perfect sense. The economy was raging, consumers were confident and spending big, and rates were rising to try to dampen things down. That’s when people are most likely to splurge on real estate.
Interest rates are low now because the national economy is generally rather beige and consumers aren’t that bullish. The exceptions have been Sydney and Melbourne, where the local economies have outperformed the national scenario, boosted by strong population growth and big infrastructure spending.
In trying to understand why markets do what they do, you have to consider both the macro and the micro factors, but paying particular attention to the micro ones.
Here are the macro factors that rolled out one by one to change the general situation from negative 12 months ago to positive now:
1. The Federal Election was decided.
2. The week following the Election, APRA announced relaxations of its lending guidelines.
3. The re-elected Federal Government announced tax cuts.
4. The RBA brought on a series of reductions to the official interest rates.
5. Mainstream media stopped obsessing on negatives and became significantly more upbeat.
6. Consumer sentiment towards real estate started to rise.
7. Buyers started to become active, but supply remained low.
8. Auction clearance rates started to improve.
9. Prices started to react in the big cities.
10. Forecasters published upbeat predictions for 2020 outcomes.
11. The ABS published loans data that showed improvement.
12. Consumer sentiment towards real estate improved further.
13. The federal scheme to boost FHBs clicked in.
14. Etc etc etc.
That’s the big picture. The national climate underpinning real estate improved, with interest rate cuts just one small factor- and overall not that consequential. Labor losing the un-losable Federal Election was probably the biggest one.
But the reality is that the things that matter the most happen at a micro level. Real estate markets are highly individual and arise out of local economies. That explains why Perth and Darwin have been going backwards while Sydney and Melbourne have been booming (and then busting and then recovering), amid stagnation in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and elsewhere.
Local economic events are paramount. Look at Regional Victoria. While Melbourne was descending in 2018 and the first half of 2019, many regional centres in Victoria were experiencing double-digit annual growth in their house prices. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Warragul, Pakenham, Echuca, Mildura, Benalla and many others experienced strong markets with prices rising.
Regional Victoria is one of the national leaders on important factors like economic performance, population growth, low unemployment and infrastructure spending. Each individual regional centre has its own local dynamics, which provide reasons why local markets will rise or fall.
All of this is good news for property investors, because it means that there are always growth markets to be found, somewhere in Australia.
When people ask “Is this a good time to buy real estate?”, they’re asking the wrong question. A much smarter question would be “Where is it a good time to buy real estate?”
Because in this large and diverse nation, it’s always a good time to buy – somewhere.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Housing markets aren't just rising because of record low interest rates:  Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Six months ago it was hard to find any suburbs across the Greater Sydney Area with rising buyer demand, but now there are many. It’s been a sharp turnaround – but an uneven one.
Overall, this is the strongest Sydney market I’ve recorded in the five years that I’ve been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends. 
Our Winter 2019 survey pinpointed the bottom of the Sydney trough and our latest survey, now under way, provides strong evidence of the market revival, showing just how much has changed since the middle of last year. 
Locations with rising markets, as measured by sales activity, can be found in 22 municipalities across the Sydney metro area, but the revival is not evenly distributed. The greatest uplift is being felt at the upper end of the market and many suburbs have not yet experienced significant improvement.
The number of suburbs classified as declining markets has dropped a lot but there are still 12 suburbs with deteriorating demand – and another 12 that have that characteristic as well as high vacancies and weak prices, which we therefore classify as danger markets.
There danger markets are all locations where apartments predominate. Seven of them are in the Parramatta LGA, where high levels of new apartments have been built in recent years and vacancies remain in the 5% to 8% range in several cases.
The leading market in the Greater Sydney Area is the Northern Beaches LGA. It has nine suburbs with rising sales activity, plus six others with steady buyer demand. 
Quarterly sales in Newport have been 28-36-53-64, while Freshwater and Frenchs Forest are stand-outs for maintaining highly consistently sales levels throughout the post-boom correction phase and now in the recovery.
The Inner West LGA is also performing well, with six growth suburbs and nine others with consistent buyer demand. Quarterly sales in Annandale have been 17-32-36-45-64, while Leichardt has been 59-68-77-105, patterns that will likely drive prices higher.
The Sydney City LGA has growth suburbs, but also shows the importance of not generalizing when discussing real estate in a major city. The central city LGA has five suburbs with growing sales activity, 11 with steady markets, three where demand continues to decline and one suburb which we classify as a danger market. All that diversity exists in one municipality. 
Blacktown is the strongest of the outer-ring markets, with five growth suburbs and 11 with steady sales activity. Schofields continues to stand out with rising sales activity – quarterly sales over the past two years have been 64-82-99-105-120-150-196-162.
Other LGAs with three or four growth suburbs include the Hills Shire, Ku-ring-gai, North Sydney and Sutherland municipalities.
This new survey also shows the recovery in the Canterbury-Bankstown area. Six months ago, 12 suburbs in this LGA were rated as declining markets, with sales levels dropping markedly. But now most of these suburbs have been re-classified as plateau markets, as sales levels start to improve. And four suburbs of the Canterbury-Bankstown LGA have shown sufficient revival to be classified as rising markets.
Across Greater Sydney, prices are reacting to the uplift in demand that is generally occurring in many locations, but most suburbs still have median prices below the levels of 12 months ago. This applies to 92% of suburbs for houses and 85% of suburbs for apartments.
But many suburbs have shown increases in the latest quarter. Examples include Mona Vale (median house price down 8% annually but up 2.3% in the latest quarter); Collaroy (down 15% in annual terms but up 9.5% quarter-to-quarter); Bronte (down 9% year-on-year but up 2.6% in the latest quarter); and Killara (down 15% annually but up 3% quarter-to-quarter). 
This is a pattern I expect to see becoming increasingly prevalent as the uplift being led by the more expensive areas spreads more widely across the metro area.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au </a>twitter.com/hotspotting
PICTURE SOURCE: <a class="external text" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/34120957@N04" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Alex Proimos</a>
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Northern Beaches rising buyer demand drives Greater Sydney to strongest Sydney market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There’s been a striking absence of balance in newspaper coverage of real estate in recent times. That mythical beast that some analysts call “the Australian property market” has been having either a rampant boom or a catastrophic collapse, with little middle ground.
Residential property appears to exist in a no-win situation. When prices were falling in some of our major markets earlier in the year, it was described as a national crisis. It was the biggest downturn on record and consumers were refusing to spend because their property values were “plummeting”.
And now that prices are rising again, that’s a catastrophe as well - because affordability is evaporating and no one will be able to buy.  APRA will be forced to act to squash rampant price escalation.
We have far too many economists, journalists and other poorly-credentialled commentators stressing over the resurgence in the so-called national property market. Consumers would benefit if everyone took a cold shower and had a wee lie down.
Part of the problem is the obsession with the two biggest cities and the tendency towards generalisation. Far too often, outcomes in Melbourne and Sydney are converted into a national scenario which plainly does not exist. Another part of the issue is sensationalism.
Here’s the Financial Review on 3 December: “Economists warn that Australia’s banking regulators will be pressured into introducing a new round of macroprudential tightening measures if the strong and swift surge in house prices continues into the new year.”
The Sydney Morning Herald on 2 December wrote: “Clearly, such increases in prices cannot be sustained. Sydney is growing at an annualised rate of almost 40% and Melbourne at almost 30% which – if continued – would see the median price hit $1.3 million and $1 million respectively by this time next year.”
A 5 December article on domain.com.au quoted economists from NAB, St George and AMP Capital fretting over the “sharp upturn” in prices and the return to “boom-time behaviour”. The lack of quality analysis was reflected in AMP’s Shane Oliver comment that prices may go ballistic because “it has that feel about it”, while NAB’s Alan Oster was quoted as saying: “We’re not sure if it will keep going. But we didn’t expect it to be this quick.”
Another SMH headline shouted: “RBA and Government walk tightrope on soaring house prices”.
All this and a lot more was based on one month’s price data from a single research source. Mainstream media has gone overboard in the coverage of this breath-taking event – and most have compounded their over-reaction by attributing everything to the recent interest rate reductions. 
An economics writer at The Australian wrote on 2 December that “the Reserve Bank’s controversial interest rate cuts have electrified the national housing market”. On the same day, an article in the Fairfax network had this headline: “Sydney and Melbourne house values surge on lower interest rates”. 
And a “business columnist” wrote in The Age: “Residential property prices are on a headline-grabbing tear as monthly growth rates hit a 21-year record ... The floodgates have started to open as cheap money has unleased pent-up demand and spurred buyers to bid up prices”.
This is kindergarten analysis. What about the host of other major factors which have influenced our many and varied real estate markets – like the Federal Election result, the APRA changes, the tax cuts, the assistance package for first-home buyers, the rise in consumer sentiment, the general shortage of supply - and, in some markets, big population growth and major infrastructure spending.
One research source claims big rises in Melbourne and Sydney in November (but less prolific rises for the bulk of the nation) and journalists have run amok.
I would pose this question: When did journalists stop questioning things? And when was it okay for writers to not have expertise on the subject about which they are writing?
A well-informed commentator would know this: if you source the latest price data on any of our capital cities from four different big-name entities, you get four different results. And often the figures from one source contradict those from another.
There are several major cities where, in annual terms, prices have risen according to some sources, but have fallen according to others. 
Misinformation abounds in real estate coverage and the losers are real estate consumers. It’s time for everyone to lift their game in 2020. But I won’t be holding my breath.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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