Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We don’t often get sensible analysis of price data from economists - mostly they generalise about “the Australian property market” - but Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan provides an exception.
In a recent article he notes that some sections of the Melbourne market are still strong and that Regional Victoria has many locations with rising prices. 
This correlates with recent Hotspotting research revealing that the cheaper areas of Melbourne still have strong prices while Regional Victoria is the most buoyant market in the nation.
Hassan says Melbourne’s overall price correction “has shown much bigger differences across segments and tiers” than has Sydney. 
“For Melbourne, units and bottom tier areas are holding up much better,” he says, noting that prices across the bottom 25% of the market remain resilient.
“This theme is also apparent across sub-regions. The big movers over the second half of 2018 were Melbourne’s Inner East and Inner South, with the Inner City and West holding up considerably better. 
“Prices are also performing better across Regional Victoria.”
Hassan says that, overall, the city’s rental market remains tight with vacancy rates holding around 2%.
“Meanwhile, rental vacancy rates are extremely tight across Victoria’s regions, having fallen from 2% in late 2017 to just 1.2% in early 2019,” he says. “This in turn suggests the uneven performance is likely to continue.”
Hotspotting’s regular nationwide research into sales activity and price movements has identified numerous growth markets in Regional Victoria.
They include Geelong (above), Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer and Warragul, as well as many smaller towns within an hour or so of Melbourne.
The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting ranks Regional Victoria as the No.1 market in Australia for strong sales activity and rising prices.
It has also identified growth markets in the Melbourne metropolitan area.
The generalised data on prices - i.e. one growth figure for the entire nation or for a major city - has Melbourne house prices down, although how much they’ve fallen depends on whose figures you believe. 
One major data source has the Melbourne median house price rising slightly in 2018, while others say it fell 2% or 3%, the latest figure from the ABS says 6% and CoreLogic (which usually has the most negative figures) says Melbourne is down 11%.
These sources have one thing in common: they generalise about very large areas. They lump all of Greater Melbourne, which has 500 suburbs as diverse as Toorak and Epping, into one melting pot, with one figure to describe the whole market. 
But Melbourne has many different scenarios in play, including precincts where prices are still rising. Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows many of the outer-ring areas still have price growth.
This is confirmed by new data on the suburbs of the Melton LGA in Melbourne’s west. Most Melton suburbs have had annual price growth above 13%.
Melton’s median sits at $410,000 (up 14.5%) while Melton South is $411,750 (up 15.7%), Kurunjang $432,000 (up 19.5%) and Melton West $450,000 (up 13.9%).
The figures confirm that investors who are able to ignore media generalisations and do some real research will have little trouble finding strong markets where prices are growing.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The property markets that are thriving in Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane is like a car where the engine is revving but it can’t move forward because the handbrake is on. The city’s property market is poised for an up-cycle but, according to the generalised price data published in mainstream media, it’s not yet happening.
The key point for investors, however, is that there are many Brisbane markets achieving above-average price growth.
There’s no doubt that Brisbane real estate has an underlying strength and it continues to show gradual improvement in its market. It remains poised to deliver on the potential shown by advances in the economy, population trends (lots of Sydney refugees are escaping to affordable South-East Queensland) and infrastructure spending. 
The price data for the Greater Brisbane Area is noteworthy, because it shows that the generalised figures published in mainstream media are highly misleading. The latest figures from sources like SQM Research, Domain and CoreLogic have Brisbane houses showing little or no growth in the past year, but Hotspotting’s suburb-by-suburb analysis shows there are many out-performers.
We analysed 269 suburban markets, looking at the latest price figures showing quarterly and annual growth rates: 83 of them have recorded annual price growth above 5% (including 20 suburbs with double-digit growth) and another 100 have recorded growth below 5%; 47 have dropped by less than 5% and 39 have dropped more than 5%.
This means seven out of 10 suburban markets have median prices higher than a year ago – very different to the trend in Sydney which is dominating media coverage and causing careless analysts and writers to morph that into a national downturn.
Many of the Brisbane suburbs where the median house price has lifted more than 10% are higher-end markets, including Bardon (up 11% to $1,005,000), Hendra (up 13% to 1,100,000), Graceville (up 13% to $950,000), Kenmore Hills (up 10.5% to $900,000), Norman Park (up 10% to $950,000) and Paddington (up 11% to $1,165,000).
But the highest annual growth in median house prices has been recorded for Sandgate houses (up 19% to $755,000).
A key trend is that 27 or the 39 markets with prices down more than 5% are unit markets: median prices have dropped for apartments in Bowen Hills (20%), Bulimba (15%), East Brisbane (15%), Woodridge (10%), Greenslopes (11%), Hamilton (11%) and Woody Point (18%). 
This reflects the cold reality that the Brisbane unit market has been oversupplied for the past few years – and not just in the inner-city areas.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has been the busiest market in Greater Brisbane for some time - and my latest survey of sales activity shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand has risen from 7 (six months ago) to 12 – making it one of the leading municipalities in the nation for growth markets.
Growth locations include Bray Park (median $435,000), where quarterly sales have been 37, 57, 62 and 65 in the past 12 months; Murrumba Downs ($540,000) where the sales pattern has been 50, 60, 58 and 68; and Everton Hills ($595,000), where sales have been 26, 39, 39 and 45. 
A number of Moreton Bay suburbs recorded good median price growth in the past 12 months, including Beachmere (up 10%), Sandstone Point (8%), Upper Caboolture (7.5%), Strathpine (10%), Burpengary East (up 9%) and numerous others which grew 5-6%.
The Brisbane-north precinct (the northern suburbs of the sprawling Brisbane City Council area) is now level with the Moreton Bay Region on growth markets (those where demand, as measured by sales volumes, is rising). 
With Moreton Bay Region and Brisbane-north the strongest market, it means the Brisbane market is strongest north of the Brisbane River (with more than half the rising suburbs in the Greater Brisbane area being in these two northside precincts).
A number of Brisbane-north suburbs recorded have good annual price growth, headed by Gordon Park (9%), Hendra (13%), Sandgate (19%), Newmarket (8%) and Nudgee (10%) – while many others have grown 5-6-7%.
These numbers, once again, show how misleading the generalised data is – and that investors need to dig a little deeper to find the growth markets. Brisbane - boosted by the affordability and rental yield comparisons with the biggest cities – has a lot more forward momentum than the media reports suggest.
Once the handbrake comes off (with the big banks starting to compete for business again and the Federal Election soon to be history), Brisbane will become a more obviously upwardly-mobile market.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
 
 
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Brisbane's out-performing real estate markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Remarkable consistency of steady performance is the hallmark of the Adelaide property market, which I regard as the nation’s most under-rated. It has more suburbs with rising demand than any other capital city and the current number is the second highest for Adelaide since Hotspotting started its quarterly surveys of sales activity four years ago.
In the past seven quarterly surveys, the number of growth suburbs has been 48, 45, 58, 61, 71, 60 and 62, showing that the market remains elevated compared to the levels of 18 months ago and continues to show great consistency.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 21 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide has recorded between 45 and 71 growth suburbs in 16 of the past 17 quarterly surveys. 
It continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the strongly recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where most of the strong growth markets are found at present).
And while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 74% of Adelaide markets have median prices higher than a year ago - and roughly half of those have grown by more than 5%.
Of the 199 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 70 have grown 5% or more and 78 have increased by less than 5%. There are 23 suburbs where the annual growth in median prices has topped 10% - including North Adelaide (up 23%), Mansfield Park (20%), St Georges (18%), Henley Beach South (15%), Glenelg units (27%) and Norwood units (17%).
It’s noteworthy that many of the upper-end suburbs have recorded more than 5% growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Suburbs with median prices above $700,000 and good annual price growth include Beulah Park, Clarence Park, Craigburn Farm, Glen Osmond, Glenelg East, Glenunga, Goodwood, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kensington Park, North Adelaide, Prospect, Seacliff, Somerton Park, St Georges, Stirling, Unley and Walkerville.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges, including Broadview (up 15% to $560,000), Daw Park (up 14% to $640,000), Mansfield Park (up 20% to $395,000) and Tea Tree Gully (up 12% to $445,000). This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
The high number of suburban markets with rising sales activity suggests price growth will continue.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are nine municipalities which have four or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with eight growth suburbs including Dernancourt, Enfield, Greenacres, Lightsview, North Haven, Northfield and Semaphore. Five suburbs have recorded annual median price growth above 5%.
Onkaparinga, which always features prominently, also has eight suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (quarterly sales 54, 62, 71), Flagstaff Hill (36, 42, 53, 56), Reynella (16, 26, 36, 31, 42) and Sellicks Beach (15, 15, 23, 22, 35).
The upmarket Burnside LGA is a new contender: it has six upwardly-mobile suburbs, including Glenunga, Burnside, Kensington Gardens, St Georges and Toorak Gardens. Five suburbs have recorded annual price growth above 5%, including Glenunga (up 11% to $1,055,000) and St Georges (up 18% to $1,150,000).
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, has faded slightly but still has five growth suburbs in terms of sales activity and five where median prices have increased more than 5%.
Six municipalities have four or five rising markets each: the Charles Sturt, Campbelltown, Holdfast Bay, Playford and Salisbury LGAs, as well as Marion.
The affordable Tea Tree Gully LGA features as a highly-consistent market and one where eight suburbs have recorded median price growth of 5% or more – including the suburb of Tea Tree Gully (up 12% to $445,000) and Fairview Park (up 9% to $410,000).
The solid performance of the Playford and Salisbury LGAs (eight growth suburbs between them) means the northern suburbs provide a range of very affordable markets with rising momentum. The suburb of Salisbury Hills ($285,000) in the Salisbury LGA has lifted sales from 30 to 32 to 41 to 56 in the past four quarters, while Andrews Farm ($275,000) in the Playford municipality has recorded quarterly sales totalling 33, 46, 50 and 52 after the past 12 months.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide the most under-rated property market in Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane shows how complex markets can be and illustrates the folly of generalisation. 
My winter survey of sales activity and prices reveals that the number of rising markets across the Brisbane metro area is matched by the number of declining/danger areas – and in between are the majority of suburbs which are consistency or plateau markets.
Brisbane’s data shows the impact of the Covid-19 shutdown while also displaying a good level of resilience. The number of suburbs with rising sales activity (28) is lower than the Autumn 2020 survey (37), but better than at the same time last year (24).
There continues to be a high level of consistency markets (50 suburbs, down slightly from 56 in the previous survey). The existence of 28 growth suburbs and 50 consistency suburbs shows a solid degree of resistance to the virus crisis period. But also significant is the 113 plateau markets (suburbs where sales activity has dropped below the previous levels), the highest in three years.
Brisbane also has 21 suburbs ranked as declining markets, slightly fewer than in the previous quarterly survey (23) and substantially lower than six months ago (32). There are also seven danger markets, ones where sales activity and prices are down and vacancies are uncomfortably high.
The Brisbane market was poised for a long overdue boom before Covid-19 struck. As we wrote in the previous edition: “Every statistic that matters depicts uplift in the Brisbane market and prices are expected to rise in 2020. Many commentators have forecast a Brisbane boom in recent years, though many were simply assuming that the Queensland capital would follow the lead of Melbourne and Sydney. Brisbane, however, has lacked the core growth drivers that boosted markets in the two biggest cities.
“But, increasingly, growth parameters are lining up for Brisbane. Population data is favourable, the affordability comparison is helpful, surveyed investors say they are targeting Brisbane – and the major piece of the puzzle previously missing, infrastructure spending, is starting to happen.”
Because of those factors, we believe Brisbane will return to strength quickly in the recovery-from-corona phase.
As we often find with these surveys, there is particular strength in the northern suburbs of Brisbane – the Brisbane North precinct and the Moreton Bay LGA jointly account for half of the 28 suburbs ranked as rising markets. The southside has many of the struggling markets and Brisbane’s inner-city provides all of the danger markets.
In our analysis we divide the sprawling Brisbane City LGA into five precincts (inner, north, south, east and west) while the more distant parts of the metro area are covered by the LGAs of Ipswich, Logan, Redland and Moreton Bay – a total of nine precincts. 
The Brisbane North precinct and its neighbour Moreton Bay Region are the standouts, as they have been in our surveys in the past.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has regularly been the best-performing Brisbane market, boosted by affordability, good infrastructure and proximity to employment nodes (including a new university campus). And its status has been enhanced in this survey, with the number of rising suburbs increasing from eight to nine. This LGA also has 10 suburbs ranked as consistency markets, which overall creates a strong result for this precinct in a virus-impacted market.
Leading suburbs include Petrie (quarterly sales of 43-47-53-69-66), Strathpine (65-79-81-83) and Banksia Beach (46-54-67-68-70).
Brisbane North has 5 suburbs classified as rising markets, 9 ranked as consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger markets. There are two particular clusters with strongly-performing suburbs: the inner north (which includes suburbs like Newmarket, Windsor, Stafford and Kedron), and the north-east precinct (which includes Nudgee, Nundah, Northgate and Wavell Heights). 
Ashgrove, with quarterly sales of 54-57-60-71-74, is typical of the suburbs with rising trajectories. Zillmere (42-47-49-56-62-64) is another of the growth markets.
The other standout market to emerge in this survey is the Brisbane-east precinct, which has five growth suburbs, seven consistency markets and no locations ranked as declining or danger markets. Leading locations include Wynnum West (54-67-74-80) and Murarrie (22-28-29-35-47-51).
The Brisbane-inner precinct is a confusion of suburbs with contrasting rankings: the 22 ranked suburbs include 2 rising, 17 plateau, 1 consistency, 2 declining and 7 danger. The danger markets (Albion, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Kelvin Grove, South Brisbane, West End and Woolloongabba) are those where sales activity has dropped markedly, prices are down and vacancy rates are high – particularly with a recent virus-related surge in empty apartments in the inner-city areas.
Logan City in the far south of the Brisbane metro area continues to struggle. It has 12 suburbs with declining sales activity. But there are also signs of life, with two rising suburbs and five consistency suburbs.
Brisbane is split almost 50-50 between markets where prices are up in annual terms and those where prices have fallen in the past 12 months: 52% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth and 44% of house markets have risen, providing an overall result of 46% growth markets and 54% with falling prices.
In most cases, whether rising or falling, the change has been minor (less than 5% in the past year).
Leading suburbs for growth in their median house prices include Coorparoo (16%), Morningside (13%), St Lucia (15%) and Windsor (22%), but the market leader is Fig Tree Pocket, where the median price has increased 32% to $1.18 million. 
Among the unit markets, the best for annual growth in median prices have been Bulimba (23%, Mango Hill (13%), Alderley (12% and Annerley (11%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%5Cn%20&lt;/script&gt;&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;This%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;"></a><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Brisbane real estate a mix of growth, consistent, plateauing and declining suburbs: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Sydney has been the market most visibly impacted by the Covid-19 period. The number of growth suburbs has dropped sharply and danger markets have doubled.
While other major cities have been notably resilient in the face of the virus crisis, Sydney’s statistics on sales trend and vacancies have deteriorated significantly – although prices in many markets sectors remain resilient.
In our previous (Autumn 2020) quarterly survey, we reported “the strongest Sydney market we have recorded in the five years we have been conducting our quarterly sales surveys”.
But our latest (Winter 2020) survey shows the number of suburbs with rising buyer demand has dropped from 67 to 24, while the number of suburbs we classify as danger markets has increased from 12 to 24.
This coincides with a marked increase in vacancy rates in many parts of the Greater Sydney Area. Sydney overall has the highest vacancy rate among the capital cities and the inner-city postcodes have recorded a major blowout, caused primarily by investors who had previously used short-term letting methods like Airbnb.
Sydney is also most impacted by the shutdown of international travel and overseas migration.
The Covid-19 impact has been a particular blow to Sydney markets because in late 2019 and early 2020 there was a notable revival after a prolonged slump throughout 2018 and most of 2019. Our Autumn 2020 survey showed Sydney surging back to a position of strength, with sales activity and prices rising, only to be sabotaged by the virus crisis.
The most visible manifestation of the Covid-19 downturn comes from the number of suburbs we classify as danger markets. These are locations where a decline in sales activity has coincided with a major blowout in vacancy rates, factors which have greatly impacted locations dominated by apartments - and 16 of the 24 danger markets are in the Sydney City and Parramatta municipalities.
The eight danger markets in the Sydney City LGA include Pyrmont, Ultimo, Waterloo, Haymarket, Forest Lodge, Chippendale and the Sydney CBD - while Glebe, Woolloomooloo and Erskineville are classified as declining markets.
The Parramatta LGA also has eight danger markets: Carlingford, Epping, Harris Park, Lidcombe, North Parramatta, Parramatta, Rosehill and Wentworth Point.
On the positive side of the ledger, there are precincts which are showing a high level of resilience – notably two municipalities in the south of Sydney, Georges River and Sutherland.
The LGA of Sutherland is the market leader in this coronavirus period, with three growth suburbs (Menai, Engadine and Miranda), five consistency markets and none classified as declining or danger. This precinct offers a great lifestyle based on water and national park access, plus lower prices than the suburbs of the inner west and north shore.
In terms of growth markets, quarterly sales in Engadine have been 42-58-73-76, while Menai sales have been 30-41-45-42-50.
The nearby Georges River LGA has two growth suburbs (Allawah and Peakhurst), three consistency suburbs and none classified as declining or danger.
Penrith is another standout, because of the high number of consistency suburbs and the absence of declining or danger markets. In the suburb of Penrith, quarterly sales have been 60-73-85-92-103-112, a pattern that has defied the broader trends.
In the more upmarket sectors, the Northern Beaches has two growth suburbs, (Balgowlah and Dee Why), six consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger. Frenchs Forest and Freshwater rank nationally for their high level of consistency over several years, regardless of the broader market trends.
The Waverley LGA also has been quite steady, with sales in North Bondi quarter by quarter being 30-39-40-51-45-46-56.
Other upmarket precincts showing steadiness in the face of negative forces include the Woollahra and Ku-ring-gai municipalities.
Notwithstanding the destructive impacts of the virus crisis, Sydney has recently shown a notable level of resilience in terms of prices.
While only 25% of house markets and 27% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth in their median prices, 84% of house markets and 75% of apartment locations have delivered growth in the most recent quarter.
This reflects the recovery in prices that was under way as we entered the Covid-19 period and the strong price resistance shown by many Sydney markets during the shutdown phase.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Sydney property market hit hardest by coronavirus crisis: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The significance of the property price data for March has been grossly underplayed and misinterpreted by the dismal media with which we are afflicted in this country.
Most mainstream media outlets dismissed the positive results achieved in March as largely irrelevant and focused their coverage instead on speculation about the potential outcome a month from now – which was, you guessed it, relentlessly negative although based on nothing more than a narky attitude.
This, rather sadly, perpetuates a pattern that has become evident increasingly as Australia deals with the health and economic consequences of the pandemic.
There is, by and large, a wave of “we’re all in this together” community spirit which has seen various sections of society rise to this very difficult occasion to do what’s best for the nation and its people – with the notable exception of our scurrilous media.
The Federal Opposition has essentially adopted a bipartisan approach (with some exceptions) to put minimal objections in front of the Government’s decisions to deal with a mind-boggling situation. The major banks have made it known that they will help struggling customers with responses such as mortgage payment holidays. Businesses that are thriving in these peculiar circumstances have extended new jobs to some of those who have been stood down from hospitality and other impacted sectors. Some of the nation’s wealthiest, such as mining magnate Andrew Forrest, have used their muscle to help with medical supplies or to sponsor medical research. With some exceptions, there are efforts by commercial landlords and tenants to reach a win-win accommodation.
There are plenty of other examples where normal commercial or personal practices have been suspended in a spirit of helping out in these unique times.
The great glaring exception to this has been mainstream media – our major newspapers and television news bulletins. Having been presented with the most sensational news story of our time, which requires no embellishment or need for beat-up, most forms of media have milked it for all its worth.
The relentless, hardline negativity of the coverage has been breathtaking to behold. Journalists have focused on every negative event or statistic with barely concealed glee and ignored the positives. There’s been a stark absence of balance.
We’ve had graphic depictions of the jobs lost and the Centrelink queues, but the considerable number of new positions being created by thriving businesses has been largely ignored. We’ve heard about the new coronavirus cases and each death is morbid detail but not about the numbers who have recovered nor about evidence of the curve flattening.
I’ve spoken to many people who say they have stopped tuning into news bulletins because they’re fed up with the negativity and the absence of any kind of helpful spirit in our media. I totally sympathize. I’ve stopped watching ABC television news, as one example, because of their tabloid mentality. The only place I can find balanced coverage is SBS television.
Australia is full of frightened people. No one has experienced anything quite like this and people are justifiably scared about the health issues, the economic consequences and the disintegration of normal life. And our media is making if worse – far worse than it needs to be.
One of the factors evident here is an absence of understanding by journalists of what their customers want from them. I don’t think the average journo spends a single moment of any day thinking about the needs of the people who buy their products. It’s all about the story, the headline - the more sensationally negative the better and to hell with the consequences.
And so we come the coverage of the property price data for the month of March, published last week. The raw data was a good news story amid the carnage. Every capital city and all the regional markets bar one recorded growth in house prices during March.
Given that the first share market meltdown occurred on 20 February and the event that’s causing the economic crisis is gargantuan, I would have expected some kind of adverse reaction in the housing market in March, but there wasn’t one. And that’s remarkable, but you wouldn’t know if from the miserable response of mainstream media.
Here’s a sample of the headlines:
• Ominous signs the property market is running out of steam – and fast. • Storms clouds roll over national house prices. • Frightening detail hidden in housing data. • Don’t expect property prices to rise this year. • It’s just a matter of time before coronavirus reduces property gains. • Housing market not immune as cracks show in Sydney and Melbourne. • Housing values slowing rapidly as virus weakens consumer sentiment.
The worst of the negativity has come from Fairfax newspapers, headed by the Australian Financial Review, which tends to regard residential real estate as something to be attacked rather than reported.
One Fairfax journo illustrated the mentality with this introduction to an article: “The news from CoreLogic that residential property values continued to climb in March looks positive at first blush – but a deeper delve shows signs are starting to emerge ….”
This is standard procedure for some journos: ignore the positives and keep digging until you find a negative and focus on that. And if you can’t find a negative among the facts, you can always call the usual suspects who are willing to make doomsday forecasts. Some property writers have them on speed dial.
We all know the analogy about those who see the glass half full and those who perceive it as half empty. There’s a third category for Fairfax journalists – those who see the glass as completely empty.
It’s beyond sad. If you had a friend or family member with this kind of mentality, you would be urging them to seek help from a mental health professional.
I’m not kidding myself that real estate is immune to a virus-induced downturn. It’s still early in the story and some markets will take a hit. But I do expect it to be short-term and I do expect a notable recovery.
And I do think it remarkable that real estate survived the March we have just had with values rising in virtually every market across the nation. It says something about the strength of our markets going into the crisis and resilience of real estate in times of adversity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Media is overlooking the positive and regurgitating negativity: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
How long does it take a young couple to save a deposit to buy a first home in the current environment? Less than a year in most of our capital cities and less than 18 months in Sydney. 
But you wouldn’t know it if you’ve tuned into the headlines over the past week, in the wake of another piece of bogus “research” generated by a publicity-seeker. Media treatment of this “report” would have us believe it takes over six years for the typical young couple to save a deposit.
How did we arrive at this disconnect between reality and media perception? Because nobody in the process gives a damn about being helpful to people. The only objective is the headline.
Media loves a story declaring young Australians can’t afford to buy – or that the road to home ownership is impossibly long and arduous.
The reality contradicts the notion that young individuals and couples are priced out of the market, but journalists will never let the facts get in the way of a clickbait headline. And their desire to publish dire scenarios is fuelled by apparently credible research organisations whose motive is to generate publicity.
The headlines in the past week claimed it took first-home buyers over six years to save a deposit to buy a home. I saw reports in major newspapers, on television news bulletins and in online news services. One headline shouted “FHBs bearing heavier deposit burden” and another said “FHBs take six and a half years to afford their first home”. For the source of the report, mission accomplished.
In each case, the figures from a press release were recycled as fact without question or scrutiny. Such is journalism in modern Australia.
The headlines were based on a scenario that has no relationship to the reality for most young Australians. The headlines – and the report that generated them – were based on the notion that typical first-timers need a 20% deposit, that they must buy a house rather than a unit, and that they’re buying in Sydney or Melbourne.
For nine out of 10 young adults wanting to buy their first home, that scenario is not their reality. A more likely situation is a 5% deposit to buy lower-priced home, possibly an apartment, in Brisbane or Perth or Ballarat or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast – or a block of land to build a new home with the help of the HomeBuilder grant.
The reality is that first-home buyers are having a feeding frenzy in real estate markets across Australia. They comprise the most active cohort in the housing market. This is showing up in the lending figures, in the sales data and in anecdotal evidence from people at the coal-face of markets across the nation.
I would argue there’s never been a better time to be a first-home buyer in Australia, provided you have secure employment. Interest rates have never been lower and the level of government assistance has never been higher. Investors are largely dormant so first-timers are not having to compete with investors as much as before. You can borrow cheap from banks who want your business, you can pocket incentives from federal and state governments, and get into your first home with an ease that has never existed before.
Because of one federal scheme, you need only a 5% deposit. Thanks to another, you can get a $25,000 handout to build a new home. State assistance schemes provide more handouts. You can borrow with an interest rate that starts with a 2. And you’ll pay little or no stamp duty.
Aussie Home Loans data suggests that home loan pre-approvals have grown 71% since the start of the year and over half of all pre-approvals are for the first-home buyers.
Research published earlier this month indicated that, in most locations across Australia, it’s now cheaper to buy than to rent.
And yet media of all kinds have gone ballistic with claims that first-home hopefuls are having to save for over six years before being able to contemplate looking for a home.
It was all based on a typically bogus research report from Domain, a supposedly credible research source. They managed to come up with a negative scenario by doing what research like this always does: focus on how long it takes to save a 20% deposit to buy a house in the nation’s most expensive cities.
The scenario presented was irrelevant to most young people seeking to buy a first home.
How about presenting a realistic and relevant scenario? How long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price ranges in Perth – or Brisbane or Hobart? How long does it take to save a small deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or in a middle ring suburb of Melbourne? Or a home in Bendigo or Wagga Wagga or Launceston or Mackay. These are the places where most Australians live.
And the answers are …
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">If you’re the typical young couple buying an entry-level unit in Brisbane, it takes just nine months to save a 5% deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">In Perth, it would take only seven months and in Darwin just five months to save the necessary deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">Even in Sydney it takes only one year and four months to save the necessary deposit for an entry-level unit. And 12 months in Melbourne.</li>
<li class="li1">For those who prefer houses, they can save a 5% deposit for an entry level home is in a year or less in Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin. In Brisbane and Canberra, it’s slightly more than a year.</li>
<li class="li1">In Sydney and Melbourne, the typical young couple can get together the required deposit to buy an entry-level house in around 18 months.</li>
</ul>
That information, I should point out, was contained within the Domain First Home Buyer Report. But it was buried in the detail and given no emphasis in the analysis, or the press releases pumped out by Domain, or by media that lapped up the material that was highlighted – i.e. it takes six or more years to save a 20% deposit for a house in our two biggest cities.
Why? Because the headline is the thing. And the truth is optional.
They’re driven by a desire to generate publicity. And media is happy to play along, because journalists care even less about helping their customers. It’s simply not how they think.
Sad but true.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au </a>twitter.com/hotspotting
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First home buyer deposit saving estimates way off: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australian is on the cusp of a national real estate boom. And I do emphasise “national”.
We haven’t had a genuine national real estate boom in Australia since the one from 2001 to 2004, when all the major markets experienced strong price rises.
The one that drove Sydney and Melbourne prices higher from 2013 to 2017 was not a nationwide phenomena, as few other locations around the nation shared that price uplift.
But right now forces are building which will generate growth in most major cities and towns across the nation. They will be boosted by new events which will energise economies, including infrastructure spending and increased activity in the resources sector.
We currently have a remarkably strong situation with markets across Australia – everywhere, in fact, except the two biggest cities, which are so often the exception rather than the rule.
The new price data from CoreLogic suggests that all capital cities except Sydney and Melbourne had price growth in September, while most regional market jurisdictions also recorded growth. The September figures continued the stubborn performance of markets since February when the pandemic first started to impact Australia.
Many of our capital cities have recorded some level of house price growth in most months since February. Canberra has had growth in each of the past seven months and Adelaide has had uplift in six of the seven months.
Regional markets around Australia are pumping strongly, with vacancies ultra low, rents rising and buyers outnumbering sellers. People at the coal-face of these markets, including buyers agents, valuers and selling agents, have been reporting very competitive markets for several months – and the data supports those views.
So I would argue that significant sections of the nation already have notable up-cycles under way, particularly those where the virus has been got under control early, local economies are strong, consumer confidence is good, vacancies are low, first-home buyers are active and the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is having an impact.
Some locations have most or all of those factors in play. Those places include Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and regional centres like Ballarat, Bendigo, Albury-Wodonga, Orange, Newcastle, the Sunshine Coast, Mackay, Rockhampton and Townsville.
Of the 15 major market jurisdictions in Australia – eight capital cities and seven state/territory regional markets – 11 have house prices higher than at the start of 2020, led by Regional Tasmania (up 7.1%) and Darwin (up 6.6%), as well as Hobart, Canberra, Regional NSW and Regional South Australia (all up 4-5% since the start of the year).
Twelve of the 15 jurisdictions have house prices higher than a year ago. For apartments, 11 of the 15 locations have prices higher than a year ago.
This means there is a groundswell of positive factors, a rising tide of markets – particularly outside the two biggest cities, which is where two-thirds of Australians live.
Against that background, there are positive forces building which will turbocharge the situation and create a national property boom.
We have seen that local economies and property markets have charged out of lockdown phases with considerable exuberance. We can also get a message from New Zealand, where the economy has continued to emit positive signals and property prices have been rising strongly right across that country.
The more our local economies return to normal, with Melbourne recovering and state border restrictions easing, the more we will see improved confidence and rising market activity.
But the big looming factor is the upcoming infrastructure spend – and, partly as a by-product, considerable uplift in the resources sector.
It is clear that federal and state governments intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery and are willing to go deep into budget deficit to achieve it.
Few things supercharge economies and real estate markets like big infrastructure projects, be they motorways, rail links, hospitals or energy facilities.
Infrastructure developments create economic activity and jobs – and the energises property markets. These projects also improve the amenity of the locations that are directly impacted by the new projects.
A by-product of the infrastructure-inspired recovery will be a new resources boom, with that sector already busy servicing overseas demand.
Another big factor which will drive prices higher is the extraordinary shortage of real estate in most locations in Australia. Vacancy rates of 1% and lower are the norm now and it’s putting upward pressure on rents. Developers have been building less in the past 2-3 years and investors have been largely on the sidelines for the past 18 months in particular. The rental stock the market needs has not been created at the required levels.
At the same time, vendors have been reticent – which means that buyers outnumber sellers in many locations.
Recently we have seen economists from the major banks and other institutions recanting their March-April forecasts of real estate prices dropping 10%, 20% or 30% - and are now suggesting much more moderate outcomes. Westpac is now predicting boom-level price growth starting in mid-2021.
While they and others are becoming increasingly bullish for their predictions, they’re still getting it wrong. Prices may be nudging downwards, generally speaking, in Melbourne and Sydney but they are rising in most other places. And the big uplift will come much sooner than the economists expect.
We’re starting to see media reacting to the change in sentiment, although well behind the game as usual. Here are some of the headlines from the past week:
<ul>
<li>Top End of housing market will lead recovery – The Australian</li>
<li>Housing bears face extinction as forecasts turn bullish – Financial Review</li>
<li>Regional house price rises on the way – Financial Review</li>
<li>House prices bounce in September – ABC News</li>
<li>Houses emerge stronger over September as Sydney and Melbourne declines soften: Property Observer</li>
<li>Are we nearing another property boom? – Smart Property Investor</li>
<li>Victoria set for big summer of sales post-lockdown – Australian Property Investor</li>
<li>Huge sign the property market is heading up again – Yahoo Finance</li>
</ul>
This is significant because mainstream media is reluctant to present positive scenarios about the housing market.
I note also that Simon Pressley of Propertyology – who I think is the best real estate research analyst in Australia - is also predicting a property boom.
He writes in a report published last week: “Make no mistake, property markets in large parts of Australia will be booming by summer! Several locations in different parts of the country have already produced double-digit capital growth over the first 9-months of this calendar year and there are umpteen others with fast growing momentum.
“Anecdotal evidence from research conducted by Propertyology suggests that property markets are already booming in locations such as Noosa, Canberra, Orange, Dubbo, Burnie, Bendigo, Mildura, Mount Gambier, Coffs Harbour and Karratha. That’s ten towns in seven states and territories.
The cast of thousands who, during the March-April national lockdown, were forecasting a real estate Armageddon score an epic ‘Fail’.”
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australia on the cusp of a national real estate boom: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Federal and state political leaders intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery in Australia. And this will turbocharge a residential property boom which is already building across the nation. 
<div>Infrastructure spending is always a key driver of growth in residential property markets and government plans to fast-track shovel-ready projects will enhance the established trend of rising markets in many parts of Australia.</div>
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<div>That’s why we created a new report titled “Australia’s Infrastructure-led Property Boom: National Top 10 Hotspots”.</div>
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<div>The research conducted daily by the Hotspotting team places considerable emphasis on infrastructure.</div>
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<div>The best places to invest have impact from infrastructure in two key ways: excellent existing infrastructure (public transport, schools, medical services, retail outlets, etc) and spending on new infrastructure.</div>
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<div>New infrastructure is particularly influential on generating growth in residential property markets. Our belief is that no other factor impacts property markets as strongly as major new infrastructure spending.</div>
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<div>Infrastructure such as new motorways, rail links, hospitals and universities improve the amenity and desirability of the locations directly impacted.</div>
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<div>These projects generate major economic activity and employment – and from that flows demand for real estate.</div>
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<div>From 2013 to 2017 both Sydney and Melbourne had significant real estate booms, but this was not replicated in other parts of Australia. During that period, the markets in Perth and Darwin were in reverse, and those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were largely stagnating.</div>
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<div>The fundamental difference was the infrastructure spend. Both Sydney and Melbourne were spending tens of billions of dollars on new infrastructure. As a consequence, the economies of the two biggest cities were strong, as a time when the other cities were weak or in decline.</div>
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<div>We have seen major infrastructure spending transform local economies and their property markets in many significant regional cities across Australia. Projects totalling more than $20 billion have transformed the Sunshine Coast from a tourist town to an international city and it currently has one of the strongest property markets anywhere in Australia.</div>
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<div>Newcastle, Geelong and Wollongong are all regional cities which have transitioned by older-style economies based on manufacturing to prosperous modern economies through spending on new infrastructure and the generation of new employment sectors. Growth property markets have emerged from the transition in these places.</div>
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<div>The recent Federal Budget provided evidence that the Australian Government intends the past-pandemic economic recovery to be largely inspired by spending on major projects across the nation. It’s also clear that State Governments are ramping up their spending on roads, rail links and other projects to generate jobs.</div>
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<div>In the new National Top 10 report we highlight ten locations which are poised for growth as a result of big spending on new infrastructure. They include some locations which might now normally blip on the radar screens of property investors, like Toowoomba in Queensland.</div>
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<div>More potential hotspots will emerge as governments firm up their plans and announce start dates for major developments.</div>
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Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="http://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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Infrastructure boom setting up a property boom: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Victoria continues to be a national leader of price performance. No other market jurisdiction in Australia has such a high percentage of locations delivering price growth.
In the past 12 months, 92% of towns and suburbs across Regional Victoria have had growth in their median house prices. Most have increased by more than 5% and many have had double-digit growth.
It’s all part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, a trend which (contrary to many media reports) did not arise out of the pandemic – it was well under way before 2020 and has been turbo-charged by the lockdown periods.
It’s a trend that first became evident with the rise of markets close to Melbourne three or so years ago, and continues to be a major force in Regional Victoria.
The standouts are Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong, but there are growth markets spread right across the state – from Portland, Warrnambool and Mildura in the west and north-west, to Wodonga in the north and the towns of East Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley in the east.
Most of the suburbs of Ballarat (pictured top), have had double-digit annual growth in their median house prices, including Redan (15%), Alfredton (11%), Ballarat Central (13%), Brown Hill (10%), Canadian (12%), Sebastopol (15%) and Mt Clear (10%).
Bendigo is a little further back in the cycle than Ballarat, but is now delivering growth at comparable levels, led by Strathdale (17%), California Gully (15%) and Eaglehawk (13%).
White Hills, Strathfieldsaye and East Bendigo have all grown 10-11%, while numerous other suburbs have had 8-9% increases over 12 months, including Flora Hill, Kangaroo Flat, North Bendigo, Long Gully and Epsom.
The City of Greater Geelong was the first the regional cities to get on the growth path and has now had 3-4 years of rising prices. But many suburbs are still delivering good uplift in their median prices, led by Drysdale (10%), East Geelong (13%) and Newtown (10%).
Elsewhere, the Strathbogie LGA is a standout, with both Euroa (up 17%) and Nagambie (up 20%) showing exceptional growth.
In the far west of the state, Portland continues to rise, with its median house price up 15%. Warrnambool is another western centre with good growth, up 10% over 12 months.
In other parts of the state, Myrtleford (13%), West Wodonga (10%), Swan Hill (10%), Maddingley (11%), and Beechworth (10%) have all done well.
Overall, Regional Victoria is one of many market jurisdictions which rubbish the general line in mainstream media that house prices in Australia are now recovering after a Covid downturn. In most locations across Australia, notably including Regional Victoria, there never was a downturn.
What we’ve seen, and continue to see, is something approaching a boom.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a> twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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