<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Brisbane market has shrugged off the impacts of the pandemic and is in its strongest position in five years to generate price growth. Increasingly, this is translating into evidence of uplift in property values.
Our analysis of sales activity across the Brisbane metropolitan area has identified 56 suburbs with rising momentum, the highest number since late in 2015 and double the number identified in our quarterly survey six months ago.
The numbers show an all-round improvement in the Brisbane market, with a sharp reduction in the number of declining suburbs and a reduction also in the number of danger markets.
Brisbane’s affordability relative to the biggest cities is helping to boost its market, with more people relocating to South-East Queensland from Sydney and other parts of Australia. Brisbane is a natural beneficiary of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and is also benefiting from strong consumer confidence as a result of the success in controlling Covid-19.
It’s notable that Brisbane is prominent in the forecasts for prices in 2021 from the major banks. The NAB Residential Property Survey is tipping Brisbane to be the joint leader on dwelling price growth next year, alongside Adelaide and Hobart – with a 7.4% annual rise and similar growth in 2022.
I think this is a tad conservative – and so does ANZ, which is forecasting Brisbane to rise almost 10% next year, with only Perth tipped to do better. Westpac and Commonwealth Bank have also tipped good growth in 2021.
In the six years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices, it has been common for northern Brisbane to dominate the positive results – and that is certainly the case in this Summer 2020 survey. Of the 56 suburbs with rising sales activity, 12 are in the Brisbane-north precinct of the Brisbane City Council area and 13 are in the neighbouring Moreton Bay Region.
Both precincts also have a high number of suburbs with consistent sales activity across multiple successive quarters, a notable achievement given the negative pressures in this year of the pandemic.
The rising suburbs in the north of Greater Brisbane include Murrumba Downs (where quarterly sales activity has been 39 44 73), Ashgrove (quarterly sales 54 57 60 72 76 50 78) and Bellara (quarterly sales 23 30 26 40)
While the most prolific markets are in the north, there also has been a notable revival in Logan City in the south. The municipality is the urban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast and traditionally attracts buyers seeking cheap real estate and good infrastructure.
Logan City markets have been in the doldrums in recent years: six months ago we identified 12 suburbs with a pattern of declining sales, but only five in this latest survey – and there are now nine suburbs with rising sales momentum. At a time when first-home buyers are very active and others are seeking an affordable lifestyle, it’s perhaps not surprising that Logan City would show signs of uplift.
Nearby Ipswich City – another centre of affordable buying in the south-west of the metro area – has only two growth suburbs, so Logan City is the standout of southern Brisbane.
There are growth markets in other parts of the Greater Brisbane area as well – Brisbane-inner (4), Brisbane-east (5), Brisbane-south (3) Brisbane-west (3) and Redland City (5) all have some suburbs with rising sales activity.
There are still six suburbs we classify as danger markets, but that is half as many as two years ago. These are all inner-city suburbs where the market is dominated by high-rise apartments and where vacancy rates continue to be high, in contrast to the rest of the Greater Brisbane Area, and sales rates remain low.
Our analysis of price trends across the Brisbane metropolitan area shows that most suburbs have recorded house price growth in the last 12 months, but an even higher percentage have had growth in the most recent quarter.
This again shows that the city has done well through the pandemic period.
Our analysis shows that 62% of suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, but 73% have had uplift in the latest quarter.
It’s clear that the top end of the Brisbane market is doing best in this climate, driven partly by the reality that highly-ranked, well-located suburbs in this city often have median house prices in the $800,000s and $900,000s. For people leaving Sydney and Melbourne to relocate to South-East Queensland as part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, this looks attractive.
Suburbs to record annual median house price growth above 20% include Highgate Hill (28%), Fig Tree Pocket (25%), Nundah (20%) and Windsor (21%).
The inner-city house markets (in contrast to the apartment markets) are doing well, with good annual price growth in Bardon (10%) and Coorparoo (15%), as well as Highgate Hill.
Inner northern suburbs are also performing, including Grange (17%), Windsor and Nundah.
The upper end western suburbs are a standout. In addition to Fig Tree Pocket, there has been strong annual growth in median house prices in Sherwood (12%), St Lucia (14%) and Toowong (13%).
In the south, Yeronga (15%) and Greenslopes (10%) have done well, while in the affordable far north, there has been notable uplift in Woody Point (15%) and Beachmere (10%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane set to be Australia's property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER

The greatest fiction generated in mainstream media in 2020 is that prices have risen because we have record low interest rates.

In March/April economists and others were lining up to predict a collapse in residential property values because of the pandemic impact. Some forecast price decline as large as 20% to 30%.

Four or five months later, the usual suspects were lining up again to “revise” their forecasts. They were forced to admit they got it wrong and were now predicting much more bullish outcomes for dwelling values. Some of the bank economists are now expecting boom-level price growth in 2021.

Asked to explain why prices have held up so well, the standard answer is “record low interest rates” - a response that shows how little they know about house markets. We entered the pandemic period with record low interest rates and very little has changed.

Those who have recently explained everything real estate with the cheap cost of finance include AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, Domain analyst Nicola Powell, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, ABC business editor Ian Verrender, NAB chief economist Alan Oster and economists speaking on behalf of ANZ, Westpac and the CBA.

The “record low interest rates” rationale is the go-to response for pontificators who have limited knowledge of residential property dynamics.

When Sydney and Melbourne were having their price booms from 2013 to 2017, the standard explanation from economists was “record low interest rates”. They were unable to explain why prices were falling at the same time in Perth and Darwin, and stagnating in other capital cities like Brisbane and Adelaide.

Record low interest rates were still very much in place when the two biggest cities experienced their post-boom correction, with prices falling in 2018 and the first half of 2019.

When markets generally picked up in the second half of 2019, economists again rolled out their interest-rates arguments, ignoring the impact of the multiple other events that jointly had a huge impact, including the Federal Election result, the relaxation of lending rules by APRA and the announcement of tax cuts.

So now we have most markets rising, regardless of the pandemic-induced short recession, and record-low interest rates are again the standard answer. But little had changed with mortgage rates - the RBA has shaved a miniscule 0.15 of a percentage point off the official cash rate, but this hasn’t had any noticeable impact on the mortgage rates that typical home owners and investors are paying.

And it beggars belief that Australian consumers have only recently noticed that finance is cheap. It’s been the case for years.

I would also point out that the last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising.

History shows we’re more likely to have a genuine national boom in periods when rates are high, because it means the economy is booming, consumers are spending and the people who pull the levers are trying to dampen things down (and usually not succeeding) by lifting the official interest rate.

In the late 1980s and during the 2001-02-03 boom, they kept putting up interest rates and the property booms raged on.

Right now interest rates are low because the economy is struggling - a time when people are less likely to be bullish and spending big on real estate.

So, given that interest rates are clearly not an acceptable explanation, why have property markets held up so well in 2020?

As with all things in real estate, there are many different factors working in unison.

The national economy was been stronger than predicted. The recession was muted and lasted only one quarter. Unemployment did not go into double digits as economists predicted. More importantly, many local economies have been strong through the pandemic period.

With the exception of Melbourne, most of the nation got the virus under control early and it’s been busy as usual, apart from the closure of state borders.

Many Australians have sought the safety and solidity of bricks and mortar. Various surveys have shown that consumers have rated residential real estate highly as an asset class in 2020 – and it has not disappointed them.

Government stimulus measures and support from lenders has made a big difference. Support was not switched off at the end of September (economists got that prediction wrong as well) and continues to have an impact.

First-home buyers have been highly active, boosted by record levels of government aid.

Vacancy rates are ultra-low in most locations, putting upward pressure on rents and prices.

The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, the most powerful trend estate rend this century, is driving strong demand in regional markets and the smaller capital cities.

Expats returning home to the relative safety of Australia have more than compensated for the absence of overseas migrants coming into the country.

The combination of all those factors have allowed housing markets to resist the negative forces of the pandemic and to not only survive but thrive in 2020.

It’s put residential real estate in a strong position heading into the New Year.

Stand by for the infrastructure-led property boom in 2021.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising



terryryder

Record low interest rates not the reason the housing market didn't collapse: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Regional NSW is showing nation-leading strength, with a record number of towns and suburbs recording growth in their sales activity in our new quarterly survey.

A total of 116 locations have rising markets, easily the highest number in the six years that Hotspotting has been conducting its quarterly surveys. The previous best were 70 growth locations in a mid-2018 survey and 77 late in 2019.

The results show evidence of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend which is sweeping the nation, with growth markets right across the state but most noticeably in locations close to Sydney.

The No.1 market, by a considerable margin, is the Central Coast. As the closest sea change market to Sydney, this market is getting significant uplift from the Exodus trend. There are 17 suburbs with rising sales activity and we expect strong price growth in the near future.

South of Sydney, the Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGA jointly have 10 suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.

Hill change markets within striking distance of Sydney are also rising, including the Blue Mountains (where four locations have rising sales activity) and the Southern Highlands (with five towns in the Wingecarribee LGA having upward sales momentum – refer below for data on price growth).

The Queanbeyan-Palerang LGA just outside Canberra is also thriving – it has five locations with rising sales activity. Nearby Goulburn is also a growth market.

The data for Newcastle is somewhat muted – it has only five growth suburbs, which is a small number for a city of its size in the current circumstances.

But neighbouring municipalities are doing better: Lake Macquarie has six growth suburbs, while Hunter Valley LGAs like Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook jointly have seven growth locations – with the Maitland LGA the standout.

The growth momentum has now spread further afield, with strength evident in markets like Orange, Bathurst, Dubbo, Armidale, Tamworth, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Albury and Wagga Wagga.

The strategic regional cities of Tamworth and Wagga Wagga both have five suburbs with rising sales activity.

In the Eurobodalla LGA on the state’s south coast, there is growth impetus in Malua Bay, Moruya and Tuross Head.

In terms of price performance, Regional NSW has done well in the past 12 months but in particular in the latest quarter.

Two-thirds of locations across Regional NSW have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, but eight out ten have recorded uplift in the most recent quarter.

This indicates that the regional areas of the state have had an uplift in price performance recently, with the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle a major influence.

The outcomes in annual terms include 67% of locations with apartment markets recording increases in their median unit prices and 65% of locations also having increases in median house prices.

Multiple locations have delivered double-digit increases in their median house prices over the past 12 months.

The Southern Highlands region south of Sydney is a standout. Median prices are up strongly in Bowral (23%), Burradoo (13%) and Mittagong (10%), boosted by the trend of people relocating from the big cities to lifestyle locations.

Parts of the Wollongong market are showing signs of benefiting from the trend, with Bulli up 13% and Thirroul up 18%. The Central Coast is a natural beneficiary also and several suburbs have delivered strong rises, including Umina Beach (10%) and Wyong (15%).

Ballina is also doing well, with annual median price increases in the suburbs of Ballina (15%), East Ballina (10%) and West Ballina (12%). Further north, locations in Tweed Shire are rising, including Kingscliff (12%) and Murwillumbah (10%).

In the far south of the state, the Wagga Wagga region continues to be a strongly-performing market, with median house prices rising in Lake Albert (11%), Mt Austin (11%) and Wagga Wagga (14%).

Growth markets are sprinkled throughout the regional areas of the state and across different price ranges. They include Caves Beach (up 11% to $870,000), Corowa (up 11% to $265,000), Inverell (up 11% to $290,000), Kyogle (up 12% to $300,000), Maitland (up 15% to $460,000), Malua Bay (up 24% to $640,000), South Grafton (up 12% to $280,000), Windradyne (up 11% to $460,000), Yass (up 18% to $500,000) and Young (up 11% to $310,000).

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 
ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting 
 
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Regional NSW property market showing nation-leading strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Victoria continues to be a national leader of price performance. No other market jurisdiction in Australia has such a high percentage of locations delivering price growth.
In the past 12 months, 92% of towns and suburbs across Regional Victoria have had growth in their median house prices. Most have increased by more than 5% and many have had double-digit growth.
It’s all part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, a trend which (contrary to many media reports) did not arise out of the pandemic – it was well under way before 2020 and has been turbo-charged by the lockdown periods.
It’s a trend that first became evident with the rise of markets close to Melbourne three or so years ago, and continues to be a major force in Regional Victoria.
The standouts are Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong, but there are growth markets spread right across the state – from Portland, Warrnambool and Mildura in the west and north-west, to Wodonga in the north and the towns of East Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley in the east.
Most of the suburbs of Ballarat (pictured top), have had double-digit annual growth in their median house prices, including Redan (15%), Alfredton (11%), Ballarat Central (13%), Brown Hill (10%), Canadian (12%), Sebastopol (15%) and Mt Clear (10%).
Bendigo is a little further back in the cycle than Ballarat, but is now delivering growth at comparable levels, led by Strathdale (17%), California Gully (15%) and Eaglehawk (13%).
White Hills, Strathfieldsaye and East Bendigo have all grown 10-11%, while numerous other suburbs have had 8-9% increases over 12 months, including Flora Hill, Kangaroo Flat, North Bendigo, Long Gully and Epsom.
The City of Greater Geelong was the first the regional cities to get on the growth path and has now had 3-4 years of rising prices. But many suburbs are still delivering good uplift in their median prices, led by Drysdale (10%), East Geelong (13%) and Newtown (10%).
Elsewhere, the Strathbogie LGA is a standout, with both Euroa (up 17%) and Nagambie (up 20%) showing exceptional growth.
In the far west of the state, Portland continues to rise, with its median house price up 15%. Warrnambool is another western centre with good growth, up 10% over 12 months.
In other parts of the state, Myrtleford (13%), West Wodonga (10%), Swan Hill (10%), Maddingley (11%), and Beechworth (10%) have all done well.
Overall, Regional Victoria is one of many market jurisdictions which rubbish the general line in mainstream media that house prices in Australia are now recovering after a Covid downturn. In most locations across Australia, notably including Regional Victoria, there never was a downturn.
What we’ve seen, and continue to see, is something approaching a boom.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a> twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Regional Victoria leads Australia in property price performance: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Federal and state political leaders intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery in Australia. And this will turbocharge a residential property boom which is already building across the nation. 
<div>Infrastructure spending is always a key driver of growth in residential property markets and government plans to fast-track shovel-ready projects will enhance the established trend of rising markets in many parts of Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That’s why we created a new report titled “Australia’s Infrastructure-led Property Boom: National Top 10 Hotspots”.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The research conducted daily by the Hotspotting team places considerable emphasis on infrastructure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The best places to invest have impact from infrastructure in two key ways: excellent existing infrastructure (public transport, schools, medical services, retail outlets, etc) and spending on new infrastructure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New infrastructure is particularly influential on generating growth in residential property markets. Our belief is that no other factor impacts property markets as strongly as major new infrastructure spending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Infrastructure such as new motorways, rail links, hospitals and universities improve the amenity and desirability of the locations directly impacted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These projects generate major economic activity and employment – and from that flows demand for real estate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From 2013 to 2017 both Sydney and Melbourne had significant real estate booms, but this was not replicated in other parts of Australia. During that period, the markets in Perth and Darwin were in reverse, and those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were largely stagnating.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The fundamental difference was the infrastructure spend. Both Sydney and Melbourne were spending tens of billions of dollars on new infrastructure. As a consequence, the economies of the two biggest cities were strong, as a time when the other cities were weak or in decline.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We have seen major infrastructure spending transform local economies and their property markets in many significant regional cities across Australia. Projects totalling more than $20 billion have transformed the Sunshine Coast from a tourist town to an international city and it currently has one of the strongest property markets anywhere in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Newcastle, Geelong and Wollongong are all regional cities which have transitioned by older-style economies based on manufacturing to prosperous modern economies through spending on new infrastructure and the generation of new employment sectors. Growth property markets have emerged from the transition in these places.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The recent Federal Budget provided evidence that the Australian Government intends the past-pandemic economic recovery to be largely inspired by spending on major projects across the nation. It’s also clear that State Governments are ramping up their spending on roads, rail links and other projects to generate jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the new National Top 10 report we highlight ten locations which are poised for growth as a result of big spending on new infrastructure. They include some locations which might now normally blip on the radar screens of property investors, like Toowoomba in Queensland.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More potential hotspots will emerge as governments firm up their plans and announce start dates for major developments.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="http://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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<a href="http://twitter.com/hotspotting">twitter.com/hotspotting</a>
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Infrastructure boom setting up a property boom: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australian is on the cusp of a national real estate boom. And I do emphasise “national”.
We haven’t had a genuine national real estate boom in Australia since the one from 2001 to 2004, when all the major markets experienced strong price rises.
The one that drove Sydney and Melbourne prices higher from 2013 to 2017 was not a nationwide phenomena, as few other locations around the nation shared that price uplift.
But right now forces are building which will generate growth in most major cities and towns across the nation. They will be boosted by new events which will energise economies, including infrastructure spending and increased activity in the resources sector.
We currently have a remarkably strong situation with markets across Australia – everywhere, in fact, except the two biggest cities, which are so often the exception rather than the rule.
The new price data from CoreLogic suggests that all capital cities except Sydney and Melbourne had price growth in September, while most regional market jurisdictions also recorded growth. The September figures continued the stubborn performance of markets since February when the pandemic first started to impact Australia.
Many of our capital cities have recorded some level of house price growth in most months since February. Canberra has had growth in each of the past seven months and Adelaide has had uplift in six of the seven months.
Regional markets around Australia are pumping strongly, with vacancies ultra low, rents rising and buyers outnumbering sellers. People at the coal-face of these markets, including buyers agents, valuers and selling agents, have been reporting very competitive markets for several months – and the data supports those views.
So I would argue that significant sections of the nation already have notable up-cycles under way, particularly those where the virus has been got under control early, local economies are strong, consumer confidence is good, vacancies are low, first-home buyers are active and the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is having an impact.
Some locations have most or all of those factors in play. Those places include Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and regional centres like Ballarat, Bendigo, Albury-Wodonga, Orange, Newcastle, the Sunshine Coast, Mackay, Rockhampton and Townsville.
Of the 15 major market jurisdictions in Australia – eight capital cities and seven state/territory regional markets – 11 have house prices higher than at the start of 2020, led by Regional Tasmania (up 7.1%) and Darwin (up 6.6%), as well as Hobart, Canberra, Regional NSW and Regional South Australia (all up 4-5% since the start of the year).
Twelve of the 15 jurisdictions have house prices higher than a year ago. For apartments, 11 of the 15 locations have prices higher than a year ago.
This means there is a groundswell of positive factors, a rising tide of markets – particularly outside the two biggest cities, which is where two-thirds of Australians live.
Against that background, there are positive forces building which will turbocharge the situation and create a national property boom.
We have seen that local economies and property markets have charged out of lockdown phases with considerable exuberance. We can also get a message from New Zealand, where the economy has continued to emit positive signals and property prices have been rising strongly right across that country.
The more our local economies return to normal, with Melbourne recovering and state border restrictions easing, the more we will see improved confidence and rising market activity.
But the big looming factor is the upcoming infrastructure spend – and, partly as a by-product, considerable uplift in the resources sector.
It is clear that federal and state governments intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery and are willing to go deep into budget deficit to achieve it.
Few things supercharge economies and real estate markets like big infrastructure projects, be they motorways, rail links, hospitals or energy facilities.
Infrastructure developments create economic activity and jobs – and the energises property markets. These projects also improve the amenity of the locations that are directly impacted by the new projects.
A by-product of the infrastructure-inspired recovery will be a new resources boom, with that sector already busy servicing overseas demand.
Another big factor which will drive prices higher is the extraordinary shortage of real estate in most locations in Australia. Vacancy rates of 1% and lower are the norm now and it’s putting upward pressure on rents. Developers have been building less in the past 2-3 years and investors have been largely on the sidelines for the past 18 months in particular. The rental stock the market needs has not been created at the required levels.
At the same time, vendors have been reticent – which means that buyers outnumber sellers in many locations.
Recently we have seen economists from the major banks and other institutions recanting their March-April forecasts of real estate prices dropping 10%, 20% or 30% - and are now suggesting much more moderate outcomes. Westpac is now predicting boom-level price growth starting in mid-2021.
While they and others are becoming increasingly bullish for their predictions, they’re still getting it wrong. Prices may be nudging downwards, generally speaking, in Melbourne and Sydney but they are rising in most other places. And the big uplift will come much sooner than the economists expect.
We’re starting to see media reacting to the change in sentiment, although well behind the game as usual. Here are some of the headlines from the past week:
<ul>
<li>Top End of housing market will lead recovery – The Australian</li>
<li>Housing bears face extinction as forecasts turn bullish – Financial Review</li>
<li>Regional house price rises on the way – Financial Review</li>
<li>House prices bounce in September – ABC News</li>
<li>Houses emerge stronger over September as Sydney and Melbourne declines soften: Property Observer</li>
<li>Are we nearing another property boom? – Smart Property Investor</li>
<li>Victoria set for big summer of sales post-lockdown – Australian Property Investor</li>
<li>Huge sign the property market is heading up again – Yahoo Finance</li>
</ul>
This is significant because mainstream media is reluctant to present positive scenarios about the housing market.
I note also that Simon Pressley of Propertyology – who I think is the best real estate research analyst in Australia - is also predicting a property boom.
He writes in a report published last week: “Make no mistake, property markets in large parts of Australia will be booming by summer! Several locations in different parts of the country have already produced double-digit capital growth over the first 9-months of this calendar year and there are umpteen others with fast growing momentum.
“Anecdotal evidence from research conducted by Propertyology suggests that property markets are already booming in locations such as Noosa, Canberra, Orange, Dubbo, Burnie, Bendigo, Mildura, Mount Gambier, Coffs Harbour and Karratha. That’s ten towns in seven states and territories.
The cast of thousands who, during the March-April national lockdown, were forecasting a real estate Armageddon score an epic ‘Fail’.”
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australia on the cusp of a national real estate boom: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
How long does it take a young couple to save a deposit to buy a first home in the current environment? Less than a year in most of our capital cities and less than 18 months in Sydney. 
But you wouldn’t know it if you’ve tuned into the headlines over the past week, in the wake of another piece of bogus “research” generated by a publicity-seeker. Media treatment of this “report” would have us believe it takes over six years for the typical young couple to save a deposit.
How did we arrive at this disconnect between reality and media perception? Because nobody in the process gives a damn about being helpful to people. The only objective is the headline.
Media loves a story declaring young Australians can’t afford to buy – or that the road to home ownership is impossibly long and arduous.
The reality contradicts the notion that young individuals and couples are priced out of the market, but journalists will never let the facts get in the way of a clickbait headline. And their desire to publish dire scenarios is fuelled by apparently credible research organisations whose motive is to generate publicity.
The headlines in the past week claimed it took first-home buyers over six years to save a deposit to buy a home. I saw reports in major newspapers, on television news bulletins and in online news services. One headline shouted “FHBs bearing heavier deposit burden” and another said “FHBs take six and a half years to afford their first home”. For the source of the report, mission accomplished.
In each case, the figures from a press release were recycled as fact without question or scrutiny. Such is journalism in modern Australia.
The headlines were based on a scenario that has no relationship to the reality for most young Australians. The headlines – and the report that generated them – were based on the notion that typical first-timers need a 20% deposit, that they must buy a house rather than a unit, and that they’re buying in Sydney or Melbourne.
For nine out of 10 young adults wanting to buy their first home, that scenario is not their reality. A more likely situation is a 5% deposit to buy lower-priced home, possibly an apartment, in Brisbane or Perth or Ballarat or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast – or a block of land to build a new home with the help of the HomeBuilder grant.
The reality is that first-home buyers are having a feeding frenzy in real estate markets across Australia. They comprise the most active cohort in the housing market. This is showing up in the lending figures, in the sales data and in anecdotal evidence from people at the coal-face of markets across the nation.
I would argue there’s never been a better time to be a first-home buyer in Australia, provided you have secure employment. Interest rates have never been lower and the level of government assistance has never been higher. Investors are largely dormant so first-timers are not having to compete with investors as much as before. You can borrow cheap from banks who want your business, you can pocket incentives from federal and state governments, and get into your first home with an ease that has never existed before.
Because of one federal scheme, you need only a 5% deposit. Thanks to another, you can get a $25,000 handout to build a new home. State assistance schemes provide more handouts. You can borrow with an interest rate that starts with a 2. And you’ll pay little or no stamp duty.
Aussie Home Loans data suggests that home loan pre-approvals have grown 71% since the start of the year and over half of all pre-approvals are for the first-home buyers.
Research published earlier this month indicated that, in most locations across Australia, it’s now cheaper to buy than to rent.
And yet media of all kinds have gone ballistic with claims that first-home hopefuls are having to save for over six years before being able to contemplate looking for a home.
It was all based on a typically bogus research report from Domain, a supposedly credible research source. They managed to come up with a negative scenario by doing what research like this always does: focus on how long it takes to save a 20% deposit to buy a house in the nation’s most expensive cities.
The scenario presented was irrelevant to most young people seeking to buy a first home.
How about presenting a realistic and relevant scenario? How long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price ranges in Perth – or Brisbane or Hobart? How long does it take to save a small deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or in a middle ring suburb of Melbourne? Or a home in Bendigo or Wagga Wagga or Launceston or Mackay. These are the places where most Australians live.
And the answers are …
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">If you’re the typical young couple buying an entry-level unit in Brisbane, it takes just nine months to save a 5% deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">In Perth, it would take only seven months and in Darwin just five months to save the necessary deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">Even in Sydney it takes only one year and four months to save the necessary deposit for an entry-level unit. And 12 months in Melbourne.</li>
<li class="li1">For those who prefer houses, they can save a 5% deposit for an entry level home is in a year or less in Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin. In Brisbane and Canberra, it’s slightly more than a year.</li>
<li class="li1">In Sydney and Melbourne, the typical young couple can get together the required deposit to buy an entry-level house in around 18 months.</li>
</ul>
That information, I should point out, was contained within the Domain First Home Buyer Report. But it was buried in the detail and given no emphasis in the analysis, or the press releases pumped out by Domain, or by media that lapped up the material that was highlighted – i.e. it takes six or more years to save a 20% deposit for a house in our two biggest cities.
Why? Because the headline is the thing. And the truth is optional.
They’re driven by a desire to generate publicity. And media is happy to play along, because journalists care even less about helping their customers. It’s simply not how they think.
Sad but true.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au </a>twitter.com/hotspotting
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First home buyer deposit saving estimates way off: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When media occasionally stops sensationalising negatives in real estate and focuses on positives, they often refer to well-performed locations as “bucking the trend”.
This implies that a market doing well in the current climate is the outlier, the exceptional to the rule.
They’re not. These places ARE the rule. Markets doing well aren’t bucking the trend, they ARE the trend.
Our major newspapers are misleading consumers because their journalists are glass-half-empty people. Some of them are glass-completely-empty people.
In their mindset, a positive outcome doesn’t fit their definition of news. They’re wrong and that’s why newspapers and magazines are failing. Consumers are fed up with non-experts saturating the airwaves with inaccuracies and distortions that misrepresent important issues.
One of the biggest stories in Australian real estate is that shortage of rental properties. Vacancies are ultra low is most markets across the nation. In some places, they’re the lowest ever recorded.
Places where tenants are competing for scarce rentals, offering more than the asking rents in some cases, aren’t bucking the trend. They’re very much on trend.
But many investors are unaware. If they’re readers of certain major newspapers, they’ll believe that the situation with big city CBD areas (which are among the few places where vacancies are high) is the norm across Australia.
Major media keeps declaring that “prices are falling across Australia”. It simply isn’t so. Locations where prices are holding the line or are rising outnumber those where prices are dropping.
But the focus of journalists, and the economists who feed them misinformation, is on Melbourne and Sydney, which drag down national averages and create the impression of weakness in markets everything. It ain’t so.
My observation is that Melbourne and Sydney have been the exception to the rule for most of the past decade. When the two biggest cities were having their property boom (2013 to 2017, generally speaking), media represented this as a national property boom. But it wasn’t happening elsewhere.
When Sydney and Melbourne went into their correction phases (2018 and the first half of 2019) , with prices falling, media presented this to the public as a national property slump. But, again, it wasn’t happening across the nation. There were significant growth markets across the nation, including smaller capital cities and many important regional markets.
The current slump in Melbourne and some parts of Sydney (not nearly as severe as predicted by the chattering economists) does not describe Australia. The two biggest cities are bucking the trend.
The trend is markets with good sales activity led by home buyers including first-home buyers, prices steady or rising, and vacancies very low with upward pressure on rents.
Investors are largely sitting on the sidelines because they’re herd animals, but eventually they’ll get the message – or at least some of them will.
Here are a couple of examples which are typical of scenarios happening around the country.
The regional city of Orange is a good fit with the prevailing trends in real estate, including the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle. It has a strong local economy, well suited to the times. The vacancy rate is 0.4%, prices have risen 5.5% in the past year, including 1.9% in the most recent quarter. Typical houses are in the $400,000s.
Similar sentiments apply to Mudgee in regional NSW – it’s getting buyers out of Sydney looking for a hill change. It has a strong and diverse economy, vacancies close to zero, median price up 7.5% in the past year, including 1.1% in the latest quarter.
The Hume municipality in Melbourne’s north is also tracking well, despite everything that Melbourne has been dealing with. It’s getting plenty of demand from first-home buyers and others moving out to seek an affordable lifestyle.
Vacancies are around 2%, despite the fact that this is a new growth area with high rates of new building. The median price is up 9% in the past year, including 1.2% in the most recent quarter.
Every day, as we go about our work doing research and writing reports for customers, we are coming across location after location with similar scenarios.
There are thousands of local markets that are doing well – sometimes despite the pandemic and in other cases because of the pandemic.
They are the trend, not the exception.
Wake up investors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Markets doing well are not the outlier: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
One definition suggests an economist is someone who can explain to you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn’t come true today.
This very apt description of the behaviour of economists is being seen daily in major media, on a wide range of subjects including residential real estate.
The chattering economists – who collectively comprise the most over-rated and thoroughly unnecessary profession in the world of business – have been very noisy in their attempts to exploit the pandemic for publicity.
But they’re constantly wrong and regularly re-frame their forecasts. It’s common for high-profile economists, like the ones who work for banks and other big institutions, to make a loud forecast about interest rates or GDP or property prices – and journalists will breathlessly report their views. 
Then two months later the same talking heads will announce new forecasts which contradict the ones they made 60 days earlier. They get away with it because journalists appear to believe that credibility is not important – the moniker “economist” is all you need.
But if you were a major company which based an important business decision on a forecast by Bill Evans or Shane Oliver – and then discovered a couple of months later that they had changed their forecast, you would be justifiably annoyed.
So, back in February-March when the pandemic first struck, economists were lining up to forecast that real estate prices would collapse. Predictions ranged from 20% to 30% - and, in some extreme cases, from the usual suspects, 40% in terms of the slump in house prices. 
According to most of them, the collapse was going to be immediate and dramatic, as we had already seen with share-markets.
So in early April, when the price data for March came out and showed prices rising in most cities, the economists and journalists quickly rationalised that away – as in: “Yes, but it’s early days, wait until next month …”
So in early May new price data was published and it again showed no evidence of anything other than enduring strength in real estate markets. The economist/media response was pretty much the same: “Yes, but we’ve haven’t seen the full impact yet, wait until we see the data in June …”
But the June figures showed further sturdiness and the response was the same. And again in July and again in August.
So here we are in September. The CoreLogic figures show that only two of the eight capital cities recorded decreases in house prices during August. In annual terms most cities and most state regional jurisdictions still have house pricing levels significantly higher than a year ago.
So we’ve been immersed in this pandemic shemozzle for six months and there’s been a huge economic and social impact, but still no evidence of real estate buckling under the weight of it all.
And still economists are refusing to admit their palpable incompetence, despite the fact that some of them have revised their forecasts to be less extreme than before.
The new rationalisation is: property prices haven’t fallen because of support measures by the Federal Government and the major banks – and when that’s wound back, prices will collapse.
But they’re wrong again. Once again, economists have failed to understand real estate dynamics or to admit that housing markets don’t fit neatly into their economic theories about how they should behave.
Most of Australia is not dramatically impacted by the pandemic – or certainly not in a negative way. For those important bits of Australia that exists outside of Sydney and Melbourne, which is where two-thirds of us live, there are no lockdowns or crippling restrictions – and people are just getting on with it.
They see market after market – in the smaller capital cities and in most regional areas – where …
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">buyers are active, 
</li>
<li class="li1">there’s not much for sale,</li>
<li class="li1">vacancies are ultra low,</li>
<li class="li1">rents are rising,</li>
<li class="li1">prices are solid or rising.</li>
</ul>
I’m having conversations every day with real estate professionals and consumers around the nation and I have yet to speak to anyone who is struggling. Even Melbourne businesses are finding ways to function amid Daniel Andrews’ spectacular mismanagement and are busy servicing their clients.
Certainly, my business has never been busier or more prosperous.
There a huge disconnect between media rhetoric and the reality for most Australians – the ones who don’t live in the two biggest cities where most of the chattering economists lurk.
FOOTNOTE: Here’s a clue on how to identify a charlatan – someone who pretends to be a real estate expert when they’re not. If they speak of Australian real estate as a single market, they’re a fraud so you can safely disregard them. That eliminates most of the high-profile economists in the land.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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