Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The Brisbane market has shrugged off the impacts of the pandemic and is in its strongest position in five years to generate price growth. Increasingly, this is translating into evidence of uplift in property values.
Our analysis of sales activity across the Brisbane metropolitan area has identified 56 suburbs with rising momentum, the highest number since late in 2015 and double the number identified in our quarterly survey six months ago.
The numbers show an all-round improvement in the Brisbane market, with a sharp reduction in the number of declining suburbs and a reduction also in the number of danger markets.
Brisbane’s affordability relative to the biggest cities is helping to boost its market, with more people relocating to South-East Queensland from Sydney and other parts of Australia. Brisbane is a natural beneficiary of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and is also benefiting from strong consumer confidence as a result of the success in controlling Covid-19.
It’s notable that Brisbane is prominent in the forecasts for prices in 2021 from the major banks. The NAB Residential Property Survey is tipping Brisbane to be the joint leader on dwelling price growth next year, alongside Adelaide and Hobart – with a 7.4% annual rise and similar growth in 2022.
I think this is a tad conservative – and so does ANZ, which is forecasting Brisbane to rise almost 10% next year, with only Perth tipped to do better. Westpac and Commonwealth Bank have also tipped good growth in 2021.
In the six years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices, it has been common for northern Brisbane to dominate the positive results – and that is certainly the case in this Summer 2020 survey. Of the 56 suburbs with rising sales activity, 12 are in the Brisbane-north precinct of the Brisbane City Council area and 13 are in the neighbouring Moreton Bay Region.
Both precincts also have a high number of suburbs with consistent sales activity across multiple successive quarters, a notable achievement given the negative pressures in this year of the pandemic.
The rising suburbs in the north of Greater Brisbane include Murrumba Downs (where quarterly sales activity has been 39 44 73), Ashgrove (quarterly sales 54 57 60 72 76 50 78) and Bellara (quarterly sales 23 30 26 40)
While the most prolific markets are in the north, there also has been a notable revival in Logan City in the south. The municipality is the urban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast and traditionally attracts buyers seeking cheap real estate and good infrastructure.
Logan City markets have been in the doldrums in recent years: six months ago we identified 12 suburbs with a pattern of declining sales, but only five in this latest survey – and there are now nine suburbs with rising sales momentum. At a time when first-home buyers are very active and others are seeking an affordable lifestyle, it’s perhaps not surprising that Logan City would show signs of uplift.
Nearby Ipswich City – another centre of affordable buying in the south-west of the metro area – has only two growth suburbs, so Logan City is the standout of southern Brisbane.
There are growth markets in other parts of the Greater Brisbane area as well – Brisbane-inner (4), Brisbane-east (5), Brisbane-south (3) Brisbane-west (3) and Redland City (5) all have some suburbs with rising sales activity.
There are still six suburbs we classify as danger markets, but that is half as many as two years ago. These are all inner-city suburbs where the market is dominated by high-rise apartments and where vacancy rates continue to be high, in contrast to the rest of the Greater Brisbane Area, and sales rates remain low.
Our analysis of price trends across the Brisbane metropolitan area shows that most suburbs have recorded house price growth in the last 12 months, but an even higher percentage have had growth in the most recent quarter.
This again shows that the city has done well through the pandemic period.
Our analysis shows that 62% of suburbs have recorded annual growth in their median house prices, but 73% have had uplift in the latest quarter.
It’s clear that the top end of the Brisbane market is doing best in this climate, driven partly by the reality that highly-ranked, well-located suburbs in this city often have median house prices in the $800,000s and $900,000s. For people leaving Sydney and Melbourne to relocate to South-East Queensland as part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, this looks attractive.
Suburbs to record annual median house price growth above 20% include Highgate Hill (28%), Fig Tree Pocket (25%), Nundah (20%) and Windsor (21%).
The inner-city house markets (in contrast to the apartment markets) are doing well, with good annual price growth in Bardon (10%) and Coorparoo (15%), as well as Highgate Hill.
Inner northern suburbs are also performing, including Grange (17%), Windsor and Nundah.
The upper end western suburbs are a standout. In addition to Fig Tree Pocket, there has been strong annual growth in median house prices in Sherwood (12%), St Lucia (14%) and Toowong (13%).
In the south, Yeronga (15%) and Greenslopes (10%) have done well, while in the affordable far north, there has been notable uplift in Woody Point (15%) and Beachmere (10%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane set to be Australia's property market leader: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER

The greatest fiction generated in mainstream media in 2020 is that prices have risen because we have record low interest rates.

In March/April economists and others were lining up to predict a collapse in residential property values because of the pandemic impact. Some forecast price decline as large as 20% to 30%.

Four or five months later, the usual suspects were lining up again to “revise” their forecasts. They were forced to admit they got it wrong and were now predicting much more bullish outcomes for dwelling values. Some of the bank economists are now expecting boom-level price growth in 2021.

Asked to explain why prices have held up so well, the standard answer is “record low interest rates” - a response that shows how little they know about house markets. We entered the pandemic period with record low interest rates and very little has changed.

Those who have recently explained everything real estate with the cheap cost of finance include AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, Domain analyst Nicola Powell, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, ABC business editor Ian Verrender, NAB chief economist Alan Oster and economists speaking on behalf of ANZ, Westpac and the CBA.

The “record low interest rates” rationale is the go-to response for pontificators who have limited knowledge of residential property dynamics.

When Sydney and Melbourne were having their price booms from 2013 to 2017, the standard explanation from economists was “record low interest rates”. They were unable to explain why prices were falling at the same time in Perth and Darwin, and stagnating in other capital cities like Brisbane and Adelaide.

Record low interest rates were still very much in place when the two biggest cities experienced their post-boom correction, with prices falling in 2018 and the first half of 2019.

When markets generally picked up in the second half of 2019, economists again rolled out their interest-rates arguments, ignoring the impact of the multiple other events that jointly had a huge impact, including the Federal Election result, the relaxation of lending rules by APRA and the announcement of tax cuts.

So now we have most markets rising, regardless of the pandemic-induced short recession, and record-low interest rates are again the standard answer. But little had changed with mortgage rates - the RBA has shaved a miniscule 0.15 of a percentage point off the official cash rate, but this hasn’t had any noticeable impact on the mortgage rates that typical home owners and investors are paying.

And it beggars belief that Australian consumers have only recently noticed that finance is cheap. It’s been the case for years.

I would also point out that the last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising.

History shows we’re more likely to have a genuine national boom in periods when rates are high, because it means the economy is booming, consumers are spending and the people who pull the levers are trying to dampen things down (and usually not succeeding) by lifting the official interest rate.

In the late 1980s and during the 2001-02-03 boom, they kept putting up interest rates and the property booms raged on.

Right now interest rates are low because the economy is struggling - a time when people are less likely to be bullish and spending big on real estate.

So, given that interest rates are clearly not an acceptable explanation, why have property markets held up so well in 2020?

As with all things in real estate, there are many different factors working in unison.

The national economy was been stronger than predicted. The recession was muted and lasted only one quarter. Unemployment did not go into double digits as economists predicted. More importantly, many local economies have been strong through the pandemic period.

With the exception of Melbourne, most of the nation got the virus under control early and it’s been busy as usual, apart from the closure of state borders.

Many Australians have sought the safety and solidity of bricks and mortar. Various surveys have shown that consumers have rated residential real estate highly as an asset class in 2020 – and it has not disappointed them.

Government stimulus measures and support from lenders has made a big difference. Support was not switched off at the end of September (economists got that prediction wrong as well) and continues to have an impact.

First-home buyers have been highly active, boosted by record levels of government aid.

Vacancy rates are ultra-low in most locations, putting upward pressure on rents and prices.

The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, the most powerful trend estate rend this century, is driving strong demand in regional markets and the smaller capital cities.

Expats returning home to the relative safety of Australia have more than compensated for the absence of overseas migrants coming into the country.

The combination of all those factors have allowed housing markets to resist the negative forces of the pandemic and to not only survive but thrive in 2020.

It’s put residential real estate in a strong position heading into the New Year.

Stand by for the infrastructure-led property boom in 2021.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The last two times Australia had genuine nationwide property booms - in the late 1980s and in the early year of this century - on both occasions mortgage rates were high and rising



terryryder

Record low interest rates not the reason the housing market didn't collapse: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Regional NSW is showing nation-leading strength, with a record number of towns and suburbs recording growth in their sales activity in our new quarterly survey.

A total of 116 locations have rising markets, easily the highest number in the six years that Hotspotting has been conducting its quarterly surveys. The previous best were 70 growth locations in a mid-2018 survey and 77 late in 2019.

The results show evidence of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend which is sweeping the nation, with growth markets right across the state but most noticeably in locations close to Sydney.

The No.1 market, by a considerable margin, is the Central Coast. As the closest sea change market to Sydney, this market is getting significant uplift from the Exodus trend. There are 17 suburbs with rising sales activity and we expect strong price growth in the near future.

South of Sydney, the Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGA jointly have 10 suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.

Hill change markets within striking distance of Sydney are also rising, including the Blue Mountains (where four locations have rising sales activity) and the Southern Highlands (with five towns in the Wingecarribee LGA having upward sales momentum – refer below for data on price growth).

The Queanbeyan-Palerang LGA just outside Canberra is also thriving – it has five locations with rising sales activity. Nearby Goulburn is also a growth market.

The data for Newcastle is somewhat muted – it has only five growth suburbs, which is a small number for a city of its size in the current circumstances.

But neighbouring municipalities are doing better: Lake Macquarie has six growth suburbs, while Hunter Valley LGAs like Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook jointly have seven growth locations – with the Maitland LGA the standout.

The growth momentum has now spread further afield, with strength evident in markets like Orange, Bathurst, Dubbo, Armidale, Tamworth, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Albury and Wagga Wagga.

The strategic regional cities of Tamworth and Wagga Wagga both have five suburbs with rising sales activity.

In the Eurobodalla LGA on the state’s south coast, there is growth impetus in Malua Bay, Moruya and Tuross Head.

In terms of price performance, Regional NSW has done well in the past 12 months but in particular in the latest quarter.

Two-thirds of locations across Regional NSW have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, but eight out ten have recorded uplift in the most recent quarter.

This indicates that the regional areas of the state have had an uplift in price performance recently, with the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle a major influence.

The outcomes in annual terms include 67% of locations with apartment markets recording increases in their median unit prices and 65% of locations also having increases in median house prices.

Multiple locations have delivered double-digit increases in their median house prices over the past 12 months.

The Southern Highlands region south of Sydney is a standout. Median prices are up strongly in Bowral (23%), Burradoo (13%) and Mittagong (10%), boosted by the trend of people relocating from the big cities to lifestyle locations.

Parts of the Wollongong market are showing signs of benefiting from the trend, with Bulli up 13% and Thirroul up 18%. The Central Coast is a natural beneficiary also and several suburbs have delivered strong rises, including Umina Beach (10%) and Wyong (15%).

Ballina is also doing well, with annual median price increases in the suburbs of Ballina (15%), East Ballina (10%) and West Ballina (12%). Further north, locations in Tweed Shire are rising, including Kingscliff (12%) and Murwillumbah (10%).

In the far south of the state, the Wagga Wagga region continues to be a strongly-performing market, with median house prices rising in Lake Albert (11%), Mt Austin (11%) and Wagga Wagga (14%).

Growth markets are sprinkled throughout the regional areas of the state and across different price ranges. They include Caves Beach (up 11% to $870,000), Corowa (up 11% to $265,000), Inverell (up 11% to $290,000), Kyogle (up 12% to $300,000), Maitland (up 15% to $460,000), Malua Bay (up 24% to $640,000), South Grafton (up 12% to $280,000), Windradyne (up 11% to $460,000), Yass (up 18% to $500,000) and Young (up 11% to $310,000).

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 
ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting 
 
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Regional NSW property market showing nation-leading strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional Victoria continues to be a national leader of price performance. No other market jurisdiction in Australia has such a high percentage of locations delivering price growth.
In the past 12 months, 92% of towns and suburbs across Regional Victoria have had growth in their median house prices. Most have increased by more than 5% and many have had double-digit growth.
It’s all part of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, a trend which (contrary to many media reports) did not arise out of the pandemic – it was well under way before 2020 and has been turbo-charged by the lockdown periods.
It’s a trend that first became evident with the rise of markets close to Melbourne three or so years ago, and continues to be a major force in Regional Victoria.
The standouts are Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong, but there are growth markets spread right across the state – from Portland, Warrnambool and Mildura in the west and north-west, to Wodonga in the north and the towns of East Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley in the east.
Most of the suburbs of Ballarat (pictured top), have had double-digit annual growth in their median house prices, including Redan (15%), Alfredton (11%), Ballarat Central (13%), Brown Hill (10%), Canadian (12%), Sebastopol (15%) and Mt Clear (10%).
Bendigo is a little further back in the cycle than Ballarat, but is now delivering growth at comparable levels, led by Strathdale (17%), California Gully (15%) and Eaglehawk (13%).
White Hills, Strathfieldsaye and East Bendigo have all grown 10-11%, while numerous other suburbs have had 8-9% increases over 12 months, including Flora Hill, Kangaroo Flat, North Bendigo, Long Gully and Epsom.
The City of Greater Geelong was the first the regional cities to get on the growth path and has now had 3-4 years of rising prices. But many suburbs are still delivering good uplift in their median prices, led by Drysdale (10%), East Geelong (13%) and Newtown (10%).
Elsewhere, the Strathbogie LGA is a standout, with both Euroa (up 17%) and Nagambie (up 20%) showing exceptional growth.
In the far west of the state, Portland continues to rise, with its median house price up 15%. Warrnambool is another western centre with good growth, up 10% over 12 months.
In other parts of the state, Myrtleford (13%), West Wodonga (10%), Swan Hill (10%), Maddingley (11%), and Beechworth (10%) have all done well.
Overall, Regional Victoria is one of many market jurisdictions which rubbish the general line in mainstream media that house prices in Australia are now recovering after a Covid downturn. In most locations across Australia, notably including Regional Victoria, there never was a downturn.
What we’ve seen, and continue to see, is something approaching a boom.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a> twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Regional Victoria leads Australia in property price performance: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Federal and state political leaders intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery in Australia. And this will turbocharge a residential property boom which is already building across the nation. 
<div>Infrastructure spending is always a key driver of growth in residential property markets and government plans to fast-track shovel-ready projects will enhance the established trend of rising markets in many parts of Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That’s why we created a new report titled “Australia’s Infrastructure-led Property Boom: National Top 10 Hotspots”.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The research conducted daily by the Hotspotting team places considerable emphasis on infrastructure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The best places to invest have impact from infrastructure in two key ways: excellent existing infrastructure (public transport, schools, medical services, retail outlets, etc) and spending on new infrastructure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New infrastructure is particularly influential on generating growth in residential property markets. Our belief is that no other factor impacts property markets as strongly as major new infrastructure spending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Infrastructure such as new motorways, rail links, hospitals and universities improve the amenity and desirability of the locations directly impacted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These projects generate major economic activity and employment – and from that flows demand for real estate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From 2013 to 2017 both Sydney and Melbourne had significant real estate booms, but this was not replicated in other parts of Australia. During that period, the markets in Perth and Darwin were in reverse, and those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were largely stagnating.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The fundamental difference was the infrastructure spend. Both Sydney and Melbourne were spending tens of billions of dollars on new infrastructure. As a consequence, the economies of the two biggest cities were strong, as a time when the other cities were weak or in decline.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We have seen major infrastructure spending transform local economies and their property markets in many significant regional cities across Australia. Projects totalling more than $20 billion have transformed the Sunshine Coast from a tourist town to an international city and it currently has one of the strongest property markets anywhere in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Newcastle, Geelong and Wollongong are all regional cities which have transitioned by older-style economies based on manufacturing to prosperous modern economies through spending on new infrastructure and the generation of new employment sectors. Growth property markets have emerged from the transition in these places.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The recent Federal Budget provided evidence that the Australian Government intends the past-pandemic economic recovery to be largely inspired by spending on major projects across the nation. It’s also clear that State Governments are ramping up their spending on roads, rail links and other projects to generate jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the new National Top 10 report we highlight ten locations which are poised for growth as a result of big spending on new infrastructure. They include some locations which might now normally blip on the radar screens of property investors, like Toowoomba in Queensland.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More potential hotspots will emerge as governments firm up their plans and announce start dates for major developments.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="http://hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>  <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
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<a href="http://twitter.com/hotspotting">twitter.com/hotspotting</a>
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Infrastructure boom setting up a property boom: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australian is on the cusp of a national real estate boom. And I do emphasise “national”.
We haven’t had a genuine national real estate boom in Australia since the one from 2001 to 2004, when all the major markets experienced strong price rises.
The one that drove Sydney and Melbourne prices higher from 2013 to 2017 was not a nationwide phenomena, as few other locations around the nation shared that price uplift.
But right now forces are building which will generate growth in most major cities and towns across the nation. They will be boosted by new events which will energise economies, including infrastructure spending and increased activity in the resources sector.
We currently have a remarkably strong situation with markets across Australia – everywhere, in fact, except the two biggest cities, which are so often the exception rather than the rule.
The new price data from CoreLogic suggests that all capital cities except Sydney and Melbourne had price growth in September, while most regional market jurisdictions also recorded growth. The September figures continued the stubborn performance of markets since February when the pandemic first started to impact Australia.
Many of our capital cities have recorded some level of house price growth in most months since February. Canberra has had growth in each of the past seven months and Adelaide has had uplift in six of the seven months.
Regional markets around Australia are pumping strongly, with vacancies ultra low, rents rising and buyers outnumbering sellers. People at the coal-face of these markets, including buyers agents, valuers and selling agents, have been reporting very competitive markets for several months – and the data supports those views.
So I would argue that significant sections of the nation already have notable up-cycles under way, particularly those where the virus has been got under control early, local economies are strong, consumer confidence is good, vacancies are low, first-home buyers are active and the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is having an impact.
Some locations have most or all of those factors in play. Those places include Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and regional centres like Ballarat, Bendigo, Albury-Wodonga, Orange, Newcastle, the Sunshine Coast, Mackay, Rockhampton and Townsville.
Of the 15 major market jurisdictions in Australia – eight capital cities and seven state/territory regional markets – 11 have house prices higher than at the start of 2020, led by Regional Tasmania (up 7.1%) and Darwin (up 6.6%), as well as Hobart, Canberra, Regional NSW and Regional South Australia (all up 4-5% since the start of the year).
Twelve of the 15 jurisdictions have house prices higher than a year ago. For apartments, 11 of the 15 locations have prices higher than a year ago.
This means there is a groundswell of positive factors, a rising tide of markets – particularly outside the two biggest cities, which is where two-thirds of Australians live.
Against that background, there are positive forces building which will turbocharge the situation and create a national property boom.
We have seen that local economies and property markets have charged out of lockdown phases with considerable exuberance. We can also get a message from New Zealand, where the economy has continued to emit positive signals and property prices have been rising strongly right across that country.
The more our local economies return to normal, with Melbourne recovering and state border restrictions easing, the more we will see improved confidence and rising market activity.
But the big looming factor is the upcoming infrastructure spend – and, partly as a by-product, considerable uplift in the resources sector.
It is clear that federal and state governments intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery and are willing to go deep into budget deficit to achieve it.
Few things supercharge economies and real estate markets like big infrastructure projects, be they motorways, rail links, hospitals or energy facilities.
Infrastructure developments create economic activity and jobs – and the energises property markets. These projects also improve the amenity of the locations that are directly impacted by the new projects.
A by-product of the infrastructure-inspired recovery will be a new resources boom, with that sector already busy servicing overseas demand.
Another big factor which will drive prices higher is the extraordinary shortage of real estate in most locations in Australia. Vacancy rates of 1% and lower are the norm now and it’s putting upward pressure on rents. Developers have been building less in the past 2-3 years and investors have been largely on the sidelines for the past 18 months in particular. The rental stock the market needs has not been created at the required levels.
At the same time, vendors have been reticent – which means that buyers outnumber sellers in many locations.
Recently we have seen economists from the major banks and other institutions recanting their March-April forecasts of real estate prices dropping 10%, 20% or 30% - and are now suggesting much more moderate outcomes. Westpac is now predicting boom-level price growth starting in mid-2021.
While they and others are becoming increasingly bullish for their predictions, they’re still getting it wrong. Prices may be nudging downwards, generally speaking, in Melbourne and Sydney but they are rising in most other places. And the big uplift will come much sooner than the economists expect.
We’re starting to see media reacting to the change in sentiment, although well behind the game as usual. Here are some of the headlines from the past week:
<ul>
<li>Top End of housing market will lead recovery – The Australian</li>
<li>Housing bears face extinction as forecasts turn bullish – Financial Review</li>
<li>Regional house price rises on the way – Financial Review</li>
<li>House prices bounce in September – ABC News</li>
<li>Houses emerge stronger over September as Sydney and Melbourne declines soften: Property Observer</li>
<li>Are we nearing another property boom? – Smart Property Investor</li>
<li>Victoria set for big summer of sales post-lockdown – Australian Property Investor</li>
<li>Huge sign the property market is heading up again – Yahoo Finance</li>
</ul>
This is significant because mainstream media is reluctant to present positive scenarios about the housing market.
I note also that Simon Pressley of Propertyology – who I think is the best real estate research analyst in Australia - is also predicting a property boom.
He writes in a report published last week: “Make no mistake, property markets in large parts of Australia will be booming by summer! Several locations in different parts of the country have already produced double-digit capital growth over the first 9-months of this calendar year and there are umpteen others with fast growing momentum.
“Anecdotal evidence from research conducted by Propertyology suggests that property markets are already booming in locations such as Noosa, Canberra, Orange, Dubbo, Burnie, Bendigo, Mildura, Mount Gambier, Coffs Harbour and Karratha. That’s ten towns in seven states and territories.
The cast of thousands who, during the March-April national lockdown, were forecasting a real estate Armageddon score an epic ‘Fail’.”
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australia on the cusp of a national real estate boom: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
How long does it take a young couple to save a deposit to buy a first home in the current environment? Less than a year in most of our capital cities and less than 18 months in Sydney. 
But you wouldn’t know it if you’ve tuned into the headlines over the past week, in the wake of another piece of bogus “research” generated by a publicity-seeker. Media treatment of this “report” would have us believe it takes over six years for the typical young couple to save a deposit.
How did we arrive at this disconnect between reality and media perception? Because nobody in the process gives a damn about being helpful to people. The only objective is the headline.
Media loves a story declaring young Australians can’t afford to buy – or that the road to home ownership is impossibly long and arduous.
The reality contradicts the notion that young individuals and couples are priced out of the market, but journalists will never let the facts get in the way of a clickbait headline. And their desire to publish dire scenarios is fuelled by apparently credible research organisations whose motive is to generate publicity.
The headlines in the past week claimed it took first-home buyers over six years to save a deposit to buy a home. I saw reports in major newspapers, on television news bulletins and in online news services. One headline shouted “FHBs bearing heavier deposit burden” and another said “FHBs take six and a half years to afford their first home”. For the source of the report, mission accomplished.
In each case, the figures from a press release were recycled as fact without question or scrutiny. Such is journalism in modern Australia.
The headlines were based on a scenario that has no relationship to the reality for most young Australians. The headlines – and the report that generated them – were based on the notion that typical first-timers need a 20% deposit, that they must buy a house rather than a unit, and that they’re buying in Sydney or Melbourne.
For nine out of 10 young adults wanting to buy their first home, that scenario is not their reality. A more likely situation is a 5% deposit to buy lower-priced home, possibly an apartment, in Brisbane or Perth or Ballarat or Wollongong or the Sunshine Coast – or a block of land to build a new home with the help of the HomeBuilder grant.
The reality is that first-home buyers are having a feeding frenzy in real estate markets across Australia. They comprise the most active cohort in the housing market. This is showing up in the lending figures, in the sales data and in anecdotal evidence from people at the coal-face of markets across the nation.
I would argue there’s never been a better time to be a first-home buyer in Australia, provided you have secure employment. Interest rates have never been lower and the level of government assistance has never been higher. Investors are largely dormant so first-timers are not having to compete with investors as much as before. You can borrow cheap from banks who want your business, you can pocket incentives from federal and state governments, and get into your first home with an ease that has never existed before.
Because of one federal scheme, you need only a 5% deposit. Thanks to another, you can get a $25,000 handout to build a new home. State assistance schemes provide more handouts. You can borrow with an interest rate that starts with a 2. And you’ll pay little or no stamp duty.
Aussie Home Loans data suggests that home loan pre-approvals have grown 71% since the start of the year and over half of all pre-approvals are for the first-home buyers.
Research published earlier this month indicated that, in most locations across Australia, it’s now cheaper to buy than to rent.
And yet media of all kinds have gone ballistic with claims that first-home hopefuls are having to save for over six years before being able to contemplate looking for a home.
It was all based on a typically bogus research report from Domain, a supposedly credible research source. They managed to come up with a negative scenario by doing what research like this always does: focus on how long it takes to save a 20% deposit to buy a house in the nation’s most expensive cities.
The scenario presented was irrelevant to most young people seeking to buy a first home.
How about presenting a realistic and relevant scenario? How long does it take to save a 5% deposit to buy a house in the lower price ranges in Perth – or Brisbane or Hobart? How long does it take to save a small deposit to buy an apartment in Adelaide or in a middle ring suburb of Melbourne? Or a home in Bendigo or Wagga Wagga or Launceston or Mackay. These are the places where most Australians live.
And the answers are …
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">If you’re the typical young couple buying an entry-level unit in Brisbane, it takes just nine months to save a 5% deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">In Perth, it would take only seven months and in Darwin just five months to save the necessary deposit.</li>
<li class="li1">Even in Sydney it takes only one year and four months to save the necessary deposit for an entry-level unit. And 12 months in Melbourne.</li>
<li class="li1">For those who prefer houses, they can save a 5% deposit for an entry level home is in a year or less in Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin. In Brisbane and Canberra, it’s slightly more than a year.</li>
<li class="li1">In Sydney and Melbourne, the typical young couple can get together the required deposit to buy an entry-level house in around 18 months.</li>
</ul>
That information, I should point out, was contained within the Domain First Home Buyer Report. But it was buried in the detail and given no emphasis in the analysis, or the press releases pumped out by Domain, or by media that lapped up the material that was highlighted – i.e. it takes six or more years to save a 20% deposit for a house in our two biggest cities.
Why? Because the headline is the thing. And the truth is optional.
They’re driven by a desire to generate publicity. And media is happy to play along, because journalists care even less about helping their customers. It’s simply not how they think.
Sad but true.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au </a>twitter.com/hotspotting
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First home buyer deposit saving estimates way off: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When media occasionally stops sensationalising negatives in real estate and focuses on positives, they often refer to well-performed locations as “bucking the trend”.
This implies that a market doing well in the current climate is the outlier, the exceptional to the rule.
They’re not. These places ARE the rule. Markets doing well aren’t bucking the trend, they ARE the trend.
Our major newspapers are misleading consumers because their journalists are glass-half-empty people. Some of them are glass-completely-empty people.
In their mindset, a positive outcome doesn’t fit their definition of news. They’re wrong and that’s why newspapers and magazines are failing. Consumers are fed up with non-experts saturating the airwaves with inaccuracies and distortions that misrepresent important issues.
One of the biggest stories in Australian real estate is that shortage of rental properties. Vacancies are ultra low is most markets across the nation. In some places, they’re the lowest ever recorded.
Places where tenants are competing for scarce rentals, offering more than the asking rents in some cases, aren’t bucking the trend. They’re very much on trend.
But many investors are unaware. If they’re readers of certain major newspapers, they’ll believe that the situation with big city CBD areas (which are among the few places where vacancies are high) is the norm across Australia.
Major media keeps declaring that “prices are falling across Australia”. It simply isn’t so. Locations where prices are holding the line or are rising outnumber those where prices are dropping.
But the focus of journalists, and the economists who feed them misinformation, is on Melbourne and Sydney, which drag down national averages and create the impression of weakness in markets everything. It ain’t so.
My observation is that Melbourne and Sydney have been the exception to the rule for most of the past decade. When the two biggest cities were having their property boom (2013 to 2017, generally speaking), media represented this as a national property boom. But it wasn’t happening elsewhere.
When Sydney and Melbourne went into their correction phases (2018 and the first half of 2019) , with prices falling, media presented this to the public as a national property slump. But, again, it wasn’t happening across the nation. There were significant growth markets across the nation, including smaller capital cities and many important regional markets.
The current slump in Melbourne and some parts of Sydney (not nearly as severe as predicted by the chattering economists) does not describe Australia. The two biggest cities are bucking the trend.
The trend is markets with good sales activity led by home buyers including first-home buyers, prices steady or rising, and vacancies very low with upward pressure on rents.
Investors are largely sitting on the sidelines because they’re herd animals, but eventually they’ll get the message – or at least some of them will.
Here are a couple of examples which are typical of scenarios happening around the country.
The regional city of Orange is a good fit with the prevailing trends in real estate, including the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle. It has a strong local economy, well suited to the times. The vacancy rate is 0.4%, prices have risen 5.5% in the past year, including 1.9% in the most recent quarter. Typical houses are in the $400,000s.
Similar sentiments apply to Mudgee in regional NSW – it’s getting buyers out of Sydney looking for a hill change. It has a strong and diverse economy, vacancies close to zero, median price up 7.5% in the past year, including 1.1% in the latest quarter.
The Hume municipality in Melbourne’s north is also tracking well, despite everything that Melbourne has been dealing with. It’s getting plenty of demand from first-home buyers and others moving out to seek an affordable lifestyle.
Vacancies are around 2%, despite the fact that this is a new growth area with high rates of new building. The median price is up 9% in the past year, including 1.2% in the most recent quarter.
Every day, as we go about our work doing research and writing reports for customers, we are coming across location after location with similar scenarios.
There are thousands of local markets that are doing well – sometimes despite the pandemic and in other cases because of the pandemic.
They are the trend, not the exception.
Wake up investors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Markets doing well are not the outlier: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
One definition suggests an economist is someone who can explain to you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn’t come true today.
This very apt description of the behaviour of economists is being seen daily in major media, on a wide range of subjects including residential real estate.
The chattering economists – who collectively comprise the most over-rated and thoroughly unnecessary profession in the world of business – have been very noisy in their attempts to exploit the pandemic for publicity.
But they’re constantly wrong and regularly re-frame their forecasts. It’s common for high-profile economists, like the ones who work for banks and other big institutions, to make a loud forecast about interest rates or GDP or property prices – and journalists will breathlessly report their views. 
Then two months later the same talking heads will announce new forecasts which contradict the ones they made 60 days earlier. They get away with it because journalists appear to believe that credibility is not important – the moniker “economist” is all you need.
But if you were a major company which based an important business decision on a forecast by Bill Evans or Shane Oliver – and then discovered a couple of months later that they had changed their forecast, you would be justifiably annoyed.
So, back in February-March when the pandemic first struck, economists were lining up to forecast that real estate prices would collapse. Predictions ranged from 20% to 30% - and, in some extreme cases, from the usual suspects, 40% in terms of the slump in house prices. 
According to most of them, the collapse was going to be immediate and dramatic, as we had already seen with share-markets.
So in early April, when the price data for March came out and showed prices rising in most cities, the economists and journalists quickly rationalised that away – as in: “Yes, but it’s early days, wait until next month …”
So in early May new price data was published and it again showed no evidence of anything other than enduring strength in real estate markets. The economist/media response was pretty much the same: “Yes, but we’ve haven’t seen the full impact yet, wait until we see the data in June …”
But the June figures showed further sturdiness and the response was the same. And again in July and again in August.
So here we are in September. The CoreLogic figures show that only two of the eight capital cities recorded decreases in house prices during August. In annual terms most cities and most state regional jurisdictions still have house pricing levels significantly higher than a year ago.
So we’ve been immersed in this pandemic shemozzle for six months and there’s been a huge economic and social impact, but still no evidence of real estate buckling under the weight of it all.
And still economists are refusing to admit their palpable incompetence, despite the fact that some of them have revised their forecasts to be less extreme than before.
The new rationalisation is: property prices haven’t fallen because of support measures by the Federal Government and the major banks – and when that’s wound back, prices will collapse.
But they’re wrong again. Once again, economists have failed to understand real estate dynamics or to admit that housing markets don’t fit neatly into their economic theories about how they should behave.
Most of Australia is not dramatically impacted by the pandemic – or certainly not in a negative way. For those important bits of Australia that exists outside of Sydney and Melbourne, which is where two-thirds of us live, there are no lockdowns or crippling restrictions – and people are just getting on with it.
They see market after market – in the smaller capital cities and in most regional areas – where …
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">buyers are active, 
</li>
<li class="li1">there’s not much for sale,</li>
<li class="li1">vacancies are ultra low,</li>
<li class="li1">rents are rising,</li>
<li class="li1">prices are solid or rising.</li>
</ul>
I’m having conversations every day with real estate professionals and consumers around the nation and I have yet to speak to anyone who is struggling. Even Melbourne businesses are finding ways to function amid Daniel Andrews’ spectacular mismanagement and are busy servicing their clients.
Certainly, my business has never been busier or more prosperous.
There a huge disconnect between media rhetoric and the reality for most Australians – the ones who don’t live in the two biggest cities where most of the chattering economists lurk.
FOOTNOTE: Here’s a clue on how to identify a charlatan – someone who pretends to be a real estate expert when they’re not. If they speak of Australian real estate as a single market, they’re a fraud so you can safely disregard them. That eliminates most of the high-profile economists in the land.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Terry Ryder

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