Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy grew above trend in 2018, although it slowed in the second half of the year. The slower pace of growth has continued into 2019. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although downside risks have increased. The trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty. In China, the authorities have taken further steps to ease financing conditions, partly in response to slower growth in the economy. Globally, headline inflation rates have moved lower following the earlier decline in oil prices, although core inflation has picked up in a number of economies. In most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.
Overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative. They have eased recently after tightening around the turn of year. Long-term bond yields have declined, consistent with the subdued outlook for inflation and lower expectations for future policy rates in a number of advanced economies. Also, equity markets have risen, supported by growth in corporate earnings. In Australia, short-term bank funding costs have moderated, although they remain a little higher than a few years ago. The Australian dollar has remained within the narrow range of recent times. While the terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years, they are expected to decline over time.
The Australian labour market remains strong. There has been a significant increase in employment and the unemployment rate is at 5 per cent. A further decline in the unemployment rate to 4¾ per cent is expected over the next couple of years. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. The stronger labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. The improvement in the labour market should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
Other indicators suggest growth in the Australian economy slowed over the second half of 2018. The central scenario is still for the Australian economy to grow by around 3 per cent this year. The growth outlook is being supported by rising business investment, higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and increased employment. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the strength of household consumption in the context of weak growth in household income and falling housing prices in some cities. A pick-up in growth in household income is nonetheless expected to support household spending over the next year.
The adjustment in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices. Conditions remain soft in both markets and rent inflation remains low. Credit conditions for some borrowers have tightened a little further over the past year or so. At the same time, the demand for credit by investors in the housing market has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased further. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
Inflation remains low and stable. Underlying inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual and to take a little longer than earlier expected. The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 2 per cent this year and 2¼ per cent in 2020. Headline inflation is expected to decline in the near term because of lower petrol prices.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
The statement is from <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-05" target="_blank">the RBA</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Soft housing conditions continue: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's March 2019 meeting statement

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One in three experts in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the Royal Commission will result in fewer home loans with the big banks.
Six of 18 respondents said the big four will see their home loan counts decline, with smaller lenders getting a bigger slice.
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the impact could be far-reaching. 
“A third of our experts think that consumers will move away from the big four due to trust issues and stricter lending conditions. 
“As a result, what we can expect to see is more borrowers turning to smaller and online lenders, which typically offer lower rates to lure in new customers. They often also tend to have easy-to-use platforms which can mean faster application and approval, lower fees and more personalised customer service than larger lenders.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
“Some of the poor behaviour detailed in the Royal Commission may actually lead more consumers to think twice about the big guys,” Cooke said. 
Cooke said despite the Royal Commission findings, the home loan market is great for buyers with housing prices easing. 
“With house prices tumbling, and rates at all-time lows, the outlook for housing affordability is strong. 
“It’s a great time for borrowers to consider their options and get a good deal. Remember, these days if you’re rate doesn’t have a 3 in front of it, you could be doing better,” he said. 
Every expert predicted a rate hold in today's RBA cash rate announcement, but now 75% of respondents <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rate-cuts-forecast-by-finder-rba-survey-experts">expect the next move to be a cut</a>. 
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Here’s what Finder's experts had to say: 
Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion: ​"Chances of a cut have grown, but the domestic outlook remains reasonably good employment wise and so far consumer spending remains okay despite sinking property prices on the east coast." 
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Shane Oliver, AMP Capital:​ "Things aren’t yet weak enough to push the RBA to cut but they aren’t strong enough to push it to hike either." 
Alison Booth, ANU:​ "The fundamentals do not warrant any rate changes." John Hewson, ANU:​ "Insufficient evidence yet of a slowing economy." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: ​"Labour market still robust; inflation below target." 
Tim Moore, CUA: ​“On the balance of the economic data in Australia, the RBA have clearly communicated that the risks are balanced therefore the trajectory of the cash rate from here will depend on how both downside and upside risks play out with the key hurdle to a rate cut being employment and inflation. I expect neither cash rate move in the near term." 
Trent Wiltshire, Domain:​ “The RBA has stated the outlook for the cash rate is more balanced, rather than the hiking bias seen throughout 2018. But the RBA is still keen to avoid cutting rates, so will keep the cash rate on hold.” 
Debra Landgrebe, Gateway Bank:​ "This is a watching brief, as GDP growth is slower than expected, unemployment is expected to tick up, despite the January jobs report being stronger than expected. This means that quantitative easing may be required. GDP growth is feeling the effect of property prices falling and low wage growth, which is dampening consumer spending more than expected." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni:​ "Bias is moving toward rate reduction, and while there is a case for this in my view, the RBA is likely to want to hold position for now." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "The RBA has clearly stated it is on hold for the time being." Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association:​ "Insufficient data to conclude that the poor results from end 2018 will be long lived."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"The RBA emphasised that it does not think it will need to move on rates, in either direction, in the short term. I’d agree with this sentiment. While some indicators have softened, importantly the labour market has held up well and while this continues to be the case, the RBA has time to assess the remainder of the economy and wait for the better wages and inflation metrics it desires to emerge." 
Michael Witts, ING: ​"Their recent comments suggest the outlook for rates is finely balanced." 
Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun:​ "The overall direction of interest rates appears to be at a crossroads. For now, I expect rates to stay on hold but recent mixed economic data (in particular the slowing of the housing market) not to mention what's happening internationally (political unrest, trade wars, strains on international relationships) is adding a fair degree of volatility to the economic and financial landscape, which may well last during the course of 2019. For this reason, the RBA may take a conservative approach to rate setting, erring on the side of caution. This caution may manifest itself in a rate drop, meaning, in part, the economy is not as solid as we would like. The next couple of months, leading up to the general election, will be telling."
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Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: ​"There’s somewhat of a stand-off in the housing market at the moment. The level of buyer interest is encouraging but reduced accessibility to finance is having a dampening impact on transactional activity. While this issue runs deeper than merely the cost of finance, a hold pattern remains the prudent course for the RBA in the current climate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: ​"The bank will see no need to move." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "Despite a deterioration in the outlook for the Australian and global economies, recent employment data shows that there are some economic bright spots. This means it remains too early for the RBA to shift rates just yet." 
John Caelli, ME Bank: ​"The Reserve Bank recently moved their interest rate outlook to neutral territory, so it is likely they will hold rates for the near future. With growth and inflation forecasts downgraded, the focus will be on the housing market and unemployment for signs of stress." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: ​"The RBA has acknowledged that our economy is weaker and the likelihood that the next movement in rates is down. However, it is hoping for employment growth to buoy our economy and it is likely to wait a month or two and see how our property markets are faring before acting." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University:​ "RBA held off raising rates with house prices rising for 3 years. It would be staggering if they cut after 12 months of falls, given a generally stable economy." 
Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice:​ "I predict the RBA to hold the rate in March and beyond until it has a better handle on what’s really happening locally with consumers and because there are no major external drivers, such as the Fed, to shift. In February, the Fed left the key interest rate unchanged and said it would be patient in the face of a mounting set of risks, including slowing growth in China and Europe, Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations and the effects of the five-week U.S. government shutdown. Back in Australia, the RBA’s prediction of 3% economic growth this year (and 2.75% growth next year), may be too optimistic, say some economists. Softer growth numbers mean higher unemployment, which would suggest a rate cut down the track. The RBA will be keeping a keen eye on the housing market, especially the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne. With the housing adjustment threatening to spill over into the wider economy, the (negative) wealth effect may increase consumer desire to save and curb consumer spending, which in turn impacts retail and the wider economy. As we have seen this month, there are a lot of moving parts with the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to global economic uncertainties. Looking ahead, we will ideally see credit flow to borrowers to support the housing market, an increase in residential construction, and property investors encouraged to get back into the market." 
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Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: ​"Waiting for December quarter GDP data to be released March 6. If there is another weaker than expected result, the odds will narrow for a pre-Budget, pre Federal Election cut in April or May. Although recent wage data was reasonable (not good, not bad), RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut. This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"RBA still watching the economy, the consumer and wages."
Andrew Reeve-Parker, NW Advice Pty Limited: ​"Sufficient economic activity is balancing housing market concerns."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: ​"Holding is the bank's inclination." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT:​ "There is no way they will raise them and a drop would be premature." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"Although the case is building for the next move to be a cut, I think that on balance, the data coming out is still too mixed. Unemployment is still very low even though we are still not seeing this flow through to consumer sentiment." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: ​"The RBA has recently shifted toward a more neutral stance, and acknowledged that downside risks have increased. It however, is maintaining its central view that the unemployment rate will gradually fall. While the debate has shifted away from the next move being a hike, the RBA doesn't appear to be ready to cut rates either. " 
Clement Allan Tisdell, The University of Queensland: ​"Comments of the Governor of the RBA lead me to believe the cash rate will be held." 
Richard Holden, UNSW: ​"[The RBA is] waiting for new inflation numbers before they make a move." 
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Other participants: ​Bill Evans, Westpac. 
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Can the big banks bounce back? What the experts say on the rate hold

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Over 75 percent of experts who take part in Finder's RBA cash rate survey now believe the next cash rate movement will be a cut.
It was only three months ago that nearly 80% of the panel said the next move would be a hike in rates.  
All 31 experts and economists in Finder’s RBA cash rate survey are expecting a hold at 1.50% on Tuesday.
In the survey, some experts (9/17) forecasted the cash rate would drop to 1.00% before the year is out. 
<img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/6H6ujOQULbreyLK_e1tnJt_-7d1iW_pes0QiNJ4CsYfYK6kzFXHFUA5BwGCTMIJQYhLVOg115s7X0YL2WlvCYa-4C82ARt4mFir70zD9oHqYHjNOVck0-oCHbvGP7beM5mKmXYY1" width="602" height="356"> 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said August and November were the most popular months for a forecasted cut. “Last month, I said the drop to 40% (of economists who believe the next rate move will be upwards) was the most dramatic I had seen in four years of running this survey.
"This month, that drama is elevated with just one in four believing this to be the case. “With the housing market continuing to tumble, and other global and international economic factors looking grim, experts seem to be sure we’re looking at at least one cut in 2019, if not two,” Cooke said.  Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said an easing of of the cash rate is overdue. "Although recent wage data was reasonable – not good, not bad – RBA has conditioned the market to now expect a long-needed cut," Wilson said.
“This cut will attempt to revive consumption, which is now likely to also be impacted by continuing weaker housing markets." Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – has also seen a significant shift.
<img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/L6j8b0wD64XNexZl-5Ct5HiRZWdclM8O8c0DNQgpwpnUiBMOzEt2U7zLECOQ3TEGgs6NhexKJtu3wVfIGz__5CMB6iCW_qT-Qp80u0b5MZh02mkiiUydzTgvIam3522DbJvN6iJL" width="602" height="419">
This month’s tracker set three all-time marks, one positive and two negative. Positive economic sentiment in housing affordability reached its highest level recorded, while positive sentiment for employment and wage growth dropped to their lowest levels. Cooke said the economic sentiment and rate cut predictions signal good news for would-be mortgage holders, but a different story for savers. “Potential first home buyers with a deposit saved are in an overwhelmingly advantageous position in this market. But it doesn’t all start and end with a purchase – any buyer needs to be taking a long-term view with their finances, and be shopping around online for the best possible home loan rate and features. “As for savers, anybody who relies on their savings as a form of income, such as retirees, may soon be making far less interest on their nest egg – so now is the time to take action,” he said. Cooke said savers need a new plan of attack if rates do indeed drop as forecast. “Savers should start to plan for these cuts by looking into term deposits and considering researching different types of investment opportunities,” he said.
 <img class="CToWUd a6T" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/tkQBLRwViCYEamShi9wYWeeSETVwcsy1cSVlQGvEO7h1Stsl_rkAZseVLDcFofUuIOKhlXZzgjZntvCBga47FxCcg9g9DZaFtYUfKXR60EThTIBZeTllLkOxygh9iL7goLoXyZ33" width="602" height="392"> 
 
 
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Rate cuts forecast by Finder RBA survey experts

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It was a great story.
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/meet-guy-debelle-and-philip-lowe-the-odd-couple-wholl-be-running-the-reserve-bank-20160916-grho4t" target="_blank">Philip Lowe</a> had taken over as Reserve Bank governor after 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth. The Australian economy was transitioning nicely away from the country’s biggest-ever mining boom. Interest rates had been cut to historic lows in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and had bottomed out. Inflation and wages growth were about to pick up. Unemployment was falling. And the new governor would preside over a return to “new normal”, with gradual rate rises up to a cash rate of 3.5-4.0%.
Then a funny thing happened on the way to the fairytale ending.
In <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-02-06" target="_blank">a remarkable speech at the National Press Club on Wednesday</a>, Lowe essentially admitted that the bank might well need to take extra remedial action to get the economy moving again.
Gone was the mantra that “the next movement in interest rate will likely be up”. Rather, Lowe said:
<blockquote>
…here are scenarios where the next move in the cash rate is up, and other scenarios where it is down. Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced.
</blockquote>
Translation: “I don’t want to freak you out, but we’re probably going to have to cut rates. And do it sooner rather than later.”
Consider the two main things driving the Reserve Bank’s decision.
Inflation is stubbornly low. <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574" target="_blank">As I pointed out last week</a>, the bank has long had an inflation target of 2-3%, but it keeps undershooting it, and not just missing the centre, but missing the lower bound. In two and a half years with Lowe as governor, inflation has averaged just 1.87% – and has never been inside the target band. The latest figure is 1.8%.
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<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256541/original/file-20190131-42594-1p06f0z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
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Related to that, wages growth is anaemic. For five years it has barely kept up with inflation.
This is broadly true in advanced economies around the world (although our wages are doing worse than those in the United States) and suggests the unemployment rate will need to be pushed down further than in the past in order to reignite wages pressure and hence inflation. That suggests we’ll need even lower interest rates than we’ve got in order to provide what the boffins call monetary stimulus.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
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And the Reserve Bank’s cash rate — the rate that most other rates are set in reference to — is already the lowest on record, at just 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the housing market has taken a big hit, which isn’t over. Nationwide, the market is down 6.1% from its October 2017 peak. In Sydney and Melbourne, the falls are double that.
They are the mainly the result of a credit crunch that flowed from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s decision to wake from its multi-year slumber and tighten lending rules at about the same time the banks responded to the royal commission by impersonating frightened turtles.
Sinking property prices sink spending
Sliding property prices shrink household spending, which makes up roughly 60% of economic activity.
On Tuesday, in the statement it released after its first board meeting for the year, the bank obliquely signalled that it had cut its GDP growth forecasts, mentioning forecasts of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-01" target="_blank">3% this year and less in 2020</a> instead of the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-31" target="_blank">3.5% this year and less in 2020</a> it had mentioned after its December meeting.
Add in the global headwinds from the US-China trade tensions and the fallout from the bungled Brexit, and it’s hard to find much that’s encouraging about the Australian economy in the year ahead.
Lowe didn’t want to state explicitly that he might have to cut rates between now and the election (and if necessary during the campaign itself), but he didn’t need to. He has been as clear as governors get.
Rates could be cut on budget day
A decent bet is the bank will cut 25 points on the first Tuesday in May, after the release of the updated (and possibly weak) inflation data on April 24.
Another possible date is the first Tuesday in April, April 2, after the March release of the December quarter economic growth figures, especially if economic growth turns negative. Coincidentally, April 2 is the day the government has set aside for the early budget, so it can hold the election in May.
If it does there will be some who will try to spin it as good news. In 2007 John Howard campaigned under the slogan that rates would be “lower under the Coalition”.
Don’t think it couldn’t happen
His treasurer Peter Costello was under the impression the bank wouldn’t dare move rate during the campaign, unwisely telling broadcaster Jon Faine it would <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/costello-quiet-on-offair-rates-comments-20071107-18kq" target="_blank">keep them put</a>.
“He looked me in the eye. He put his thumb down as he sat there…and he said, ‘There will not be a rate rise in November. Take it from me’,” Faine said.
Having marked out the territory, there is no doubt the bank will use it if needed. To do otherwise would be to invite questions about whether it had favoured one party or the other by holding off.
The hard truth is that we live in a <a href="http://larrysummers.com/category/secular-stagnation/" target="_blank">secular-stagnation world</a>, with too much saving chasing too few profitable investment opportunities.
Rates no longer need to be particularly high
That means that interest rates don’t need to be anything like as high as they once did to attract enough money to fund good ideas. And even if the ideas are good, it is likely they won’t need as much money as they did. Whereas once it took tens of billions of dollars to create a globally significant company (like BHP or US Steel) all it takes now is maybe $2,000 and a laptop, as with Facebook and Google.
A massive mining boom caused by the transition of China to a market economy and then a huge property bubble masked the new reality here for while.
Now it is here for all to see, the Reserve Bank governor included.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-needed-this-man-can-and-will-cut-rates-during-the-election-campaign-111254" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

If needed, this man can and will cut rates during the election campaign: Richard Holden

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The RBA has started the year with a significant shift, lowering its growth outlook and acknowledging greater uncertainties and downside risks.
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The RBA has started the year with a significant shift, lowering its growth outlook and acknowledging greater uncertainties and downside risks. While the Board still expects the economy to track towards its employment and inflation targets, and does not see a strong case for a near term change in the cash rate, there has been a clear change in emphasis.
In particular, the Governor has moved from the view, expressed throughout 2018, that “the next move in the cash rate was more likely to be an increase than a decrease” to one in which the probabilities of the next move being up or down are “more evenly balanced”.
This move to a balanced rate outlook is significant because it clearly establishes that the Bank is prepared to contemplate rate cuts - a position that has really only emerged since the housing markets have reversed. It is also consistent with changes announced by other central banks notably the US Federal Reserve. We see these changes as a welcome shift, bringing the RBA’s thinking more into line with our own.
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board again left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its February meeting. Also as expected, the Bank has lowered its forecasts for growth – outlined in the Governor’s decision statement and detailed more fully in his speech a day later.
The RBA’s growth forecast for 2019 has been revised down from 3¼% to 3%, and its forecast for 2020 revised from 3% to 2.75%, the slowdown year to year reflecting a tapering in resource export volumes. It is significant that growth on average is still expected to be around the ‘trend’ rate of 2¾%.
The RBA has also revised its inflation outlook with the forecast for underlying inflation for 2019 reduced from 2¼% to 2%, while the 2020 forecast remains at 2¼%. The Bank is maintaining the view that inflation will gradually move into the 2-3% band, although it is expected to take somewhat longer than previously expected. There are good reasons why the Bank lowered its growth forecasts.
Firstly, while it still assesses the outlook for global growth as “reasonable”, it recognises that “downside risks have increased” (notably, when asked to rank the risks to the economic outlook, the Governor still nominates ‘global’ issues as a bigger concern).
Secondly, it has made some significant changes around the household sector and housing.
For some time, Westpac has argued that the fall in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne would be associated with a negative wealth effect weighing on consumer spending. In the RBA’s previous writings, it tended to dismiss this prospect.
Although it is still downplayed, the Governor’s latest speech gives more weight to the issue, noting that rising housing prices provided an offset to slow income growth for some households and this effect is now shifting but that an expected pick-up in household disposable income was seen as providing a counterweight to the wealth effects of lower housing prices.
Specifically, consumption growth is expected to hold at 2.75% in line with disposable income growth, implying a stabilisation in the savings rate. This ‘housing-consumer nexus’ is seen as a key area of uncertainty. It remains the key point of difference between Westpac’s 2.6%yr growth forecast for this year and next and the RBA’s at or above trend view.
Westpac has also argued that residential housing construction would be a drag on growth in both 2019 and 2020. The RBA did not support that view, referring to a strong pipeline and only a gradual decline. Recent falls in dwelling approvals, across both high rise and non high rise segments, are now pointing more clearly to a significant drag on growth from the housing construction downturn.
Accordingly the RBA has downgraded its view, the Governor indicating dwelling investment is forecast to decline by about 10% over the next two and a half years.
The RBA continues to see rising business investment and higher levels of public infrastructure spending as the key growth drivers. It also remains positive about the labour market, reaffirming its forecasts for the unemployment rate to fall further to 4¾% by the end of 2020 and an associated lift in wages growth.
The Reserve Bank’s revised view has narrowed the gap with our own but Westpac remains more downbeat. Even so, our weaker forecasts have not been weak enough to warrant forecasting a rate cut. Accordingly, even if the RBA moves further towards Westpac’s current view it seems likely that rates will remain on hold.
The threshold for policy is whether spillovers knock the labour market off course. Our current forecasts do not incorporate that prospect but we acknowledge downside risks. 
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/er20190208BullInterestRates.pdf">'Australian interest rates' (PDF 77kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA shifts to a more balanced view: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Amid uncertainty in the financial markets following the Royal Commission report, it was business as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 1.5 percent for another month.
Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded no further information, just further declines in some key areas.
Below are four charts which highlight the continued declines.
One of the most important aspect is the housing price to housing debt ratio, which has been tracking in the opposite, and negative, direction for months.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart1.jpg" alt="">
The decline in house prices has led to consumer sentiment tracking toward the average, a figure we haven't seen since since late 2017.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart3.jpg" alt="">
The <a href="/news/apartments-drive-dwelling-approval-decline-back-to-2013-levels">recent dwelling approval figures</a>, which showed an 8.4 percent decline in December nationwide, will have been a big factor in the RBA's decision to hold rates.
Its surprise December decline bring the seasonally adjusted annual decline to 22 percent.
The annual decline has been driven by apartment approvals, which have now gone back 38 percent over the 12 months to December 2018.
House approvals have declined 11 percent in that time period.
In trends terms, dwelling approvals have now fallen for 14 straight months, down 39 percent from the November 2017 peak.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/RBA-Chart2.jpg" alt="">
There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.
A household's disposable income hasn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/6/Rba-Chart4.jpg" alt="">
 
 
 
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Growing gaps in key areas a concern for the RBA: RBA chart pack

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The February meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 27 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said the declining house price market will likely put pressure on the RBA in the future, however he predicted a hold at today's meeting.
"The RBA has looked past the housing downturn which has gathered some momentum over the past three months", Lawless said.
"The hold decision was widely anticipated, considering a subtle uplift in CPI and steady labour market conditions, however financial markets are increasingly leaning towards the next move from the RBA being a cut rather than a hike. 
"With CoreLogic’s January hedonic index revealing national dwelling values are falling at the fastest rate since the GFC, while Sydney and Melbourne’s rate of decline is now the most rapid since at least the early 1980’s, there is the potential the RBA may be becoming less comfortable with the performance of the housing sector. 
"Add to this a consistent downtrend in dwelling approvals, weakening consumer sentiment and softer retail trade figures, and it looks like the household sector could start to weigh down economic growth. 
Figures released by the ABS yesterday showed dwelling approvals declined to lows not seen since 2018.
Lawless said the RBA may consider a rate cut due to a number of out of cycle rate hikes.
"The weeks preceding the RBA meeting saw several smaller lenders pushing mortgage rates higher in response to persistently high funding costs, following an average 14 basis point rise in owner occupier mortgage rates since September last year. 
"If we see mortgage rates rising more broadly, we might see the RBA become more willing to consider a rate cut in an effort to offset higher funding costs and support heavily indebted household balance sheets."
 
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RBA holds official cash rate in first meeting of 2019

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Hong Kong based, Societe Generale's chief economist for Asia Pacific, Klaus Baader has joins the growing band of senior economists who foresee a rate cut in Australia in 2019.
He has issued a statement in light of recent economic events that a cash rate cut is more likely than a hike in Australia.
Klaus Baader said since the RBA's previous meeting in December, prospects for the global market have deteriorated markedly, several other central banks have shifted their guidance - some rather radically - "and Australia's economy looks notably less strong than it did then (two months ago)."
"The RBA's latest forecasts will illustrate this.
"Given this backdrop, we have ditched the view that rate normalisation would begin in May of this year."
"Indeed, with the US economy likely so slide into recession in 2020, we believe that the next RBA rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike," he concluded.
Klaus joined Societe Generale in July 2009 and was Chief Euro Area Economist in London before moving to Hong Kong in 2012.
He had been Chief Europe Economist at Merrill Lynch since 2006 after working at Lehman Brothers, UBS and Deutsche Bank.
Klaus began his career at Salomon Brothers in 1989, after studying Economics and Political Science at the University of Cologne and the London School of Economics.
He received his B.Sc. in Economics from the LSE in 1988, and completed a Master course in Economics in 1989.
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Next RBA rate move more likely to be cut than hike: Klaus Baader

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A cash rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seems more likely now than it has in years, according to Finder, Australia’s most visited comparison site.
All 28 experts and economists in Finder’s <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/tJ9mCD1v12hB883nI54aSQ?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/tJ9mCD1v12hB883nI54aSQ?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762488000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGD0AHNNDFlCBL10yngE2qDdo6OcQ">RBA cash rate survey</a> are expecting a hold at 1.50% on Tuesday, but their predictions swung dramatically about the direction of the next move to come. For the past two years, about 80% of experts have predicted a hike as the next cash rate move. This month, only 40% (11/28) did so. Stephen Koukoulas, managing director at Market Economics said he could see a change happen in as little as a month. "[The RBA] will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing.  “It may wait a month or two before acting on that bias," Koukoulas said. Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said of the panelists who put a date on their rate drop, predictions were pretty evenly spread throughout the year from March to November.  “This is the most dramatic shift I have seen in four years of running our cash rate survey.  “Economists are now swinging significantly in favour of a cut this year, but nobody can agree on exactly when this will happen,” Cooke said. <img src="https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/jiQUG11OCkOuDP24-WepAOoFyrIk9BDpJgv2AKWF_icw0Ye8ix0d5ISsYpWprAnHuVcasZ_fHx4aki29ZKq7UToHuGO5TTl9hM5aYykkShFrjcDhrMhuBikrl8cdYTAs-5ILoyi0PMSCulAN5UCcItvUGC6yPd4m1y4=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/5db05eb6-ce37-4c6f-a434-8ecf89c51a59.png" width="600" height="355"> Cooke said that the severity of the housing downturn in recent months was the top reason cited by experts who changed their prediction.  “Along with housing concerns, inflation is still sitting below two per cent, so another cut may be needed to stimulate the economy.  “The only issue with further cuts is that it reduces the ability of the RBA to adapt to softer economic conditions in the future,” Cooke said.  Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker has also seen a significant shift.  Positivity regarding employment in Australia fell from 56% in December to just 29% in February.  Economists indicated that, though unemployment is still low, a weakening of job prospects looms on the horizon.  Koukoulas said the economy is on a slower growth path,  judging by GDP.  “Looking at many economic factors, it looks like growth will be weaker in the next quarter.  “The labour market tends to lag behind the greater economy by a couple of quarters. “This trend – combined with lower job vacancy advertising numbers – indicates a risk that employment will be weaker in the first half of this year versus previous years,” Koukoulas said.        <img src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/5_PXx_mfrsOnYwep55QO0q4W2B8Ghup7SDytJG92y9i9uMgMlr3E06ZaOfSYGdSC_9a_nRaOLIrB4VT0mi6Ll6r5UhoQpSOJp2x40ohsTmrypEMuXbtqr5FYaiKHo121x-Qk4I-tbxjp4VJaGjMImWWZii9dJWoslZs=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/82b136ff-b0b6-4e3b-bfa6-d84b2ff9d648.png" width="550" height="382"> Cooke said the results aren’t all gloom and doom. “With house prices continuing to tumble, the outlook for housing affordability remains strong. “It’s true some lenders are making out-of-cycle rate hikes – we’ve seen 96 i<a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/rzkpCE8w82hWZZpgFp6ssI?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/rzkpCE8w82hWZZpgFp6ssI?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762489000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKpyCRSjUveLfLU96MBZVAB7QunQ">n the </a><a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/lMzUCGv0v2sJzzA0CQwB-C?domain=finder.us9.list-manage.com" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/lMzUCGv0v2sJzzA0CQwB-C?domain%3Dfinder.us9.list-manage.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1549307762489000&amp;usg=AFQjCNExrbXqujboxTfDArQUy2YXJpYoFw">loans we compare on Finder</a> so far this year – but not all banks are raising rates. In fact we’ve also seen 69 lenders cut rates. “The bottom line is if you’re looking to buy now, it’s overwhelmingly a buyer’s market. Use your bargaining power and look for value before you buy,” Cooke said.       <img src="https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/kpJqBzCgbPeX5NZzFJOP3U_BaptvJcaG5I4ZczF0wQ5Lmyd8JHTObAXDUApObu4ZJZxZYeutkcvEDGEe40Zd85JDnCP5d4y-d53RaSZvNy-eU8l0az_BfD1yBrA6H92JEIEoXUdCvR4y5yIfyoODMhkAqYTaWCCqwrs=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/ede2ba44-596b-4d3d-b21e-79a352b72bf9.png" width="550" height="358"> Here’s what our experts had to say: Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "While economic data has generally been soft since the last Board meeting in December, it's unlikely to have been weak enough yet to prompt the RBA to cut rates, particularly given that its bias has still been to raise rates." Alison Booth, ANU: "The fundamentals have not yet altered sufficiently to warrant [the RBA] to change." John Hewson, ANU: "Data uncertainty and concern economy is slowing." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: "Underlying inflation is below the low end of the RBA's target band and underlying economic momentum appears to be deteriorating." Ben Udy, Capital Economics: "The housing downturn is becoming more severe and will weigh on the economy over 2019. But given the labour market remains in good shape for now, we suspect the RBA will remain on hold for the time being." Michael Blythe, CBA: "Reasonable economic backdrop says next move is probably up.  But low inflation means no hurry to act." Trent Wiltshire, Domain: "The RBA is very reluctant to cut rates. Despite some weak economic data since the December meeting the RBA will maintain a fairly optimistic outlook for the economy." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: "Growth is still likely to be above trend." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: "There is little net direction from indicators, with an overall bias to more support being needed given the out of cycle increases of rates by institutions." Tim Nelson, Griffith University: "There is no strong case for an adjustment of monetary policy." Peter Haller, Heritage Bank: "Economic conditions have not materially changed since the previous RBA meeting in December and there is no basis for a change at this time." Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association: "GDP remains solid. Unemployment low and no evidence of inflationary pressure." Michael Witts, ING: "Despite the increased market talk about the prospect of an easier stance from the RBA, if this scenario is to emerge it is likely to be around mid year. Underlying economic data remains positive for the time being." Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun: "No reason to move rates at this stage." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: "Some economists now believe the next official rate movement will be down instead of up. The Reserve Bank will need firm justification as a move either way will be heavily scrutinised. We don’t see any justification to adjust rates at this time." Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics: "It will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing. It may wait a month or two before acting on that bias." John Caelli, ME Bank: "Given low unemployment and wages are starting to rise, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut rates in the near term. Likewise, with house prices continuing to fall, tightening credit, and CPI below the target band, a rise in the cash rate is also unlikely. It’s wait and see for now." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: "The jobs growth figures for December will give the RBA comfort at a time of slower local economic growth and difficult world economic circumstances. With no wages growth and our challenging property markets and the real likelihood of further falls in property values especially in Sydney and Melbourne, the RBA will now have to seriously consider the option of lowering rates this year." Mark Crosby, Monash University: "While the international situation is deteriorating, there is no reason to move rates at the February meeting." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice: "As wages continue to flat line and spending appears to be fuelled by a mix of credit and savings, consumers may be entering 2019 with a slightly pessimistic view. Continued low inflation, that’s sitting below Governor Lowe’s target; and the softening property market coupled with the tightened lending environment, only adds to disappointing Australian GDP/economic and global concerns stemming from Trump’s trade war with China. The upcoming federal election also adds a feeling of stasis to lacklustre economic data. In February, a myriad of signposts continue to suggest rates remaining on hold but down the track the next move in the cash rate could well be downward. However this could impact on the Aussie dollar, giving the RBA a lot of big issues to consider as the New Year kicks off." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: "Although recent data is clearly increasing the chances of a near-term cut in official rates, recent statements by the RBA continue to indicate an ongoing conservative stance on rate settings. This however is likely to change if GDP data to be released on March 6 is again disappointing. In those circumstances the RBA will be motivated to cut rates  - particularly prior to the onset of a likely lengthy federal election campaign." Matthew Peter, QIC: "The market is now pricing the next move of the RBA to be a 0.25% cut sometime in early 2020 as China slows and the housing market continues to correct. These headwinds are yet to derail the economy, as shown by the strong December labour market data. The RBA will stay on hold until 2020, but failing a crash in China and the housing market, the next move in rates will be up." Noel Whittaker, QUT: "There is no way they will increase them with the housing market the way it is – and I can't see them reducing them." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: "Economic data coming out is still too mixed to make a decision to move rates. While CPI remains low, and GDP growth in September was lower than expected, unemployment is now at just 5%. In Sydney, it is at its lowest rate since 1974." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L: "The economy is not as strong as expected.  Also I believe the RBA is waiting for Royal Commission Report to be released." Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "There continues to be strength in the labour market. However, the downside risks for the global economy has increased. The Australian economy is also not growing as strongly as previously thought. The balance of these risks suggests the RBA could tone down its stance of the next move being up but to remain on hold for some time. However, not likely to the extent that the RBA will be ready to lower rates." Richard Holden, UNSW: "No chance they raise given housing and inflation."
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RBA to hold rates in February, but 2019 cut prospect looms

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ING, the fifth-biggest home loan lender in Australia, has lifted variable interest rates for all customers by 0.15 percentage points.
The hike will affect more than 100,000 borrowers from February 7, coming after ING also lifted variable rates on investment home loans by 0.15 percentage points in September and for owner-occupiers in July, by 0.1 percentage points. 
For owner-occupier borrowers paying principal and interest, the advertised rate will rise from 3.78 percent to 3.93 percent.
Those with a $300,000 30-year mortgage, face an increase from $1394 to $1420 a month.
A spokeswoman for the bank said: “We review our rates regularly and occasionally we need to increase them to ensure we can adjust to market changes while continuing to be best placed to provide our customers with simple, effective banking products.”
Sally Tindall, a spokeswoman for financial services broker RateCity, said ING’s rate hike was “disappointing” for customers.
The Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday when it is expected to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent.
 
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Rba Rate Decision

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