Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Yet again, this month’s RBA Board meeting provided no surprises – with the RBA on hold for the 24rd meeting in a row. 
It’s getting hard to come up with anything new to say on this! But that’s as it should be as raising rates just to get rates back to more “normal levels”, or so as to be able to cut them later if needed, would make no sense and would be bad for the economy. A premature hike would be akin to shooting yourself in the foot to be able to practice going to the hospital. (Sorry I know I have used that one before but couldn’t resist using it again!)
And don’t forget that official interest rates in Japan have been around zero for nearly 10 years, they have been around zero for around four years in Europe and they were stuck near zero for seven years from the GFC in the US. So just over two years at 1.5% in Australia is a non-event in terms of global comparisons.
On the one hand, the RBA can point to the continuing global expansion, above trend Australian GDP growth over the last year, an increase in the terms of trade and an improving labour market. But against this uncertainty remains high regarding consumer spending, underemployment remains very high, the drought will have a negative impact, house prices are continuing to fall in Sydney and Melbourne, “credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time” and wages growth and inflation remain very weak. 
Given all these cross currents it remains appropriate for the RBA to leave rates on hold. And there remains nothing in the RBA’s latest post meeting Statement suggesting an imminent change in monetary policy.
Our view remains that the RBA will keep rates on hold out to 2020 at least and the next move in rates could still turn out to be a rate cut given the risks around house prices and consumer spending, albeit this would not occur for at least another six months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Nothing to suggest imminent change in rates: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate at 1.50%.
The cash rate has now been on hold since August 2016.
Of course, we were not expecting any change today, but are always interested in the Governor’s Statement.
There were two issues that we thought might change in this Statement, particularly if the Governor had decided to be more upbeat in his commentary.
The first one was whether he would continue to describe the outlook for household consumption as “a continuing source of uncertainty”. This description was used in the September Statement but was dropped from the Minutes of that meeting. However, the comment has been repeated in today’s Statement. Secondly, we remain perplexed as to why the Bank can be optimistic about a lift in wages growth when it is only forecasting that the unemployment rate will fall from the current 5.3% to 5.0% by mid-2020. It was possible that, particularly following the upbeat employment report for August, the Governor may choose to indicate a lower target for the unemployment rate than the 5.0% that has been used in recent Statements. This was not the case and the 5.0% forecast has been retained. Of course, it remains a possibility that this forecast will be lowered in November with the release of the next Statement on Monetary Policy.
In terms of the actual changes in the Statement, we find two areas of interest.
Firstly, the inflation forecast for 2018 has been qualified. In September, a specific 1 ¾ per cent was nominated, whereas in today’s Statement, it is described as “one-off declines in some administered prices in the September quarter are expected to result in inflation in 2018 being a little lower than otherwise”. That probably refers to the recent lift in petrol prices which will affect the December quarter, adding upside risk to the forecast for headline inflation. No doubt, higher oil prices have been considered given the commentary around global inflation.
The second area where we have seen change has been around interest rates and credit. In September, following the out-of-cycle rate rise by one major bank, the Statement noted that the average mortgage rate paid is lower than a year ago. That strong comment is no longer used and it is merely pointed out that while lenders have increased their standard variable mortgage rates by small amounts, they have been reducing mortgage rates for some new loans.
Commentary around credit growth has changed. Whereas in September, housing credit growth was noted as declining, in this Statement, the Governor prefers to point out that “growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers remains robust”. Whilst at an annual rate of 7.4%, this is certainly true, the profile is slowing when we consider that the value of new lending to owner-occupiers (ex re-financing) is now down 5% for the year. Certainly, the new lending statistics support the second point “demand by investors has slowed noticeably”, with our estimate of the value of new lending to investors being a 27% fall (ex re-financing) for the year.
Secondly, in September, the Governor referred to “lending standards are also tighter than they were a few years ago”. This has been replaced with “credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time”. Arguably, that is a stronger assessment of current credit conditions.
Conclusion
The final paragraph in the Governor’s Statement is identical to the Statement in September, emphasising that progress in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target is likely to be gradual.
While markets appear to be pricing in around a 40% probability of a rate hike by end 2019, we remain comfortable with our forecast that rates will remain on hold through 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

No surprises in RBA Governor statement: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector. Globally, inflation remains low, although it has increased due to both higher oil prices and some lift in wages growth. A further pick-up in inflation is expected given the tight labour markets, and in the United States, the sizeable fiscal stimulus. One ongoing uncertainty regarding the global outlook stems from the direction of international trade policy in the United States.
Financial conditions in the advanced economies remain expansionary, although they are gradually becoming less so in some countries. Yields on government bonds have moved a little higher, but credit spreads generally remain low. There has been a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar this year. In Australia, money-market interest rates are higher than they were at the start of the year, although they have declined since the end of June. In response, some lenders have increased their standard variable mortgage rates by small amounts, while at the same time reducing mortgage rates for some new loans.
The latest national accounts confirmed that the Australian economy grew strongly over the past year, with GDP increasing by 3.4 per cent. The Bank's central forecast remains for growth to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low and debt levels are high. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector.
Australia's terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years due to rises in some commodity prices. While the terms of trade are expected to decline over time, they are likely to stay at a relatively high level. The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis, but it has depreciated against the US dollar along with most other currencies.
The outlook for the labour market remains positive. The unemployment rate is trending lower and, at 5.3 per cent, is the lowest in almost six years. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. A further gradual decline in the unemployment rate is expected over the next couple of years to around 5 per cent. Wages growth remains low, although it has picked up a little. The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is likely to be a gradual process.
Inflation is around 2 per cent. The central forecast is for inflation to be higher in 2019 and 2020 than it is currently. In the interim, once-off declines in some administered prices in the September quarter are expected to result in inflation in 2018 being a little lower than otherwise.
Conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers remains robust, but demand by investors has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time, although mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries">
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-24" target="_blank">Source RBA</a> </div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Property markets easing: RBA Governor's October 2018 meeting statement

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The October meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 26 consecutive months.
The August rate hold marked the two year anniversary of the last change to the cash rate by the RBA. 
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said despite falling house prices, he doesn't expect a cash rate cut.
“Amidst falling housing prices, low inflation and rising mortgage rates, the decision from the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold was widely expected; in fact financial markets aren’t expecting any move in the cash rate throughout 2019 and into 2020, Lawless said.
"Despite the housing downturn gathering some pace in September, with CoreLogic’s national index recording the largest fall in dwelling values over any three month period since late 2011, we don’t expect the RBA to throw a lifeline to the housing market in the form of lower interest rates.  
“Considering dwelling values comprise around 55% of household wealth and about 70% of household debt, the RBA has a keen interest in the housing markets performance. 
"Cutting the cash rate would likely provide further support to economic conditions, but could also risk refuelling growth in housing prices, as was the case in 2016 when the cash rate was cut by 50 basis points between May and August.  Despite the recent subtle rise in mortgage rates, indebted home owners continue to benefit from the lowest mortgage rates since the 1960’s. 
"Although we expect housing values to drift lower, such low mortgage rates, together with population growth and relatively strong economic conditions should help to keep a floor under housing prices.
 
 
 
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RBA hold for 26th consecutive month

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A quarter of brokers in the RBA survey conducted by online home loan marketplace HashChing have seen clients trying to refinance to banks which aren't raising their rates.
Siobhan Hayden, COO of online home loan marketplace HashChing, said it's no surprise.
“As expected, the Royal Commission into banking and recent variable rate hikes has severely battered consumer confidence and trust," she said.
"Borrowers are — and rightfully so— more skeptical of the big banks than ever, so it is no surprise that over a quarter of the brokers surveyed have already noticed clients trying to refinance with lenders who have not raised their rates." 
Almost a third of brokers surveyed have noticed an increase in lenders refinancing away from CBA, Westpac and ANZ and other lenders who have recently increase their variable rates.
“Despite the recent concerns around the cooling housing market, rising cost of living, stagnant wage growth, and interest rate hikes; over 60 per cent of brokers identified that the most common motivator for clients seeking to refinance was simply because they were financially savvy and wanted to shop around for the best deal," Hayden said.
"That’s compared to just 15 per cent that believe the main driver to refinance is the rising cost of living and 9 per cent that think it is rate increases. 
HashChing's RBA October survey found that almost 10 percent more brokers indicated that they expected an interest rate rise by Christmas.
Over 90 percent of brokers surveyed expect the cash rate to remain on hold in October. 
Nearly two thirds have noticed an increase in enquiries for fixed interest rate home loan products following the recent hike in variable rates.  
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Borrowers refinancing with lenders who aren't raising rates: HashChing survey

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<div>
<div>
The Reserve Bank of Australia could cut the official cash rate if banks raised their mortgage rates several times, economist Chris Caton has suggested.
So far this month, Westpac Banking Corporation, ANZ Banking Group and Commonwealth Bank of Australia have raised their mortgage rates by 0.14 to 0.16 percentage points citing increases on offshore funding costs.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has held the official overnight cash rate at 1.5 per cent for 25 months.
Dr Caton, a retired former chief economist with BT Financial group, told the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees conference in Cairns could cut the cash rate.
"Of course if the banks raised their variable rates again and again and the Reserve Bank was unhappy with that it would offset that – it would.
"There's no question about that.
</div>
<div>
"But at the moment I think they're thinking, 'we're low enough, we've been low enough for long enough, we really don't want to cut any further, there is no case to raise, unemployment's coming down, growth's OK, let's keep it where it is."
Dr Caton said he didn't expect a housing crash," Fairfax Media reported.
Dr Caton said there are no bargains out there for investors in either housing or stocks "in part because interest rates have been as low as they have for as long as they have. But I don't see any risk of any crashes either". 
</div>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA could cut official cash rate: Chris Caton

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The September RBA Board meeting provided no surprises – with the RBA on hold for the 23rdmeeting in a row.
The RBA’s Statement accompanying the decision saw no major changes. The RBA still sees growth picking up to a bit above 3% and is upbeat on business conditions, non-mining investment and public infrastructure investment but is uncertain about consumer spending and the drought and global trade given US tariffs.
While the RBA appears to be a bit more upbeat on wages growth having “picked up a little recently”, its hard to get too excited about this given the pick up since 2016 largely reflects a faster increase in the minimum wage rather than underlying supply and demand conditions and in any case wages growth was just 2.1% over the year to the June quarter. Its also worth noting that the pick up in reported wages growth since the time of the last RBA Board meeting only occurred because March quarter wages growth was revised down from 2.1% to 2%.
Surprisingly the RBA is still relaxed about higher mortgage rates, on the back of higher money market rates, and falling home prices. However, despite its public comments it would have to be feeling a little bit nervous about the slide in Sydney and Melbourne home prices given the build-up in household debt in recent years and it would be aware that when house prices and auction clearances have been this weak in the past it has actually taken lower interest rates to stabilise the housing market.
Overall, there is still nothing in the RBA’s latest Statement to suggest an imminent change in monetary policy.
The RBA’s forecasts for solid growth and a gradual rise in underlying inflation argue against a rate cut but the peak in the housing construction cycle, uncertainty about the outlook for consumer spending, the continuing weakening in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, the drought, low inflation and wages growth and tight bank lending standards all argue against a rate hike.
So the stand-off continues and the RBA will remain on hold for a while to come. The next move is probably still up but not until second half 2020 at the earliest and there is a rising risk that the next move will actually be down.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA likely to remain on hold for a long while: Shane Oliver

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The September meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 25 consecutive months.
The August rate hold marked the two year anniversary of the last change to the cash rate by the RBA. 
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said prospects of a higher cash rate have been pushed back further.
"There are plenty of factors keeping interest rates on hold, but top of mind is the fact that mortgage rates are already edging higher as lenders look to balance their profit margins against higher funding costs and a smaller deposit base," Lawless said.
"With the first of the Big Four banks announcing an out of cycle rate hike, the prospects for a higher cash rate have likely been pushed back even further; we could even see debate for a lower cash rate becoming more prominent." 
Lawless suggested financial markets are betting the cash rate will stay on hold until at least January 2020.
"Plenty of slack remains in the labour market, housing prices are trending lower, household debt levels are at a record high, core inflation is tracking below the RBA’s target range of 2-3% and retail trade is slow," Lawless noted.
"Despite the outlook for a stable cash rate, but slightly higher mortgage rates, we can expect lenders to remain hyper competitive, particularly for high quality borrowers – those with large deposits, lower debt to income ratios and a strong credit history. 
"Even with mortgage rates starting to edge higher, from a historical perspective, rates remain extremely low which will continue to support housing demand. 
"No doubt borrowers will be applying pressure on their lenders to ensure they are on the lowest rate possible."
The monthly RBA survey of 30 experts and economists conducted by Finder.com.au found nearly 90 percent of respondents felt the next rate change will be a hike.
The majority believe the hike will come in the second quarter of 2019.
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HashChing surveyed a cross-section of its broker network ahead of the RBA interest rates and 80 percent believe rates will remain unchanged into 2019.
There were 41 percent of brokers who felt that more than a quarter of home loan borrowers who secured a loan last year would not be successful if they applied for the same mortgage today.
Most brokers said that at least half of all of their refinance clients paid too much interest on their original home loan because they did not shop around.
HashChing COO Siobhan Hayden said banks are scrutinising everything.
“The reality is, it has become a lot harder to secure a new home loan or refinance an existing one," Hayden said.
"Banks are scrutinising everything, whether it’s how much borrowers are spending on tolls, Netflix, or ASOS.
"Those wanting to get ahead and buy a home or refinance need to be proactive and seek financial advice from a verified expert that understands the recent changes to lending.”
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“Brokers are reporting that a sizable portion of borrowers who secured their home loan as little as a year ago would be unable to access the same mortgage deal today.
"This is because lenders are tightening their credit policies and shining an unprecedentedly harsh spotlight on applicants’ living expenses.
“Reviewing a loan applicant’s living expenses is a rational metric to assess suitability for the loan, and doing so should provide more protections for both banks and borrowers.
"However, combing through living expenses is having an adverse effect on existing homeowners who would not qualify for their current mortgage today. This leaves them unable to refinance and stuck with their existing rate.
“It will be interesting to see whether the enhanced rigour and scrutiny of living expenses delivers better outcomes for consumers, or if it will just help the banks maintain high interest loans.
 
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25 months... RBA holds at 1.5 percent at September 2018 meeting

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
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The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector. Globally, inflation remains low, although it has increased in some economies and further increases are expected given the tight labour markets. One ongoing uncertainty regarding the global outlook stems from the direction of international trade policy in the United States.
Financial conditions remain expansionary, although they are gradually becoming less so in some countries. There has been a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar this year. In Australia, money-market interest rates are higher than they were at the start of the year, although they have declined somewhat since the end of June. These higher money-market rates have not fed through into higher interest rates on retail deposits. Some lenders have increased mortgage rates by small amounts, although the average mortgage rate paid is lower than a year ago.
The Bank's central forecast is for growth of the Australian economy to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019. In the first half of 2018, the economy is estimated to have grown at an above-trend rate. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector.
Australia's terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years due to rises in some commodity prices. While the terms of trade are expected to decline over time, they are likely to stay at a relatively high level. The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis, but it has depreciated against the US dollar along with most other currencies.
The outlook for the labour market remains positive. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3 per cent, the lowest level in almost six years. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. A further gradual decline in the unemployment rate is expected over the next couple of years to around 5 per cent. Wages growth remains low, although it has picked up a little recently. The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is likely to be a gradual process.
Inflation is around 2 per cent. The central forecast is for inflation to be higher in 2019 and 2020 than it is currently. In the interim, once-off declines in some administered prices in the September quarter are expected to result in headline inflation in 2018 being a little lower, at 1¾ per cent.
Conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low. Housing credit growth has declined to an annual rate of 5½ per cent. This is largely due to reduced demand by investors as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Lending standards are also tighter than they were a few years ago, partly reflecting APRA's earlier supervisory measures to help contain the build-up of risk in household balance sheets. There is competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
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<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-21" target="_blank">The RBA statement</a> was issued following today's meeting. </div>
 
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Prices easing, rent inflation low, housing credit growth in decline : RBA Governor's September 2018 meeting statement

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A panelist of experts in Finder's RBA survey are divided about honeymoon rates for home loan borrowers. 
Nearly 90 percent of experts in the Finder survey expect the next cash rate move to be in an upward direction. All 30 members of the RBA survey predicted a September rate hold.
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke said the cash rate is likely to remain at 1.5 percent for the remainder of the year, and part of 2019.
“It’s widely believed the cash rate will remain stagnant for some time now, but this hasn’t stopped lenders from lifting rates independently of the Reserve Bank, which we witnessed late last week.
“Westpac and Suncorp were among the first banks to increase home loan rates in response to offshore funding pressures, and many are keeping an eagle eye on the market for further announcements to come,” he said. 
Nearly 40 percent of survey respondents expect a rate rise in the second quarter of 2019, while 25 percent think rates will rise in the fourth quarter of 2019.
There were 20 percent that think rates will hold until 2020.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: ​"The RBA will hold interest rates at 1.50% at their next meeting, continuing a run of stability that now dates back over 2 years. Consumer confidence has been hit by the recent political chaos in Canberra, and job growth in the economy will likely slow down in the lead up to the next election, but the RBA is still reticent to cut, despite numerous headwinds the economy is facing." 
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy: ​"RBA has stated that it continues to expect inflation to be around 21⁄4 per cent over the next couple of years as above-trend GDP growth reduces spare capacity in the labour market and there is an associated pick-up in wages growth." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: ​"While economic growth picked up a notch in the first half of the year its premature to start raising rates as uncertainty remains around the outlook for consumer spending, the housing cycle both in terms of construction and home prices has now turned down, and wages growth and inflation remain low. So remaining on hold makes sense and this is likely to remain the case for some time to come." 
Alison Booth, ANU: ​"Fundamentals have not changed sufficiently to warrant changing the cash rate." 
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics: ​"inflation and wages growth is low." 
Paul Dales, Capital Economics:​ "The RBA is patiently waiting to see if the unemployment rate falls as it is hoping and inflation rises back to the 2-3% target rate. I suspect it will be waiting for a long time yet." 
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: ​"The RBA has made it clear that although it thinks the next move in interest rates will most likely be up, it is in no hurry to act on that inclination. And nothing has happened since the last meeting to have prompted them to change that view." 
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: ​"The economic fundamentals remain largely unchanged." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni:​ "No reason to move with inherent weakness in the economy 
exacerbated by political and regulatory uncertainty both domestically and internationally." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank: ​"There is no reason for the RBA to change rates at the present time." 
Paul Bloxham , HSBC Bank Australia Limited​: "Inflation is still below the target band." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"The RBA finds itself between a rock and a hard place, the economy does not as yet justify higher policy rates, but equally it can not foster any better conditions that might see inflation accelerate more quickly because of the financial stability constraints it has, rightly in my view, it has also chosen to focus on." 
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Michael Witts, ING Bank: ​"Despite the increase in mortgage rates from one of the majors, this is unlikely to alter the RBA stance." 
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons:​ "There’s no compelling reason for the RBA to adjust the official cash rate at this time. Of greater interest is the approach the banks are taking with their lending terms. Some are cutting fixed rates in an attempt to build market share. Honeymoon interest rate deals are in vogue to attract first home buyer attention, but it’s necessary to crunch repayment numbers based on the actual rate you’ll be paying once the honeymoon is over. There’s significant rate movement irrespective of the RBA at the moment." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics:​ "That's what they keep saying they'll do." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "No major changes to economic conditions over the past months will see RBA hold the cash rate steady. In addition banks and lenders continue to change their interest rates independently of the RBA." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: ​"There is no reason to alter interest rates. Our weakening housing markets, low inflation rate and soft wages growth suggest no rise in rates is imminent in the medium term. If anything this would dampen already sluggish consumer confidence which has already taken a hit over the last month." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University: ​"The RBA has signalled its intent to hold rates for some months yet, though it is good to see some discussion about whether the current inflation target remains appropriate." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market:​ "Macro environment relatively unchanged although out of cycle rate rises will be closely monitored by RBA if the level of increases impacts already constrained consumption." 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"The RBA has stated that for the time being, they wish to be a source of stability and confidence in the economy. Rates are low and supporting economic growth which should see employment continue to grow and the unemployment rate decline further. At present there appears to be some degree of spare capacity in the labour market with relatively weak wages growth and inflation only just around the bottom of the RBA’s target band. The RBA is likely to continue this on this track until it is convinced spare capacity has fallen, wages growth is lifting and inflation rising more generally. This is only expected to occur gradually." 
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer:​ "The central bank doesn't need to make any move." 
Matthew Peter, QIC:​ "While the RBA is clearly on hold for the time being, the market is not pricing a rate hike until 2020. But with growth picking up, the labour market tightening and 
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the AUD heading to US70c, the RBA will surprise markets with a rate hike, probably as soon as the June quarter of 2019." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT:​ "No reason to move either way." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: ​"The next move is still likely to be an increase but for now, the 
economy is not strong enough to start increasing." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd:​ "We have had a positive effect re unemployment , now under 6% together with a strong outlook in the job sector, both with full time and part time positions. I feel this needs to stay on an upward trend [for] least 1 more quarter before the Reserve Bank increases rates." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: ​"Ongoing low inflation and expectations it will stay low for some time allows the RBA room to leave rates on hold." 
Brian Parker, Sunsuper:​ "Still plenty of labour market slack, and wage and price inflation not picking up anywhere near fast enough to prompt higher rates." 
Richard Holden, UNSW:​ "They should cut but they can't. [the] labor market is weak. Inflation is low." 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics:​ "The Australian economy is not overheated. Demand pull inflation is not at work. Cost push could become a problem. Private interest rates are liable to increase." 
Other participants:​ Bill Evans, Westpac. 
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