Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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The latest chart pack gives an insight into how the RBA came to its decision to leave the cash rate on hold at a record low 1.5 percent.
GDP growth continues to rise towards the four percent mark.
It is now at its highest point since 2012.
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CPI remains unpredictable, hovering above or below the two percent region.
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The gap between disposable income and consumption is narrowing.
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Consumer sentiment continues to rise to levels not seen since mid 2016.
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Housing loan approvals for investors and owner occupiers continue their downward trajectory after tighter lending criteria.
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Housing loan approvals for investors head lower given tighter lending: RBA chart park

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% at its December board meeting. That makes 26 consecutive meetings that rates have been on hold.
As has been the case with most Statements by the Governor in this cycle, there are very limited changes in this Statement.
Clearly, developments in global trade are tempering the Bank’s views on the global economy. In November, the Governor referred to “uncertainty from the direction of international trade policy in the United States”. In this Statement, he is much more explicit noting “there are, however, some signs of a slowdown in global trade partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions”.
The positive growth forecasts of 3.5% (average over 2018 and 2019) are confirmed. The positive business conditions and rising levels of public infrastructure expenditure are noted. On the other hand, uncertainty around the outlook for household consumption remains an issue.
With the increase in the AUD since the last meeting (trade weighted index up 1.5%), the sentiment “the Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on trade-weighted basis” persists. Although in November it was described as being in the lower part of the range.
Since the last board meeting, the Bank has released its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). In that SoMP, it includes a graph of the wage price index (WPI) and the Bank’s forecasts. A reasonable ‘eyeball’ of the graph points to the official forecast for growth in the wage price index to reach 2.75% by end 2020. Note that at the beginning of the three previous rate hike cycles, the WPI was growing in the range of 3.5 to 4%. That forecast certainly supports the Bank’s observation that the lift in wages growth will be a gradual process. Indeed, a reasonable person might be excused for thinking that even though the rhetoric is for the next move in the cash rate to be up, the Bank expects that event to be a very long way away.
The greatest interest was always going to be in the revised assessment of conditions in the housing market. Despite recent reports of sharp falls in prices in both Sydney and Melbourne, the description of the housing market remains “conditions… have continued to ease”. A stronger description would not have been out of place.
In November, finance conditions were described as “credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time”. The description in this Statement is “credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been for some time, with some lenders having a reduced appetite to lend”( arguably a more benign description of credit conditions).
At least the commentary is more cautious on lending growth with the term “growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers… remains robust”, being replaced by a factual assessment that the annualised pace of credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased to 5-6% (that compares with a peak of 8.8% in July 2017). It is also noteworthy that new lending to owner-occupiers fell by around 10% in the two months of August and September 2018.
The final paragraph in the Statement is unchanged, noting that progress towards reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected to be gradual.
Back in early 2017, Westpac predicted that the cash rate would remain on hold through 2017 and 2018. That view was certainly not popular in markets and in consensus forecasts.
The on hold decision today finally justifies that call.
We continue to expect that the cash rate will be on hold through 2019 and 2020.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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RBA's rate likely to be on hold until 2020: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The RBA survey of experts from Finder.com.au has seen 94 percent say tightening lending practices could negatively effect the economy.
Anticipating a tightening of lending practices following the Royal Commission, 80% of the twenty experts and economists polled in the survey​ say that it will be increasingly difficult for small businesses to access credit. 
Half the experts predict businesses to turn to smaller lenders rather than relying on the big four banks. 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, said the increased scrutiny from the Royal Commission on the larger institutions means now is the time for smaller lenders to shine.
“Increased oversight creates stricter lending criteria which usually means the smaller players can’t access cash as easily. 
“There is a big opportunity here for smaller lenders to gain an edge over the big banks due to the increasingly competitive market.”
All 32 members of the survey predicted a rate hold today, while the confidence in the next cash rate being a hike has waned since September.
Of the 27 expert responses, only 21 (78%) predicted a rise, down from 88% in September.
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Six experts (22%) are predicting a rate cut, with four citing a final cash rate of 1%.
Cooke said for the first time, Finder analysis shows one in four economists saying there will be no rise until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design. 
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up. 
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“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said. 
 
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Tightening lending practices could negatively effect economy: Finder's RBA survey

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Rising prospect that the RBA will cut before hiking: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Employment rose by 32,800 in October after a revised 7,800 increase in jobs in September (previously reported as a 5,600 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 42,300, but part-time jobs fell by 9,500. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 20,000.
Hours worked rose by 0.3% in October and lifted by 2.1% over the year. Trend hours worked rose by 0.2% in October and lifted by 2.0% over the year.
The unemployment rate was steady at a 6-year low 5.0% in October. In trend terms the jobless rate fell from 5.2% to 5.1%. In original terms the jobless rate in October was 4.77% – the lowest rate in almost eight years (December 2010).
Unemployment across states in October: NSW 4.4% (September 4.4%); Victoria 4.5% (4.6%); Queensland 6.3% (6.0%); South Australia 5.4% (5.5%); Western Australia 5.7% (6.0%); Tasmania 5.3% (5.7%). In trend terms, Northern Territory 4.6% (4.3%); ACT 3.7% (3.7%).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.
What does it all mean?
More people looking for jobs, more people finding jobs, more hours worked and a jobless rate at six-year lows. What’s not to like?
The employment market clearly remains firm. And that is clearly great news for consumer-focussed businesses. It is not just the fact that jobs are growing and wage growth is lifting, it is also the fact that people are more secure in their jobs. Add in the fact that consumer confidence is above longer-term averages. All these factors will support household spending. It is worth noting that household spending is growing at the fastest pace in six years.  
Leading indicators such as job advertisements, skilled job vacancies and the NAB business survey point to further job gains and further tightening of the job market. Wage growth is lifting, but price inflation is still contained. But the process of “normalisation” of wages, prices and interest rates remains gradual, suggesting that interest rate settings will remain unchanged over at least the next three to six months. 
At present however, the Reserve Bank will be happy to leave rate settings unchanged. But the extent of the tightening of the job market makes it hard to believe that the RBA will stay on the interest rate sidelines until 2021 as some analysts currently expect.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
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Tightening job market makes it unlikely RBA will hold until 2021: CommSec's Craig James

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The latest chart pack gives an insight into how the RBA came to its decision to leave the cash rate on hold at a record low 1.5 percent.
House prices continue to decline from the late 2017 peak.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%201.JPG" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%201.JPG" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%201.JPG" alt=""></a>
Housing loan approvals for owner-occupiers and investors continue to decline.
In 2016 there were a similar amount of approvals for investor loans and owner-occupier, but since then the gap has grown.
Investor haven't been higher the owner-occupier approvals since 2015.
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Wage price index growth has shown a steadiness over the last few months, coming after a steady decline over the last four years.
The index sits just over two percent, well down on its highs of over four percent some 10 years ago.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%203.JPG" alt="">
Despite no official rate rises for 26 consecutive months, variable interest rates continue to fluctuate.
The average standard variable reference rate has been hovering around the 5.5 percent mark for the last four years, but saw a sharp increase half way through 2018, when three of the big four decided to hike their rates.
New loans continue to decline to four year lows.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%204.JPG" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%204.JPG" alt="">
Fixed interest rates are slowly heading down towards the four percent mark, having been nearly eight percent 10 years ago.
It's the lowest fixed interest rates have been in three years.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%205.JPG" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/8/RBA%20statpack%205.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Variable rates fluctuate as fixed rates continue to decline: RBA Chart Pack

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has once again made the decision to keep the nation’s official cash rate on hold at 1.50%, reaffirming its long-running stance on monetary policy.
However, the official cash rate does not give a clear indication of what is happening with Australian home loan rates as lenders move their rates on a regular basis, pushing up borrowing costs for new and existing customers.
Following lenders’ recent out of cycle rate increases, mortgage rates edged higher in September, with the average discounted rate for owner occupiers rising from 4.50% to 4.55%, according to recent data from CoreLogic.
“Whether lenders’ rates will lift further is dependent on a number of economic factors and at present Australian economic conditions are positive on the whole and have given the RBA no reason to change its current position on monetary policy.
GDP growth has been above potential levels and business conditions are positive. The pace of increase in household indebtedness has slowed and the labour market is strong. While wage growth is benign, it is expected to grow. That being said, inflation continues to underperform market expectations and national dwelling values continue to ease. National Australia Bank’s Monthly Business Survey revealed that business conditions remained well above average and business confidence was around average levels in September. The latest Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed that consumer sentiment rose in September, however the recent leadership change in Canberra, increasing mortgage rates and declining house prices were weighing on confidence. The most recent Labour Force Survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that employment growth is strong. The unemployment rate of 5.0% is the lowest in over six years, and is largely considered to be the natural rate of unemployment in Australia. According to the most recent CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index, national dwelling values continue on their correction, taking the annual decline to 3.5% in October, signalling the weakest conditions since February 2012. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) September quarter Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report revealed headline and core inflation remain below the bottom of the RBA board’s target band, giving them little incentive to alter the cash rate. In the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting, RBA board members reflected on the changes to lending standards and observed that standards could tighten further and competition for borrowers of high credit quality remained strong.
In a housing market where house prices are declining, home loan interest rates rising despite a stagnant official cash rate and home loan applications are being scrutinised more than ever before, it’s never been more important for prospective buyers to ensure they look good on paper and seek guidance from a qualified mortgage professional. Increasingly, Australian consumers are responding to the tightened lending environment by seeking the guidance of a mortgage broker. According to the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia (MFAA), the broker channel is growing, with over 55% of new residential home loans originating through brokers in the March quarter 2018. Going forward, I would urge those looking to buy their first home or investment property, or looking to refinance an existing loan to speak to a mortgage broker first and early on in their home loan journey. 
SUSAN MITCHELL is the CEO of Mortgage Choice (pictured above).
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Policy makers make safe bet on cash rate: Mortgage Choice

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
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The global economic expansion is continuing. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. Growth in China has slowed a little, with the authorities easing policy while continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial sector. Globally, inflation remains low, although it has increased due to both higher oil prices and some lift in wages growth. A further pick-up in inflation is expected given the tight labour markets and, in the United States, the sizeable fiscal stimulus. One ongoing uncertainty regarding the global outlook stems from the direction of international trade policy in the United States.
Financial conditions in the advanced economies remain expansionary but have tightened somewhat recently. Equity prices have declined and yields on government bonds in some economies have increased, although they remain low. There has also been a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar this year. In Australia, money-market interest rates have declined recently, after increasing earlier in the year. Standard variable mortgage rates are a little higher than a few months ago and the rates charged to new borrowers for housing are generally lower than for outstanding loans.
The Australian economy is performing well. Over the past year, GDP increased by 3.4 per cent and the unemployment rate declined to 5 per cent, the lowest in six years. The forecasts for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector.
Australia's terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years and have been stronger than earlier expected. This has helped boost national income. While the terms of trade are expected to decline over time, they are likely to stay at a relatively high level. The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis, although it is currently in the lower part of that range.
The outlook for the labour market remains positive. With the economy growing above trend, a further reduction in the unemployment rate is expected to around 4¾ per cent in 2020. The vacancy rate is high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. Wages growth remains low, although it has picked up a little. The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
Inflation remains low and stable. Over the past year, CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent and, in underlying terms, inflation was 1¾ per cent. These outcomes were in line with the Bank's expectations and were influenced by declines in some administered prices due to changes in government policies. Inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2¼ per cent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year.
Conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased but remains robust, while demand by investors has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Credit conditions are tighter than they have been for some time, although mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
Source <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-27" target="_blank">RBA</a>
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Property investment slows noticeably: RBA Governor's November 2018 meeting statement

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The November meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 27 consecutive months.
The August rate hold marked the two year anniversary of the last change to the cash rate by the RBA. 
CoreLogic head of Research Tim Lawless said that despite record cash rate lows, rates are still rising.
"Although the cash rate remained on hold for a record 27th month, it’s important to note that mortgage rates to investors are up as much as fifty basis points over the same time frame," Lawless said.
"That’s the equivalent of two cash rate hikes, and variable rates for owner occupiers have increased by 15 basis points over the past two months alone. 
"The rise in mortgage rates, particularly for investors who are now paying a 55 basis point premium over owner occupiers, together with tighter lending conditions more broadly, has been a key factor in taking the heat out of the housing market. 
Lawless said that despite relatively strong economic conditions, with GDP running at a six year high and unemployment at a six year low, the recent core inflation reading was tracking at 1.7% and wages growth remains subdued.
"The ongoing fall in Australian dwelling values is also likely to be weighing more heavily on the RBA’s deliberations, with CoreLogic indices showing the housing market downturn is becoming more broad based, with most regions around Australia showing a clear slowdown in growth rates, if not declining values," Lawless suggested.
"Although mortgage rates have edged higher over recent months, the cost of debt remains at the lowest levels since the 1960’s. 
"With the cash rate remaining on hold for the foreseeable future and funding cost pressures easing, we are likely to see mortgage rates remain close to their current levels which should help to keep a floor under housing demand, especially with housing affordability now improving and labour markets strengthening. "
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate on hold today at 1.50 per cent, marking eight years since the last cash rate hike in November 2010.
In November 2010 the average loan size was $309,900. Today it is $395,800; a 28 per cent increase, according to RateCity research.
Rates have also changed significantly in this time. The average discounted variable rate in November 2010 was 7.15 per cent. Today it is 4.65 per cent.
As a result, the average Australian is paying approximately $52 less in loan repayments each month, based on a 30-year loan.
RateCity<a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">.</a>com<a href="http://ratecity.com.au/">.</a>au research director, Sally Tindall, said it’s incredible to think there is a now a generation of first home buyers who’ve never experienced an RBA rate hike. 
“Eight years is a long time between increases. Interestingly, the average home owner is paying less per month on their mortgage repayments now – but only marginally,” she said.  
“The RBA is unlikely to hike rates in the near future, but that doesn’t mean people should become complacent about paying down their debt.
“Keep an eye on your rate and shop around to see what other lenders are offering. The banks are desperate for new business, particularly as their profit margins are squeezed which is a win for borrowers.”
1300HomeLoan Managing Director John Kolenda said all signs point to the RBA leaving official rates at the all-time low of 1.5 per cent until next year and possibly 2020 with a rate cut now more likely in the long term than an increase.
Kolenda said the RBA once had form for getting amongst the action on Cup Day, but it has now been eight years since the central bank lifted its cash rate on the day that stops the nation, while its last rate movement was in August, 2016.
“It’s a pretty safe bet that the RBA’s cash rate will stay at 1.5 per cent when the Melbourne Cup is next held in November, 2019,” Kolenda said. 
“While there are some good signs for the domestic economy with lower unemployment and more first home buyers getting back into the market, the US-China trade war, housing conditions easing in Sydney and Melbourne, uncertain household consumption and the coming federal election will all influence the RBA to maintain its watching brief.
“Lenders have already increased rates out-of-cycle so there is no need for the RBA to do anything.”
 
 
 
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RBA hold at November Cup Day meeting

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One in four economists in Finder's RBA survey say that there won't be a cash rate rise until 2020. 
In September nearly 90 percent of experts predicted the next cash rate movement to be a rise. Now that number has dropped to below 80 percent.
There are six experts who are predicting a rate cut as the RBA's next cash rate move.
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist from My Housing Market said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design.
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up," Wilson said.
“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking."
"If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said it would be good news for mortgage holders if rates don't move until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices," he said.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Here's what the experts had to say:
Alan Oster, NAB: "Still waiting to see what happens to wages and the consumer."
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: "Inflation data for the third quarter came in slightly weaker than the market expected and decelerated again away from the bottom of the RBA’s target band. This is broadly in line with the Bank’s expectation however underscores that despite good economic growth the inflationary pulse in the economy is weak. In the absence of either a material pick up in wage growth and inflation the RBA simply has no reason to alter its currently policy path."
Alison Booth, ANU: "The fundamentals have not yet altered enough to warrant any change."
Brian Parker, Sunsuper: "Enough downside risks to the economic outlook and to inflation to keep RBA on hold."
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing: "Employment has reduced slightly. Housing pricing has slowed and or reduced slightly from an investor perspective. My opinion due to the impact of stamp duty payable for investor purchases."
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics: "No major changes in the economy that would warrant a change. These days, this rate is more a signalling device than anything else."
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: "Drums are beating louder for a cut but RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that next move likely to be up. Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign then a louder cut chorus will be heard - clock ticking.”
Geordan Murray, HIA: "Inflationary pressures are still below the target band and there is still excess capacity in the labour market, so rates are likely to be left on hold. It will be interesting to see what the RBA make the latest update to the labour force figures which showed the national unemployment rate dropped to 5.0 per cent, with rates in NSW and Victoria are 4.4 and 4.5 per cent, respectively. Housing credit growth is continuing to slow and home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are easing, it will be interesting to see what the RBA makes of these developments in the context of their earlier concerns about the risks posed by these two markets."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "Low inflation and slow wage growth continue to point to scope for the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold."
John Caelli, ME: "The RBA are still looking for further falls in unemployment and higher inflation. Current settings are considered appropriate to support this."
John Hewson, ANU: "Uncertain data - economy slowing."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: "We are only starting to see serious shocks in the property market. And if it escalates the accompanying uncertainly will trigger a drag on the wider economy too. The RBA will be watching closely. Its prior modelling found increases in uncertainty can trigger a downturn characterised by lower employment growth, weaker retail sales growth, and a fall in consumer confidence."
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: "When assessing the economy as a whole, its a mixed scorecard for the RBA. They will be pleased with recent developments in the labour market, though persistently low inflation, and continued falls in the housing market are obvious areas of concern. On balance, there is no immediate case to move rates in either direction, hence the likelihood that they'll remain stuck at 1.5%."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons: "We can’t see any reason for a Cup Day surprise this year. The subdued housing market, particularly the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne, combined with a weak inflation rate beneath the target range should continue to keep rates low in the short to medium term."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu: "While the RBA is bullish on growth, the housing downturn and inflation below target will lead them to leave rates on hold."
Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics: "While the unemployment rate is now close to the RBA's estimate of the natural unemployment, the RBA will want to see more evidence that wage growth is picking up. What's more, the RBA will want to see how the housing downturn is affecting consumer spending, to what extent the Royal Commission is restraining credit growth, and whether the trade war is restraining export growth."
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: "The economy remains delicately poised. With increasing fuel prices and lending rates, credit availability declining and asset prices easing, both sentiment and activity are vulnerable."
Mark Crosby, Monash University: "The RBA has signalled it will be holding rates steady this year and into early 2019."
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker: "There was no discernible change in domestic economic indicators over the past month, ensuring that the RBA will hold the cash rate steady in November. A number of global economic developments may yet have an impact on the outlook for the Australian economy. That’s said, there is little chance of a change in the official cash rate in the short term, especially given the ongoing soft inflation numbers and the slowdown in the housing market; due to higher interest rates and tighter lending restrictions by the banks."
Matthew Peter, QIC: "Rising risks to the global economy, the domestic housing downturn and modest underlying inflation mean that the RBA is in no hurry to raise rates. However, a robust economy, strong employment growth and a falling unemployment rate mean that the RBA will not want to postpone normalising the cash rate indefinitely and will pull the trigger on a first rate hike in the second half of 2019."
Michael Witts, ING Bank: "The economy is unfolding as the RBA has anticipated therefore no action required by the RBA."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists: "The RBA must be a little worried with the current crisis in consumer confidence. If anything it may want to err on the side of caution and lower rates, but it is likely to take a wait and see approach."
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group: "There has been some great economic news lately, particularly that unemployment has hit 5%. While this is the rate at which the RBA believes will kick start wages growth and inflation, this is yet to happen. As such, rates are likely to stay on hold this month."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: "They've telegraphed it for ages."
Noel Whittaker, QUT: "No reason to raise or lower. $ is down, property prices are falling and the economy is OK." Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun: "There are no economic or financial reasons to move rates at this stage."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank: "Although unemployment has fallen, consumer confidence will be shaken by the house price and stock market falls."
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank Limited: "There is no economic case for changing the cash rate at this point in time."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: "Although most recently reported economic growth figures were 'above trend', and the unemployment rate is 5% - the level traditionally regarded as signifying 'full employment' - the above trend growth is unlikely to be sustained in the near-term, the unemployment figure was probably 'rogue', there is still a lot of spare capacity in the labour market by other measures, the RBA itself has started to 'wonder out loud' that unemployment probably needs to be lower for longer than history suggests before wages growth starts to pick up - and, most importantly of all, the latest CPI data show 'underlying' inflation still running below the RBA's target range."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "The fall in the official unemployment rate to 5% helped by above trend economic growth is good news. But the slide in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne risks accelerating as banks tighten lending standards which in turn threatens consumer spending and wider economic growth and inflation and wages growth remain low. Against this backdrop, it remains appropriate for the RBA to leave rates on hold."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics: "RBA is continuing to ignore its inflation target otherwise it would be cutting."
Tim Nelson, Griffith University: "RBA believes current state of monetary policy is acting to gradually reduce unemployment with inflation in check. "
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