Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

<html><body>
The RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent in its May meeting.
It has now stayed at record lows for 30 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016, under the eye of former RBA governor Glenn Stevens.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says despite the hold, a cash rate cut soon seems likely.
"The flat CPI reading for the March quarter wasn’t enough to drag interest rates lower, although the likelihood of a cash rate cut over coming months remains high," Lawless said.
"While inflation remains below the RBA’s target range, labour markets generally remain relatively strong, supported by NSW and Vic, and the decline in housing values has lost some speed over recent months.
"If the cash rate does move lower later this year, a reduction in mortgage rates would provide some support for housing demand, however we may not see quite as much stimulus for housing market conditions that we have seen after previous rate cuts.  
"Generally, housing sentiment remains low and borrower mortgage serviceability is still assessed based on mortgage rates of at least 7%.  
"Households who already have a mortgage, or prospective borrowers who are able to satisfy lender credit policies will be the winners if interest rates do fall later this year."
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA keeps cash rate on hold at May 2019 meeting despite growing pressure

<html><body>
Nearly three quarters of the experts and economists surveyed in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the cash rate will be dropped to 1% by the end of the year.
Of the 40 experts and economists surveyed, 30 (75%) predict a cash rate hold in May.
The experts by and large cited strong employment numbers and the pending Federal election as the main reasons for the hold.
More than 84% of experts believe there will be a cut in the next three months, while 73% predict a cash rate drop to 1% or lower by the end of the year.
It was only six months ago that one in four of the experts believed there would be <a href="/expert-insights/finance/one-in-four-economists-say-no-rate-rise-until-2020-finder">no rate rise until 2020</a>.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the increased prediction for a cut was driven by recently released consumer price index (CPI) numbers and the waning housing market.  “The latest 0% inflation results may have far-reaching implications for our economy. While the results came as a bit of a surprise to our panel, flat inflation will be a huge worry for the RBA, who are aiming to keep inflation between 2% and 3%," Cooke said. “Irrespective of May’s decision, the majority of experts expect at least one cut by August and many expect another cut after that – meaning a cash rate of 1% is in sight."
Economists have put forward (below), the circumstances in the economy that would likely trigger a rate cut.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/9d14533f-32fb-4f1d-b20b-f945f6dd5459.png" width="602" height="407">
Cooke said it’s clear that even a small change in the unemployment rate or a further drop in inflation could trigger a cut.
"Despite an imminent rate cute, consumers don’t need to wait for the cash rate to fall to cash in," he added.
“Whether the cash rate is at 1.5% or 1.25%, it’s still as low as we’ve seen in our history and home loans rates are equally at historic lows.”
 <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/cb4b58a6-db91-45ad-a2c2-edfc91df5ca6.png" width="600" height="355">
What the experts said.
Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion (Hold): "Although the CPI figures were a surprise, and the case for a cut is evenly balanced, I think the RBA can wait and look for confirmation before deciding to cut in May. Also, automotive fuel costs were the biggest deflationary factor in the March data, and crude prices are more expensive now. Clearly, the RBA's language in April introduced a more dovish emphasis, but given the firm jobs market, the RBA can choose to wait until after the election." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Decrease): "Rate cuts were already on the way thanks to slower economic growth and the downturn in the housing cycle, but weaker than expected underlying inflation in the March quarter argues that the RBA should move sooner rather than later." John Hewson, ANU (Decrease): "Getting worried about [the] outlook." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "Economic fundamentals do not yet justify a change." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu (Hold): "Despite a strong case for a rate cut, we expect the RBA to avoid political controversy just over a week from the election." David Robertson, Bendigo Bank (Hold): "Very close call, as the inflation report was very weak, but expect they may wait a month or two to see how the jobs data progresses." Ben Udy, Capital Economics (Decrease): "The economic outlook is now weaker than the last time the RBA cut rates and is likely to deteriorate further.” Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Rate cuts unlikely to do much for the inflation or growth outlooks." Tim Moore, Credit Union Australia (Hold): "RBA will shift to an easing bias. Whilst CPI came in below expectations and moving away from the RBA target range, until we see weakness in the employment data we believe the RBA will remain on hold." Trent Wiltshire, Domain (Hold): "Due to weaker than expected inflation in the March quarter, the RBA will shift its commentary to an explicit easing bias, but will hold off from cutting rates this month." John Rolfe, Elders Home Loans (Hold): "Pressure is there for a reduction but with an election in 11 days, I believe the RBA will hold." Debra Landgrebe, Gateway Bank (Hold): "It appears that the market is expecting it, with the softer than expected inflation outcome. However, unemployment data remains stable. A cash rate cut does appear imminent either in May or June." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Short term rates have declined and thus the money market may provide liquidity and or Actual rates relieve pressure.  More likely next month and system weakness remains." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "This is the first 'live' meeting for the RBA for some time. The weaker than expected inflation data gives the RBA a trigger to ease policy immediately. Underlying inflation has unambiguously decelerated.  However, the timing of the Federal election does give rise to the prospect of such a move being politicized - which may be awkward for the Bank. Also, the RBA may choose to focus on the labour market in its deliberations and with employment growth still solid and the unemployment rate trending lower this is still progress towards its objectives. The Statement on Monetary Policy will give the RBA the opportunity to make the case for its action. The arguments are finely balanced, and I would not be surprised if the RBA cut rates in May." Michael Witts, ING Bank (Decrease): "The inflation print is a concern for the RBA notwithstanding the positive labour market the RBA will be seeking to reflate the economy. It must be remembered that interest rate changes have a lagged impact on the economy.” Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun (Hold): "There's no compelling reason to move rates right now although this may be a different story in four to six months time. Moving rates in the month of the Federal election would not appear to be a prudent move because political and economic certainty go hand in hand." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "It’s as close a call as the RBA has faced in recent times. The March quarter CPI figures were a bit of a shock but we still see the hold pattern as the prudent course. A single rate cut takes time to wash through the system and generate an impact and the economic situation is fluid, particularly given the upcoming election, so leaving rates unchanged for now seems appropriate." Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "They may (finally) want to cut what with the disastrous recent inflation numbers, but they may then revive the doctrine that interest rate changes during an election campaign are 'political', something that Glenn Stevens effectively refuted by pointing out that not cutting rates was also political. I think they'll find it (psychologically) easier to sit on their hands for another month." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Decrease): "Despite the ongoing labour market strength and the looming election, persistently soft inflation data and weakness in housing markets will prompt the RBA to cut rates at its May board meeting." Geoffrey Harold Kingston, Macquarie University (Hold): "The recent dip in inflation will have caught the Bank unawares &amp; it may well try &amp; save face by using the upcoming meeting to signal that it will cut soon." Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Decrease): "Weak economy, low inflation." John Caelli, ME Bank (Hold): "The case for cutting the cash rate has increased significantly, however, we expect the RBA to hold and wait for more data before cutting to a new record low." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Decrease): "In its April minutes the RBA acknowledged that "a rate cut would be appropriate if inflation didn't move any higher and unemployment printed up." In the last months, both inflation and GDP growth must have disappointed the RBA. While unemployment has remained stable, inflation has been falling, being 0% for the last quarter." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "It is line ball, however I think that the RBA will take the view that a 25 basis point cut won't do much for inflation - they have really wasted their ammunition with the last two cuts. So cutting now just puts them further below the point where conventional monetary policy has any impact." Katrina Ell, Moody's Analytics (Hold): "Need unemployment to consistently head higher before cutting rates. This hasn't happened." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "Cutting the cash rate could serve to stimulate the property market. National dwelling values have been consistently trending lower for seventeen months according to CoreLogic. However, history shows us that the RBA does not move the cash rate during an election campaign, so the RBA is likely to hold the cash rate in May. However, a number of factors would make the case for a cut when the board meet again in June or August, should some of the key current factors prevail." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Hold): "Although latest inflation data remains subdued, low inflation in isolation should not be a catalyst to change the interest rate cycle after nearly three years on hold. Early signs of higher wages growth, a continuing strong labour market and indications that recent declines in house prices may now be bottoming out suggest the RBA will remain on the sidelines for another month." Andrew Reeve-Parker, NW Advice Pty Limited (Hold): "The RBA is unlikely to act in an election month." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer  (Hold): "The RBA will wait and see the effect of the tax cuts." Matthew Peter, QIC (Decrease): "The drop in inflation in the first quarter is the tipping point for the first RBA rate move since 2016. The RBA has been clear in its intent that if inflation were to falter, rates would be coming down. This is now the case, so there is no longer any hurdle for a rate cut." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No point in lowering them - nothing to be gained." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "This is a hard call! Inflation numbers are terrible but jobs still looking ok. Plus there is an election coming up. I’m going with hold but I am not as confident as with my previous calls." Sveta Angelopoulos, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University (Hold):"Although inflation figures point to a potential decrease in the cash rate the RBA may hold off a little longer, waiting for the election outcome (and reaction), as well as the March 2019 National Accounts information." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L (Hold): "Due to our Federal election May 18th 2019." Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "It will be a close call. Low inflation and weak growth outlook suggests a case can be made for a rate cut. However, the ongoing strength of the labour market suggests that the RBA may want to wait to see incoming data unfolds. Recent RBA commentary suggests it may want to reconcile the strength in the labour market and weak economic growth before acting." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Decrease): "CPI may have been the straw that finally broke the camel's back. Consistent below-target inflation and the likelihood of a softening labour market justify a cut." Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report (Hold): "Too close to the election." Sandy Suardi, University of Wollongong (Hold): "Concern with falling housing prices and possible weakening demand in the real estate sector despite a falling inflation rate." Richard Holden, UNSW Business School (Decrease): "Inflation, or lack thereof." Other participants: Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold) 
</body></html>

75% of experts and economists predict 1% cash rate by year's end: Finder RBA Survey

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate.
Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”.
The Board even sets out the conditions for a rate cut, “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.
Recently the latest quarterly breakdown of employment by industry printed for the year to February.
We have considered this industry breakdown to try to find some insights into the RBA’s “tension” between the GDP and Employment Reports.
For a start it is reasonable to separate out the employment data into “cyclical” and “non-cyclical” sectors.
We have looked at “non-cyclical” covering: public administration; education and training; health care; and utilities.
Cyclical sectors are considered to be the other thirteen including: construction; manufacturing; retail and wholesale trade; accommodation; transport; finance; mining; real estate; recreation; and media.
The “non-cyclical “group has increased as a proportion of total employment from 27.9% in February 2008 to 31.9% in February 2019. That 4% increase in share represents 510,000 jobs in today’s workforce.
The cyclical group has fallen as a proportion of the workforce from 64.6% in February 2008 to 59.4% in February 2019.
It is important to note that “public administration” has increased by 18% over the last year but we assess that a considerable part of that increase has been due to reclassification of health and education workers from “private” to “public”.
Because we are including public; education; and health in the noncyclical category the reclassification does not distort the results.
Finally we have one remaining category – “professional services”.
This group represents 8.7% of total employment covering: management consulting; computer system design; accounting services; legal services; and engineers.
This category represents 8.7% of total employment having increased from 7.4% in February 2008.
Consider Table 1 to assess whether there has been any evidence of the impact of the slowdown in growth in the economy on employment.
The table uses the six month annualised growth rate for jobs in the three categories (using a two quarter average to smooth the series).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/19/New%20Project%207.jpg" alt="">
The following observations are relevant:
<ul>
<li>As noted by the RBA, overall momentum in the jobs market has held fairly steady over the last 18 months despite the slowdown in economic growth (2.6% in the six months to February 2018 to 2.2% in the last six months).</li>
<li>However, momentum in the “cyclical” sectors has slowed markedly from 2.9% in the six months to February 2018 to –0.4% in the six months to February 2019.</li>
<li>Momentum in the “non-cyclical” sectors has lifted considerably from 1.5% to 5.6% over the same period.</li>
<li>The professional services sector has been booming. So the “puzzle” about the labour market is not as opaque as might be expected.</li>
</ul>
Non-cyclical jobs (dominated by government) have been strong and this sector is increasing as a proportion of total employment.
Cyclical sectors are slowing markedly and are falling as a proportion of total employment.
Given the lags and the cautious outlook for growth, employment in these sectors is likely to continue to slow.
It is not clear whether the “professional services” sector best fits in the cyclical or the non-cyclical categories.
Certainly, strong government spending in the infrastructure space is likely to explain a considerable part of the success of this category; the sharp lift in government regulations is also supporting this sector.
Furthermore, there is also likely to be a structural element to the success of this sector as companies embrace technology to boost productivity and substitute labour.
Conclusion
The Board of the RBA has nominated the labour market as the key for the policy outlook.
We are disappointed that ongoing low inflation and the persistent need to lower growth forecasts seems to be out-weighed by the employment “story”.
Our analysis points to a marked slowdown in jobs growth already being well underway in the cyclical sectors of the economy.
We expect that eventual recognition of these facts will keep the RBA on track for our expected first rate cut in August.
Bill Evans is Chief Economist at Westpac.
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Cyclical jobs are slowing, complicating the RBA’s employment puzzle: Bill Evans

<html><body>
Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, the first major economist to forecast cash rate cuts, has slightly shifted his view saying that we could see the first rate cut pushed back.
His original forecast of multiple 0.25% rate cuts was made back in the first week of December last year.
Since this point a number of economists and institutions have made similar forecasts, including Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans and Alan Oster, NAB's chief economist.
Oliver suggested the first cut would come around June.
Today he suggests it will now come later given some better than expected economic data.
In his original forecast the reasons he gave were a combination of "falling house prices, tightening credit conditions and constrained growth which will keep wages growth weak and inflation below target".
Shane Oliver said, "however, with the RBA still seeing the next move as being up it will take them a while to change their thinking so we don’t see rates being cut until second half next year."
"When it does start cutting the RBA will likely stick to 0.25% increments and since rate moves are a bit like cockroaches there is likely to be more than one." 
He recently revised his forecast.
In the latest weekly report he released Mr Oliver stated, "due to somewhat better economic data lately, tax cuts for low and middle income earners regardless of who wins the election and ongoing RBA optimism about the economy picking up, rate cut expectations have faded a little bit."
"However, while this could see the first rate cut pushed back out a bit we continue to see the RBA cutting rates twice this year as the housing downturn dampens economic growth and keep inflation below target for longer."
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Shane Oliver pushes cash rate cut forecast back to later this year

 Decline in housing prices has led to slowing consumption: RBA's Guy Debelle

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%.
However, our research shows that there has been a very significant change in the Governor’s Statement for this month. Recall that Governor Lowe has not changed monetary policy since he became Governor in September 2016.
Also note that the key concluding sentence, which has been used in every Statement since October 2016 has been “the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time”. The clear implication behind that statement is an expectation that policy was likely to be on hold for a considerable period. As we have seen, that was an accurate assessment.
In the April Statement, he has changed this language for the first time ever. He still notes that “the Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting”. However, he then changes tact with a new sentence. “The Board will continue to monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time”. Although, a cursory glance at this sentence might not indicate any change in stance, it does give greater emphasis to the fluidity of the current situation. If this change was not intended, then clearly he would have continued with the approach that has marked his time as Governor.
Therefore this change appears to be a very clear intention to signal that policy is much more ‘live’ than has been the case since the Governor was appointed.
This signal is consistent with Westpac’s expectation that the Board is likely to adopt an easing bias following the May Board meeting. Our thinking behind that approach has been that the Statement on Monetary Policy for May will include a downward revision of the Bank’s growth forecasts. Further support for this view is apparent in the exclusion of the RBA’s current growth forecasts in the April Governor’s Statement. Arguably, this indicates an uneasiness with the 3% for 2019 and the 2 ¾% for 2020.
In the RBA’s defence, note that the March Governor’s Statement came before the release of the December quarter National Accounts, which showed that six month annualised growth had slowed to 1% in the second half of 2018. We expect that the RBA will lower its 2019 growth forecast from 3% to 2 ¾%, and the 2020 forecast from 2 ¾% to 2 ½%. Those forecasts are either at or below ‘potential growth’ (assessed as 2 ¾%).
In commenting on the low growth rate for 2018 of 2.3%, the Governor pointed out “the GDP data paint a softer picture of the economy than do the labour market data”. Arguably, the RBA may hold off from a specific easing bias( despite forecasting below trend growth), attributing this tension in the data as key to the outlook for policy.
Westpac has argued that the actual rate cut will not occur until August, when a further downward revision of forecast growth will be required and evidence will be building of a slowdown in the labour market.
Last week, we wrote on the potential impact of tonight’s Federal Budget on monetary policy. If the Governor saw the Budget as a significant swing factor in his thinking, it is unlikely that he would have chosen to change the language in the Statement just before the announcement.
It is our view that a boost to disposable income from tax cuts will certainly be of some assistance to the economy, but is unlikely to sufficiently offset the near term drag on incomes and spending from the negative wealth effect from falling house prices; weak wages growth; and a major downturn in activity in the housing market.
We were a little surprised with the Governor’s change in stance but find it consistent with our general view that the RBA is on track to adopt an easing bias in May and cut the overnight cash rate in August and November.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
</body></html>

Why one small change could signal a big shift in the RBA's thinking: Bill Evans

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION 
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates remain on hold for the 29th meeting (or 32nd month) in a row. No surprise there.
But while the RBA’s post meeting statement was little changed in relation to global conditions, the strong labour market and the housing “adjustment”, it did sound a little bit more dovish in two areas.
First in its acknowledgement of weak December quarter GDP growth and consumer spending.
And second in adding at the very end of its statement that it “will continue to monitor developments”.
Of course it would be dangerous to read too much into this but maybe the RBA’s neutral bias on rates is getting a bit less neutral in the direction of easing.
Our view remains that the RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – particularly in terms of its impact on consumer spending – and as a consequence we still see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
As a result, our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
At this stage it makes sense for the RBA to see what the Budget and the election bring in terms of fiscal stimulus, but our base case is that the first cut will come around June but with the RBA moving to an easing bias at its May meeting.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA starting to sound a little more dovish: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has today made the decision to leave the nation’s official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.50%.
RBA board members have held the nation’s cash rate yet again, however a range of economic factors are likely to encourage the bank to cut the rate.
The OCR’s function as an anchor to lenders’ interest rates shifted over 2018, as lenders were forced to respond to higher funding costs. Moreover, markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by August this year, adding further pressure on the RBA to change its long held stance on monetary policy.
The RBA considers a range of global and domestic economic factors when making its monetary policy decisions. At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve took a dovish stance on monetary policy, opting to hold the Fed funds rate at 2.25-2.50%. A rate hike was expected by the Fed, however comments from Chairman Powell points to no increases in the near-term due to ongoing economic expansion in the US.
In the minutes of the March Monetary Policy Meeting, RBA board members noted that trade tensions continue to weigh on the global economic outlook. Members noted that in Australia, labour market conditions had continued to improve. The RBA continues to monitor the weakening housing market, drawing attention to Sydney and Melbourne, where dwelling values had fallen 13% and 10% respectively, since their peaks.
The most recent CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index revealed that national dwelling values fell by 0.6% over March and have fallen by a cumulative 7.4% since peaking in October 2017.
The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the number of dwelling commitments to owner-occupiers fell 2.6% over January 2019.
Furthermore, National Australia Bank’s most recent Monthly Business Survey points to deteriorating business confidence. Similarly, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed the weakest consumer mood since September 2017.
Today’s strict lending practices, born out of lenders’ self-imposed tightening in the wake of the Banking Royal Commission, continues to play a part in the slowing property market. This places greater importance on the need for future home buyers and borrowers alike to get in shape financially.
The slowdown in the nation’s economic growth would also be of concern to RBA board members, with recent GDP data revealing a slowdown in growth due in part to declining dwelling investment.
In the current lending environment, my advice to borrowers would be to speak to a mortgage broker to ensure their home loan applications are as tight as possible. The reality is that lenders are going to call out any and all undeclared living expenses on home loan applications, significantly lengthening the time to approval.
Preparing for a home loan application today is not as simple as saving for a deposit. The high level of scrutiny by loan assessors means prospective buyers, and those looking to refinance their loans, should be: cutting back on discretionary spending at least six months ahead; closing credit cards that are no longer being used and reducing limits where possible; and knowing where they are spending every dollar.
The good news for those with property ownership aspirations is that lenders are aggressively competing for low risk borrowers, which means it’s a great time to learn what your options are.
If you are looking to apply for a home loan this year and need to get home buying ready, speak to your local Mortgage Choice mortgage broker. A broker will assess your financial situation in the same way a lender would and give you a clear indication of your borrowing power.
When the time comes your broker can help you prepare a home loan application that has the best chance of being viewed favourably by the lender you choose.
SUSAN MITCHELL is the Chief Executive Officer of Mortgage Choice
</body></html>

RBA's stalemate nearing its end: Mortgage Choice CEO Susan Mitchell

<html><body>
The April meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 29 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said there is a growing likelihood the cash rate will move lower later this year.
"While labour markets remain strong, low unemployment and above average jobs growth is generally confined to New South Wales and Victoria," Lawless said.
"Concerns around slowing consumption as the wealth effect reverses, causing households to pull back on spending and revert to saving were likely a central theme of the RBA’s board meeting deliberations. 
"The ongoing falls in dwelling values have the potential to weigh down consumer attitudes towards spending and cause a sharper than anticipated fall in residential construction activity.
"The latest data from CoreLogic shows the pace of decline has eased off somewhat over the past couple of months, but the geographic scope of weak housing market conditions has broadened. 
"With values trending lower across most regions of Australia, household wealth is being eroded and the risks of a downturn in consumer spending are heightened.  Also, with economic growth losing momentum, as well as inflation and wages growth remaining below expectations, there are plenty of reasons why the RBA might have considered a cut to the cash rate today. 
"The consensus from financial markets remains that interest rates will be cut later this year. 
"We should get a better feel for the RBA’s monetary policy position via the Financial Stability Review, released on April 12, and the Statement on Monetary Policy, released on May 10. 
"Chances are we will see some downwards revisions to the RBA’s forecasts for economic growth and inflation which could set the scene for lower rates over the second half of the year.  
 
</body></html>

RBA continues to hold rates at record lows in April

<html><body>
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although growth has slowed and downside risks have increased. Growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to ease financing conditions, partly in response to slower growth in the economy. Globally, headline inflation rates have moved lower following the earlier decline in oil prices, although core inflation has picked up in a number of economies. In most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative and have eased recently. Long-term bond yields have declined further, consistent with the subdued outlook for inflation and lower expectations for future policy rates in a number of advanced economies. Across a range of markets, risk premiums remain low. Equity markets have also risen and are being supported by growth in corporate earnings. In Australia, long-term bond yields have fallen to historically low levels and short-term bank funding costs have moderated further. The Australian dollar has remained within its narrow range of recent times. While the terms of trade have increased over the past couple of years, they are expected to decline over time.
The Australian labour market remains strong. There has been a significant increase in employment and the unemployment rate is at 4.9 per cent. The vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. The stronger labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. Continued improvement in the labour market is expected to see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
The GDP data paint a softer picture of the economy than do the labour market data. GDP rose by just 0.2 per cent in the December quarter to be 2.3 per cent higher over 2018. Growth in household consumption is being affected by the protracted period of weakness in real household disposable income and the adjustment in housing markets. The drought in parts of the country has also affected farm output. Offsetting these factors, higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and an upswing in private investment are supporting the growth outlook, as is the steady growth in employment.
The adjustment in established housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices in some cities. Conditions remain soft and rent inflation remains low. Credit conditions for some borrowers have tightened a little further over the past year or so. At the same time, the demand for credit by investors in the housing market has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
Inflation remains low and stable. Underlying inflation is expected to pick up gradually over the next couple of years, although this has been taking a little longer than earlier expected. The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 2 per cent this year and 2¼ per cent in 2020. In the near term, headline inflation is expected to decline because of lower petrol prices earlier in the year, while underlying inflation is expected to remain broadly stable.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. The Board will continue to monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
</body></html>

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News