Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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The RBA's recent discussion around housing was "quite understated," according to the Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.
He noted the latest minutes indicated “the process of adjustment in the housing market had continued.”
Evans said there was some recognition by the RBA board members of the spill-over of housing prices to activity, “some part of the slowdown in retail and motor vehicle spending in NSW was likely to have been related to declines in housing prices”.
Evans also said he was "disappointed" to note that the RBA was persisting with a view that “the pipeline of work to be done remained large and was expected to support dwelling investment through 2019”.
Evans said that dwelling investment peaked in mid-2018 with around a six per cent fall in the second half of 2018.
He supports the RBA’s expectation for a “marked slowing in dwelling investment”, but expects that this has come earlier than their expectation of “in 1-2 years’ time”.
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Evans noted the RBA has raised the importance of data releases over the next few months and left open the possibility to cut rates should those releases disappoint.
"Certainly, the December quarter national accounts would have fitted into that category, although the emphasis remains on the labour market data.
"Westpac does expect that consistent with the slowdown in spending and deterioration in both business and consumer confidence, we will see emerging evidence of a slowing labour market over the course of the next six months.
"Westpac’s timetable for policy action remains a 25bps cut in August to be followed by a second 25bps cut in November.
"These dates will give the RBA appropriate scope to explain their decisions in the context of weaker growth, employment and inflation forecasts in an orderly fashion, rather than be seen to overreact to any particular data report," Evans said.
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Bill Evans says the RBA's view on dwelling pipeline was disappointing

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA Board has taken a step closer to cutting rates by emphasising the near-term importance of data releases. Westpac sees this approach as consistent with its expected timetable of rate cuts in August and November.
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<div>
<div>
The Minutes of the March Reserve Bank Board meeting emphasise the Board’s uncertainty around the slowdown in output data while labour market data remains robust.
In the final paragraph of the section on the policy outlook, the Board noted “they assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady while new information became available that could help resolve the current tensions in the domestic economic data”.
Presumably, the release of the December quarter national accounts the day after the Board meeting will have further accentuated this tension. In the minutes, the Board speculated that “GDP growth over 2018 had been a little lower than anticipated at the time of the February Statement on Monetary Policy”. In fact, annual GDP growth in 2018 printed 2.3% compared to the RBA’s estimate in February of 2.75% - hardly consistent with the description “a little lower”. The minutes also noted that the accounts were likely to confirm a “markedly slower pace of growth in the second half of 2018 than in the first half”. In fact, the accounts printed a 4% annualised pace in the first half, down to a 1% annualised pace in the second half.
The tension that the minutes refer to is around conditions in the labour market, which “had continued to improve”, while “leading indicators continued to suggest that employment growth was likely to remain above average, although some indicators have turned down a little recently”.
Based on the key policy conclusion, developments in the monthly labour market series and associated lead indicators will be very important for the policy response, although the sharper than expected slowdown in 2018 H2 will probably make the RBA more prepared to act than appears to be the mindset in these minutes.
Because the forecasts are only reviewed every three months, it is entirely unsurprising  that the minutes confirm the current GDP growth forecast in 2019 of 3 per cent and a further decline in the unemployment rate to 4 ¾ per cent over the next couple of years. With the momentum in the economy having slowed to a 1% pace in the second half of 2018, it remains a courageous call that growth could lift to 3% in 2019. Westpac expects that the RBA will lower its forecast for 2019 to 2.75% and to 2.5% in 2020 in its May Statement on Monetary Policy and adopt a specific easing bias.
We are disappointed to note that the RBA is persisting with a view that “the pipeline of work to be done remained large and was expected to support dwelling investment through 2019”. It appears that dwelling investment peaked in mid-2018 with around a 6 per cent fall in the second half of 2018. We support the RBA’s expectation for a “marked slowing in dwelling investment”, but expect that this has come earlier than their expectation of “in 1-2 years’ time”.
Nervousness around consumer spending remains a consistent theme in these minutes. Indeed, the expectation was that “consumption was expected to have contributed more to growth in the December quarter than in the September quarter”. In fact, December’s consumption growth of 0.4% was only slightly greater than the 0.3% reported for September. A 1.5% annualised growth pace for consumption is around half the expected trend.
The discussion around housing remains quite understated, “the process of adjustment in the housing market had continued”, although there is some recognition of the spill-over of housing prices to activity, “some part of the slowdown in retail and motor vehicle spending in NSW was likely to have been related to declines in housing prices”.
We are always interested in how the Board describes market pricing. According to our pricing model, the market was giving an 88% probability of a rate cut of a full 25bps by December 2019 as at 4 March. In contrast, the minutes note “financial market pricing implied the cash rate was expected to remain unchanged in 2019, but a reduction in the cash rate was expected by early 2020”.
Finally, it is important to note that “members noted significant uncertainties around the forecasts remain, with scenarios where an increase in the cash rate would be appropriate at some point, and other scenarios where a decrease in the cash rate would be appropriate”. As the Federal Reserve likes to emphasise, policy has become “data-dependent”.
Conclusion
The Board has raised the importance of data releases over the next few months and has left open the possibility to cut rates should those releases disappoint. Certainly, the December quarter national accounts would have fitted into that category, although the emphasis remains on the labour market data.
Westpac does expect that consistent with the slowdown in spending and deterioration in both business and consumer confidence, we will see emerging evidence of a slowing labour market over the course of the next six months.
Westpac’s timetable for policy action remains a 25bps cut in August to be followed by a second 25bps cut in November. These dates will give the RBA appropriate scope to explain their decisions in the context of weaker growth, employment and inflation forecasts in an orderly fashion, rather than be seen to overreact to any particular data report.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist at Westpac
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Reserve Bank Board minutes emphasise importance of data releases: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We now think that the RBA will make two rate cuts in 2019.
Growth appears to have lost significant momentum, placing at risk further improvement in the labour market at a time when inflation poses little constraint on policy and financial stability risks have abated.
We have pencilled in one 25bp cut to 1.25% in July and a further 25bp cut to 1% in November.
We see the timing of a rate cut as very data dependent; any deterioration in the labour market would lead to cuts and this could happen earlier than the financial market currently anticipates. 
If, as we expect, the loss of momentum in private-sector activity seen in H2 2018 continues, then there is unlikely to be much improvement in the labour market despite its resilience to date. This view is reinforced by the forward indicators in the NAB Business Survey pointing to continuing (if not further) weakening. That is especially so for private consumption and the residential construction cycle.
This means the RBA outlook for a further fall in unemployment to gradually lift wages and ultimately inflation is increasingly in doubt. We therefore expect the RBA to provide some further support to the economy in the form of lower interest rates.
Determining the timing of such moves is much more difficult, but we are forecasting two 25bp cuts in July and November. In this respect, we note that the RBA is independent and the political cycle should and will be irrelevant to the timing of a rate cut.
With monetary policy being forward looking, we think the RBA will act this year on a “no regrets” basis to boost economic activity and to offset a likely (on our forecasts) increase in unemployment in 2020. It is possible that further policy adjustment will be required in 2020.
Last month we removed our expectation for any increase in the cash rate over the next 18 months.
Even when judged against the RBA’s relatively positive outlook for growth and relatively good labour market outcomes, there seemed little case for a near-term increase in the cash rate given inflation remained a little below target. In shifting our view, we noted that, if anything, there was a significant chance of a near-term interest rate cut, particularly should building downside risks materialise.
The Q4 national accounts confirmed that the downturn in the residential construction sector is likely to be as sharp as we had previously forecast and similar in magnitude to the early 1990s recession. It also confirmed that consumption growth has remained weak, alongside only modest growth in household income.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey showed that the business sector lost significant momentum through the second half of 2018, with low business confidence suggesting little expected improvement. Indeed forward indicators in the Survey all suggested that firms believe that the loss of momentum will continue.
The only part of the Survey that had maintained strong momentum is employment, but we see this as very much related to previously strong conditions in H1 2018. The key question then is: will employment continue to hold up?
We fear not, given job advertisements have declined modestly for a number of months, suggesting that employment growth will ease. While we have only made modest downward revisions to our previous growth forecasts of 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year, we now expect little if any improvement in the near term in the unemployment rate, with an eventual increase later in the forecast horizon.
Wage growth is predicted to lift to around 2½ -2¾% by the end 2020 - not seen to be enough to see inflation rise to the middle of the RBA target band.
There remains some downside risks to our growth forecasts - and consequently labour market and inflation forecasts - if there turn out to be significant ‘wealth effects’ from the fall in house prices or if business investment should turn out materially weaker, as the Business Survey has begun to suggest as a risk.
What developments would allow the RBA to continue to keep interest rates on hold?
Chiefly, if the unemployment rate remained low – or declined further – in spite of ongoing weak consumption growth and the downturn in housing construction. That seems unlikely to us.
Substantial fiscal stimulus in the upcoming Budget would also be helpful, as would a sustained reduction in short-end funding pressures faced by lenders.
ALAN OSTER is the Chief Economist for NAB Group
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NAB now predicting two cash rate cuts in 2019: Alan Oster

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GDP growth disappoints, sliding into "GDP per capita recession": Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Over the past month, we have seen a shift in cash rate predictions for 2019 from economists. Some see it holding throughout the year, some anticipate one 0.25 percentage points (pp) cut and major bank Westpac is now projecting two 0.25pp cuts to reach 1.00 per cent by year end.
Looking at these forecasts from a mortgage holder’s perspective, does it still matter if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds or cuts the official cash rate given Australian banks have increased their rates in recent times independently of the cash rate?
Since August 2016, the RBA has held the official cash rate steady at a record-low 1.5 per cent; however, during that time the standard variable rate set by the banks has declined once and been lifted twice.
The history
The margin between the standard variable mortgage rate and the RBA’s official cash rate has widened over the past nine years.
At the peak of the post-GFC rate cycle, in November 2010, the RBA lifted rates by 0.25pp to 4.75 per cent. At that point in time, RBA data shows that the standard variable rate for owner occupiers was 7.80 per cent – a difference of 3.05pp compared to the official cash rate. A year later, the RBA dropped the cash rate by 0.25pp to 4.5 per cent and though the variable rate also fell to 7.55 per cent, the difference remained the same.
During the 12 months to November 2012, the cash rate was cut four times to sit at 3.25 per cent. In conjunction, the standard variable rate also fell, but not at the same pace, to 6.63 per cent. This broadened the gap between the two rates to 3.39pp.
Fast-forward to January 2019, the cash rate stands at 1.5 per cent and the variable rate is 5.37 per cent; the highest margin on record of 3.87pp.
The widening gap applies whether standard or discount variable rates are used; and in order to return to the margin of 3.05pp seen in 2010 the RBA would have to lift the cash rate by 0.25pp three times throughout the year.
Considering the Australian housing market is currently going through a period of adjustment and borrowers have been hit with rate hikes due to increasing interest rates in overseas markets, many economists are predicting that the RBA will cut the cash rate even further in an effort to achieve its inflation objective.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/6/RBA%20LJ%20Hooker.JPG" alt=""> 
Impact on mortgage rates
Although banks are generally expected to keep rates in-line with the RBA’s cash rate, it’s not guaranteed; as funding costs for mortgages are based on many economic and financial factors.
One factor is the strength of the Australian economy. Indicators like unemployment and GDP, which determines household wealth and drives changes in the Aussie dollar, influence the demand for home loans which can either propel rates higher or lower. Presently, the RBA is keeping an eye on household consumption, which accounts for approximately 60 per cent of spending in the economy.
Mortgage rates can also be influenced by the banks’ short-term borrowing such as bank bill swap and overnight cash rates, which impacts the funding costs of our major banks. If short-term borrowing rates are on the rise, banks could pass on that savings to mortgage holders by hiking interest rates.
Trends like a narrowing of the credit-deposit gap – the amount of borrowing compared to savings – is another factor impacting interest rates. An ongoing credit-deposit gap would add pressure to short-term funding; and again, the banks could pass that savings to mortgage holders.
In addition, global economies and financial markets impact the cost of funding for our local banks. These include government bond rates and the monetary policy settings of the world’s major economies. All eyes are currently on China as its economy has slowed more than expected and tensions with the United States squeezes finance to the private sector.
What it means for you
A report by Deloitte found that 41 per cent of Australian mortgage holders do not keep track of the cash rate or consider its impact on their home loan. And with the cash rate being at a record-low for 30 consecutive months, Australians can be absolved for underestimating its importance.
As illustrated, banks do not have to keep interest rates in line with the RBA’s cash rate. However, the cash rate will impact the cost of funding for the banks; sequentially, impacting mortgage repayments as banks pass on those costs to consumers. So yes, it’s still relevant for mortgage holders to stay up-to-date on the RBA’s monthly decision.
Despite the cash rate being kept on hold, the regulatory and economic environment has already triggered changes in mortgages rates; hence, why it’s vital for mortgage holders to also be across all major economic news - domestic and global.
MATHEW TILLER (pictured) is the head of research at LJ Hooker
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/6/Mathew%20Tiller.jpg" alt="">
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Is there still relevance in RBA rate watching? Matthew Tiller

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Only five percent of homes are in negative equity, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe advised in his speech to the AFR Business Summit.
"Our estimate is that currently, less than five percent of indebted owner-occupier households have negative equity, and the vast bulk of these households continue to meet their mortgage obligations," Lowe said.
Lowe says one factor that has helped is that the share of new loans with high loan-to-valuation ratios (LVRs) has declined substantially (Graph 15 below).
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/6/Graph15-RBA.jpg" alt="">
"The nature of Australian mortgages – in which there is an incentive to make prepayments – has also helped," Lowe added.
Lowe expects a further tightening of the labour market, which will see a gradual increase in wages growth and faster income growth.
"This should provide a counterweight to the effect on spending of lower housing prices," Lowe suggested.
"Taking these various considerations into account, the adjustment in our housing market is manageable for the overall economy."
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Only 5% of homes in negative equity says RBA

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting provided nothing new from the RBA.
Interest rates were left on hold for the 28th meeting in a row. The RBA sees the global outlook as being reasonable but with increased downside risks.
It still sees the labour market as strong  and expects to see some lift in wages growth. It sees domestic growth picking up to around 3% by year end but with uncertainty remaining around consumer spending.
It sees the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne continuing. And it continues to expect underlying inflation to pick up over the next couple of years.
A speech by RBA Governor Lowe tomorrow and the Minutes from the meeting in two weeks’ time will likely provide more colour around how the RBA sees the risks – but they are likely to portray them as remaining balanced, implying a neutral bias on rates.
Our view is that RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – particularly in terms of its impact on consumer spending – and as a consequence we still see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
Consistent with this we have seen a run of soft data this year and corporate profit results reflecting difficult conditions particularly around the housing and consumer sectors.
December quarter GDP growth to be released tomorrow looks like being soft again albeit with public spending saving the day but possibly not enough to prevent a “per capita” recession, ie, two quarters in a row with GDP per person going backwards.
As a result our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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AMP Capital's view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by 2020: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Changes to the Governor’s Statement were minimal with the issues around growth developments and the housing market still in flux.
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50%.
There were minimal changes in the wording from the Statement following the February Board meeting.
In fact, at least in the February Board meeting, it was recognised that “some downside risks have increased” for the domestic economy. In this Statement, that downside risk is not mentioned. The Governor does point out that “other indicators suggest growth in the Australian economy slowed over the second half of 2018”.
Of course, the extent of this slowing will be revealed in the GDP report which prints at 11:30 am tomorrow. Westpac expects that the six month annualised growth pace in the economy will slow from 4 per cent in 2018 H1 to 1 per cent in 2018 H2. This spectacular slowing, even if at 1.5% in H2, is surely worthy of stronger language than seen in this Statement.
It is also no surprise that the Board still forecasts growth around 3 per cent this year. Any change will only be made following the May Board meeting.
There has been considerable uncertainty as to whether the Bank assesses falling house prices as a threat to household consumption. Some official comments deny the existence of significant wealth effects.
Today’s Statement seems to confirm that there is a concern of a wealth effect, “the main domestic uncertainty continues to be the strength of household consumption in the context of weak growth in household income and falling house prices in some cities”. That seems to indicate recognition of a wealth effect.
Commentary around the housing market is, surprisingly, slightly more constructive. In February, the markets were described as “weakened further”, whereas today’s Statement notes “conditions remain soft”. The data would indicate further deterioration.
The labour market continues to be described as “strong”, and the unemployment rate forecast of 4 ¾ per cent over the next couple of years is confirmed. Westpac expects that given a much softer growth environment, there will be a modest increase in the unemployment rate through 2019.
Conclusion
We are not surprised that the Governor chose not to repeat his commentary in a recent speech that prospects for interest rates are now evenly balanced. This commentary and the ‘rate hike’ commentary has never appeared in the Governor’s Statement and was limited to Board minutes; Statement on Monetary Policy; and some speeches.
We have to recognise that the Statement today is slightly more upbeat than we saw in February. As we later found out, the Board decided in February to restate the risks around interest rates to be more symmetric than had been the consistent practice through 2018.
Perhaps, that significant change required strong language, whereas today, despite no real encouragement from the data, it was considered more appropriate to be circumspect.
Nevertheless the changes are very small and the real issues around growth developments and the housing market are yet to unfold.
Westpac confirms its view that the RBA Board will decide to cut rates by 25bps in both August and November 2019.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Westpac still expecting RBA to cut rates in August and November: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50 per cent for the 31st straight month (28th meeting).
The last rate change was a quarter percent rate cut on 2 August 2016.
What has changed since the last meeting? 
The Australian jobless rate remained at a 7½-year low at 5 per cent in January. 
The NSW jobless rate fell to a record low of 3.9 per cent in January. 
The CoreLogic national home price index fell by 6.3 per cent over the year to February 2019. 
Building approvals rose by 2.5 per cent in January.  Annual credit growth stands at 4.3 per cent – the slowest rate recorded in 5 years.
Australian business conditions rose from a 4-year low of 2.6 points to 6.6 points in January.
The Australian sharemarket has lifted, with investors digesting results for the earnings season.
Business investment rose 2.0 per cent in the December quarter.
Construction prices are rising at the fastest rate in 9 years.
Company profits hit record highs in 2018.
Wages rose 2.3 per cent over the year to December. Including bonuses: 2.8 per cent – highest in four years. 
The Australian dollar has fallen from US72.50 cents to around US71 cents. 
Investors are encouraged by reported progress on a US-China trade agreement The assessment 
The Reserve Bank remains sidelined.
Continued job market strength is critical to the economic and interest rate outlook.
While the Board acknowledged that “the slower pace of [economic] growth has continued into 2019”, it still expects “growth of around 3 per cent this year”.
The Bank continues to note that the labour market is “strong”.
One key uncertainty is consumer spending, but even on this point the Reserve Bank expects spending to be supported by “a pick-up in growth in household income.”
Perspectives on interest rates
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 per cent. The previous move was a rate cut in August 2016 (25 basis points).
There have been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, with the Reserve Bank cutting rates from 4.75 per cent to 1.50 per cent. 
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.
 What are the implications of today’s decision?
 It’s important to stress the Reserve Bank is forwardlooking.
If the Bank believes that current settings will produce stronger growth, then there is no need to alter policy.
Watch the job market and consumer spending as they are keys to any change in rates in months ahead.
CRAIG JAMES is CommSec's Chief Economist
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Upbeat Reserve Bank sees stronger growth: CommSec's Craig James

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The March meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 28 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says there is a growing possibility that rates could fall later this year. 
"The strong labour market report for January was likely a key factor in keeping rates on hold, however in balance, wages have grown at a consistently low rate growth and inflation remains stubbornly below the target range," Lawless said.
"The sharp slowdown in residential construction activity and relatively benign retail trade figures may be hinting that weak housing market conditions are already spilling over to the broader economy. 
"No doubt the RBA are tracking housing market conditions very closely, watching for any further deterioration that might signal a dent to consumer spirits, resulting in less spending, more saving and a further pull back in residential construction activity. 
"CoreLogic reported another broad based decline in dwelling values in February, down 0.7% nationally, however the good news was that the rate of decline has eased over the past two months and housing affordability is showing a consistent improvement across most housing markets.  
"The performance of the housing sector over coming months should provide some clues about future monetary policy decisions. 
"A further deterioration in the pace or geographic scope of declines could tip the balance in favour of a rate cut later this year as the RBA becomes wary of the wealth effect moving into reverse.
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