Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Rba Rate Decision

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The RBA's recent discussion around housing was "quite understated," according to the Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.
He noted the latest minutes indicated “the process of adjustment in the housing market had continued.”
Evans said there was some recognition by the RBA board members of the spill-over of housing prices to activity, “some part of the slowdown in retail and motor vehicle spending in NSW was likely to have been related to declines in housing prices”.
Evans also said he was "disappointed" to note that the RBA was persisting with a view that “the pipeline of work to be done remained large and was expected to support dwelling investment through 2019”.
Evans said that dwelling investment peaked in mid-2018 with around a six per cent fall in the second half of 2018.
He supports the RBA’s expectation for a “marked slowing in dwelling investment”, but expects that this has come earlier than their expectation of “in 1-2 years’ time”.
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Evans noted the RBA has raised the importance of data releases over the next few months and left open the possibility to cut rates should those releases disappoint.
"Certainly, the December quarter national accounts would have fitted into that category, although the emphasis remains on the labour market data.
"Westpac does expect that consistent with the slowdown in spending and deterioration in both business and consumer confidence, we will see emerging evidence of a slowing labour market over the course of the next six months.
"Westpac’s timetable for policy action remains a 25bps cut in August to be followed by a second 25bps cut in November.
"These dates will give the RBA appropriate scope to explain their decisions in the context of weaker growth, employment and inflation forecasts in an orderly fashion, rather than be seen to overreact to any particular data report," Evans said.
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Bill Evans says the RBA's view on dwelling pipeline was disappointing

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA Board has taken a step closer to cutting rates by emphasising the near-term importance of data releases. Westpac sees this approach as consistent with its expected timetable of rate cuts in August and November.
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The Minutes of the March Reserve Bank Board meeting emphasise the Board’s uncertainty around the slowdown in output data while labour market data remains robust.
In the final paragraph of the section on the policy outlook, the Board noted “they assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady while new information became available that could help resolve the current tensions in the domestic economic data”.
Presumably, the release of the December quarter national accounts the day after the Board meeting will have further accentuated this tension. In the minutes, the Board speculated that “GDP growth over 2018 had been a little lower than anticipated at the time of the February Statement on Monetary Policy”. In fact, annual GDP growth in 2018 printed 2.3% compared to the RBA’s estimate in February of 2.75% - hardly consistent with the description “a little lower”. The minutes also noted that the accounts were likely to confirm a “markedly slower pace of growth in the second half of 2018 than in the first half”. In fact, the accounts printed a 4% annualised pace in the first half, down to a 1% annualised pace in the second half.
The tension that the minutes refer to is around conditions in the labour market, which “had continued to improve”, while “leading indicators continued to suggest that employment growth was likely to remain above average, although some indicators have turned down a little recently”.
Based on the key policy conclusion, developments in the monthly labour market series and associated lead indicators will be very important for the policy response, although the sharper than expected slowdown in 2018 H2 will probably make the RBA more prepared to act than appears to be the mindset in these minutes.
Because the forecasts are only reviewed every three months, it is entirely unsurprising  that the minutes confirm the current GDP growth forecast in 2019 of 3 per cent and a further decline in the unemployment rate to 4 ¾ per cent over the next couple of years. With the momentum in the economy having slowed to a 1% pace in the second half of 2018, it remains a courageous call that growth could lift to 3% in 2019. Westpac expects that the RBA will lower its forecast for 2019 to 2.75% and to 2.5% in 2020 in its May Statement on Monetary Policy and adopt a specific easing bias.
We are disappointed to note that the RBA is persisting with a view that “the pipeline of work to be done remained large and was expected to support dwelling investment through 2019”. It appears that dwelling investment peaked in mid-2018 with around a 6 per cent fall in the second half of 2018. We support the RBA’s expectation for a “marked slowing in dwelling investment”, but expect that this has come earlier than their expectation of “in 1-2 years’ time”.
Nervousness around consumer spending remains a consistent theme in these minutes. Indeed, the expectation was that “consumption was expected to have contributed more to growth in the December quarter than in the September quarter”. In fact, December’s consumption growth of 0.4% was only slightly greater than the 0.3% reported for September. A 1.5% annualised growth pace for consumption is around half the expected trend.
The discussion around housing remains quite understated, “the process of adjustment in the housing market had continued”, although there is some recognition of the spill-over of housing prices to activity, “some part of the slowdown in retail and motor vehicle spending in NSW was likely to have been related to declines in housing prices”.
We are always interested in how the Board describes market pricing. According to our pricing model, the market was giving an 88% probability of a rate cut of a full 25bps by December 2019 as at 4 March. In contrast, the minutes note “financial market pricing implied the cash rate was expected to remain unchanged in 2019, but a reduction in the cash rate was expected by early 2020”.
Finally, it is important to note that “members noted significant uncertainties around the forecasts remain, with scenarios where an increase in the cash rate would be appropriate at some point, and other scenarios where a decrease in the cash rate would be appropriate”. As the Federal Reserve likes to emphasise, policy has become “data-dependent”.
Conclusion
The Board has raised the importance of data releases over the next few months and has left open the possibility to cut rates should those releases disappoint. Certainly, the December quarter national accounts would have fitted into that category, although the emphasis remains on the labour market data.
Westpac does expect that consistent with the slowdown in spending and deterioration in both business and consumer confidence, we will see emerging evidence of a slowing labour market over the course of the next six months.
Westpac’s timetable for policy action remains a 25bps cut in August to be followed by a second 25bps cut in November. These dates will give the RBA appropriate scope to explain their decisions in the context of weaker growth, employment and inflation forecasts in an orderly fashion, rather than be seen to overreact to any particular data report.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist at Westpac
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Reserve Bank Board minutes emphasise importance of data releases: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
We now think that the RBA will make two rate cuts in 2019.
Growth appears to have lost significant momentum, placing at risk further improvement in the labour market at a time when inflation poses little constraint on policy and financial stability risks have abated.
We have pencilled in one 25bp cut to 1.25% in July and a further 25bp cut to 1% in November.
We see the timing of a rate cut as very data dependent; any deterioration in the labour market would lead to cuts and this could happen earlier than the financial market currently anticipates. 
If, as we expect, the loss of momentum in private-sector activity seen in H2 2018 continues, then there is unlikely to be much improvement in the labour market despite its resilience to date. This view is reinforced by the forward indicators in the NAB Business Survey pointing to continuing (if not further) weakening. That is especially so for private consumption and the residential construction cycle.
This means the RBA outlook for a further fall in unemployment to gradually lift wages and ultimately inflation is increasingly in doubt. We therefore expect the RBA to provide some further support to the economy in the form of lower interest rates.
Determining the timing of such moves is much more difficult, but we are forecasting two 25bp cuts in July and November. In this respect, we note that the RBA is independent and the political cycle should and will be irrelevant to the timing of a rate cut.
With monetary policy being forward looking, we think the RBA will act this year on a “no regrets” basis to boost economic activity and to offset a likely (on our forecasts) increase in unemployment in 2020. It is possible that further policy adjustment will be required in 2020.
Last month we removed our expectation for any increase in the cash rate over the next 18 months.
Even when judged against the RBA’s relatively positive outlook for growth and relatively good labour market outcomes, there seemed little case for a near-term increase in the cash rate given inflation remained a little below target. In shifting our view, we noted that, if anything, there was a significant chance of a near-term interest rate cut, particularly should building downside risks materialise.
The Q4 national accounts confirmed that the downturn in the residential construction sector is likely to be as sharp as we had previously forecast and similar in magnitude to the early 1990s recession. It also confirmed that consumption growth has remained weak, alongside only modest growth in household income.
The NAB Monthly Business Survey showed that the business sector lost significant momentum through the second half of 2018, with low business confidence suggesting little expected improvement. Indeed forward indicators in the Survey all suggested that firms believe that the loss of momentum will continue.
The only part of the Survey that had maintained strong momentum is employment, but we see this as very much related to previously strong conditions in H1 2018. The key question then is: will employment continue to hold up?
We fear not, given job advertisements have declined modestly for a number of months, suggesting that employment growth will ease. While we have only made modest downward revisions to our previous growth forecasts of 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year, we now expect little if any improvement in the near term in the unemployment rate, with an eventual increase later in the forecast horizon.
Wage growth is predicted to lift to around 2½ -2¾% by the end 2020 - not seen to be enough to see inflation rise to the middle of the RBA target band.
There remains some downside risks to our growth forecasts - and consequently labour market and inflation forecasts - if there turn out to be significant ‘wealth effects’ from the fall in house prices or if business investment should turn out materially weaker, as the Business Survey has begun to suggest as a risk.
What developments would allow the RBA to continue to keep interest rates on hold?
Chiefly, if the unemployment rate remained low – or declined further – in spite of ongoing weak consumption growth and the downturn in housing construction. That seems unlikely to us.
Substantial fiscal stimulus in the upcoming Budget would also be helpful, as would a sustained reduction in short-end funding pressures faced by lenders.
ALAN OSTER is the Chief Economist for NAB Group
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NAB now predicting two cash rate cuts in 2019: Alan Oster

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GDP growth disappoints, sliding into "GDP per capita recession": Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Over the past month, we have seen a shift in cash rate predictions for 2019 from economists. Some see it holding throughout the year, some anticipate one 0.25 percentage points (pp) cut and major bank Westpac is now projecting two 0.25pp cuts to reach 1.00 per cent by year end.
Looking at these forecasts from a mortgage holder’s perspective, does it still matter if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds or cuts the official cash rate given Australian banks have increased their rates in recent times independently of the cash rate?
Since August 2016, the RBA has held the official cash rate steady at a record-low 1.5 per cent; however, during that time the standard variable rate set by the banks has declined once and been lifted twice.
The history
The margin between the standard variable mortgage rate and the RBA’s official cash rate has widened over the past nine years.
At the peak of the post-GFC rate cycle, in November 2010, the RBA lifted rates by 0.25pp to 4.75 per cent. At that point in time, RBA data shows that the standard variable rate for owner occupiers was 7.80 per cent – a difference of 3.05pp compared to the official cash rate. A year later, the RBA dropped the cash rate by 0.25pp to 4.5 per cent and though the variable rate also fell to 7.55 per cent, the difference remained the same.
During the 12 months to November 2012, the cash rate was cut four times to sit at 3.25 per cent. In conjunction, the standard variable rate also fell, but not at the same pace, to 6.63 per cent. This broadened the gap between the two rates to 3.39pp.
Fast-forward to January 2019, the cash rate stands at 1.5 per cent and the variable rate is 5.37 per cent; the highest margin on record of 3.87pp.
The widening gap applies whether standard or discount variable rates are used; and in order to return to the margin of 3.05pp seen in 2010 the RBA would have to lift the cash rate by 0.25pp three times throughout the year.
Considering the Australian housing market is currently going through a period of adjustment and borrowers have been hit with rate hikes due to increasing interest rates in overseas markets, many economists are predicting that the RBA will cut the cash rate even further in an effort to achieve its inflation objective.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/6/RBA%20LJ%20Hooker.JPG" alt=""> 
Impact on mortgage rates
Although banks are generally expected to keep rates in-line with the RBA’s cash rate, it’s not guaranteed; as funding costs for mortgages are based on many economic and financial factors.
One factor is the strength of the Australian economy. Indicators like unemployment and GDP, which determines household wealth and drives changes in the Aussie dollar, influence the demand for home loans which can either propel rates higher or lower. Presently, the RBA is keeping an eye on household consumption, which accounts for approximately 60 per cent of spending in the economy.
Mortgage rates can also be influenced by the banks’ short-term borrowing such as bank bill swap and overnight cash rates, which impacts the funding costs of our major banks. If short-term borrowing rates are on the rise, banks could pass on that savings to mortgage holders by hiking interest rates.
Trends like a narrowing of the credit-deposit gap – the amount of borrowing compared to savings – is another factor impacting interest rates. An ongoing credit-deposit gap would add pressure to short-term funding; and again, the banks could pass that savings to mortgage holders.
In addition, global economies and financial markets impact the cost of funding for our local banks. These include government bond rates and the monetary policy settings of the world’s major economies. All eyes are currently on China as its economy has slowed more than expected and tensions with the United States squeezes finance to the private sector.
What it means for you
A report by Deloitte found that 41 per cent of Australian mortgage holders do not keep track of the cash rate or consider its impact on their home loan. And with the cash rate being at a record-low for 30 consecutive months, Australians can be absolved for underestimating its importance.
As illustrated, banks do not have to keep interest rates in line with the RBA’s cash rate. However, the cash rate will impact the cost of funding for the banks; sequentially, impacting mortgage repayments as banks pass on those costs to consumers. So yes, it’s still relevant for mortgage holders to stay up-to-date on the RBA’s monthly decision.
Despite the cash rate being kept on hold, the regulatory and economic environment has already triggered changes in mortgages rates; hence, why it’s vital for mortgage holders to also be across all major economic news - domestic and global.
MATHEW TILLER (pictured) is the head of research at LJ Hooker
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/6/Mathew%20Tiller.jpg" alt="">
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Is there still relevance in RBA rate watching? Matthew Tiller

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Only five percent of homes are in negative equity, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe advised in his speech to the AFR Business Summit.
"Our estimate is that currently, less than five percent of indebted owner-occupier households have negative equity, and the vast bulk of these households continue to meet their mortgage obligations," Lowe said.
Lowe says one factor that has helped is that the share of new loans with high loan-to-valuation ratios (LVRs) has declined substantially (Graph 15 below).
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/6/Graph15-RBA.jpg" alt="">
"The nature of Australian mortgages – in which there is an incentive to make prepayments – has also helped," Lowe added.
Lowe expects a further tightening of the labour market, which will see a gradual increase in wages growth and faster income growth.
"This should provide a counterweight to the effect on spending of lower housing prices," Lowe suggested.
"Taking these various considerations into account, the adjustment in our housing market is manageable for the overall economy."
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Only 5% of homes in negative equity says RBA

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting provided nothing new from the RBA.
Interest rates were left on hold for the 28th meeting in a row. The RBA sees the global outlook as being reasonable but with increased downside risks.
It still sees the labour market as strong  and expects to see some lift in wages growth. It sees domestic growth picking up to around 3% by year end but with uncertainty remaining around consumer spending.
It sees the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne continuing. And it continues to expect underlying inflation to pick up over the next couple of years.
A speech by RBA Governor Lowe tomorrow and the Minutes from the meeting in two weeks’ time will likely provide more colour around how the RBA sees the risks – but they are likely to portray them as remaining balanced, implying a neutral bias on rates.
Our view is that RBA is underestimating the impact of the housing downturn on the economy – particularly in terms of its impact on consumer spending – and as a consequence we still see weaker growth and lower inflation than the RBA is forecasting.
Consistent with this we have seen a run of soft data this year and corporate profit results reflecting difficult conditions particularly around the housing and consumer sectors.
December quarter GDP growth to be released tomorrow looks like being soft again albeit with public spending saving the day but possibly not enough to prevent a “per capita” recession, ie, two quarters in a row with GDP per person going backwards.
As a result our view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by year end.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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AMP Capital's view remains that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 1% by 2020: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Changes to the Governor’s Statement were minimal with the issues around growth developments and the housing market still in flux.
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50%.
There were minimal changes in the wording from the Statement following the February Board meeting.
In fact, at least in the February Board meeting, it was recognised that “some downside risks have increased” for the domestic economy. In this Statement, that downside risk is not mentioned. The Governor does point out that “other indicators suggest growth in the Australian economy slowed over the second half of 2018”.
Of course, the extent of this slowing will be revealed in the GDP report which prints at 11:30 am tomorrow. Westpac expects that the six month annualised growth pace in the economy will slow from 4 per cent in 2018 H1 to 1 per cent in 2018 H2. This spectacular slowing, even if at 1.5% in H2, is surely worthy of stronger language than seen in this Statement.
It is also no surprise that the Board still forecasts growth around 3 per cent this year. Any change will only be made following the May Board meeting.
There has been considerable uncertainty as to whether the Bank assesses falling house prices as a threat to household consumption. Some official comments deny the existence of significant wealth effects.
Today’s Statement seems to confirm that there is a concern of a wealth effect, “the main domestic uncertainty continues to be the strength of household consumption in the context of weak growth in household income and falling house prices in some cities”. That seems to indicate recognition of a wealth effect.
Commentary around the housing market is, surprisingly, slightly more constructive. In February, the markets were described as “weakened further”, whereas today’s Statement notes “conditions remain soft”. The data would indicate further deterioration.
The labour market continues to be described as “strong”, and the unemployment rate forecast of 4 ¾ per cent over the next couple of years is confirmed. Westpac expects that given a much softer growth environment, there will be a modest increase in the unemployment rate through 2019.
Conclusion
We are not surprised that the Governor chose not to repeat his commentary in a recent speech that prospects for interest rates are now evenly balanced. This commentary and the ‘rate hike’ commentary has never appeared in the Governor’s Statement and was limited to Board minutes; Statement on Monetary Policy; and some speeches.
We have to recognise that the Statement today is slightly more upbeat than we saw in February. As we later found out, the Board decided in February to restate the risks around interest rates to be more symmetric than had been the consistent practice through 2018.
Perhaps, that significant change required strong language, whereas today, despite no real encouragement from the data, it was considered more appropriate to be circumspect.
Nevertheless the changes are very small and the real issues around growth developments and the housing market are yet to unfold.
Westpac confirms its view that the RBA Board will decide to cut rates by 25bps in both August and November 2019.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Westpac still expecting RBA to cut rates in August and November: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50 per cent for the 31st straight month (28th meeting).
The last rate change was a quarter percent rate cut on 2 August 2016.
What has changed since the last meeting? 
The Australian jobless rate remained at a 7½-year low at 5 per cent in January. 
The NSW jobless rate fell to a record low of 3.9 per cent in January. 
The CoreLogic national home price index fell by 6.3 per cent over the year to February 2019. 
Building approvals rose by 2.5 per cent in January.  Annual credit growth stands at 4.3 per cent – the slowest rate recorded in 5 years.
Australian business conditions rose from a 4-year low of 2.6 points to 6.6 points in January.
The Australian sharemarket has lifted, with investors digesting results for the earnings season.
Business investment rose 2.0 per cent in the December quarter.
Construction prices are rising at the fastest rate in 9 years.
Company profits hit record highs in 2018.
Wages rose 2.3 per cent over the year to December. Including bonuses: 2.8 per cent – highest in four years. 
The Australian dollar has fallen from US72.50 cents to around US71 cents. 
Investors are encouraged by reported progress on a US-China trade agreement The assessment 
The Reserve Bank remains sidelined.
Continued job market strength is critical to the economic and interest rate outlook.
While the Board acknowledged that “the slower pace of [economic] growth has continued into 2019”, it still expects “growth of around 3 per cent this year”.
The Bank continues to note that the labour market is “strong”.
One key uncertainty is consumer spending, but even on this point the Reserve Bank expects spending to be supported by “a pick-up in growth in household income.”
Perspectives on interest rates
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 per cent. The previous move was a rate cut in August 2016 (25 basis points).
There have been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, with the Reserve Bank cutting rates from 4.75 per cent to 1.50 per cent. 
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.
 What are the implications of today’s decision?
 It’s important to stress the Reserve Bank is forwardlooking.
If the Bank believes that current settings will produce stronger growth, then there is no need to alter policy.
Watch the job market and consumer spending as they are keys to any change in rates in months ahead.
CRAIG JAMES is CommSec's Chief Economist
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Upbeat Reserve Bank sees stronger growth: CommSec's Craig James

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The March meeting of the RBA has seen the cash rate remain on hold at 1.5 percent.
It has now stayed at record lows for 28 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says there is a growing possibility that rates could fall later this year. 
"The strong labour market report for January was likely a key factor in keeping rates on hold, however in balance, wages have grown at a consistently low rate growth and inflation remains stubbornly below the target range," Lawless said.
"The sharp slowdown in residential construction activity and relatively benign retail trade figures may be hinting that weak housing market conditions are already spilling over to the broader economy. 
"No doubt the RBA are tracking housing market conditions very closely, watching for any further deterioration that might signal a dent to consumer spirits, resulting in less spending, more saving and a further pull back in residential construction activity. 
"CoreLogic reported another broad based decline in dwelling values in February, down 0.7% nationally, however the good news was that the rate of decline has eased over the past two months and housing affordability is showing a consistent improvement across most housing markets.  
"The performance of the housing sector over coming months should provide some clues about future monetary policy decisions. 
"A further deterioration in the pace or geographic scope of declines could tip the balance in favour of a rate cut later this year as the RBA becomes wary of the wealth effect moving into reverse.
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