<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>Another data series suggesting that 30-60 day arrears are now very close to the lowest level on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>First it was <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/arrears-down-again" target="_blank">S&amp;P Global</a> that reported as such, as I charted at the attached link. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this time, it's Moody's.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zDA0uid4qrw/WlxunAW2WVI/AAAAAAAAn7o/nNM0owABILQ81EpoWGwXoqVbINf1otG0wCLcBGAs/s1600/Moody%2527s.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zDA0uid4qrw/WlxunAW2WVI/AAAAAAAAn7o/nNM0owABILQ81EpoWGwXoqVbINf1otG0wCLcBGAs/s640/Moody%2527s.jpg" width="640" height="310" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
<p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Moody's</span></em></p>
<div>Total 90+ day Prime RMBS arrears declined from 1.62 per cent to 1.54 per cent in the September quarter, according to Moody's Investor Service.<br><br>The main improvement was seen in shadow lenders, with delinquencies declining from 2.85 per cent to 2.59 per cent, which there was also a solid decline in non-confirming loan arrears to 3.3 per cent.<br><br>Elsewhere it was reported that loan impairment charges were also close to record lows in 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Good to see. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage arrears down again, including shadow lenders: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-2358659028075496425" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>As usual vacancy rates were higher in the month of December at 2.5 per cent or 80,092 vacancies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the record high level of building, vacancies were considerably lower than a year earlier, when there were 89,721 vacancies according to SQM Research figures.<br><br>The year-on-year decrease reflects a combination of strong population growth and a very high volume of higher-density apartments still under construction, there being a lag in the completion of this dwelling type. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart has a record low vacancy rate for any capital city of an extremely tight 0.3 per cent, while Canberra (1.3 per cent) and Adelaide (1.5 per cent) remain tight rental markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Asking rents have increased strongly in Hobart and Canberra accordingly over 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perth and Darwin also seem to have turned a corner, with vacancy rates well down from a year earlier, while Melbourne's 2.1 per cent vacancy rate was also well down from 2.4 per cent in December 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This downtrend wasn't the case everywhere however, with Sydney recording a multi-year high reading of 2.6 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers can jag around a bit, but smoothing the figures on a 6mMA basis gives a sense of the relative condition of the rental market in each city and the prevailing trends. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s1600/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Piajs6T7H5I/Wl4_t1_nSNI/AAAAAAAAn8U/fmBZ8lYfqc4ko5vIMpvkfWOC5PMiqLASwCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1385"></a></div>
<br><div>At the end of the 2017 financial year, New South Wales had a record 64,470 attached dwellings under construction, with the overdue flood of completions doubtless accounting for the jump in December. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth in Sydney nevertheless remains strong, so it will be interesting to see how the market fares in 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On that note, the latest building activity figures are due out today, and these will shed further light on completions and the pipeline remaining under construction. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s1600/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UvrQILlqT8k/Wl5CUZV9A5I/AAAAAAAAn8g/urEYDDEt-ugkqXs6HFmF2TIgKJ5GRZfQQCLcBGAs/s640/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> <span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
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Rental vacancies down in 2017; but not everywhere: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>And that, sadly, is that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's auto production industry is no more. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) monthly figures recorded the production of one solitary vehicle in November. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as 2013 it was common to see 15,000-20,000 vehicles per month rolling off production lines.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the persistently strong Aussie dollar and high cost of manufacturing in Australia ultimately proved to be an obstacle too far.  </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KB8rLk_emuA/Wk_vB3kA82I/AAAAAAAAn0c/FeEKoG8c4_Y6mVuNjBMxdo0xHEA_P55EQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1326"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Department of Employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/the-car-in-front-is-import" target="_blank">projected</a> that the factory closures at Elizabeth in Adelaide (Holden) and Altona in Melbourne (Toyota) could cost 27,500 jobs over the years ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many in the industry have been employed for more than two decades.<br><br>And consider how the world has changed since that time - there was no LinkedIn of Facebook back then, for example, and job applications were submitted on paper.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the full impact on supply chains is as yet unknown, and despite some better industry readings of late, the manufacturing industry remains in a structural decline, with total employment <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/a-thousand-new-jobs-per-day" target="_blank">falling again in 2017</a>. </div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>I took a look at <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/growth-hacking" target="_blank">here</a> at where future growth will come from instead.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></span></div>
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Growth after Australia's auto production industry is no more: Pete Wargent

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<p>S&amp;P Global Ratings has reported that Australia's prime SPIN 30+ day delinquencies declined a little further from 1.08 per cent to 1.04 per cent in October 2017.</p>
<div id="post-body-3454931207027681415">
<div>
<p>31-60 day prime mortgage arrears have now been tracking at historic lows since June 2017.</p>
<p>There's still a bit happening in the 90+ days space, but arrears have been improving here too since May.</p>
<p>Year-on-year mortgage arrears were comfortably lower.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
</div>
<div>Declines were reported in all mainland states and territories. </div>
<br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s1600/SandP.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s400/SandP.jpg" width="400" height="327" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="788"></a></div>
<br><div>Source: S&amp;P Global Ratings</div>
<br><div>Western Australia continued to have the highest rate of 30-day arrears, declining from 2.21 per cent to 2.12 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lowest rate of delinquency was to be found in the ACT at only 0.58 per cent (Canberra has <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/drain-swamp" target="_blank">by far the highest incomes</a> on the country). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales 30-day arrears fell from 0.79 per cent to only 0.75 per cent in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arrears were also below 1 per cent in Victoria and Tasmania.<br><br>Over the past year the biggest improvers were the southern states of Tasmania and South Australia (the other ex-mining state jurisdictions had low arrears already).<br><br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1302"></a></div>
</div>
<div>As at the beginning of 2017, S&amp;P Global had reported:<br><br>"We believe that the risk of a sharp, disorderly correction in house prices remains relatively low, reflecting our stable economic outlook for Australia."<br><br>While risks remain, S&amp;P commented this month:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"We do not expect arrears to increase much above current levels while benign economic conditions persist." </div>
</div>
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Mortgage delinquencies decline further: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration ramps up</span></strong> </h3>
<div id="post-body-155762510240148591" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cXo6Ufv2gDQ/WjJTzVumIyI/AAAAAAAAnf4/BBlzAgtAwhAF_LC6OW8FhT3NgdFEhc8CwCEwYBhgL/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1365"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LZZuYdS5HSM/WjJT0FS0FDI/AAAAAAAAngA/m-EYw80q2zMkI46Laz-D1m9bnJ2KIuIqgCEwYBhgL/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1370"></div>
<br>The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The MEL-SYD magnet</span></strong><br><br><div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pl2VghDoCuo/WjJTza1LiDI/AAAAAAAAnf8/3UmliFCK3nMN_VUDh84b-0nWa6p-3s5UgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1392"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dfDLEg-BH-8/WjJTzaFtR8I/AAAAAAAAnf0/qAOH-d7gZfQiSN6yQ4oT8TgHKHpToZwpgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1384"></div>
<br><span>The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland. </span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bMxm4NYxqrc/WjLC27yxf5I/AAAAAAAAngY/9zYLijf0apQg8BZFiDK4pRf_kjivTGldQCLcBGAs/s640/sydney-opera-house-354376_1920.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="1068" data-original-width="1600"></div>
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<div class="separator">
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span>
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for October 2017, which showed housing credit expanding by +6.5 per cent over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit is slowing, but total housing credit growth remained higher than a year earlier, when it was +6.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit broke through $1.7 trillion on the strength in owner-occupier lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>$60 billion of loans have now been reclassified from investor to owner-occupier. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1403"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit contracted by -0.9 per cent over the year, while annual business credit growth was steady at +4 per cent.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Know your limits</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA also released its monthly banking statistics, which revealed a similar trend, with the monthly result showing considerably faster growth in owner-occupier loans (+0.6 per cent) than investment lending (+0.15 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Comparing the aggregates suggests that non-banks continue to garner market share. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac has been offering discounted investor loans of late, and took the opportunity to grow its investment loans books further in the month (it already has the largest mortgage book pertaining to investors). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Indeed, not only is new interest-only lending now well below the proposed regulatory cap, all of the major banks are now seeing investor credit growing at way below the 10 per cent annual speed limit. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1367"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>These statistics show that there is potentially plenty of scope for banks to incentivise faster investor lending in 2018, particularly Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank.<br><br>Oh, and there's a Royal Commission to follow!</div>
<div> </div>
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RBA's October Financial Aggregates figures sees housing credit expand

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<p>It's been an exciting few years for Australian crane-spotters, but the peak is now in, at least for the residential sector.</p>
<p>In fact, the most active quarter for residential building work done was all the way back in June 2016; it just mightn't feel that way if you live in Sydney. </p>
<p>Looking at the value of work done on new houses, the uplift through this cycle only looks moderately impressive, with a steady contraction underway, broadly since 2015.</p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NpaiNlbtoLs/WhrQSpMYoUI/AAAAAAAAnMM/KS0g8VInmno0DgcEwUMEvmoSSZJJ05cLACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1356"></p>
<p>Of course, this cycle has been far more notable for the record building of higher density projects.</p>
<p>This dynamic has helped to address an inherent undersupply of capital city housing, especially in a number of inner suburban areas where land availability had previously been limited.</p>
<p><strong>Crane your neck...the peak is in</strong></p>
<p>Jonathan Kearns from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in a speech this week that attached dwelling approvals have soared from less than half those of detached dwellings under a decade ago, to almost on par across recent years. </p>
<p>The annual number of attached dwellings approved peaked more than a year ago back in the September quarter of 2016, but with longer build times there can be a risk that completions peak just as the residential market turns down. </p>
<p>If it feels as though Sydney developers are still building new townhouses and apartments like the clappers, then this is well borne out by the statistics. </p>
<p>Indeed, New South Wales is propping up the national figures, although even here the peak is probably imminent.</p>
<p>In Victoria, attached building activity levels have been fairly flat now for about one and a half years, while in both Queensland and Western Australia activity has been falling quite significantly throughout 2017. </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e6pzF7oRvbY/WhrQTP7q2hI/AAAAAAAAnMU/tggG6bw6xBE9TpFoChCeTRyo9ckb5XadgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="402" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1319"></p>
<p>The scale on this chart matches that for detached housing, and shows how Sydney has shifted markedly towards higher density living over the past two decades (while Melbourne has simply seen lots of dwellings built of all types, both in the inner city and on the urban fringe). </p>
<p><strong>Shift in composition</strong></p>
<p>Brisbane's dwelling stock historically comprised only a very small share of apartments, but the total stock of attached dwellings has now lifted by more than one-third since 2015, which is remarkable, with completions set to peak this year.</p>
<p>Perth has also seen a strong uplift from a comparatively small stock of existing units.</p>
<p>Despite this, the RBA speech noted that apartments in Perth and Brisbane have witnessed only small median price falls in recent years.</p>
<p>To date there have not been widespread reports of valuations at settlement being lower than off the plan purchase prices, nor has there been a marked increase in settlement failures or arrears.</p>
<p>The RBA also noted that purchases by foreign buyers accounted for just 10-15% of new construction (and about a quarter of new apartments), which intuitively feels low, although the share is higher in Sydney and Melbourne. Of these offshore buyers, about ¾ hailed from China.</p>
<p>Although residential building is now turning down, to date the downturn has been only moderate.</p>
<p>Moreover, there is also now a strong pipeline of infrastructure projects, especially in New South Wales, which might help to explain why the reported monthly unemployment rate of only 3.9% for Greater Sydney has not been lower since 2005. </p>
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Crane watch reaches its peak: Pete Wargent

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<div>Well, it's certainly been a thrilling 12 months for Bitcoin price speculation, with the US dollar price surging an interstellar +1,065 per cent higher, although by the time I've finished writing this post the gains will probably be even greater (click to enlarge the chart)! </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>There were record highs today in other cryptocurrency markets, including Ethereum, and, for all I know, probably a raft of others.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Will the penny drop?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not worth me wasting time even pretending to have any meaningful or unique insights into cryptocurrencies as an asset class.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From a market psychology perspective, however, one assumes that many - if not most - of today's buyers haven't been around long enough to remember the dotcom bubble of 17 years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The worry with charts like the one above is that although new and existing participants become excited by the prospect of immediate gains, loss aversion - the tendency for people to be far more sensitive to losses than gains - can make the trip down very hairy, and sometimes catastrophic.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, it's perfectly possible that Bitcoin is here to stay.<br><br>However, it pays to exercise caution when new and growing industries can have a nasty habit of chewing up and spitting out the brand names and entities that were once market leaders. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the shorthand parlance of internet chat forums: GLTAH!</div>
<div> </div>
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Bitcoin up over 1,000 percent in the last 12 months

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<p>APRA announced at the end of March that lenders should limit new interest-only residential borrowing to 30% of new loans. </p>
<p>The impact of their announcement was "notable and immediate", with the share of new lending declining to just 23% by the September 2017 quarter.</p>
<p>Based on preliminary figures, a similar result is expected by APRA in the December quarter. </p>
<p><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tfDFORVRndk/WhPs6R-5H3I/AAAAAAAAnG4/0DunnXF1BvUhs5S9fQK0JQeQWC8LJGq1QCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1373"></p>
<p>Many borrowers have also been encouraged to switch to principal and interest repayment too, resulting in interest-only loan balances outstanding plummeting by 7% in the past six months.<br><br> Lenders are also growing their investment loans books well below APRA's arbitrary cap.<br><br> It remains to be seen whether they begin to start pushing housing lending harder again in 2018.<br><br> My guess is that they will.  </p>
<p><strong>Stress in the west</strong></p>
<p>Non-performing housing loans remain relatively low at ~0.75%, if a little higher than APRA would ideally like to see. </p>
<p>The steady increase since 2014 was driven by weakness in the Western Australian economy.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jFnuh4m5PsI/WhPs6eZg7nI/AAAAAAAAnG8/qRE_2Ru3ntQDWzutUEUHzdJka6W6G7v3wCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="398" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1338"></p>
<p>Next on APRA's hit list will be a review of loans with a low "net income surplus" and tighter scrutiny of estimated household living expenses. </p>
<p>APRA also aims to tackle a blind spot whereby lenders are not always clear about other debt held by prospective borrowers. </p>
<p>More detailed analysis for institutional investors can be found in our monthly subscription reports.</p>
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The switch away from interest only loans: Pete Wargent 

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<div>Wages grew by just +0.48 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, to be +2.01 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Superficially this looks like a bit of an improvement, and at least it can be said that wages are growing a bit ahead of the rate of inflation. Just. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IYxYl65xkt4/WgveMX_lgEI/AAAAAAAAnA4/-A3i5dGy9uMkZQ5W1_XbzOkw7fXPcJU3gCEwYBhgL/s640/W4.jpg" width="640" height="398" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1336"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And including bonuses the annual increase was a slightly more upbeat +0.7 per cent for the quarter, and +2.2 per cent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the result this quarter was pumped up by the minimum wage increase, and you can see in the chart below that a number of industries (such as accommodation &amp; food) how this inflated the quarterly numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year the industries with the most robust wage price growth included healthcare &amp; social assistance (+2.7 per cent), arts &amp; recreation services (+2.7 per cent), and education &amp; training (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand wages growth in the mining sector (+1.2 per cent) remains very low, as it does in professional, scientific, &amp; tech services (+1.5 per cent). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qz-oEw4ScZk/WgveKUMf7-I/AAAAAAAAnBA/i1VE8nK3RLUV97PLMfKJ4ALyFwYD8NJjACEwYBhgL/s640/Q5.jpg" width="640" height="398" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1335"></div>
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<div>Annual wage price growth in the private sector remains super-low at just +1.86 per cent, with wage price growth in the public sector some way higher at +2.37 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The public sector index has outpaced the private sector since the peak of the resources construction boom. </div>
<div> </div>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Resources states slow</span></strong></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>At the state level Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania each recorded wages growth of +2.2 per cent, while New South Wales (+2.1 per cent) also recorded reasonable growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there were considerably weaker results in Western Australia (+1.3 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+1.4 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>Western Australia recorded the fastest pace of wages growth through the mining boom, but is now coming back to the pack. </div>
<p> </p>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Overall, while it's positive to note annual wages growth moving a bit higher and ahead of the rate inflation, in reality this was a very soft result which missed expectations, having been puffed up by the minimum wage increase.<br><br>Not much in the way of pre-Xmas cheer to be found here! </div>
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