<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

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<p>A result that will surprise a few observers, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported unaudited cash earnings of around $2.65 billion for the quarter, up by +6% on improved margins. </p>
<p>There were seasonal declines in personal loans and credit card arrears.</p>
<p>An interesting point of note was that 90-plus day home loan arrears were tracking at 0.59%, marginally lower from the preceding quarter. </p>
<p>CBA noted that 90-plus day home loan arrears have declined slightly over the past few years to 0.48% when the state of Western Australia is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cfk8FlVcMbY/WgNFN4xiRpI/AAAAAAAAm7A/fnLLJO2PFkcnuw_PLTaZYnimSeBQ2fzJgCLcBGAs/s640/CBA.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1012"></p>
<p> </p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Home loan arrears tracking lower at CommBank: Pete Wargent

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<p>How much is Australia's land worth?</p>
<p>The answer is about $5.8 trillion, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for the 2017 financial year.<br><br> That's well over three times the level of Australia's GDP of around $1.7 trillion. </p>
<p>And, at just under $4.8 trillion, about 83% of that dollar value related to land zoned for residential use (up from just 63% in 1989, when the data series commences). </p>
<p>Of course, the ABS figures are quite rightly presented in current prices, and do not attempt to account for the twin impacts of inflation and Australia's significant population growth.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the figures do show why individual or 'Mum and Dad' investors are drawn towards residential property over commercial investments.<br><br> Since the population is growing and everyone needs somewhere to live, there is more competition for residential land - especially in the big capital cities - and therefore values have risen over the long term. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QH9E-VQgAo/WfLhvwfBnyI/AAAAAAAAmxI/eC1q7mb78y0iivUZ83qiXmDg1yj_rzIZQCEwYBhgL/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QH9E-VQgAo/WfLhvwfBnyI/AAAAAAAAmxI/eC1q7mb78y0iivUZ83qiXmDg1yj_rzIZQCEwYBhgL/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1353"></a></p>
<p>At the state level, the strong five-year uplift in residential land values has mainly been driven by New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p>Again, these are also the states generating the bulk of economic activity and population growth, so that's to be expected to some extent.</p>
<p>But even accounting for population growth, the uplift in nominal land values was once again huge during the 2017 financial year, with total residential land values rising by about 16% in each of the most populous states. </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-C68DjaHVkhk/WfLhwJAaEYI/AAAAAAAAmxM/RF8bXaqae-M_ITh3mZ0Sf5rE4rygnwX5wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-C68DjaHVkhk/WfLhwJAaEYI/AAAAAAAAmxM/RF8bXaqae-M_ITh3mZ0Sf5rE4rygnwX5wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1395"></a></p>
<p>As you can see in the above chart, the value of land zoned for housing has all but increased by a lazy couple of trillion dollars through this cycle to date.</p>
<p>In Victoria the total value of residential land sits at about $1.3 trillion, and in New South Wales the figure is now approaching $2 trillion. </p>
<p>The total value of residential land in both states has comfortably more than doubled since 2009. </p>
<p>On the other hand, one jurisdiction has seen the total value of its residential land in decline since the 2014 financial year as the resources boom years faded: the Northern Territory. </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How much is Australia's land worth? Pete Wargent

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of September 2017, which revealed a softer month for credit growth ex-housing, with total credit growth still tracking at +5.4% over the year. </p>
<p>Annual business credit growth is no more than ticking along (+4.3%), while personal credit remains in negative territory. </p>
<p>Housing credit expanded by +6.6% over the year to September, actually a little faster than the +6.4% pace seen a year earlier, contrary to what you might think.</p>
<p>However, a closer inspection shows that the monthly rate of growth was +0.48% in seasonally adjusted terms, the slowest increase since March 2016, so lending constraints are gradually taking effect.</p>
<p>Total housing credit is now sitting at a tick under $1.7 trillion.</p>
<p>Still powering along for now then, although there has been a concerted push to get borrowers off interest-only products lately. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1400"></a></p>
<p>The purpose of some $59 billion of loans has now been switched from investor to owner-occupier since July 2015.</p>
<p>The RBA data showed that after accounting for loan switching, the growth in investor credit slowed to +7.2%, with further declines almost certain to follow. </p>
<p><strong>Watch your speed</strong></p>
<p>APRA also released its monthly ADI figures, which showed investor credit growth slowing to a crawl - implying that the non-banks have picked up some market share in this sector - with the total value of owner-occupier loans up by +0.48% in the month. </p>
<p>None of the major banks is now even remotely close the 10% 'speed limit' or regulatory threshold for investment lending, with only Westpac of the main players still pushing this sector along. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1368"></a></p>
<p>A number of the second-tier lenders, including Suncorp, Macquarie, and others, have significantly cut back their investment mortgage exposure, perhaps suggesting some regulatory pressure. </p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>While total housing credit is still rising at a solid pace, investor lending is clearly being snipped back sharply.</p>
<p>With population growth now tracking at historically high levels <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">as I looked at here</a>, it remains to be seen whether rents begin to rise sharply in the two largest cities in 2018 (personally, I believe that this is likely, especially in Melbourne, though few appear to agree with me at this juncture). </p>
<p>The major banks are now growing their investment loan books at way below the arbitrary 10% cap, so theoretically at least investor loans could begin to feature more prominently again next year, but this may need the regulator to remove its foot from lenders' throats.</p>
<p><strong>New home sales plunge </strong></p>
<p>In other news, new home sales continued the decline begun in 2015 with another -6.1% drop in September 2017, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="727"></a></p>
<p>The drop was driven by a significant -16.7% drop in multi-unit sales.</p>
<p>New home sales are a leading indicator for building approvals, and following the longest ever upturn in building there now comes the dwelling construction downturn. </p>
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RBA data shows the brakes on lending: Pete Wargent

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<div>Since the introduction of new incentives, the number of dwellings <span style="text-decoration: underline;">financed</span> by first homebuyers bolted to the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/record-high-for-housing-finance" target="_blank">highest level in 92 months</a> in August 2017, so households are now being formed apace, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHBs.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s640/FHBs.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1365"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's much, much more to household formation than just this, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall I showed from the 2016 Census figures that Australia's migration programme has led to a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/demographic-tsunami-will-keep-sydney-melbourne-property-prices-high-20170629-gx1onj" target="_blank">demographic tsunami</a>, being millions of 25 to 32 year-olds in Australia, about to swamp the housing markets, heavily focused on Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Separate figures reporting the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">characteristics of recent migrants</a> showed that it's overwhelmingly now the capital cities that are about to be swamped, because new migrants flock to the capital cities, and end up staying there. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many first-timers are electing to rent where they live, and are instead buying investment properties as their first step onto the ladder, so the real number of first-time buyers is tracking at close to the long run average. Plus there's the trend towards co-ownership, as <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/real-estate/victoria/cobuying-a-solution-to-the-biggest-challenge-facing-buyers/news-story/e4fe88a599069d749765595101f2ba80" target="_blank">recently reported</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The 'bank of Mum &amp; Dad'</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps as significantly, there are the parents buying homes for their kids, which is new household formation not reported in the first homebuyer finance numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We are now seeing this going on practically all the time at auctions in Sydney and Brisbane - to be blunt, it pushes up prices - and evidently it's a big thing down in Melbourne and Geelong too. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s400/Cate1.jpg" width="353" height="400" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="612"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s400/Cate.jpg" width="400" height="73" data-original-height="101" data-original-width="547"></a></div>
<div>
<br>Cate Bakos of <a href="https://www.catebakos.com.au/" target="_blank">Cate Bakos Property</a> in Melbourne notes that it's not only the first homebuyer sector that's being impacted by inherited money:<br><br><em>"Parents are impacting competition levels significantly. Firstly in the first homebuyer concession range - which is already screaming along with heightened borrowing capacity - and secondly the upgrader stakes. We are seeing and hearing of parents paying it forward with inheritance money."</em><br><br>Affordability has been a drag on household formation to some extent since the financial crisis.<br><br>However, this is projected to be more than offset by an ageing population - empty-nesters and downsizers - more divorces, more separations, widowhood, and a nascent yet growing trend towards <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3236.0Media%20Release12011%20to%202036?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3236.0&amp;issue=2011%20to%202036&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">lone-person households</a> living in apartments. And that's before we mention all the empty dwellings.<br><br>Over the longer term, the ABS forecasts that the number of households will increase by well over 50 per cent to 12.7 million over the 25 years to 2036.</div>
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First home buyer numbers bolt

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.5 per cent over the year to August 2017, with business credit recording a solid +0.5 per cent expansion in the month.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week APRA had reported that a number of banks saw the total value of their loan books decline in August, most notably the Commonwealth Bank, following a tumultuous stretch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, all of the major banks now have investment loan books growing at a rate well below the 10 per cent speed limit imposed by the regulator, implying headroom to lend more to investors going forward. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1366"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, with a significant number of banks showing declines in their loan books during the month, this suggests that macroprudential measures are beginning to slow down lending from quite a few banks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, perhaps the regulator is breathing down the necks of lenders just a bit more heavily than before. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1408"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>More loans being switched to principal and interest will help to see loan book balances ease too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In spite of this, the RBA reported housing credit growing by +6.6 per cent over the year, actually a notched faster than a year previously. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit is now approaching $1.7 trillion, with a substantial volume of loans being switched from investment to owner-occupier (no less than $58 billion since July 2015). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1444"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The only reasonable conclusion appears to be that non-bank lenders are stepping in to pick up the slack, and total housing debt continues to power on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The only thing that will definitely stop the housing credit juggernaut, it seems, is rising interest rates, and these seem to be a way off yet. </div>
<p> </p>
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Housing credit shift to non-banks?

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<div>When I first came to Sydney in the 1990s, there was a lot of talk about housing being expensive, although in truth it was still possible buy decent blocks of land reasonably close to the city, at least in the less fashionable inner western suburbs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I can also remember years ago reading a blog by Property Update contributor Stuart Wemyss, which argued that although some parts of Melbourne were evidently expensive, most of the talk about oversupply and a property bubble was just short term noise. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wemyss highlighted a very similar point: you could still find decent blocks of dirt close to the city, for a price that wasn't absurd - demonstrably not the case in many so-termed 'global cities', which Melbourne aspires to become - and over the years he was proven right.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I feel a bit the same about Brisbane today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure, there are some suburbs that are expensive, as you would expect with the Greater Brisbane population approaching 2.5 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But you can still find blocks of land reasonably close to the city, within a 6-8km radius of the CBD, for a relatively good price. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, there will be ups and downs, but over the next couple of cycles the right property types and locations will likely perform very well, in my opinion, especially in good school zones. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although some areas have been overbuilt with high rise apartments, south-east Queensland will offer some of the best opportunities over the decades ahead, as it expands as a population hub and becomes more popular with Asian migrants. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The forthcoming Commonwealth Games will be a plus too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Slump, and rebound</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has always attracted migrants from interstate, and as the resources mega-projects kicked off through the early years of the mining boom, the Sunshine State was pulling in tens of thousands of internal migrants per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These were unbridled boom years both for Queensland's economy and Brisbane housing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From 2010, demand for Brisbane housing slumped, broadly in tune with internal population flows.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately, with apartment projects often taking an age from approval to completion, this was also a time at which many interstate investors settled on new units, which are now under water, figuratively speaking (not only in Brisbane, but in other parts of Queensland too). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0I2CmhdgPk/Wc9CDDm3V6I/AAAAAAAAmYM/Pk3tVR5P5YMB9zNT-8oVgi4R06aVWBMSQCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0I2CmhdgPk/Wc9CDDm3V6I/AAAAAAAAmYM/Pk3tVR5P5YMB9zNT-8oVgi4R06aVWBMSQCLcBGAs/s640/QLD2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1271"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>More literally speaking, Brisbane experienced severe floods in 2010-11, which arguably exacerbated a downturn that was already in the post as LNG projects approached completion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By March this year, estimated interstate migration to Queensland had risen to its highest level since 2009.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So, what's going on? It's partly a function of the housing market cycle, with Sydney now expensive, and congested.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another boon for Queensland is that took its capex downturn medicine earlier than Western Australia, so although it was painful, the drag has now ended, with roads and other infrastructure projects having kicked off.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-14swRzkG8Sg/Wc9rrn08RXI/AAAAAAAAmYk/zodXh_b89Ns1Mm_M21U6coYIVx8ybiRigCLcBGAs/s1600/ENG.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-14swRzkG8Sg/Wc9rrn08RXI/AAAAAAAAmYk/zodXh_b89Ns1Mm_M21U6coYIVx8ybiRigCLcBGAs/s640/ENG.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1386"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, after a terrible lull, Queensland employment is suddenly now picking up, rising by an <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/jobs-explosion-shatters-forecasts" target="_blank">outsized +95,400 over the year to August 2017</a>.<br><br>And population growth is in turn ramping up just as dwelling starts now collapse, helping to rebalance the ratio of demand to supply.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NZ6sGlCUijI/Wc-BAtgAALI/AAAAAAAAmY4/jAB2Gm1ySpkxztQzoMQnS8YgwGDJsY9wgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NZ6sGlCUijI/Wc-BAtgAALI/AAAAAAAAmY4/jAB2Gm1ySpkxztQzoMQnS8YgwGDJsY9wgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1362"></a></div>
</div>
<div>You didn't really need ABS estimates to tell you about the migratory shifts, since every second person in inner city Brisbane seems to have just relocated from Sydney, or from Perth in many cases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Sydney market now slowing, there will no doubt be a great surge in interest in Brisbane property - that's just the way the cycle goes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">White shoes alert</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A few caveats, however, if you're thinking of buying a Brisbane property investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of all the capital cities, Brisbane plausibly has the patchiest housing market - some locations and dwelling types are experiencing strong price growth, while others are struggling big time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Be wary about locations prone to flooding, and definitely watch out for white ants (termites)! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oh, and real estate laws are different up north, so you need to understand how to make offers subject to certain conditions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Personally, I would buy established not new property, for way too many heads have been burned buying new of off the plan up north. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, there is a long history of southern buyers getting brazenly fleeced on Queensland property deals by slick sales techniques - the famed white shoe brigade - so make sure you don't become yet another casualty. </div>
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Southerners need to avoid being fleeced by Queensland's famed white shoe brigade

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<p><strong>Expert Observer</strong></p>
<p>It was announced in the 2017 Budget speech that the regulator APRA will explicitly be allowed to differentiate loan controls by location.</p>
<p>This is another move signalling that politicians and regulators don't trust banks to lend responsibly, while simultaneously inferring that they know better than the market what 'should' be happening in terms of property markets and lending activity (which may be a positive thing or a very worrying development depending on your outlook!).</p>
<p>Practically speaking this means that APRA might look to restrict the flow of credit into 'hot' housing markets - basically, Sydney - while presumably steering clear of intervention in markets where prices and rents are in a multi-year freefall (such as Darwin, Gladstone, or indeed any number of of Australia's resources regions).</p>
<p>This all sounds jolly good on paper, until you think about all of the potential ramifications of regulatory intervention. There isn't the space here to go into detail on this point, but it's a concern!</p>
<p><strong>Lending finance rebounds</strong></p>
<p>The March 2017 Lending Finance figures, which strangely never seem to get any media coverage, saw total lending jump tidily from $67.6 billion to $72.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2f6hTXVdfZA/WR4AGIWCN3I/AAAAAAAAj6o/BW7FQ9Afn98N7wzbfoN5JlhkrJZtkOgQgCLcB/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_lendingfinace.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to homebuyers was relatively steady in the lead-up to APRA's latest round of macroprudential curbs, while nationally there was a moderate increase in lending to property investors (classified below under commercial lending).</p>
<p>It's generally reported that lending for real estate is unproductive and risky, while lending to business is productive and a good thing. This may be true to an extent, though there are many sub-trends to take into account.</p>
<p>Overall commercial lending saw a neat increase in the month of March to be solidly higher year-on-year, even if the recent trend series is flat.</p>
<p>Renovations rose to a 6.5 year high in March 2017, as Aussies apparently shunned stamp duties and trading up for staying put and renovating instead, though looking at the numbers in their historical context the 'renovation boom' story seems a bit less enticing.</p>
<p>Splitting out commercial finance fixed loans by industry shows how lending into the mining sector has all but evaporated, declining by a further 46 per cent over the year to March. Commercial lending to the mining industry has fallen to about a quarter of the level seen at the peak as the resources construction cliff now approaches its nadir.</p>
<p>Despite this massive contraction, annual lending for construction continues to expand at a sprightly double digit pace, a trend which belies Australia's over-reliance on the residential building sector.</p>
<p><strong>Investor loans diverge</strong></p>
<p>Carving up loans to property investors by state, it's clear that Sydney investors don't believe in the apartment oversupply and have been doubling down on harbour city real estate with a vengeance.</p>
<p>Lending for investment in New South Wales surged to $6.2 billion in March - 39 per cent higher than for the same month last year - signalling a huge rebound since APRA's first round of macroprudential restrictions.</p>
<p>There was also something of an increase in investor lending in Victoria which will warrant careful observation.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FvHnxzfoySg/WR4AGTk0z8I/AAAAAAAAj6s/fAgDQzINy_seIhISKqHG962BVPuXvel_ACLcB/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_investorloansbystate.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The massive divergence in fortunes across the states in the prevailing low interest rate environment is ultimately what led to APRA's new powers to target lending in specific neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>While Sydney property has been burning up, property investor loan volumes in the Northern Territory have collapsed to their lowest level in 11 years as prices and rents in Darwin continue to fall.</p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it was a stronger month for lending finance in aggregate, with a sizeable lift in commercial finance.</p>
<p>The housing market figures pre-date APRA's announcement at the end of the month of March that new restraints would be applied to interest-only lending.</p>
<p>What the figures do show is the massive divergence in investor sentiment between the resources states and Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.</p>
<p>If this continues APRA may be called upon to use its new powers sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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APRA may deploy its 'special powers': Pete Wargent

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<p>Stamp duty isn't a much admired tax.</p>
<p>Except by governments that is!</p>
<p>The arguments against stamp and transfer duties include that they discourage labour force mobility, while making life challenging for first home buyers.</p>
<p>It's not hard to see why governments like them, though.</p>
<p>Over the year to February 2017 the NSW Office of State Revenue (OSR) alone recorded astronomical receipts of $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Stamp duty is now accounting for more than a quarter of state government revenue in NSW.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>I noted last year how the NSW government has smashed its budget targets to leave itself with net debt of less than zero for the first time, largely thanks to this remarkable windfall.</p>
<p>A proposed alternative would be to put an annual tax on the unimproved value of residential land, including for the family home (there is already a land tax threshold in place, but it doesn't capture all homeowners due to an exemption on the family home).</p>
<p>The main challenge is that with residential land values in New South Wales of $1,657 billion, the annual tax would have to be quite significant to raise the equivalent $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Recent proposals have included an annual land tax of 0.75 per cent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There are now just over 3 million dwellings in New South Wales, so another way to look at it is that households and owners of other residential dwellings may have to stump up on average $3,100 per annum to raise the equivalent amount of tax.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>A proposed land value tax would typically deliver comparatively little pain for those living in an apartment, since the land value content of such dwellings is relatively low.</p>
<p>On the other hand I think of the retirees on my street who now have very valuable land under their homes, for which the annual land tax bill would be impossible for them to pay.</p>
<p>So the argument goes, by taxing people on their homes they will be 'incentivised' to move somewhere smaller and more appropriate for their needs.</p>
<p>It could certainly happen over time, though it would be a brave move politically.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Stamp duty bonanza: Pete Wargent 

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<p>Total employment increased by 80,000 over the three months to February 2017, according to the Detailed Labour Force Figures reported yesterday by the ABS. </p>
<p>Over the year to February, employment was up by 190,400, the strongest pace of growth in a year and well above the long run average.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QUwS2QhUPQ4/WNRr-anruCI/AAAAAAAAirc/gfEtUaZ1JzA5Xkad4Idon89cnZVyHmnEwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QUwS2QhUPQ4/WNRr-anruCI/AAAAAAAAirc/gfEtUaZ1JzA5Xkad4Idon89cnZVyHmnEwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT2.jpg"></p>
<p>Very good on paper!<br><br> Rather too good, in fact, in the event.<br><br> To cut a long story short, upon checking with the ABS, it seems that the figures were just not right.</p>
<p>A slight glitch in the matrix, one might say.<br><br> The quarterly gains were driven by a large 45,500 increase in construction employment.</p>
<p>Mining employment is also now seen to be rising again. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the rebound in manufacturing employment seems to have popped, and employment in the retail trade sector has apparently been crushed over the past year, down by a thumping 62,700. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-if5cS8z3mnM/WNRr-r1rp9I/AAAAAAAAirg/COaIwu7Lnwgx2dlq8CoYoLJvuhp6sNZUgCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-if5cS8z3mnM/WNRr-r1rp9I/AAAAAAAAirg/COaIwu7Lnwgx2dlq8CoYoLJvuhp6sNZUgCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT3.jpg"></p>
<p>A bit of a mixed bag, and one which suggests to me that the economy has become too heavily reliant upon the residential building boom.<br><br> Construction employment has now soared to 1,114,800 from a total workforce of about 12 million, which seems incredibly high - well above historic norms - and probably peaky. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-inQTh61xTaI/WNRr-8CT3kI/AAAAAAAAirk/bd6heGgtC6k7FCAH1-W_-x4wtb-QNqJiwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-inQTh61xTaI/WNRr-8CT3kI/AAAAAAAAirk/bd6heGgtC6k7FCAH1-W_-x4wtb-QNqJiwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT.jpg"></p>
<p>Remarkably the rebound in total mining employment to 241,700 means that employment in the industry is now only 36,700 below the 2012 peak. </p>
<p>Where are the jobs? <span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Perhaps I'll look at the regional jobs growth another time.</span></p>
<p>Just to note here for now that Sydney has consistently seen the lowest unemployment rate of the major capital cities, and Adelaide the highest. </p>
<p>Hobart takes out the most improved award. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Brisbane is now seeing population growth picking up as expected, which over time will help to tackle the inner city apartment glut, though this is also putting pressure on detached house prices in sought after school zones. </p>
<p>But to date Greater Brisbane doesn't appear to be creating the jobs to keep its unemployment rate down.</p>
<p>And it needs to.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Construction driving employment increases: Pete Wargent

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<div>Within the Consumer Price Index figures, the ABS produces some very useful quality-adjusted figures on rental price inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series shows how rents can rise very fast when investors are spooked out of the market, such as between 1985 and 1987 (changes to tax legislation) and 2008 (global financial crisis).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When investor activity is high, on the other hand, the growth in rents is likely to be weaker, and this is also the case when low interest rates make buying a home comparatively more attractive than renting. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, nationally annual rental price growth is at its lowest level in more than 22 years, at 0.6 per cent.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s1600/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a><br><br>In Perth, annual rental growth has turned negative to the tune of -7.2 per cent.<br><br></p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="352"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Darwin is by some margin the weakest rental market, with rents declining by -8.2 per cent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other side of the ledger, Hobart is the tightest capital city rental market, with quality-adjusted rents increasing by 3.5 per cent in 2016. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A look at the long-run figures shows that despite the supply response real rents in both Sydney and Melbourne continued to rise to all-time highs. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<p> In real terms, at the city level Brisbane rents are certain to move lower in 2017 due to the inner city apartments overbuild. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</p>
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Pete Wargent

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