<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Pete Wargent

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<p>A result that will surprise a few observers, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported unaudited cash earnings of around $2.65 billion for the quarter, up by +6% on improved margins. </p>
<p>There were seasonal declines in personal loans and credit card arrears.</p>
<p>An interesting point of note was that 90-plus day home loan arrears were tracking at 0.59%, marginally lower from the preceding quarter. </p>
<p>CBA noted that 90-plus day home loan arrears have declined slightly over the past few years to 0.48% when the state of Western Australia is excluded.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cfk8FlVcMbY/WgNFN4xiRpI/AAAAAAAAm7A/fnLLJO2PFkcnuw_PLTaZYnimSeBQ2fzJgCLcBGAs/s640/CBA.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1012"></p>
<p> </p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Home loan arrears tracking lower at CommBank: Pete Wargent

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<p>How much is Australia's land worth?</p>
<p>The answer is about $5.8 trillion, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for the 2017 financial year.<br><br> That's well over three times the level of Australia's GDP of around $1.7 trillion. </p>
<p>And, at just under $4.8 trillion, about 83% of that dollar value related to land zoned for residential use (up from just 63% in 1989, when the data series commences). </p>
<p>Of course, the ABS figures are quite rightly presented in current prices, and do not attempt to account for the twin impacts of inflation and Australia's significant population growth.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the figures do show why individual or 'Mum and Dad' investors are drawn towards residential property over commercial investments.<br><br> Since the population is growing and everyone needs somewhere to live, there is more competition for residential land - especially in the big capital cities - and therefore values have risen over the long term. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QH9E-VQgAo/WfLhvwfBnyI/AAAAAAAAmxI/eC1q7mb78y0iivUZ83qiXmDg1yj_rzIZQCEwYBhgL/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9QH9E-VQgAo/WfLhvwfBnyI/AAAAAAAAmxI/eC1q7mb78y0iivUZ83qiXmDg1yj_rzIZQCEwYBhgL/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1353"></a></p>
<p>At the state level, the strong five-year uplift in residential land values has mainly been driven by New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p>Again, these are also the states generating the bulk of economic activity and population growth, so that's to be expected to some extent.</p>
<p>But even accounting for population growth, the uplift in nominal land values was once again huge during the 2017 financial year, with total residential land values rising by about 16% in each of the most populous states. </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-C68DjaHVkhk/WfLhwJAaEYI/AAAAAAAAmxM/RF8bXaqae-M_ITh3mZ0Sf5rE4rygnwX5wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-C68DjaHVkhk/WfLhwJAaEYI/AAAAAAAAmxM/RF8bXaqae-M_ITh3mZ0Sf5rE4rygnwX5wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1395"></a></p>
<p>As you can see in the above chart, the value of land zoned for housing has all but increased by a lazy couple of trillion dollars through this cycle to date.</p>
<p>In Victoria the total value of residential land sits at about $1.3 trillion, and in New South Wales the figure is now approaching $2 trillion. </p>
<p>The total value of residential land in both states has comfortably more than doubled since 2009. </p>
<p>On the other hand, one jurisdiction has seen the total value of its residential land in decline since the 2014 financial year as the resources boom years faded: the Northern Territory. </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How much is Australia's land worth? Pete Wargent

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of September 2017, which revealed a softer month for credit growth ex-housing, with total credit growth still tracking at +5.4% over the year. </p>
<p>Annual business credit growth is no more than ticking along (+4.3%), while personal credit remains in negative territory. </p>
<p>Housing credit expanded by +6.6% over the year to September, actually a little faster than the +6.4% pace seen a year earlier, contrary to what you might think.</p>
<p>However, a closer inspection shows that the monthly rate of growth was +0.48% in seasonally adjusted terms, the slowest increase since March 2016, so lending constraints are gradually taking effect.</p>
<p>Total housing credit is now sitting at a tick under $1.7 trillion.</p>
<p>Still powering along for now then, although there has been a concerted push to get borrowers off interest-only products lately. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1400"></a></p>
<p>The purpose of some $59 billion of loans has now been switched from investor to owner-occupier since July 2015.</p>
<p>The RBA data showed that after accounting for loan switching, the growth in investor credit slowed to +7.2%, with further declines almost certain to follow. </p>
<p><strong>Watch your speed</strong></p>
<p>APRA also released its monthly ADI figures, which showed investor credit growth slowing to a crawl - implying that the non-banks have picked up some market share in this sector - with the total value of owner-occupier loans up by +0.48% in the month. </p>
<p>None of the major banks is now even remotely close the 10% 'speed limit' or regulatory threshold for investment lending, with only Westpac of the main players still pushing this sector along. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1368"></a></p>
<p>A number of the second-tier lenders, including Suncorp, Macquarie, and others, have significantly cut back their investment mortgage exposure, perhaps suggesting some regulatory pressure. </p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>While total housing credit is still rising at a solid pace, investor lending is clearly being snipped back sharply.</p>
<p>With population growth now tracking at historically high levels <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">as I looked at here</a>, it remains to be seen whether rents begin to rise sharply in the two largest cities in 2018 (personally, I believe that this is likely, especially in Melbourne, though few appear to agree with me at this juncture). </p>
<p>The major banks are now growing their investment loan books at way below the arbitrary 10% cap, so theoretically at least investor loans could begin to feature more prominently again next year, but this may need the regulator to remove its foot from lenders' throats.</p>
<p><strong>New home sales plunge </strong></p>
<p>In other news, new home sales continued the decline begun in 2015 with another -6.1% drop in September 2017, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="727"></a></p>
<p>The drop was driven by a significant -16.7% drop in multi-unit sales.</p>
<p>New home sales are a leading indicator for building approvals, and following the longest ever upturn in building there now comes the dwelling construction downturn. </p>
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RBA data shows the brakes on lending: Pete Wargent

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<div>Since the introduction of new incentives, the number of dwellings <span style="text-decoration: underline;">financed</span> by first homebuyers bolted to the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/record-high-for-housing-finance" target="_blank">highest level in 92 months</a> in August 2017, so households are now being formed apace, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHBs.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_VSHlNMkc4A/WeeUsZWsR8I/AAAAAAAAmrk/97SRzapVQb4Xbkaw1Z_a4o5h3Edyuz0MQCEwYBhgL/s640/FHBs.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1365"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's much, much more to household formation than just this, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall I showed from the 2016 Census figures that Australia's migration programme has led to a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/demographic-tsunami-will-keep-sydney-melbourne-property-prices-high-20170629-gx1onj" target="_blank">demographic tsunami</a>, being millions of 25 to 32 year-olds in Australia, about to swamp the housing markets, heavily focused on Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Separate figures reporting the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">characteristics of recent migrants</a> showed that it's overwhelmingly now the capital cities that are about to be swamped, because new migrants flock to the capital cities, and end up staying there. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many first-timers are electing to rent where they live, and are instead buying investment properties as their first step onto the ladder, so the real number of first-time buyers is tracking at close to the long run average. Plus there's the trend towards co-ownership, as <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/real-estate/victoria/cobuying-a-solution-to-the-biggest-challenge-facing-buyers/news-story/e4fe88a599069d749765595101f2ba80" target="_blank">recently reported</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The 'bank of Mum &amp; Dad'</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps as significantly, there are the parents buying homes for their kids, which is new household formation not reported in the first homebuyer finance numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We are now seeing this going on practically all the time at auctions in Sydney and Brisbane - to be blunt, it pushes up prices - and evidently it's a big thing down in Melbourne and Geelong too. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--TU05mCnDD8/WeeUQaGjrcI/AAAAAAAAmrg/5lvbhp9aaCUdEMJKZRwPkCDh-O1Ou3F6wCLcBGAs/s400/Cate1.jpg" width="353" height="400" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="612"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s1600/Cate.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-67or6Unu5Rk/WeeUPngj1KI/AAAAAAAAmrc/51F21V7HrkYCwGL41xWVtdI_zOoDaodZwCLcBGAs/s400/Cate.jpg" width="400" height="73" data-original-height="101" data-original-width="547"></a></div>
<div>
<br>Cate Bakos of <a href="https://www.catebakos.com.au/" target="_blank">Cate Bakos Property</a> in Melbourne notes that it's not only the first homebuyer sector that's being impacted by inherited money:<br><br><em>"Parents are impacting competition levels significantly. Firstly in the first homebuyer concession range - which is already screaming along with heightened borrowing capacity - and secondly the upgrader stakes. We are seeing and hearing of parents paying it forward with inheritance money."</em><br><br>Affordability has been a drag on household formation to some extent since the financial crisis.<br><br>However, this is projected to be more than offset by an ageing population - empty-nesters and downsizers - more divorces, more separations, widowhood, and a nascent yet growing trend towards <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3236.0Media%20Release12011%20to%202036?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3236.0&amp;issue=2011%20to%202036&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">lone-person households</a> living in apartments. And that's before we mention all the empty dwellings.<br><br>Over the longer term, the ABS forecasts that the number of households will increase by well over 50 per cent to 12.7 million over the 25 years to 2036.</div>
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First home buyer numbers bolt

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.5 per cent over the year to August 2017, with business credit recording a solid +0.5 per cent expansion in the month.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week APRA had reported that a number of banks saw the total value of their loan books decline in August, most notably the Commonwealth Bank, following a tumultuous stretch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, all of the major banks now have investment loan books growing at a rate well below the 10 per cent speed limit imposed by the regulator, implying headroom to lend more to investors going forward. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1366"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, with a significant number of banks showing declines in their loan books during the month, this suggests that macroprudential measures are beginning to slow down lending from quite a few banks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, perhaps the regulator is breathing down the necks of lenders just a bit more heavily than before. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1408"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>More loans being switched to principal and interest will help to see loan book balances ease too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In spite of this, the RBA reported housing credit growing by +6.6 per cent over the year, actually a notched faster than a year previously. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit is now approaching $1.7 trillion, with a substantial volume of loans being switched from investment to owner-occupier (no less than $58 billion since July 2015). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1444"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The only reasonable conclusion appears to be that non-bank lenders are stepping in to pick up the slack, and total housing debt continues to power on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The only thing that will definitely stop the housing credit juggernaut, it seems, is rising interest rates, and these seem to be a way off yet. </div>
<p> </p>
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Housing credit shift to non-banks?

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<div>When I first came to Sydney in the 1990s, there was a lot of talk about housing being expensive, although in truth it was still possible buy decent blocks of land reasonably close to the city, at least in the less fashionable inner western suburbs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I can also remember years ago reading a blog by Property Update contributor Stuart Wemyss, which argued that although some parts of Melbourne were evidently expensive, most of the talk about oversupply and a property bubble was just short term noise. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wemyss highlighted a very similar point: you could still find decent blocks of dirt close to the city, for a price that wasn't absurd - demonstrably not the case in many so-termed 'global cities', which Melbourne aspires to become - and over the years he was proven right.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I feel a bit the same about Brisbane today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure, there are some suburbs that are expensive, as you would expect with the Greater Brisbane population approaching 2.5 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But you can still find blocks of land reasonably close to the city, within a 6-8km radius of the CBD, for a relatively good price. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, there will be ups and downs, but over the next couple of cycles the right property types and locations will likely perform very well, in my opinion, especially in good school zones. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although some areas have been overbuilt with high rise apartments, south-east Queensland will offer some of the best opportunities over the decades ahead, as it expands as a population hub and becomes more popular with Asian migrants. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The forthcoming Commonwealth Games will be a plus too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Slump, and rebound</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has always attracted migrants from interstate, and as the resources mega-projects kicked off through the early years of the mining boom, the Sunshine State was pulling in tens of thousands of internal migrants per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These were unbridled boom years both for Queensland's economy and Brisbane housing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From 2010, demand for Brisbane housing slumped, broadly in tune with internal population flows.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately, with apartment projects often taking an age from approval to completion, this was also a time at which many interstate investors settled on new units, which are now under water, figuratively speaking (not only in Brisbane, but in other parts of Queensland too). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0I2CmhdgPk/Wc9CDDm3V6I/AAAAAAAAmYM/Pk3tVR5P5YMB9zNT-8oVgi4R06aVWBMSQCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0I2CmhdgPk/Wc9CDDm3V6I/AAAAAAAAmYM/Pk3tVR5P5YMB9zNT-8oVgi4R06aVWBMSQCLcBGAs/s640/QLD2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="758" data-original-width="1271"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>More literally speaking, Brisbane experienced severe floods in 2010-11, which arguably exacerbated a downturn that was already in the post as LNG projects approached completion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By March this year, estimated interstate migration to Queensland had risen to its highest level since 2009.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So, what's going on? It's partly a function of the housing market cycle, with Sydney now expensive, and congested.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another boon for Queensland is that took its capex downturn medicine earlier than Western Australia, so although it was painful, the drag has now ended, with roads and other infrastructure projects having kicked off.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-14swRzkG8Sg/Wc9rrn08RXI/AAAAAAAAmYk/zodXh_b89Ns1Mm_M21U6coYIVx8ybiRigCLcBGAs/s1600/ENG.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-14swRzkG8Sg/Wc9rrn08RXI/AAAAAAAAmYk/zodXh_b89Ns1Mm_M21U6coYIVx8ybiRigCLcBGAs/s640/ENG.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1386"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>And, after a terrible lull, Queensland employment is suddenly now picking up, rising by an <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/jobs-explosion-shatters-forecasts" target="_blank">outsized +95,400 over the year to August 2017</a>.<br><br>And population growth is in turn ramping up just as dwelling starts now collapse, helping to rebalance the ratio of demand to supply.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NZ6sGlCUijI/Wc-BAtgAALI/AAAAAAAAmY4/jAB2Gm1ySpkxztQzoMQnS8YgwGDJsY9wgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NZ6sGlCUijI/Wc-BAtgAALI/AAAAAAAAmY4/jAB2Gm1ySpkxztQzoMQnS8YgwGDJsY9wgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1362"></a></div>
</div>
<div>You didn't really need ABS estimates to tell you about the migratory shifts, since every second person in inner city Brisbane seems to have just relocated from Sydney, or from Perth in many cases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Sydney market now slowing, there will no doubt be a great surge in interest in Brisbane property - that's just the way the cycle goes. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">White shoes alert</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A few caveats, however, if you're thinking of buying a Brisbane property investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of all the capital cities, Brisbane plausibly has the patchiest housing market - some locations and dwelling types are experiencing strong price growth, while others are struggling big time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Be wary about locations prone to flooding, and definitely watch out for white ants (termites)! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oh, and real estate laws are different up north, so you need to understand how to make offers subject to certain conditions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Personally, I would buy established not new property, for way too many heads have been burned buying new of off the plan up north. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, there is a long history of southern buyers getting brazenly fleeced on Queensland property deals by slick sales techniques - the famed white shoe brigade - so make sure you don't become yet another casualty. </div>
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Southerners need to avoid being fleeced by Queensland's famed white shoe brigade

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<p><strong>Expert Observer</strong></p>
<p>It was announced in the 2017 Budget speech that the regulator APRA will explicitly be allowed to differentiate loan controls by location.</p>
<p>This is another move signalling that politicians and regulators don't trust banks to lend responsibly, while simultaneously inferring that they know better than the market what 'should' be happening in terms of property markets and lending activity (which may be a positive thing or a very worrying development depending on your outlook!).</p>
<p>Practically speaking this means that APRA might look to restrict the flow of credit into 'hot' housing markets - basically, Sydney - while presumably steering clear of intervention in markets where prices and rents are in a multi-year freefall (such as Darwin, Gladstone, or indeed any number of of Australia's resources regions).</p>
<p>This all sounds jolly good on paper, until you think about all of the potential ramifications of regulatory intervention. There isn't the space here to go into detail on this point, but it's a concern!</p>
<p><strong>Lending finance rebounds</strong></p>
<p>The March 2017 Lending Finance figures, which strangely never seem to get any media coverage, saw total lending jump tidily from $67.6 billion to $72.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2f6hTXVdfZA/WR4AGIWCN3I/AAAAAAAAj6o/BW7FQ9Afn98N7wzbfoN5JlhkrJZtkOgQgCLcB/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_lendingfinace.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to homebuyers was relatively steady in the lead-up to APRA's latest round of macroprudential curbs, while nationally there was a moderate increase in lending to property investors (classified below under commercial lending).</p>
<p>It's generally reported that lending for real estate is unproductive and risky, while lending to business is productive and a good thing. This may be true to an extent, though there are many sub-trends to take into account.</p>
<p>Overall commercial lending saw a neat increase in the month of March to be solidly higher year-on-year, even if the recent trend series is flat.</p>
<p>Renovations rose to a 6.5 year high in March 2017, as Aussies apparently shunned stamp duties and trading up for staying put and renovating instead, though looking at the numbers in their historical context the 'renovation boom' story seems a bit less enticing.</p>
<p>Splitting out commercial finance fixed loans by industry shows how lending into the mining sector has all but evaporated, declining by a further 46 per cent over the year to March. Commercial lending to the mining industry has fallen to about a quarter of the level seen at the peak as the resources construction cliff now approaches its nadir.</p>
<p>Despite this massive contraction, annual lending for construction continues to expand at a sprightly double digit pace, a trend which belies Australia's over-reliance on the residential building sector.</p>
<p><strong>Investor loans diverge</strong></p>
<p>Carving up loans to property investors by state, it's clear that Sydney investors don't believe in the apartment oversupply and have been doubling down on harbour city real estate with a vengeance.</p>
<p>Lending for investment in New South Wales surged to $6.2 billion in March - 39 per cent higher than for the same month last year - signalling a huge rebound since APRA's first round of macroprudential restrictions.</p>
<p>There was also something of an increase in investor lending in Victoria which will warrant careful observation.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FvHnxzfoySg/WR4AGTk0z8I/AAAAAAAAj6s/fAgDQzINy_seIhISKqHG962BVPuXvel_ACLcB/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_investorloansbystate.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The massive divergence in fortunes across the states in the prevailing low interest rate environment is ultimately what led to APRA's new powers to target lending in specific neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>While Sydney property has been burning up, property investor loan volumes in the Northern Territory have collapsed to their lowest level in 11 years as prices and rents in Darwin continue to fall.</p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it was a stronger month for lending finance in aggregate, with a sizeable lift in commercial finance.</p>
<p>The housing market figures pre-date APRA's announcement at the end of the month of March that new restraints would be applied to interest-only lending.</p>
<p>What the figures do show is the massive divergence in investor sentiment between the resources states and Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.</p>
<p>If this continues APRA may be called upon to use its new powers sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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APRA may deploy its 'special powers': Pete Wargent

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<p>Stamp duty isn't a much admired tax.</p>
<p>Except by governments that is!</p>
<p>The arguments against stamp and transfer duties include that they discourage labour force mobility, while making life challenging for first home buyers.</p>
<p>It's not hard to see why governments like them, though.</p>
<p>Over the year to February 2017 the NSW Office of State Revenue (OSR) alone recorded astronomical receipts of $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Stamp duty is now accounting for more than a quarter of state government revenue in NSW.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>I noted last year how the NSW government has smashed its budget targets to leave itself with net debt of less than zero for the first time, largely thanks to this remarkable windfall.</p>
<p>A proposed alternative would be to put an annual tax on the unimproved value of residential land, including for the family home (there is already a land tax threshold in place, but it doesn't capture all homeowners due to an exemption on the family home).</p>
<p>The main challenge is that with residential land values in New South Wales of $1,657 billion, the annual tax would have to be quite significant to raise the equivalent $9.4 billion.</p>
<p>Recent proposals have included an annual land tax of 0.75 per cent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There are now just over 3 million dwellings in New South Wales, so another way to look at it is that households and owners of other residential dwellings may have to stump up on average $3,100 per annum to raise the equivalent amount of tax.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/30/Chart-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>A proposed land value tax would typically deliver comparatively little pain for those living in an apartment, since the land value content of such dwellings is relatively low.</p>
<p>On the other hand I think of the retirees on my street who now have very valuable land under their homes, for which the annual land tax bill would be impossible for them to pay.</p>
<p>So the argument goes, by taxing people on their homes they will be 'incentivised' to move somewhere smaller and more appropriate for their needs.</p>
<p>It could certainly happen over time, though it would be a brave move politically.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Stamp duty bonanza: Pete Wargent 

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<p>Total employment increased by 80,000 over the three months to February 2017, according to the Detailed Labour Force Figures reported yesterday by the ABS. </p>
<p>Over the year to February, employment was up by 190,400, the strongest pace of growth in a year and well above the long run average.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QUwS2QhUPQ4/WNRr-anruCI/AAAAAAAAirc/gfEtUaZ1JzA5Xkad4Idon89cnZVyHmnEwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QUwS2QhUPQ4/WNRr-anruCI/AAAAAAAAirc/gfEtUaZ1JzA5Xkad4Idon89cnZVyHmnEwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT2.jpg"></p>
<p>Very good on paper!<br><br> Rather too good, in fact, in the event.<br><br> To cut a long story short, upon checking with the ABS, it seems that the figures were just not right.</p>
<p>A slight glitch in the matrix, one might say.<br><br> The quarterly gains were driven by a large 45,500 increase in construction employment.</p>
<p>Mining employment is also now seen to be rising again. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the rebound in manufacturing employment seems to have popped, and employment in the retail trade sector has apparently been crushed over the past year, down by a thumping 62,700. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-if5cS8z3mnM/WNRr-r1rp9I/AAAAAAAAirg/COaIwu7Lnwgx2dlq8CoYoLJvuhp6sNZUgCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-if5cS8z3mnM/WNRr-r1rp9I/AAAAAAAAirg/COaIwu7Lnwgx2dlq8CoYoLJvuhp6sNZUgCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT3.jpg"></p>
<p>A bit of a mixed bag, and one which suggests to me that the economy has become too heavily reliant upon the residential building boom.<br><br> Construction employment has now soared to 1,114,800 from a total workforce of about 12 million, which seems incredibly high - well above historic norms - and probably peaky. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-inQTh61xTaI/WNRr-8CT3kI/AAAAAAAAirk/bd6heGgtC6k7FCAH1-W_-x4wtb-QNqJiwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-inQTh61xTaI/WNRr-8CT3kI/AAAAAAAAirk/bd6heGgtC6k7FCAH1-W_-x4wtb-QNqJiwCLcB/s640/EMPLOYMENT.jpg"></p>
<p>Remarkably the rebound in total mining employment to 241,700 means that employment in the industry is now only 36,700 below the 2012 peak. </p>
<p>Where are the jobs? <span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Perhaps I'll look at the regional jobs growth another time.</span></p>
<p>Just to note here for now that Sydney has consistently seen the lowest unemployment rate of the major capital cities, and Adelaide the highest. </p>
<p>Hobart takes out the most improved award. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4IDe_HPNqBY/WNRr_rPw6BI/AAAAAAAAiro/sX0W-t3dxSwcbHGJdlyKfCMu8A9mRbTfwCLcB/s640/UNEMPLOYMENT%2BRATES.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Brisbane is now seeing population growth picking up as expected, which over time will help to tackle the inner city apartment glut, though this is also putting pressure on detached house prices in sought after school zones. </p>
<p>But to date Greater Brisbane doesn't appear to be creating the jobs to keep its unemployment rate down.</p>
<p>And it needs to.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Construction driving employment increases: Pete Wargent

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<div>Within the Consumer Price Index figures, the ABS produces some very useful quality-adjusted figures on rental price inflation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series shows how rents can rise very fast when investors are spooked out of the market, such as between 1985 and 1987 (changes to tax legislation) and 2008 (global financial crisis).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>When investor activity is high, on the other hand, the growth in rents is likely to be weaker, and this is also the case when low interest rates make buying a home comparatively more attractive than renting. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, nationally annual rental price growth is at its lowest level in more than 22 years, at 0.6 per cent.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s1600/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TapbS0WJLJA/WIiHzukMDfI/AAAAAAAAhak/ndXk6_mJwuYkNIMYlgamcTe_ZXRg6mH3QCLcB/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a><br><br>In Perth, annual rental growth has turned negative to the tune of -7.2 per cent.<br><br></p>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uEibKl7v3wA/WIiHzuEUPiI/AAAAAAAAhag/SXTXMTsRc6glPmclKzhWpDZgTpWppJaLgCLcB/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="352"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Darwin is by some margin the weakest rental market, with rents declining by -8.2 per cent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other side of the ledger, Hobart is the tightest capital city rental market, with quality-adjusted rents increasing by 3.5 per cent in 2016. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UxoHSu6V94w/WIiHzDbkYtI/AAAAAAAAhac/dxkvE9U8dU8nCp-g_SVnqVl0DqN1_KvIgCLcB/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>A look at the long-run figures shows that despite the supply response real rents in both Sydney and Melbourne continued to rise to all-time highs. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4bBihfkI2e8/WIiH0l1XAdI/AAAAAAAAhao/x9GcxFT-oyogKdHKJnWFu4ENGUXxTHbPQCLcB/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<p> In real terms, at the city level Brisbane rents are certain to move lower in 2017 due to the inner city apartments overbuild. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</p>
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Pete Wargent

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