<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATIONS</p>
<p>Building approvals held up well in April 2018, still tracking at 19,000 per month in trend terms.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sPFJh_iXaNg/Ww4PpeWWqHI/AAAAAAAAqRU/qNz215mLY2oj6wIWKRw0SWCSvAE_dxYnACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sPFJh_iXaNg/Ww4PpeWWqHI/AAAAAAAAqRU/qNz215mLY2oj6wIWKRw0SWCSvAE_dxYnACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1341"></a></p>
<p>It's still very much hammer time for Melbourne apartments, but Sydney unit approvals continued their decline to sit at the lowest level since August 2015.  <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PWI4D2EE_r8/Ww4PpJabroI/AAAAAAAAqRM/M1fKllaWLEICWZtZt-RWUEF2Wjfvwkx_gCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PWI4D2EE_r8/Ww4PpJabroI/AAAAAAAAqRM/M1fKllaWLEICWZtZt-RWUEF2Wjfvwkx_gCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1392"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>I've been watching the budding Hobart supply response with mild interest, as well as noting some of the subdivisions and, shall we say, rather ambitious sticker prices for townhomes.</p>
<p>And like many things in Tassie, the supply response been rather slow.</p>
<p>That said, it is now happening, with annual approvals at an 82-month high in rising to the highest level since June 2011. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NdVa1HaRMUw/Ww4PpRgMRFI/AAAAAAAAqRQ/LM-_WGG2GiIaDnf9W-4CuzZUdD_NLqHhQCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NdVa1HaRMUw/Ww4PpRgMRFI/AAAAAAAAqRQ/LM-_WGG2GiIaDnf9W-4CuzZUdD_NLqHhQCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1316"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Overall, the headline numbers were pretty good, thanks to more houses and semis now being approved, notably following population flows into Melbourne and Greater Brisbane, while Perth finally recorded a bit of an uptick, having fallen so sharply since December 2014. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qmIXwgoTuUs/Ww4PqcSZerI/AAAAAAAAqRY/WdAdH0N_eZUeulmz4CPyT8JiqtZVHZ7EgCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qmIXwgoTuUs/Ww4PqcSZerI/AAAAAAAAqRY/WdAdH0N_eZUeulmz4CPyT8JiqtZVHZ7EgCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1380"></a></p>
<p>Annual house approvals in Perth are 45 per cent below their 2014 peak, but the sentiment and the clouds appear to be lifting a little. </p>
<p>Summarily, pretty solid then.But - and this is a fairly big but - many apartment projects seem to be struggling with pre-sales and therefore with financing, and in turn the residential construction cycle appears set to fade.</p>
<p>There is already a record number of apartments <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/04/bust-looms-for-sydneys-apartment" target="_blank">approved and not yet commenced</a>, especially in Sydney, and approvals to non-resident approvals have been <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/05/foreign-investment-in-new-apartments" target="_blank">curbed dramatically</a>.</p>
<p>Queensland infrastructure lift-off.</p>
<p>The total value of building approved remained strong in the month at more than $10 billion, but arguably a fair chunk of that residential building work approved will never see the light of day, and non-residential approvals are now sliding too.</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xFIb4e2oJBg/Ww4Pq_d-hpI/AAAAAAAAqRc/Yi7uYlyWUV8Hv52JeMm3JA9K5dz83BXqACLcBGAs/s1600/A5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xFIb4e2oJBg/Ww4Pq_d-hpI/AAAAAAAAqRc/Yi7uYlyWUV8Hv52JeMm3JA9K5dz83BXqACLcBGAs/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1381"></a></p>
<p>The one shining light is Queensland, where all the talk of commercial projects is now finally translating into action stations.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-trvDoCqub6s/Ww4Prf_YpLI/AAAAAAAAqRg/TYg643XKVlMlDJaXaeEy_FNnBIvWvEg8wCLcBGAs/s1600/A6.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-trvDoCqub6s/Ww4Prf_YpLI/AAAAAAAAqRg/TYg643XKVlMlDJaXaeEy_FNnBIvWvEg8wCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="774" data-original-width="1349"></a></p>
<p>However, the sugar-hit for Melbourne and Sydney eventually looks set to wear off.</p>
<p>Overall, then, these figures appear consistent with the construction cycle rolling over this year.</p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Hammer time for Melbourne apartments, but Sydney unit approvals continue decline: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div><span>EXPERT OBSERVATION</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) released its Annual Report for the 2017 financial year, and as expected it showed that investment in new apartments from mainland Chinese investors has been annihilated by a combination of fee charges and tighter capital controls.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>There's much more to the Annual Report than just the residential real estate investment aspect, of course, but this is a blog not an Encyclopaedia Britannica so let's crack straight into it.</span><span><br></span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Although the impact on total foreign investment was played down in the report, the reality is that the number of residential approvals have been smoked, down by 67 per cent from the prior year. </span></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMTpeaTHMM4/WwyhL22FvEI/AAAAAAAAqP0/8gaf_QtZb183rLkVwdH45jQUDJNGnkdRQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMTpeaTHMM4/WwyhL22FvEI/AAAAAAAAqP0/8gaf_QtZb183rLkVwdH45jQUDJNGnkdRQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1337"></a></div>
<div>Similarly the value of residential approvals crashed 65 per cent lower from $72.4 billion to $25.2 billion. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeKkUWK9UlM/WwyhMNmDdLI/AAAAAAAAqP4/8tL55X2DYeMHxJaDttmNpm2Z3WPJ1uxcQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eeKkUWK9UlM/WwyhMNmDdLI/AAAAAAAAqP4/8tL55X2DYeMHxJaDttmNpm2Z3WPJ1uxcQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1376"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The bulk of new approvals through this unprecedented cycle have been for new dwelling exemption certificates, mainly for Chinese investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking at these numbers it's not hard to understand how Sydney now has more apartments approved but not yet commenced than at any time in its history, as <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/bust-looms-for-sydneys-apartment" target="_blank">detailed here previously</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The offshore buyers have dried up, demand from domestic investors has been stymied, and the demand from owner-occupiers is insufficient to get new development project finance across the line. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NB_Pr0ox8ag/WwyhMFmGT_I/AAAAAAAAqP8/QW3ddVDDvDsLNYRsM8ydj3RaFs_WdVtqQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NB_Pr0ox8ag/WwyhMFmGT_I/AAAAAAAAqP8/QW3ddVDDvDsLNYRsM8ydj3RaFs_WdVtqQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1354"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Statistically it appears to be a certainty that Sydney will experience the greatest number of failed apartment projects as these trends flow through. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oB--8HHlBVI/WwyhNNBYK4I/AAAAAAAAqQA/jcgvA_iBayUyUp_smd7mvblQxlk_NFajQCLcBGAs/s1600/FIRB4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oB--8HHlBVI/WwyhNNBYK4I/AAAAAAAAqQA/jcgvA_iBayUyUp_smd7mvblQxlk_NFajQCLcBGAs/s640/FIRB4.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>I expect to see plenty of apartment projects stalling, and increasing signs of discounting on new Sydney apartments.<br><br>Perhaps this was an inevitable end-game for this cycle, where development has been too much skewed towards apartments for investors, and too little towards the types of medium-density dwellings that people want to reside in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As noted, there is much more to foreign investment than just new apartment purchases, with total investment of $168 billion only 4 per cent below the level seen in the prior year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And indeed, investment in manufacturing, agriculture, ports, other commercial real estate, and resources has catapulted China to become by far and away the greatest investor in Australia at $38.9 billion in FY2017, miles ahead of the United States in second place at $26.5 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nevertheless, these figures will have some significant impacts on the new apartment sector, construction trends, and the broader economy - and especially so in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span>
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Local demand insufficient to get projects across the line as offshore apartment buyers dry up: Pete Wargent

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<div><span>A solid headline result for employment growth in April 2018, beating expectations of 20,000, with total seasonally adjusted employment up by 22,600 to beyond 12<span>½</span> million for the first time, driven by a substantial 32,700 increase in full time jobs.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>There were, however, adverse revisions to take into account for the preceding month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cSFR5OFaXS8/Wv0rFcRhMQI/AAAAAAAAqFs/ni7qvpHrW1IG6pa-CJ-CqqHyNmyokZuYQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cSFR5OFaXS8/Wv0rFcRhMQI/AAAAAAAAqFs/ni7qvpHrW1IG6pa-CJ-CqqHyNmyokZuYQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1372"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Alas, the Coalition's favoured '1000 jobs per month' slogan is going to have to be canned forthwith, with annual employment growth down from a record high of 431,200 in January 2018 to 332,200 (or 2.73 per cent) by April. </div>
<p>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_JFbqwgARDc/Wv0rFQ_Ib9I/AAAAAAAAqFw/Yy8kZrFzvI8ZiFYm7PFFKrAPo0ZGSzJAACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_JFbqwgARDc/Wv0rFQ_Ib9I/AAAAAAAAqFw/Yy8kZrFzvI8ZiFYm7PFFKrAPo0ZGSzJAACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state (NSW superboom)</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Employment blazed another 27,600 higher in New South Wales to be up by 46,800 over the quarter, and a thunderous 156,000 year-on-year, casting further doubt on the endless gloomy house price predictions, with first homebuyers also now wading in. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The New South Wales economy has added well over 300,000 extra jobs over the past three years, something achieved for the first time ever on a rolling 3-year basis in the past few months across more than 40 years of available figures. </div>
<p>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hU-FibmfM9o/Wv0rFEzr5GI/AAAAAAAAqFo/YE68F8xEGcMtqe9nrQ6JYlK-D9crzfLkACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hU-FibmfM9o/Wv0rFEzr5GI/AAAAAAAAqFo/YE68F8xEGcMtqe9nrQ6JYlK-D9crzfLkACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1342"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>One of the extraordinary aspects of this cycle has been the sheer concentration of employment growth.<br><br>Of the suburbs where participation rates have been rising almost all of them are in the inner suburban heart the big capital cities, while more than half of jobs have been created within a tiny 2-kilometre radius of the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs.<br><br>Small wonder the competition for prime location land continues to intensify.<br><br>Queensland's jobs boom seems to have tapered back, with annual employment growth in trend terms now at 3.5 per cent, remaining comfortably in second place only to New South Wales at a supercharged 3.8 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly the trend participation rate hit a record high 65.7 per cent in April driven by female and older workers entering the labour force, with the unemployment rate ticking up a notch to 5.6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_ANT7qWj-sE/Wv0rGiDqpLI/AAAAAAAAqGM/1wL4OeEc2_Qfu93prKaJ5OTpNvAt7K4WACEwYBhgL/s640/A5.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_ANT7qWj-sE/Wv0rGiDqpLI/AAAAAAAAqGM/1wL4OeEc2_Qfu93prKaJ5OTpNvAt7K4WACEwYBhgL/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<p>Despite searing annual population growth of 123,100 and 147,400 in the two most populous states respectively, New South Wales has a trend unemployment rate of just 4.9 per cent while Victoria has seen its trend unemployment rate crunched lower to 5.3 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent a year earlier. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--TIYS4_qVXQ/Wv0rGSfiMwI/AAAAAAAAqF0/k_KZjy70WNEuwkE2jt4Cr5UIlwBpR9j8gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--TIYS4_qVXQ/Wv0rGSfiMwI/AAAAAAAAqF0/k_KZjy70WNEuwkE2jt4Cr5UIlwBpR9j8gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1376"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Finally, and to finish on a positive note, the trend annual growth in monthly hours worked increased to 3.3 per cent, the highest level since all the way back in August 2010. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IGsidl1U7dg/Wv0rHIOpcFI/AAAAAAAAqF8/uoGPI43dbcM5jHX6TIimeuaWZuE3aXDGwCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IGsidl1U7dg/Wv0rHIOpcFI/AAAAAAAAqF8/uoGPI43dbcM5jHX6TIimeuaWZuE3aXDGwCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1348"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, these figures would be construed as disappointing if you don't live in New South Wales, where the stamp duty/infrastructure boom is paying some serious dividends. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Employment growth in recent times has been quite heavily focused in healthcare and construction, which might in part account for why wages growth has generally been tepid across most industries.<br><br>Underutilisation remains elevated, despite a modest improvement. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate policymakers will most likely see enough positives here to stay on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
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New South Wales, where the stamp duty/infrastructure boom is paying serious dividends: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Brighter news for Brisbane landlords as the vacancy rate declined to 3% from 3.7% a year earlier, according to SQM Research figures. </p>
<p>Asking rents for Brisbane units increased by +0.4% in the month, too, mainly driven by the upper end of the market (renting good quality property in inner Brisbane still doesn't come cheap, despite the soft market overall). </p>
<p>Brisbane appears to have a turned a corner as population growth picks up and dwelling commencements now decline sharply. </p>
<p>The 6mMA figures attempt to capture the latest trends, but do incorporate the Christmas period, when vacancy rates tend to be high. </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cfT-Ng3Fy1o/WvtKDkHSxbI/AAAAAAAAqCg/3OLsp0ja3s4mgBlgrF-opHfFLrivSJ7zQCLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1379"></p>
<p>Hobart appears to be through the worst for renters with vacancy rates rising slightly to 0.7%.</p>
<p>Adelaide is building plenty of houses, but hasn't experienced the surge in investors seen in the larger cities, and accordingly vacancy rates keep tightening, now down to 1.3%.</p>
<p>Melbourne was also tighter again on strong population growth at 1.3%. </p>
<p>Sydney's vacancy rates was flat at 2.3% in the month, but plenty higher than a year earlier when it was 1.7%, while Perth continues to turn the corner. </p>
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Good news for Brisbane landlords as vacancy rate slips: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Home loan arrears are just beginning to creep a bit higher on weak income growth.</span><br><br><span>So reports the Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) in its trading update.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pmu1pNOxlig/WvI_Z6QG82I/AAAAAAAAp6k/BOUkDZcbQ1MFLXlP6aL2Pe5dtLBJFaXBwCLcBGAs/s1600/CBA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pmu1pNOxlig/WvI_Z6QG82I/AAAAAAAAp6k/BOUkDZcbQ1MFLXlP6aL2Pe5dtLBJFaXBwCLcBGAs/s640/CBA.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="863"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: ASX</span></em><br><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></em>
</div>
<div>
<div>The market was unhappy with the trimmed unaudited cash profit of $2.35 million.<br><br>The result is 2.1 per cent lower than the unaudited figure for the prior year's corresponding period. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Share price latest: down -3.4 per cent to $71, having bounced off the intraday lows at $70.80.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Our latest report for funds and institutional investors <a href="https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-immediate-implications-of-tighter-lending-standards" target="_blank">Chemical Change</a> discusses the downside risks eventuating from a combination of trimmed lending volumes, a potential loss of market share, compressed margins, and an uptick in home loan arrears. </div>
<div> </div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Weak income growth triggering higher arrears: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The yield trap refers to how stocks with high dividend yields can often be, erm, a trap, since the high yield is often reflective of weak share price performance or an unsustainable dividend.</p>
<p>It's tempting to gun for the apparent promise of a high dividend, but often misguided.</p>
<p>Yield is a spot figure calculated at any given point in time; but it's not the same thing as income over the life of an investment.</p>
<p><strong>Rental yield &amp; risk</strong></p>
<p>The same holds true for most asset classes, not least real estate.</p>
<p>Recall the 15-20% high-yielding mining town 'investments' of 2012 being spruiked by opportunists (Gladstone, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Moranbah etc). </p>
<p>The dividend or rental income wasn't sustainable as supply responded, and these markets utterly imploded. </p>
<p>In a similar vein, let's take a look at apparently everyone's favourite topic du jour, Sydney housing.</p>
<p>Rewind to the day I was allegedly born, and a three-bedroom cottage in Paddo would have set you back about $40,000.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-J2hzZl_ACLs/WuUzyayRQ6I/AAAAAAAAps4/pGnAE3F2grcM1gkxhNkKxNckOxvutToaACLcBGAs/s640/VG%2B1977.jpg" width="640" height="482" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="876"></p>
<p>Higher-yielding investments were always available in the form of two-bedroom apartments, for a purchase price set about 20% lower. </p>
<p>The higher yield partly reflected that units were often more modern - as well as the cheaper purchase price - but also less scarcity value.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RDOjGlliDuE/WuUzyOqUuzI/AAAAAAAApsw/DHuVNNd8E2gcios92ISREitC723aY8sHACLcBGAs/s640/VG%2B1977%2BUnits.jpg" width="640" height="320" data-original-height="433" data-original-width="861"></p>
<p>It's no secret that land and house prices have always appreciated fastest in Sydney's inner ring, ahead of apartment prices and blocks on the outer - the Valuer General dutifully reported as such in typed font for years in its famed 'Blue Book' annual compendium.<br><br> AHURI and the Reserve Bank of Australia periodically note the same thing.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hZvdb6l7SI8/WuUzyAogqTI/AAAAAAAAps0/BkooOqmvggItSNsBpq34ORuePX3Y197KgCLcBGAs/s640/1981%2BValues.jpg" width="640" height="616" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="810"></p>
<p>Roll forward to today and with a bit of a refurb your three-bedroom cottage in Paddo rents for about $1750/week ($91,000 per annum) while the two-bed unit would be doing pretty well if it generated just 40% of that amount. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the cottage costs at least double what the apartment does, probably more, so house prices have continued to outperform too.</p>
<p><strong>Immutable laws of supply &amp; demand</strong></p>
<p>Conventional housing market economics suggests that as prices increase supply should respond, but in the case of inner Sydney land this obviously cannot be so, at least until some brainbox decides to build out on to the harbour. </p>
<p>In fact, the Census figures appeared to show that the number of houses in Sydney's inner ring is actually in decline as they make way for more and more, and more...and more apartments (in some areas more than others, 'tis true).</p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OEXHdEjPlXo/WuVA0ScpMJI/AAAAAAAAptY/B_3sZ8Ap7asnJhRMnHoVxQa26wuWoGWMgCLcBGAs/s640/units.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1342"></p>
<p>Yield is important for serviceability, but it's by no means the same thing as income over the life of an investment. </p>
<p>Inner city apartments still generate a higher percentage yield in Sydney than houses. Maybe they always will. </p>
<p>And don't get me wrong, my portfolio has several apartments in inner ring Sydney.<br><br> But still I know what I'd rather own! </p>
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Don't get caught in the yield trap: Pete Wargent

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<p>Data released by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) showed that just shy of 2.1 million Australians declared an interest in a rental property for the 2016 financial year. </p>
<p>The number declaring a net rental loss to the tax office has declined over the past four years of available figures, mainly due to lower mortgage rates. </p>
<p>Note that under Australian taxation law it is quite possible for an investor to declare a net rental loss to the tax office yet be in a positive cashflow position, in part due to depreciation and capital works deductions. </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1whPH9ZxGns/WuK37Bk7pzI/AAAAAAAApqg/kwFHsUb5wqUHZttcqhF8Seasn-ZXSe23QCLcBGAs/s640/ATO3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1376"></p>
<p>Property investment in Australia is mainly the purview of the Mum and Dad investor, with more than 90% of investors owning just one or two rentals. </p>
<p>71.3% of landlords owned a solitary investment property. </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DSi5FL-iptM/WuK36mh5MgI/AAAAAAAApqY/6N9EbSDo0VEgBhfuMJcPbgE3SlZ6BBBVACLcBGAs/s640/ATO1.jpg" width="640" height="396" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1343"></p>
<p>Who uses negative gearing? A broad range of people, including just over 796,000 with a taxable income of under $80,000, and about 495,200 with a taxable income of above $80,000. </p>
<p>As you might expect, wealthier negatively geared households tend to borrow more and incur greater net rental losses, at least initially. </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QbU1vzGYIcg/WuLAkoI5_CI/AAAAAAAAprM/Gb4UH5XSoJgb8TXV7yfuNaVxSM2ObmOJwCLcBGAs/s640/Claimants.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="1327"></p>
<p>The beneficiaries of negative gearing are often in the younger cohorts, with the net rental profits tending to swell later in life. </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-40OBJshUFFM/WuK38E2gjtI/AAAAAAAApqk/fdPrn7RqWMQPi7I-9hF6TzNMD1h_ra4BwCLcBGAs/s640/ATO4.jpg" width="640" height="404" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1306"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Similarly, the size of net rental profits typically increases for the older cohorts as they move into their retirement years. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ig-jftBvOqc/WuK38ccmAcI/AAAAAAAApqo/Toa8cPMcv0AyyAkHjwroY89ZT4YNjC87QCLcBGAs/s640/ATO5.jpg" width="640" height="420" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1249"></p>
<p><strong>Budget repair happening anyway</strong></p>
<p>In terms of Federal Budget repair, the ATO recorded only a very small change in net rental losses from the $3.6 billion notched in the preceding tax year.</p>
<p>Note that any potential Budget savings from negative gearing rule changes would relate to tax-effected rental losses (as opposed to net rental losses), negative gearing deductions being a timing difference in principle. </p>
<p>Moreover, Treasurer Morrison has already made sweeping changes to plant and equipment depreciation deductions under division 40, which will begin to take effect from the 2018 tax year, while landlord travel expenses will also be disallowed (to the likely dismay of errant politicians). </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vSdIcM_bPBw/WuK37AR7alI/AAAAAAAApqc/x3gB3aikBskCYiZVYvgtFEY3EVbmVtmKgCLcBGAs/s640/ATO2.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1328"></p>
<p>The supposed savings from changing negative gearing rules have always been questionable to my mind, especially after lower taxable bank profits, higher public housing costs, and a raft of other factors are taken into account. </p>
<p>Landlord-bashing has become a popular sport in recent years, yet at the same time the average superannuation balance suggests that millions of Australians are basing their financial futures upon drawing the Age Pension. </p>
<p>The Budget balance has improved significantly regardless of late, thanks to a record +431,000 surge in employment over the year to January 2018 combined with a timely boost in export prices.</p>
<p>Meanwhile at the national level the housing market has cooled and investor activity has been comfortably subdued by macroprudential measures. </p>
<p>With thanks to Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic for expertly dicing up some of the above data points by age cohort at lightning speed.</p>
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71% of landlords owned a solitary investment property: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Headline inflation increased by only +0.4% in the March quarter.</p>
<p>Tradables inflation was negative year-on-year for a third consecutive quarter.</p>
<p>There has been some consumer price inflation, mainly in areas influenced by government, as articulated by Shane Oliver of AMP: utilities, healthcare, education. </p>
<p>There's also been the obligatory excise on tobacco and booze. </p>
<p>But generally CPI in the private sector has been extraordinarily weak. </p>
<p><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EMLo6TRQV-Y/Wt6vpkNhOFI/AAAAAAAApkA/vfRefQ0p_Yoe9s-SyoeO1sWrSC6Tb_W_ACEwYBhgL/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1347"></p>
<p>Prices actually fell for clothing, household equipment, furnishings, and recreation. </p>
<p>Underlying inflation over the year did increase to +1.98%, though a stronger print will soon drop off the annual figure, and in any event this is still below the 2 to 3% target. </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Fodx4jaDI8c/Wt6vrKVfYVI/AAAAAAAApkM/F6hgLqbWIp07Ofis_BQsWj9w6e59fFcNgCEwYBhgL/s640/B3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="1365"></p>
<p>Ongoing weakness, it must be said, with the Australian economy appearing to be firmly entrenched in a low inflation environment. </p>
<p><strong>Rents off the mat</strong></p>
<p>Nationally rental price growth was off the mat, with rents up in Sydney (+2.4%) and Melbourne (+2.2%), but marginally down in Brisbane (-0.5%), and still negative year-on-year in Perth and Darwin, though the respective lows for these two resources capitals now appear to have passed.<br><br> Canberra's rental price growth has done a donut from significantly negative -2.5% to +2.7% over the past 11 quarters, and rents are accelerating fast.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-chSZtq4Yk1k/Wt6vqOFeBNI/AAAAAAAApkI/55F714zQs6Uk4FJCTu4-K04ApY6LtV-SgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1400"></p>
<p>Sydney rents continued to outpace all groups CPI by a significant margin, as they have tended to across the past 11 years.</p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GnXIXQ_L90E/Wt6vpxyt7VI/AAAAAAAApkE/Z7CZpTlFC6oLJ4wCHaZuDR6r83NU_YY-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1487"></p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong> </p>
<p>Overall, seemingly no significant implications for interest rate moves in the near-term, with underlying inflation still below target (and missing expectations), as it has been for quarter after quarter after quarter.</p>
<p>Of course, +1.98% is getting pretty close to the target.</p>
<p>Wages growth may begin to pick up - following on from news of better earnings growth - but some of the key leading indicators such as broad money growth and building permits have weakened over the past year. </p>
<p>Hard to see any change in interest rates over the remainder of 2018 (and probably 2019) in my head, but nobody ever agrees with me on the world wide interweb.</p>
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National rental price growth rises off the mat: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Both new residential building and renovation activity declined significantly in 2017, with total seasonally adjusted dwelling starts down to 52,600 by the final quarter of the year, well down from the peak of 62,300 in the first quarter of calendar year 2016.</p>
<p>The drop was driven by a 17% year-on-year decline in attached dwellings, with Brisbane's inner city apartment market the prime culprit. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Aqgce8eMVis/Ws3krKiHsuI/AAAAAAAApW4/hwxLmhWjgzMkCiXBwS61LwBb0e9cfsQXgCLcBGAs/s1600/3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Aqgce8eMVis/Ws3krKiHsuI/AAAAAAAApW4/hwxLmhWjgzMkCiXBwS61LwBb0e9cfsQXgCLcBGAs/s640/3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1346"></a></p>
<p>Sundry indicators suggest that activity across Queensland should now trend moderately upwards, spurred on by a healthier spread of boutique developments, 'plexes, and townhomes.</p>
<p>But inner Brisbane's new build high-rise sector is absolutely cactus as the renters move in. </p>
<p>Interestingly, despite the extremely high level of apartment starts through this cycle, total dwelling completions continued to decline for another quarter, suggesting that all is not well in developer-land. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fxCJHA8tq6o/Ws3lYKrikcI/AAAAAAAApXY/P5ORNb1wvhQ0wojNqhZxHtnvOX-DwSl0gCLcBGAs/s1600/5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fxCJHA8tq6o/Ws3lYKrikcI/AAAAAAAApXY/P5ORNb1wvhQ0wojNqhZxHtnvOX-DwSl0gCLcBGAs/s640/5.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1338"></a></p>
<p><strong>Crunch looms for developers</strong></p>
<p>By the end of the year there were still some 150,000 attached dwellings under construction. for the seventh consecutive quarter.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6uuK9Vf8lJw/Ws3uwfvG1oI/AAAAAAAApXs/hd3mUvlFK6wWWot_rbIw_LtZco3QyHtwgCLcBGAs/s1600/1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6uuK9Vf8lJw/Ws3uwfvG1oI/AAAAAAAApXs/hd3mUvlFK6wWWot_rbIw_LtZco3QyHtwgCLcBGAs/s640/1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1380"></a></p>
<p>Drilling down a level it's clear to see that while apartment activity was fading fast in Melbourne and Brisbane respectively, Sydney and the state New South Wales had more than 68,000 attached dwellings under construction.</p>
<p>To say that this is unprecedented would be an understatement; the numbers are off the charts!</p>
<p>Now it does take a long time to see apartment projects through from approval, but in Sydney the completions just haven't been hitting the market in the numbers expected.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rq6BLQR7lGc/Ws3krLf7-rI/AAAAAAAApW0/FofyGN3Y-BEk1VE3yTRvzAk-EzbKXW1FQCLcBGAs/s1600/2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rq6BLQR7lGc/Ws3krLf7-rI/AAAAAAAApW0/FofyGN3Y-BEk1VE3yTRvzAk-EzbKXW1FQCLcBGAs/s640/2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1352"></a></p>
<p>Total dwelling completions in 2017 for New South Wales were 61,600, with just over half of that total accounted for by attached dwellings, which on a net completions basis is barely keeping pace with demand. </p>
<p>Officially, of course, everything is fine.</p>
<p>There are few reported defaults, and settlement valuations are holding up reasonably well despite the softening of the resale market and the total evaporation of the offshore Chinese bid.</p>
<p>With pre-sales flagging it's certainly hard to envisage as many new projects getting off the ground, as investors grapple for finance in the midst of a Royal Commission into banking misconduct.</p>
<p>It's become a vicious circle, with nervous banks requiring higher pre-sales which developers are unable to achieve, and finance for construction thus not forthcoming. </p>
<p>In any case, a raft of actioned and proposed budgetary and regulatory macroprudential measures have made property investment less appealing at the margin (and totally unappealing for foreign investors). </p>
<p>Another compelling indicator of troubled times ahead for developers is the sheer number of dwellings approved but not commenced at 46,400, mostly accounted for by apartments and by far the highest figure in Australia's history. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gUWVmdnHC2E/Ws3kr6g6XAI/AAAAAAAApW8/wcRYn02NKMIyys25qx5zJ4VRnBJ_JRaZQCLcBGAs/s1600/4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gUWVmdnHC2E/Ws3kr6g6XAI/AAAAAAAApW8/wcRYn02NKMIyys25qx5zJ4VRnBJ_JRaZQCLcBGAs/s640/4.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1385"></a></p>
<p><strong>What happens next?</strong></p>
<p>Now sure, the plural of anecdote is not data, but I believe that we'll see many of Sydney's apartment projects running into trouble. </p>
<p>The official line is that defaults are low, and everything is going swimmingly, but I'm not so sure. </p>
<p>By the way, don't rely on anything you read here either, this is just my opinion.</p>
<p>Take a drive around, speak to a few sales staff, observe how apartment projects are progressing. </p>
<p>In addition to the astonishing boom and collapse of Chinese investors, another potentially unique aspect of this cycle is that construction and materials costs could remain high in Sydney, even in the face of a sharp drop in apartment activity.</p>
<p>Forged on the back of a stamp and transfer duty bonanza from both residential housing and asset sales, the state has embarked upon an overdue thrust at tackling its infrastructure deficit, in turn propelling total construction employment to even greater heights. </p>
<p>As a result construction employment surged higher than it had ever been before both in absolute terms and as a share of the workforce, squeezing developer margins.</p>
<p>Incidentally, I personally believe that most of the apartments approved in Sydney will be converted into dwelling starts in the fullness of time, but quite possibly at a different price and rate. </p>
<p>Receivers and cashed up opportunists will stand by at the ready. </p>
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Pete Wargent

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