<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/housing-finance-at-6-month-high"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing finance to slow</span></strong></p>
<div id="post-body-3782979424120573100" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The Housing Finance figures were released for February 2018 this week, reported as "Housing finance falls in February" (Australian), "Falls felt for February" (Rate City), and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interesting interpretations, given that housing finance was...well, up!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, having allowed a few days to elapse, here are four thoughts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Loan sizes up</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>One less well reported thing that I picked up was the rise in the average loan size over the past year to non-first homebuyers. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s1600/A.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFMQ5qZidWg/WtGJFCzTDCI/AAAAAAAApZs/aQj0azYhYZIaNO6P5i4e-tqwiXO6IcE0gCLcBGAs/s640/A.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1380"></a></div>
<br><div>Across the states, Victoria has been the main driver of rising average loan sizes, although each of the most populous states has seen an increase over the year. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CTDOLXluGZk/WtGdsxOO_wI/AAAAAAAApa0/gZ5P9igaXOweuEskDqxF_Lbb_8RxHBnmwCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div>As a result, owner-occupier commitments rose +1.3 per cent in February, and investor loans were up +0.5 per cent, taking total housing finance to a 6-month high of $33.52 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling the trendlines through the data shows that total housing finance has essentially been flat for 15 months now, while a fair chunk of refinancing has been in evidence within that total.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1Bjss393W5U/WtGJFgDnoVI/AAAAAAAApZw/njaKD7l4b0YeEKNbUqyQmx4zk0-Po1RswCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1377"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - First homebuyer incentives bite</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another notable trend was that first homebuyer loans were up by a third from a year earlier, driven by New South Wales, where the number of first homebuyers doubled from February 2017.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ibkv7O3WjA/WtGJGTuCnxI/AAAAAAAApZ4/1T7jjV8_T0w5zCq41Wx86Xe0xZPWDGBowCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Homebuyer commitments for new dwellings rose by +6.6 per cent from a month earlier, but are now in a trend decline from 4-decade highs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s1600/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ntJnZ5ey7U/WtGJHSE47qI/AAAAAAAApaA/uQkffE2SL4sQjzMQMv9_3JghWoZw38fNACLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1350"></a></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Prevalence of non-banks</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, the trend result for non-bank lending declined in the month, and remains at only around half the peak levels of a decade ago, but will nevertheless remain a key point of interest as lending standards come into focus. </div>
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<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Royal Commission to slow lending</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall housing finance beat expectations despite a small decline in the actual number of home loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in its Financial Stability Review that an average of $120 billion of interest-only loans per annum are <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">due</span> </strong>for conversion between now and 2021.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing unknown there, though some people misread that as $480 billion of loans that <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">will</span></strong> convert to principal repayments, which isn't going to happen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere, Moody's reported 30+ day delinquencies at 1.45 per cent, down from 1.52 per cent a year earlier, despite some trouble spots including Gladstone, central Queensland, some suburbs of Perth, and other parts of Western Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A final point, and a key outcome to watch over the days and weeks ahead is the impact of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems that borrowers will now be required to be provide statements on all debts, a loophole closure which appears likely to be a wise move. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there could be some overreach in terms of brokers needing to audit bank statements to support declared living expenses broken down by category, the aim being to reduce the typical reliance on benchmarks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are many problem with this, not least that borrowers tend to have multiple bank accounts and credit cards these days with different banks.<br><br>Certainly private banking clients and affluent borrowers have never been subjected to such scrutiny, which may lead to some interesting discussions! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that loans are already being assessed at mortgage rates way in excess of the rate actually being paid, it seems like overkill.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If implemented forcefully this will slow the mortgage market and reduce transaction volumes as brokers and borrowers get to grips with the new requirements.<br><br>Mortgage brokers would presumably also need to consider switching to a fee-for-service model to compensate for the exponential increase in paperwork and compliance.<br><br>Regulators in the UK went through their own mortgage market review (MMR) in 2014 which ultimately lowered the risk of borrowers over-stretching and made the industry more professional.<br><br>The MMR also temporarily gummed up the lending market, so we'll have to see what plays out Down Under. </div>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Royal Commission to slow property lending: Pete Wargent

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<div>On the face of it a better result for retail trade in February 2018, with a +0.6 per cent increase in turnover, and the January result revised up slightly to +0.2 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Under the hood, though, this was another soft result, with department stores clearly under intense pressure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total retail turnover in February was $26.45 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, so only a marginal +0.2 per cent higher than we saw back in November when the i-Phone X was unleashed and Black Friday spiked the results.<br><br>And the February figures for Sydney and Melbourne would have been enhanced by Chinese Lunar New Year falling later this year than last.<br><br>You can click on the graphics to enlarge them. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>Looking through the monthly noise, retail turnover in trend terms was a modest +2.7 per cent higher over the year. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s1600/RT2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-axAwhcKUOFE/WsQu3ThUh2I/AAAAAAAApPo/0YOiI3fU9dUkiTZ8a1e-B08Yd0oNU85ewCLcBGAs/s640/RT2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
<p>The monthly rebound in turnover was driven by New South Wales (+1.1 per cent) and Victoria (+1.1 per cent), offset by a decline in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent).  </p>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Amazon arrives</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>These figures are of particular interest since the survey should include Amazon Australia sales.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's one thing we do know it's that there has been widespread industry discounting - indeed, you can take a walk around any shopping mall and see this for yourself.<br><br>We'll see this better in the quarterly results, which will shed more light on price inflation (deflation) versus volumes as a driver of retail turnover. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Price discounting in part helped to drive a +1.5 per cent rebound in department store turnover in the month, but this came off the back of a series of monthly declines, with turnover remaining well below the levels seen in October last year. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>The rolling annual trend numbers over the the longer term tell the story better - department stores have never faced such sustained pressure since the statistician began measuring numbers. </div>
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<p>Tellingly, online retail accounted for 5.1 per cent of total turnover in the month, up from 3.6 per cent only a year earlier, an alarming rate of increase from the perspective of traditional retailers. </p>
<div>Myer has been one high-profile casualty with its share price trading at around 36 cents (down from a float price of $4.10) but there are plenty of others...and more in the offing. </div>
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Department stores under intense pressure: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>There's so much more commentary around than there used to be that I should probably direct a bit more attention to trying to blog about things that don't get a whole lot of coverage elsewhere.</p>
<p>Here are a four things that sprang to mind last week. </p>
<p><strong>Narrative change</strong></p>
<p>Firstly, it looks to be as though household debt might feasibly peak at around 1.9x annual household disposable income. </p>
<p>It was a front page splash a little while back when UBS reported that Australia's household debt to disposable income ratio was shockingly high at 2x and projected that it would balloon all the way out to 2.05x.</p>
<p>Then again it seems almost everything UBS reports about Australian housing is front page news these days.</p>
<p>In the event it turned out that not only was this not to be the case, the actual ratio was in fact just 1.88x.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed a misaollocation of household debt in its data, which in turns flows through to the derived ratios. </p>
<p>Interest-only mortgage lending also really began to plummet in the September 2017 quarter and continued to do so thereafter, so in my best estimates the debt ratio won't get anywhere near 2x. </p>
<p>You'd think this might get a bit more airtime than it has after all the preceding hullabaloo, but debt being revised lower isn't much of an attention-grabbing headline. </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tw2MA69_Ygc/WsIXCBirZ0I/AAAAAAAApOY/T9fT3kwqhy4Rj4eLSMklIbNELYHVz-hiwCLcBGAs/s1600/HW4.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tw2MA69_Ygc/WsIXCBirZ0I/AAAAAAAApOY/T9fT3kwqhy4Rj4eLSMklIbNELYHVz-hiwCLcBGAs/s640/HW4.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1316"></a></p>
<p>Secondly, last week the ABS reported its Household Finance &amp; Wealth statistics for the December 2017 quarter, which showed household wealth soaring to $10.2 trillion (this did get some great coverage from <em>Commsec</em>, with its outstanding daily analysis as always). </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dRYJJnwyNVs/WsIPr4m0F8I/AAAAAAAApN0/Z-vC01Eda78oiEvfhIZ41wCMmPgav0f_ACLcBGAs/s1600/HW2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dRYJJnwyNVs/WsIPr4m0F8I/AAAAAAAApN0/Z-vC01Eda78oiEvfhIZ41wCMmPgav0f_ACLcBGAs/s640/HW2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1348"></a></p>
<p>This put Australia's estimated average net worth per capita at more than $411,000, representing a new high with average wealth up by about $16,000 in 2017, though global stock markets perhaps look set to take a hit in early 2018. </p>
<p>Many commentators believe Australia is lacking in potential drivers of growth, yet we're sitting on a greater average household wealth than any other country in the world bar Switzerland, so a few tweaks on the right policy levers could potentially unlock plenty of consumption. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tpGxTSHm-Eo/WsIPr2Lvh2I/AAAAAAAApNw/g6-EKwlRy78Klopxagazv0ALnfkmeTc9gCLcBGAs/s1600/HW3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tpGxTSHm-Eo/WsIPr2Lvh2I/AAAAAAAApNw/g6-EKwlRy78Klopxagazv0ALnfkmeTc9gCLcBGAs/s640/HW3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1370"></a></p>
<p><strong>Debt now being repaid</strong></p>
<p>Through 2017 there was a huge shift in interest-only lending from 37.5% of new housing loans at the end of 2016 to just 15.2% by the final quarter of 2017. </p>
<p>While you have to make a few assumptions to work out exactly what might happen next, it seems quite possible that the household debt ratio could soon begin to fall, from the already-revised lower level. </p>
<p>A recent stock market release from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) noted that more than a quarter of its interest-only loans will roll off this year, with some existing borrowers voluntarily opting to switch to principal and interest mortgages for the cheaper rates. </p>
<p>Thirdly, then, while there has been a lot of focus on BBSW rates this week, partly of a result of switching to cheaper mortgage rates the derived household interest payable to income ratio was actually lower than a year earlier by the end of 2017 at just 10.2%. </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fKWVWJnwm4M/WsIPrxlvEmI/AAAAAAAApNs/FTRSLbDXC_AB6QvMXO_oDSzrklTIcYu4gCLcBGAs/s1600/HW1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fKWVWJnwm4M/WsIPrxlvEmI/AAAAAAAApNs/FTRSLbDXC_AB6QvMXO_oDSzrklTIcYu4gCLcBGAs/s640/HW1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1370"></a>&lt;</p>
<p>Another factor which might help to push the household debt to income ratio lower by the end of this year is that average earnings are now <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/best-earnings-growth-since-2014-led-by" target="_blank">rising again at the fastest pace since 2014</a>.</p>
<p>Greater Sydney, which now has an <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/sydney-unemployment-rate-continues-to" target="_blank">annual average unemployment rate of just 4.5%</a>, is leading the way in terms of the earnings recovery. </p>
<p>The cost of living has an impact on the ability of households to pay down debt and consume, of course, but today's monthly inflation gauge recorded a very modest +0.1% increase, and that followed a -0.1% decrease in the preceding month. </p>
<p>There's been plenty of talk about rising living costs as a result of supply shocks, but as more households shift their focus to paying down debt it seems mighty hard to visualise core inflation getting anywhere near to the top of the target 2-3% band over the next few years.</p>
<p>In any event, if the money supply is any worthwhile precursor at all to inflationary pressures, the growth in M3 hit its lowest levels in a quarter of a century at the last count. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mDTqh8AN0Y8/WsIcRA6AoaI/AAAAAAAApOo/PRn-x-w4K-QxTi-cPnvwB0YeADHonNfJgCLcBGAs/s1600/HW5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mDTqh8AN0Y8/WsIcRA6AoaI/AAAAAAAApOo/PRn-x-w4K-QxTi-cPnvwB0YeADHonNfJgCLcBGAs/s640/HW5.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1371"></a></p>
<p>Another factor which might help to push the household debt to income ratio lower by the end of this year is that average earnings are now <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/best-earnings-growth-since-2014-led-by" target="_blank">rising again at the fastest pace since 2014</a>.</p>
<p>Greater Sydney, which now has an <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/sydney-unemployment-rate-continues-to" target="_blank">annual average unemployment rate of just 4.5%</a>, is leading the way in terms of the earnings recovery. </p>
<p>The cost of living has an impact on the ability of households to pay down debt and consume, of course, but today's monthly inflation gauge recorded a very modest +0.1% increase, and that followed a -0.1% decrease in the preceding month. </p>
<p>There's been plenty of talk about rising living costs as a result of supply shocks, but as more households shift their focus to paying down debt it seems mighty hard to visualise core inflation getting anywhere near to the top of the target 2-3% band over the next few years.</p>
<p>In any event, if the money supply is any worthwhile precursor at all to inflationary pressures, the growth in M3 hit its lowest levels in a quarter of a century at the last count. </p>
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The narrative around household debt is changing: Pete Wargent

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<div>The Department of Home Affairs released its latest pivot tables on temporary visas holders in Australia (with thanks to Henry Sherrell for highlighting). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the December quarter numbers tend to swing sharply higher due to fireworks on the harbour and all that jazz - to well above 2.2 million last year - the September figures make for interesting reading. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The stock data shows that temporary visa holders in Australia rose to 2.07 million by September 2017, well up from 1.96 million a year earlier and some 23 per cent higher than as at September 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That represents an extra 382,000 temporary visa holders in Australia from 5 years ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubting the source of the boom, being the 50 per cent boost in student visas over the past half decade to well over ½ million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SWsd7w8yNy4/Wrmq7fiXsKI/AAAAAAAApH0/Fj9Q0NmYo1UUSiUELINFooJFiPxQBx3BQCLcBGAs/s640/Visas.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1371"></div>
<div>Also of interest to note: the number of bridging visas is now rising fast, implying a surge in the demand for permanent residency (PR) visa places from temporary visa holders.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These trends help to explain why the population of the largest capital cities has effectively been growing much more quickly than implied by the issuance of PR visas alone. </div>
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Student visa boom still underway: Pete Wargent

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<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.<br><br>I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>.<br><br>Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.<br><br>The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.<br><br>I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1: By natural causes...</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.<br><br>The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.<br><br>Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.<br><br>I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.<br><br>I've yet to get divorced.<br><br>You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">much</span></strong> longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).<br><br>Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.<br><br>Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s1600/C1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1336"></a> </div>
<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here.<br><br>Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.<br><br>Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort.<br><br>The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.<br><br>Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2: Immigration nation</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.<br><br>Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.<br><br>Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).<br><br>Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
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<p> The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. </p>
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the <em>Characteristics of Recent Migrants</em> survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>
<br>Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.<br><br>Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.<br><br>European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).<br><br>This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3: Upping sticks</span></strong><br><br>One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.<br><br>Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.<br><br>This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.<br><br>For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.<br><br>About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s1600/C4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s640/C4.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1329"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.<br><br>Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.<br><br>South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.<br><br>The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.<br><br>Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.<br><br>I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 4: Totting it up</span></strong><br><br>Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.<br><br>Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.<br><br>I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.<br><br>But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s1600/C5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s640/C5.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s1600/C6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s640/C6.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1351"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s1600/NT.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s640/NT.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1369"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.<br><br>Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
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Immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers

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<p>I've written a lot here about Queensland's record apartment construction boom, which is now rebalancing. See <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/spirit-in-sky" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/filling-up" target="_blank">here</a>, for example. </p>
<p>The number of attached dwellings constructed through this cycle will exceed even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s. </p>
<p>The number of detached house starts is now rising steadily, but for attached dwellings new commencements are falling fast, especially for the higher-density projects.</p>
<p>And the official numbers are six to nine months old.  </p>
<p>A quick drive around central Brisbane reveals that many projects have been stalled or mothballed, and staged releases pushed out. </p>
<p>Developers simply can't shift many of them, with unusually 'flexible' terms being offered to prospective buyers in some cases. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rg09ZgLw5Ww/WrdC6jxd5GI/AAAAAAAApGI/QOTtowImShEDYsVAlG0pkYKzK4srDyOcQCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1356"></a></p>
<p>Below annual dwelling starts for the state are mapped against the estimated change in the resident population. </p>
<p>I deliberately haven't messed around with the axes on the chart as some are inclined to do.</p>
<p>After all, this cycle has been characterised by record volumes of high-rise apartments, which might house fewer persons per unit on average previously (while there is arguably the issue of Chinese investors and vacant apartments to account for). </p>
<p>The numbers show total dwelling starts falling fast in 2017, as they needed to. </p>
<p>Queensland's net overseas immigration and therefore population growth pulled back hard after the peak of resources construction, leading to a dwelling stock overhang, in a similar vein to Western Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MyszNFjMdGg/WrdCT_USiBI/AAAAAAAApF4/4K2K3u130jAvs7df950CNpjJjU_GvsVgACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
<p>Fortunately for local developers, Queensland has become the state with the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/where-why-population-growth-is" target="_blank">greatest internal population flows in the country</a>, which is helping to stabilise the ship.</p>
<p>They'll be looking to offload their final apartments quick-sharp and put the shutters up for the remainder of this cycle. </p>
<p>As ever, lots of variations are apparent when drilling down to the regional and suburb level. </p>
<p><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></p>
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Queensland's internal population flows stabilising the CBD apartment ship: Pete Wargent

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<p>A quick look at half a dozen of the more interesting housing finance slides for January 2018.</p>
<p>Total housing finance increased by +0.7% in seasonally adjusted terms to $33 billion, but was pretty flat in trend terms, with investor loans continuing to decline and owner-occupier lending growing at +7% per annum to fill the breach.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-M24lH5yOIb0/WqdKC1BohRI/AAAAAAAAo3Y/uStoaGTkvc0KHaEzNHMWx4EbCygq9IxBACEwYBhgL/s640/HF4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a></p>
<p><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-M24lH5yOIb0/WqdKC1BohRI/AAAAAAAAo3Y/uStoaGTkvc0KHaEzNHMWx4EbCygq9IxBACEwYBhgL/s640/HF4.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1377"></p>
<p>January is generally a quiet month due to summer holidays, but first homebuyers continue to be drawn into the market by concessions, now accounting for a market share of 18% in the month. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ag8KiMutZ-8/WqdLJLhxNrI/AAAAAAAAo4A/3-pDL-QN38ITRbwAKoRjKZRiNWwSYJ3xQCLcBGAs/s640/FHB.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ag8KiMutZ-8/WqdLJLhxNrI/AAAAAAAAo4A/3-pDL-QN38ITRbwAKoRjKZRiNWwSYJ3xQCLcBGAs/s640/FHB.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1367"></p>
<p>While first homebuyers are on average struggling to increase their loan sizes due to serviceability caps and stress-testing at above 7% mortgage rates, established owners have been able to use more leverage. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ruSrZ6NBTT0/WqdKCqS0GnI/AAAAAAAAo3U/j7Bj1E2K1wI0ovyEfh9IzQ9JT_gqM0PqgCLcBGAs/s640/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ruSrZ6NBTT0/WqdKCqS0GnI/AAAAAAAAo3U/j7Bj1E2K1wI0ovyEfh9IzQ9JT_gqM0PqgCLcBGAs/s640/HF1.jpg" width="640" height="372" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1390"></p>
<p>That's especially true in Victoria where the average loan size for non-first homebuyers hit a record high. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J8LLXGMj_SM/WqdKCR0vYCI/AAAAAAAAo3Q/tt-VaLWXam0tMPaj2XM1cmbUe6deQYlQQCLcBGAs/s640/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J8LLXGMj_SM/WqdKCR0vYCI/AAAAAAAAo3Q/tt-VaLWXam0tMPaj2XM1cmbUe6deQYlQQCLcBGAs/s640/HF2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1377"></p>
<p><strong>Surge of completions</strong></p>
<p>A number of indicators have suggested that the Sydney market saw a huge number of dwelling completions in or around the final quarter of 2017, as construction activity now drops back from record highs and a spike in vacancy rates is observed. </p>
<p>The number of finance commitments for new dwellings is coming down off four-decade highs.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8h3hCJlrxJM/WqdKDkn_fDI/AAAAAAAAo3c/GJx-yaHcc0c2Eq7JbEfbZMNOUrViqXVdQCLcBGAs/s640/HF5.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8h3hCJlrxJM/WqdKDkn_fDI/AAAAAAAAo3c/GJx-yaHcc0c2Eq7JbEfbZMNOUrViqXVdQCLcBGAs/s640/HF5.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1342"></p>
<p>New South Wales has seen more new dwellings financed by homebuyers than ever before over a 12-month stretch, underscoring the point. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k9QfN15EP3s/WqdKEO_HtDI/AAAAAAAAo3g/_20z2zxy8N4Ik_9evFiPhEKP-GPba0g4QCLcBGAs/s640/HF6.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<div class="separator">
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k9QfN15EP3s/WqdKEO_HtDI/AAAAAAAAo3g/_20z2zxy8N4Ik_9evFiPhEKP-GPba0g4QCLcBGAs/s640/HF6.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1364"><p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>Overall, if you piece this together with other figures out recently including from APRA, the stats point toward a surge in apartment completions in Sydney, and investor lending being quelled as first homebuyers are increasingly drawn into the market by stamp duty and other concessions.</p>
<p><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a><span>.</span></p>
</div>
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Investor loans in decline: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">One of several reasons that some of Australia's property markets might fare surprisingly well in 2018 is the looming equities correction, driven by volatility in the US and elsewhere. </p>
<div id="post-body-3635881065614058753" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>It's now become clear (if it wasn't already obvious) that <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">interest rates aren't going to be hiked</a> this year, and probably not next either. </p>
<div>Employment is picking up nicely in some capital cities, and population growth is rising too, driving demand for housing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the lack of enticing alternatives will keep a healthy volume of investors interested in real estate, with the cash rate stuck at record lows for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since closing at 6135.81 on January 9, the Aussie share market as measured by the ASX 200 index has already dropped by -5.13 per cent. </div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s1600/ASX.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_sAlsZxuWc/WoGEnIt1p4I/AAAAAAAAoVU/Wh5XDB5n5WIcr8wZ2yalDLc1Cu-9oILIgCLcBGAs/s640/ASX.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1373"></a></div>
<div><span><strong> </strong></span></div>
<div>An inauspicious start to 2018 to say the least. </div>
<div><span><strong> </strong></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span><strong>'Pain trade'</strong></span></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>US stock futures are up quite strongly at the time of writing, so perhaps tomorrow will be a better trade Down Under. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>But somehow it seems doubtful that stock market nerves are going to be settled for a while yet. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>That's the uncanny tendency of markets to deliver the maximum amount of punishment to the most investors from time to time, especially after a long, strong run.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Myer (ASX: MYR) finished today's trade with a fresh low close of 55 cents. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Shorters should now be wary of the takeover risk. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span></span></div>
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
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Share correction could help Australia property markets

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<p>National residential listings fell by -4.8% to 303,901 in January, as sellers enjoyed the sunshine and trotting off on their summer hols, according to SQM Research. </p>
<p>The monthly drop was driven by Melbourne (-13.9%) and Sydney (-6.9%). </p>
<p><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X7AEY3BIk_M/WnlqPY5kKZI/AAAAAAAAoNM/Y9pH5Jfk3NsUDwG7pDjrLpZnLfxuKmnxQCLcBGAs/s640/sqm1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1376"></p>
<p>Despite the monthly decline, Sydney's listings at 26,150 are at the highest level since January 2009, being some +20.9% higher than a year earlier.<br><br> For the first time in nearly half a decade, Sydney buyers will actually have some choice!</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum Melbourne listings are -11.9% lower year-on-year, while Hobart listings have copped an absolute shellacking. </p>
<p><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0qjmmDauP0/WnmHj7Y11uI/AAAAAAAAoN8/YzsUfjuU2GUoiY2LrrmHG9VhQG7pBTIcACLcBGAs/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1359"></p>
<p>Hobart's housing market is now a buyer's nightmare with just 2,362 listings across the metropolitan area being some -29.1% down from January 2017. </p>
<p>More strong price gains ahead for Hobart housing this year, then. </p>
<p>In most other capital city markets stock listings were relatively flat from a year ago.<br><br> Reported SQM: "Looking forward, with interest rates still at low levels and a possible expansion in lending by the banks, we expect a year of modest prices gains in Sydney and most other capital cities."</p>
<p>Interestingly SQM is quite positive for Sydney's prospects in 2018, certainly more so than most other commentators. </p>
<p>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</p>
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Hobart housing market is a buyer's nightmare: Pete Wargent

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<div>One of the easier trades you'll ever come across, with inflation missing market expectations yet gain.<br><br>Money for jam, here.<br><br>Rate hikes never were on the cards any time soon - as well documented here often enough - but that's even more obvious now with inflation missing (yet again!).<br><br>
</div>
<div>Both of the core measures came in at just +0.4 per cent for the December quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While underlying inflation rate ticked up to +1.9 per cent, the 6-month annualised pace is incredibly weak at just +1.6 per cent.<br><br>Inflation has now missed the 2-3 per cent target on the downside for 9 consecutive quarters, and the pulse looks to have weakened again. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XlzLIPRQpu4/WnEZzIZqnVI/AAAAAAAAoJU/rzj9H0OJ5NUP_8uwQveXyc47vGd8NtzuQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1359"></div>
<p><br>Tradables prices picked up a bit in the December quarter, but were negative over the year.<br><br></p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Kxw_kvG6T8g/WnEZzNT9e7I/AAAAAAAAoJQ/v0T7c3gZZmc6pjln-mpGi6LhcMFX1ryUACLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The headline result of +0.6 per cent for the quarter and +1.9 per cent for the year was pumped by a jump in fuel and fruit prices (someone needs to look up whether avocados and capsicums are fruits or vegetables, I have no idea). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, though, this was once again very weak underlying inflation, though importantly the result was not under the Reserve Bank's forecast for the end of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So that basically means that interest rates will be left on hold for a record length of time, barring a shock of some kind.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents off the mat</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents began to rise moderately again in 2017, mainly thanks to Sydney (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents were negative in the December quarter in Brisbane, while in Perth rents are some 16 per cent below their peak. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J1Hs5n8pTqQ/WnEZzEsmQuI/AAAAAAAAoJY/eC-Oyr-Y9sAcEVWZFcCAcaZ0rol-BOElQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><br>Sydney rents (+52 per cent) have doubled the of inflation (+27 per cent) over the past decade.</p>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h8w2l0xyyCI/WnEZzng4KmI/AAAAAAAAoJc/fbvJr9MBycYnJXjOM2wyCEImtv1Gv0T_QCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1411"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's models already seemed to suggest that underlying inflation wouldn't get back to the mid-point of the target range at 2.5 per cent for years to come (possibly about 4 years!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now this result has missed market expectations too, for the fifth consecutive quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main takeaway is all the talk of imminent rate hikes was little more than wishful thinking.<br><br>Indeed, given the Reserve Bank's stated mandate, logically either the next move in rates should be down or the economy should returning to full employment.<br><br>Either way, there was little to fear in these numbers for mortgagees and housing market fanatics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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