<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Average loan sizes took a knock back in September 2018, both for investors and owner-occupiers, although the average loan size remained higher than a year earlier (substantially so for first-time buyers), so perhaps this in itself isn't all that surprising under tighter lending conditions.</p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bxxzaICFUWk/W-dWLQiV_iI/AAAAAAAAsyE/LZZIlGnEfz0aTGbUPXMg9XKFHBKyGuutACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bxxzaICFUWk/W-dWLQiV_iI/AAAAAAAAsyE/LZZIlGnEfz0aTGbUPXMg9XKFHBKyGuutACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1380"></a></p>
<p><span>It doesn't matter if you're borrowing at a rate of 4 per cent or even lower today, you'll still be assessed at 7¼ per cent, so there's oodles of headroom, but mortgage processing seems to have become a painstaking process and transaction volumes have crashed.</span></p>
<p><strong>Frozen fever</strong></p>
<p>The weak ABS housing finance figures - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/housing-finance-smashed" target="_blank">see here</a> - don't pick up the full extent of this yet, especially since there are still thousands of apartments settling from off-the-plan purchases, but the apartments pipeline has shrunk quite dramatically of late so the line in the chart below will continue to fall through 2019.</p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NSCHgfvGr1w/W-dWLzhUQGI/AAAAAAAAsyI/2pcJj36ptkwCZXstlXjoC_LxGT9q288eQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NSCHgfvGr1w/W-dWLzhUQGI/AAAAAAAAsyI/2pcJj36ptkwCZXstlXjoC_LxGT9q288eQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1354"></a></p>
<p>It's not all doom and gloom for realtors, or property owners, especially around some of the regional markets. </p>
<p>And the urban services economy is buzzing with people and employment, so some properties with a scarcity value are still faring well with mortgage rates so much lower than they used to be. </p>
<p>There was an auction just across the street from our place <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-pyrmont-129585290" target="_blank">in Sydney yesterday</a> with Cooley's auctioneers reporting a whopping 41 bids and a thumping price tag of $2.675 million, implying that borrowers with equity and of high credit quality are being treated with reverence by increasingly twitchy lenders.</p>
<p>I don't go to Melbourne much unless I have to (kidding lol...I'm down there next week), but the <a href="http://www.catebakos.com.au/sundayblog/the-correlation-between-property-scarcity-and-auction-result/" target="_blank">experts in the know down there</a> will doubtless report a similar story about demand and scarcity value. </p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, many parts of the housing market are being smoked, volumes have been crunched, and they'll be plenty of real estate agents seeking alternative forms of employment in 2019, if they aren't already. </p>
<p>Non-bank lenders have alleviated some of the pressure, though volumes were down here too in September. </p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jCv9kDxCafs/W-deCU2gi2I/AAAAAAAAsyg/sz8G6eOtlV89m1Ty6lnVc_-VnK6LjcHRQCLcBGAs/s1600/Nonbanks.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jCv9kDxCafs/W-deCU2gi2I/AAAAAAAAsyg/sz8G6eOtlV89m1Ty6lnVc_-VnK6LjcHRQCLcBGAs/s640/Nonbanks.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1357"></a></p>
<p>The Treasurer has evidently become a tad agitated, requesting that banks keep their lending channels open to prevent money growth from seizing up more than it already has. </p>
<p>Financial markets haven't been unduly fazed, on the whole, presumably adopting a benign stance in the belief that an engineered slowdown in lending could be relaxed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile bank stock valuations have largely followed international leads through reporting season, following an initial relief rally after the draft Royal Commission report was released. </p>
<p class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I-qru6R6i7Y/W-dg9oi5hMI/AAAAAAAAsys/dsfNvbv7jyYnVcWNF_ebCQEh41_rQwhIACLcBGAs/s1600/CBA2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-I-qru6R6i7Y/W-dg9oi5hMI/AAAAAAAAsys/dsfNvbv7jyYnVcWNF_ebCQEh41_rQwhIACLcBGAs/s640/CBA2.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1338"></a></p>
<p>Finally, spare a thought for those that bought units off-the-plan in some of the big inner-city tower block developments, with settlement valuations often coming in way short of purchase prices as valuers look nervously over their shoulders. </p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Loan sizes trimmed in September: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div id="post-body-8543739889757925821" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Very cagey auction activity in Sydney, with a preliminary clearance rate of only 44.5 per cent (more like somewhere in the thirties come final). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The median auction price of a sold house was well down from a year earlier at $1,285,000, reflecting reduced borrowing capacity (mainly for investors rather than homebuyers). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For units the median price of property sold at auction was up from $900,000 a year earlier to $940,250.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But still very muted activity levels overall.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tdYEYYMIQf4/W8sPXWtFGmI/AAAAAAAAsfQ/itzoovEdQEAk5yPympoK2dMTmfGq0nehACLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_9038.PNG"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tdYEYYMIQf4/W8sPXWtFGmI/AAAAAAAAsfQ/itzoovEdQEAk5yPympoK2dMTmfGq0nehACLcBGAs/s640/IMG_9038.PNG" width="640" height="414" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="1323"></a></div>
<br><div>Melbourne's clearance rate is also now well under 50 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">ALP in the ascendancy</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Coalition roundly punished by the electorate in the Wentworth by-election for their machinations and tanking to a minority government in the process, property market participants will need to weigh up the potential impacts of changes to negative gearing legislation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll post an online workshop on this very subject this week, so keep an eye out for that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uhtiHFK-Yf0/W8sPktoSeKI/AAAAAAAAsfU/zEj4wSRFeeY2T0B-aQ0Vl8ECDHMcaHe5wCLcBGAs/s1600/gavel-3577254_1920.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uhtiHFK-Yf0/W8sPktoSeKI/AAAAAAAAsfU/zEj4wSRFeeY2T0B-aQ0Vl8ECDHMcaHe5wCLcBGAs/s640/gavel-3577254_1920.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div class="post-header"> </div>
<div id="post-body-1417955063392006011" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Tightening</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thanks for the thousand or so Tweets, messages, and pingbacks about record underutilisation and the like - a pleasure as always! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yes, it's a problem.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No, it's not been getting worse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Volume measures - reported quarterly on an original basis - have consistently improved year-on-year since 2014...through 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 year-to-date.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All publicly available information from the ABS:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8PwnBImzULE/W8ogJ9Ym19I/AAAAAAAAse4/wNu6at2drA8ml6ZCrU3QPZTz8kDzBRKOQCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8PwnBImzULE/W8ogJ9Ym19I/AAAAAAAAse4/wNu6at2drA8ml6ZCrU3QPZTz8kDzBRKOQCLcBGAs/s640/ABS1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1322"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yes, there is more work to be done (literally so in this case!).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank has noted the same patterns, but still believes that the unemployment rate is the key measure, and that's at the lowest level since 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No, this won't be reported in left-leaning media<em>, </em>nor for that matter whichever 'recession' blogs you may care to mention.<br><br><em>C'est tout. </em>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cheers!<br><br>Very low preliminary auction clearance rates this weekend, under 50 per cent for Melbourne, and just 44 per cent for Sydney.<br><br>It'll be a long, slow run into Christmas from here this year. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Auctions fizzle out for 2018

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Total housing finance was lower as expected back in August at $30.67 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, well down from the peak of above $34 billion a year earlier.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia posted some useful insights on household finances, financial stress (or rather the lack of it), and the impact of tighter lending standards on loan sizes.</p>
<p>The RBA doesn't always help itself when citing very old data, but made some handy insights on borrowing capacity, specifically noting how most loans are made significantly below borrowing capacity.</p>
<p>In the surveyed figures only about 13 per cent borrowed 90 per cent or more of the maximum amount potentially available, while some two-thirds borrowed only 70 per cent or less of their capacity (thereby implying that tighter lending standards only impact some borrowers).</p>
<p>This was to some extent borne out by the housing finance data, with average loan sizes having continued to rise for owner-occupiers to be significantly higher than a year earlier, including in all three of the most populous states.</p>
<p>The borrowers most likely to be materially impacted by tighter lending standards include portfolio investors, and this is also reflected in the totals for investment loans.</p>
<p>The monthly trend result for investment loans has fallen from $14 billion at the 2015 peak to $10 billion, suggesting that the best performing properties are likely to be those actively sought by homebuyers (and the worst, investment units designed primarily for leasing).</p>
<p>More interest-only loans were reset in the third quarter.</p>
<p>Non-banks have been picking up more business, as expected.</p>
<p>With construction loans and the number of new dwellings financed now in decline new supply will be dropping off in time.</p>
<p>First homebuyers continued to account for about 18 per cent of new home loans, partly driven by incentives.</p>
<p><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Housing finance squeezed in August: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest available ABS figures show Australian capital city house and apartment prices 1.4 per cent below their December 2017 peak, albeit they've actually increased in Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide, and Hobart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ya6Qb4aMVDo/W7zbQNm3zeI/AAAAAAAAsTE/y8JxatkGg3w13NZvQs7m5BCv0gMbGAgKQCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1394"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>One market - Sydney - did experience a wild buying frenzy in the first quarter of 2017, forcing some (required) action from the regulator, since which time house prices have declined by 4 per cent and apartment prices 3 per cent on the ABS index, with further declines set to follow in H2 2018.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was an agog observer at some of those Q1 2017 Sydney auctions, and concluded at the time that the successful frenzied bidders could only be cash buyers or downsizers, as there's no way the bank vals could've passed otherwise. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2ntZXNGLaWs/W7zbQJSQIGI/AAAAAAAAsTI/BZ1aa3jjXJMq3wxKbudU9W-oJmswhO2vwCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1459"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Very few leveraged buyers would've bought in that narrow window before the froth was blown off, then, but if there's a cohort that will feel the pain of the market responding the tighter lending standards signal it's off-the-plan buyers of new CBD apartments. </div>
<div>
<br>Although not overly familiar with Western Sydney I also witnessed some wild prices being paid for weatherboard renovators and fibro shacks, although all that seems to have calmed down now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</body></html>

Australian housing off the peaks: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Years ago I lived up in Darwin.</p>
<p>It's a cool place - at least figuratively, if not literally - and certainly very different from the sometimes drab sameness of suburban life in the big smoke.</p>
<p>One of the things I liked about it was how almost everyone turns out when there's an event in town, such the V8 Supercars and INXS playing live (or whatever). </p>
<p>Mindil Beach Sunset Markets quite rightly attract a buzzing crowd every weekend too.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the National Parks of Kakadu and Litchfield are a must-see-to-believe, especially in the Big Wet (although most Aussies talk of there being two seasons - wet and dry - Kakadu's traditional owners recognise six different seasons, understanding the subtle transitions between them). </p>
<p>The odd earthquake aside, Darwin has the best winter climate of any city I've experienced, perfect dry heat in the low 30s all day every day, and never a cloud to be seen.</p>
<p>The summer weather, on the other hand, can range from harsh humidity to downright brutal and Cyclonic. </p>
<p>Although I love the place, I think it would be fair to say that a lack of diversity of choice is a net negative for the Top End, including within the labour force. </p>
<p>There were stacks of jobs in resources and in the public sector during my time up north, but not very much else. </p>
<p>Employment rates and full-time salaries are high, and official unemployment rates remain very low.</p>
<p>But the mining boom years have faded and people are steadily drifting back where they came from.<br><br> Actually, not that steadily now...quite quickly!</p>
<p>I also recall simple things like going for a takeaway or a coffee being phenomenally expensive, although for all I know maybe that's changed as the mining sector has cooled. </p>
<p><strong>From boom to bust</strong></p>
<p>From 2003 dwelling prices soared relentlessly in Darwin for a decade, rising by <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/aussie-housing-prices-roll-over-in" target="_blank">more than 180% </a>by the middle of 2014, by far the biggest increase of any of Australia's 8 capital cities over that period. </p>
<p>Since the peak of the resources construction boom time prices have dropped back by 18%, including by 6% over the 2018 financial year alone. </p>
<p>During the boom years thousands of Aussies were relocating from interstate up to the Top End lured by the high wages on offer.</p>
<p>But although the sector experienced a second wind post-financial crisis as China stimulated its economy, even the mighty $54 billion (hello overruns!) Inpex/Ichthys LNG project hasn't been enough to stem to the inevitable downturn.</p>
<p>And now the NT is losing residents interstate in droves, with more than 3,500 upping sticks on a net basis over the year to March 2018. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UgdR-OAUOdY/W6f2q74OalI/AAAAAAAAsDg/jmUlCLdlbjYUkkQQ-iR_IUK6LAK2lntLwCLcBGAs/s1600/NT.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UgdR-OAUOdY/W6f2q74OalI/AAAAAAAAsDg/jmUlCLdlbjYUkkQQ-iR_IUK6LAK2lntLwCLcBGAs/s640/NT.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1303"></a></p>
<p>With life expectancy increasing, you typically see more births than deaths these days, so the population of Australia increases naturally even without its prevailing strong immigration program.  </p>
<p>But in the NT the outflow of residents interstate is overwhelming both net overseas migration and the natural increase, to the extent that the population of the territory has actually declined by 1,000 persons over the past six months to 246,700. </p>
<p>There are few weaker dynamics for a housing market than an outright decline in the population, if sustained. </p>
<p>No doubt the local authorities will be putting in place incentives to entice families to move up north. </p>
<p>In short, arguably no state or territory presently has a more concerning range of metrics in its economy or housing market. </p>
<p><strong>In arrears</strong></p>
<p>Last week I looked at how each of the most populous states is faring with regards to 30+ day <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/is-mortgage-stress-at-record-highs" target="_blank">mortgage arrears</a>.</p>
<p>In short, not great in Western Australia, pretty comfortable elsewhere. </p>
<p>Let's now consider the other four states and territories.</p>
<p>As you might expect the NT had the highest rate of prime and non-conforming 30+ day arrears at 2.67% as at July 2018, although this had declined just a little over the preceding two months of available figures from 2.82%. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rvAjhgRkFvc/W6gIxt_GYhI/AAAAAAAAsDs/edpctyzujWY88YikjxsPXwprdIMDiPkCgCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rvAjhgRkFvc/W6gIxt_GYhI/AAAAAAAAsDs/edpctyzujWY88YikjxsPXwprdIMDiPkCgCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1389"></a></p>
<p>Elsewhere arrears rates were reasonably low in South Australia at 1.50% following a marked improvement, very low in thriving Tasmania at 1.31%, and extremely low in the Australian Capital Territory at 0.74%. </p>
<p>Generally mortgage arrears are a little higher than a year earlier across the board, despite falling unemployment rates, in part due to interest-only mortgages being reset.</p>
<p>Hopefully the NT can turn itself around soon! </p>
<p><em><strong>PETE WARGENT </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Bottom falls out of Darwin in the Top End: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Job vacancies surged to record highs in both New South Wales (82,400) and Victoria (72,000) last month as those states get set to enjoy an extraordinary hiring boom.</p>
<p>There were broad-based gains across a raft of industries, including professional and technical services, financial and insurance services, healthcare and social assistance, mining, construction, accommodation and food, transport, postal and warehousing, arts and recreational, administrative and support roles, education, and more. </p>
<p>The ongoing resurgence in the mining sector helped to lift job vacancies in Western Australia (27,600) to the highest level in half a decade, while Queensland (35,100) and South Australia (11,900) have improved significantly over the past couple of years. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6geqbjFj3UA/W6yM3FQR4AI/AAAAAAAAsGE/54OOUZjxE14_ja7T2vU30Z1_XN4AB1z4wCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6geqbjFj3UA/W6yM3FQR4AI/AAAAAAAAsGE/54OOUZjxE14_ja7T2vU30Z1_XN4AB1z4wCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1376"></a></p>
<p>The Tasmanian economy is also firing, with the Northern Territory potentially the one serious laggard. </p>
<p>The trend in private sector vacancies scorched more than 20% higher over the year, while the trend annual increase in all sectors was 19.3%, taking the total number of vacancies to the highest ever level at 240,900. Goodness!</p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gdCGqYzu_-I/W6yM3BmmiBI/AAAAAAAAsGI/dMb4fYx8X9srOOEhSXW_JYIocugEDvWIACEwYBhgL/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gdCGqYzu_-I/W6yM3BmmiBI/AAAAAAAAsGI/dMb4fYx8X9srOOEhSXW_JYIocugEDvWIACEwYBhgL/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1357"></a></p>
<p><strong>More hiring ahead</strong></p>
<p>There will be some half-hearted attempts to talk down the result by the Opposition, but the facts don't lie: at under 3% the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy now has a two-handle for the first time since the mining boom...which is surely great to see.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56f7SXAgf4Q/W6yP0fiWpbI/AAAAAAAAsGY/8jK0R-zOCSkuox3KTC6QpuiIIm_IkvujACLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56f7SXAgf4Q/W6yP0fiWpbI/AAAAAAAAsGY/8jK0R-zOCSkuox3KTC6QpuiIIm_IkvujACLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1341"></a></p>
<p>Of course, the labour force has expanded significantly too as discouraged workers come back into the fold alongside record high female participation (the rise in dual income households being an under-appreciated boon for housing markets).</p>
<p>But even accounting for this the figures point to an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate towards 5%, and lower still for New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RrYk-jXZNc0/W6yM3I7DnPI/AAAAAAAAsGA/aKvYfIpUEkIpVVyiFjZtw7Wub3DVim-DgCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RrYk-jXZNc0/W6yM3I7DnPI/AAAAAAAAsGA/aKvYfIpUEkIpVVyiFjZtw7Wub3DVim-DgCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1384"></a></p>
<p><strong>Hirin' now!</strong></p>
<p>Overall, this release was very positive news, with the economy continuing to improve in the two most populated states, and the resources states generally now on the up too.</p>
<p>All this means that Australia has never had as many jobs to be filled as it does right now.</p>
<p>Good stuff.</p>
<hr>
<p>The Hometrack UK 20 Cities House Price Index increased by a further 3.9% over the year to August 2018. </p>
<p>It's been a wild week of bickering for Australian housing market commentary thanks to yet another (now-traditional) <em>60 Minutes </em>beat-up.<br><br> But in the background the fundamentals of the economy quietly continue to improve: exports, tourism, government revenues and the Budget balance, hiring, engineering construction, and so on (resulting in a risk rating upgrade to AAA neutral). </p>
<p>One of the neat things about our mortgage broker liaison is that since brokers take 'snapshots' in time, we can take a mortgage application from today and re-run it against the lending standards of yesteryear.</p>
<p>While the results do vary quite a bit, typically a home buyer applicant might see their borrowing capacity cut by about 10% from where things were a year ago due to tightened lending standards, while for some portfolio investors the equivalent figure can be much greater.<br><br> In fact, many portfolio investors simply won't be able to borrow at all in the present environment. </p>
<p>On its own this probably won't have as big an impact on the housing market as some people think (cf. the United Kingdom, where tighter mortgage lending criteria have failed to stop house prices from rising to fresh highs in nominal terms).</p>
<p>Firstly, that's because home buyers don't always borrow the maximum amount permissible.</p>
<p>And secondly, it's because most investors don't own more than one or two properties - thus portfolio investors are only one small part of the pie, albeit an important one at the margin.<br><br> In fact, the average loan size is still being written at or around record highs, but in lower volumes now.</p>
<p>ANZ updated its somewhat more sober house price forecasts today, expecting prices to decline by just 2% in 2019 - a mere 20-fold improvement on the lame<em> 60 Minutes</em> offering - with a market peak-to-trough fall for Sydney and Melbourne expected of no more than 10%. </p>
<p>ANZ also noted that it was more upbeat for the housing market prospects of Brisbane, Adelaide, and Canberra, as well as many of Australia's regional housing markets. </p>
<p>Looking forward, the sheer strength of the hiring figures makes it hard to disagree with that assessment. </p>
<p><em><strong>PETE WARGENT </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Expect an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER</strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor credit plumbs lows</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The crackdown on investor credit growth has been ruthlessly effective since 2015, the 12-month growth rate falling from 10.8 per cent to the lowest level on record in August 2018, according to the latest Reserve Bank financial aggregates.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w8yO-BOCDk4/W7EvndY7C0I/AAAAAAAAsI4/RZSfkmG55FAyiPY7VMSuMDHult0HfjSSQCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w8yO-BOCDk4/W7EvndY7C0I/AAAAAAAAsI4/RZSfkmG55FAyiPY7VMSuMDHult0HfjSSQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1405"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>With the Royal Commission Interim Report finally and conveniently landing just before the long weekend, the major banks will be relieved to see that there'll be no heavy-handed regulation coming their way, and Treasury quite clearly keen to avoid any further tightening of household credit. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the 10 per cent cap on investor credit growth is now removed there's plenty of headroom for investment lending to pick up from here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vKuBWpIIMPg/W7EyAdYRs8I/AAAAAAAAsJM/UQhUB6tlvXM2NRBL_3iQaAqta7w9xSZMACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vKuBWpIIMPg/W7EyAdYRs8I/AAAAAAAAsJM/UQhUB6tlvXM2NRBL_3iQaAqta7w9xSZMACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1392"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some bogus claims last week that Westpac is 'calling in' risky investor loans via a mythical letter.<br><br>Perhaps the letter in question was dated April 1, but a thousand posts on the gossip forums and multiple global headlines later, it transpired that one tiny fragment of evidence was missing - a copy of the fabled letter itself - before unsurprisingly Westpac finally got around to stating that no such action had been taken. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Chasing business again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>If anything, the major banks will now be looking to attract new business from housing market investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Don't take my word for it, by the way.<br><br>Instead, take Westpac itself as an example since we're on the subject, who won't waste any time in hitting up the investor market now the Interim RC Report has been issued by immediately bringing back its refinance rebate, effective today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, as soon as everyone's had a chance to recover from the Grand Final double-header weekend, brokers will kick off this week by swamping customer inboxes with a refinance rebate blitz.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac will re-introduce a rebate offer of $1,250 for every standalone property loan refinanced. So, for example, a client that refinances 10 properties to Westpac can qualify for $12,500 in rebates, and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The loans must be <em>de minimis</em> $250,000 to qualify for the deal with the rebates to be deposited into the loan account within a couple of months from settlement, while brokers can seek additional pricing off the packaged rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, eligible new investment property or owner-occupier buyers may receive 200,000 to 500,000 Velocity reward points per loan, for loans above $250,000 and $1,000,000 respectively. For some context a $60 tank of fuel at BP costs about 10,000 points, so this is also a non-trivial incentive.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Doesn't sound much like they're chasing investors away to me, but alas I'll never jag a global headline with such a middling observation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

Banks set to give chase for investors: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>There's an old tradition when it comes to job numbers that goes something like this: if the numbers are crap we're doomed; and if the numbers are good then they must be wrong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The technical term for this is <em>confirmation bias</em>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever this month's <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/09/enormous-jobs-growth-in-nsw" target="_blank">booming jobs numbers</a> were treated with anything from scepticism to outright derision.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And yet the solid results have kept on coming, especially in the two most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's another bias that tends to impact people: when things have been bad, they expect bad things to continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And quite understandably we're seeing a lot of this in relation to weak private sector wages growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, soft nominal wage price growth has been around since 2015, so it's becoming quite hard to imagine that pay packets could soon begin to swell again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But take note, because in some states this may be about to change...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Private sector wages to lift</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it never seems to get reported anywhere, I've shown <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/statistical-buggery" target="_blank">several times before</a> that while the underutilisation <strong><em>rate </em></strong>is high, in volume measures terms things have been very steadily improving for the past few years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>That is to say, lots of people still want more hours of work, but the numbers of extra hours wanted has been declining over the past four years.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s1600/UU.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1YQRG8zAXOg/W51tO98q9RI/AAAAAAAAr6M/vjMLPeIRSGQWCmjRozgEk1kmQtCf41EOACLcBGAs/s640/UU.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1355"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where is wages growth going to show up first?</div>
<div>
<br>The answer is Victoria, with construction firing up across the state <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/07/state-of-victoria-getting-under" target="_blank">on an unprecedented scale</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s1600/VIC.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UwNPSL_X5r4/W51uLZYH0sI/AAAAAAAAr6U/DSEyyKW3gQ0gBKzC7K9tuLxpeXKi0KoPACLcBGAs/s640/VIC.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1402"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And sure enough this week's figures showed that the underutilisation rate in Victoria has dived from a seasonally adjusted peak of 16.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent, with the trend pointing straight down. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>If you listen to the brilliant Business Insider <em>Devils &amp; Details</em> podcasts you'd be well across the following point thanks to the awesome deep-dive analysis of Justin Smirk at Westpac.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Even allowing for potentially rogue seasonally adjusted figures, the trend improvement points to private sector wages growth in Victoria returning to 3<span>½</span> per cent in due course. </span></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcFqWNH18Q8/W52J62RyndI/AAAAAAAAr6k/tu5-dobkPmcAaQNOa42LmWHMsPB3W6ozgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1331"></a></div>
</div>
<div>The recent improvement in New South Wales has been a little shallower, but the trend is quite similar, and in fact the unemployment rate in the state is now down to just 4.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. </div>
<p> </p>
<div>Here's the paradox of immigration: of course, it adds to the supply of labour, but it also creates demand in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, as Smirk has demonstrated previously, the underutilisation in the labour force has not been behaving in a way consistent with it being solely caused by immigration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And these numbers confirm that he's right, with the tightening labour markets being those where most immigrants are heading to.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The numbers in Victoria and New South Wales keep on improving.<br><br>This certainly won't stop the calls for lower immigration, of course, or indeed the predictions of a recession, but these numbers suggest that wages growth should pick up from here. </div>
</body></html>

Wages growth in NSW and Victoria is coming: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OK, first things first. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am indeed a so-termed vested interest: I would like to see full employment, stronger wages and household income growth, the Aussie economy growing at least at trend or ideally above trend, and I don't want to see the housing market getting zinged unnecessarily. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yep, you got me on that one. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With these formalities out of the way, I saw APRA's latest ADI exposures today described as 'red alert lending data', very 'concerning', a 'loosening' of lending standards, that should be 'ringing alarm bells' to APRA due to lenders 'breaking their own rules', among various other remarks (source: Digital Finance Analytics). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the record, while blog-flaming isn't really my bag, I must wholeheartedly disagree on each and every point!<br><br>Whatevs, I'll post a few deets and you can make your own mind up...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stock of IO loans plunges</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, the flow of new interest-only (IO) loans in Q2 2018 was a meagre 16.6 per cent of residential term loans, absolutely miles below the initially proposed cap of 30 per cent (and a world apart from the 45.6 per cent record high of Q2 2015). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With far fewer loans written overall from a year earlier in spite of a strong increase in the Aussie population, this represented a modest increase in percentage terms from the preceding quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the actual number of interest-only loans was some 52 per cent lower than in the corresponding quarter of the prior year - and almost 70 per cent lower than the number written at the peak of IO lending in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A 'loosening'? Hardly.<br><br>But even if more IO loans were to be written henceforth I personally don't believe that would be <span>a bad thing.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The last thing<span> we need <span>is $½ trilli</span>on of IO</span> mortgages being reset with undue haste - unless you actually want to see the housing market get stiffed, which of course many people do - and some breathing space would surely be welcomed by a portion of existing IO borrowers. </span></div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tFVWEE8Ibxg/W5kafR9EsAI/AAAAAAAAr3M/i525R8a2Vz0RTipYynJRdMnqcv0vtlPHwCLcBGAs/s640/IO1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Regardless of your views on that, there was another enormous decline in the stock of IO loans in the June quarter, with IO loan balances outstanding now having plunged some $119 billion lower over the past five quarters. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of IO loans outstanding through June 2018 was thus by some margin at the lowest level across the entire data series at about 29 per cent, down from close to 40 per cent in late 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Note that these numbers only run to the end of the 2018 financial year; at the current trajectory the share of IO loans will likely be around 26.9 per cent by the end of this month, a figure that was truly unthinkable only last year, and the lowest level in decades. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VvYLsKyPgs4/W5kafal-H0I/AAAAAAAAr3c/Z0gyForrg7IQlC8ki_SD-5ePZVQnPQW_wCEwYBhgL/s640/Io3.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1367"></div>
<p><br><span>A loosening...very droll.</span><br><br></p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Less and less and less high-LVR lending</span></strong><br><br>Secondly, in relation to DFA's 'red alert' on lending standards, the loan-to-value (LVR) ratios on new loans have been tightening incrementally for the better part of half a decade now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loan volumes are down, there was a miniscule change in Q2 for the share of new loans written at 80 per cent LVR or above, while loans written above 90 per cent LVR or above have never been as low as they are today since the available records began.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'Red alert'? You must be having a giraffe, surely - we've literally never seen lending standards remotely like it!</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-myr13CMquKE/W5kafSp7IYI/AAAAAAAAr3I/yRholEdAVYs5ZbZ6AiRGWIEbZtAQeLy0QCLcBGAs/s640/IO2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, low-doc and other non-standard loans are also tracking at the lowest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fourthly, the quarterly flow of new investment loans plunged by the best part of $5 billion year-on-year, so how you conclude a sudden loosening of standards from that I can't fathom (automatic red card for anyone directly comparing volumes from Q1 to Q2). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And fifthly, a word that is devilishly hard to spell at the best of times, DFA cites loans approved outside serviceability, noting that these should be ringing 'alarm bells' to the regulator.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fair suck of the sauce bottle, mate, but this almost certainly represents a timing issue and reflects <em><strong>tighter</strong> </em>lending standards, not looser.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can't tell me with a straight face that banks are blithely waving through marginal or borderline applications and then willingly reporting them as such in the current lending environment. Not happenin'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'I could go on...', as Jon Culshaw's impersonation of Russell Crowe might drily observe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due apologies for the apparent curtness, but this stuff has a tendency to be uncritically reported by rote, so someone needs to chime in with a few of these inconvenient actualities.<br><br>Much obliged. As you were :-)</div>
</body></html>

Interest-only loans running at 70 per cent down on 2015 peak: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div id="post-body-5895429006463622859" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Across the 2018 financial year the total value of securitised residential mortgages increased by 8.9 per cent to $108.8 billion according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS reported some disaggregation issues within the various classes of securitised assets, but the trend is clear enough, with the total value of assets up by about 8 per cent over the financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The recent increase has been driven by securitised residential mortgages as lending standards have been tightened by the mainstream lenders.  </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W4YZJNGqH3U/W5TZJ9CDhPI/AAAAAAAAr1Q/x6VhRDjMJ1YsT_4T3v6rZ0lQXj6ZBj3qACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W4YZJNGqH3U/W5TZJ9CDhPI/AAAAAAAAr1Q/x6VhRDjMJ1YsT_4T3v6rZ0lQXj6ZBj3qACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1382"></a></div>
<br><div>With major lenders having tightened up lending criteria in the residential space some non-banks have picked up mortgage business, and there has clearly been an increase in securitisation lately. </div>
<div>
<br>While there may be less regulatory oversight, non-bank lending may provide an escape valve for some housing investors having difficulty rolling over an interest-only loan - or for some other non-standard borrowers - which could help to minimise the flow of forced sellers.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Little detail is provided in the corresponding liabilities data, although it is noteworthy that the assets are overwhelmingly owned by Australian resident investors, while asset backed securities issued overseas have decreased as a proportion of total liabilities. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>The wrap</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall the total assets of Aussie securitisers have steadily increased over the 1½ years to June 2018, following a period of half a decade which reflected little change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether more widespread securitisation of residential mortgage assets increases or decreases risk in the system depends upon your perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The total value of securitised residential mortgages is still tracking only at about half of the levels seen at the June 2007 peak - and as a share of total residential mortgages is markedly lower - but arguably this in itself says little about the quality of the underlying assets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</div>
</body></html>

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Pete Wargent

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News