Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Economy

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The OECD’s <a href="https://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/going-for-growth-australia-2015.pdf" target="_blank">Going for Growth report</a> released this week is a good reminder of why Tony Abbott wants to be remembered as “the infrastructure Prime Minister”.
The OECD argues addressing infrastructure service shortfalls will help productivity performance and sustainable growth, and in the 2014-15 Australian federal budget, <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/glossy/infrastructure/html/index.htm" target="_blank">spending on infrastructure</a> was planned to increase substantially, compared to the last budget of the Rudd government.
The focus carried through to the Brisbane G20 meeting. It saw a commitment to use infrastructure spending, along with other measures such as free trade agreements, as a lever to improve productivity and help deliver the additional 2% of GDP growth over five years targeted by the G20.
How is Australia performing?
Australian contributions to the G20 target, in terms of infrastructure investment, are outlined in the <a href="https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/g20_comprehensive_growth_strategy_australia.pdf" target="_blank">Comprehensive Growth Strategy</a>.
Two proposals are highlighted. First, there is a commitment  “to achieve better project prioritisation, selection and coordination by providing greater transparency through cost benefit analysis of major projects and improving the operation of Infrastructure Australia (the body that assesses major infrastructure projects). Rigorous appraisal processes will help ensure that high-quality projects that create the most benefit will be prioritised.”
Things have not started well. For example, The 2014-15 budget provides funding for 36 major named infrastructure projects but, as a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201415/Infrastructure">report</a> by the Australian Parliamentary Library notes, only four have been assessed by Infrastructure Australia, and only seven appear anywhere on the priority list.
Sydney’s WestConnex motorway is one of the infrastructure projects named in the budget but not prioritised by Infrastructure Australia. The federal commitment comprises a grant of A$1.5 billion to the New South Wales government, and a A$2 billion concessional loan. In December 2014 the New South Wales Auditor-General reported that the government’s Major Projects Assurance Framework had not been implemented and that, as a consequence, there were deficiencies in the analysis of the risks, cost and benefits of the project. Clearly this falls short of the G20 commitment.
Asset recycling
The second proposal is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/asset-recycling-no-dream-for-hockey-but-efficiency-boost-likely-28802">asset recycling initiative</a>. State governments that sell assets will receive 15% of the net sale proceeds as a grant from the Commonwealth, provided the funds are reinvested in infrastructure. Proposals must pass evaluation and approval before 1 July 2016, with construction to commence before 1 July 2019.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission this week <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/accc_warns_on_asset_recycling_XfHInVjskCpfCIfCm5AdEP" target="_blank">flagged concerns</a> about the scheme, warning of the risk of governments taking action that could lessen competition due to the lure of incentive payments.
At A$5 billion, the initiative accounts for only 10% of federal infrastructure spending commitments over the next ten years. However, the government forecast the incentives it provides will leverage an additional A$33 billion of infrastructure investment, making a major contribution to the proposed boost in infrastructure spending.
Asset privatisation was a central issue in the recent Queensland election. Of the estimated A$37 billion proceeds from the sale of energy and port assets, the Newman government proposed to allocate A$3.4 billion to a “cost of living” fund and A$25 billion to pay off state debt. New infrastructure investment of A$8.6 billion would attract a Commonwealth recycling incentive of A$1.3 billion, making A$9.9 billion in total.
Queensland voters rejected these proposals. Should the same result emerge from the New South Wales election next month the asset recycling initiative will effectively lapse.
An alternative approach
Where investment in long-lived productive infrastructure is involved, attaching the label <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/prime-minister-tony-abbotts-speech-from-the-national-press-club-in-canberra-on-february-2/story-fni0cx12-1227204983604?nk=2ddb61facd9133e0d55d3bac5bbf4287" target="_blank">“intergenerational theft”</a> to government borrowing is clearly misleading – the generations who benefit from the investment also service the debt.
If the asset recycling initiative fails to meet its targets, alternatives are possible. The first requirement would be to live up to the commitment made to the G20 for stringent and transparent project evaluation by Infrastructure Australia. Second, think carefully about ways to improve efficiency in state-owned assets. Then, given that the yield on 21-year bonds is currently less than 3%, the government could pursue its infrastructure agenda by borrowing long-term and investing through the states in the same way as in the past.
Implementation of this strategy would require a more mature political discussion about fiscal deficits, debt, and long-lived infrastructure. Relying on slogans like “debt and deficit disaster” is unlikely to achieve positive outcomes.
Graeme Wells University Associate, School of Economics and Finance at University of Tasmania
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

PM’s infrastructure plan failing growth and cost-benefit goals: Graeme Wells

<html><body>
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment increased in February, a much stronger result than Westpac chief economist Bill Evans had expected.
"It represents the first time since February last year that we have seen a majority (albeit miniscule) of optimists over pessimists," said Evans.
"It is also the highest level of the Index since January last year."
<img src="/images/2015/02/11/westpac-feb-11-one.png" alt="">
Evans suggested the rate cut was not the only reason behind the big boost to confidence.
"Lower petrol prices and a surging sharemarket also appear to have had an impact."
The importance of these last two factors was highlighted by the "surprisingly modest 0.7% increase" in the confidence level of those respondents holding a mortgage – a group that is typically the most sensitive to interest rate changes, much lower than the over all increase of 8% in February.
The index tracking views on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ jumped by 9.7% to reach its highest level since February 2014.
<a href="/images/2015/02/11/westpac-feb-11-two.png" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2015/02/11/westpac-feb-11-two.png" alt=""></a>
Similarly, the index of house price expectations jumped by 6.9% to reach its highest level since September 2014.
Noting the Reserve Bank Board next meets on 3 March, Evans suggested for now, "we are comfortable to maintain our original call for a follow up move in March".
"However we recognize that a perfectly respectable case can be made for the Bank to pause for a month or two to assess developments in the housing market.
"The most important point is that February is not the end of this rate cut cycle with another cut extremely likely over the next three months." Evans concluded.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Confidence up with strong improvement in time to buy dwelling sentiment: Westpac

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The Australian economy is well placed for the medium to long term. But we face risks as we transition back to broad-based growth.
Australia’s resources boom lasted a decade. Iron ore, coal, gas, gold - you name it. If we could dig it up, China was ready to buy it at record prices.
But adapting to a boom is hard. The boom increased demand for the Australian dollar, increasing the exchange rate (which is just the price of an Australian dollar). This hurt non-commodity exporters and led to a two-speed economy. The resource centres of Western Australia and Queensland boomed while the manufacturing and services centres of Melbourne and Sydney hit the wall.
We adapted. It was tough.
However, mining booms are temporary. As exploration and development expands supply, the prices inevitably drop. Our mining boom has ended. We have seen massive falls in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/iron-ore-tipped-to-fall-below-us40-this-year-20150206-138235">iron ore</a>, coal, <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/business/oil-price/60838/oil-price-yo-yo-continues-as-traders-jockey-to-find-bottom">oil</a> and gas prices in recent years. It was fun while it lasted, but the inevitable has occurred and now the Australian economy is adjusting back again.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71427/area14mp/image-20150209-13704-159mbzh.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71427/width668/image-20150209-13704-159mbzh.png" alt=""></a>
It’s good the boom is over
This is a good thing. A mining boom is like a boozy party. Great while it lasts, and it may lead to a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-07/house-passed-in-at-auction-after-million-dollar-price-dive/6077724">short-term hangover</a>. However, so long as our economy can adapt back to the “new normal” of a lower exchange rate and more balanced growth driven by broad trade with our Asian neighbours, the end of the boom will lead to a new period of economic prosperity. The key is adaptability.
The end of the boom doesn’t mean that our earnings from mineral exports are back to 2000 levels. The development of new projects means that we will keep exporting and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-iron-ore-exports-are-still-making-plenty-of-money-for-the-government-2014-12">earning more</a>. Put simply, quantity matters as well as price.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71423/area14mp/image-20150209-13719-f1ta6v.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71423/width668/image-20150209-13719-f1ta6v.jpg" alt=""></a>
Further, as the end of the boom leads to a fall in the Australian dollar, this hurts consumers as the price of imports rise. But Australian companies that compete with imports will find life easier. There will be more growth and jobs in these areas.
Similarly, the drop in the exchange rate helps our non-commodities exporters. Australian farmers, tertiary educators, high-end manufacturers and other service exporters should all have big grins on their faces. They will be expanding over the next few years as the rest of the world finds that they are much cheaper.
So the end of the boom will mean a return to more sustainable, balanced long-term growth across our economy. Asia is still growing and we are still well placed to benefit from that growth.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71424/area14mp/image-20150209-13713-3f98zz.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71424/width668/image-20150209-13713-3f98zz.jpg" alt=""></a>
What are the short-term risks?
The biggest risk is that the federal government will panic. Transition means that unemployment will increase as workers fly-out of the mining centres and move back to the south eastern states. Federal tax revenue will also temporarily fall as profits decrease in the resource sector but are yet to rise in other sectors. This means that there will be an increasing budget deficit. Fortunately, we have low levels of government debt by international standards, interest rates are at historic lows and our government can easily borrow to both cover the deficit and invest in infrastructure that will assist the transition.
Our federal government should not party like it is 2010 again. But there is no budget crisis.
The second biggest risk is that state and federal governments will fail to continue the necessary long-term reform needed in areas such as taxation, health, education, transport and energy. The outcome of the Queensland state election has undermined reform. It shouldn’t. The evidence is clear that reforms, including privatisation, but particularly reforms that sensibly <a href="https://theconversation.com/privatisation-in-australia-as-the-accc-opens-a-can-of-worms-what-are-the-lessons-on-government-ownership-and-regulation-21752">introduce competition</a> where it can work, have benefited people in the states that have had the leadership to push forward.
There is still plenty of <a href="https://www.erawa.com.au/cproot/12778/2/Final%20Report%20-%20Inquiry%20into%20Microeconomic%20Reform%20in%20Western%20Australia.PDF">scope for reform</a>. Congestion charging on urban roads with funds being used to improve public transport, is a no-brainer. Removing impediments to the sharing economy, such as the regulations that protect vested interests but undermine platforms like Uber and Airbnb, will mean better and cheaper choice for families. Requiring government infrastructure projects to have independent cost-benefit analysis will reduce political boondoggles that help marginal electorates but cost the broader community. Moving to real-time pricing in electricity and using smart grids to give consumers more control over their power bills, will reduce energy use and carbon emissions while saving money for households.
There is a long list of reforms that governments should be pursuing. These reforms are necessary to maintain our economic flexibility. But with any reform there will be winners and losers. Governments need to have the guts to implement reforms, but the compassion to reform in a way that protects the most vulnerable in the community.
Finally, our governments need to remember the compact that has underpinned Australia since federation. We do not leave people behind. There has long been a series of transfers, through the grants commission and through the distribution of the GST, from the richer states to the poorer states and from the cities to the bush. These transfers help guarantee that all Australians can gain from long term economic growth. These transfers need to continue. But they also <a href="https://theconversation.com/bandaids-on-broadband-has-turnbull-got-what-it-takes-to-fix-the-nbn-36913">need to be transparent</a>. And states need to remember that <a href="https://economics.com.au/?p=8726">today’s winners can be tomorrow’s losers</a>. The transfers are like a national insurance policy that protect us all.
So, the economic future is looking bright for Australia. Sure, the economic winds have changed. But so long as we can adapt and “change tack”, and governments do not get in the way, the next ten years for Australia are likely to be even better than the last ten.
Stephen King is professor at the Department of Economics at Monash University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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Turning headwinds into tailwinds - the economy can correct course: Stephen King

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At last Monday’s do-or-die Press Club speech Prime Minister Tony Abbott claimed jobs growth in 2014 was triple the rate in 2013, with 4,000 new jobs a week. 
Treasurer Joe Hockey said the same thing on AM on Wednesday, refashioning the figure as 600 new jobs a day.
It’s a claim that seems counterintuitive amid headlines about the PM abandoning as unachievable his pre-election pledge to create a million jobs within five years. Unemployment jumped above 6% last year, the resources bust is on us, and consumer and business confidence has stalled.
A walk-through the figures from the Treasurer’s office confirms the calculations are ridgy-didge, as far as they go, being based on simple averages of the total persons employed column of the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data. The government is only making one debatable assumption: that the labour market performance through 2013 can be properly attributed to the previous government, even though the Coalition was in power for the last three months of the year, while the 2014 stats are credited to the current government. The Treasurer’s office says assuming a three month lag before its policies take effect is perfectly plausible, and let’s not quibble there.
On average in 2013 there were 5,063 jobs created each month, while in 2014 there were 17,823 a month — more than 4,000 a week or 600 a day.
The ABS data doesn’t break out employment by industry sectors but construction is reckoned to be the stand-out performer in jobs growth last year. Given how toppy property markets are looking, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, it would be a brave policymaker who counted on a housing-led recovery in employment continuing on and on — even with lower interest rates.
But if the ABS data is right and jobs growth has tripled, why are we so gloomy about our job prospects and security? One problem with it is the official data fails to take account of population growth, as was highlighted in this <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CC0QFjAB&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Finsidestory.org.au%2Faustralia-today-a-million-new-adults-just-385000-new-jobs&amp;ei=twjUVNTHGaPJmAXX2oI4&amp;usg=AFQjCNFsu1-W8Q3M00TaKp2CXc-WXJJFmA&amp;sig2=E-mbSaUTIv-Bvmh_PvwBfQ">terrific article</a> by former Age economics editor Tim Colebatch. Over the three years to December 2014, the economy created 385,000 new jobs for every million new adults, his analysis shows, well down on the 690,000 new jobs created for every million new people over the past 30 years. Colebatch points at the high immigration rate — particularly employers using 457 visas to employ cheap cooks, for example — and argues the labour market simply can’t generate enough work for everybody.
People are simply dropping out of the workforce. The problem is highlighted in the following chart, which shows that, excepting Tasmania, the ratio of employment to population has tanked since the financial crisis.
<a href="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/employmentpopulation.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-479203" src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/employmentpopulation.jpg" width="513" height="445"></a>
South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon, whose office provided the chart, told Crikey he has railed for years about the official employment figures and queries the government’s jobs claim: “I think that needs to be deconstructed, it needs to be forensically looked at. What percentage of those new jobs is someone working three, six, eight hours a week, particularly given anyone is counted as employed if they work as little as an hour a week?”
Data quality aside, the most pressing question is, given the tough job of transitioning out of the resources boom, where is future jobs growth going to come from? The Treasurer’s office points to “green shoots” such as last month’s ANZ job ad survey, which <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/anz-survey-shows-job-ads-rising-for-seventh-month-in-row/story-e6frg926-1227182042074">showed</a> jobs ads had risen for the seventh month in a row, and this week’s Dunn &amp; Bradstreet business expectations survey for the next quarter, which <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/expectations-surveys-show-business-sector-optimistic-about-employment-20150202-1342fs">shows</a> a jump in the hiring intentions of business for the next quarter.
Unfortunately for the government neither survey, on a close reading, is optimistic. ANZ’s job ads survey was a reliable leading indicator when print dominated, and although it now includes online ads it does not include social fora like LinkedIn, so it is still finding its feet in the digital economy. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan commented: “The good news is that the economy continues to produce new employment opportunities. The bad news is that this has not been quite enough to counteract the flow of new workers into the economy plus the on-going loss of jobs in certain sectors”.
Hogan told Crikey ANZ had revised its forecasts for 2015 down, like most economists and expected unemployment to peak later this year: “We’re expecting jobs growth in certain key services such as real estate, IT and telecommunications and construction.
“The $64,000 question is whether or not broader business services industries can increase their headcount again — banking, accounting and the legal profession have been subdued at best for the last half-decade and they are big employers”.
Headlined “outlook cools”, Dunn &amp; Bradstreet’s survey is also less than confidence inspiring: firstly, although the survey has shown a jump in hiring intentions since the last election, and a big jump in January’s one-month survey, actual hiring has consistently tracked below expectations. Whether the jump in intentions translates into new jobs is unclear.
D&amp;B adviser Stephen Koukoulas told Crikey there was no suggestion we were headed for the precipice: “The labor-intensive parts of economy are retail and construction. Both are doing pretty well. House building and construction is pretty strong, really encouraging, and unlike mining, which is not very labor-intensive. The other one is retail, as we move from the mining boom to the dining boom, if we’re spending more money in cafes and restaurants , that employs a lot of people. So there’s a compositional shift in growth towards those sectors.”
Koukoulas is also not too gloomy about the future of manufacturing: “If you’re a manufacturer and you’ve survived last few years, with the Australian dollar now below US80c and probably staying there, you’re going to start doing well.”
Hockey’s office nominate three industries as source of future jobs growth: financial services, infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing — pointing for example to the Sydney firm that makes RODE microphones, recently <a href="https://www.joehockey.com/media/transcripts/details.aspx?s=621">toured by the Treasurer</a>. The recent free trade agreements will help manufacturers too, Hockey’s office says.
A microphone-led recovery seems unlikely, but niche manufacturing stories are always like that. Most concerning for the likes of Xenophon (and Victorian independent Senator John Madigan, who let rip on submarines on Q&amp;A on Monday) is looming self-inflicted job catastrophes in industries like car manufacturing and shipbuilding, particularly if our next submarine is going to be built offshore.
Says Xenophon: “We are looking at a tsunami of unemployment with the auto sector in next few years. [The subs decision] will have a massive multiplier effect in terms of unemployment.”
Xenophon points to growth industries like food manufacturing, medical technology and backs calls for relief on penalty rates for small businesses in the hospitality sector. ”I think we should be looking in advanced manufacturing, taking head-on the dumping that occurs that kills jobs — we take a very narrow approach to the WTO rules. We need to have a strategic approach to infrastructure, and smart manufacturing. We need to make sure our subs are built here and I think we need to have incubators for SMEs to drive jobs growth — miniature silicon valleys in our capital cities.”
It’s not exactly a comprehensive jobs plan, but it’s better than cutting industry assistance, abolishing the carbon tax and praying — which seems to be the nub of the government’s strategy to date.
This story originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/02/06/where-are-all-these-jobs-abbott-is-supposedly-creating/">Crikey</a>.
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Where are all the jobs Abbott is supposedly creating?

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Investors have been told rent inflation was slowing, consistent with the increase in vacancy rates over recent years, according to the February Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting monetary statement.
The pace of national housing price growth slowed too noticeably in early 2014 but, looking through the volatility, appeared to have changed little since then, the RBA board meeting was told on Tuesday.
"Notwithstanding this, growth of housing prices remained strong over recent months, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney," the minutes said.
"At around 8%, housing price growth remains well above the growth rate of household incomes.
"Survey measures of housing price expectations declined in the December quarter and remain below the levels reached in late 2013.
"Most non-price indicators of housing market activity remain consistent with strong conditions in the established market, which should provide further support to consumption in the near term."
It noted the nationwide rental vacancy rate "has been gradually drifting up since the mid 2000s".
"Accordingly, rental price inflation has slowed, which, combined with strong housing price growth, has resulted in rental yields continuing to fall," the statement read.
HSBC Noted today's official statement from the RBA saw them revise down their GDP growth forecasts to 1.75-2.75% for 2015, from 2-3% previously. Growth is still expected to pick-up in 2016, to 2.75-3.75% (previously 2.50-4%). Underlying inflation is expected to remain around 2.25% in H1 2015, and they continue to expect it to be 2-3% beyond that, in line with their target objective. The statement was generally more down-beat about the pace of the ongoing rebalancing of growth, which appears to have been the reason for this week's rate cut.
The monetary statement noted consistent with the strong growth in housing prices, low interest rates and above-average population growth, there has been considerable growth in dwelling investment, which increased by 7% over the year to the September quarter.
It noted timely leading indicators point to further growth in dwelling investment in the December and March quarters.
"Dwelling approvals, particularly those for higher density homes, have stayed at a high level recently.
"Loan approvals for new dwellings increased by 5% over the year to November and the number of first home owner grants paid for new dwellings has continued to trend higher, increasing by 22% over the past year.
"Inflation in the housing-related components of the CPI remained moderate overall in the December quarter.
"Inflation in the price of new dwellings remained above the average of recent years, consistent with strong residential building activity.
"The RBA's liaison suggests that the upswing in residential construction activity has allowed some builders to increase margins over the past year or so.
"Combined with an increase in the cost of building materials, this has contributed to higher inflation in the prices for new dwellings.
"In contrast, rents inflation remained slow in the quarter, consistent with the increase in vacancy rates over recent years. Utility prices increased slightly, after falling in the September quarter due to the repeal of the carbon price."
The statement offered forecasts for consumption assuming that wealth effects continue to operate as they have done in the past and that there will be a further gradual decline in the household saving ratio.
"Consumption growth could be stronger than anticipated if conditions in housing markets strengthen, particularly in parts of the country that have seen less growth in house prices of late.
"If this is associated with a significant increase in leverage or a decline in lending standards, it could pose some risk to macroeconomic stability.
"However, another possibility is that ongoing buoyant conditions in housing markets will have less of an effect on consumption than previously.
"In particular, in recent years fewer households appear to have been utilising the increase in the value of their dwelling to increase their leverage or trade up.
"This possibility would imply that the saving ratio will be higher and consumption growth a little lower than expected based on historical experience.
"In addition, there is significant uncertainty around the size of the effect that the large changes in commodity prices, particularly oil prices, will have on household saving and consumption behaviour."
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Investors warned national rental vacancy was drifting: RBA February statement

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GUEST OBSERVATION
This week’s Reserve Bank interest rate move surprised virtually everyone, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%, yet another historic low.
Despite Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey suggesting the rate cut means “the shackles are off the Australian economy,” the cut is unlikely on its own to kick Australia’s GDP growth rate back to trend level. But with a little help from friends offshore and a light touch from APRA, the rate cut just might work.
Let us review for a moment how a lower cash rate can boost the economy – the so-called “transmission channels” for monetary policy. There are three. First, rate cuts change asset prices, including foreign exchange rates. Second, rate cuts should reduce the cost of capital, all else being equal. Third, rate cuts should increase the availability of credit from banks’ balance sheets. All three elements are important considerations in yesterday’s move.
Asset prices moved according to expectations, with the ASX rallying 1.4% on the news. The main game, however, was the exchange rate.
Pushing the dollar down
Many commentators have focused their attention on the AUD-USD exchange rate, which fell by 1.5 cents immediately after the rate cut. Was this the RBA’s main target? The AUD had already depreciated significantly against the US dollar, with the AUD-USD as of 2 February already 15% below its average over the first half of 2014. At AUD/USD0.7769 as of 2 February, the benchmark rate of exchange was very near the level that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens had indicated was desirable.
What had not moved perhaps as much as the RBA might have liked was the trade-weighted index, which measures the AUD against a basket of the exchange rates of our major trading partners. The TWI had declined only 10% relative to its average rate across the first half of 2014, making the AUD the unwilling strong man in a world of “currency wars” depreciation. The ECB’s decision in late January to engage in its own version of quantitative easing - which sent the AUD back up above the AUD-EUR0.70 level, may have been one of the straws that broke the camel’s back and contributed to this early rate decision.
As of Tuesday, the TWI had dropped to below 63 for the first time since July 2009. This is welcome relief. But it can only last so long as other major central banks outside the US co-operate by avoiding further easing of their own.
What is likely to prove more important - and more durable - is a lower cost of capital and the potential to spur investment through greater availability of banking credit to the economy. Here, too, the RBA needs help – from the Abbott government and APRA.
Getting credit flowing to business
There is not a great deal of evidence to date that a lower cost of capital – with a historically low 2.5% cash rate already in place for a year – has induced an increase in investment in the Australian economy outside the property sector. Capital expenditure by firms has been largely limited to the resources sector, and is now petering out.
The household savings rate remains high, while the debt-to-asset ratio has fallen. This suggests households are electing to increase their equity in current investments rather than using leverage to expand their investment portfolios.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71164/area14mp/image-20150205-28601-3e6u3t.png">
Within the property sector, credit continues to grow at a relatively rapid pace, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-how-exposed-are-australian-banks-30272" target="_blank">credit growth</a> for investment properties far outpacing the expansion of credit for other purposes - whether household or business. In 2014, credit to purchase investment properties appears to have accounted for about 35% of all new credit creation in the economy. No wonder critics worry that the RBA’s rate cut has the potential to stoke excessive leverage in the property market.
The question becomes whether there are other triggers that can be pulled to encourage more credit to flow into other types of investment in the Australian economy. Ideally, that would be a renewed expansion of business credit to support increased capital expenditure, and eventually business activity and employment.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71165/area14mp/image-20150205-28578-egik59.png">
The RBA cannot dictate that looser monetary policy be directed toward the business sector. But the Abbott government and APRA have in hand the tool to provide a not-so-gentle nudge.
Will the government act on Murray’s advice?
We are merely weeks away from the deadline for final feedback to the <a href="https://fsi.gov.au/" target="_blank">Financial System Inquiry</a>, led by David Murray. A key recommendation of the inquiry was to raise banks’ average internal ratings-based risk weights on mortgages to narrow the difference between the mortgage risk weights used by authorised deposit-taking institutions and the “standard” risk weights used by other institutions.
In shorthand, this recommendation would force the Big 4 banks to hold more capital against their mortgage books, making the mortgage-writing business relatively more expensive (and less attractive) from a capital perspective.
This recommendation makes sense. The post-2008 boom in investment property has been driven in part by investor demand – but also in part by the Big 4 banks being willing underwriters of residential real estate. This willingness has in turn been driven, at least in part, by the regulatory setting that makes mortgages one of the least capital-intensive – and therefore cheapest to produce – lending products in the Australian market.
Reducing this regulatory incentive to lend into the property market holds the potential to increase the appetite among the Big 4 for other types of lending, including business credit. It is a reform that the Abbott government and APRA can hang their hat on in 2015.
Amy Auster is deputy director at Australian Centre for Financial Studies.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. 
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AmyAuster-LX8uHdhTjE

How to multiply the rate cut impact and unshackle the economy: Amy Auster

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Ever since commodity prices and the mining investment boom peaked three or four years ago there has been a constant chorus of doom regarding the Australian economy: the reversal of the mining boom will knock the economy into recession, house prices will crash and banks will tumble.
This view was particularly prevalent amongst foreign commentators who seemed to think that resource extraction was the only thing Australians do.
While this tale of doom has not happened, the economy has been a bit lacklustre: growth has been sub-par, wages growth has fallen to record lows, unemployment has drifted up and confidence readings have remained poor.
Against this background, the RBA has rightly cut interest rates again.
Interest rates and the economy
There are good reasons for the RBA to be cutting rates further:
<ul class="link-list">
<li>Growth is too low, running at around 2.75% through last year, which is well below potential (of around 3-3.25%) and the level needed to prevent a rise in unemployment. 
</li>
<li>Confidence is subdued, having well and truly given up the post 2013 Federal election boost.</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-1.PNG" alt="Confidence remains subdued">
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital
Partly reflecting this, consumers have started to become more focused on paying down debt again, which is a sign of increasing caution and will threaten spending if sustained.
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-2.PNG" alt="Australia's becoming a bit more cautious again">
Source: Westpac/Melbourne Institute, AMP Capital
<ul class="link-list">
<li>Prices for iron ore and energy have collapsed resulting in a bigger hit to national income than expected a year ago.</li>
</ul>
 
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-3.PNG" alt="Iron ore and the terms of trade has fallen more than expected">
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital
<ul class="link-list">
<li>Outside the US the predominant trend globally is still towards monetary easing and this is putting pressure on the RBA. Massive quantitative easing programs in Europe and Japan are forcing smaller countries to ease unless they want to see their currencies go higher. This should really be characterised as “easing wars” as opposed to “currency wars”. To the extent it is forcing monetary easing around the world, it adds to confidence that sustained deflation can be avoided. Australia is not immune. As the RBA wanted to see a continued broad based decline in the value of the $A it had to re-join the easing party lest the Australian dollar rebounded. Our interest rates are still high globally. 
</li>
<li>Finally, benign inflation provides flexibility for the RBA.</li>
</ul>
The main risk in cutting rates again is that it further inflates the residential property market. However, strong property price gains are largely concentrated in Sydney and the RBA sees this as more of an issue for the prudential regulator, APRA.
Overall, we see the RBA’s cut as justified and, given that there is rarely just one move, we expect another 0.25% cut taking the cash rate to 2% in the months ahead.
Reasons for optimism
However, it’s not that I am bearish on the economy. Rather it makes sense for the RBA to be taking out some insurance to make sure growth holds up and improves. There are several reasons for optimism that growth will improve:
<ul class="link-list">
<li>Borrowing rates are at generational lows. This is bad for bank depositors but the latest rate cut will save someone with a $300,000 mortgage roughly an additional $15 a week. In total Australian households have $850 billion in bank deposits but owe $2,050 billion in debt so the household sector is a net beneficiary of lower interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-4.PNG" alt="Record or near record low interest rates">
Source: RBA, Bloomberg, AMP Capital
<ul class="link-list">
<li>The fall in the Australian dollar is removing a major drag on growth. It needs to go down some more but this is very positive for sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, higher education, services, farming and mining. 
</li>
<li>The collapse in oil prices has delivered huge savings to businesses and households. If petrol prices hold around current levels it means the average household will save around $19 a week from mid last year on their petrol bill.</li>
</ul>
 
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-5.PNG" alt="Weekly petrol bill for a typical Australian household">
Source: AMP Capital
<ul class="link-list">
<li>Stronger export volumes from completed resource projects will provide a partial offset to lower commodity prices.</li>
</ul>
Overall, we see growth picking up gradually as the year progresses to a 3-3.5% pace through next year, but the RBA’s latest rate cut and one more to come provide confidence that this will occur.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Implications for investors
There are several implications for investors. First bank term deposit rates are becoming even less attractive and will remain low at least into next year. As a result, there is an ongoing need to consider alternative sources of yield and return.
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-6.PNG" alt="Not a lot of value in Australian term deposit rates">
Source: RBA, AMP Capital
Second, remain cautious on the Australian dollar. While the Australian dollar is nearly back to the US$0.75 level that marks fair value on the basis of relative prices, past experience tells us it can overshoot and it hasn’t fallen nearly as much against the Euro and Yen putting more pressure on for further weakness against the US dollar.
The RBA has indicated “a lower exchange rate is likely to be needed”, and it is likely to ease further till it gets this. The Australian dollar is oversold short-term and so could have a short-term bounce, but expect a fall to US$0.70 by year end. So continue to favour unhedged over hedged global shares.
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-7.PNG" alt="The A$ back to around fair value on relative prices">
Source: RBA, ABS, AMP Capital
Third, overweight Australian versus global bonds. While Australian bond yields are low they are high by global standards and likely to provide better returns than global bonds as the global search for yield results in ongoing convergence of Australian bond yields with the lower rates seen globally and as further RBA easing pulls down local bond yields. This should also benefit Australian corporate debt relative to global.
Finally, with low interest rates growth assets providing decent yields will remain attractive. This includes commercial property and infrastructure but also Australian shares which continue to offer much higher income yields relative to bank term deposits.
<img src="https://www.ampcapital.com/AMPCapitalGlobal/media/contents/Blog/olivers-insights/2015/February/4/chart-8.PNG" alt="Australian shares offering a great yield v bank deposits">
Source: RBA, Bloomberg, AMP Capital
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">Shane Oliver</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
He also provides economic forecasts and analysis of key variables and issues affecting, or likely to affect, all asset markets.
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The RBA was right to cut rates and should do so again: Shane Oliver

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Will lower oil prices mean improved economic growth?
The answer is both yes and no, depending upon which country you live in.
Recently, the Australian Financial Review reported an analysis by Oxford Economics, which predicted the likely effect upon GDP during 2015-16 of oil being at US$40 v US$84 per barrel.
A quick summary of that is included below.
<img src="https://commercialpropertymadeeasy.com/assets/2015/01/Oil-GDP.jpg" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
As far as Australia is concerned, ANZ's chief economist Warren Hogan says:"The $1 a litre petrol currently being pumped in Sydney bowsers is akin to half a 0.25 percentage interest cut."
Clearly, those oil-producing countries around the world will suffer. However, one country's loss is another country's gain.
The World Bank feels windfall savings (through price reductions) will lead to improved global economic demand — particularly, in those countries which rely upon foreign oil. And in return, this will help address the present imbalance in economic growth.
Furthermore, the World Bank predicts China's current account surplus could add between 0.4-0.7% to its GDP, during 2015 alone.
For Australia
Therefore, not only will our economy and consumers benefit from lower oil (ie: petrol) prices, but our major trading partners — China, US, India and Japan — will also enjoy advantages from lower oil prices as well.
As such, this should translate into a fourfold benefit for Australia
<ul>
<li>A decline in the present inflation rate; 
</li>
<li>Improved consumer confidence at home; 
</li>
<li>A sustained lower dollar to help exporters; and 
</li>
<li>Improved demand for what our exporters produce over the next 12 to 18 months.
</li>
</ul>
Bottom line: According to CBRE research, 2014 saw a record $26.8 billion in commercial property deals.
Office sales represented over half that total; and 23% of purchases were made by foreign investors.
With most industry experts expecting 2015 to be another strong year, improved confidence among local buyers could provide some welcome competition to those overseas purchasers.
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How lower oil prices could affect Australian commercial property: Chris Lang

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Luci Ellis, the head of Financial Stability Department at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), had her thoughts presented to the World Economic Forum at Davos last month.
She noted Australia's prevalence of variable rate mortgages was seen as stabilizing because it encourages rapid amortization, beyond what the loan contract requires.
But she also noted the use of fixed rate loans is regarded as stabilizing in German-speaking countries. 
Attendees at the World Economic Forum at Davos were told both 1929 and 2008 were financial landmarks, but they were not unique, according to an analytic report prepared by the <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Emerging_Horizons_Real_Estate_Profile_Prescriptions_Proposals_report15.pdf" target="_blank">Steering and Advisory Committees of the Emerging Horizons in Real Estate – Asset Price Dynamics Initiative</a>. 
"Institutional settings that have been regarded as sources of vulnerability in some cases can be sources of stability in others, depending on the context," Ellis wrote in the report's foreword.
"For example, restrictions on building are seen as exacerbating the 1970s cycle in office property in the United Kingdom, but more recently in Ireland, tighter restrictions might have helped to prevent the geographic misallocation of construction activity.
"Similarly, the use of fixed rate loans is regarded as stabilizing in German-speaking countries, whereas in Australia the prevalence of variable rate mortgages is seen as stabilizing because it encourages rapid amortization, beyond what the loan contract requires."
She observed that many of the recent boom-bust episodes were sparked, at least in part, by financial deregulation.
"Freed of past quantitative restrictions, banks eased their lending standards and expanded credit beyond levels that could be reasonably serviced once the market turned down," wrote Ellis.
"But this shift necessarily only happens once.
"It remains to be seen if these episodes could repeat themselves in the same countries.
"Yet memories fade, and the lax lending standards that characterized some of the boom phases described in this collection have re-emerged in some cases.
"The stance of prudential supervision seems to be important here, in that “light touch” regulatory regimes have frequently failed to prevent excessive risk-taking by financial institutions or their customers."
Ellis noted tax systems that encourage leverage and prudential regulatory regimes that do not effectively curtail imprudent behaviour seem to be common factors in many of the episodes analysed in these case studies.
Another common factor relates to the price of credit: where fixed exchange rate regimes or currency union membership result in interest rates being out of line with the needs of the domestic economy, capital flows and credit supply can fuel a speculative boom in domestic asset markets, particularly property.
"The overarching lesson for policy-makers from the collected experiences is that the social costs of the busts can be large enough to justify preventative policy action," Ellis wrote.
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RBA's Luci Ellis tells World Economic Forum boom-bust cycle fueled by financial deregulation

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There was little consensus on what the next move for interest rates in Australia was.
Several economists have changed their predictions from flat or rising rates through 2015 to forecasts of declines, while others maintain that the next shift will be up.
A key financial market indicator, <a href="https://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15SFIB" target="_blank">the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures</a> February 2015 contract, on 27 January revealed a 38% expectation of an interest rate cut to 2.25% at the RBA’s board meeting on 3 February. But, with the release of higher than anticipated inflation data for the final quarter of 2014 on 28 January, the indicator dropped sharply to 16%, suggesting much lower expectations of a rate cut in February.
Click to open in new window:
<a href="/images/2015/01/30/zoe-jan-30-onem.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2015/01/30/zoe-jan-30-onem.jpg" alt=""></a>
Source: global-rates.com, Property Observer research.
Some economists, including HSBC Bank’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham, say the latest inflation figure means interest rates are now more likely to remain on hold through 2015 than be cut.
The RBA bases its interest rate decisions on a wide range of economic drivers. Local inflation figures are a critical component. But global economic factors such as falling oil prices and uncertainty in the economic outlook for Australia’s trading partners and other countries also have an influence.
Property Observer had a look at what central banks in other countries are doing with their official interest rates.
The RBA bases its interest rate decisions on a wide range of economic drivers. Local inflation figures are a critical component. But global economic factors such as falling oil prices and uncertainty in the economic outlook for Australia’s trading partners and other countries also have an influence.
Trading partners
China is Australia’s biggest two-way trading partner so its economic health is vital to Australia. China’s economy has been slowing and in November 2014 its central bank cut interest rates for the first time in two years in move to improve the situation. Its official interest rate is now at 5.6%, down from 6% in November.
Australia’s second largest trading partner is Japan. The Japanese economy has been in a poor state for years. Its official interest rate is just 0.1%.
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of Australia’s next biggest trading partner, the USA, has been vocal about its intentions to keep rates low for the near term. Its interest rate has been at 0.25% since December 2008, when the Fed slashed rates from 1%.
The table below shows the current interest rates of several major countries, the previous interest rate and the date of the most recent change.
As the table shows, many countries have been lowering interest rates. Most recently, at the end of January, Canada surprised markets by cutting rates, while Switzerland further lowered its negative interest rate, so customers must pay more to the central bank for holding their money.
Only a handful of countries have boosted rates in recent months, one being New Zealand, which is another of Australia’s top 10 trading partners. New Zealand lifted its interest rate in July last year to 3.5%.
While many countries manage monetary policy through interest rates, Singapore, another of Australia’s most important trading partners, manages its foreign exchange rate instead. On 28 January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised the market by saying it would take measures to slow the rise of its dollar. This could be considered its version of cutting interest rates.
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