Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Economy

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<div>The ABS released its Lending Finance data for May 2015 which showed that low interest rates are encouraging greater borrowing across the economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While total lending was a little lower than in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, over the past year the data has strengthened considerably.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupied housing finance has increased to a record high level, while personal finance borrowing is also now tracking at its highest benchmark on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total lending finance for the month of $74 billion was an increase of 10% on the prior year figure, sending total finance commitments for the past 12 months surging 11% to $846 billion - the highest ever figure on this survey.</div>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r7zMiNP0hrE/VaMqbW5y3nI/AAAAAAAAW2g/Hv0pU7OKztM/s640/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r7zMiNP0hrE/VaMqbW5y3nI/AAAAAAAAW2g/Hv0pU7OKztM/s640/LF3.jpg" width="640" height="282"> Sydney property investors running riot 
<div>While property investor loans have evidently passed their peak for this cycle in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, elsewhere investor loans are trending upwards.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed in New South Wales investor lending is exploding off the top of the chart, with the May 2015 result of $6.07 billion again comfortably the greatest ever month of investment lending in any state or territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Summarily, Sydney now has the highest ever level of investment lending in concert with the lowest stock on market levels we have seen. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Egg on face for many of the property experts once again, though it should be noted here that the market regulator "should" now be targeting Sydney loans with a vengeance in order to dial back this exuberant level of demand.</div>
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y4pNm4gMQPI/VaMufvQ20hI/AAAAAAAAW3U/saA0sZZ_hR4/s640/LF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y4pNm4gMQPI/VaMufvQ20hI/AAAAAAAAW3U/saA0sZZ_hR4/s640/LF1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></div>
 
<div>Charted below is the raw data for New South Wales, which shows that investor lending has increased by an extraordinary 137% over the three years since May 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis, investor lending has increased by more than 30% over the past year - yet another monster increase.</div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rtCPwmPXV_w/VaMqbhX32AI/AAAAAAAAW24/QkPXvKGPAiE/s640/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rtCPwmPXV_w/VaMqbhX32AI/AAAAAAAAW24/QkPXvKGPAiE/s640/LF2.jpg" width="640" height="272"></div>
 
<div>Although not charted here mainly due to laziness, May was also by a whisker the strongest ever month for investment lending in Victoria at $3.27 billion, taking rolling annual lending to $34 billion, a 22 per cent year-on-year increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>May was another strong month for Queensland investor lending at $1.73 million. which takes the rolling annual figure 13.3 per cent higher than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It has been a long yet steady recovery for Queensland investors since the financing nadir related to the 2011 floods.</div>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j1D_B7ZhPsI/VaMqcokjPwI/AAAAAAAAW2o/jADYFHRqXGY/s640/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j1D_B7ZhPsI/VaMqcokjPwI/AAAAAAAAW2o/jADYFHRqXGY/s640/LF4.jpg" width="640" height="268"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Investor lending was lower in the month of May in South Australia, but nevertheless on a rolling annual basis has moved 11% higher over the past year.</div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-U43UWz-Cr3s/VaMuJcbQtBI/AAAAAAAAW3I/YsmK5om-rqg/s640/SA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-U43UWz-Cr3s/VaMuJcbQtBI/AAAAAAAAW3I/YsmK5om-rqg/s640/SA.jpg" width="640" height="278"></div>
 
<div>Investor lending is now declining in Western Australia, albeit fairly moderately, with low borrowing rates sustaining borrowing for property investment at a historically high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z_r-c3Tek1w/VaMuJO7v2TI/AAAAAAAAW3E/AhROalONWVw/s640/Wa.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z_r-c3Tek1w/VaMuJO7v2TI/AAAAAAAAW3E/AhROalONWVw/s640/Wa.jpg" width="640" height="278"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The wrap</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, a strong result which suggests that total lending finance on an annualised basis may be heading towards $900 billion in due course, suggesting that easier monetary policy is taking effect.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Property investor lending continues to be exceptionally strong, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And indeed the data suggests that this dynamic is now spreading to Hobart, Brisbane, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Adelaide.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney property investors running riot: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy (May 2015) referenced unique data from Charter Keck Cramer and the National Land Survey Program (NLSP) to highlight imbalances between the strength of purchaser demand and scarcity of developable land supply in capital city greenfield land markets.
The land markets are a critical input into the housing industry and with the decline in the mining sector, investment in new housing is becoming increasingly relied upon to support the domestic economy’s growth. This land market imbalance is also causing localised lot price pressures, especially in Sydney, and will ultimately impact opportunities for dwelling investment and undermine potential growth in the domestic economy.
New housing supply is clearly being supported by historically low interest rates and is further evidenced by the NLSP’s observation of 50,000 lot sales in the year ending March 2015 across the capital cities, which is at peak levels and will to continue to drive high levels of new housing construction.
New housing supply across Australia is also being underpinned by historic high levels of new apartment supply. Charter’s unique insight into the Core apartment markets of the capital cities highlights that there are currently 98,000 apartments under construction or being marketed.
<img src="/images/2015/05/19/700_Papaleo.jpg" alt="" width="715" height="467" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
Robert Papaleo is National Executive Director of market intelligence firm Charter Keck Cramer. He can be contacted <a href="https://charterkc.com.au/people/robert-papaleo/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Land market imbalance causing localised price pressures: Robert Papaleo

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The former Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson, in his first interview since leaving his job in December, says there isn't and never was a fiscal crisis.
He described the damagingly simple focus on budget surpluses and deficits as a fixation.
"Australia has fantastic opportunities in front of it, the shift of economic weight towards our region, the technological changes, if we grasp them," he told the Australian Financial Review's Laura Tingle.
"How do we go about grasping it? Well first of all, we've got to get our house in order. That means we've got to get our fiscal situation sorted out.
"It's not a crisis, it's never been a crisis. The last thing you'd want to do is start racing back to surplus in the next couple of years: the economy is growing below trend and will continue to do so."
He warned as long as Australia fails to get its budgetary house in order, it remains vulnerable to another shock like the global financial crisis.
"We could get hit at any point with another external shock. If we start from where our debt position is, it won't take very long for us to end up with debt levels that are dramatically higher than we've experienced in modern Australia," he said, adding Ireland's debt position "wasn't a lot different from Australia's" before the GFC.
"I don't envisage we will have to do that, but situations can change and change quickly, so that is why you want to err on the side of caution – get the place to a stronger fiscal position. You don't panic and try to do it in the next couple of years, but over a sustained period. At the moment we are looking at a decade of deficits."
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There is no budget crisis: Martin Parkinson

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Confidence in the real estate and construction sectors remains high, the latest ANZ/Property Council sentiment survey showed.
There was a weakening in some states, especially WA on the transition of the economy from the resources boom, the chief executive of the Property Council Ken Morrison said.
But property - expressly housing - was now the source of economic growth.
 <img src="/images/2015/04/23/anz-april-23-four.jpg" alt="" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
<img src="/images/2015/04/23/anz-april-23-five.jpg" alt="">
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Housing the source of economic growth: ANZ/Property Council

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The 100th anniversary of the ANZAC landings is rapidly approaching and the focus is very rightly on the sacrifices made by those involved.
Much has been made of how the ANZAC spirit shaped the Australian identity. But Gallipoli and the broader conflict also shaped the Australian economy and financial markets.
The most immediate impact of the war on the Australian economy was the disruption to international trade. The slump in exports was shortlived as the war effort geared up. But the weakness in imports persisted for the duration. Imports of manufactured items were particularly hard hit.
The need to replace imported goods gave a significant boost to Australian manufacturing. The steel industry and chemicals are key examples. Production of iron ore rose by 150% during the war years. And crude steel production jumped by 1,200%. The value of chemical production lifted by 88%. Companies that now dominate the business landscape such as BHP rode the wave.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2015/04/24/soldier%20april%2024%20one.gif" alt="" width="363" height="342">
The difficulties of trading with Europe saw a re‑orientation of Australia’s trade towards Asia. About 10% of exports went to Asia pre War. This proportion reached 19% by war’s end. Old trading patterns resumed post War. But this tilt towards Asia provided a taste of things to come.
Isolation provided a form of protection for Australian industry. One outcome was a demand for “protection” to continue. Tariffs pre date WWI. But the Tariff Board was set up in 1921 and the Greene Tariff of that year substantially increased protection. The “infant industry” and “national defence” arguments for protection held sway. While production and employment benefited initially, this policy approach did contribute to weak productivity outcomes and some of the structural impediments that the economy is still working through.
Australia’s strong focus on immigration is allied to the defence theme. Immigration virtually ceased during the War years. But the Federal government vigorously promoted migration to Australia when the War finished. Assistance schemes were put in place. These schemes were mainly targeted at British migrants. But interest from Italy and Greece picked up and Australia took the first steps down the multicultural path.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2015/04/24/soldier%20april%2024%20two.gif" alt="" width="359" height="337">
Agriculture was the largest sector within the Australian economy. And the rural sector was required to make a significant contribution to the war effort. Governments responded to war needs by seeking orderly marketing through statutory marketing authorities. The first Australian Wheat Board appeared at this time. When policy makers sought to unwind some of these arrangements after the War they found strong support for maintaining formal marketing arrangements backed up by government legislation. As they evolved, many of these schemes came to adversely affect the efficiency of resource use.
Wars are expensive – in treasure as well as lives. And paying for the War wrought some significant changes in fiscal policy and financial markets. Public debt rose from 75% of GDP in 1913 to 123% by 1918. Today’s budget deficits and debt burdens look modest by comparison.
Capital markets in London were difficult to access. And the Government financed the war effort through a series of loans from the public. The War Loan Bonds and the Peace Bonds administered by the Commonwealth Bank were a significant step in the formation of Australian capital markets. These activities and the other demands of a war time economy contributed to the Commonwealth Bank taking on the responsibilities of a central bank. The Reserve Bank of Australia evolved from these central banking activities. The RBA’s success in promoting financial stability and economic activity is now a key underpinning of our economic wellbeing.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2015/04/24/soldier%20april%2024%20four.gif" alt="" width="352" height="331">
The government also paid for the war in other ways, the ramifications of which are with us today. The state governments raised most of the revenue prior to the war, including income tax. Federal revenues were mainly from customs and excise duties. But a number of new taxes were in place by the end of the war. These included a federal income tax first levied in 1915/16 and a major revenue source today. The increasing reliance on income taxes and increasing centralisation of tax collections dates from that time. The debate about how to share that revenue and the need to reform the taxation system continues today.
Peace is also an expensive business for governments. The desire to build a country fit for heroes had some ramifications that are still playing out. A War Service Homes Scheme providing 45 year loans at favourable rates began in 1918. The long history of government policy to encourage home ownership was underway. And the Australian love affair with housing has been with us ever since. A Soldier Settlement Scheme was set up to create jobs for returned servicemen and open up land to agriculture. A significant investment in infrastructure was required. And while the scheme struggled to meet its objectives, the infrastructure put in place still provides a significant economic benefit.
A related theme was the acceleration in technological development that accompanied the war. Few would have imagined in 1914 that Qantas would emerge as a commercial airline in 1920!
One trend that might have amused the larrikin Australian soldier of legend at Gallipoli was the drop in sporting attendance during the war. Crowds at the VFL Grand Final did not reach pre‑War levels until 1925!
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2015/04/24/soldier%20april%2024%20three.gif" alt="" width="356" height="335">
On a more sombre note the War also required a very necessary and deserved lift in Government spending on social welfare. The dark side of war is only too apparent in the spending on war, service and disability pensions which increased by a factor of 23 in the ten years from 1916. The development of the modern welfare system was underway.
A broader financial theme was unfolding behind this domestic government finance and financial market story. The US was a net debtor in global capital markets at the start of the War. And a large net creditor by the end. The centre of economic gravity was shifting from Great Britain to the United States. The centre of global financial markets was shifting from London to New York.
The war also influenced economic thought. Politics and economic directions differed sharply. But the central bank focus on controlling inflation that we see today, for example, had its genesis in the hyperinflation that damaged economies such as Germany after the War. Much of the thinking of the great economic minds, such as Keynes, was shaped by their experiences of war and its aftermath.
Lest we forget.
Michael Blythe is chief economist at CBA.
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ANZACs, the economy and soldier settlement: Michael Blythe

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NSW leading the way: CommSec's State of the States report

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Household consumption – three-fifths of gross state product – strengthened noticeably in NSW over 2014 (+4.1% year on year) alongside faster growth in household income and dwelling prices.
FIGURE 1. POSITIVE GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR NSW
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-one.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
Discretionary spending, which is particularly sensitive to the economic cycle, grew strongly over 2014 (Figure 2). Spending on household goods strengthened in line with the pick-up in dwelling construction. Discretionary spending on services – recreation activities and hotels, cafés, and restaurants – also increased significantly over the year.
FIGURE 2. DISCRETIONARY HOUSEHOLD SPENDING HAS STRENGTHENED
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-two.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
Consumer spending growth may be less robust this year as labour market conditions outside of Sydney remain challenging (see below) and house price growth is expected to moderate somewhat – retail sales growth in NSW has slowed considerably over the past six months or so (Figure 3). Nevertheless, strong population growth will provide ongoing support to spending and the lower currency will also direct a larger proportion of spending to local businesses.
FIGURE 3. NSW RETAIL SALES AND SYDNEY DWELLING PRICES
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-three.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, Core Logic RP Data, ANZ Research
INVESTMENT HAS BEEN WEAK OUTSIDE OF HOUSING
Dwelling investment in NSW has grown significantly over the past couple of years following a prolonged period of very low levels of building despite solid population growth (Figure 4). This has been driven by new housing construction, with renovations activity remaining subdued as it has nationwide. In contrast, business and public investment has been weak.
FIGURE 4. NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT HAS BEEN WEAK
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-four.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
Residential construction is expected to grow further in the near term and then remain at a high level for a prolonged period (Figure 5). This would be very different to the typical boom-bust cycles in the past. This time, activity should continue to be supported by strong population growth, pent up demand, very low interest rates and ongoing house price growth in Sydney. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests that a sizeable net housing deficit will remain in NSW (Figure 6).
FIGURE 5. DWELLING INVESTMENT AND COMMENCEMENTS
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-five.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
FIGURE 6. NSW HOUSING MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-six.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
In contrast to the strength in housing construction, business and public investment has been subdued in NSW. Equipment investment has been weak, like it has been nationwide and despite a substantial amount of non-residential building activity in and around the Sydney CBD, overall underlying non-residential construction in NSW declined by 8.1% year on year in 2014.
Falling mining investment has weighed on overall business investment (Figure 7). In contrast, non-mining capex has improved but the outlook remains very uncertain. Encouragingly, non-residential building approvals have risen to a high level and the pipeline of public engineering construction remains healthy despite the equivalent private pipeline weakening (Figures 8 &amp; 9). Office market fundamentals have begun to improve as well.
FIGURE 7. NSW CAPEX &amp; EXPECTATIONS
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-seven.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
FIGURE 8. PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING APPROVALS
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-eight.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
FIGURE 9. NSW ENGINEERING WORK YET TO BE DONE
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-nine.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING COULD HANG IN THE BALANCE
The NSW government has proposed a large pipeline of public infrastructure projects in recent years, particularly roads, highways, bridges and rail. Of critical importance is the impact that the upcoming election will have on the Government’s infrastructure plans.
The current pipeline of projects under construction and committed to in the Budget will go ahead under a Labor government. But Labor will not commit to stage 3 of WestConnex, a tunnel designed to link the planned M5 East tunnel at St Peters to the future M4 East tunnel near Rozelle. Moreover, the building of a second harbour rail crossing would not begin until 2022 under Labor (it is slated for construction as early as 2017 under LNP). The Coalition has tied $11.3 billion to urban roads and urban public transport, $4.1 billion for regional transport, and $3.5 billion for social infrastructure projects to the proposed asset sales.
Labor has committed around $10 billion less than the Liberal National Coalition to infrastructure as it is opposed to the ‘poles &amp; wires’ privatisation and has a reluctance to increase debt.
FIGURE 10. NSW MAJOR PROJECTS PIPELINE
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-ten.jpg" alt=""> Source: BREE, company reports, Deloitte Access Economics, Infrastructure NSW, state government budget papers, ANZ Research
LABOUR MARKET DATA POINTS TO A DIVERGENT ECONOMY
Labour market conditions have been weak outside of Sydney. While the unemployment rate in Sydney has remained within earshot of 5% for some time, the regional unemployment rate has risen sharply to nearly 8% (Figure 11). This will reflect mining-related weakness in some regions but also the lack of property boom seen in Sydney.
FIGURE 11. LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS ARE WEAK OUTSIDE OF SYDNEY
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-eleven.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
THE HOUSING MARKET
The Sydney housing market is very strong. The median dwelling price has risen 30% since January 2013 and sales activity has picked up strongly. Housing investor activity in NSW has been much more pronounced than in other states (Figure 12). Foreign investment has also been strong. In contrast to the Sydney market, regional NSW house price growth has been more moderate (Figure 13).
While Sydney dwelling prices now look to be around fair value, we see further gains of around 8-10% over 2015 amid low interest rates and as demand continues to outstrip supply.
FIGURE 12. HOUSING INVESTOR ACTIVITY VERY STRONG IN NSW
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-twelve.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS, ANZ Research
FIGURE 13. HOUSE PRICE GROWTH MUCH SLOWER OUTSIDE OF SYDNEY
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-thirteen.jpg" alt=""> Source: Core Logic RP Data, ANZ Research
THE BUDGET OUTLOOK – RIDING ON THE PROPERTY MARKET
Unlike other states and territories, NSW does not publish a fiscal outlook during the election campaign, which means it is more difficult to ascertain the most up-to-date fiscal outlook for the state.
However, it is expected the state will deliver strong revenue from residential turnover and rising house prices. Figure 14 shows that residential transfer duty has increased sharply after a brief slow-down in the first half of 2014.
FIGURE 14. NEW SOUTH WALES TRANSFER DUTY
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-fourteen.jpg" alt=""> Source: NSW Government, ANZ Research
The outlook for housing turnover and house prices suggests that the NSW Government should benefit from elevated levels of residential transfer duty for some time. An easing policy cycle and strong house price growth will continue to spur existing property turnover and encourage the construction of new housing.
The mid-year review revised up the government’s expectations for residential turnover growth to 12% in 2014-15, driven mainly by higher house prices. Given the recent rate cut by the RBA and the expectation for a further cut next month, we would not be surprised if annual growth in residential transfer duty for 2014-15 exceeds this forecast.
The cyclical nature of the government’s own-source taxation revenue means that it needs stable funding to execute long-term infrastructure upgrades. Asset recycling is one way to go about this.
Neither party’s fiscal plans imply deterioration to the AAA stable outlook from both major rating agencies.
NSW SEMI GOVERNMENT BONDS
The aftermath of the Queensland state election saw a significant repricing in the level of Semi government bonds to both the ACGB curve and the swap curve. Queensland Treasury Corporation (QTC) bonds widened by around 20bp in the 10 year part of the curve. NSWTC issues also seem to be affected by this dynamic. Investors have been concerned with the shifting sands of the Australian electorate and this has been reflected in the level of Semi government spreads. It has clearly been a negative for NSWTC, as the first state to face an election since the Queensland poll in late January.
As Figure 15 shows, the spread of NSWTC bonds to the ACGB curve is at the widest point since the Queensland election. This surprises us to an extent for a number of reasons. Firstly, the NSWTC credit rating is stable at AAA. In the case of Queensland, market expectations had priced bonds to reflect the probability that the LNP would be elected. Furthermore, one ratings agency continues to hold a negative outlook on Queensland’s rating.
NSWTC bonds have also come under pressure due to investor preference for the debt of the Supranational borrowing entities from Europe. These borrowers, such as Germany’s KfW and Rentenbank, as well as the European Investment bank (EIB), have seen a strong performance in recent months after the ECB announced they would be bought as part of the ECB’s QE program.
Domestic investors have been better overall sellers of Semi government bonds to buy the Supranational bonds given the yield pick-up and the potential for outperformance of these names.
We believe the underperformance in NSWTC bonds is unwarranted and that the recent widening of spreads would be arrested by a strong mandate for asset sales.
FIGURE 15. WIDENING OF NSWTC BONDS AGAINST THE COMMONWEALTH
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-fifteen.jpg" alt=""> Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
In the event of a strong election win for the incumbent government, we believe NSWTC bonds should tighten by 8-12bp against the ACGB curve. The borrowing requirements for NSW remain low, with $4.6 billion of term issuance for the FY 2014-15. Moreover, as outlined above, the NSW economy is in a robust position which should be reflected in the spread to other borrowers.
We also see the potential performance of the NSWTC index linked issuance. Much of the issuance of NSWTC’s index linked bond curve comes from electricity assets. In the event of asset sales, the need for this issuance would be reduced and should see the NSWTC index linked curve tighten against both the nominal and the ACGB curve.
FIGURE 16. WIDENING OF NSWTC LINKERS AGAINST THE COMMONWEALTH
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-sixteen.jpg" alt=""> Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
FIGURE 17. NSWTC INFLATION BREAKEVEN SPREAD
<img src="/images/2015/03/24/anz-mar-24-seventeen.jpg" alt=""> Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
Kirk Zammit is an economist with ANZ Research.
Justin Fabo is senior economist with ANZ Research.
Cherelle Murphy is senior economist with ANZ Research.
Martin Whetton is senior rates strategist with ANZ Research.
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Economy is strong, but little investment outside of housing: ANZ Research's NSW scorecard

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The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has urged the Federal government to stay the course on meaningful budget repair or it will face consequences as the debt blows out.
"We're not on the correct path for the long run and we need to get onto a better path I think during benign times," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said on Friday.
We don't have a budgetary crisis, he added.
But during questioning Glenn Stevens told an Australia America Chamber of Commerce lunch that the budget repair should happen during "benign times" to build resilience for the next downturn.
"We should be taking early measured steps that build up in their effect over the long term so that we sustain the position we have," he said.
"If God forbid a large negative shock came along right now, we still have macroeconomic scope to respond to that" with the fiscal firepower to respond, he said.
"A deficit that's 3% of GDP right now that would be at 5 or 6 or 7% very quickly if we had a significant recession. If you were then thinking we'd like to do some discretionary stimulus on top of that then you are talking about pretty big deficits," Stevens said.
But scope for discretionary stimulus on top of that could be limited, if the deficit was already high. 
"When you go into a downtown the deficit gets bigger anyway because the government does nothing because of the so-called automatic stabilisers and that's appropriate," he said.
His formal notes advised that looking back at the history: "If we come through this terms of trade event with neither a major outbreak of inflation in the upswing nor a major crash in the downswing, even if we have a period of sub-average growth in the process, we will have done far, far better than in any previous event of this kind, let alone one of this magnitude."
"I still think that is the most likely outcome.
"Even so, the lower terms of trade mean that, all other things equal, the path of future incomes is not as high as it might have looked a few years ago.
"Even allowing for the fact that we all knew, intellectually, that at least part of the boom was not permanent, there is a human tendency to project what we see now (good or bad) into the future. Eventually reality intrudes and we have to re-evaluate.
"That has happened countless times before and will again, no doubt."
Glenn Stevens noted while that the economy continued in its adjustment to the end of the investment phase of the ‘mining boom’. 
"The massive run-up in resources sector capital spending that was a natural response to earlier very high prices is reversing, causing a drag on demand. 
"So we hope for other sources of demand to speed up to help make up the difference. 
"Some of them are, though not as seamlessly as any of us would like. 
"It is a major transition. 
"We can hope to assist it, and the Reserve Bank is doing that, and will continue to lend what support it can, within the limits of its powers and consistent with its mandate.
"The decline in the exchange rate is assisting the transition (as it assisted in absorbing the earlier phase of the mining boom). 
"But we have always said we cannot hope to fine-tune this transition, however much we may wish otherwise."
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There's hope if a large negative shock hits Australia: RBA's Glenn Stevens

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With construction beginning on more than 50,000 dwelling units in the September 2014 quarter, up almost 20% on the previous year, is the construction sector all that's holding Australia back from a recession?
That may certainly be the case, according to comments from BIS Shrapnel economists at its Melbourne business forecasting conference earlier this week. And the Reserve Bank (RBA) board may just agree.
In its March meeting minutes, the RBA board noted further softening in the mining sector, with "steep declines" in mining investment contributing to below-trend gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the December quarter.
"The ABS survey of capital expenditure intentions implied further large falls in mining investment, as current projects were completed and few new projects were likely to proceed," the minutes read.
Meanwhile, income growth stayed low by historical measures and "the unemployment rate had continued its gradual upward trend".
Aside from low oil prices, the RBA board didn't see much that would continue to support consumer demand – except for residential investment.
"The current strength of housing construction and the increase in housing prices were expected to provide a measure of support for consumption," read March's minutes.
"A range of indicators, including residential building approvals, suggested further strong growth of dwelling investment in the near term."
The Reserve Bank's comments crediting construction investment with supporting the domestic economy are supported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) December quarter GDP figures. The ABS noted that: "In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributors to GDP growth were Construction and Health care and social assistance each contributing 0.1 percentage points to the increase in GDP."
According to the ABS, $50.35 billion worth of construction work was done (on a seasonally adjusted basis) in the final quarter of 2014. While the figure is slightly down from its previous peak in the final quarter of 2012 (<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/construction-holds-up-well-thanks-to" target="_blank">as noted by Pete Wargent</a>), on a historical basis, the pace of Australia's construction industry in the past few years has been unprecedented.
<img src="/images/2015/03/23/bis-mar-23-one.jpg" alt="">
The value of total construction work done in the December 2014 quarter was also down on the figure recorded in the same period in 2013, by 4.8%. However, the decline can be attributed to engineering work and commercial construction, down 12.3% and 4.8% respectively over the year.
In fact, BIS Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor noted on Tuesday that the state with the strongest relative commercial property construction sector currently was Tasmania, thanks to the Royal Hobart Hospital redevelopment.
Nationally, the value of residential work was up 12.7% from the December 2013 quarter.
<img src="/images/2015/03/23/bis-mar-23-two.jpg" alt="">
The Reserve Bank has also acknowledged the weak commercial property construction figures, noting in the March minutes that:
"Overall, survey measures of business conditions had remained around their average levels, while the trend in non-residential building approvals was at a low level and conditions in the commercial property market remained weak, with office vacancy rates in all capital cities at high levels."
But while residential investment has been able to buoy a flagging commercial property market, can it continue to uphold the entire economy as the mining sector slows further?
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Has the apartment construction boom saved Australia from recession?

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The ABS released its <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/3685CE437B16298ACA257AFC000E9FB3?opendocument" target="_blank">Detailed Labour Force</a> figures for February 2015 and for the quarter, and the news was somewhat mixed.
This data series is not seasonally adjusted, and total jobs growth over the past 12 months was surprisingly strong, with the total number of employed persons surging to 11,762,700. Employment growth was driven overwhelmingly job gains in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Brisbane.
It will be interesting to see whether this strength is ultimately mirrored in the seasonally adjusted Labour Force data in due course. Let's take a look in four short parts.
 Part 1 - Mining and manufacturing jobs go
While it can hardly be a surprise, the fall in the number of employees in the mining sector has been dramatic, tailing all the way from 270,000 to just 220,400, with nearly 50,000 positions cut in just 12 months.
Manufacturing industries have also shed -23,500 jobs over the past year.
It has long been my contention that the end of the mining investment boom will represent adverse news for many of Australia's regional property markets, a number of which had performed surprisingly well through a once-off decade long resources investment boom.
The decline in manufacturing employment is also in my opinion likely to represent a significant headwind for the city of Adelaide, though for the purposes of balance I do note that a number of other commentators strongly disagree with me on this point.
 Part 2 - Services employment increases
On the positive side of the employment ledger there now is some evidence of rebalancing over the past 12 months, with construction and services jobs helping to more than offset the jobs losses in mining and manufacturing.
As I noted <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/sydney-construction-boom" target="_blank">in by blog post last week</a>, despite the inevitable contraction in the resources sector, total construction employment is still pumping with a net +45,800 jobs added over the past 12 months.
Meanwhile professional, scientific and technical services employment surged by +98,800 from 889,000 to 997,800.
Other non-trivial gains were seen in accommodation and food services (+43,500), arts and recreation (+31,300) and media and telecoms (+24,500).
Generally speaking this is good news for the four largest capital cities, and not such happy news for regional Australia or Adelaide.
Part 3 - Employment by region
Over the past year the greatest absolute employment growth has been seen in Melbourne (+94,800) and Sydney (+49,600).
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2x2GN1SDvR4/VQstUPtkehI/AAAAAAAAT2U/1I5VHfnHuFQ/s1600/dlf3.jpg"> <a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2x2GN1SDvR4/VQstUPtkehI/AAAAAAAAT2U/1I5VHfnHuFQ/s1600/dlf3.jpg"></a>
By contrast, regional employment growth has been weak leading to a divergence in unemployment rates in New South Wales in particular - a dearth of employment growth on a net basis over the past two years has seen regional unemployment in NSW rising to above 8%.
This has partly been driven by mining jobs losses in the coal sector, and on a smoothed moving average basis, the unemployment trend becomes clear.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VRGNTMkVQ_k/VQstS3JQr7I/AAAAAAAAT10/g1Y5NxzVWvQ/s1600/DLF6.jpg"> <a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VRGNTMkVQ_k/VQstS3JQr7I/AAAAAAAAT10/g1Y5NxzVWvQ/s1600/DLF6.jpg"></a>
In other states, both Perth (+35,700) and Brisbane (+33,200) have recorded robust employment growth over the year to February 2015, with residential property construction having a key role to play.
However, regional employment growth has been weak in Queensland and Western Australia too.
Meanwhile over the past two years total employment in Adelaide has declined (-11,900), with further job losses expected due to Holden's departure.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j5Fbcz5JmlA/VQstTP_yWKI/AAAAAAAAT14/_IwGI2MHbT8/s1600/DLF4.jpg"> 
Looking at these results across a range of time horizons shows how the bulk of employment growth has consistently been seen in the four largest capital cities plus regional Queensland.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H0qMSobbRjc/VQstUFb7chI/AAAAAAAAT2M/TqSSOhV5yzo/s1600/dlf5.jpg">
 Part 4 - Unemployment The month to month unemployment figures are very volatile, but for completeness here they are.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h4KjNZbSYBw/VQstSpeAdvI/AAAAAAAAT1w/tiQH1F2qcbo/s1600/DLF2.jpg">
In order to make some kind of sense of the capital city unemployment rates (which are not seasonally adjusted) I've run them below on a smoothed moving average basis.
One key takeaway point here for mine is that the unemployment rate in Perth has been trending upwards fairly sharply since 2013, continuing a trend away from near full employment in the period leading up to 2008.
There has been some talk of weakening employment markets in Darwin, though in truth there has not been much evidence of this in the data to date.
On the other hand, the outlook in Tasmania is improving with the unemployment rate beginning to decline and a number of other positive data releases being recorded here on this blog over the past 12 months, including for <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/retail-trade-lifts-in-january" target="_blank">retail trade</a> and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/economy-grows-by-25-percent-in-2014" target="_blank">state final demand</a>.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BY7T7X-PgAY/VQstTtPwl8I/AAAAAAAAT2A/hpM-pOCOLeY/s1600/dlf1.jpg">
In fact, while I don't recommend on this blog that anyone dashes out to invest in property in Hobart (or for that matter, anywhere), the Tasmanian capital could well be the surprise package property market of the next few years.
Firstly, this is because so many years of inertia have seen the <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/vacancy-rates-tighten-in-february" target="_blank">rental market tightening considerably</a>.
And while population growth and employment growth have certainly been very weak in Tasmania over recent years, the "X factor" could be Chinese investment capital, with record numbers of Chinese visitors enjoying the fresh produce and fresh air of the Apple Isle.
I haven't been down to Tassie since spending a month there while the dollar was busily crippling the forestry industry, but I've heard from more than one source this week that Chinese tourism is dribving a rebound.
I even received a Tweet to that effect:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZhgL4zMboQM/VQtGIsykihI/AAAAAAAAT2o/NzT7qlnfH-I/s1600/TAS.jpg">
Moreover, Tasmania has a small enough population that new investment could impact markets more materially at the margin.
Regional unemployment
I'll cover the regional unemployment rates data in a separate blog post, but the areas of concern include:
<ul>
<li>Central Coast</li>
<li>Hunter Valley ex-Newcastle (now 12.4% unemployment in February 2015 as coal mining job losses bit)</li>
<li>Newcastle and Lake Macquarie</li>
<li>Richmond Tweed</li>
<li>Logan-Beaudesert</li>
<li>Moreton Bay North</li>
<li>Mackay</li>
<li>Wide Bay</li>
</ul>
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.
 
His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
 
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