National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Economy

TimoHenckel-dMcwuZpzVD

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

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Guest observation
I’m not happy about it, but Australia's housing market has a potentially tough year ahead of it.
There are no guarantees in forecasting, but when half-trillon-dollar investment managers start throwing around phrases like "looming housing correction," you know there could be a problem.
In its recent report on Australia's economy, Alliance Bernstein used just that phrase. The report concluded, "There's a clear risk that falling house prices may be the next phase in the post-commodity–adjustment story."
(<a href="https://www.apple.com/">Jessie Richardson</a> covered this report. Get your own <a href="https://www.apple.com/">PDF copy</a> here.)
I'm certainly not one of those who think investment bankers are always right. Perhaps only investment bankers themselves fall for that fallacy.
There is strong evidence, however, that residential prices in the capital cities will either stall or fall in the coming 12 months. Here are four of the key points:
<ol>
<li>Australia is facing an income recession and weak GDP growth. In trend terms, GDP increased only 0.5 percent in the September quarter 2014. Australia's <a href="https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50fbcf2e-9d4b-11e4-9b22-00144feabdc0#ixzz3PUJBQwE4">income recession</a> is mostly due to lower prices for our biggest exports, resources. Gross domestic income fell 0.3% and 0.4% in the second and third quarters of 2014, respectively. As a result, real wages are falling for the first time since 1992. 
</li>
<li>Conditions in the labour market, as the Reserve Bank points out in its <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2014/nov/html/overview">November statement</a>, remain subdued. Weak employment and weak housing markets tend to reinforce each other. This was shown most clearly in the wake of the GFC in the US. <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/the-relationship-between-the-housing-and-labor-market-crises-and-doubling-up.htm">Many studies</a> found increased “doubling up” of families sharing homes, and more young adults remained in their parents' homes instead of starting their own households. As one newspaper put it, “Love isn’t all that’s keeping family together today. The bruising housing market is too.” 
</li>
<li>Bloomberg news <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-05/australia-needs-stimulus-to-avoid-recession-morgan-stanley-says">concluded recently</a> that Australia may well have a recession this year, unless the government "acts decisively to stimulate the economy." One of the government's roles is to help balance out the business cycle. The Abbott government promised to do this with big investments in infrastructure. Unfortunately, even today that is still more an aspiration than a reality. 
</li>
<li>Investors are likely to play a smaller part in the housing market this year, as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has begun discouraging banks from engaging in higher-risk lending. Risky interest-only loans (popular with onshore investors) accounted for 42.5% –almost half– of new housing loan approvals in the September quarter. That's such an outsized role that any significant drop in investor transactions will take real heat out of the housing market.</li>
</ol>
 All things considered, housing could indeed have a tough year in 2015. It will certainly be poor by comparison to last year's performance.
ANDREW TAYLOR is the co-CEO of Juwai.com, China’s No. 1 international property portal and recent winner of the "most influential international property site in China 2014" award from the country’s peak e-commerce body. 
Forbes calls Juwai.com “China's biggest real estate source for those looking to buy overseas.”
 
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ataylor-LB7AWVFTs9

Income recession one of four reasons 2015 might not be celebratory

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Business outlook on profitability has hit a 23-year low for the December quarter, but Small Business Minister Bruce Billson says there are plenty of positive “green shoots” to give the small business community confidence in 2015.
The latest Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Survey of Investor Confidence shows businesses had a <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/economy/44757-aussies-tipped-to-spend-30-billion-in-december-but-it-s-not-all-holiday-cheer-the-three-biggest-problems-facing-retailers-this-christmas" target="_blank">tough Christmas period</a> and have a gloomy outlook for the year ahead.
The survey’s 641 respondents, mainly from the construction and manufacturing industries, said conditions in their own businesses had fallen further into negative territory, from 49.5 to 48.6 over the December quarter. Sales and profits indicators also dipped for the quarter.
Outlook on profitability hit its lowest level in 23 years, drastically falling from 44.4 to 41.7 in the December quarter.  The profitability index has remained in negative territory since the global financial crisis, but has tumbled steeply over the last two quarters.
Businesses’ expectations for their own prospects are also on a downward slide, with respondents saying they are pessimistic about the prospects for broader economic growth and the general investment climate.
ACCI chief executive Kate Carnell used the results to call on the federal government to act.
"We need the government, and the Parliament to act to restore business confidence by fixing the budget and undertaking productivity-enhancing structural reforms,” Carnell said in a statement.
Billson said this morning Carnell’s comments point to the need for Parliament to be more constructive and collaborative around budget repair.
“I think you’ll find the political climate quite unsettled for the business community,” says Billson.
And Billson blames Labor’s “negativity” for the downturn in confidence.
“Labor has returned to type as a party of protest. Bill Shorten has proved he is a purveyor of pessimism. They are creating uncertainty and undermining the surefootedness that the business community needs,” Billson says.
“This [survey] is a wake-up call to the Labor opposition. There is too much at stake to be playing short-term populism.”
Billson urges the small business community to look at several economic “green shoots”, including rising job numbers, <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/economy/45291-australia-japan-fta-comes-into-effect-today-what-it-will-mean-for-your-business" target="_blank">recent trade agreements</a> and retail trade figures for Christmas.
“The survey also highlights that many businesses are faring better than anticipated,” says Billson.
“Focusing exclusively on the negative suffocates news that, I certainly feel, adds to optimism about the new year,” he says.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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krobb-aCrRNnPq6D

Business confidence lowest in 23 years

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New South Wales and the Northern Territory have the strongest economies in Australia, according to the latest instalment in CommSec’s <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/MD-State_of_the_States_January_15%20(web).pdf" target="_blank">State of the States report</a>.
Each quarter CommSec <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/economy/32775-act-shoots-forward-in-state-of-the-states-report--but-western-australia-still-first-by-a-mile" target="_blank">measures the performance of the state and territory economies</a> against eight key indicators, including economic growth, retail spending, equipment investment, unemployment, construction work down, population growth, housing finance and dwelling commencements.
Each indicator is compared with decade averages or the ‘normal’ performance of the indicators in that state.
NSW took out the top spot in the quarter, snatching the mantle from Western Australia and retained its number one rank in the last quarter.
According to CommSec economist Craig James, NSW’s top ranking on population growth and retail trade is keeping it at the top of the list, while its second ranking in business investment and dwelling starts is also contributing to its overall economic performance. The state is ranked fourth in terms of housing finance and overall construction work and fifth in terms of economic growth.
But joining NSW at the top of the list is the Northern Territory, which has overtaken WA, thanks to gas projects which are driving growth for the state. The NT tops the rankings when it comes to construction work and equipment investment, as well as job market idicators, but comes in at third place for the retail trade, sixth for housing finance and seventh for population growth
Western Australia now sits at number three on the list, with declines in housing finance, dwelling starts and unemployment all contributing to the slide. However, the west is the country’s second best performing region in terms of economic growth, retail trade and construction work.
Victoria is ranked the fourth best-performing economy, following by Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory, South Australia and Tasmania.
Speaking to SmartCompany, James says the results are good news for small and medium businesses, especially housing-related businesses, which can expect another strong 12 months.
“The drivers that tend to be very important for small and medium businesses tend to be from the housing sector,” James says.
“For builders and tradespeople and retail items to do with homes, like curtains and fittings.”
James says CommSec is seeing “a degree of strength in housing across the nation”, including the construction of new housing, and this is particularly the case in NSW and the NT.
“We’re not seeing the same growth in dwellings in South Australia and Tasmania,” he says.
James says strong housing numbers have a flow-on effect to consumer confidence and rising house prices in all regions except for Canberra are also a positive as individuals are buying homes or paying off their mortgages and this means housing value is also on the up.
Click to open in new window: 
<a href="/images/2015/01/20/sta%20jan%2020%20one.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2015/01/20/sta%20jan%2020%20one.jpg" alt=""></a>
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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ekeating-PWvazjYE25

NSW and NT boast the strongest economies: Housing sector fueling growth

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As Australian companies enter the new year, IBISWorld reveals the five industries expected to soar and the five expected to sink.
We expect 2015 to be a boom year for a wide array of industries. Coal seam gas extraction will provide the benchmark for others to chase, with online grocery sales, fast fashion, private equity and hydroponic crop farming also expected to soar in the coming year.
While some industries are set for a bumper year, there are many that will be dreading the year ahead. Petroleum exploration is tipped to be the biggest loser in 2015 as oil prices plunge, while mining and construction machinery manufacturing, cigarette manufacturing, motion picture and video distribution, and electricity distribution are all expected to endure a difficult year.
Industries set to fly
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Industries
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2014 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2015 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Growth (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Coal seam gas extraction
</td>
<td valign="top">
737.9
</td>
<td valign="top">
1830.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
148.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Online grocery sales
</td>
<td valign="top">
1914.2
</td>
<td valign="top">
2194.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
14.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Fast fashion
</td>
<td valign="top">
1219.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
1346.5
</td>
<td valign="top">
10.4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Private equity
</td>
<td valign="top">
365.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
401.8
</td>
<td valign="top">
10.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Hydroponic crop farming
</td>
<td valign="top">
791.7
</td>
<td valign="top">
836.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
5.6
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Coal seam gas extraction
The coal seam gas extraction industry is undergoing a significant transformation. Industry revenue is forecast to rise by 148.0% over the next year, to reach $1.83 billion. While coal seam gas projects have become more viable due to new and improving extraction techniques, it is the development of export capabilities that is expected to drive rapid industry growth.
The opening of the domestic east coast gas market to the international market is expected to push gas prices higher – particularly as Australia is well-positioned to meet strong demand from Japan, China and South Korea, which are the world’s three largest natural gas importers.
Supply to these markets from considerable coal seam reserves in Queensland will be boosted in 2015 as the Curtis Island LNG plant becomes operational. Once operational, the Curtis Island LNG plant will be the world’s first project to turn coal seam gas into liquefied natural gas, which will be a boon to operators of newly developed coal seam gas fields in the Cooper Basin.
Online grocery sales
Online grocery shopping has been slow to catch on within the Australian market, even as local online shopping as a whole has exploded in popularity over the past five years. The uptake of online shopping is typically driven by the improved ease of use of online stores and fast, affordable delivery options. As consumers become more adept at using online stores and gain more experience buying items online, online shopping expands.
Such a phenomenon is anticipated to occur for online grocery stores in 2015, leading to revenue growth of 14.6% for the year. While grocery shopping is not a difficult undertaking as there are supermarkets scattered across all pockets of the country, time-conscious consumers are increasingly realising the benefits of online grocery shopping.
The increased prevalence of click-and-collect options and greater comfort with purchasing perishable items like fresh fruit online are expected to boost industry revenue over the coming year.
Fast fashion
Fast fashion stores are expanding rapidly across Australia. While the industry was previously dominated by Australian mainstay Cotton On, international operators including Zara, Topshop, H&amp;M, Uniqlo and Forever 21 have taken the country by storm. Zara is expected to continue its phenomenal growth, while 2015 will be the first full calendar year of Australian operations for H&amp;M, Uniqlo and Forever 21, leading to projected industry revenue growth of 10.4% over the year.
Zara posted exponential revenue growth with extremely high retail profit margins over its first three years of operation in Australia, and IBISWorld expects this growth to continue in 2015. The rousing success of the grand openings of H&amp;M and Uniqlo in Melbourne in April 2014 is expected to result in similar growth for these stores, which will generate significant growth for the overall fast fashion industry.
Private equity
2014 was a highly successful year for the private equity industry, which is expected to achieve similar prosperity in 2015. Private equity firms generate revenue from management fees paid by outside investors and the gains made on investing their own funds.
Merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activity is expected to rise in 2015. As private equity firms will play a key role in upcoming M&amp;A deals, this should result in growth in management fees earned and potential investment returns, ultimately leading to forecast industry revenue growth of 10.1% for the year.
Growth in M&amp;A activity in Australia coincides with greater global interest in M&amp;A, as Europe and particularly the United States are emerging from a prolonged period of crisis and subdued growth.
Hydroponic crop farming
Hydroponic crop farming holds a relatively small place in the overall scheme of Australian agricultural production, but is undergoing strong and steady growth. Water conservation is the driving force behind hydroponics, as hydroponically grown produce typically uses only one-fifth the amount of water that soil-grown produce requires.
In addition to water conservation, hydroponics allow for higher production yields of high-quality produce. Vertically tiered plants enable greater productivity, while greater quality control, faster plant growth and longer growing seasons offset the added cost of hydroponic systems over conventional agricultural practices.
Rising capacity in the hydroponic crop farming industry should meet sustained demand from retailers and consumers in 2015, and lead to revenue growth of a forecast 5.6% for the year.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Industries to fall
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Industries
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2014 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2015 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Growth (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Petroleum exploration
</td>
<td valign="top">
4631.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
3755.3
</td>
<td valign="top">
-18.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Cigarette &amp; tobacco manufacture
</td>
<td valign="top">
1895.3
</td>
<td valign="top">
1685.1
</td>
<td valign="top">
-11.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Electricity distribution
</td>
<td valign="top">
18547.6
</td>
<td valign="top">
16694.7
</td>
<td valign="top">
-10.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Mining &amp; construction machinery manufacture
</td>
<td valign="top">
5425.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
5092.1
</td>
<td valign="top">
-6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Film &amp; video distribution
</td>
<td valign="top">
1857.5
</td>
<td valign="top">
1788.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
-3.7
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Petroleum exploration
The world price of crude oil is plummeting due to an enormous supply glut spurred by overproduction from members of OPEC, the United States and Russia. The severe crash in oil prices means that the investment returns available from petroleum exploration activities are drastically reduced.
Exploration projects have therefore become far less viable for Australian firms, particularly as the stock prices of such firms have begun to dive. These conditions are projected to result in an 18.9% decline in industry revenue in 2015.
High oil prices have acted as an incentive for global companies to invest in petroleum exploration over the past five years. However, the subsequent oversupply is going to hamper exploration in 2015, as Australian firms are unable to compete with the low production costs and high production volumes from the world’s major oil producers.
The best-performing segment in the industry is expected to be natural gas exploration – but investment has already peaked for the segment, and additional gas extraction capacity will not be needed until export facilities become fully operational.
Cigarette and tobacco
In Australia, cigarette manufacturing has historically been dominated by British American Tobacco and Philip Morris, with Imperial Tobacco importing cigarettes rather than manufacturing them locally. The industry is headed for a severe decline in 2015, as Philip Morris offshored its cigarette manufacturing for the Australian market to its Korean facilities in 2014.
The loss of Philip Morris is forecast to result in an 11.1% revenue decline for the industry in 2015. Philip Morris held just over one-third of the industry’s market share. The loss of the company from the industry will be keenly felt as the number of companies manufacturing cigarettes and tobacco products in Australia falls from two down to one.
High regulatory barriers in Australia, requiring more stringent quality control, meant there were few export opportunities for the company’s local facility. Meanwhile, rapidly rising taxes on cigarettes and the advent of plain packaging have meant that smokers are increasingly buying cheaper cigarettes, such as those manufactured by British American Tobacco.
Electricity distribution
The cost of retail energy has surged over the past five years. Earlier projections of continued growth in electricity use per capita and rising peak demand led the industry to gold-plate electricity networks, and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) allowed fees to rise to cover capital costs. A subsequent decline in the use of centrally generated electricity means there is a surplus of network capacity.
The AER has slashed revenue limits in New South Wales and Tasmania, as consumers have been paying for networks’ overinvestment. This is expected to result in an overall industry revenue decline of 10.0% in 2015.
The AER has cut revenue limits substantially for the three networks operating in New South Wales for 2015-16 – in some cases, by over 30.0% when compared with 2014-15. Similarly, Aurora Energy in Tasmania suffered a regulated revenue cut that will hit the industry in 2015.
The industry is further threatened by the increased use of small-scale electricity generation through solar photovoltaic panels, which could reduce demand for distribution networks as consumers go off the grid.
Mining and construction machinery manufacturing
Demand for mining machinery has been driven by investment in new mines, along with mine expansion projects. Mining companies are expected to revise down their expectations of revenue growth during 2015, as the prices of commodities like iron ore have plunged. Demand for mining machinery is expected to fall as a result, leading to a forecast revenue decline of 6.1% over 2015.
The development of new mines, and the expansion of existing mines, generally requires mining firms to purchase new machinery, leading to revenue growth for mining machinery manufacturers. As the mining boom moves from its investment phase to a production phase, and as falling iron ore prices deter further investment, demand for machinery is likely to suffer in 2015.
Film and video distribution
Australian motion picture and video distributors have been hit with a barrage of new media formats and consumer behaviours that have made the industry less profitable and resulted in declining revenue over the past five years. Video-on-demand services are expected to boom in 2015, cannibalising sales of DVDs and Blu-ray Discs, which generate greater revenue. The continuous decline of DVD and video hire outlets, along with the negative effects of piracy, are projected to lead to a 3.7% dip in revenue in 2015.
The introduction of US-based streaming service behemoth Netflix, along with local entrants Stan and Presto, is tipped to be a win for consumers but a loss for distributors. Consumers will be able to pay monthly subscription fees to view a wide range of content, in contrast to paying a set price for each single film or TV show – which added up to a much larger hit to the hip pocket.
David Whytcross is an industry analyst at <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com.au" target="_blank">IBISWorld</a>.
For more information on these, or any of Australia’s 500 industries, log onto <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/www.ibisworld.com.au" target="_blank">www.ibisworld.com.au</a>, or follow IBISWorldAU on Twitter.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

The Australian industries set to fly and fall in 2015

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Judging from the first week of campaigning, the 2015 Queensland election is going to be very much about economics – and jobs in particular.
On the one hand, Premier Campbell Newman and his Liberal National Party stress that <a href="https://qld.lnp.org.au/lnp-unveils-plan-jobs-tomorrow/" target="_blank">under their “strong economic management”</a>, 1,100 new jobs are being created every month and Queensland is on track to become the fastest growing state economy in Australia.
On the other hand, the Labor opposition, led by Annastacia Palaszczuk, has focused on <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-remember-the-cutbacks-says-alp-20150108-12jrrw" target="_blank">“the savage cuts to jobs”</a> under the Newman government, arguing those cuts have affected the delivery of adequate services, especially in health.
For voters trying to discern the facts behind each party’s spin, two crucial questions are:
<ul>
<li>How does Queensland’s economy compare to the rest of Australia?</li>
<li>How has the economy performed since Newman’s Liberal National government took over from Anna Bligh’s Labor back in March 2012?</li>
</ul>
The short answer to the first question is: around the average, with some local situations that tend to be among the worst in the country.
As for the second question, I was a little surprised by what the data showed: that Queensland’s economy has fared worse over the past three years than it might appear at first sight.
To offer an independent analysis of those two questions, I have used data publicly available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Monthly data for employment and unemployment are adjusted for seasonality using the X-12 software package of the US Census Bureau.
Now, let me add some substance to those short answers.
A snapshot of the Queensland economy today
Table 1 below reports a set of key macroeconomic indicators (looking at the economy as a whole) for each Australian state and for the aggregate Australian economy. See the notes beneath the table for technical definitions.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/68651/area14mp/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/68651/width668/image-20150112-23812-r3fzs1.png" alt=""></a>
 Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Australian Bureaus of Statistics 
Notes: GDP is Gross Domestic Product, GDI is Gross Domestic Income, Unemployment rate is number of unemployed persons in percent of total labour force, Youth unemployment rate is the rate of unemployment of persons ages 15-24, and the employment rate is the number of employed individuals in percent of total working age population. GDP and GDI growth rates refer to the period June 2013-June2014. The unemployment rate refers to November 2014, youth unemployment is the 12 month average to November 2014 and the employment rate is the 3 months average to November 2014. Author provided
In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in aggregate and per capita (meaning per person), the Queensland economy is broadly in line with the Australian average. Only Western Australia and Northern Territory appear to clearly outperform the Sunshine State.
But data on Gross Domestic Income (GDI) show that Queensland is well below the Australian average. In particular, GDI per-capita in Queensland has decreased by 1% between June 2013 and June 2014. This is the second largest decline in the entire country.
Conceptually, GDP and GDI measure the same thing: output. However, they do that from two different perspectives. GDP measures “expenditures” while GDI measures “incomes”. The discrepancy between the two arises because of measurement errors.
GDP is the more popular of the two measures, but recently most Statistical Offices have started reporting both. In fact, it has been shown that GDI tends to suffer from a smaller measurement error than GDP.
GDI is therefore likely to be a more reliable predictor of the business cycle of the economy. And this is not good news for Queensland, because it means that we might be going through a much less favourable economic phase than we believe.
In terms of labour market performance, Queensland currently has the equal highest unemployment rate in the country (6.9%), matched only by Tasmania, even though this is only a few decimal points higher than the Australian average (6.3%).
Youth unemployment in Queensland (14.1%) is marginally below the Australian average of 14.5%. However, there is a lot of regional variation within Queensland. In Cairns, for instance, youth unemployment is above 21%, one of the highest rates observed in Australia. Conversely, in Mackay youth unemployment drops to 8.6%.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Newman vs Bligh on jobs and growth
In Table 2, I report the change in several macroeconomic variables since 2007. The period of observation is split in three sub-periods corresponding to the latest three Queensland governments: Bligh I (September 2007-March 2009), Bligh II (March 2009-March 2012), and Newman (March 2012 to the latest available information).
The table reports the data for Queensland and Australia overall. In terms of economic growth, again GDP and GDI provide quite different indications. According to GDP, the Queensland economy under the LNP government has performed on par with the Australian aggregate – slightly better, in fact.
Conversely, GDI data present quite a dim picture, with Queensland doing much worse than the Australian average and, more importantly, experiencing a net 2% decline in income per-capita. In this respect, the LNP government has delivered a significantly worse outcome than the previous two Labor governments.
Employment performance appears to be the highlight of the LNP government. The increase reported in the table corresponds to an average of about 970 new jobs per month between March 2012 and November 2014.
But, unfortunately for Queensland, this is only part of the story. First, practically all of the new jobs created are part-time. In fact, full-time employment decreased during the period of observation from 1.634 million to 1.626 million. Those are “original” figures; the seasonally adjusted figures show an even stronger decline. (You can read more about seasonal adjustment of jobs data <a href="https://theconversation.com/hockey-plays-the-abs-blame-game-while-unemployment-hovers-32746">here</a>.)
Second, unemployment has grown. Now, the increase shown in the table refers to the seasonally adjusted data and is considerably larger than the increase resulting from the original data. Still, the creation of new jobs occurred while existing jobs were being destroyed.
As a result, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 5.5% in March 2012 to 6.9% in November 2014. Even the original data show an increase in the unemployment rate, albeit of a much more modest magnitude.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/68652/area14mp/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/68652/width668/image-20150112-23782-1amuzxq.png" alt=""></a>
 Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 
Notes: Growth rates of GDP and GDP are annual averages. Growth rates of employment and unemployment are measured over the entire period of each government using seasonally adjusted monthly data. In addition to the growth, the table also reports the simple change in level (i.e. change in the number of people employed and unemployed). The change in unemployment rate is simply the difference between unemployment rate at the beginning of the period and unemployment rate at the end of the period. Author provided
Overall, under the LNP government, the Queensland labour market appears to have performed worse than the Australian average.
Also, it does not seem that the Newman government has outperformed either of the two Bligh governments. During Bligh’s time in power, from September 2007 to March 2012, the Queensland economy experienced higher GDI growth, faster employment growth, and a smaller increase in the rate of unemployment.
The Newman government did marginally better than the Labor government in terms of GDP per-capita growth and better than Bligh I in terms of limiting the growth in the number of unemployed people. However, the growth in unemployment during Bligh I occurred at a time when Australian unemployment was growing even faster.
Fabrizio Carmignani is professor, Griffith Business School at Griffith University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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FabrizioCarmignani-GxUevkhNYc

The true state of Queensland’s economy, without the spin

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The onetime bearish strategist at Morgan Stanley, Gerard Minack, has addressed his housing market concerns in his first expansive interview since he went solo 18 months ago.
"When we get across-the-board unemployment then we’ll get an across-the-board downturn in house prices; it’s just a matter of time," Morgan Stanley’s former head of global developed markets and now publisher of Downunder Daily advised when asked by the Australian Financial Review on how vulnerable the housing market is.
"I don’t think there’s anything exceptional about our housing market, except that we’ve gone 23 years without a downturn," he added.
"Far better to take some excess out of the market now."
On monetary policy he suggested "you either get nothing or more than two [cuts]".
"If the leading indicators of employment roll over, then for me recession is the most likely outcome," Minack said.
"We have national domestic demand growth of 1%. Here in NSW it’s 4.5% while in the rest of the country it’s falling.
"We know this year that residential investment will contribute less to growth, we know car workers will start to get fired.
"We know mining capex starts to accelerate to the downside.
"The one thing that looks half-good are leading indicators of employment.
"The ANZ and ABS jobs ads, and the components of the monthly purchasing managers index, look OK.
"But if they roll over we’ve got a problem, and already we’ve seen them wobble, which is partly due to politics.
"One of the few areas of bipartisanship we’ve had over the past dozen years is both parties have agreed to be short term and second rate!"
When asked by the AFR's Patrick Commins what are the big global risks, Minack pointed to central bank credibility.
"If (European Central Bank president Mario) Draghi was a stock he’d be on a P/E of 200! (US Fed chair Janet) Yellen’s on 100.
"When that bubble pops, all hell will break loose again, and there you really just want to be in cash."
In October, Minack said while many people have been wrong calling a collapse in the Australian property market, he still saw the sector, along with investing in the major banks, as great risks to the economy in the year ahead.
“Australia has not had a housing bubble blow-up or a recession but let’s not forget at other times [market bears] have made money from it, so they are willing to give it another go.
"My advice is . . . I think it is a little too early. I think down the track this will be a problem.
"I’m not so sure you look for this to be a problem in Australia on a six-month view,” said Minack.
Minack's comments came just ahead of ANZ announcing its latest survey showed job advertisements rose a further 1.8% m/m in December to record their seventh consecutive monthly rise (in seasonally adjusted terms). 
Job ads have now trended higher for 14 months and are up 11.4% over the year to December.
The ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the data was an encouraging sign that labour demand was firming. 
"Annual growth in job advertisements is now at 11.4%, a moderate rate by historical standards but the fastest rate in over 3½ years. 
"The improving trend in job ads appears to be at odds with the official employment data which continues to depict a rising unemployment rate. 
"In all likelihood, this divergence can be explained by a higher than usual rate of job losses in the economy. 
"The good news is that the economy continues to produce new employment opportunities.
"The bad news is that this has not been quite enough to counteract the flow of new workers into the economy plus the on-going loss of jobs in certain sectors.”
“As a result labour market conditions can be described as soft which will continue to cap wage increases.
"Together with the recent decline in oil prices, this will feed through to relatively subdued inflation outcomes through 2015.
"For monetary policy, the most likely course remains for the RBA to keep rates in a holding pattern for most of 2015.
"However a softer inflation outlook suggests the RBA could have a little more wriggle room than previously anticipated to support business and consumer confidence.
"Right now we think the best course of action is for the RBA to maintain a steady hand on interest rates. 
"But with global energy costs falling substantially, and inflation likely to be lower than previously thought, there is increasing scope for Australian interest rates to fall a little over the first half of 2015,” Warren Hogan said.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Unemployment the key in 2015 house price direction: Gerard Minack

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s private debt dynamics have been thoroughly <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/10/australias-addiction-to-private-debt/">explored elsewhere</a>, but less well understood is the country’s position relative to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_for_Economic_Co-operation_and_Development" target="_blank">OECD</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC" target="_blank">BRIC</a> nations.
Thankfully, the Bank for International Settlements (<a href="https://www.bis.org/" target="_blank">BIS</a>) provides a useful database of unconsolidated household, non-financial business and total sector debts to enable a meaningful comparison.
The difference between consolidated and unconsolidated debts is an important consideration. The former constitutes debt that is netted out within the sector, and only records debts owed to other sectors, while the latter is the actual debt a sector owes, irrespective of to whom. Unconsolidated debts are typically larger than consolidated debts.
Caution must be taken when using measures of consolidated debts as it assumes intra-sector solvency; an assumption the global financial crisis (GFC) revealed to be precarious. Consolidated debts disguise the risk of intra-sector debts that can metastasise and threaten financial stability.
In retrospect, Ireland, Spain and the US are three countries that clearly experienced debt-financed housing bubbles, thus providing a useful benchmark for comparison. Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio is clearly higher than both Spain and the US at their peaks, and remains only slightly below Ireland’s peak. <img src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Egan_Soos_01.png" alt="">
In the BIS dataset comprising 34 nations, Australia has the unenviable status of ranking fourth-highest, only below that of Denmark, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Ironically, the pathology of financial capitalism drove the world’s leading social democratic state into accumulating the largest household debt ratio, peaking at close to 140% in Q2 2009.
A range of factors may have boosted the income flows of Danish households and enabled such accumulation: a low unemployment rate relative to the Eurozone nations, very low income inequality, the world’s highest minimum wage, and a generous social welfare system.
As of Q2 2014 (the latest available BIS data), the Netherlands is just 0.3% higher than Australia. As the former deleverages, Australia should rank third-highest by the next quarter. The ratios have remained stubbornly high in both Denmark and the Netherlands despite deleveraging, as their weak economies have resulted in falling nominal GDP (the denominator).
<img src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Egan_Soos_02.png" alt="">
Australia’s total debt to GDP ratio peaked at 190% in Q2 2009, before falling slightly as the non-financial business debt ratio fell. As of Q2 2014, the total debt ratio was 189%, and is expected to set a new peak in the next quarter or so.
<img src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Egan_Soos_03.png" alt="">
The following table lists the debt ratios for the OECD and BRIC nations. For some nations, household and non-financial business sector debts are not available, but total debt data are available for all. The non-financial business sector debt ratios are on the high end for Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, likely reflecting their generous international business taxation policies.
<img src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Egan_Soos_04.png" alt="">
The BIS has done a commendable job in gathering long-term unconsolidated data from the OECD and BRIC nations and making it publicly available. It would be helpful if the data was further classified into categories of personal, mortgage and non-banking financial sector debt, as the latter is important when analysing banking and financial cycles.
As household debt has boomed exponentially over the last two decades, the savings of the household sector has plunged. According to the official household savings ratio provided by the ABS, it briefly became negative during the early 2000s, and then rebounded as the GFC shocked households into saving more. <img src="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/EganSoos5.png" alt="">
In 2013, <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/11/is-australias-high-household-savings-rate-an-illusion/" target="_blank">analysis</a> by Credit Suisse revealed that the official ratio included superannuation contributions and extra principal repayments, which arguably should not be counted as disposable savings. After controlling for these two artefacts, the ratio falls significantly, exhibiting a persistently negative trend since 1997.
The household sector’s savings situation is dire, as reported by <a href="https://www.mebank.com.au/media/1518946/213737-HFCR_FINAL-iPAD.pdf" target="_blank">ME Bank</a> in a 2014 report:
<ul>
<li>Only 46% of households reported the ability to save each month;</li>
<li>Only 32% would easily be able to raise $3,000 in an emergency;</li>
<li>50% aren’t confident they have enough savings to last if unemployed for three months;</li>
<li>35% reported having less than $1,000 cash on hand;</li>
<li>17% have less than $100 in savings;</li>
<li>60% have less than $10,000 in savings; and</li>
<li>In 2009, Australians were saving a median $300 per year (<a href="https://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Bibliography/Other_Publications/pre2010/AMP.NATSEM_Saving_Tomorrow_Report.pdf" target="_blank">AMP/NATSEM</a>).</li>
</ul>
Australia’s private sector is grossly over-indebted, especially the household sector. The hysteria surrounding Australia’s non-existent public budget ‘emergency’ is a smokescreen cloaking the critical household budget crisis. The fictional narrative concerning public debt arises from an unshakeable adherence to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-Dethroned/dp/1848139926" target="_blank">pseudo-scientific economic theory</a> and class war, such as ‘justified’ public austerity policies which target the poor and marginalised.
Meanwhile, the public is distracted from the true threat: the unrestrained private spending spree that further enhance the power, profit and authority of the horde of private monopolists, usurers, speculators, rent seekers, free riders, financial robber barons, control frauds and indolent rich.
The current dynamics of the political and economic system means private debts will continue to spiral out of control, until the catastrophically-inefficient FIRE sector inevitably implodes. Nevertheless, the current housing booms in Melbourne and Sydney show no sign of abating in the short-term, with 2012 an opportune time to purchase according to the ‘<a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/12/property-speculation-to-boom-in-2015/" target="_blank">Speculative Index</a>’, which measures the irrational exuberance embedded in prices.
If the real estate fever gripping the nation does not break soon, Australia may well secure the top OECD ranking for the most over-indebted household sector. A financial crisis beckons, for history documents that extraordinary over-lending routinely precipitates chaos; falsifying expert claims that ‘this time is different’.
Paul D. Egan was previously employed as a supervisor and policy officer at the state government level. He holds a BSc Hons (Class I) and co-authored, with Philip Soos, Bubble Economics: Australian Land Speculation 1830 – 2013. He may be contacted at <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/victorian-politicians-136-million-property-holdings/paul.egan@openmailbox.org" target="_blank">paul.egan@openmailbox.org</a>
Philip Soos is a postgraduate candidate at Deakin University, and holds IT and MBA degrees from Swinburne and RMIT Universities. His website is<a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/victorian-politicians-136-million-property-holdings/www.philipsoos.com" target="_blank"> https://www.philipsoos.com/</a> and can be contacted at <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/victorian-politicians-136-million-property-holdings/psoos@deakin.edu.au" target="_blank">psoos@deakin.edu.au</a>
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/" target="_blank">MacroBusiness</a>.
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Australian private debt points to a potential financial crisis

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The latest ABS housing approval statistics indicated a record high, but the results have been varied from state to state.
New South Wales approvals actually dropped over the November period, explains Urban Taskforce chief executive Chris Johnson.
“The big drop is in apartment approvals which only reached 1,968 approvals in November 2014 compared to 2,668 approvals in November 2013,” he said. The month recorded a 1.4% drop for New South Wales, largely due to a 3.0% drop in approvals for detached houses. Multi-unit approvals were actually up by 0.1%.
“Victoria is leading the country with 5,009 home approvals in November compared to 3,958 for NSW which is a significantly larger state,” he explained.
Meanwhile, the Housing Industry Association NSW’s executive director David Bare said that despite the modest decline, the overall activity remains healthy and does point to a strong industry.
“Late in 2014 we saw fewer approvals of multi-unit dwellings compared with the record highs achieved in 2013. However there is a strong pipeline and monthly figures can be quite volatile,” said Bare.
“It is also pleasing to see the recovery in detached housing that took place throughout 2012 and 2013 has been maintained right throughout 2014,” he said.
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How did New South Wales building approvals fare?

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The Reserve Bank's Chart Pack is always worth a gander, being consistently and independently produced... and free from spin.
You can view the full chart pack <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index" target="_blank">here</a>.
Let's run through what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has found this month for households and the housing market.
Part 1: Households and finances
Retail sales growth is humming along both in terms of values and volumes, largely driven by Sydney retail.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%201.gif" alt="">
Savings ratios have been elevated since the financial crisis as households shored up their finances, but the ratio now appears to be gradually declining again as low interest rates encourage investment in growth assets.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%202.gif" alt="">
Consumer sentiment has been knocked around a little by budgets and other adverse news, but remain fairly close to where it has been averaging for the last 34 years.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%203.gif" alt="">
Household wealth in Australia is now at record highs in absolute terms. In terms of net worth as a percentage of annual household disposable income, asset values are growing nicely, and liabilities are holding steady.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%204.gif" alt="">
Interest paid as a percentage of household disposable income has declined in tandem with mortgage rates . Indeed, mortgage serviceability is at its best level in more than a decade.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%205.gif" alt="">
Part 2: The housing market
Stimulated by rising dwelling prices, building approvals brushed record highs, but have now seemingly passed their peak. We will see an oversupply of dwellings <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/melbourne-continues-to-hammer-high-rise" target="_blank">in a few regions</a> – one would be wise to steer clear of these, of course.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%206.gif" alt="">
Housing loan approvals rise to record highs, largely driven by investors in this cycle, the direct result of low borrowing rates.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%207.gif" alt="">
And finally, to housing prices. As we expected some years ago, due to an inherent undersupply of dwelling stock and infrastructure, Sydney prices are soaring towards $1 million.
With both the M2 and the M7 closed again earlier this week, and barely a day passing without news of diabolical traffic woes, expect there to be a continuing surge of demand for properties located close to key transport hubs such as rail or light rail links.
<img src="/images/2015/01/8/graph%208.gif" alt="">
Elsewhere, Melbourne has been looking peaky for months but has held up reasonably well to date.
Perth's market is trending slightly up but only moderately, while Canberra is now all set for a downturn. The Adelaide market – and particularly its economy – remains unconvicing,
Counter-cyclical investors should be scoping out opportunities in Brisbane, where housing finance is gathering momentum – as reconfirmed this week by <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/mortgage-index-january-2015/" target="_blank">AFG's December Mortgage Index data</a>.
 
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