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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Joel Robinson

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

Economy

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The Australian Performance of Construction Index has seen the industry's contraction slow over March, with the index up 2.0 points to 46.2 over the month.
The '50 point level' is that which separates expansion from contraction in the industry and it is the third consecutive month since the industry returned to growth that the index has been below this balance level.
The Australian Industry group director - public policy, Peter Burn, said that there was a consolidation of recent gains in the houe building sector. He also noted a recovery of commercial construction.
Despite these positive shoots, a pull-back in the previously bullish apartment building sector and a decline in engineering construction kept the index sluggish.
"As is the case with the broader economy, the rebalancing of the construction sector as mining-related activity slows still has a considerable way to go," said Burn.
He pointed to hopes that momentum can be maintained in the residential construction sectors, with attention to turning to required investment in non-mining related engineering construction.
Meanwhile, Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale noted that despite the positive signs at the close of 2013, it was disappointing to see a full first quarter of 2014 in negative territory.
"The detached house activity component remains expansionary, if only just, and 2014 should be a healthy year for new home building activity," said Dale.
"What the sector and broader economy needs, however, is a sustained recovery in new home building commensurate with average construction levels being considerably higher over coming decades than those achieved over the past 20 years," he said.
"The prospect of achieving this outcome would be significantly bolstered by a national taxation reform agenda which included the removal of the excessive and inefficient taxes levied on new home building."
House building did fall over the month, by 1.4 points, however it remained above the 50 mark - at 50.8, suggesting a stabilisation. Meanwhile, apartment building declined 1.0 points to 45.6 points.
Commercial construction declined by 3.4 points, to 56.5 points, with engineering construction up 5.8 points to 45.5 points.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

House building consolidating as apartment building pulls back: Australian PCI

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Regional banks have called on the Financial System Inquiry to address issues that they say have created competitive advantages for the big four banks in home lending and other financial services.
In a joint submission to the inquiry, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, BOQ, ME Bank and Suncorp Bank said the fall-out from the global financial crisis had favoured the major players.
“The banking landscape is now characterised by a higher degree of market concentration, consolidation and increasing dominance of the large banks relative to other providers,” the banks noted in their submission, which was prepared with the help of Pegasus Economics.
“While smaller banks and others provide customers with real alternatives and choice when it comes to financial services, these smaller participants do so at a distinct competitive disadvantage.”
Over the past few years, the major banks had become more vertically integrate with mortgage brokers and financial advice networks, which the regional banks’ submission claimed provided advantages in distributing home loans and other financial products.
The regional banks recommended the inquiry consider commissioning the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to survey the market to assess whether the major banks’ multi-brand strategies were confusing consumers about ownership.
“If it is found that confusion does exist, then a strong disclosure obligation must be introduced to ensure customers are making informed decisions,” the banks said in their submission.
The regional banks also noted that significant funding and cost advantages were available to the big banks deemed “systemically important” and that new regulatory and prudential requirements cost more, in relative terms, for the regional banks to implement.
They also claimed that asset requirements under the Basel capital adequacy framework made it more profitable for the big banks than for the regional banks to issue home loans.
The four big Australian banks, which had undertaken advanced Basel accreditation, were required to hold on average 1.3 cents of capital against each $1 of mortgage credit, UBS Securities Australia estimated. Banks operating under the standardised accreditation – including the regional participants – must hold up to three times more capital for the same loan.
The difference in capital requirements meant that the implied return on equity for ANZ to supply a home loan (estimated to be around 50 basis points) was 34.92% while the same mortgage delivered Bank of Queensland a return on equity of just 14.17%.
Other submissions to the Financial System Inquiry did not agree that competition in the mortgage market was inadequate.
The Reserve Bank of Australia in its submission said a good deal of focus had already been placed on competition in the mortgage market since the financial crisis and that competition in the market for small business loans was more of a concern.
“The [Reserve] Bank considers that this market should be the focus of inquiries regarding competition in lending, rather than the mortgage market,” it said.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ agreed in their separate submissions that the inquiry should focus on improving the depth and liquidity of debt markets, on ensuring regulatory standards were consistent and on improving consumers’ financial literacy.
ANZ said: “An open market should continue to be the primary mechanism for maintaining an efficient, competitive financial system. Improvements to retail bond markets and removal of interest withholding taxes would promote efficient competition.”
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zfielding-GvX3Uq9KTa

Regional banks highlight competitive disadvantages in Financial System Inquiry submission

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GUEST OBSERVATION
One of biggest issues to be addressed in last weekend’s WA Senate poll - and perhaps one of the most complex, too - was how best to maintain the state’s growth trajectory through the forthcoming period of transition.
Western Australia has undeniably seen the benefits from sustained economic growth over the course of the resources boom, with the state’s per capita gross income rising to around 50% above national levels in little over a decade.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/45584/width668/2z8jq8pc-1396569575.jpg" alt="">
Real per capita Gross State Income: WA and Australia, 1992 to 2013
However, the latest economic data does support the view that the WA economy has passed the peak of the construction phase of the commodities boom (characterised by growth in productive capacity, high employment and real wage growth). It is now moving to a production phase in which the state’s productive capacity is “put to work” in driving resource volume and export growth.
Early signs of this transition can be seen in reduced capital investment growth, lower participation and rising unemployment. WA’s unemployment rate has almost always been below the national rate, but there are signs that the unemployment and participation gaps are narrowing.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/45580/width668/pkb3vxgg-1396569393.jpg" alt="">
Unemployment and labour force participation: WA and Australia, 1991–2013
Relatedly, the changing workforce and skills requirements for WA require careful thought. Skilled migration, whether from interstate or from overseas, can only do so much to meet the changing demand for labour in the state. The shifting industrial composition also requires an education and training system flexible enough to retrain WA workers to match the needs of industry.
Housing policy was also an important battleground in this weekend’s elections.
Industry group affordability indicators published recently suggest that WA isn’t significantly out of line with other states and territories. However, most of these measures dwell on cost burdens for the “typical” family and house, disguising some big economic and social issues facing policymakers.
The Perth housing market has a real problem providing affordable rentals to low income families, or the right types of properties in the right locations. The housing sector points to high construction, regulation and approvals costs as the main impediment to the efficient supply of affordable housing. Whatever the cause, these issues are common topics of conversation for West Australians.
Australia raises proportionately more in direct taxation than the OECD average (around 60%, two thirds of which is personal income taxation) but significantly less from indirect taxes (mainly GST) - 13% against an OECD average of around 19%.
Federal Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson this week rehearsed the positive arguments for shifting the balance of income taxation and GST more towards the latter, but the context is not textbook. If you had to raise more revenue as a government to honour public spending commitments on NDIS, health and schools reform, support the ageing baby boomer population, and defend against falling terms of trade, which would you choose?
<blockquote>
Housing policy was also an important battleground in this weekend’s elections.
</blockquote>
The subtle increases in direct tax revenues through fiscal drag can stretch only so far, and more overt increases in company or personal income taxation face strong political headwinds. It does seem unnecessarily restrictive for the Federal government to deliver effective tax policy in more challenging economic times with its GST hand tied behind its back. However, consumption taxes may be more efficient, but they’re more regressive too.
WA households have experienced significant real incomes growth over the course of the resources boom, not just in absolute terms but relative to the national trend. But this growth hasn’t been distributed evenly, and the impact of an increase in GST tends to fall regressively on lower income earners who are less able to substitute away from consumption.
With the falling allocation of the GST wealth share to WA - down to 4.2% - placing more pressure on the state’s spending program, there is a need to ensure that economic policy responses don’t contribute to further increases in inequality beyond those already seen.
When it comes to GST shares, it’s hard to argue that WA gets out what it puts in. However, whether the GST return to WA is “fair” (or at least reasonable) depends on the position one takes on the redistributive philosophy underlying the allocation of GST shares across states and territories.
Alan Duncan is director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and Bankwest Research Chair in Economic Policy at Curtin University.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/25135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre is an independent economic and social research organisation located within Curtin Business School at Curtin University. The Centre was established in 2012 with support from Bankwest (a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia) and Curtin University. The views in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.
The views in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views of Curtin University and/or Bankwest or any of their affiliates.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jake-cSmGT7VXVf

Enough talk: the economic policies that WA needs now

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Australia faces medium term challenges of paying for the things it wants to do as a society and finding enough workers as the population ages, Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens says.
Stevens strongly backed Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson who <a href="/expert-insights/finance/treasury-boss-hints-at-the-need-for-a-broader-gst">this week outlined</a> the huge calls on the budget over the coming years and urged a reweighing of the tax system to rely more on indirect taxes such as the GST.
Speaking in Brisbane, Stevens said it was becoming clear that programs were not fully funded by taxes over the medium term. “Our situation is not dire by the standards of other countries but neither are the issues trivial. A conversation needs to be had about this,” he said.
He described the Parkinson speech as “very important”.
Stevens said it was understandable that with announcements of job losses people focused on where future jobs would come from. But the problem was more likely to be not enough workers, rather than not enough jobs.
At present the number of new entrants to the workforce exceeded those retiring. 10 years from now, those numbers could be roughly equal, without a further rise in labour participation by older people.
“Demographic trends point in the direction of a smaller population working, and a larger proportion needing support in their later years, even as public demands on the finances for the provision of social goods increase.
“That looks like a pretty uncomfortable combination of trends.”
He said the answer to reconciling them was growth. To some extent we would hopefully be able to lessen the problem through higher labour participation, for longer. “But most of all we will need higher productivity of those working. That means making the system as flexible as possible and as encouraging as possible to innovation.”
For Australia one potential source of productivity improvement lay in the fact that across a range of sectors US productivity was much higher than our own. There were possibly substantial “catch up gains” to us by adopting better practices.
To those worried about projected job losses, Stevens pointed out that new jobs “will come from areas that we don’t see yet”.
“In the middle of 1991, at the low point of the last serious recession, people were very pessimistic about future employment prospects. The rate of unemployment was in double digits.
“But today, over 20 years later, there are nearly four million new jobs in the economy as there were then. The rate of unemployment, although it has gone up recently, is just slightly more than half what it was at its peak in the 1990s.
“It’s worth noting that none of those additional net jobs came from manufacturing,” Stevens said.
MICHELLE GRATTAN is professorial fellow at the <a href="https://www.canberra.edu.au/" target="_blank">University of Canberra</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/25216/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. 
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Finding workers and money our main worries: Glenn Stevens

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Modern governments believe that during budget framing, it is politically savvy to parade the pain. We saw it with Labor and the Coalition is doing the same.
There are scary scenarios of what would happen without remediation, with warnings about problem areas. Some surprises will be held for the night, but other measures will be strategically “leaked” beforehand.
Tony Abbott, in Perth campaigning for the West Australian Senate election, let it be known he was chairing Wednesday’s meeting of cabinet’s expenditure review committee.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen declared it was the first time in Australian history a PM had chaired the ERC, claiming it showed dysfunction at the highest level.
This was nonsense. The government could quickly counter that Bob Hawke, John Howard and Kevin Rudd had also done so.
But it was surprising Abbott gave such a high profile to this “razor gang” meeting.
The ERC is all about nasties and, after all, Labor is making the prospect of deep budget cuts a centrepiece of its WA Senate campaigning. Abbott seemed to be providing ammunition. On the other hand, he could take the view Labor had the bullets anyway so he might as well play the longer game.
Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson publicly chimed into the pre- budget debate with a speech reinforcing the government’s lines about spending growth in the big areas.
But Parkinson also sent a public message to the government for later about what it should do on taxation.
With Hockey shining attention on health and pension costs, Parkinson documented the escalation.
Total Commonwealth spending on health is set to rise from $64.7 billion in nominal terms in 2013-14 to $74.6 billion in 2016-17, and to $116 billion in 2023-24.
The Commonwealth’s three main pension payments - for the aged, those on disability support and carers – will grow at an annual 6% in nominal terms over the forward estimates, adding $13 billion to annual payments by 2016-17, and another $39 billion by 2023-24. “Of this nearly $52 billion in additional payments in 2023-24, compared to 2013-14, over half is a result of indexation with the remainder due to increases in the number of recipients.”
That seems a fair hint that both drivers are being looked at. It should be remembered that successive governments have been trying to curtail the numbers on the disability pension but it has seemed a losing battle. It’s never as easy as it looks in theory.
Parkinson then turned to the tax side. His argument, aimed well beyond this budget and directed squarely at the political masters he will leave in December, is crystal clear. Australia needs a tax system it relies more on indirect tax, less on direct tax. The king of indirect taxes is, of course, the GST.
Parkinson pointed to one rather surprising fact, given the tax debates we’ve been through over many years. “Despite reforms that broaden the tax base (such as the GST), and decisions that have lowered corporate and personal tax rates across the decades, the share of direct and indirect taxes (as well as Australia’s reliance on income taxes) has changed little since the 1950s.”
Australia had relatively high reliance on direct taxes as a proportion of revenue raised compared with other OECD countries, he noted, before observing that: “Research consistently says that reduced reliance on income taxes and increased reliance on other, more efficient sources of revenue, including indirect taxes, can support higher growth and higher living standards by increasing workforce participation and lifting productivity.”
The problem is that “without conscious change, Australia’s tax mix will move in the opposite direction as personal income tax increases through fiscal drag”.
“We will move even further in this direction if, as we anticipate, the relative share of total indirect taxes (including GST) continues its long-term decline. Contributing to this decline is the non-indexation of fuel excise (unlike other excise rates) and a rising proportion of consumption outside the GST net, for example, in increased health expenditure.”
Parkinson warned that “continued increases in the personal income tax burden will hit lower and middle income earners with higher marginal and average tax rates. This will have adverse labour force participation impacts, while sharpening incentives for tax minimisation by higher income earners”.
The globalised economy meant Australia would be under pressure to cut the company tax rate.
“Given the pressure to return fiscal drag and to reduce the burden of corporate income tax, it will be a challenge to maintain the current levels of revenue over the medium term, let alone the increases required to achieve the budget projections.”
In the past, Parkinson said, tax reform had largely been pursued through broadening tax bases as an offset for lowering tax rates.
“However, a key challenge for the upcoming White Paper on Taxation will be to consider the mix of taxes, including whether there is a role for a greater contribution from indirect taxes.”
The opportunity were there to plot a path to a better tax system and the dangers clear if it was not done.
“If we do not start making these changes and simply keep drifting along we will be increasingly vulnerable to the next global crisis and will also lose out on the opportunities presented by the rising Asian middle class. The exceptionalism of this ‘lucky country’ will become just a distant, ironic memory and our children may really end up ‘doing it tough’”.
So there you have it. Parkinson, axed by the government (though extended until year’s end) won’t be around for the battles after the white paper, which has a long time table.
But he has signposted another lot of unpalatable truths. In terms of painful decisions ahead, this budget is only the start of it for the Abbott government, which hates the idea of tax increases, fears the politics of a robust debate about needing a higher, broader GST and has promised to take any major tax changes to the election.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/25161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
Michelle Grattan is professorial fellow at the <a href="https://www.canberra.edu.au/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">University of Canberra</a>.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Treasury boss hints at the need for a broader GST

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We’ve now entered the traditional pre-budget softening-up period in which treasurers engage in expectations management ahead of the fiscal set-piece of the year in May. But even given that, Joe Hockey is treating us as complete idiots.
The line Hockey has been pushing for some days now, and which he gave a big push to yesterday in a flurry of media appearances, is that not merely did Labor hide the level of deficits in the current budget cycle, but that it left a series of hidden spending commitments in the unpublished years beyond forward estimates. Hockey has been circulating a document to journalists portrayed in the media as a “Treasury analysis” that shows how “the Coalition inherited an unsustainable budget position” and Labor “hid [expenditure] from the public”. Hockey would like us to see him as a budgetary innocent who has found himself in the middle of a fiscal minefield planted by Labor.
<a href="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/BRIEFING-NOTE.pdf"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-431677" src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014-04-01_11-33-411.jpg" alt="" width="520" height="180"></a>
Well <a href="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/BRIEFING-NOTE.pdf" target="_blank">here’s the document</a>, and it isn’t a “Treasury analysis” — it’s prepared by Hockey’s media adviser, former Australian Financial Review journalist Gemma Daley. And if Hockey seriously expects us to believe his latest argument, he must have nothing but contempt for us. This is Hockey yesterday: “We didn’t anticipate that everything else would be of equal or larger scale as a tsunami coming across the water. The fact is Labor’s left us with a massive forecast increase in foreign aid, a massive increase in defence – for example in one year, there’s meant to be a real increase in defence spending of 13%, a 66% increase in foreign aid.”
<blockquote>
Hockey would like us to see him as a budgetary innocent who has found himself in the middle of a fiscal minefield planted by Labor.
</blockquote>
At another media conference, he said: “If no action was taken on the budget, what the fifth-year deficit would look like, contrary to what both Labor promised was a surplus, if no action was taken, based on the approximately 6% increase in expenditure between the fourth year and the fifth year, which Labor locked in on NDIS, on Gonski, on overseas aid, on hospitals, on defence …”
Well, um, tsunamis are actually tiny when they’re on the ocean — but never mind that, let’s look at the detail. Labor in fact revealed the funding for the National Disability Insurance Scheme — or DisabilityCare as it had been renamed — in the budget last May, with new spending broken down out to 2019:
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-431667" src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/2014-04-01_11-24-28.jpg" alt="" width="501" height="179">
In addition to the numbers in the budget papers, there was a specific “glossy” with funding graphs for <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2013-14/content/glossy/NDIS_policy/download/NDIS.pdf" target="_blank">DisabilityCare</a> and one for <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2013-14/content/glossy/gonski_policy/download/NPSI.pdf" target="_blank">education funding</a> as well, which was still being finalised in deals with the states. The increase in foreign aid was also in both the budget papers and a <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2013-14/content/ministerial_statements/download/AusAid_MS.pdf" target="_blank">ministerial statement by Bob Carr</a>  — not that the government got any credit for it, because it was actually a reduction, with the government’s Millennium Development Goal commitment to lifting foreign aid to 0.5% of gross national income put back another year to 2017. The government spelt out its planned increase in foreign aid up to and including 2017-18.
In fact in question time last week, Labor invited the Prime Minister to spell out the government’s MDG policy, which he duly did: aid is to reach 0.5% of GNI when the budget returns to surplus. Which raises the question of why, in Hockey’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook in December, Hockey left Labor’s MDG aid funding increase intact, in defiance of the government’s own policy. The answer, of course, was that it would inflate the budget deficit for 2017 and beyond.
As for defence, the Gillard government <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/2013/05/14/minister-for-defence-budget-2013-14-defence-budget-overview/" target="_blank">gave the portfolio a “guidance”</a> that it would receive around $220 billion in the six years from 2017-18, which Hockey’s document proposes to mean funding would leap 13% in 2017, when in fact the “guidance” reflects a growth rate in defence spending from 2017 lower than the average between now and 2017 of nearly 7%. And remember that Labor was repeatedly criticised fordecreasing defence spending — every armchair general and arms industry lobbyist in the joint was whinging about how we weren’t spending enough taxpayer money on buying gear from the US military-industrial complex. “Military spending slumps to 1930s level,” The Australian’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/military-spending-slumps-to-1930s-level/story-e6frg74x-1226352458112" target="_blank">Paul Kelly shrieked</a>. The 1930s theme — hint,appeasement!­ —  was picked up by the Coalition, including Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce. Abbott “aspired”, he said, to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP.
So, Labor were both neo-Chamberlain surrender monkeys for not spending enough on defence when in government and now, magically, reckless spendthrifts who committed too much to defence at the same time.
Hockey’s fiscal innocent act is a little hard to believe given we were told what an exhaustive, indeed exhausting, shadow ERC process Hockey was leading within the opposition at the time to establish its fiscal credibility.
And above all, there’s this point: if Hockey seriously believes his own claims about the budget beyond forward estimates, why did he remove Labor savings measures that offset future spending? Why did he remove the 15% tax on superannuation income over $100,000 a year, costing the budget billions beyond forward estimates, for the benefit of high income earners? Why did he restore the Fringe Benefits Tax rort on novated leases — remember Joe being photographed in front of a sports car? And why have Hockey and his leader pushed for the abolition of the mining tax, which even in its crippled form, according to Hockey’s own MYEFO, is worth more than $3 billion over forward estimates? Eventually it will be the only way of recovering some of the profits offshore owners of LNG and iron ore projects will make and ship overseas (over 60% of these projects are foreign owned or controlled).
Then there’s the silly decision to hand $8.8 billion of borrowed money to the Reserve Bank in one hit, when it doesn’t need the capital. And the sale of Medibank Private — a $4-5 billion contribution to the budget — will be spent on roads because Abbott wants to be an “infrastructure prime minister”, when it could cut the budget deficit or the debt. That could be $13-14 billion off the deficit and debt right there — or an interest saving of more than half-a-billion dollars a year.
Hockey is talking about sharing the budget burden around, but that’s only after the government plans to increase its own spending for political purposes and sought to hand billions of dollars in tax revenue back to foreign mining companies, large carbon emitters and the well-off in the community — revenue that would have offset exactly the spending on education, disability and foreign aid that Hockey is now claiming to have only just discovered.
This article originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Crikey</a>.
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Joe Hockey treating Australian public as fiscal fools ahead of the federal budget

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The Reserve Bank has kept rates on hold today, at a record low 2.5%. While debate rages over what might happen next, it appears many are predicting a rise in the last quarter of the year.
RP Data's Tim Lawless noted that the housing market statistics are likely to be the factor causing the Reserve Bank some additional deliberation.
"Dwelling values were up 2.3% in March taking the cumulative increase in dwelling values to 15.8% over the current growth cycle which commenced in June 2012," he said.
"While the headline growth rate is very high, it is really Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, which are responsible for driving such high capital gains.  Dwelling values are up 22% and 17% across these two cities since June 2012."
He noted that it's not just these capital gains that will be a concern, but the amount of investment in the market, with investors comprising 38% of all new housing finance commitments. The last time investor numbers were this strong was before the housing boom in 2003.
"Clearly the rate of value appreciation across the Australian housing market has been unsustainably strong over the short-term, however the national economy is seeing a great deal of benefit from the increased level of both developer and buyer confidence which the RBA is likely to see as a positive outcome from the currently exuberant housing market conditions," he said, pointing to a potential increase in the future if value growth continues along its current mark.
"If value growth continues along the current trajectory through I think the Reserve Bank will be forced to take action to quell the level of exuberance via higher interest rates," he said.
This ties in with Property Observer's previously reporting an <a href="/expert-insights/finance/borrowers-warned-of-interest-rate-hikes-by-late-2014">increasing number of economists pointing to a late-2014 increase</a>.
Meanwhile, L Janusz Hooker, deputy chairman of LJ Hooker, said that leaving the cash rate at 2.5% should assist prices stabilising following a year of growth. Hooker also siad that the rate easing cycle is over.
"We have been seeing the benefits of those cuts every weekend at open inspections, people are still out house hunting or looking for investment properties," said Hooker.
"Buyers know it is likely rates will be on the increase some time in the next year and are factoring it into their budget."
Michelle Hutchison, money expert for Finder.com.au said that it's cheaper than ever to switch home loans at present, making the RBA's decision to keep rates on hold good news for consumers.
"More lenders are waiving application fees now than they were three years ago, and coupled with the banning of early exit fees on variable home loans in 2011, it's now cheaper to refinance than what borrowers may think," said Hutchison.
"The average cost to switch now out of variable loans that charge these fees is $719 compared to almost $900 in 2011," she said, noting that borrowers shouldn't wait for any further cuts from the Reserve Bank before seeking out a better deal.
The lack of change today was <a href="/expert-insights/finance/paul-bloxham-expects-rba-to-keep-rates-on-hold-next-week">also predicted by HSBC's Paul Bloxham last week</a>.
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Reserve bank holds interest rates, but property prices make an increase likely

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Glenn Stevens' April statement:
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent.
Growth in the global economy was a bit below trend in 2013, but there are reasonable prospects of a pick-up this year. The United States economy, while affected by adverse weather, continues its expansion and the euro area has begun a recovery from recession, albeit a fragile one. Japan has recorded a significant pick-up in growth. China's growth remains generally in line with policymakers' objectives, though it may have slowed a little in early 2014. Commodity prices have declined from their peaks but in historical terms remain high.
Financial conditions overall remain very accommodative. Long-term interest rates and most risk spreads remain low. Equity and credit markets are well placed to provide adequate funding, though for some emerging market countries conditions are considerably more challenging than they were a year ago.
In Australia, the economy grew at a below trend pace in 2013. Recent information suggests slightly firmer consumer demand over the summer and foreshadows a solid expansion in housing construction. Some indicators of business conditions and confidence have improved from a year ago and exports are rising. But at the same time, resources sector investment spending is set to decline significantly and, at this stage, signs of improvement in investment intentions in other sectors are only tentative, as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing to expansion plans. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued.
The demand for labour has remained weak and, as a result, the rate of unemployment has continued to edge higher. It will probably rise a little further in the near term. Growth in wages has declined noticeably. If domestic costs remain contained, some moderation in the growth of prices for non-traded goods could be expected over time, which should keep inflation consistent with the target, even with lower levels of the exchange rate.
<blockquote>
Credit growth is slowly picking up. Dwelling prices have increased significantly over the past year.
</blockquote>
Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and savers continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is slowly picking up. Dwelling prices have increased significantly over the past year. The decline in the exchange rate from its highs a year ago will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, but less so than previously as a result of the rise over the past few months. The exchange rate remains high by historical standards.
Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand, and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.
In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.
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