Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Economy

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The ABS released the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5206.0Main+Features1Dec%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Australian National Accounts</a> for Q4 2014 which showed the economy growing by an underwhelming 0.5% in the quarter and 2.5% over the year.
In trend terms growth was just 2.3% over 2014, which is below the long run average.
Looking on the bright side this completes a remarkable 93 consecutive quarters since Australia experienced a recession.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xEIAcp4LYc0/VPaSsFjrqjI/AAAAAAAATgw/pKuWUjzn7KU/s1600/GDP1.jpg">
In truth, though, this was another soft result and a slowing rate of annualised GDP growth which appears to be commensurate with further monetary policy easing.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4cGxCCHnBag/VPaSsRwfC2I/AAAAAAAATg8/0-OVfUsFlXA/s1600/GDP2.jpg"> 
Domestic demand led by Sydney
The Domestic Final Demand picture showed that as expected the strength of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have boosted demand locally.
Dwelling construction and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/building-approvals-smash-record-high" target="_blank">record high building approvals</a> are firing in both capital cities and the "wealth effect" of rising dwelling prices has <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/retail-volumes-increase-in-q4" target="_blank">improved consumption in both New South Wales and Victoria</a>.
State Final Demand which is at best only an indicative measure remained weak in Canberra (ACT) and in the southern states of South Australia and Tasmania.
The negative year on year readings for Western Australia and Queensland are not unexpected, reflective of mining construction tailing away and a number of <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/death-of-thousand-cuts" target="_blank">diabolical regional economies</a> at the local level.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fntRY-bk6b0/VPaSsVG5YXI/AAAAAAAATg0/RlVdkNmSgGo/s1600/GDP4.jpg">
Contributors to growth
GDP growth of 0.5% for the quarter was held aloft by net exports. While non-residential construction acted as a drag it was heartening to see new housing investment contributing 0.2ppts to growth. 
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5DRqvlhjVfQ/VPaSuxcDSwI/AAAAAAAAThc/4O1cOiPstc8/s1600/gdp3.jpg">
Dwelling investment
Indeed the "new dwellings" component of dwelling investment improved substantially by 12.4% over the past year, and the Reserve Bank will be keen to see this continue over the next couple of years as mining construction declines.
Note that major renovations contributed absolutely zip to GDP - a stunning 0.0ppts.
Although Sydney has been through a renovations mini-boom, across the rest of the country the trend is at best moribund.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wLlfIgjgeuk/VPaStGcwTqI/AAAAAAAAThk/JcrrI8BAVyk/s1600/GDP5.jpg">
National and household income 
While real net national disposable income increased by 0.4% in Q4 to be 0.5% over the year, in per capita terms this reading did not increase in Q4 and was negative in 2014. 
Meanwhile the most recent <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/weak-commodity-prices-pave-way-for-more" target="_blank">commodities index release</a> showed that Australia's terms of trade are set to continue declining in Q1 2015.
At the household income level employee compensation growth has slowed markedly following on from a <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/wages-rise-25-percent" target="_blank">wage price index at a survey low reading</a> of +2.5%, although gross disposable income fared somewhat better across 2014.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GYBsvfA-FOw/VPaStX6RBOI/AAAAAAAAThE/zA9HcTQqyn0/s1600/GDP6.jpg">
While interest paid on dwellings began to rise again through 2014 - and logically we should expect to see this chart rising over time due to Australia's high rates of immigration - mortgage serviceability for existing homeowners on variable rate mortgages has improved enormously since Q3 2008.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-G6fajQbUcCc/VPaSuWaqblI/AAAAAAAAThU/2iXR0cYE7P8/s1600/GDP8.jpg">
The shape of the above chart mirrors the findings of the Reserve Bank's own submission to the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/inquiry-affordable-housing/" target="_blank">Inquiry into Affordable Housing</a> which found that repayments on new housing loans when charted against household disposable income had improved dramatically to be way below the average for the past decade.
Anyone with a variable rate mortgage over the past six years will attest to the same - not that this is much consolation for first home buyers in Sydney, granted. 
 The Wrap
Not entirely unexpectedly this was a soft result which marginally missed expectations and won't do a great deal to change the view that interest rates are likely be cut again before the end of H2 2015.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.
His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Major renovations contributed absolutely zip to GDP: Pete Wargent

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Interest rate cuts are losing their potential at stimulating the economy, Reserve Bank deputy governor Philip Lowe says.
Lowe said rate cuts were having little effect on household consumption because retirees and other savers were instead cutting back spending as their incomes fell in line with deposit rates.
"At the end of the day, the solution to the problems caused by the disconnect between the desire to save and the desire to invest cannot lie with monetary policy," he said in a speech in Sydney yesterday.
"Instead, it lies in measures to improve the investment environment so that once again there is strong productive demand for the use of our societies’ savings."
Lowe noted borrowers with debts have been using the lower rates to accelerate repayments rather than raising their spending.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph11.gif" target="_blank" title="Graph 11: Mortgage Repayments"><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph11-small.gif" alt="Graph 11: Mortgage Repayments"></a>
Lowe said monetary policy was becoming less effective worldwide, in a speech titled, 'Low Inflation in a World of Monetary Stimulus' to the Goldman Sachs Annual Global Macro Economic Conference.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph10.gif" target="_blank" title="Graph 10: Housing Equity Withdrawal"><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph10-small.gif" alt="Graph 10: Housing Equity Withdrawal"></a>
“In the years leading up to the (global financial) crisis, a reduction in interest rates could be reliably predicted to encourage such a response,” Lowe said.
“Credit was easily accessible, economic volatility in many economies was low and people were prepared to borrow.
"In today’s world, things look quite different.”
“Many borrowers have responded to the lower interest rates of recent years by paying off their loan a little faster, rather than increasing their spending.
“Conversely, it seems likely that those relying on interest income have reduced their spending by more than would previously have been the case.
 “Certainly, the many letters we have been receiving at the bank recent­ly would suggest this.
“In (this) earlier period, the level of interest rates that we have today would have caused a large boom in borrowing, but this has not occurred.”
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph9.gif" target="_blank" title="Graph 9: Household Saving and Debt"><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/images/sp-dg-2015-03-05-graph9-small.gif" alt="Graph 9: Household Saving and Debt"></a>
Dr Lowe said the same reaction to low interest rates could be seen in governments.
“Few governments have seen the very low intere­st rates as an opportunity to support long-term infrastructure investment at low cost.
“Rather, much as households have done, governments have taken advantage of the lower debt-servicing costs to help shore up their finances.”
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

There is no boom in borrowing says RBA

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia is in the midst of a structural economic change with the mining boom coming to an end as <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/02/australian-investment-pipeline-falls/" target="_blank">investment in the sector falls</a>. Tourism has been <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2011-12/content/bp1/html/bp1_bst4-03.htm" target="_blank">promoted by government</a> as a key source of future economic growth, with some <a href="https://www.professionalplanner.com.au/featured-posts/2015/02/08/winners-and-losers-as-economy-changes-gears-34162/" target="_blank">media reports</a> already stating that tourism has started to recover. But will it really be that easy to shift back from a resource-dependent to a tourism-led economy?
Tourism and the resources sector have cyclically been key exports and drivers of economic growth in Australia. However, the last decade’s mining boom has <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/documents/Economic-Industry/Economic_Impact_of_the_Current_Mining_Boom_on_the_Australian_Tourism_Industry_FINAL.pdf">negatively impacted</a> on the sector by inflating the exchange rate, increasing competition for labour and delivering a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016073831300159X" target="_blank">‘two-speed’ economy</a>.
During this boom, Australia’s resources sector has encroached on protected areas with iconic tourism attractions and protected areas, such as the <a href="/news">Great Barrier Reef</a>, increasing the risk of the region losing key assets that attract visitation. Importantly, the mining boom has heralded significant structural change in Australia’s economy, with little to no long-term planning for growth once it comes to an end.
A report by the <a href="/news">Griffith Institute for Tourism</a> has found that the transition back to tourism - particularly in regions that have become resource dependent - may be very difficult. Investigating two resource dependent regions in Queensland (Gladstone and Roma), the research found that the regions have become dependent on the resources sector and this has impacted tourism in many ways.
The key impacts of the boom in these regions include: reducing the tourism industry’s ability to attract and retain staff; increasing costs of accommodation, food and fuel for visitors and tourism employees; influencing tourism businesses to adapt to cater for the more lucrative resources sector workers (that is, installing dongas (portable buildings), building up-market motels, offering fine dining); reducing traditional tourism businesses profitability leading to their closure; and straining local infrastructure and support services upon which tourism depends.
The regions have reportedly suffered a decline in their aesthetics, reducing their appeal as tourism destinations. Combined with the busyness and limited amount of affordable accommodation, the traditional leisure markets now avoid or pass through the towns. In Gladstone the resources sector activity has also restricted visitor access to certain areas of the region and impacted on key natural assets that attract tourists, including the harbour and the Great Barrier Reef.
But probably the most concerning impact occurred in Roma, where there was a change in the strategic direction of the local council following the regional council amalgamations in 2008. Prior to the amalgamation, Roma was an example of regional tourism best practice, with a local tourism development officer working with the industry to develop products and market the region. Following the amalgamation, the council decided to grow the resources sector, which strengthened the sector’s capacity to do business in the region.
At the same time, the council struggled to understand and quantify the benefits of tourism, resulting in the revenue generated by tourism being viewed as inferior to the resources sector. The council’s shift in focus away from tourism led to a loss of tourism skills, advocacy and policy from the region. Since then, been very few new tourism developments and the existing tourism products have declined, deteriorated or adapted to service the resources sector.
Fortunately, the Council in Roma is now anticipating the end of the mining boom and have commenced efforts to rejuvenate tourism. However, this rejuvenation process might not be so simple or easy. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0261517794900892" target="_blank">Prior research </a> considering the rejuvenation of tourism following an oil and gas boom indicates that it can take a decade of significant product development and extensive marketing to attract the leisure tourist back to a region.
Another issue is that previously resource-dependent regions commonly attempt to attract high-yield tourists and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0160738395000615" target="_blank">re-image the region</a> by marketing the destination as dynamic and multi-cultural. This can reduce differentiation between destinations and undermine competitiveness.
This regional picture gives a glimpse to the challenges facing tourism nationally. Shifting the economy back towards tourism may be more difficult than expected. It’s not enough to just market Australia – significant reimaging will need to occur to change the perceptions tourists now have of Australia and its resource-dependent regions.
In addition, without good products and services, which have declined during the mining boom, the tourism industry will not be able to adequately service growing demand and there will be low levels of satisfaction.
Perhaps the most effective policy for ensuring tourism rejuvenation would have been to take a long-term perspective to development that recognised the value of tourism and developed strategies at the start of the mining boom to avoid the loss of valuable products, policy, expertise and skills. As it is, Australian tourism now faces an uphill battle.
Char-lee McLennan is research fellow, sustainable tourism at Griffith University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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Char-leeMcLennan-qzrkbjqmWu

Moving from resources to tourism is a bigger leap than we think: Char-lee McLennan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Dear Premier Palaszczuk,
As you meet with <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/business/business-looks-for-economic-diversity-infrastructure-stability/story-fnihsps3-1227220692715" target="_blank">Queensland business leaders</a> on Tuesday and get down to the business of governing, you’re sure to face many immediate preoccupations and challenges. But considering <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-23/regional-queenslanders-worried-about-downturn-of-state-economy/6035220" target="_blank">the economy was the dominant issue</a> of this election, I would like to provide three pieces of advice for your new Labor minority government.
The economy is ultimately about people
First of all, I would encourage you to remember that the ultimate objective of economic policy is to promote inclusive economic growth and welfare. I use the word inclusive here to mean that all individuals, especially those at the bottom end of income distribution, should be guaranteed access to the benefits and opportunities arising from the increasing pace of economic activity. It is only by being inclusive that growth can effectively generate “development”.
Budget, taxes, debt and expenditure are only tools that the government can use to achieve the fundamental goals of inclusive growth and welfare. Unfortunately, in the recent past both the federal and Queensland governments have mistaken tools for objectives.
This has led to a policy of “minimisation”: to minimise debt, minimise deficit, and minimise expenditure. This is hardly a good way to run fiscal policy. On the contrary, inclusive growth and welfare become more difficult to achieve when the only purpose of policy is to shrink the size and scope of government, thus compromising its ability to supply public goods and to stabilise the economy against cyclical shocks.
There are two important features that should instead characterise good fiscal policy.
One is the synchronisation of expenditure with the business cycle. Cutting expenditure just to balance the budget in a time of economic contraction will only make the contraction worse. Conversely, when the economy slows down, the government should increase expenditure and possibly run a deficit. This will help the economy recover.
That is not just theory: my own research on Australia indicates that one extra dollar of government expenditure generates <a href="https://www120.secure.griffith.edu.au/research/file/dd80d33e-ccac-46f9-ac58-d9ff7d41b5b7/1/2014-08-does-government-expenditure-multiply-output-and-employment-in-Australia.pdf" target="_blank">more than one dollar</a> of gross domestic product (GDP). I have done similar research for Queensland, which is yet to be published but which found a similar result.
Of course, the increase in expenditure and deficit in time of contraction must be offset by expenditure cuts and surpluses in time of economic expansion. This counter-cyclical pattern of government expenditure and deficit will ensure that the economy is stabilised in response to shocks, and there is no accumulation of debt in the long-term.
The second feature of good fiscal policy is attention to quality considerations in public investment. It is rather common to think that economic growth is just a matter of investment, and hence that the best (and possibly only) way in which governments can support growth is by throwing money into some infrastructure projects.
But the quality of investment and spending is as important as its quantity. Quality, for instance, means that upgrading the curriculum or promoting work-integrated learning is as important as building a new school.
Similarly, the growth payoff from building a tunnel that does not really address any transport bottlenecks or does not facilitate connectivity between market nodes is going to be small. I guess that the general message here is: public investment in infrastructure is not a panacea, and there is more that the government should/can do to promote inclusive growth.
Obsession with debt
My second bit of advice Premier is to get some perspective on the “debt problem” of Queensland.
There is no question that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queensland-debt-36345" target="_blank">Queensland debt has grown considerably</a> since 2006-07, and that today the debt to GDP ratio in Queensland is higher than in the rest of Australia, as I showed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queensland-debt-36345">in a recent article</a>.
But from a policy perspective, what matters is not much the comparison with other states, but instead the extent to which debt is sustainable. Sustainability refers to the dynamics of the debt to GDP ratio in the long-term. It is a simple matter of algebra to show that debt is sustainable as long as the economy grows sufficiently fast.
So, the issue of sustainability is essentially a question of economic growth. If in the attempt to reduce debt you were to undertake cuts or actions that undermine the growth potential of the economy, then the debt problem would simply get worse.
Now, this does not mean that Queensland should take a course of fiscal profligacy. It means, however, that there is no need at this stage to make drastic measures to repay debt. The type of counter-cyclical fiscal policy previously described, coupled with sound interventions in support of growth, will be enough to prevent further debt accumulation and hence to ensure its sustainability.
I welcome your government’s decision to re-consider the proposed plan of asset privatisations. It is the wrong response to a problem that does not require any such strong choice.
From an economic perspective, there is simply no evidence to support the notion that the private sector always does it better. Certainly, there are several examples of successful privatisations of public assets. But there are also many instances where privatisation has not resulted in a decrease in price and/or an increase in consumer’s satisfaction.
What does the economic data tells us?
And this brings me to the last bit of advice: make sure that your team takes a comprehensive look at the economic data before making any big decisions.
If good fiscal policy means that government expenditure must be synchronised to the business cycle, then the government must be able to identify and even predict the phases of the cycle. This in turn requires making the most efficient use of the large volume of statistical information that is available today. That is, good economic policy must be guided by a good understanding of the economic data.
A good look at the data is also important in terms of communication. I do not think that it helps the cause of any government to advertise a strong economy when – as is the case in Queensland today – gross domestic income per capita <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queenslands-economy-without-the-spin-35959">is declining</a>, the only jobs that are being created <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-unemployment-figures-really-say-about-queensland-36305" target="_blank">are part-time</a>, and the unemployment rate <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-unemployment-figures-really-say-about-queensland-36305" target="_blank">is higher</a> than what it was three years ago (with or without seasonal adjustment).
Fabrizio Carmignani is a professor at the Griffith Business School at Griffith University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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FabrizioCarmignani-GxUevkhNYc

Queensland’s biggest economic challenge isn’t debt – it’s growth

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The extent to which the Abbott government’s woes have effects in the real world of Australian lives was on display in last week’s January unemployment numbers from the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Statistics</a> (ABS).
First, the good news: the number of aggregate hours worked in January was up a lot — 0.5% seasonally adjusted. And part-time employment rose nearly 16,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted.
But nationally, unemployment rose 0.3 points to 6.4%, the highest in over 12 years. That more than reversed the surprise fall in December to 6.1% from 6.2% in November. In trend terms, unemployment remained steady at 6.3%. Participation was steady at 64.8%, seasonally adjusted, so the big rise in unemployment was not due to participation. It was driven by a fall of 28,000 in full-time jobs.
There was a 0.3 point rise in unemployment in NSW to 6.3%, where participation dropped 0.1 of a point. It dropped the same in Victoria, where unemployment rose to 6.6% from 6.5%. In Queensland, the final legacy of the Newman government was a 0.3 point rise in unemployment to 6.5%, off the same small fall in participation as in NSW and Queensland. South Australia saw a big rise in unemployment, from 6.6% to 7.3%, but the numbers in smaller states are always more volatile, and it was accompanied by a 0.7 point jump in participation. Western Australia recorded a fall of 0.3 points to 5.9% unemployment, off another 0.1% fall in participation, while unemployment was flat in Tasmania at 6.6%.
Overall, the numbers show that, as forecast, the jobs market slowed at the start of 2015 after a strong finish to 2014. That strong quarter coincided with problems around the accuracy of the ABS jobs data. But in a note with the release, the ABS made it clear those recent problems had no impact on the January figures:
“The increase in unemployment in January 2015 in original and seasonally adjusted terms has not been caused by the recent changes to the ABS supplementary survey program.
“Historically, the ABS had not conducted supplementary surveys in the December and January months, and no supplementary surveys were conducted in December 2014 and January 2015.”
It continued:
“The increase in unemployment in original terms is due to:
<ul>
<li>a net increase in unemployment in persons who responded to the labour force survey in both December and January (the ‘matched sample’),</li>
<li>a contribution from the incoming rotation group compared to the group it replaced, and</li>
<li>a contribution from persons who responded in December but not in January and vice versa.”</li>
</ul>
“Overall response rates for both December and January were in the ABS’s target range of 93% to 95%,” the ABS added. Adding to the need for caution about the jobs data was the number of jobs added to the economy in December being revised upwards from 37,400 to 42,300. A downward revision would add to any feeling the jobs data for January was showing a weakening demand for labour.
The overall result bears out the RBA’s obvious concerns about the fragile state of growth in the economy. And the concerns of the rest of us that the Abbott government doesn’t have the wherewithal to address it.
This story originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/02/12/unemployment-lurches-up-while-government-navel-gazes/">Crikey</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Unemployment lurches up while government navel-gazes

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The Australian economy will drop out of the G20 by 2050, according to research published by PwC.
And the slide will continue unless the nation’s leaders fundamentally change the way they think about investing in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills, says one of the country’s leading technology entrepreneurs, <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/politics/45612-why-australia-keeps-getting-it-wrong-on-employee-share-schemes" target="_blank">Matt Barrie</a>.
The <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/consulting/assets/publications/World-in-2050-Feb15.pdf">PwC The World in 2050 report</a> predicts the Australian economy will drop 10 places in world rankings by the middle of the century, dropping from its current rank of 19 to 29.
This would put the Australian economy behind the likes of growing economies such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines and far behind economic powerhouses China, India and the US, which are predicted to stay at the top of the rankings over the next 35 years.
According to PwC, the end of the Australian mining boom, and a lack of investment in other parts of the economy, will cause the Australian economy to fall behind.
The PwC rankings are determined by comparing the purchasing power parity of each economy and this year’s result shows a broad shift from developed economies to emerging economies.
While China is predicted to remain the largest economy by 2050, India is expected to overtake the US for second place, and Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria could push the UK and France out of the top 10.
The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are expected to shoot up the rankings, while Colombia and Poland will grow at a faster rate than the large economies of Brazil and Russia.
PwC Australia economics partner Jeremy Thorpesaid the research indicates the Australian economy will “revert to trend” and we “won’t see the mining boom in the same way”.
While Thorpe says PwC is not trying to predict exactly what the Australian economy will look like, the takeaway from the research is that “we know the economy is going to be different and STEM will be important wherever it goes”.
“The Australian economy is not going to be as large in relative terms and so our companies are not going to be competing on scale,” Thorpe says.
“They will be competing at the smarter end.”
Thorpe says this represents an opportunity for “smaller, nimble companies”, especially those built on digital disruptive technology, and that is why it is essential to make long-term investments in STEM capabilities.
“Many of these things don’t pay off immediately,” says Thorpe.
“You can’t cut the ribbon in the same way you can for a new bridge, you have to look beyond the political cycle. But as the events of the past week have shown, it can be heard to divert attention from the here and now.”
Freelancer founder Matt Barrie agrees with Thorpe’s analysis, said he fears the Australian economy will follow the same path as the resource-rich Argentina, which saw a dramatic decline in its wealth because of government policies that did not alter the composition of the economy.
Barrie has spoken out regularly about the need for investment in STEM skills in Australia, including to <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140627074014-921366-australia-technology-policy-points-in-letter-to-malcolm-turnbull" target="_blank">Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull last year</a>.
“We have actually gone backwards in our thinking about the tech industry or science,” says Barrie, who lays the blame with “successive Australian governments”. 
“There have been rampant cuts. I don’t think it would be possible to do more damage.”
Barrie points to cuts to funding for science research, declining university enrolments in STEM subjects and courses, the “dumbing down” of curriculum in primary and secondary schools, as well as the “screwing up” of remuneration schemes for technology companies, as just some of what he believes are damaging policies.
“It just goes on and on and on,” he says. “We’re at risk of becoming a shipwreck … It’s death by a thousand cuts.”
If given the chance, Barrie says the first thing he would change is the K-12 curriculum taught in Australian schools.
“Every little kid wants to design the next Facebook … the next mobile phone app but they don’t know how,” he says.
“We need to help them connect the dots.”
He would also encourage more people to work in STEM fields and appoint a national chief technology officer who would be responsible for setting longer-term goals.
But as long as the topic remains off the table in Canberra, Barrie says he “is at a loss”.
“There is fundamentally something wrong in the way our country is governed,” he says.
This artiocle first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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ekeating-PWvazjYE25

PwC forecasts what Australia’s economy will look like in 2050

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Unemployment remains a concern, but perhaps not when it comes to house price growth, according to recent Macquarie Wealth Management research.
They note counter-intuitively that a rise in unemployment typically sees house prices move higher.
"Whilst unemployment is a key factor to be cognisant of for housing demand, the below table indicates that prior cycles exhibiting a strong rise in unemployment typically illicit a policy response from the RBA (i.e. rate cuts) which sees house prices actually increase as unemployment rises," the January report to clients noted.
<img src="/images/2015/02/13/housing-cycle-feb-13-one.jpg" alt="">
It looked at five recent cyclical employment downturns going back to the 1980s.
"In the 1990 recession the unemployment rate increased ~180bps to 10.7%, but house prices increased ~8% in the following 12 months factoring a ~200bps decline in the cash rate. 
A similar scenario was seen post the GFC," the report noted.
Rising unemployment is likely heighten risks of mortgage delinquencies, according to Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia.
Ellie Comerford, chief executive of Genworth in Australia, expects expects its loss ratios to climb from its current 19 per cent to 25 to 30 per cent for the full 2015 financial year.
Ms Comerford's comments to the Australian Financial Review came after Genworth posted a $172.7 million statutory net profit for the six months to December, due primarily to lower than expected claims and a strong housing market. The result was a 52 per cent improvement to the prior corresponding period
Genworth's share price sits around $4.20, up 60 per cent since its public debut in May, compared with the 6 per cent gains of the benchmark S&amp;P/ASX200 Index.
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Unemployment won't stop house price rises: Macquarie Wealth

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GUEST OBSERVATION
You know Australia’s in trouble when the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates.
Last week, the central bank did precisely that, in belated recognition of the <a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/national_income_recession_already_2sLhoU9EtfoC0g0M5xvujI" target="_blank">income recession</a> that has struck. Gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.3% in the June quarter of 2014, followed by a further 0.4% slump in the September quarter.
The RBA has cut its 2015 GDP growth estimate as well, by 0.25%, predicting a 1.75%–2.75% range.
In 2012, I <a href="https://theconversation.com/buckle-up-australia-recession-is-coming-7950" target="_blank">predicted</a> an Australian recession, albeit as a “delayed tsunami” effect of the global financial crisis of 2008–12. However, some <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-expects-recession-2015-034208840" target="_blank">bank economists</a> since late last year have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-17/australia-out-of-luck-odds-of-recession-rise/5972732" target="_blank">declared</a> there is a recession in the making in 2015.
Welcome to the post-industrial economy. Fortress Australia is long gone; the automotive industry is evanescing before our eyes; while textiles, footwear and clothing barely exist on these shores.
Steel, once the linchpin of Australia’s heavy industries, is a shadow of its former self. Battered by fierce competition from China and India, Australian steel tonnage output didn’t even crack the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/271979/the-largest-steel-producers-worldwide-ranked-by-production-volume/" target="_blank">top 20 world rankings</a> in 2013.
As everyone knows, the main game in Western Australia and Queensland is mining, mining and mining. Meanwhile, the sucker-fish, located predominantly in Sydney and Melbourne, comprising the <a href="https://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/fire-sector" target="_blank">finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) industries</a>, gorge themselves on the vast swathes of export dollars produced by coal and iron ore.
But for how long?
From hero to zero?
Throughout the last 12 years, Australia has produced world-beating results. Australia’s <a href="https://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp" target="_blank">GDP doubled between 2007 and 2013</a>. It is the world’s 12th-ranked economy, a remarkable feat for a population comprising a mere 24 million people (and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cats_in_Australia" target="_blank">20.7 million cats</a>, apparently). Nationally, unemployment is low. In 2013 and 2014, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/property-makes-australians-the-world8217s-richest-says-credit-suisse-20141014-1163ip" target="_blank">Australians were the world’s richest</a>, thanks to the property boom, with every man, woman and child worth an average of $A258,000.
And oil prices are so low that they’re better than any tax cut any miserly government could ever give you in its wildest dreams.
Everything’s going swimmingly, isn’t it? Where’s the party?
But Australia is also facing an <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/doing-more-with-less-as-incomes-shrink-20141205-120so4" target="_blank">income recession</a>. Real <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/real-wages-growth-worst-in-17-years-20140521-38p5j" target="_blank">household disposable income</a> is <a href="https://www.adelaidereview.com.au/commentary/article/falling-real-wages" target="_blank">falling</a>, exacerbated by the tumbling Australian dollar. Ominously, the world may be about to experience a Great Deflation.
Agriculture and manufacturing – the mainstays of Australian employment from federation until the 1990s – have been displaced by service sector industries. These largely feed off the revenues of a resources sector whose exports dwarf all others. But even iron ore export prices have halved in the past year, and there could be <a href="https://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/could-iron-ore-drop-to-%24us30-a-tonne" target="_blank">worse to come</a>. There is not much point in Australia boosting its iron ore output if no one wants to buy it. Just ask the Soviets what they did with their surplus steel. Komrade (they dumped it in the west, to save you looking it up).
Unfortunately for us, we like to party hard and we didn’t invest all the enormous benefits of the boom in the terms of trade during the 2000s. We spent it on tax breaks. Which we then spent. On property. And Chinese consumer goods.
And speaking of being dwarfed, Australia’s Future Fund – designed to fund public service pensions and the odd politician – is paltry by comparison with <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-09/all-norwegians-become-millionaire-shareholders-in-world27s-big/5191480" target="_blank">Norway’s</a>, which ranks third in the world with almost US$1 trillion in assets.
By contrast, Australia ranks 13th globally (as it does in most things, except cricket), with a mere <a href="https://www.futurefund.gov.au/" target="_blank">A$109 billion</a> at its disposal. Or about 2.1 years of Commonwealth deficits, roughly.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
The Great Deflation
This week, China reported its <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-inflation-drops-to-five-year-low-in-january-1423533186" target="_blank">inflation figures</a> and the numbers are troubling. Year-on-year domestic demand has weakened considerably. Moreover, in January, the US economy saw its consumer-price index (CPI) fall to its lowest level since bottoming out during the Great Recession of 2009.
Deflation means prices are down. One type of deflation can be positive, as it emerges from gains in technology, efficiency and scale, coupled with cheaper labour and energy.
But too much of the wrong kind of deflation – where inflation is negative – leads to long-term unemployment, reduced demand and low, zero or negative growth. Exhibit A: Japan. <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N0VJ0BN20150210?pageNumber=2&amp;amp;virtualBrandChannel=0" target="_blank">Two decades of deflation</a>.
The main reason price deflation is occurring is due to weak demand. This is due partly to a reduction in the gross money supply, and partly as a by-product of lower wages.
Money supply evaporated – temporarily – as credit markets froze in 2008. As governments poured liquidity back into financial markets in 2008–09, credit cautiously returned, but growth was non-existent or hesitant throughout most of the developed world. Millions of jobs vanished during the Great Recession, and the jobs that eventually returned <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/30/british-wage-slump-post-financial-crisis-uk" target="_blank">paid much less</a> than they had just a few years earlier.
In fact, the US has reportedly regained all the jobs it lost during the recession. With one hitch: these jobs pay <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-income-inequality-20140812-story">23% less</a>.
Now, this scenario has some resonance in Australia. The 2007–13 period saw Australian wages rise much faster than their OECD counterparts. But in 2014, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-19/abs-figures-show-annual-wages-growth-slowest-on-record/5269480" target="_blank">wages hit a brick wall</a>, barely matching inflation. Yes, even miners saw lower wage growth. And, judging by their trade magazines, neither white-collar nor blue-collar resources industry workers are too optimistic about the future.
Oh Eurozone crisis: we’ve missed you most of all
If you thought the IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) had muddled successfully through the 2011–12 eurozone crisis, think again. Exhibit B: The ECB’s January 2015 quantitative easing program, injecting €60 billion per month into the eurozone economy.
Sounds impressive. But it isn’t. What it will do is simply refinance the banking sector, which is now beginning to pay back the three-year Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) funds it borrowed during the crisis. Over 500 eurozone banks accepted more than €1 trillion during the crisis.
Now the ECB’s LTROs are maturing. As of January 2015, banks were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/ecb-policy-idUSL6N0UU3V720150116" target="_blank">due to repay up to €196 billion</a> on LTROs by the end of February. But they still owe nearly €900 billion.
Consequently, the ECB’s QE program will only keep liquidity flowing back to the banking sector, as it replaces old LTROs with new QE.
The elephant in the room is not Greece. It’s inflation – or lack of it, to be precise. Eurozone inflation is running at -0.2%, a far cry from its 2% target. Not to put too fine a point on it, but -0.2% is not inflation. I’ve met inflation. And that’s not inflation.
The clear objective of the ECB’s €1.2 trillion QE program is to reflate the eurozone economies and ensure sufficient bank liquidity. But it also has a secondary objective: currency manipulation. 18 months of the Federal Reserve’s QE 3, which concluded in late 2014, injected $US85 billion per month into the American economy, pumping up its GDP growth figures, manipulating its currency and, coincidentally, depreciating China’s massive stash of US bonds.
How has the ECB responded to this? By engaging in its own currency manipulation scheme. This has sent the euro <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD%3DX#symbol=EURUSD=X;range=1y" target="_blank">below US$1.15</a>, a far cry from its US$1.45 rate of mid-2011. With the euro closer to parity with the US dollar, eurozone global exports can at least remain competitive.
Why does any of this matter to Australia? First, the EU is Australia’s largest source of foreign direct investment. Second, the currency power-play between New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt has hurt Australian productivity and exports, even as the Reserve Bank <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/australia-accused-of-manipulating-australian-dollar-to-save-iron-ore-miners-20150204-135jzu" target="_blank">tries to play</a> this poker game as well. Although the dizzy heights of an above-parity Australian dollar are a long-forgotten dream, currency depreciation in Europe, North America and Asia has contributed to the loss of Australian industries, such as the automotive sector. Equally, the Australian dollar, even at US$0.70, is not competitive enough to substitute for a lack of productivity.
The ducks are all lined up. A perfect storm approaches.
Welcome to capitalism. We hope you enjoy your stay.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/37355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Remy Davison is Jean Monnet Chair in Politics and Economics at Monash University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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You know Australia’s in trouble when the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates: Remy Davison

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Following the recent cut in interest rates, we can see that there will be a pickup in residential construction particularly in Melbourne, Sydney and to a lesser extent in Brisbane, that will feed the appetite of the property investor who makes up more than 50% of the purchase of these apartments.
We think that self-managed super funds, as well as mum and dad investors, will be heightened with the fall in interest rates. Affordable housing, lower interest rates and higher job confidence will tempt first home buyers.
The concern is that outside of Sydney the economic indicators are not as strong, which permeates into confidence.
We are of the opinion that although interest rates have been lowered, it will not push another increase in property prices above circa 4% on the back of home purchasers being mindful of the price.
From the rental point of view we expect to see vacancy rates in the major capital cities to tick up as more of the investor stock comes on the market, which means a good opportunity for tenants.
As far as the government looking to regulate property investment, we don’t think this will take place as the major economic driver is the construction boom, which the government will not wish to disrupt.
We will see a multi-tiered market with Sydney continuing to grow with strong economic conditions coupled with job security to a lesser extent in Brisbane and in Melbourne.
Concern lies with Perth where there is a declining state economy due to job losses in the mining industry and the housing marketing beginning wane.
Malcolm Gunning is the president of the <a href="https://www.reinsw.com.au/imis15_Prod/web" target="_blank">REINSW </a>and the principal of <a href="https://gunningcommercial.com.au/" target="_blank">Gunning Commercial</a>.
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Outside of Sydney the economic indicators are not as strong: Malcolm Gunning

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank’s recent decision to introduce an interest rate reduction is a strong indication that there are changes brewing for Australia’s property market.
To fully understand how this rate cut will affect our housing markets, I think it’s essential to firstly understand how they have performed over the last 12 months. My research shows that there has definitely been some ‘winners and losers’ in the state comparisons.
The clear winner of the housing market battle is Sydney, which has documented a 16.78% annual growth rate from the period of December 2013 to December 2014. Performing equally as well in the unit market with an annual growth of 12.90%. By all accounts, what we have just witnessed is one of the largest boom periods in Sydney’s housing market history.
Taking this into consideration - along with its strong annual economic growth throughout 2014 that saw its state final demand increase by 3.5% - it is clear to see why people who are looking to enter the housing market would choose New South Wales. This compares to Western Australia, for example, whose economy is arguable in recession with its state final demand falling in the last three reported quarters.
This aside, when we take a deeper look at the Sydney market we uncover some unfavourable facts, including:
<ol start="1">
<li>The ABS’ latest reported commencements in new housing currently sits at 4,082 dwellings above the median commencement rate of the last five years. 
</li>
<li>New housing approvals, as last reported by the ABS, are running at 2,591 dwellings above the five year median. 
</li>
<li>Population growth, as last reported by the ABS, is slowing and currently running at 1,728 people below the five year median. 
</li>
<li>Residex estimates that there are currently some 7,000 dwellings surplus to need. 
</li>
<li>Unemployment is increasing, and is likely to increase a little more than was anticipated, given the lower crude oil prices and a consequential likely reduction in employment in the LNG development and exploration area.</li>
</ol>
These observations suggest that the Sydney market is heading into considerably oversupplied territory, which could lead to some significant corrections. In fact, analysis right across Australia indicates that there is a national stock overhang, and in many states it is significant.
So what does this all mean in a situation where interest rates have decreased?
We can anticipate that the interest rate decrease is likely to stimulate the markets, so house prices will probably move forward from here, with the lending control of the major banks hopefully keeping the markets from overheating.
But is this a good outcome for the property market? My simple answer is… no!
While it may be good in the short-term for existing house owners, throughout my three decades of monitoring house price growth, I can confirm that each period of growth always ends with a number of people who bought close to the top of the market getting burned due to their excessive leverage. 
I issue a warning to all, and that is that we have passed the top of a normal growth period, and we are now about to have the market further stimulated. This will take the growth into unchartered waters where affordability will be worse than we have previously seen.
If you are an investor wanting to get into the market, take care and make sure you don’t pay a premium for any purchase you make, especially if you are buying new units.
John Edwards is a consulting analyst for <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a>.
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