Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

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GUEST OBSERVER
A new monthly uncertainty index has been constructed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to track the cost of different factors such as international events and government policy decisions on the economy.
Uncertainty is widely recognised as being a drag for the economy. Workers who become more uncertain about their future wages typically reduce what they buy to save for the future and face events like, say, a pay cut.
Entrepreneurs unsure about the economic environment, such as fiscal incentive or the availability of technology, reduce their investment and wait until the uncertainty dissolves. Research has found in spikes of uncertainty, in a given country, overall demand for goods falls, at least temporarily.
While these sorts of predictions are common among economists and policy makers, it’s a lot harder to quantify the impact of uncertainty. What is needed is a way to measure the consequences of events that cause shocks of uncertainty in the economy. Unfortunately, economic uncertainty is not directly observable.
Economist Angus Moore from the RBA combined information from news (in particular, keywords such as “uncertainty”, “budget”, “policy” and so on), financial indicators (mainly, financial market volatility), and measures of disagreement among forecasters for key economic variables like firms' earnings and real GDP growth, to document the evolution of the Australian economic uncertainty from 1986 to 2014.
The RBA’s index appears to correlate with domestic events, like Paul Keating’s “recession we had to have” speech in November 1990, and even more clearly with external events such as<a href="https://theconversation.com/9-11-fostering-connections-after-the-horror-3105"> </a>the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. Some events, as the Greek debt restructuring in March 2012, actually correspond to decreases in the index because they work in favour of reducing uncertainty.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15308-1z0kkpl.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15308-1z0kkpl.jpg" alt="">
<h4>
Major events and economic uncertainty Angus Moore, Reserve Bank of Australia 
</h4>
One test of this index is how is might relate to key macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment. If an increase in uncertainty is one of the reasons for slow growth, the labour market should show signs of slowdown in the presence of high uncertainty.
A comparison of the employment rate with the uncertainty index shows that economic uncertainty does seem to move hand-in-hand with unemployment in Australia. In particular, the economic uncertainty index is on average 20 points higher when unemployment is rising.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15291-1bksyr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15291-1bksyr2.jpg" alt="">
<h4>Unemployment and economic uncertainty Angus Moore, Reserve Bank of Australia</h4>
It may be that major external shocks - like 9/11 - may induce variations in the business cycle and, consequently, generate uncertainty. It’s difficult to factor in the business cycle in the data that used to create an uncertainty index.
The RBA’s model found that increases in uncertainty of a fairly modest amount - such as 30 basis points - are associated with a downturn characterised by lower employment growth, weaker retail sales growth, and a fall in consumer confidence.
However, the size of the impact appears to be small. Uncertainty shocks are found to have a noticeable effect on the level of the cash rate, which decreases by about 20 basis points. This may explain why the impact of uncertainty on real activity is modest, for example, the RBA would have promptly intervened when needed in order to tackle the effects of spikes in uncertainty.
Does this mean that uncertainty is unimportant? No. In fact, the results point to the fact that, in absence of an adequate systematic policy response by the RBA, uncertainty could have more markedly slowed down the Australian economy.
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, famously wrote in the aftermath of the collapse of the US financial markets in 2009 that there was “(nearly) nothing to fear but the fear itself.” Policymakers should aim at reducing uncertainty as much as possible by clearly communicating credible fiscal and monetary plans. This is crucial because, as the US case proves, economic uncertainty is more often than not driven by policy uncertainty.
In light of this relationship, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should bear in mind that carefully managing Australian’s expectations on future economic policy reforms is a delicate task, and that backpedalling does not appear to be an option.
 
Efrem Castelnuovo is principal research fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, associate professor, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Economic uncertainty; nothing to fear but fear itself

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.2 percent in March from 101.3 in February to 99.1 in March.
The Index is back to around its average reading over the last six months. Following the change of leadership of the Federal Government in September the Index lifted by 8.3% over the subsequent two months. It has broadly held those gains with today’s reading off that high in November by 2.5% although we are now slightly back in the region where pessimists outnumber optimists.
Financial markets have maintained significant volatility since the last survey while finishing the month on an encouraging high.
However, responses to additional questions on ‘news items recalled’ indicate that consumers were generally less focussed on international events than in December. The proportion of respondents who reported recalling news on ‘international conditions’ fell from 20.0% in December to 15.5% in March although perceptions of this news remained highly unfavourable.
The highest levels of news recall were for items on ‘budget and taxation’ ( 37.1%) and ‘domestic economic conditions’(36.7%). Perceptions of both topics were less unfavourable in March than in December. Respondents registered low recall rates on new on ‘interest rates’, ‘employment’ and ‘inflation’ although again perceptions were significantly less unfavourable than in December.
However, the market volatility and unfavourable media coverage on property markets appears to have triggered a reassessment of risk preferences. When we asked consumers about the ‘wisest place for savings’ there was a much higher proportion nominating ‘pay down debt’ – 24.4% in March compared to 17.8% in December – with this month’s reading the highest since December 2011( 26.6%) when the European Financial Crisis was in full swing. This move to more risk averse preferences also saw a 4.5 percentage point increase in the proportion of respondents who favoured fixed interest investments, including bank deposits with significant reductions in the proportion nominating real estate (down to 14.7% from 23.4% in December ) and shares (down from 9.9% in December to 7.6% in March).
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations increased by 1.3% from 145.3 in February to 147.3 in March. This measures respondents’ assessments of the outlook for the unemployment rate so an increase indicates reduced confidence in the employment outlook. The measure is still 5.8% below its print in September but has steadily lifted (up 9.2%) from the low in October (134.9). However labour market expectations are still considerably less negative today than they were through most of 2014 and 2015.
Three of the five components of the Index fell in March. One of the two components assessing family finances – ‘family finances compared to a year ago’ – declined 8.2%. The Reserve Bank has indicated that it favours this component as a reliable indicator
of spending intentions. As such, it would be of some concern that this component, which unlike the overall Index did not lift significantly following last year’s leadership change, is now down 5.9 percent from a year ago, a considerably weaker read than the 0.4 percent decline in the overall Index. The prudent approach to this sharp move will be to assess the degree to which it is sustained over future months.
The other family finances component – ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ – increased by 0.2 percent. The components measuring the views on the economic outlook sent conflicting messages – ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 8.2 percent while ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 2.5 percent.
The final component, ‘time to buy a major household item’ – fell by 6.6 percent to be 2.5 percent below its level from a year ago.
 
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While there was a sharp deterioration in respondents’ views on real estate as a wise investment relative to December, assessments of ‘time to buy a dwelling’ suggest broader buyer sentiment may be stabilising. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index increased by 5.4 percent from 99.3 in February to 104.7 in March. 
This Index is now 3.0 percent above its level in September but still 13.1 percent below its level of a year ago. The divergence between this index and views on real estate as an investment may reflect uncertainty around potential changes to taxation policy affecting negative gearing. Notably, the state detail on ‘time to buy a dwelling’ shows buyer sentiment in NSW – the weakest state – is now 44 percent above its September low although it is still 19 percent below its level from a year ago. 
This stability is also indicated by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations. The Index lifted by 9.8% in March to be 16.6% higher than its level in December although still 18.4% below its level from a year ago. 
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The Reserve Bank Board next meets on April 5. As we have been successfully arguing since June last year that we expect the Bank will keep rates on hold through 2016. Clear issues for the Bank will be the progress towards stability in the labour market and the value of the Australian dollar. 
Recent dollar strength has been associated with a more positive outlook for China and commodity prices and as such would not be grounds for a policy adjustment. 
Equally, while most indicators, including our own, one of which is quoted in this survey, point to an overall improvement in the labour market over the last six months, actual jobs growth appears to be running ahead of those indicators. The recent lift in the recorded unemployment rate to 6.0% seems consistent with that observation. 
Given the recent GDP report showing Australia grew by a relatively impressive 3% in 2015, the current unemployment rate is a long way short of a print that would prompt a policy response from the Bank. 
We expect growth in the Australian economy of 2.8% in 2016 with the genuine prospect for some stability in our terms of trade through the year laying a foundation for a lift in incomes and spending going into 2017.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment shows modest March fall: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Last week's GDP print was a strong result, considering the global backdrop. 
Australia's economy grew at an above-trend pace of 3.0% y-o-y over 2015, despite falling commodity prices and China's slowdown. 
Monetary policy deserves much of the credit. Cuts to interest rates over the past four years and a significant fall in the AUD have been the key supports for growth.
 Low rates have lifted housing prices and construction, which is feeding through to a positive wealth effect on consumer spending. 
The lower AUD is supporting strong export growth, particularly of tourism and education services to Asia. At the same time, inflation is low and set to remain so. Despite these positive growth stories, the RBA may still need to cut further to keep inflation on target. 
We have long been optimists on the Australian growth outlook. A key part of this story has been our belief that monetary policy is powerful and has been well managed. 
In short, when the mining boom was at its peak, in 2011, monetary policy settings were very tight, which held back the non- mining sectors and kept inflation contained. This meant that there was then significant scope to loosen settings when the mining boom ended, thereby rebalancing and lifting growth. The RBA cut its cash rate from a peak of 4.75% in 2011 to 2.00% and the AUD has fallen from US105 cents to under US75 cents. 
The cut in interest rates supported a 30% rise in housing prices since mid-2012. 
The combination of rising housing prices and low interest rates drove new building approvals to record highs in H2 2015. Last week's GDP numbers provided evidence that rising housing prices are also delivering a positive wealth effect, with the household saving rate falling from 9.1% to 7.6% over the past year. Although income growth has slowed, due to slower wages growth, rising housing prices and greater certainty about employment prospects are seeing households choose to spend more of their disposable income, particularly on services. The pick-up in the service sector is, in turn, driving a pick-up in employment. 
The lower AUD has also supported growth by improving Australia's competitiveness. In particular, and perhaps surprisingly to some observers, this is supporting a strong rise in net services exports. Inbound tourism and international student enrolments have picked up strongly, particularly from Asia. At the same time, Australians are also choosing to take fewer international trips. 
Net services exports have gone from being a drag on the economy of around 0.75ppts of GDP, four years ago, when the currency was high, to contributing around 0.5ppts to GDP growth over the past year. Without this swing, GDP growth of 3.0% in Q4 would be under 2.0%. Importantly, the lift in net services exports has nothing to do with the housing boom. So the rebalancing of growth is not just a shift from mining to housing. Services exports are being driven by Asia's increasing demand for tourism and international education services, helped along by the lower AUD. 
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This great rebalancing act provides strong evidence that Australian monetary policy works.
However, the rebalancing story is not over yet and nor is the role of monetary policy. Although local growth has been solid in recent years, it has not been rapid enough to absorb all of the available spare capacity. The transition from mining- to non-mining-led growth has left GDP growth at a below-trend average of 2.4% over the past three years (even with the 3.0% y-o-y print in Q4).
Although the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.3% to 6.0% over the past year, it is still well above its full employment level of 5.25-5.5% and has been for four years. As a result, wages growth is weak. Indeed, even the state with the strongest economic conditions, New South Wales, is yet to see a pick-up in wage growth. Combined with low global inflation, this has meant that underlying inflation is now at the bottom edge of the RBA's 2-3% target band.
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A number of near term challenges to growth also remain. Mining investment still has further to fall. Global commodity prices also have declined further since last year and over-supply in many markets is set to keep them low. Global growth is below trend and the Asian economies are being held back by weak global trade. 
Australia's housing boom is also cooling, much as it should, given the already substantial run-up in housing prices and residential construction. However, the end of the housing boom means it is unlikely that household consumption will continue at the same strong pace observed late last year. 
The other challenge is the AUD. As we described above, the AUD has been a key driver of the rebalancing act and a key support for growth recently. But low global inflation, further expected rate cuts from the ECB and Bank of Japan and the markets’ doubts about whether the US Federal Reserve will hike again this year, have meant that speculative positions have turned long on the Australian dollar. 
The currency has climbed from its low point of US69 cents in January to now trading around US74 cents. A higher Australian dollar is unhelpful for the rebalancing story and likely to put further downward pressure on already low underlying inflation. 
So although the growth performance is impressive, given the global backdrop, the question is: will there be enough growth to keep inflation on target? At the same time, local financial conditions have been tightening, not loosening, as the AUD has moved higher and the cash rate has been steady while inflation has fallen (meaning real interest rates have increased). Effective mortgage and business lending rates have also been lifted in recent months, despite a steady RBA cash rate, as a result of regulatory changes and higher global funding costs. 
Just to keep the same effective financial conditions settings as delivered the strong H2 GDP growth performance the RBA may have to cut further. Thankfully, with a cash rate at 2.00% and inflation low the RBA has scope to cut further to keep Australia's great rebalancing act underway. Our central case sees another 25bp cut from the RBA around mid-year (Q2). 
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Loose monetary policy is rebalancing growth: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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Energy and resources minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth, the greatest Australia's had since 2006. Is that right?
With shakes in the global stock market and uncertainty abroad, politicians are understandably keen to reassure voters that Australia’s economic fundamentals are strong.
Employment data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is one way we can test Australia’s economic waters, and resources and energy minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth.
Is he right?
Checking the numbers
The ABS' December Labour Force survey release showed that over the course of 2015, total employment was up by 301,300 people (adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations and rounded to closest 100 people). Of those 301,300 jobs, the majority (187,200) were full time.
In the last three months of 2015, growth compared to same time the previous year has fluctuated between 2.6% and 3%. That’s above the average annual growth in employment since 2000 of around 1.9%. In short, employment growth recently has been strong.
Is it the greatest level of job growth since 2006?
Table 1 of the release shows that this growth is indeed the strongest of any calendar year since 2006.
However, one could also look at changes over the 12 months to any month. Doing that, you could say, for example, that November 2010 with a figure of around 314,300 had a stronger level of job growth than the latest employment figure show. It was also stronger in November of 2015, when it was at about 344,900.
In other words, if you look only at changes for calendar years (between the beginning and the end of any given year), Frydenberg is right to say it’s the greatest level of job growth since 200
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That said, comparing the recent data to particular points in the past is less important than what the data tell us about the current trends in the labour market.
<h2>Trends</h2>
While the ABS devotes considerable resources to undertaking the survey, it is worth remembering that published employment growth is an estimate. The survey is only a sample of the population. The ABS reports on page 40 of its release that the standard error of monthly employment growth is 29,300 people, so, while employment growth recently has been strong, considerable uncertainty surrounds the numbers.
More generally, monthly movements in these data are volatile. For example, in December employment actually fell marginally, although this followed two months of strong growth and therefore was still a good outcome.
Due to this volatility in the monthly series, the ABS' trend series may provide a better guide about the extent to which recent growth is likely to persist in the future.
Over the last three months of 2015, growth in trend employment averaged around 30,300 people, compared to 43,000 based on the data adjusted only for regular seasonal fluctuations.
In other words, the data show us that the underlying trends in the job market recently have been pretty good.
Other, unofficial, data point to an improvement in the labour market. The December 2015 ANZ Job Advertisement Index showed growth compared to the same time in 2014 in their trend estimate at 11.4%, compared to around 10% in the middle of 2015.
<h2>The unemployment rate</h2>
The unemployment rate, which is also produced by the ABS in the labour force survey, has improved over the last three months. At <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">5.8%</a>, it is down from 6.2%, where it had fluctuated around since mid 2014 (see Table 1 of the release). Similarly, the trend unemployment rate has also improved and in December reached 5.8%.
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Is 5.8% a good outcome for the unemployment rate? A simple benchmark is that average unemployment in Australia since 2000 is 5.5% – so it’s still currently a little above average.
Another way to judge the level of the unemployment rate is to look at developments in wages. If the unemployment rate was too low, growth in private sector wages would pick up. However, in the September quarter (which predates the recent drop in the unemployment rate) wages growth was soft.
To put Australian unemployment in a global context, the average unemployment rate of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations was 6.6% in November 2015. However, we need to caveat this comparison. Many countries, such as some in Europe, have unemployment rates that are, on average, higher than Australia’s, reflecting the different structure of their labour markets.
Australia’s unemployment rate has shifted down and that has persisted for three months, which gives greater confidence that it might not be temporary. However, given the volatility of these data and the uncertainty presently surrounding the outlook for the global economy it will be important to see whether these gains are maintained in coming months.
<h2>Verdict</h2>
Josh Frydenberg was right. Employment growth in 2015 was the strongest of any calendar year since 2006, although comparable growth also occurred over the 12 months to November 2010. It is also fair to say Australia has recently experienced strong jobs growth.
Review
This FactCheck is excellent in its comprehensive review and interpretation of the Labour Force Survey data. It is pointed out that labour market statistics, such as the unemployment rate and the number of people employed, are only estimates not the actual numbers in the population.
The statistics are based on the Labour Force Survey, which is a sample of 0.33% of the population about the employment status of everyone in the household aged 15 years and older. Because they are based on a sample of the population, the statistics have errors. In its monthly report the ABS publishes these “sampling errors” and clearly says that the estimate of the monthly change in the employment has a “95% confidence interval”. The media and the government rarely, if ever, report the range of estimates.
It is well known among economists that “you don’t trust one month’s figures” – the trend in labour force statistics is what’s important in understanding what’s going on in the labour market.
This FactCheck does a good job of explaining that the ABS “trend estimates” are much more reliable than the actual raw estimates. Again, the media (and politicians, when it suits them) tend to concentrate on the actual number, particularly whether it has risen or fallen. As the author also pointed out, the start and end date of the change usually makes a difference to the estimate of the change.
As the above states, although the minister’s assertion can be questioned somewhat by adopting a different start and end date, the overall conclusion that jobs growth is reasonably strong is correct. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" rel="author" style="line-height: 1.3em;"></a>
 
Tim Robinson is research fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" target="_blank">here</a>.
Phil Lewis is professor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.
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FactCheck: is job growth in Australia the greatest it’s been since 2006?

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Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has released the Westpac-Melbourne institute index of consumer sentiment.
There was a decline overall, but some optimism to be had with a spike in time to buy dwelling confidence.
The report showed an overall confidence decline of 3.5 percent from 100.8 in December to 97.3 in January, it's lowest level since September 2015.
However the index remains 4.3 percent above its level this time last year.
There were quick responses on twitter from Forex and FX options trader Mark Carrington (<a href="https://twitter.com/go4forexprofits" target="_blank">@go4forexprofits</a>).
The senior manager at research group BIS Shrapnel Angie Zigomanis was also quick to respond to the news, telling Domain there may still be some growth for New South Wales and Victoria.
The figures have received worldwide attention with tweets coming from Miami and England.
Global markets and economics reporter for Business Insider Australia David Scutt (<a href="https://twitter.com/David_Scutt" target="_blank">@David_Scutt</a>) tweeted a summary from Westpac regarding the housing sentiment. 
<a href="/news/nsw-cautious-but-encouraging-spike-in-housing-confidence-westpacs-bill-evans">For Bill Evans full commentary click here</a>
 
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Tweet of the day: Westpac-Melbourne index sees January confidence decline, but housing up

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HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham has suggested that the Australian services economy could be driven by Chinese consumer demand.
The article was tweeted by Asian Practice lead at PWC Andrew Parker through his twitter handle <a href="https://twitter.com/A_JParker" target="_blank">@A_JParker</a> and can be read in <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/chinese-consumer-demand-set-to-drive-services-economy-20160118-gm8edt" target="_blank">full here</a>.
Property Observer listened into Paul's briefing outlook today where he further referred to the anticipated Chinese consumer demand. 
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Paul also released information regarding Australia's economic future for the year 2016, with the Chinese featuring predominantly.
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Tweet of the day: HSBC's Paul Bloxham on the continued Chinese impact on the Australian economy

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Chamber-Westpac Survey of Industrial Trends, the longest running business survey in Australia, dating from 1966, provides a timely update on the manufacturing sector and insights into economy-wide trends.
The Westpac-AusChamber Actual Composite index moderated in the December quarter to 53.5, down 3.2pts, from 56.7 in September. This is a still solid reading, above the historic average of 49 and up from an average of 52.4 for 2014.
The trend strengthening of the Composite index in 2015 has been centred on new orders, output and overtime, with some moderation in new orders and output in the final months of the year.
Manufacturing is benefitting from a strong upswing in new home building activity, as well as the lift in renovation activity and from the significant improvement in competitiveness flowing from the sharply lower currency, down 25% against the US dollar from mid-2014. However, the cycle remains constrained. Consumer spending is below trend, mining investment is turning down sharply and global fragilities persist. 
Exports are rising modestly, supported by the lower currency but constrained by still sluggish world growth. A net 3% of firms reported a lift in exports.
Expectations are positive, centred on new orders and output. Firms expect to respond to this strength by increasing overtime. The Expected Composite index is at 60.8, up 1.0pt on September. A net 38% expect the general business environment to strengthen over the next six months, up from 19% in September.
Businesses are looking to 2016 to be a positive year for profitability, driven by increased turnover and a lower Australian dollar boosting export returns. A net 19% expect profits to increase.
There are tentative signs that investment by the sector is nearing a turning point, consistent with a trend reduction in the sector's spare capacity. A solid net 15% of firms expect to increase equipment spending in the next year. The improvement has, to date, been centred on fewer firms looking to reduce spending.
On jobs, the survey's Labour Market composite was at a solid 52.2 in December, albeit down from a five year of 55.9 in September. The Index correctly foreshadowed the strengthening in economy wide jobs growth evident over the past year. It points to further solid gains into 2016.
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Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Conditions moderate, but still positive: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest NAB Monthly Business Survey suggests the apparent recovery in the non-mining economy has remained on track, with business conditions holding up at above average levels for the past nine months. 
The NAB Business Conditions Index remained at +10 points in the month of November – the fourth consecutive month of conditions at this level – which is well above its long-term average (+5 points). 
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This is basically another strong result for the NAB Survey, which in conjunction with signs of improvement in the labour market, means we can put more faith in the building non-mining sector recovery”. 
Interest rate and AUD sensitive industries have generally outperformed, while improvements in areas such as retail in November are an encouraging sign that the recovery is becoming more entrenched. In contrast, mining continues to weaken. This is also reflected in variations across states. 
“In fact, the survey is showing a widening gap between deteriorating mining/mining services (-21) and the rest of the economy” said Mr Oster. 
However, business confidence has been disappointingly muted, despite recouping some of the losses from last month. The confidence index rose from +3 to +5, which is still marginally below its long-run average. 
According to Mr Oster, “Given improved prospects for the domestic economy outside of mining, relatively subdued confidence is most likely a reflection of the uncertain global economic environment. In any case, it was good to see a broad-based increase in confidence across industries”. 
NAB’s measure of capacity utilisation eased back in November (to 80.9% from 81.2%), despite better trading conditions. The decline in capacity utilisation was particularly heavy in the mining industry, but mixed elsewhere. 
“Capacity utilisation is a useful measure of the underlying health of the economy. It eased a little this month, but the trend remains distinctly positive, which bodes well for business investment and the labour market” said Mr Oster. 
NAB continues to see no change to the RBA cash rate in coming months. The RBA’s recent policy statement continues to reference a “gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors” and further easing would require a significant deterioration in the economic outlook or a reassessment of growth in the non-mining economy. Today’s survey suggests maintaining the status quo
 
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Business conditions remain buoyed by the non-mining recovery: NAB's Alan Oster

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics have released the annual State Accounts.
The State Accounts provide annual estimates of output growth by state, Gross State Product. Quarterly estimates are not available.
The accounts for the 2014/15 financial year (July to June) confirm that a growth transition is underway. The mining states of the north-west, Qld and WA, are slowing; while the southern states, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, are improving.
Western Australia, despite a loss of momentum, still managed to top the growth charts in 2014/15, at 3.5%, moderating from 5.6%. The two largest states came in next, with Victoria at 2.5%, accelerating from 1.0%; and NSW, at 2.4%, rounding up from 2.3%. Next were South Australia, at 1.6%, rebounding from a soft 0.8%; and Tasmania, also at 1.6%, extending its recovery from 1.3%. Qld tumbled from 2nd place to 6th, with output growth of only 0.5%, slowing from 2.8%.
The maturing of the mining investment boom, as construction work on major gas and iron ore projects is progressively completed, was central to the loss of momentum in WA and Qld. Across the south-east, conditions benefitted from the significant easing of monetary conditions - with record low interest rates and a sharply lower currency. 
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Western Australia 
Output growth in the West slowed to 3.5% in 2014/15, from 5.6%, although that was still a little better than the state government forecast of 3.25%. The 2014/15 outcome is the slowest pace since 2008/09 and is below the state's long-run average of 4.7%. 
The state government expects growth to slow further in 2015/16, to 2.0%, with state demand expected to contract for a 3rd consecutive year. 
By industry, mining was the major driver of growth in 2014/15, contributing 3.0ppts of the 3.5%, as iron ore exports expand. Having said that, the contribution from mining was a moderation from 3.8ppts the year prior. A loss of momentum in 2014/15 was evident across: agriculture, construction, and real estate. 
Queensland 
The Qld economy slowed significantly as work on major gas projects neared completion and before output from these projects ramped-up. GSP growth was only 0.5% in 2014/15, moderating from 2.8%, well below the state's long run average of 4.0% and the softest outcome since 2010/11 and before that, 1990/91. 
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The outcome for 2014/15 fell short of the state government's forecast of 2.0%. The government expects GSP growth to bounce to 4.5% in 2015/16 as gas export begin to flow.
By industry, mining output added 0.6ppts to growth in 2014/15, up from 0.4ppts for the two previous years. Construction was the swing factor, turning from a +1.4ppts in 2013/14 to a –1.5ppts. Professional business services was also a headwind in 2014/15, subtracting 0.3ppts.
NSW
The NSW economy grew by 2.4% in 2014/15, rounding up from 2.3% in 2013/14 and an improvement on 2.0% in 2012/13. The outcome is in line with the state's long-run average (2.5%) and the forecast of the state government (2.5%). The government expects a strengthening to 3.0% in 2015/16.
While overall output growth was little changed in 2014/15, this masked a number of changes at the industry level. The key service sectors (namely, retail, hospitality, recreational services, education and communications) had a stellar year - together contributing 1.1pts to growth, up from 0.1ppt in 2013/14 and eclipsing the previous peak of 1.0ppt in 1994/95. This was offset by a moderation across a number of industries.
Victoria
The Victorian economy experienced a significant rebound following a couple of disappointing years. GSP grew by 2.5%, up from 1.0%, an outcome close to the state's long-run average of 2.7% and a little above the state government forecast of 2.25%. The government expects growth of 2.5% in 2015/16.
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As in NSW, the key service industries strengthened, adding 0.7ppts, up from 0.4ptps. In addition, it was a good year for both construction (0.5ppts) and finance (0.4ppts), as the housing sector responded strongly to low interest rates and an expanding population. 
South Australia 
SA's economy bounced back, expanding by 1.6%, following a sluggish 0.8% gain in 2013/14. As with NSW and Victoria, the key service sectors were the growth engine (particularly retail, hospitality and communications), adding 0.6ppts, up from only a 0.1ppt contribution in the previous year. Health, finance and real estate added 0.9ppts, up from 0.6ppts, while conditions were mixed elsewhere. 
The outcome for 2014/15 of 1.6% was only a touch shy of the 1.75% expected by the state government, ahead of an anticipated rise of 2.0% in 2015/16. 
Tasmania 
Tasmania's economic recovery continued, output grew by 1.3% in 2013/14 and increased by 1.6% in 2014/15, following a contraction of 1.2% in 2012/13. The state government had expected growth to be 1.75% in 2014/15, before strengthening further to an above trend rise of 2.5% in 2015/16. 
The acceleration of conditions was centred on services, construction and agriculture. The sharply lower currency and stronger demand on the mainland are key pluses for the state. 
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Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australian economic growth state by state 2014/15 update: Andrew Hanlan

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GUEST OBSERVER
‘Surprising’ survey results are often the most interesting. That was undoubtedly the case with the Nov Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey.
Despite what can be viewed as a de facto tightening in financial conditions following moves by banks to increase mortgage rates, sentiment posted a solid gain in the month to climb back over the 100 level for only the third time in the last 21 months.
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Clearly there were some powerful offsetting positives at work this month. These all centred on the outlook for the economy, with the ‘economic outlook’ sub-indexes up over 20% in the last 2mths on a combined basis.
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The circumstantial evidence strongly implicates the leadership change in mid Sep as a key positive catalyst. Disentangling the various influences on consumer sentiment can often be very difficult but this month we have a closer look at how views on the ‘economic outlook, next 5yrs’ relates to sentiment more generally and responses to opinion polls. The analysis points to recent gains being due to a mix of improved polling, a ‘honeymoon’ effect following leadership changes and a more general improvement in sentiment.
Of course, it remains to be seen how well this resurgence in economic confidence is sustained. And views on the economy tend to have less influence on actual spending decisions than those around family finances and buyer sentiment.
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On this front, the Nov survey was a more mixed update. On the more sober side, our preferred gauges of demand momentum remain subdued in line with the soft spending seen through much of 2015. Sentiment around housing also remains weak with assessments of ‘time to buy a dwelling’ pointing to a material correction and price expectations cooling rapidly.
On the more positive side, responses to direct questions about planned Christmas spending were the most upbeat we have seen since the GFC. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index also sustained most of last month’s big improvement, suggesting a genuine breakout from the intense pessimism around job security that has hung over the consumer since 2011.
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On balance, sentiment is starting to look more conducive to a lift in spending but there are clearly still some weaknesses.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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