<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) touches on some interesting points in its latest <em>Financial Stability Review</em>, including the paradox of low interest rates.</p>
<p>Household debt-to-income ratios have been flat for the past eight years, but the RBA quite rightly senses a risk that low rates could see this figure busting out to new highs and looks on cautiously.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The paradox is that low interest rates have made life pretty easy going for existing owners of property on variable rate mortgages, with the interest payments-to-income ratio falling from 13% to just 9%</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage buffers</strong></p>
<p>The RBA notes that aggregate mortgage buffers are at remarkably high levels, the equivalent of "more than two years" of scheduled repayments. A big reason for this, as I've experienced myself, is that banks have frequently left mortgage repayment amounts on auto-pilot despite declining mortgage rates:</p>
<p>"Households' ability to service their debt has been aided by ongoing low interest rates. The proportion of disposable income required to meet interest payments on household debt has stabilised accordingly, at around 9%.</p>
<p>"Households continue to take advantage of lower interest rates to pay down their mortgages more quickly than required. The aggregate mortgage buffer – balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities – has risen to be around 15% of outstanding balances, which is equivalent to more than two years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.</p>
<p>"Prepayment rates and the proportion of borrowers ahead of schedule on their mortgage repayments are also high according to liaison with banks. Part of this prepayment behaviour has been due to some banks' systems not automatically changing customer repayment amounts as interest rates have declined, while in many cases households have not actively sought to reduce their repayments.</p>
<p>"This might be a sign that household stress is currently limited. The household saving ratio, although trending down a little lately, remains high at just under 10%. Households' aggregate balance sheet position has continued to improve in recent quarters: real net worth per household is estimated to have increased by 4% over the year to September 2014."</p>
<p><strong>Rental market</strong></p>
<p>With dwelling prices rising we might expect to see rental vacancies increasing and yields declining. Historically speaking, however, Sydney's vacancy rate remains low despite pockets of forthcoming oversupply. RBA again:</p>
<p>"Despite the activity and housing price inflation in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, rental yields have not declined to a significant extent and vacancy rates in these cities remain fairly low."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>True, but vacancy rates are elevated and likely to rise in inner city Melbourne apartments as the RBA observes.</p>
<p><strong>Household financial stress?</strong></p>
<p>Generally 90 day+ loan arrears at now at very low levels at only 0.5 percent, but there are some indicators of household financial stress in Victoria. Back to the RBA:</p>
<p>"Aggregate indicators suggest that household financial stress is generally low, despite the increase in the unemployment rate over the past year. The share of banks' housing loans that are non-performing has declined for both owner-occupiers and investors since reaching a peak in the middle of 2011.</p>
<p>"Data on securitised housing loans show that the share that are 90  days or more past due has declined over the year for most states, coinciding with lower interest rates and rising housing prices. In Victoria, however, loan performance has deteriorated slightly."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The RBA notes instances of mortgage stress and arrears in "outer west and north Melbourne".</p>
<p><strong>Interest rate rises?</strong></p>
<p>So it's largely happy days for homeowners at present. But what about interest rate increases?</p>
<p>Previously we have covered off the possibility here that interest rates might yet fall further as the mining construction boom tails off.</p>
<p>So, what could lead to hikes? Mostly we'll be looking at inflation and the jobs market.</p>
<p>The TD-MI inflation gauge printed flat again for the month, leaving this particular measure sliding towards the bottom of the 2-3% range (now at just 2.2%) and suggesting little in the way of inflationary pressures or a pressing need to hike interest rates.</p>
<p>The declining Aussie dollar could well wash through a little more tradables inflation in due course, but sustained inflationary pressure would likely need the labour market to pick up, since there currently appears to be a fair amount of slack therein.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/4br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt=""></p>
<p>Some heartening news on that front today with ANZ job adverts recording its fourth consecutive monthly gain to hit its best reading in two years.</p>
<p>Could this suggest that the labour market is picking up as was suggested here by last month's figures? Maybe! The next round of Labour Force figures on the 9th of this month is very eagerly anticipated for all of the above reasons.</p>
<p>In any case, interest rates will be very much stuck on hold today at 2.50%. It seems likely that prudent households will have at least another year of low rates ahead to keep building up those mortgage buffers.</p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Reserve Bank muses on housing stress

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Lending Finance data this week, and it was a pretty weak reading after a couple of apparently very strong months for commercial lending.</p>
<p>Total new lending fell by 10.3% in August from the previous month with a sharp 16% drop in commercial lending the driver of the result.</p>
<p>Owner occupier housing loans fell by 2% in the month of August on a seasonally adjusted basis, with most states seeing activity fall in the month (although notably not Queensland).</p>
<p>Note that the ABS classifies property investor loans separately from owner occupier loans and thus these come under the commercial lending header in the chart below.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Year on year total new lending remains 11% higher, which is promising, and the rolling 12 monthly figures about do show that the overall trend has been a good 'un.</p>
<p>However, there is no getting away from the fact that August was a fairly rubbish result for commercial and business lending and quickly quells the enthusiasm of the markets from last month which saw some excitable claims that interest rates will be heading up imminently.</p>
<p>In short: No, they won't be.</p>
<p><strong>Property investor loans</strong></p>
<p>As for those property investor loans, in aggregate, property investor loans were pretty much flat in August on a seasonally adjusted basis.</p>
<p>On a trend basis, investor loans were down in all states, as one might expect. On a rolling 12 monthly basis, however, property investor loans across all of the main states continued to rise, with New South Wales and Victoria marching on to new heights.</p>
<p>New South Wales (read: Sydney) loans are a whopping 42.5% higher year-on-year on a rolling annual basis.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Just looking at the straight raw monthly property investor loan data, New South Wales and Victoria are the clear standouts with 30% and 28% increases respectively.</p>
<p>Elsewhere activity has been softer, although evidently property investors are becoming more active in Queensland. Property investor activity has been solid in Western Australia and flat in South Australia.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Macro-pru</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it's not yet quite clear what this means for so-termed macro-prudential regulation to cool the investor market.</p>
<p>Clearly with property investor loans up very strongly over the past year, macro-prudential measures from the regulator (APRA) are very much in play in order to keep the proportion of lending to investors under some kind of check.</p>
<p>The August data taken by itself was far from alarming so there may be no knee-jerk announcements or reactions while the Reserve Bank and APRA await another month or two of data.</p>
<p>It's impossible to second guess these volatile data sets or indeed the actions of the regulator, although one generally gets the sense that dramatic macro-prudential measures are not really a preferred option.</p>
<p>Wayne Byres of APRA made the point the other day that although "people love the term" there is "nothing really new" about macro-prudential measures, which sort of implied moderation (to me at least).</p>
<p>I do just note in passing that AFG's more timely data for September showed record transactional activity for New South Wales as well as 49.7% investor loans.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/15/4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Sydney property market marches on to new heights, and unlike in the previous boom cycle of a decade ago higher interest rates are not anywhere to be seen on the horizon in order to slow the market down (and vacancy rates remain much lower today too) - this cyclical boom will have to die of all age and of its own accord or be slowed by regulation.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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Sydney's property market reaches new heights

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<p><span>Golly. My word there's some crappy economic data doing the rounds globally at the moment - the commodity markets smash-up continuing to take front and centre stage, while China's manufacturing activity gauge slumping to a 77 month low for good measure.</span></p>
<p><span>The commodity price exuberance was in part an echo of China's own property market largesse. Or if bubbles are your thing - and they seem to be all the rage these days - an echo-bubble of China's property bubble.</span></p>
<p><span>With stock markets in the business of tanking anywhere and everywhere from the US to the UK, Australia, China, Japan and...well, pretty much all over the show to be honest...perhaps it's no surprise that real estate is sifting back in favour togiven record low borrowing rates around the developed world.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Aussie stocks are well on track for their worst month since the global financial crisis having wiped close to 9 per cent off their value already in the month of August alone, while UK stocks have already meandered into correction territory.</span></p>
<p><span>On the flip side for British investment markets, the UK Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that UK mortgage lending has bolted to its highest level in seven years - since before the financial crisis fallout - at an estimated £22 billion for the month (where is the pound symbol on keyboards these days, by the way?).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>This is particularly noteworthy for Australian investors since the United Kingdom introduced macro-prudential measures of its own to its housing market back in 2014 in the form of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the impacts of the MMR are already receding into the rear view mirror - and with interest rates still stuck at rock bottom at the effective "zero lower bound" - mortgage lending appears to be ripping higher again.<br><br>The key point here being that while macro-prudential markets may be designed to effectively slow the market, they don't take away the demand for property completely or permanently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Hometrack</em> noted that Cambridge, Oxford and the English capital city of London are continuing to lead the way in terms of capital growth over the past year, which will come to no surprise to readers of my book <em>Get a Financial Grip</em> from some years ago, of course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>What's more, the boom could be only just be </span><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/11815503/House-prices-soar-in-major-UK-cities-and-this-is-just-the-beginning" target="_blank">in its infancy</a><span>.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Australia - 3 positives for property in 2016?</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the implementation of macro-prudential measures in Australia whereby APRA will aim to cap investor lending credit growth at around 10 per cent per annum, there are three other forces which may conspire to see 2016 being a strong year for property.</div>
<br><div>Firstly, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/josh-frydenberg-flags-no-ban-on-smsf-property-borrowing-20150820-gj4amh" target="_blank">reportedly</a> flagged that there will no banning of SMSF property borrowing, which could come as something of an upside surprise for capital city property markets, although those without substantial deposits may find real estate investment via their SMSF a tough proposition.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, does anyone else think that interest rates are on the "<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/the-long-slow-march-to-zero" target="_blank">long, slow march to zero</a>"? I can't predict the future, of course, but put it this way - I wouldn't be betting against it! </div>
<div>
<br>The cash rate futures implied yield curve suggests that markets area already looking for another interest rate cut to 1.75 per cent by the second half of 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to know where to start with commodity prices crash. The iron ore and coal correction, of course, has been one for the ages. Crude futures have hit upon a deadly slick.<br><br>"Dr. Copper" is testing 6 year lows and toying with financial crisis depths while lurking below US$2.30/lb. Precious metals are miles below their peaks...and on the list goes.<br><br>Ordinarily one might say that this will be bad news for property markets and investor sentiment, yet realistically with mortgage rates falling towards record lows and cash in the bank paying essentially nothing worthwhile after inflation, where else are Aussies going to invest their money?<br><br>Into our tanking and resources-heavy stock market? Hmm, not so sure about that.</div>
<br><div>Thirdly, with APRA targeting investor loans banks and lenders are likely to go all in on targeting owner-occupier lending.<br><br>HSBC are already now <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/owneroccupiers-targeted-with-interest-rate-deals-20150820-gj42mv" target="_blank">offering</a> variable rate mortgages from 3.99 per cent, with is just unbelievably cheap. We might expect to see other banks to follow suit. </div>
<br><div>
<em><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/" target="_blank">CoreLogic-RP Data</a></em>'s index shows that Sydney home values are up by 1 per cent in first three weeks of August alone and a stonking 18.2 per cent over the past year. It's turning into a monster property boom, with Sydney dwelling values now up by more than 50 per cent since 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>With Sydney inching closer to its market peak, investors are increasingly shaping up to scope out Brisbane for better value, with investor lending on a 12mMA basis now tracking at its highest level since April 2008.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Sure, APRA's investor lending crackdown will jam a stick in the spokes for a while, but meanwhile Queensland owner-occupier lending has also ghosted past five year highs on a 12mMA basis, after a subdued half decade. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>And remember the Queensland figures are being dragged down by any number of mining towns and regions which are experiencing negative demand i.e. recessionary conditions.</span><br><br><span>Brisbane could be the one to watch in 2016.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Three positives for property in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<p>Almost 100% of the market analysis and media focus in real estate is devoted to the capital cities. But in two major states the regional markets are outperforming their capital cities.</p>
<p>And they’re not just any old cities that are being outdone by their country cousins. Sydney is one of them, which will amaze many people, and Brisbane is the other one.</p>
<p>I explained in a recent column why Sydney has passed its peak and is slowly losing its heat. You won’t be reading about it in mainstream media because journalists lack expertise and are reliant on press releases from research companies. And those research companies base their market analysis on median price movements. And median prices are six months behind the market.</p>
<p>The real story of markets is told by sales volumes. And sales activity has been gradually falling across metropolitan Sydney – to the extent that I count just 36 growth suburbs (compared to 114 six months ago).</p>
<p>Regional New South Wales has almost double the number of growth markets of Sydney. The momentum that started with regional areas close to the state capital – like Wollongong and Gosford – has spread throughout the state.</p>
<p>The Gosford LGA remains the most buoyant regional NSW market, followed by nearby Wyong. The Newcastle region – where the Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Cessnock and Port Stephens LGAs all have multiple growth suburbs – is also on a positive trajectory.</p>
<p>The Southern Highlands market has more recently sprung to life, with Moss Vale, Bowral and Mittagong all looking strong.</p>
<p>Further afield in NSW, Port Macquarie looks really good and the Tweed region at the Queensland border is joining the growth party. At the opposite end of the state, the twin cities of Albury and Wodonga on either side of the Victoria border are attracting growing attention from investors.</p>
<p>Dubbo continues to be one of the strongest regional economies in the state and the nation, while Goulburn and Orange also look good.</p>
<p>Everywhere I look in New South Wales there are markets percolating, without (with the exception of Gosford) having delivered price growth of Sydney proportions.</p>
<p>Brisbane is still producing plenty of growth markets, although the limelight has switched from the north to the south. While the Brisbane City Northside precinct was the first to burst into life with elevated activity and good price growth in 2014, the leading markets are now Brisbane City Southside and, a little further south, Logan City.</p>
<p>But there busy markets across Brisbane, with upwardly-mobile suburbs springing up in the Redland, Ipswich and Moreton Bay LGAs around the periphery of the metropolitan area.</p>
<p>And regional Queensland is matching the Greater Brisbane area for the number of growth locations. The regional action is headed by the Gold Coast, which continues to gather momentum and has now overtaken Logan City to be the No.1 LGA in Australia, in terms of the number of growth suburbs.</p>
<p>Fortunately, most of the growth markets in Gold Coast City are genuine residential markets – i.e. inland housing markets, rather than the high-rise precincts along the glitter strip. Let’s hope that’s where investors focus their attention, because the new mega towers will return the Gold Coast to its grand tradition of apartment over-supply.</p>
<p>The Sunshine Coast, which continues to progress as a more well-rounded regional city, is the next biggest growth market, while resurgent Cairns is still featuring strongly. </p>
<p>But there’s a new contender – the Fraser Coast region based on Hervey Bay is now producing more growth suburbs than Cairns and almost as many as the Sunshine Coast. Townsville is slowly spluttering back to life.</p>
<p>Toowoomba, which was the first regional city in Queensland to get on a growth path, looks to have had its run. This is demonstrated by the high number of “plateau” markets among the Toowoomba suburbs. The big infrastructure investment happening in and around the city should keep its market solid, but sales activity has undoubtedly tapered off in Toowoomba.</p>
<p>No other states have regional markets as prominent as NSW and Queensland, although there are good possibilities for investors in Victoria and Western Australia – but that’s another story.</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Capital cities outdone by country cousins: Terry Ryder

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<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">APRA </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">released</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> its latest property exposures figures for the June 2015 quarter today, which confirmed an ongoing surge in new housing loans. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>As at June 2015 the total of residential term loans to households held by all institutions (ADIs) was $1.33 trillion. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In total this represented an increase of +$31.8 billion (+2.4%) from the prior quarter, and a solid increase of +$97.1 billion (+7.9%) over the year to June.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There were a total of 5.4 million loans outstanding, with an average balance of $243,000.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investment loans surging higher</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Investment loans totalled $518.3 billion, an increase of +$17.7 billion (+3.5%) from the March quarter and massive +$81.1 billion (+18.6%) from one year ago.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>That's huge, and well ahead of the rate that the regulator would or should be comfortable with.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Interestingly while loans held by the major banks increased by +7.5% over the past year to $1,076 billion, loans held by other domestic banks increased by a much faster +18.8% pace to $155 billion.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>The major banks still accounted for close to 80 per cent of the domestic new housing loan market, however, with the remainder of the market comprising other banks, credit unions and particularly building societies.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>It should be noted that there have been a few issues relating to the reclassification of loans between owner-occupied and investment loans, with material revisions (&gt;10%) pushed through for the September 2014 to March 2015 quarters relating to ANZ and National Australia Bank.</span><br><span><br></span><span>You can see the jump in the chart below. </span><br><span><br></span><span>This has had the impact of accentuating the rate of increase in investment loans while dampening the growth in owner-occupier loans. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In any case the trend in <strong>total </strong>loans outstanding since March 2008 has been more than clear, with total residential term loan exposures captured by this data more than doubling over that time.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This is at least partly because the investor segment of the market often opts to amass new debt rather than paying loan balances down, particularly because Australia has prevailing tax legislation which encourages this behaviour.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/APRA1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/26/APRA1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The data revealed that the overwhelming majority of new housing loans in the quarter at 89.3 per cent of new loans were of a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or lower. </div>
<br><div>As denoted by the pink area in the chart below there has been a surge in the number of borrowers using 20 to 40% deposits, now accounting for more than half of new housing loans in the last quarter.<br><br>This may imply that "cashed up" property owners with deep pools of equity are buying investment property at the expense of first time buyers who must save their deposits. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More than one fifth of new loans in the quarter had a very low loan to value ratio of just 60% or lower.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/26/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Higher risk "low doc" loans continued to represent only a tiny fraction of the Australian mortgage market in the June quarter at 0.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market risks</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With very few low doc loans written and the overwhelming majority of loans being written with deposits ranging from 10 to 40 per cent, where lies the risk?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, it is hardly as though the market is highly leveraged in aggregate with aro<span>und <span>~</span>$1.4 trill</span>ion of debt sitting against a stonking $6 trillion residential housing market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For my money, in terms of the residential mortgage market the answer is that the risk lies in the very high percentage and concentration of interest only loans, whereby typically no repayments are made against the principal in the first five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is true that loans with offset facilities are continuing to flourish, but nevertheless a whopping 45.8% of new housing loans written in the June 2015 quarter were of the interest only variety.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although only 4% of new housing loans in the June quarter were written outside serviceability, it would not be a surprise to see APRA looking more closely at the elevated percentage of interest only loans with renewed interest.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Investment loans power on: Pete Wargent

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<p>On Wednesday I spoke at seminars in Sydney where I heard about a property investment strategy that is different in many respects to one I would pursue. But it<span>’</span>s a very good and successful one, nevertheless.</p>
<p>It reinforces a point about which I<span>’</span>m constantly aware: there<span>’</span>s no single strategy for property investment that can be called the right one. The best strategy for buying property and building a portfolio differs from one person to the next.</p>
<p>Here<span>’</span>s what David McMillan of Performance Property Advisory does on behalf of his clients. He and his team identify one market which, above all others, stands out as the one that offers the most value.</p>
<p>They focus exclusively on that market and devote big resources there to learn all they can, establish a network of service providers and be ready to move quickly when the right properties become available.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>A core plank of the strategy is to buy in areas likely to show good growth in the first three years. Early growth creates the equity that helps to fund the next purchase and build the portfolio.</p>
<p><span>“</span>People can<span>’</span>t stump up a deposit of $100,000 or $150,000 every time they want to buy another property,<span>” </span>McMillan says. <span>“</span>So we buy them something for $500,000 that will be worth $650,000 in three years time. They build their portfolio using the equity that has been created.</p>
<p><span>“</span>Most investors only get as far as one property, because they make mistakes. Those mistakes are leveraged and amplified.<span>”</span></p>
<p>McMillan and his team has a track record of targeting future growth markets well ahead of the pack. They were buying in prime suburbs of Sydney in 2012, in advance of the three years of strong price growth that followed.</p>
<p>Once the temperature rose as the herd stampeded into Sydney, the PPA team exited. The properties bought for their clients in Sydney have grown 40% to 60% in value.</p>
<p>The next focus was Brisbane, with the emphasis on prime suburbs close to the CBD. They started buying there in mid-2013 and have bought close to 300 properties for clients. They<span>’</span>re now on the way out of Brisbane, as more investors come into that market, making it harder to find good-value investments.</p>
<p><span>“</span>We buy established property, not new property. New property is the most expensive way to buy real estate and the least effective way to grow a portfolio. We look for scarcity and we look for good quality property in good areas.<span>”</span></p>
<p>How do they know the right time to focus on a particular market? One of the key research tools is charting the relationship between prices and rents.</p>
<p>When Sydney had gone multiple years without significant price growth, but rents had grown considerably, they knew it was the right time to strike. <span>“</span>We want a location with price stagnation for 5-7 years plus a significant increase in rents,<span>” </span>he said.</p>
<p>An example was the top end suburb of Rose Bay. In 2012, the median price had grown only 15% in the previous eight years. But rents had grown 70%. According to the formula, that meant the suburb and many others like it in Sydney were primed for a growth spurt.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>“</span>It was very clear what was going to happen in Sydney,<span>” </span>McMillan says.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>McMillan offers three keys to successful investment:  buy in markets showing value, buy at or below the median price for the target region, and buy quality.</p>
<p><span>“</span>We won<span>’</span>t recommend a property to a client that we wouldn<span>’</span>t put in our own portfolio. If you don<span>’</span>t like it and wouldn<span>’</span>t live in yourself, then it<span>’</span>s probably not a good property to invest in.<span>”</span></p>
<p><span><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></span></p>
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Charting the relationship between prices and rents: Terry Ryder

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<div>The ABS released its Construction Work Done figures for the June quarter, which showed total construction for the quarter rebounding by +1.6% to a seasonally adjusted $49.8 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the last year total construction remained at historically very high levels at $198 billion, although this is now down from a sky-high annual figure of $211 billion one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>As any good politician would, of course, smiling Treasurer Hockey immediately took to Twitter to claim credit for the rebound.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MXXSPCW_nbQ/Vd49Y3e_dTI/AAAAAAAAXz8/ZfZZ5h_X5Ic/s1600/a9.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MXXSPCW_nbQ/Vd49Y3e_dTI/AAAAAAAAXz8/ZfZZ5h_X5Ic/s640/a9.jpg" width="640" height="178"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>But in fact public infrastructure work has been very weak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, against recent trends the rebound in the June quarter was not driven by residential construction either, rather it was a punchy quarter for engineering (i.e. resources) construction works, with expenditure rebounding by +5.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted $25.6 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/a2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/a2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Despite this positive blip, engineering construction work done was -8.8 per cent lower than a year ago, and will doubtless resume its downward trajectory in due course, as considered in more detail below.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining rebound in WA</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The driver of the engineering construction rebound was an increase in spend of nearly +$3 billion in Western Australia to $11.3 billion for the second quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact, anyone who was paying very close attention might have anticipated this.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall that the so-termed "record trade deficit" in April 2015r actually included an <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/trade-deficitwtf" target="_blank">anomalous spike</a>in Western Australian imports from Korea. As I <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/trade-deficitwtf" target="_blank">noted at the time</a>:</div>
<br><div><span><em>"<span>No further detail is provided by the ABS, but given that there was a kahuna $1.5 billion spike in merchandise imports in Western Australia, and we can assume that this was probably related to a major mining project.</span></em></span></div>
<div><span><em> </em></span></div>
<div><span><em>In all likelihood, one might hazard that this was rail capex for Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill iron ore project (which typically a business would treat as an investment in a fixed asset for the generation of revenue streams, rather than trading expenditure)."</em></span></div>
<br><div>In all probability, therefore, the June quarter rebound was capex driven with a large asset purchase accounting for most of the spike.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover we can expect that the September quarter will see engineering construction work resuming its inevitable decline.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Building by state</span></strong><br><br><div>At the state level, Victoria has been the king of residential building across recent years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However New South Wales is now the one state which is benefitting from a material public sector and non-residential building contribution, thereby thrusting total building work done in the Premier State to its highest ever level in the June quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/A8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/A8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Indeed, the New South Wales economy in generally is in very fine shape at the present time.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Residential building by state</span></strong><br><br><div>Looking at specifically residential buiding we can see that the +7.4 per cent year-on-year increase has been overwhelmingly a function of "other residential" building - which is to say, the construction of units, townhouses and apartments.</div>
<br><div>As denoted by the green line below, outside Sydney major renovations activity has been very subdued through this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although new house building has responded to low interest rates almost everywhere to a greater or lesser extent, the trend has been looking increasingly peaky over the past four quarters.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria continues to lead the way on the house building front, a state which appears to suffer less from greenfield land supply constraints than other states and territories do.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/27/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>On the other hand the higher density sector building work continues apace, particularly in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, which is a trend you can see everywhere from West End, South Brisbane, Fortitude Valley and Newstead (Brisbane), to Mascot, Wolli Creek and Zetland (Sydney). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/27/a7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/27/a7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The latest building approvals figures suggest that the cycle for unit and apartment approvals may also be set to peak in due course, thoughthe duration of higher density projects from approval to completion may run to several years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Consequently the elevated levels of building activity in this sector may have quite some way to run yet.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>Overal this was a positive result for construction in the June quarter which masks an ongoing decline in resources construction that is locked and loaded for the next few years. </div>
<div>
<br>Residential building remains strong for the time being, but even here Australia can only build new apartment projects for so long.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of more significance will be today's capex intentions for the 2015/16 financial year, and specifically whether businesses are becoming more inclined towards investment plans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If not, in a nutshell, interest rates will have further to fall.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Construction rebounds...for now: Pete Wargent

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<div>
<em>Residex</em> released its data and property market update to 31 July which showed house growth over the quarter accelerate to "an astonishing" 7.6% to be 21.2% higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the below <em>Residex</em> graphic shows capital growth in Sydney has continued to outstrip by far that seen in other capital cities where average growth for the quarter was under 1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney median house prices have now blasted well past $1 million at $1,017,500</div>
<div>
<br>Regional house price growth was relatively soft across all states and territories on this index. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>Sydney unit prices also recorded very strong 6.6 per cent quarterly growth to be 15.2 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> has also recorded very strong growth in rents for houses and units over the past twelve months.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand median prices contracted in resources capitals Perth and Darwin over the past year.</span>
</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" alt="" width="765" height="670"></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Astonishing Sydney boom accelerates: Pete Wargent

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<p>The herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome drive far too many investment decisions in Australian real estate.</p>
<p>It helps to explain why most Australians who attempt property investment have a bad experience. </p>
<p>When people are driven by an impulse to do what others are doing (the herd mentality) or to get in because they don’t want to miss all that lovely capital growth they keep hearing about (the FOMO – Fear Of Missing Out – syndrome), they’re buying well after the boom started.</p>
<p>Many investors buy real estate at the peak of the cycle. Worse, some buy after the peak.</p>
<p>People are still out there bidding up prices at Sydney auctions, driven by the FOMO syndrome, unaware that the peak has passed and Sydney’s boom is fading.</p>
<p>It means that fundamentally they are paying too much and destroying their chances of maximizing capital growth.</p>
<p>No one ever got rich following the herd. Some have succeeded by leading the herd but the truly successful people are those who run in the opposite direction to the herd.</p>
<p>People love the comfort of the pack. They would rather be part of a herd stampeding towards a cliff, than detach and run in the opposite direction, towards safety and potential prosperity.</p>
<p>Because of the power of the herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome, most people buy when prices are high.</p>
<p>When the market is down, they stay out of the market. They’ll get back in when they read that the herd is running again.</p>
<p>Crazy stuff. </p>
<p>Right now, the Perth market is down. I’ve been suggesting to people it’s a great time to consider buying there. The Perth market, which was strong in 2011 and 2012, peaked early in 2013.</p>
<p>The heat has long since evaporated from that market, there’s no competition from other buyers, prices have eased off and the buying is good.</p>
<p>You just have to believe that the Western Australian economy has a future and that the Perth property market will rise again.</p>
<p>Taking a long-term view, Perth is a strong market with a great track record. Its 10-year capital growth record is the strongest among the state and territory capital cities, much better than Sydney’s or Melbourne’s.</p>
<p>It has a history of strong population growth and a buoyant economy boosted by its links to the resources sector. It’s currently struggling but that won’t last. </p>
<p>Perth has also shown itself to be resilient during periods of downturn. I don’t expect any major price decline in the current phase, with the exception of oversupplied inner-city apartment markets which should be avoided.</p>
<p>While awaiting recovery in the Perth market, the best strategy to maximise capital growth prospects is to follow the infrastructure trail. Find a location primed to benefit from spending on new infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, and well-linked to major jobs nodes.</p>
<p>Locations with those qualities include the precincts around Rockingham, Fremantle, Midland and Forrestfield.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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The Perth property market will rise again: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>As at the week ending 25 October 2015, a total of 240,384 residential properties were listed for sale across the country.</span></p>
<p><span>Just over 40% of these (103,852) were situated in one of the 8 capital cities. In comparison to the same period last year, total listings are -2.6% lower nationally and -1.9% across the capitals. Relative to last year, the latest data also shows that the number of new listings being added to the market is lower, despite the number of new properties advertised for sale increasing on a rolling four week basis for the last four weeks.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Table.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Table.jpg" alt="" width="569" height="126"></span></p>
<p><span>Sydney and Canberra are the only two cities where the number of new property listings over the most recent four week period was higher than at the same time last year, albeit by only 0.3% in Sydney, and 3.7% across Canberra. </span></p>
<p><span>This result comes from 9,552 new listings added to the market in Sydney over the four weeks ending 25 October, compared to 9,526 one year ago and 720 residential Canberra properties added to the overall stock available for sale, compared to 694 over the corresponding four weeks one year ago. In all other cities the number of new properties listed for sale are lower relative to last year, with the largest differential seen in Perth (-22.4%), Darwin (-13.6%) and Adelaide (-12.0%). In particular, the data for Perth and Darwin indicates that home owners are likely aware of the weak housing market conditions and are therefore less inclined to put properties up for sale.</span></p>
<p><span>In terms of the total stock pool, across the residential capital city markets the results are more varied when compared to one year ago.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>There are more listings this year compared to last year in: </strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><span><strong>Darwin</strong>, 1,581 currently, 1,389 last year (+13.8%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Perth</strong>, 19,284 currently, 17,423 last year (+10.7%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Sydney</strong>, 22,564 currently, 21,609 last year (+4.4%)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span><strong>All other remaining capital cities are showing less stock availability this year relative to one year ago:</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><span><strong>Hobart</strong>, 2,494 currently, 2,907 last year (-14.2%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Adelaide</strong>, 7,646 currently, 8,335 last year (-8.3%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Melbourne</strong>, 29,948 currently, 32,574 last year (-8.1%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Canberra</strong>, 2,184 currently, 2,370 last year (-7.8%)</span></li>
<li><span><strong>Brisbane</strong>, 18,151 currently, 19,288 last year (-5.9%)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Combined-capitals.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Combined-capitals.jpg" alt="" width="694" height="263"></p>
<p><span>Furthermore, last week we took a look at the current level of </span>housing supply<span> across each of the capital city markets. The analysis compares the absorption of stock by comparing the trend number of properties selling and the availability of stock for sale. The findings show that Perth and Darwin each have 6.8 months of housing supply on the market, the greatest of any capital cities, while stock levels in Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne indicate less than 3 months’ worth of supply, showing that these housing markets are somewhat healthier than that of Perth and Darwin. On the flip side, Perth and Darwin’s market conditions are more favourable for those looking to buy a property with more choice and vendors becoming more willing to sell below the current list price to secure a sale.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/National.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/National.jpg" alt="" width="709" height="269"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Across the states and territories, the number of listings is lower than one year ago in all but two regions; Western Australia, where current stock levels are 7.1% higher than they were one year ago and Northern Territory, where the number of listings currently is 14.0% higher than over the same period in 2014. </span></p>
<p><span>At the other end of the scale, the Australian Capital Territory (-8.0%) and Victoria (-6.4%) are the two regions with the largest differential in listing volumes compared to one year ago, however, interestingly new listings across the Australian Capital Territory over the four weeks ending 25 October were higher than one year ago (+3.3%), while across Victoria they were -4.3% lower.</span></p>
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