<p>Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.</p>

<p>Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]</p>

<p>It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.</p>

<p>“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.</p>

<p>“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”</p>

<p>There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]</p>

<p>Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."</p>

<p>“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.</p>

<p>"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”</p>

<p data-end="236" data-start="64">A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]</p>

<p data-end="523" data-start="308">Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.</p>

<p data-end="670" data-start="525">“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.</p>

<p data-end="760" data-start="672">Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.</p>

<p data-end="951" data-start="762">Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]</p>


Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

<p>Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" /></p>

<p>For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.</p>

<p>"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.</p>

<p>“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."</p>

<p>Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.</p>

<p>"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;</p>


ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its demographic data for the September 2014 quarter last week. The data showed that over the quarter, Australia’s population was recorded at 23.581 million persons having increased by 1.5% or 354,605 persons over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4440" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-13.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="184"></span></p>
<p><span>The increase in population over the past year was actually the lowest increase in national population over a year since the 12 months to December 2011. Looking at the components of the national population increase, natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for a 150,721 person increase in population and net overseas migration contributed to a 203,884 person increase. </span></p>
<p><span>The 150,721 person natural increase was the lowest annual increase since the 12 months to March 2007 while the additional 203,884 persons due to net overseas migration was the lowest since September 2011. As the first chart shows the sharp slowdown in net overseas migration in particular is having a big impact on the overall national rate of population growth.</span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4441" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="190"></span></p>
<p><span>Looking at population growth across the states, the annual increase in population was greatest in New South Wales (106,365), Victoria (102,021), Queensland (69,423) and Western Australia (53,691). Annual population growth was much lower over the year in South Australia (14,303), Australian Capital Territory (4,403), Northern Territory 2,765) and Tasmania (1,602). Over the past year, 58.8% of total population growth occurred in NSW and Vic. </span></p>
<p><span>If you add Qld and WA, those four states account for 93.5% of total national population growth. In terms of the rate of annual population growth, it is currently strongest in WA (2.1%), Vic (1.8%), Qld (1.5%) and NSW (1.4%). Elsewhere, the rate of annual population increase was recorded at 0.9% in SA, 0.3% in Tas, 1.1% in NT and 1.2% in ACT.</span></p>
<p><span>Although the population of each state is continuing to grow, the rate of growth has slowed across the board.</span></p>
<p><span> In NSW the annual increase in population was the lowest since June 2013, in Vic it was the lowest since March 2013, in Qld it was its lowest since September 2001 and in WA it was at its lowest level since September 2010. </span></p>
<p><span>Across the remaining states and territories the rate of population growth in SA was its lowest since September 2011, in Tas it was its lowest since March 2014, in NT it was higher than the previous quarter but lower over the year and in ACT it was at its lowest level since September 2006.</span></p>
<p><span>If we look at the components of population growth at the state level we get even further insight into the trends taking place. </span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4442" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-32.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="182"></span></p>
<p><span>Natural increase is basically a function of the overall population size and as a result natural increase is much greater within the largest states. Over the 12 months to September 2014, the natural increase was recorded at 43,069 persons in NSW, 36,794 in Vic, 34,603 in Qld, 6,932 persons in SA, 21,210 persons in WA, 1,503 persons in Tas, 2,882 persons in NT and 3,706 persons in ACT.</span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4443" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-42.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="183"></span></p>
<p><span>Turning to net overseas migration, overseas migrants are finding NSW and Vic the most attractive states in which to settle. Over the 12 months to September 2014, 62.0% of the net gain from overseas migration was recorded in NSW and Vic. Across the individual states the net overseas migration was greatest in NSW (69,601), Vic (56,772), WA (32,190) and Qld (28,878). Across the remaining states and territories net overseas migration was recorded at: 10,304 in SA, 1,065 in Tas, 3,266 in NT and 1,798 in ACT. NSW and Vic have always attracted the greatest number of overseas migrants however, as the chart shows the gap has widened significantly over recent quarters.</span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4444" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-52.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="182"></span></p>
<p><span>The profile of interstate migration has also changed significantly over recent years. Qld has historically been the powerhouse in terms of interstate migration however, Vic has now taken that mantle. Over the 12 months to September 2014 only Vic (8,455), Qld (5,942) and WA (291) recorded positive net interstate migration. On the flipside, each of NSW (-6,305), SA (-2,933), Tas (-966), NT (-3,383) and ACT (-1,101) recorded a net loss of residents to the other three states. This data set is published from 1981 onwards and over that time NSW has always recorded a net loss of residents to other states and territories however, the outflow is currently at a record low. In Vic, the inflow eased slightly from a record high over the previous quarter. Across the other states and territories, Qld net interstate migration is hovering around the lowest level on record, WA interstate migration is at its lowest level since September 2003 and the outflow of residents to other states and territories in NT is at a record high.</span></p>
<p><span>The data highlights an overall slowing of the rate of population growth which will undoubtedly have an impact on the wider economy. Economic growth is slower than it has typically been over the past 2 decades and is extremely weak on a per capita basis, lower population growth may exacerbate the slowing of economic growth. Dwelling approvals and construction are at record high levels, as we know over the past decade there hasn’t been an ample supply of new housing. The heightened level of construction will go some way to alleviating housing shortages however, it would take a number of years of heightened construction to totally rectify the shortage.</span></p>
<p><span>Looking at the data, the rate of population growth has slowed and the fall has been most noticeable across net overseas migration. Those migrants who are coming to Australia are favouring settling in NSW (Sydney) and Vic (Melbourne). This is creating further demand for housing in these cities, so too is the fact that Vic now has the highest net interstate migration of any state and the outflow of residents from NSW is at a record low level. </span></p>
<p><span>Given this, it is easy to see the impact demographics are having on the housing markets and why Sydney and Melbourne are seeing much greater housing demand and housing value growth. Fewer people are leaving those cities, more people are coming from interstate and most coming from overseas are choosing to settle in our two largest cities. On the other hand population growth has slowed significantly in other capital cities, fewer residents are leaving NSW and Vic to settle in these states and territories and they are attracting fewer overseas migrants.</span></p>
<p><span>With population growth now showing a consistent slowdown since the end of 2012 and new housing supply showing a consistent increase since late 2011, the gap between housing supply and demand has significantly narrowed. It is reasonable to assume that higher supply levels and lower housing demand will eventually dampen the exuberant housing market conditions that are so evident in Sydney and to a lesser extent in Melbourne. It is important to note that to-date the supply-side response has been nowhere near as strong in Sydney as it has been across most other capital cities.</span></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The rate of population growth remains strong but continues to slow: Cameron Kusher

<html><body><div id="post-body-5899603589334484546" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>It has long been apparent that since 2005 Sydney has not constructing enough dwelling stock to keep pace with the city's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/help-commentary-on-demographics-and" target="_blank">burgeoning population growth</a>, which would inevitably lead to a surge in prices.</div>
<br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Qyzz354APPQ/VRPWZSpyqyI/AAAAAAAAT-o/RgOP6BmiWes/s640/Dem9.jpg" width="640" height="246"><br><br><div>Only from 2014 has this finally begun to be addressed, by <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/record-high-for-dwelling-commencements" target="_blank">construction ramping up</a> to a pace somewhat more appropriate for the massive and ongoing surge in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-z8YzjlNHmbg/VLfEY8cprII/AAAAAAAASd8/ejl6pzwobL0/s640/AA7.jpg" width="640" height="271"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, it should be emphasised that <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/help-commentary-on-demographics-and" target="_blank">data released last week</a> showed the population growth of New South Wales is still tracking at 106,400 per annum, which in absolute terms is the greatest population growth in the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By the time the Q4 2014 data has washed through, it seems likely that Greater Sydney's population increased by close<span> to <span>~</span>90,000 persons in 2014.</span>
</div>
<br><strong>Housing finance soaring</strong><br><br><div>Contrary to what you might think, <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/housing-finance-commitments-burst" target="_blank">my analysis</a> of the latest <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/housing-finance-commitments-burst" target="_blank">Housing Finance</a> data showed that the number of owner occupiers buying into the Sydney market presently remains well below the levels seen in the preceding boom period (and in population-adjusted terms today's figures would be comparatively lower still).</div>
<div> </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9aPwmEZpiQE/VP-UY7zQfPI/AAAAAAAATsI/aTiAlvbEI3k/s640/HF3.jpg" width="640" height="260"><br><br><div>However, what is certainly the case is that since the middle of 2013 the prices that Sydney homebuyers have been prepared to pay have been rising very sharply.<br><br>
</div>
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NXRIMoAFWjo/VP-UZ6Sn29I/AAAAAAAATsc/boVxqziPyD8/s640/HF4.jpg" width="640" height="263"><br><br><div>Meanwhile, investors became wise to the supply shortage and began piling into the market in <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/sydney-record-high-investor-loans" target="_blank">record numbers</a>. The volume of investor loans is now breaking <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/sydney-record-high-investor-loans" target="_blank">new highs by the month</a>.</div>
<br><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8ckLfm5geVY/VQJEXp9qZsI/AAAAAAAATvY/9w_Mn0Y1CxA/s640/Loans1.jpg" width="640" height="261"><br><br><strong>Stock levels remain muffled</strong><br><br><div>Despite rising prices, data compiled by <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/" target="_blank">SQM Research</a> has shown that the level of stock on market remains below where it was a year ago, and far beneath the stock on market levels of the only equivalently sized Antipodean city.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7IvMpCuJXio/VRcVTXTmesI/AAAAAAAAUB8/Ek4YKFQzUss/s1600/SQM%2Bsom.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7IvMpCuJXio/VRcVTXTmesI/AAAAAAAAUB8/Ek4YKFQzUss/s1600/SQM%2Bsom.jpg" width="640" height="260"></a></div>
<br><div>We are now at last beginning to see the first impacts of new developments coming online, with a furt<span>her <span>~</span>25,000</span> apartment approvals for Sydney in the past 12 months, and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/record-high-for-dwelling-commencements" target="_blank">dwelling completions</a> also just beginning to hit their straps.</div>
<br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZD2OaSeqgHA/VPUtgOVuliI/AAAAAAAATfI/uoYdFeE_voI/s640/approvals1.jpg" width="640" height="270"><br><br><span>At the present time vacancy rates in Sydney remain significantly lower than where they were in 2004 at the end of the preceding boom period.</span><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QWGY4ErVhvQ/VRcVTWnxWDI/AAAAAAAAUB4/_7ftk2qsucA/s1600/SQM%2Bvr.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QWGY4ErVhvQ/VRcVTWnxWDI/AAAAAAAAUB4/_7ftk2qsucA/s1600/SQM%2Bvr.jpg" width="640" height="262"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<span>However, vacancy rates are finally being nudged higher around a few key construction hubs, which will put upwards pressure on apartment vacancy rates and an equivalent downwards pressure on unit rents.</span><br><div> </div>
<div>These include certain suburbs in the inner west (Erskineville), the inner south (Mascot, Green Square), north Sydney (Chatswood, North Sydney), and the surrounds of Olympic Park (Homebush Bay, Rhodes), to name a few.</div>
<br><div>For all that, we do need some perspective here.<br><br>Nationally, building approvals have <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/building-approvals-smash-record-high" target="_blank">smashed an all-time record high</a> at more than 200,000 on a rolling annual basis. Of these, Greater Sydney has approved 25,440 units and 13,337 houses in the past 12 months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's a jolly good start. Yet even if every single one of those 38,777 approvals makes it through to completion - which they won't - then in aggregate even this will barely make a dent in Sydney's inherent supply shortage.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure, there are doubtless dozens of vacant apartments up for rent way out at Australia Avenue. But what impact will this have on what is happening in the more popular established suburbs? Probably somewhere close to zilch, because of the diminished level of <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/planning-land-prices-and-house-prices" target="_blank">substitutability</a>.<br><br>It has been estimated that Sydney needs some 130,000 new dwellings. I'm not so sure about that, but I do know that it will take more than a few strong months of building approvals to redress an imbalance which was nearly a decade in the making.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling prices rising</span></strong><br><br><div>Unsurprisingly, CoreLogic-RP Data records Sydney home values as rising strongly. Its "<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/rpdata-corelogic-home-value-index" target="_blank">Daily Home Value Index</a>" has historically tended to record a mid-year dip which invariably leads to misplaced excitement, so we might expect to see prices on this chart dwindle across the next month or two.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VxkwhIfBYOI/VRdUEcCW4SI/AAAAAAAAUC0/gtS3s15gLGs/s1600/RPD.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VxkwhIfBYOI/VRdUEcCW4SI/AAAAAAAAUC0/gtS3s15gLGs/s1600/RPD.jpg" width="640" height="248"></a></div>
<br><div>This weekend was the busiest auction weekend ever in Sydney with more than 1,100 properties scheduled to go under the hammer ahead of the traditional Easter break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All the way back in <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/how-white-hot-can-red-hot-sydney-market" target="_blank">August 2013</a> Australian Property Monitors (now under the Domain banner) reported that the auction market had shifted seamlessly from "red hot" to "white hot".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This weekend's preliminary result busted all previous records with a massive 87.5 percent clearance rate reported. Domain circumvented the auction heat/pigment conundrum by simply declaring the market as the hottest it has ever seen. The <a href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/sydney-achieves-highest-clearance-on-biggest-auction-day-20150328-1m9vzq" target="_blank"><em>Sydney Morning Herald</em> reported</a>:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span><em>"The Domain Group senior economist, Dr Andrew Wilson, says he's "absolutely astonished". "This could not have been rationally predicted – the highest clearance rate on the biggest auction day ever. This is the hottest of hot auction markets ever."</em></span></div>
<div><span><em> </em></span></div>
<div>
<span>The good Doctor Wilson has <a href="https://doctorandrewwilson.blogspot.com.au/" target="_blank">courted a little controversy</a> with the introduction of his divisive "<a href="https://doctorandrewwilson.blogspot.com.au/" target="_blank">Countdown to Sydney $1,000,000 median house price</a>" counter Pictured below). </span><span>Based upon current market trends, Dr. Wilson sees this as being 442 days away, though after this weekend's auction frenzy the $1 million median house price may hover into view sooner still.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wGM3cbY_e20/VRcbPb2iNCI/AAAAAAAAUCY/2DATbvGcARI/s1600/wilso.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wGM3cbY_e20/VRcbPb2iNCI/AAAAAAAAUCY/2DATbvGcARI/s1600/wilso.jpg" width="640" height="160"></a></div>
<p> </p>
</div></body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney apartment construction hubs need close monitoring by investors: Pete Wargent 

<html><body>
<p>A speaker at a seminar in Melbourne told the audience they should buy in a particular suburb because the median unit price had jumped 20%-plus in the previous 12 months.</p>
<p>I’m not sure I’ve heard worse advice in a public forum.</p>
<p>But it’s a common syndrome in real estate - one that defies all logic, but common nevertheless.</p>
<p>For many years I have observed investors getting excited about buying in a location because they read/heard that it had shown exponential price growth in the recent past. </p>
<p>There are multiple reasons why this is a mistake. </p>
<p>The first is that they would be buying in a location <span>after</span> the big growth has happened. Publicity-hungry research firms that publish lists of the highest annual growth are telling you where you should have bought a year ago – maybe. </p>
<p>The second reason is that the figures show the rise in the median price, which doesn’t mean values have risen to the same degree. Given the way median prices work, it’s not uncommon for the median price to rise in an area where values have fallen.</p>
<p>The third reason is that the figures are often nonsense, wildly distorted by a small sales sample or a short time frame. </p>
<p>Here’s a recent example. RP Data, a persistent source of worthless information on real estate prices, recently spat a list out of its computer of the five locations in each state/territory which had shown the highest price growth in the most recent quarter. </p>
<p>Numerous locations on these lists had (allegedly) recorded median price growth between 25% and 35% in three months. </p>
<p>If this represented actual growth in values at those levels, this would be the greatest real estate boom in the history of the planet. But it did not mean anything of the sort. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>In each case, it was a statistical aberration. There was not a single instance among those 40 locations where values were rising at the levels suggested. </p>
<p>In most cases, the statistical glitch was caused by a small sales sample. More than half of the 40 locations had fewer than 30 sales in the previous 12 months, which meant the quarterly data was based on only six or eight sales. </p>
<p>Some had only 10 or 12 sales in the year, providing a quarterly sales sample was just two or three sales. To publish median price results on samples so small is irresponsible as well as misleading. </p>
<p>In every case – i.e. in all 40 locations – the RP Data growth figures were contradicted by figures from other research sources. </p>
<p>RP Data claimed Harlaxton in Queensland had grown 28% in three months, but Domain recorded zero growth for the same location. RP Data said Cape Schanck in Victoria (a tiny market with only 14 annual sales) had grown 29% in one quarter, but Domain said its median price had actually dropped 1.3%. RP Data said Manjimup in WA had jumped 29% in three months, but Domain said it had declined 3% for the quarter and 1% for the previous 12 months.</p>
<p>The problem is that some media organisations, especially the online magazines, publish these furphies as if they’re nuggets of gold for information-starved investors. </p>
<p>“Australia’s top property markets revealed!” shout the headlines. </p>
<p>How can they be so careless?</p>
<p>A more accurate headline would: “Australia’s worst misinformation exposed!”</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> </em></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>Terry was recently joined by </span><em>Property Observer</em><span> editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar </span>here<span>.</span></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Real estate advice syndrome a common problem: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p><span>There are 1,822 capital city auctions scheduled this week which is an increase from 1,704 last week. The final auction clearance rate was recorded at 74.9% and was the lowest combined capital city result since the first week in March, when across the combined capitals, 74.5% of reported auctions were recorded as sold.</span></p>
<p><span>Across <strong>Melbourne</strong>, there are 759 auctions scheduled this week which represents a significant increase from last week when there were 655 auctions across the city and higher than last year’s auctions at 674. Melbourne’s final auction clearance rate for last week was 77.4%.</span></p>
<p><span>Currently, CoreLogic RP Data is tracking 795 <strong>Sydney</strong> homes to be taken to auction this week, similar to the volumes seen last week when there were 791 auctions across the city. Last week Sydney’s clearance rate was 78.8%; the lowest result for the city since the final week in January when only 154 Sydney homes were taken to auction and the clearance rate was 77.9%. This is also the first time in 22 weeks where Sydney’s clearance rate has dropped below 80%. Given the strong performance of the Sydney auction market this year, there is likely to be even further interest toward upcoming auctions this week.</span></p>
<p><span>There will be 112 <strong>Brisbane</strong> auctions this week, down slightly from 123 last week and 116 at the same time last year. Last week, 52.5% of Brisbane properties taken to auction were sold.</span></p>
<p><span>79 <strong>Adelaide</strong> homes are being taken to auction this week, up from 69 last week and also higher than over the corresponding week last year (67). Adelaide’s clearance rate fell to 66.1% last week, after having been recorded above the 69% mark over the previous two weeks.</span></p>
<p><span>In <strong>Canberra</strong>, 45 residential properties will be taken to auction this week, compared to 31 last week and 48 last year.</span></p>
<p><span>Across <strong>Perth</strong>, 22 auctions are scheduled this week after there were 26 in the city last week and 16 over the same week one year ago.</span></p>
<p><span>Across Australia’s individual suburbs, the highest volume of auctions this week is in Victoria’s <strong>Mount Waverley</strong>, where 13 auctions are scheduled, followed by <strong>Randwick </strong>(NSW) and <strong>South Yarra</strong> (Vic) with 12 auctions.</span></p>
</body></html>

smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Capital city property auction volumes increase: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

<html><body>
<p><span>The ABS released its consolidated <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8782.0.65.001Main+Features1Mar%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank"><span>Construction Activity</span></a> data for the March 2015 quarter this week. </span></p>
<div id="post-body-7503557364222292087" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>No real surprises to be found here, based upon what we have already seen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Resources construction continues to decline apace, with engineering construction in chain volume measures terms declining by a further 7.0% in the first quarter of the calendar year, to be down by more than 20% year-on-year.<br><br>Recent commodity price action suggests that the pace of the decline may even accelerate from here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, as implied by record high building approvals, residential construction has begun to respond to low interest rates, increasing very strongly by more than 5% in Q1 to be up by 11.9% over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-residential building was up by 1.3% in the March quarter, but has increased only by a paltry 0.7% over the past year.<br><br>Here's the chart: </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DDxrvVs-G9A/VamSG2DNnHI/AAAAAAAAW_w/9aD2jXo9y1s/s1600/Construction1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DDxrvVs-G9A/VamSG2DNnHI/AAAAAAAAW_w/9aD2jXo9y1s/s1600/Construction1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DDxrvVs-G9A/VamSG2DNnHI/AAAAAAAAW_w/9aD2jXo9y1s/s640/Construction1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div>Piecing these figures together it's clear that residential construction alone will not fully compensate for the decline in mining capital expenditure, with total construction activity of $48.3 billion now declining back to the levels seen in Q4 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, $48.3 billion is still an elevated level of activity in historical terms...for now at least.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YDgBofnRhbY/VamSGwEWp2I/AAAAAAAAW_s/O5apxmfsbgQ/s1600/construction2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YDgBofnRhbY/VamSGwEWp2I/AAAAAAAAW_s/O5apxmfsbgQ/s1600/construction2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YDgBofnRhbY/VamSGwEWp2I/AAAAAAAAW_s/O5apxmfsbgQ/s640/construction2.jpg" width="640" height="288"></a></div>
<br><div>The full force of the challenge will come when the last of the mega projects finally reaches completion, with a number of massive projects still in the construction phase such as the $34 billion Ichthys LNG project in the Northern Territory.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional centres</span></strong><br><br>The big picture is that as part of this rebalancing of the economy construction activity - and therefore employment - is shifting back away from the regions and towards the largest capital cities.<br><br>The latest unemployment rate figures for Sydney (4.7%), Brisbane (5.2%) and Melbourne (5.8%) may prove to be seasonally low, but the smoothed rolling 12 monthly data does suggest that unemployment rates in all three of the most populous cities may just be trending steadily down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7ysRISR7K_4/Varagu2GulI/AAAAAAAAXAw/Qkiq-q3Y2zc/s1600/CAPCITY.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7ysRISR7K_4/Varagu2GulI/AAAAAAAAXAw/Qkiq-q3Y2zc/s1600/CAPCITY.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7ysRISR7K_4/Varagu2GulI/AAAAAAAAXAw/Qkiq-q3Y2zc/s640/CAPCITY.jpg" width="640" height="290"></a></div>
<br>The economy is Sydney in particular is thriving. Indeed, with employment, retail trade and house prices all booming, monetary policy settings are all too easy for the harbour city.<br><br>Unemployment rates in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie seem to have steadied of late, but the trend in the Hunter is still upwards for now.<br><br>It's likely to be a tough period of adjustment for towns in the Upper Hunter such as Muswellbrook and Singleton, with further job cuts at BHP Billiton's Mr. Arthur reported to be "imminent".<br><br>It is worth noting that directly the mining industry is only a relatively small employer, but the reversal of the mining capital expenditure boom does have significant flow-on effects to other ancillary industries.<br><br>Labour market conditions had seemed to be picking up in the Illawarra, but it is nevertheless the case that the outlook for domestic steelmaking remains potentially bleak.<br><br><em>The Australian</em> put it fairly bluntly, stating that the closure of BlueScope's Port Kembla steelworks is "a matter of when, not if".<br><br>A recent poll in the Illawarra Mercury showed that more than 70% of respondents believe that the closure of the plant would cripple the Illawarra economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1QB4q-M4068/Vardl9i8mhI/AAAAAAAAXBE/4CU4N8kIH2Q/s1600/NSW.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1QB4q-M4068/Vardl9i8mhI/AAAAAAAAXBE/4CU4N8kIH2Q/s1600/NSW.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1QB4q-M4068/Vardl9i8mhI/AAAAAAAAXBE/4CU4N8kIH2Q/s640/NSW.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
<br>Parts of regional Queensland have similar tales to tell.<br><br>Again, unemployment rates from month to month don't tell us a great deal, and things seem to have stabilised in some regions, but the general trend has been towards unemployment rates reverting higher as the resources investment boom phase falls away.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gQD7HHdogLk/VaragsgYkoI/AAAAAAAAXAo/odZ9tSHh_O0/s1600/QLD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gQD7HHdogLk/VaragsgYkoI/AAAAAAAAXAo/odZ9tSHh_O0/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gQD7HHdogLk/VaragsgYkoI/AAAAAAAAXAo/odZ9tSHh_O0/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a></div>
</div>
<br><div>Towns facing something of an uphill struggle include Dalby, Chinchilla, Roma, Moranbah, Emerald., Dysart, Bowen and others.<br><br>Gladstone has also been going through its own transition phase over the past year or two.<br><br>Tourism regions on the other hand should benefit from the ongoing depreciation of the Aussie dollar.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yeRSdxu4_5w/VatfKwQNUBI/AAAAAAAAXCQ/AgVE3IgBslA/s1600/tourism.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yeRSdxu4_5w/VatfKwQNUBI/AAAAAAAAXCQ/AgVE3IgBslA/s1600/tourism.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yeRSdxu4_5w/VatfKwQNUBI/AAAAAAAAXCQ/AgVE3IgBslA/s640/tourism.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
</div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>There is not a lot new here, of course, and the rapid decline of engineering construction has evidently been in the post for some time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although it is generally reported that a decline in construction is a "bad thing", it is also clear that Australia couldn't go on building mines for ever - at some stage they need to produce exports. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Reductio ad absurdum</em>, if any decline in construction activity is bad, then Australia would've been better off not having a mining boom in the first place.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the rising<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/city-versus-regional-jobs-divide-widens" target="_blank"> </a>levels of regional unemployment reported over the past week represent compelling evidence that many resources-influenced regions are set to be hit hard by declining demand in the years ahead.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand the largest capital cities are benefiting from a boom in residential construction in particular together with the associated multiplier effect.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One consequence of this is that certain inner city areas will evidently end up with an oversupply of apartments, particularly of high rise stock. Unit developments marketed overwhelmingly to investors may include those to avoid.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Construction activity declines in the regions: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Statistics fatigue</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've been suffering from quite heavily from a case of DSF recently - Demographic Statistics Fatigue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After putting the data series on hold for months, the statistics bureau has been releasing monthly data in rapid-fire succession in recent weeks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A bit like London buses, you wait seemingly ages for one to come along, and then...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyway, we're nearly up to speed now with the May 2015 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1May%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> figures having been released.</div>
<div>
<br>Rather than re-cap on old ground too much, I'll just make four short observations here, starting with...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Migration slowing</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>Firstly, net overseas migration on a rolling annual basis has continued to slow through 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the economy moving through something of a sticky patch, population growth in Australia slowed from a massive 396,200 in calendar year 2013 to a somewhat more sedate 330,200 in 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures suggest that net overseas migration into Australia will be slower again in 2015.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P2laFJ2BRIQ/VbCdbx7Jo9I/AAAAAAAAXHc/vimFTm3OtTQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>While property observers in particular seem to love to see rampant headcount growth at any cost, the reduced population growth rate of 1.4 per cent that we have seen through 2014 has had one major benefit in particular.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And that benefit is that over past year the economy has been stacking on new jobs faster - much faster - than the rate of population growth - with an employment growth rate of 1.9 per cent, or just shy of 225,000 new jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, since October alone the economy has added more than 205,000 new jobs, which in turn has seen the rate of total employment growth over recent months romping along at nearly <strong><em>twice </em></strong>the rate of the growth in population.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps unsurprisingly, therefore, the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.3% at the beginning of the year to 6.0 per cent.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The latest Reserve Bank Board Meeting Minutes suggested that we may even see the unemployment rate falling further from this point, thereby contradicting earlier forecasts which had expected unemployment to run up to a peak of 6.5% in this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And long may this particular dynamic continue.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can read more about employment growth and where it is (and isn't) taking place in Australia here. </div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Rebalancing underway</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian dollar has now declined from a mining-boom-inspired peak of around 110 US cents to below 74 cents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that the Aussie dollar will need to fall further too, in order to help the rebalancing of the economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This depreciation of the currency will have a major impact on demographic trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In short, fewer and fewer Aussies will be inclined to travel and holiday overseas, while more and more folk from foreign fields will see Australia as an attractive destination for a visit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, this enormous benefit to the tourism services industry is already well underway.</div>
<div>
<br>While it may sound like jargon, the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals has declined to its lowest level in years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In plain English, more tourists are now coming to Oz, and fewer Aussies are taking overseas trips.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s1600/a6.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-amAhvKUtOUs/VbChJ_9a81I/AAAAAAAAXIE/iIONagTCWqc/s640/a6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Looked at another way, the number of short term arrivals into Australia has blazed well past 7 million for the first time on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And while the tide has only turned slowly to date, fewer Aussies are now electing to take overseas trips. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The two lines representing these trends on the chart will meet again, possibly sooner than we think, and in time Australia will once again see a net inflow of short term demographic movements.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s1600/a2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZLJHtYv4c5A/VbCdb5AdEcI/AAAAAAAAXHw/CXxv0GdI6RA/s640/a2.jpg" width="640" height="284"></a></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Chinese...and Kiwi visitors!</span></strong></p>
<div>The most notable of all demographic trends has been the incredible explosion in Chinese visitors to Australia, an obvious precursor to what lies ahead in terms of permanent migration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the last year there have been 1.25 million visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and the latest data suggests that these extraordinary figures are set to accelerate plenty higher still in due course.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s1600/a3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pgaRYzF4V4o/VbCdbz-kJqI/AAAAAAAAXHY/QczN1Dsy7Rk/s640/a3.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Chinese migrants are settling in Australia too, with 18,550 settlers in the year to May - essentially as high a figure as we have seen to date - while there were also a record 19,930 settlers hailing from India over the same 12 month period.</div>
<div>
<br>Watch this space, as these numbers are growing apace.</div>
<p><span>Indeed, the number of settlers hailing from Asia is now overwhelming compared to the numbers from all other continents - outnumbering European migrants by a ratio of five to one, for example.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Much has been made of the rapidly diminishing numbers of settlers from Oceania (essentially New Zealand), with permanent migrants effectively having halved since 2012. </span></p>
<div>There are also ever fewer Britons emigrating to Australia at present as the UK economy has become an "incredible job-creating machine" over the past few years.<br><br>
</div>
<div>For all that, it's worth noting that there were well over 1.25 million short-term arrivals from New Zealand over the past year - a record high - so it's hardly all one way traffic, bro.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s1600/a5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j2_ZEM-cr5A/VbCddFNBaPI/AAAAAAAAXHs/qZZIxA2adOA/s640/a5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a><br><br></p>
<div>At the same time there were also a record 567,100 American visitors enjoying the turnaround in exchange rate in Australia over the past year...the delayed Oprah effect.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record foreign students</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Recent data from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) liaison projects a huge ramp up in the number of foreign students in Australia over the years ahead, one of Australia's fast-growing "export" industries.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>In fact, this is already happening, with Chinese students playing a major role here too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The first quarter of 2015 witnessed record enrolments of foreign students in Australia.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s1600/a4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_yQJnV4-_2c/VbCdcgG3JfI/AAAAAAAAXHk/HTPWS2Z482s/s640/a4.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The RBA data also confirmed that most foreign students are overwhelmingly bound for Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The main themes here are that we can expect population growth in 2015 again to be slower than it has been in recent years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This slowdon has clearly had a positive effect on the unemployment rate to date, and it is hoped that if the economy continues to add jobs at the pace it has been since October the unemployment rate may fall into a range with a "5 handle".</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The other obvious theme here which stands out is the sheer dominance of migration from Asia, a story which is only set to grow in Australia over the decades ahead.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The role of Chinese investment in Australia in particular is set to be very material over the next five years.</div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

Foreign student numbers and other demographic property investor trends: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>It is becoming more common for generation Y to move to inner city or CBD areas and purchase properties using their family’s home equity, according to founder of Sydney-based Dream Design Do, buyer's agent Zaki Ameer.</p>
<p>“Upon finishing their studies, young adults find that their place of employment is located in the CBD, as well as all the amenities they want to access, such as nightlife, entertainment, and retail offerings,” says Ameer.</p>
<p>“In Sydney, these locations are typically the eastern suburbs and the inner city, and in Brisbane its Newstead and Fortitude Valley.”</p>
<p>“Property is priced way outside of capabilities of the salary of a career starter, so purchasing a property in the desired location of these Gen Y’s is impossible.”</p>
<p>This is forcing young people to draw on their family home equity which is becoming one of the easiest pathways for young people to tap into the property market, said Ameer.</p>
<p>“In many cases, the family home is already paid for, which creates substantial security when applying for the loan”.</p>
<p>“Provided the youngster is gainfully employed, purchasing in the area where it’s all happening is right within his/her foreseeable future.”</p>
<p>According to Ameer this option was not possible for past generations. The parents of today are likely to work longer and are not keen on downsizing or moving to a retirement complex for some years.</p>
<p>“Their parents do not see themselves as old, and therefore are in no hurry to sell the family home. They don’t want to live among retired people or senior citizens, and more than likely are perfectly happy in the family home surrounded by families and young people.”</p>
<p>Ameer said parents could use their children’s move to the city as an investment opportunity.</p>
<p>However, if parents aren’t in a position to draw down on their equity another option is renting which Ameer says is costly but manageable.</p>
<p>If renting is also too expensive and they are still keen to enter the property market, they may purchase a property in a cheaper area, and then work on building equity on that property so that they can buy in their target area in the future.</p>
<p>According to Ameer, another option is taking up employment in a different city where property and living cost is cheaper.</p>
<p>“In their 20s, they probably do not have a lot of personal responsibilities, and are more easily able to relocate,” he said.</p>
<p>“They will see it as an adventure; to work and live in another state than where they grew up, and also often take the opportunity to establish themselves when they are there, by purchasing property that is now affordable for them.”</p>
</body></html>

owisniewski-RiYLqnXfKH

Young buyers leveraging family home equity to afford inner city purchases: Buyer's agent

<html><body>
<p>Hi Margaret,</p>
<p>Can I move out from my own unit and rent a bigger place to live and claim my unit as an investment unit?</p>
<p>Kind regards,</p>
<p>Ramin</p>
<p><em><br></em><em>See Margaret Lomas' answer on the next page.</em></p>
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<p>Hi Ramin,</p>
<p>You can move out of your principal place of residence, rent out your former home and claim all expenses and interest costs as a tax deduction as soon as it becomes available for rental, and as long as you also declare the income you receive. </p>
<p>If you don’t have another property that you can apply your principal place of residence exemption to (for example, if you rent where you live) then you can have up to six years exemption from capital gains tax too, at the end of which you will need to either move back in, or sell.</p>
<p>Whether you <em>should</em> rent it out or not is another thing entirely.  Here are some things to consider:</p>
<ol>
<li>If the loan on your home is presently quite low, and the one on any new family home you intend to buy is larger, then potentially you might be upside down from a financial perspective.  As your own home is non- deductible, then the interest repayments might be a high, non- deducible amount while those on your newly created investment property would be low, and a taxable profit situation may result. In this case it may be better to sell the family home while it is still capital gains tax free, use the proceeds to buy your new home with a low loan, and then use the equity to get a fully deductible loan to buy an investment property elsewhere.<br><br>
</li>
<li>It’s rare that people happen to live in an up and coming hotspot – therefore keeping the current home may not be the best investment.  It’s easy to think that you live in a great area but the reality is that it might not have the fundamentals required to perform well from both a yield and growth perspective.  Therefore, keeping it becomes an opportunity cost or not buying a better investment in a better performing area.<br><br>
</li>
<li>It can be very difficult to watch a tenant move into a home that was once your pride and joy.  It’s a fact that it simply won’t be treated how you want it to, and your emotional attachment may make you a bad landlord!</li>
</ol>
<p>I have rarely seen the best option being to keep a former Principal Place of Residence. At this stage you need some good advice from a qualified property investment adviser who can help you make this decision as a part of a complete strategy which considers all of your financial and investing needs, rather than just this single, short term decision.</p>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p>Margaret</p>
<p><em><em>Have a property question? <a href="mailto:askmargaret@propertyobserver.com.au" target="_blank">Ask Margaret!</a></em></em></p>
</body></html>

mlomas-KC9MUPZ6Ca

Ask Margaret: Can I claim my unit as an investment if I move out?

<html><body>
<p><span>When the Head Teller at the Reserve Bank of Australia dropped the cash rate to a record low of 2.00% this week the Head Cashier AKA Joe Hockey immediately started bellowing "Australians – spend – spend – spend."</span></p>
<p><span>So let me let you in on a secret Joe – Australians are spending up big, it’s just that they are using the online loophole where they don’t have to pay you GST. The other problem is that following the Global Financial Crisis many Australians (to save money) reverted back to paying cash for services simply because that way they get a significant discount.</span></p>
<p><span>Naturally those who have negatively geared their properties don’t engage in the cash for services given they need the receipts in order to gain their much required tax reduction. I guess that given nearly all developed countries have a tax structure where you do pay a tax when you sell the family home, however all monies spent – mortgage, maintenance and improvements – are a tax deduction. So I hope now that you can understand why GST receipts are in decline.</span></p>
<p><span>When the GST was introduced nearly 15 years ago a comparative analysis was undertaken to see what the online shopping receipts were likely to be for purchases under $1,000. The analysis which in all probability was done using a Commodore 64 with a flashy floppy disc drive found that it would cost as much to collect the GST on these purchases so the plan was shelved.</span></p>
<p><span>Today Australians are all over <a href="https://www.ozsale.com.au/default.aspx?cid=10" target="_blank">OZSALE</a> and <a href="https://www.dealsdirect.com.au/" target="_blank">DealsDirect</a> to name just two who just happen today to be hugely successful online businesses that turn over hundreds and hundreds of millions each year. According to the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) latest Online Retail Sales Index – Australians spent a record (yes record) $16.6 billion online in the year to January 2015. Given that the vast majority would be sales with no GST payable that’s at least $1.500 billion in missing revenue each year – now that’s embarrassing.</span></p>
<p><span>Deloitte has just readjusted the budget projections to take into account the latest economic news where last year’s budget deficit was $48.5 billion. Deloitte is predicting this year’s deficit will be $5.5 billion worse than predicted a year ago, and will be close to $45.9 billion. All will be revealed next week but rest assured it will be a shocker – although it’s difficult to agree with increasing the GST when we have all those ‘rivers of gold’ that the federal government is missing simply because they won’t reform.</span></p>
<p><span>Just as embarrassing was the announcement last week by Prime Minister Tony Abbott that foreign investors who have purchased illegally in Australia have until the end of November to come forward to avoid criminal charges and severe fines. Now I have no doubt that illegal property acquisitions will be huge in number but how about upgrading from Windows 2003 and start a proper National Property Register which has been promised for years.</span></p>
<p><span>The illegal buying debate does get amusing at times given some are saying that the best method is when buyers attend an auction to bid they must provide identity and that data is recorded – that then will stop illegal buyers. Well, sorry no it won’t. That legislation was brought in 2003/2004 in an effort to stop dummy bidding where records of identification are recorded should the Office of Fair Trading require an investigation. If a party attends an auction and they want somebody to bid on their behalf it is that person bidding who provides the identification not the eventual buyer who is not required to provide any identification – even though they may successfully buy the property.</span></p>
<p><span>Any buyers who have purchased illegally would now be contacting their respective legal representatives and immediately transferring ownership into the name of an Australian resident – the federal government has given them a six month window to conform and that’s based on the illegal owners coming forward. Brilliant plan that one!</span></p>
<p><span>With the Head Cashier now dutifully accepting the pseudo role of Housing Minister the forensic search for illegal purchasers across Australia has begun in earnest. Maybe Joe should spend a week of work experience at the NSW government who just collected more than $5.000 million from those naughty first home buyers who illegally applied for grants. Going back three years and with nearly 1,400 investigations they found 478 first home buyers who were forced to repay their illegal grants. A spokesman for the NSW Office of State Revenue said it routinely conducted ‘’random and targeted audits matching and data mining.”</span></p>
<p><span>All that Joe Hockey needs to do is find a way to get hold of that data and do a targeted audit through his Australian Taxation Office audits plus some additional data mining using stamp duty records.</span></p>
<p><span>Why is it that Canberra just doesn’t see the billions they lose each year from GST online sales and why it’s so easy to set up a National Property Register?</span></p>
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Chaos in Canberra but that’s not unusual: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<div class="nN-whiteStrip">
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Origin Energy chief executive Grant King and his wife Jenny have a $1.7 million price on their redundant Pittwater retreat.</span></p>
</div>
<div id="content" class="span-16 article">
<div class="articleBody">
<p>The Neutral Bay couple now own a pricier Palm Beach beachfront. </p>
<p><a href="https://palmbeach.ljhooker.com.au/33MF6Z/11-coasters-retreat-coasters-retreat" target="_blank">The waterfront reserve Coasters Retreat cottage </a>was bought it in 1995 for $307,500 before its extensive renovation and extension. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Accessed only by boat or a regular ferry service from Palm Beach, Noel Nicholson, of LJ Hooker Palm Beach, has the listing.</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News