Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.

Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.

The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" />

“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.

“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”

Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.

The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" />

St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.

More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.

NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.

They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.

The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.

Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.

Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]

Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.

“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.

Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]

Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.

“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]

Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]

Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Perth market is – at last - showing solid signs of recovery from five years of dogged downturn. Hotspotting's Autumn survey of sales activity has found 51 suburbs with rising demand, up from 34 six months ago.
In the five years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys, there has been only one other quarter with more rising markets.
This occurred early in 2019, when Perth appeared on the road to revival before it was snuffed out by the impending Federal Election, the Banking Royal Commission and overwhelming media negativity.
Now the recovery in the WA capital is back on track, with the city's middle market leading strongly and some of the first-home-buyer markets starting to show vitality. A significant reduction in vacancies and consequent uplift in rents is underpinning the resurgence.
Three precincts stand-out as the market leaders – the municipalities of Stirling, Joondalup and Wanneroo, which jointly have half of Perth's 51 rising markets. These areas have been among the most resistant to the prolonged downturn and it's not surprising to see them at the forefront of the upturn.
We have previously commented that the Stirling LGA has been a "sterling performer" amid Perth's down market. And now it is the leading precinct in the recovery: our Autumn survey had identified nine suburbs with rising sales activity and numerous others with steady demand. The suburb of Dianella (median price $555,000) has lifted quarterly sales from 99 to 101 to 108 to 110 to 121 to 126 over the past 18 months.
In the north of the city, regular leader Joondalup and neighbouring Wanneroo both have eight suburbs with rising momentum. Joondalup is consistently among the most resilient of the Perth markets, boosted by excellent infrastructure and a cluster of good suburbs with attractive pricing. Quarterly sales in Hillarys have been 47-50-50-54-55-58-63.
Wanneroo is one of WA's leading population growth areas and a provider of new suburbs and housing estates which attract younger buyers. The evolving suburb of Alkimos has recorded quarterly sales of 32-35-38-46 over the past year.
Closer to the inner city, Cockburn continues to stand out as a solid performer. It has six rising suburbs and seven others with consistent buyer demand.
One precinct that is usually prominent but currently less so is the Melville LGA. It currently has just three rising suburbs and there has been a noticeable falloff in some of the more upmarket suburbs in this precinct. Median prices have dropped in million-dollar suburbs like Applecross (down 11%), Bicton (down 16%) and Ardross (down 14%).
We're starting to see some revival towards the bottom end of the market. Wanneroo is one of the market leaders and the Rockingham LGA in the south, which has not featured in any major way in our reports over the past couple of years, is now showing signs of rising.
Other affordable precincts, however, are yet to spark to life. LGAs like Canning, Gosnells and Armadale have lots of plateau markets – where sales activity is steady but well below the peak levels – and as yet no suburbs with rising sales activity. And prices remain down.
Overall, the Perth is showing strong indications of recovery in terms of sales activity, vacancies and rental growth – but it has yet to translate into widespread uplift in prices.
Only 22% of suburbs have recorded annual growth in median house prices and just 30% of suburbs have had annual increases in median apartment prices.
The areas where the best growth has occurred are largely middle market areas, with the Stirling LGA particularly prominent.
Stirling suburbs with annual median price growth well above average for Perth include Carine (up 6%), Woodlands (7%) and Inglewood units (9%), but the market leader is Wembley Downs (up 16%).
Prices are still dropping in downmarket areas like the LGAs of Canning, Gosnells, Kwinana and Armadale. Examples include the suburbs of Armadale (-11%), Bentley (-11%), Cannington (-11%), Ferndale (-10%), Gosnells (-10%), Kelmscott (-15%), Leda (-10%) and Medina (-15%).
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Perth property market finally showing signs of recovery in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers. 
My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.
Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?
Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.
Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?
I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.
Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?
Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.
Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?
I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.
Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?
If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.
Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?
I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities. 
Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.
Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.
Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.  This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.  If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.
I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.
What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?
I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.
Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?
It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis. 
Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?
That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.
What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?
One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).
My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.  What’s your advice on selling now. 
No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender. 
If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?
A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia's trade balance is now falling away. In fact, it was already tailing away by the end of February.
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Coal exports were dropping away in the early months of 2020.
 
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xILeCnbw360/XoxjhNrg4gI/AAAAAAAA1I8/_YE1hMJWV5A8JbIEaqS5y5KyO7YFa1_oQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IT2.jpg" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xILeCnbw360/XoxjhNrg4gI/AAAAAAAA1I8/_YE1hMJWV5A8JbIEaqS5y5KyO7YFa1_oQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/IT2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1369"></a>
And commodity export values had rolled over. <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XinURAg-fLg/XoxjhIC658I/AAAAAAAA1JA/7IOfS1zHzgcbMnLHiaYwpBlodZB4CfuOwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IT3.jpg" style="font-size: 12.16px;"></a>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XinURAg-fLg/XoxjhIC658I/AAAAAAAA1JA/7IOfS1zHzgcbMnLHiaYwpBlodZB4CfuOwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IT3.jpg" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XinURAg-fLg/XoxjhIC658I/AAAAAAAA1JA/7IOfS1zHzgcbMnLHiaYwpBlodZB4CfuOwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/IT3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1441"></a>
Worryingly, even in February services credits were hammered, as tourism began to dry up.
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FpYKdHb0Tn4/Xoxjh8WkNAI/AAAAAAAA1JE/BLjF-zHbAN4U6BUBPBbalg5wG7WV-LYiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IT4.jpg" style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FpYKdHb0Tn4/Xoxjh8WkNAI/AAAAAAAA1JE/BLjF-zHbAN4U6BUBPBbalg5wG7WV-LYiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/IT4.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1364"></a>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The Reserve Bank didn't sugar-coat anything in its Minutes today, predicting a sharp contraction in growth and a substantial rise in unemployment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA noted that financial markets have been operating somewhat more effectively, partly thanks to central bank measures around the world, with a starburst of co-ordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus coming down the pipe. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Borrowing costs for some new borrowers are declining, but note that these trends impact borrowers on a case by case basis, and in some respects lending standards and assessments have been tightening and becoming more conservative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Australia's trade balance is falling away: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers often fixate on the idea that individual suburbs will do better than their neighbours. I’m constantly asked for my opinion of one suburb or another, on the basis that the target location has special qualities and it will out-perform others.
The reality is that it’s rare for one suburb to star while its neighbours under-perform. Market performance tends to happen in clusters, with a group of suburbs with similar qualities being influenced by the same factors, such as a major new piece of infrastructure.
So at Hotspotting we tend to think in terms of Local Government Areas. Our quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index focus primarily on municipalities, looking for patterns of growth within clusters of suburbs.
The list below, my estimation of the leading LGAs in the nation for rising buyer demand, may surprise because of the number of precincts within Adelaide that feature – but if you study the numbers and the trends, it’s evident that Adelaide is the most consistent of markets and has more momentum that other capital cities.
It has a number of precincts with above-average price growth and the potential for future strong performance.
Here, then, is my national top 10 municipalities in terms of growth momentum (listed in alphabetical order):-
Belconnen ACT 
I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in Australia, with the nation’s highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment. It is challenging Victoria for the No.1 ranking on population growth, it has low vacancies and it often leads on rental growth. The Belconnen District is Canberra’s No.1 jurisdiction for suburbs with rising sales activity. This precinct has a number of affordable suburbs, vacancies are well below 1%, rental yields are solid and some suburbs have grown their median prices 6-7% in the past 12 months. 
Bendigo VIC 
Bendigo is now the leading market in Victoria in terms of the number of suburbs with rising demand, having overtaken other strong markets like Geelong and Ballarat. It’s attracting both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne, chasing affordability and/or better rental yields in a growth centre. Many Bendigo suburbs have median prices in the $300,000s, emphasising the city’s affordability. Bendigo is rising because of its own inherent strengths - including a strong and diverse economy - and its strong links to Melbourne. 
Brisbane North QLD 
The Brisbane North precinct (the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area) is the most active part of the Brisbane market, which is poised for stronger growth. This middle-ring area has 10 suburbs with rising sales demand, including Alderley where quarterly sales have been 28-37-48-50-52 in the past year or so: its median prices have risen 5% for houses and 22% for units. Other growth suburbs include Boondall, Chermside West, Everton Park, Kedron, McDowall, Sandgate, Stafford, Stafford Heights and Wavell Heights. These are all middle-market areas with median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. 
Charles Sturt SA 
The Charles Sturt LGA extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beaches and includes a range of good suburbs, including eight where sales activity is rising steadily. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum. Good price growth is happening in this area, including Henley Beach South (median house price up 15% to $985,000). 
Joondalup WA 
The Joondalup LGA continues to be a stand-out for its steadiness and resilience against the Perth downturn and is poised to lead the city’s market recovery. It now has eight suburbs with rising sales momentum, which makes it No.1 in Perth and among the best of the nation’s LGAs. The suburbs of this LGA are based around the Joondalup CBD, which is a centre for infrastructure and services for Perth’s north. Growth markets include Burns Beach, Duncraig, Edgewater, Greenwood, Joondalup, Mullaloo and Padbury, many of which offer good affordability. 
Marion SA 
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout market. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens. Warradale makes our National Top 50 list of rising suburbs, with quarterly sales of 30-36-41: its median house price of $595,000 is typical of the Marion LGA’s middle-ring affordability. 
Melville WA 
The City of Melville in Perth’s inner south is one of the precincts leading the market fightback in the WA capital. It has seven growth markets and seven consistent performers. Suburbs with rising sales demand include Attadale, Bull Creek, Kardinya, Leeming, Mt Pleasant and Palmyra - some of which are million-dollar suburbs but most are middle-market areas. The star is Willagee, which makes our National Top 50 list with quarterly sales of 25-39-46-51 - and the latest quarter also shows sign of growth in the median house price ($520,000). 
Port Adelaide Enfield SA 
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA emerged in 2018 as an up-and-coming market in the SA capital - and continues to be one of the busiest precincts in Adelaide. Our latest survey reveals seven suburbs with rising activity, including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park. Dernancourt features in our National Top 50 list. This precinct is being boosted by major local events, including the massive program of building vessels for the Australian Navy and ongoing development around the port. The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved here; and a new rail spur is proposed to link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD. 
Onkaparinga SA 
As we have observed many times, Onkaparinga always features prominently in our analysis of the Adelaide market. It currently has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54-63-67-70), which features in our National Top 50 list of supercharged suburbs. Other growth markets include Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford. This LGA ticks a lot of boxes for investors: it has lifestyle, affordability, improved transport links, economic growth drivers, population growth and proximity to major jobs nodes. 
Sunshine Coast QLD 
The Sunshine Coast continues to be the strongest of the Queensland markets, both in terms of rising sales activity and price growth. It’s rising while the more high-profile Gold Coast market is falling. The Sunshine Coast has 10 suburbs with rising buyer demand and another 13 have consistent sales activity. Landsborough and Little Mountain feature on our National Top 50 list. Over 60% of Regional Queensland markets have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the higher growth markets, 21 have increased by more than 10%, and 10 of those 21 locations are Sunshine Coast suburbs, led by Eumundi (28%), Sunshine Beach (15%), Twin Waters (15%) and Wurtulla (15%). 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australia's top 10 property price growth areas in 2019: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who reads my reports will know I’m finding many of the best markets across the nation in Regional Australia.
Most of the strongest markets for sales activity and price growth in the past two years have been found outside the capital cities and the regional areas of Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland continue to present large numbers of growth numbers.
I tell seminar audiences around Australia this is a good thing for investors, because the regions have lower prices and higher rental yields. And, if you choose your locations well, you’re well-placed for good capital growth as well.
It’s a message that most Australians haven’t been getting, because the major research firms focus primarily on the capital cities and major media obsesses over the markets in Melbourne and Sydney.
As I told seminar audiences in Mackay recently, Central Queensland cities will never feature in national media unless there’s a cyclone or flood. Mackay, in fact, is a growth market with low vacancies, strong rentals and rising prices, boosted by positive events in the local economy.
But gradually, it seems, Australia is waking up to the opportunities presented by markets in Regional Australia. 
Agency network PRDnationwide published an August report which predicted that regional centres are set to outperform capital cities over the next six months as affordable prices and higher returns lure buyers.
It said regional areas generally had fared better than metropolitan markets recently and that performance would continue over the second half of the year.
PRDnationwide’s national research manager Asti Mardiasmo said: “Regional areas are more insulated than bigger cities due to the increased infrastructure developments, cheaper house prices and big businesses moving their head offices to regional areas,” Mardiasmo said.
This correlates with Hotspotting research which has identified rising sales activity and good price growth in many of the regional markets in the major eastern states, as well as Tasmania and Western Australia.
The monthly reports of national valuation firm Herron Todd White have also recorded uplift in many of the nation’s regional markets. 
Its latest National Property Clock suggests that markets are rising or recovering in regional centres such as Tamworth, Dubbo, Albury and Bathurst in NSW; Townsville, Mackay, Cairns, Gladstone, the Sunshine Coast, Hervey Bay and Emerald in Queensland; Karratha and Port Hedland in WA; Shepparton and Wodonga in Victoria; and Launceston in Tasmania.
Markets at the bottom of the cycle ahead of recovery include Alice Springs, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
Hotspotting would add a number of key regional cities to the list of strong markets, including Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria, and Orange, Wagga Wagga, Goulburn, Queanbeyan, the Hunter Valley and the Tweed region in NSW.
In the Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index, 30 of the National Top 50 Super-charged Suburbs list were regional locations.
Brisbane-based researcher Propertyology published an analysis of population trends across the nation and suggested the areas where property markets benefited the most from interstate and intrastate migration were regional cities like the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Geelong.
A recent report by the Regional Australia Institute, based on a research project by the University of South Australia and Southern Cross University, urged Australians to consider the regions as an alternative to the major cities - it says many regional towns offer jobs, affordable housing, lifestyle and scope for economic growth, as well as less congestion and a lower cost of living.
The university research project compared wages, employment, congestion and house prices among outer suburban and metropolitan areas, and the regions.
The study found that while wages might be less in the regions compared to cities, job prospects are often at least as good and the cost of living is lower than the big cities. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Australian investors waking up to regional property market opportunities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Rental trends are an important barometer of our major markets largely overlooked by mainstream media.
Media regards changes in median prices and auction clearance rates in the big cities as the measures worth considering, but at Hotspotting we think movements in rents are equally important. They reveal a lot about the state of individual markets and they can serve as a precursor to what’s likely to happen with prices.
History shows that an uplift in prices is often preceded by tight vacancies and strong rises in rentals. This occurred in Sydney in 2011 and 2012, ahead of the start of the price boom in 2013.
Hobart, which has had a mini-boom in the past two years, first experienced a sharp decrease in residential vacancies and significant increases in rentals.
Hobart still has the tightest vacancies in capital city Australia (well under 1%) and it continues to lead on rent increases. We have analysed new data from the two best sources on rental statistics, SQM Research and Domain, and both record strong annual rises for house rents (7.2% SQM and 9.8% Domain) in Hobart and even bigger increases for unit rents (11.6% and 12.9%).
Perth is another standout. A year ago the vacancy rate for the WA capital was 4% but it has reduced steadily over the past 12 months and is now below 3%. Rents have responded, with houses up 4.5% (SQM) or 5.7% (Domain), and units up 4.9% (SQM) and 3.3% (Domain).
If history repeats, this dramatic improvement in the rental market will be followed by uplift in prices, for the first time in five years (the latest SQM data suggests price trends are starting to improve in Perth).
Adelaide too is producing solid rental growth. Both sources have house rents up about 2.6% in annual terms, and apartment rents rising around 3.3%. Adelaide vacancies are hovering around 1%.
Brisbane, where vacancies have recently dropped below the 3% benchmark after several years of over-supply in apartment markets, is now producing moderate rental growth for both houses and apartments.
Both sources agree that Canberra is producing solid growth in rents for apartments, up more than 4%, but Domain records no growth for house rents, while SQM says Canberra house rents have dropped about 2% in the past year. Canberra vacancies are trending higher but remain tight at 1.2%, according to SQM.
Melbourne, where vacancies are generally low, has delivered minor growth in apartment rents, while house rents are largely unchanged.
The two cities with the highest vacancies, Sydney and Darwin, are the only state and territory capitals where rents are significantly down.
In Sydney, where vacancies are trending higher, houses rents are down about 5% in annual terms, while apartment rents have fallen around 4%.
Darwin is showing signs of recovery with rents for houses, with vacancies better in the past year. But apartment rents have dropped 5%, according to both research sources.
Overall, the situation is positive for vacancies and for rents. Sydney is the notable exception.
The improvement in the rental situation for Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane suggests price growth is likely in the near future - especially when considered alongside other factors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Rental trends an important barometer for property market strength: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Apartment markets are leading Melbourne’s recovery from the post-boom downturn. Hotspotting’s Spring survey of sales activity and prices provides strong evidence of revival in Melbourne, with units outdoing houses on price performance.
Our survey has identified 73 markets where median prices have risen in the past 12 months and 79% of them are apartment markets. Examples include Fairfield (up 20%), Glen Huntly (up 15%), Niddrie (up 15%), Toorak (up 17%), West Footscray (up 15%) and Yarranville (up 15%)
The most striking trend is the number of suburbs where the median house price is down but the apartment median is up: 53 suburbs across the Melbourne metro area have this scenario.
Examples include: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Brighton (house median down 18% but unit median up 8%); </li>
<li class="li1">Doncaster East (houses down 13% but units up 9%); </li>
<li class="li1">Heidelberg (houses down 13% but units up 11%; </li>
<li class="li1">Highett (houses down 20% but units up 9%); </li>
<li class="li1">Kensington (houses down 14% but units up 8%); </li>
<li class="li1">Mt Waverley (houses down 14% but units up 6%); </li>
<li class="li1">Ormond (houses down 16% but units up 13%); and </li>
<li class="li1">West Footscray (houses down 10% but units up 15%).</li>
</ul>
Melbourne’s most expensive market, Toorak, provides the most stark contrast: the median house price has dropped 29% to $3.1 million in the past year, while the median apartment price has risen 17% to $985,000.
There are also 48 markets where the median price is down in annual terms but has risen in the latest quarter – and 30 of those (63%) are apartment markets.
Examples include Heidelberg Heights apartments, where the median is down 8% annually but up 4.6% in the latest quarter and South Melbourne apartments, where the median is down 4% annually but up 2.8% in the latest quarter.
There are 129 markets where median prices are down 10% or more in annual terms and 110 of them are house markets – only 19 of the markets with big decline are unit markets. 
Many of those with biggest annual decreases (above 20%) are suburbs where median house prices are above $1 million – or were before the recent decline. They include Box Hill, Box Hill South, Bulleen, Carlton, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East, Highett, Hughesdale, Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East, Mont Albert North, North Melbourne, South Yarra, St Kilda and Toorak.
Hotspotting’s Spring survey of sales activity shows solid evidence of the recovery that has emerged in Melbourne since the Federal Election result in May. The previous two years had shown the decline from the peak of the boom – at first gradual and then dramatic.
The previous eight quarterly surveys had shown the following numbers of suburbs with growth markets (rising numbers of sales): 97, 60, 35, 30, 12, 9, 9, 2 and 0. That pronounced pattern of decline in sales activity heralded the end of Melbourne’s boom, which eventually led to decreases in median prices in the past 18 months.
This latest survey shows the first evidence of turnaround. It identifies 20 suburbs with growing sales activity, with most of them in Melbourne’s middle market. Declining markets still outnumber rising ones, but the number of suburbs with downward patterns in sales activity has reduced from 113 in the Winter survey to 72 in this Spring survey. 
Of the 30 LGAs across the Melbourne metro area, there are four LGAs with at least one growth suburb and no declining ones: Darebin (with Northcote as a growth market), Manningham (Templestowe and Donvale), Moonee Valley (Ascot Vale) and Nillumbik (Diamond Creek and Eltham). 
Other Middle Melbourne areas with growth markets include the LGAs of Kingston (Moorabbin and Mordialloc), Moreland (Brunswick East and Oak Park) and Bayside (Hampton and Sandringham).
Most of the suburbs with rising sales trajectories have median house prices in the range from $800,000 to $1.2 million.
While the number of suburbs with declining activity is less than the previous survey, there are precincts where serious decline remains evident – many of them outer ring areas which had previously showed resilience against the post-boom downturn. They include the LGAs of Mornington Peninsula, Melton, Hume, Wyndham and Casey.
Some of the more upmarket areas also continue to struggle including the LGAs of Glen Eira, Melbourne and Whitehorse. 
Some municipalities demonstrate the folly of generalisation about property markets, with a range of contrasting scenarios playing out within the one precinct. The LGAs of Brimbank, Kingston and Whittlesea all have suburbs with diverse outcomes: some rising, some plateau, some consistency and some declining. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Apartment markets leading Melbourne's real estate recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/02/vic-closes-in-on-full-employment" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> </a>
<div id="post-body-310214148269562303" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Wages tick along</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More wages weakness reported in the December 2018 quarter, though I doubt it'll be enough to move the needle for the Reserve Bank's view too much. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wages growth was +0.6 per cent for the private sector, and +0.6 per cent for the public sector, seasonally adjusted, decimal point quibbles aside. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual growth in private sector wages of +2.29 per cent was still plenty slower than in the public sector at +2.53 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this was the 'fastest' annual pace of growth in private sector - if you can justifiably use the word fast in this context - in the four years since December 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it's also well ahead of headline inflation, which could feasibly sink to just 1½ per cent next quarter on lower fuel prices. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nBZjMNpaef8/XG0O7o2sr4I/AAAAAAAAulA/VZ8K7fIX80EqIqcd4CJw4MWLe2mV9yFEwCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nBZjMNpaef8/XG0O7o2sr4I/AAAAAAAAulA/VZ8K7fIX80EqIqcd4CJw4MWLe2mV9yFEwCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1436"></a></div>
 <div>As noted here previously (h/t Justin Smirk, Westpac) Victoria has been creating a thunderous volume of job openings and is nipping along nicely towards full employment, so wages will almost certainly pick up here. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MkBSZfoxosY/XG0O8haXWeI/AAAAAAAAulI/oH4WaHmCGAAdtoZwbf9GSyZRrOTO1xxdQCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MkBSZfoxosY/XG0O8haXWeI/AAAAAAAAulI/oH4WaHmCGAAdtoZwbf9GSyZRrOTO1xxdQCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
 <div>Indeed, at the state level for all sectors Victoria (+2.7 per cent) and New South Wales (+2.4 per cent) have accounted for most of the improvement since the nadir, while sprightly Tasmania (+2.6 per cent) is resurgent from a low base. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1393"></a></div>
 <div>Not much joy here in Western Australia, though we should acknowledge that WA has seen by some margin the greatest increase in wages over the past two decades, so a bit of post-boom payback was perhaps due. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1371"></a></div>
 <div>At the industry level the strongest wages growth was seen in healthcare and social assistance (+2.8 per cent), and electricity, gas, water, and waste (+2.8 per cent), while the weakest growth was in IT &amp; Telcos (+1.6 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Still pretty sluggish overall, but skilled job vacancies came in at a near 7-year high today, so there's still probably just enough evidence that the jobs market might pull through, provided credit flows a bit more freely in 2019. 
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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More wage weakness but VIC close in on full employment

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Some economists are concerned about the “wealth effect” of falling property prices. They need not be concerned about that. 
What should concern them is their disturbing lack of knowledge about residential real estate markets. They have misunderstood what’s happening with prices in the many different markets around Australia.
Bill Evans, high-profile economist from Westpac, is one of those who think “falling property prices” will affect consumer spending. He thinks the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut the official interest rate a couple of times this year because of this hypothetical impact of falling property prices.
Mainstream media, as if so often sadly the case, have given great credibility to these forecasts. Journalists have forgotten that Westpac, until last week, was predicting that the cash rate would not change this year and that the next move would be a rise. Now they’ve back-flipped. What does that say about their forecasting?
But the big issue is the lack of understanding about real estate markets. Like most economists, Evans and his cohorts turn their attention to residential property only occasionally, and, when they do, they generalise. They talk about “the Australian property market” and what’s happening with “Australian property prices”. This is a clue that they lack depth of knowledge.
This kind of generalisation is the curse of real estate consumers across the nation. It’s the source of much of the misinformation that permeates mainstream media and which confounds consumers.
Here’s the difference between those Westpac economists and the Hotspotting team: we spend all day, every day, researching residential markets. They do not.
And here’s what I know to be true: locations where property prices have fallen a lot are in the minority. Most markets around the nation have prices that are rising or are holding firm. 
In Hotspotting’s latest location-by-location analysis of sales activity and prices for every suburb and town across the nation, we have identified a number of “danger” markets – those where demand is falling, prices are down and vacancies are rising.
But these danger locations are greatly outnumbered by those where markets are rising. Our national survey finds only 8.5% of locations are negative – what we classify as “declining” or “danger” markets. By comparison, 20.5% of locations are strongly rising. The vast majority – the big lump in the middle – comprises markets where demand is steady and prices solid.
Here's what economists do: they look at a graph or table which describes “Australian property prices”. This is a figure from someone like CoreLogic which provides an average figure for the change in prices for the capital cities. Currently that’s a minus figure because of the weight of Sydney. So they declare that Australian property prices are falling and that this is a national problem.
Apparently, Australians will be so distressed by this that they’ll stop spending in supermarkets and retail stores. It’s a ludicrous proposition.
In Melbourne, only the top end of the market is sharply down. Undoubtedly, the Tooraks of this world have seen prices falling significantly. But Middle Melbourne is remaining very solid price-wise and the cheaper outer-ring suburbs still have rising prices. Most of the suburbs of humble Melton are up by more than 20%.
That’s why most research sources (not including CoreLogic) have Melbourne prices overall down only moderately or, in one case, slightly up.
Meanwhile, Regional Victoria is going ballistic. Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Officer, Warragul and dozens of other regional cities and towns have rising demand and very strong prices.
Hobart prices are still rising and Regional Tasmania is as buoyant as Regional Victoria. Both those regional markets are being supercharged by demand out of Melbourne.
Canberra is rock solid. As I wrote last week, it’s the strongest real estate economy in the nation and it’s doing the opposite to struggling Sydney.
Likewise, Regional NSW. There are growth markets spread right throughout the state. Newcastle and neighbouring LGAs like Lake Macquarie, Port Stephens and the Hunter Region municipalities have formed the strongest market in NSW in the past 12months.
Other important regional centres are rising, including Orange, Tamworth, Byron Bay, Dubbo and many of the smaller towns. Overall it’s a story of growth, in defiance of the Sydney trend.
Those past their best but still solid include Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and the towns of the Southern Highlands.
Brisbane overall is not rising strongly with prices, but it’s not falling either – and individual pockets are out-performing. It’s not hard to find suburbs where median prices have risen in double digits in the past year.
The Sunshine Coast is Queensland’s strongest market, with top-end suburbs around Noosa particularly buoyant.
Central Queensland locations are recovering from the previous malaise induced by the mining sector, led by the strategic city of Mackay. Others rising from the previous downturn include Emerald, Rockhampton, Dalby, Chinchilla, Moranbah – and we’re now seeing the first evidence of recovery in Gladstone.
Key regional cities like Toowoomba and Cairns have steady markets. Only time will reveal the real estate impacts from Townsville’s floods.
Adelaide is one of the really solid markets in capital city Australia. Demand is steadily rising and, like Brisbane, the city has individual pockets that are out-performing. There’s no sign of falling values here.
Perth has been in downturn for the past four years, but no longer. All the figures show recovery is under way – vacancies down, rents starting to rise, sales activity trending up and the top-end suburbs showing good price growth.
The only markets of significance where major price decline is prevalent are Sydney and Darwin.
Darwin just can’t escape its malaise because the underlying economy is so weak. The Northern Territory is the only state or territory which failed to deliver population growth last year.
Sydney’s situation is heavily documented but very poorly reported. There are plenty of declining markets and more than a few danger ones. But there are still many markets where demand is solid and prices are resilient.
One situation that media has completely overlooked is the defiant performance of the apartment market. Sydney’s gradual decline, which started back in 2016 long before the royal commission and other distractions that economists think important, was precipitated by the market’s reaction of price levels. Affordability became an issue at all levels of the market. 
So now we have a situation where the cheaper products like apartments are still attracting demand and achieving good prices. Throughout inner and middle ring Sydney, there are many dozens of suburbs where the median house price is sharply down but the median apartment price is strongly up.
So where are all these Australians who are so afflicted by falling property prices that they’re going to hide their money under their beds and not spent. Outside of Sydney (but not all of Sydney) and Darwin, they really don’t exist.
And this is reflected in multiple surveys. The latest Westpac poll shows consumer confidence is up and is specifically not affected by all the negative media about house prices. The ME survey indicated most Australians expect house prices to stay solid or to rise this year and the Momentum Wealth survey found investors are planning to buy, with Perth and Brisbane their No.1 targets.
I think these thoughts from veteran real estate analyst Michael Matusik are also relevant: “It is somewhat sobering to find that the majority aren’t that caught up in all the incessant real estate chat. To most a house is their home and not something that needs a lot of day-to-day analysis or comment. The majority just roll their eyes at the daily house price indices. I am in that crowd.”
I, too, am in that crowd. The media and economists like Bill Evans misinterpret and over-estimate the impact of recent price decline on a relatively small number of Australians.
For most of us, a falling property market is simply not part of our day.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Westpac economist Bill Evans has the property market decline wrong: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A Shakespearean character suggested (Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2), as a great way to improve the country: “First thing we do: let’s kill all the lawyers.”
While the idea has merit in 21st Century Australia, I think a better strategy would be to get rid of all the economists. A good method of dispatch would be to push them off a cliff, similar to the September cliff they’re all predicting as the next catastrophe to afflict Australia’s economy.
If there’s a more pointless and over-rated profession anywhere in society, I don’t know about it. These people continue to get paid, and they continue to feature daily in major media with their incessant “warnings”, despite their staggering ability to be wrong with most of their forecasts.
For many of our chattering economists, the meaning of life is their picture in the paper or a short grab on the evening television news. Some exhibit a need for daily exposure. How best to achieve that? Say something sensationally negative – the truth is optional and you can be sure that no journalist will ever check on your track record of getting things right, so credibility is unimportant. Just describing yourself as an economist is enough.
So when the impacts of Covid-19 first became apparent in February and March, the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists began predicting a collapse in real estate prices.
The people I call “the usual suspects”, the economists and independent ranters who always talk down property, began tipping house prices would fall at least 20% and some suggested even 30% or 40%.
Journalists, being the shallow creatures that they are, lapped it all up and rushed to print with sensationally negative headlines, without applying any scrutiny to the forecasters and their motives.
Four months later, some of those forecasters are retracting their earlier predictions. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, always eager to be a real estate pessimist, recently recanted his 20% decline tip and suggested a more moderate outcome.
The boffins at UBS, who seldom see anything positive in real estate, recently admitted they’d got in wrong and that housing markets were holding up a lot better than they thought.
The latest data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research indicates that most of the markets across Australia still have house prices higher than they were at the start of 2020, in defiance of those dire forecasts.
But now the diehard doomsdayers have found a new catastrophe to obsess over: the September cliff.
The theory is that come the end of September, the banks and the federal government will flick a switch and stop supporting Australia.
The trigger here is that JobKeeper is scheduled to run until then and the banks have put a similar deadline on their extension of mortgage payment holidays to borrowers. So, when the government and banks suddenly stop caring about the nation, and themselves, and switch off their support, everything will fall off a cliff. Theoretically.
It’s a convenient scenario for pessimistic economists (is there any other type?) and journalists with a negative mindset (there is definitely no other type).
But there are serious flaws in the theory and I feel confident in suggesting that is simply won’t happen. There will be no cliff for prices to fall off at the end of September.
Here’s what’s wrong with the “September cliff” theory:-
· It assumes that everything depends on JobKeeper and mortgage holidays. It doesn’t – there’s a whole lot more in the mix.
· It assumes the Federal Government will suddenly stop caring about the national economy and simply switch off support in September. They won’t.
· It assumes banks will shoot themselves in the foot by abandoning their customers. They haven’t come this far in supporting their borrower customers to abandon them later.
· It assumes that nothing will change with business and employment between now and 30 September. But a lot is changing already, with restrictions easing, businesses re-opening and jobs re-appearing.
· It overlooks the extraordinary level of stimulus measures in play. Multiple booster measures from all levels of government have been activated and there is more to come. A $72 billion spend on infrastructure provides a prime example of the measures that will generate economic activity and jobs. The $25,000 grant for people to build homes is generating activity that has surpassed all expectations and the economic multiplier effect of residential construction is the second biggest of any industry sector in Australia.
· It overlooks the impact of the ongoing easing of restrictions. Before we get to the doomsday deadline, state borders will be open (most are already, notwithstanding the Victoria situation) and tourism will be pumping again. Australia are revelling in the new freedoms and this will help revive economies. The latest ABS data shows that retail spending is rising again, with a 17% increase in May.
· It overlooks the news that people who sought mortgage holidays are rapidly moving back to making mortgage payments. ANZ said in mid-June that a third of the customers who sought a holiday are already back making payments. The numbers of borrowers resuming payments is growing every week.
· It ignores the extraordinary resilience of real estate markets, which have a history of not only resisting economic downturns but leading national economic recovery. Real estate markets revel in defying the most dire forecasts of the chattering economists.
· It forgets the natural boost to real estate markets from the Spring selling season.
The “September cliff” theory will be forgotten even before we get to September. The people who made those forecasts will have forgotten they made them. For most of the talking heads, it’s nothing more than a soundbite, a publicity opportunity. Some of them don’t even believe their public statements.
It will join an already-long list of predictions that have been proven false since February. Every statistic that has been published to date – whether it be property prices, auction clearances rates, vacancy rates, retail spending, unemployment figures and GDP numbers – has been less dramatic than the media forecasts.
It’s time we stopped listening to the attention-seeking economists whose only objective is to gain media profile by feeding the 24-hour news cycle, with little regard to the consequences.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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